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CourseIDS.33345 lectures

IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis

Prof. Richard de Neufville · Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Start with lecture 1 At MIT OpenCourseWare

About

The course addresses a fundamental issue in system design and management, the need for engineering leaders to recognize uncertainty in the performance of their plans or designs. It presents discounted cash flow (DCF) Excel models, simulation, and decision analysis as primary ways to analyze possible outcomes of design and management strategies. It also addresses how we should analyze possible performance outcomes and cope with risks in demand, requirements, cost, technology, etc.

Lectures

Videos

  1. Unit 2: the Forecast is always wrong, Video 1: Cost Estimates Video
  2. Unit 2: The Forecast is ‘Always’ wrong, Video 2: Demand Forecasts Video
  3. Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 3: Porcupine Graphs Video
  4. Unit 2: The Forecast is "Always" wrong, Video 4: Common Forecasting Process Inherently Flawed Video
  5. Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 5: Flaw of Averages 1-the Concept Video
  6. Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 6: Flaw of Averages 2-the Consequences Video
  7. Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 1: Introduction Video
  8. Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 2: Logic of Analysis Video
  9. Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 3: Recognizing Uncertainty, Simulation Video
  10. Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 4: Adding Flexibility Video
  11. Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 5: Design to Manage Uncertainties Video
  12. Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 6: Flexibility is Win-Win Video
  13. Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 1: Concept—What Is Needed Video
  14. Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 2: Recommended Process Video
  15. Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 3: Outcomes and Target Curves Video
  16. Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 4: Decision Rules and Unit Closure Video
  17. Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 5: Physical Situation Video
  18. Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 6: Simulation and Value Flexibility "on" Project Video
  19. Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 7: Value of Flex "in" Project Video
  20. Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 1: Five Main Drivers—Uncertainty is Most Important Video
  21. Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 2: Economies of Scale Video
  22. Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 3: Discount rate and Learning Promote Video
  23. Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 4: Balancing Overall Effect of Drivers Video
  24. Unit 8: Decision Analysis 1, Video 1: Advantages Video
  25. Unit 8: Decision Analysis 2, Video 2: Decision Trees Video
  26. Unit 8: Decision Analysis 3, Video 3: Constructing Trees Video
  27. Unit 8: Decision Analysis 4, Video 4: Multistage Analysis Video
  28. Unit 8: Decision Analysis 5 Video 5: Retrospective Overview Video
  29. Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 1: Concept of Test Video
  30. Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 2: Value of Test Video
  31. Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 3: Expected Value of Sample Information Video
  32. Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 4: Expected Value of Perfect Information Video
  33. Unit 9: Value of Information 5, Video 5: Is Test Worthwhile? Video
  34. Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 1: Is Optimization Possible? Video
  35. Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 2: Diminishing Marginal Utility Video
  36. Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 3: Conditions for Value Function Video
  37. Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 4: Consequences Video
  38. Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 5: There's No Valid Group Utility Video
  39. Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 6: Dominated Solutions Video
  40. Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 7: Robustness and Take-aways Video
  41. Unit 11: De-Salt and LNG Cases, Video 1: De-Salt Plant Australia Video
  42. Unit 11: LNG Case 1, Video 2: Introduction Video
  43. Unit 11: LNG Case 2, Video 3: Initial Analysis Video
  44. Unit 11: LNG Case 3, Video 4: Learning effects Video
  45. Unit 11: LNG Case 4, Video 5: Final Analysis Video

Syllabus and materials

At MIT OpenCourseWare, as the course publishes them.

Credits and licence

Institution
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Department
Institute for Data, Systems, and Society
Teacher
Prof. Richard de Neufville
Term
Fall 2021
Level
Graduate
Language
English
Subjects
Engineering, Art, architecture and design
Source
MIT OpenCourseWare
Licence
CC BY-NC-SA 4.0, as MIT OpenCourseWare states it. Non-commercial use only. MIT OpenCourseWare's terms
Attribution
Prof. Richard de Neufville. IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis. Fall 2021. Massachusetts Institute of Technology: MIT OpenCourseWare, https://ocw.mit.edu/. License: Creative Commons BY-NC-SA.
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