Learn · Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
Lecture 2 of 33Week 1
Examples of managing uncertainty and making decisions
Prof. N. Gautam · Syracuse University
Credits and licence
- From
- Decision-Making Under Uncertainty, Syracuse University (at NPTEL)
- Licence
- CC BY-NC-SA, as NPTEL states it. Non-commercial use only.
- Attribution
- NPTEL states: "Distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike / CC BY - NC - SA", beside a BY-NC-SA badge. Coordinated by IIT Madras.
- Who can watch
- Tweens profiles and older. How courses are placed
All the lectures
- Background and relevance
- Examples of managing uncertainty and making decisions
- Risk, uncertainty and variability
- Probability: Events, Conditioning and Total Probability
- Discrete random variables
- Continuous random variables: characterisitcs and examples
- Expected Value: Mean, Variance and Functions
- Multiple Random Variables: Discrete and Continuous
- Criteria, Objectives and Settings for Decisions
- Introduction to one-time decisions
- Solving the secretary problem
- Which option to gamble just once?
- Utility Function
- Nested one-time decisions
- Decision Trees
- Decisions in Game Shows: Final Jeopardy
- Decisions in Game Shows: Monte Hall
- Project Network and Analysis
- Newsvendor Problem: Background, Model and Analysis
- Newsvendor Problem: Example and Proof
- Buffers to Cushion for Fluctuations
- Safety Stock for Inventories
- Safety Stock: Example and Derivation
- Route Planning
- Exploration and Exploitation
- Introduction to sequential decision making
- Costs, Ratings, Options and Choices for both Restaurants
- Two Stage Stochastic Optimization
- Concluding Remarks and Simpson's Paradox
- Markov Chains for Decisions
- DTMC Modeling and Analysis
- Markov Decision Process Set Up
- Analyzing the four policies