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Course11010613433 lectures

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Prof. N. Gautam · Syracuse University

Start with lecture 1 At NPTEL

About

We are often faced with situations where we need to make decisions that have implications for personal and institutional goals. When there is uncertainty involved, we could either go with our gut feeling or take an analytical approach by characterizing the uncertainty, defining an objective, and evaluating the risk/payoffs of choices. This course is about the latter and is presented through the usage of example problem instances.

INTENDED AUDIENCE : Any Interested Learners

PREREQUISITES : Undergraduate course in probability (including topics on random variables and expected value); calculus and algebra

INDUSTRY SUPPORT : Most industries would find this useful (examples in course are in retail, supply chain and hospitality)

Lectures

Week 1

  1. Background and relevance YouTube
  2. Examples of managing uncertainty and making decisions YouTube
  3. Risk, uncertainty and variability YouTube
  4. Probability: Events, Conditioning and Total Probability YouTube
  5. Discrete random variables YouTube
  6. Continuous random variables: characterisitcs and examples YouTube
  7. Expected Value: Mean, Variance and Functions YouTube
  8. Multiple Random Variables: Discrete and Continuous YouTube
  9. Criteria, Objectives and Settings for Decisions YouTube

Week 2

  1. Introduction to one-time decisions YouTube
  2. Solving the secretary problem YouTube
  3. Which option to gamble just once? YouTube
  4. Utility Function YouTube
  5. Nested one-time decisions YouTube
  6. Decision Trees YouTube
  7. Decisions in Game Shows: Final Jeopardy YouTube
  8. Decisions in Game Shows: Monte Hall YouTube
  9. Project Network and Analysis YouTube

Week 3

  1. Newsvendor Problem: Background, Model and Analysis YouTube
  2. Newsvendor Problem: Example and Proof YouTube
  3. Buffers to Cushion for Fluctuations YouTube
  4. Safety Stock for Inventories YouTube
  5. Safety Stock: Example and Derivation YouTube
  6. Route Planning YouTube
  7. Exploration and Exploitation YouTube

Week 4

  1. Introduction to sequential decision making YouTube
  2. Costs, Ratings, Options and Choices for both Restaurants YouTube
  3. Two Stage Stochastic Optimization YouTube
  4. Concluding Remarks and Simpson's Paradox YouTube
  5. Markov Chains for Decisions YouTube
  6. DTMC Modeling and Analysis YouTube
  7. Markov Decision Process Set Up YouTube
  8. Analyzing the four policies YouTube

Syllabus and materials

At NPTEL, as the course publishes them.

Credits and licence

Institution
Syracuse University
Department
Management
Teacher
Prof. N. Gautam
Level
Undergraduate
Language
English
Subjects
Business and management
Source
NPTEL
Licence
CC BY-NC-SA, as NPTEL states it. Non-commercial use only. NPTEL's terms
Attribution
NPTEL states: "Distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike / CC BY - NC - SA", beside a BY-NC-SA badge. Coordinated by IIT Madras.
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