Intelligence: a forecast
US jobless claims, next week's figure
The forecast an estimate, not a fact
US initial claims for unemployment insurance (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending Saturday 14 November 2026 will be between 189,254 claims and 210,676 claims with 80% probability, and between 194,613 claims and 205,442 claims with 50% (median 200,000 claims). The chance it is above 200,000 claims, its value for the week ending 7 November 2026, is 44%.
| Chance below | Value |
|---|---|
| 5% | 187,251 claims |
| 10% | 189,254 claims |
| 25% | 194,613 claims |
| 50% | 200,000 claims |
| 75% | 205,442 claims |
| 90% | 210,676 claims |
| 95% | 215,119 claims |
The chance it is above 200,000 claims: 44%.
The facts it rests on
US initial claims for unemployment insurance, weekly: 200,000 claims for 7 November 2026, as published by US Employment and Training Administration. Check it at its source. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Its history used: 156 changes from 11 November 2023 to 7 November 2026.
The method and its assumptions
The series' past changes over the same horizon, as proportions, applied to its latest value.
The 156 changes of the series over 7 days from values dated 11 November 2023 to 7 November 2026, taken as proportions; their quantiles (Hyndman and Fan's definition 7) applied to its latest value, 200,000 claims, give the forecast's; the chance of a rise is the share of those changes above zero with one added to each side (Laplace's rule): (68 + 1) / (156 + 2).
How it is resolved and scored
Resolved with the value FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes for the first week on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 30 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.
Disclosures
- Produced by
- Voyage Tracable, LLC, which makes Invisible Network, by the method above, run by the site's server at the daily run. No person chose, edited or saw it before it was published.
- Completed and first published
- 13 November 2026 at 06:03 UTC, at the same moment.
- What it is
- A forecast of a value, with its uncertainty. It is not advice to anyone in particular, and not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything; everyone is shown the same.
- The site's rules
- Nobody connected to the site trades on a forecast before it is published. All the station's rules.
- In the record
- Line 45 of the record, hash
7b6e1c56629385be4d73849ab0a72054254c4bd4d65f0a7f17b05326e4784f90.
Earlier forecasts of this question, the 12 months before
- 11 November 2026 at 12:18 UTC: US initial claims for unemployment insurance (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending Saturday 7 November 2026 will be between 178,845 claims and 200,082 claims with 80% probability, and between 183,832 claims and 194,143 claims with 50% (median 189,000 claims). The chance it is above 189,000 claims, its value for the week ending 31 October 2026, is 44%.