Yours Ask

Intelligence

The station's rules

Rules

  1. Every forecast is made by a stated method from public data, at the daily run at 06:00 UTC, and published the moment it is made. Nobody sees a forecast before it is published, and nobody edits one.
  2. Nobody connected to the site trades in anything a forecast concerns on the strength of a forecast before it is published, or takes a position in order to profit from publishing one.
  3. A forecast of a market price or rate is published only with the producer's declaration of interests, shown on its page word for word. Until there is one, no such forecast is made.
  4. Every visitor is shown the same station. Nothing on it is chosen for a person, a profile, a history or a place, and nothing here is advice to anyone in particular, or an invitation to buy, sell or hold anything.
  5. No forecast is made without a rule saying how it will be resolved, and every forecast is resolved and scored by that rule, including those that miss. None is ever changed or taken out of the record.
  6. Facts and forecasts are kept apart: a fact is a value a source published, with its date, its source and when it was read; a forecast is labelled as an estimate, with its method and its assumption.

Who produces the forecasts

Voyage Tracable, LLC, which makes Invisible Network. The methods were written for the site; the server runs them on its own each day.

No declaration of interests has been made yet, so no forecast of a market price or rate is being made.

The record, and how to check it

The record is a text file with a line per entry: an observation, a forecast, a resolution or a day's run. Each line is the entry's hash, a space, and the entry in JSON. The hash is the SHA-256, in lowercase hex, of the previous line's hash (64 zeros before the first line), a line feed, and the entry's JSON exactly as written. Change or remove any line and every hash after it stops matching.

How forecasts are scored

Brier score
For a chance p of something that then happens (1) or not (0): (p − outcome)². 0 is perfect; always saying 50% scores 0.25.
CRPS
The continuous ranked probability score of a forecast distribution, in the quantity's own unit, approximated from its seven quantiles (twice their mean quantile score). 0 is perfect. It is compared with the same score for saying "no change".
Intervals
Whether the value fell inside the central 50%, 80% and 90% intervals. Over many forecasts these shares should be near 50%, 80% and 90%.
Calibration
How often what was given each chance happened, and how often values fell below each quantile, drawn on the station's page.

The questions and their methods

  • The 10-year US Treasury yield, a week ahead

    Of: 10-year US Treasury yield (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15), a market price or rate.

    The series' past changes over the same horizon, added to its latest value.

    Resolved with the value FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes for the first date on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 30 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.

  • The euro in dollars, a week ahead

    Of: Euro reference rate, US dollars per euro (European Central Bank), a market price or rate.

    The series' past changes over the same horizon, as proportions, applied to its latest value.

    Resolved with the value European Central Bank publishes for the first date on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 30 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.

  • Crude oil (WTI), a week ahead

    Of: West Texas Intermediate crude oil, spot price (US Energy Information Administration), a market price or rate.

    The series' past changes over the same horizon, as proportions, applied to its latest value.

    Resolved with the value FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes for the first date on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 30 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.

  • Natural gas (Henry Hub), a week ahead

    Of: Henry Hub natural gas, spot price (US Energy Information Administration), a market price or rate.

    The series' past changes over the same horizon, as proportions, applied to its latest value.

    Resolved with the value FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes for the first date on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 30 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.

  • US jobless claims, next week's figure

    Of: US initial claims for unemployment insurance, weekly (US Employment and Training Administration).

    The series' past changes over the same horizon, as proportions, applied to its latest value.

    Resolved with the value FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes for the first week on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 30 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.

  • The US unemployment rate, next month's figure

    Of: US unemployment rate, monthly (US Bureau of Labor Statistics).

    The series' past changes over the same horizon, added to its latest value.

    Resolved with the value FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes for the first month on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 45 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.

  • Euro area inflation, next month's figure

    Of: Euro area inflation (HICP, annual rate), monthly (Eurostat).

    The series' past changes over the same horizon, added to its latest value.

    Resolved with the value Eurostat publishes for the first month on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 45 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.

  • Fires detected worldwide, tomorrow's 24 hours

    Of: Fires detected worldwide in the last 24 hours (MODIS) (NASA).

    The series' past changes over the same horizon, as proportions, applied to its latest value.

    Resolved by the station's read of NASA FIRMS (Fire Information for Resource Management System) at its daily run on the target date. Void if the station could not read it that day. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.

  • An extreme US weather alert in effect tomorrow

    Of: US weather alerts of extreme severity in effect (US National Weather Service).

    The share of the station's own past daily reads on which it happened.

    Resolved by the station's read of US National Weather Service (NOAA) at its daily run on the target date: yes if at least one is in effect then. Void if the station could not read it that day. Scored by the Brier score.

  • Current reports (8-K) filed with the SEC, next business day

    Of: Current reports (8-K) filed with the SEC on a business day (US Securities and Exchange Commission).

    The series' past changes over the same horizon, as proportions, applied to its latest value.

    Resolved with the value SEC EDGAR publishes for the first business day on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 10 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.

Sources and their terms