Estimates, not facts: each says what it expects, how likely, by when, from which facts and by which method, and how it will be judged. Each links to its page, with its disclosures.
No forecast is open on this server yet.
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The 10-year US Treasury yield, a week ahead
Waiting for the producer's declaration of interests: a forecast of a market price or rate is published only with one.
The series' past changes over the same horizon, added to its latest value. Resolved with the value FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes for the first date on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 30 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.
Made: 0. Resolved: 0. Mean Brier score: none yet. Mean CRPS: none yet. Better than no change by: none yet. Inside the 80% interval: none yet.
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The euro in dollars, a week ahead
Waiting for the producer's declaration of interests: a forecast of a market price or rate is published only with one.
The series' past changes over the same horizon, as proportions, applied to its latest value. Resolved with the value European Central Bank publishes for the first date on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 30 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.
Made: 0. Resolved: 0. Mean Brier score: none yet. Mean CRPS: none yet. Better than no change by: none yet. Inside the 80% interval: none yet.
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Crude oil (WTI), a week ahead
Waiting for the producer's declaration of interests: a forecast of a market price or rate is published only with one.
The series' past changes over the same horizon, as proportions, applied to its latest value. Resolved with the value FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes for the first date on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 30 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.
Made: 0. Resolved: 0. Mean Brier score: none yet. Mean CRPS: none yet. Better than no change by: none yet. Inside the 80% interval: none yet.
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Natural gas (Henry Hub), a week ahead
Waiting for the producer's declaration of interests: a forecast of a market price or rate is published only with one.
The series' past changes over the same horizon, as proportions, applied to its latest value. Resolved with the value FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes for the first date on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 30 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.
Made: 0. Resolved: 0. Mean Brier score: none yet. Mean CRPS: none yet. Better than no change by: none yet. Inside the 80% interval: none yet.
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US jobless claims, next week's figure
No forecast open: the next comes with the source's next value.
The series' past changes over the same horizon, as proportions, applied to its latest value. Resolved with the value FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes for the first week on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 30 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.
Made: 0. Resolved: 0. Mean Brier score: none yet. Mean CRPS: none yet. Better than no change by: none yet. Inside the 80% interval: none yet.
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The US unemployment rate, next month's figure
No forecast open: the next comes with the source's next value.
The series' past changes over the same horizon, added to its latest value. Resolved with the value FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes for the first month on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 45 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.
Made: 0. Resolved: 0. Mean Brier score: none yet. Mean CRPS: none yet. Better than no change by: none yet. Inside the 80% interval: none yet.
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Euro area inflation, next month's figure
No forecast open: the next comes with the source's next value.
The series' past changes over the same horizon, added to its latest value. Resolved with the value Eurostat publishes for the first month on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 45 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.
Made: 0. Resolved: 0. Mean Brier score: none yet. Mean CRPS: none yet. Better than no change by: none yet. Inside the 80% interval: none yet.
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Fires detected worldwide, tomorrow's 24 hours
Not asked yet: it needs at least 30 daily reads of its own, and the station has 0.
The series' past changes over the same horizon, as proportions, applied to its latest value. Resolved by the station's read of NASA FIRMS (Fire Information for Resource Management System) at its daily run on the target date. Void if the station could not read it that day. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.
Made: 0. Resolved: 0. Mean Brier score: none yet. Mean CRPS: none yet. Better than no change by: none yet. Inside the 80% interval: none yet.
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An extreme US weather alert in effect tomorrow
Not asked yet: it needs at least 30 daily reads of its own, and the station has 0.
The share of the station's own past daily reads on which it happened. Resolved by the station's read of US National Weather Service (NOAA) at its daily run on the target date: yes if at least one is in effect then. Void if the station could not read it that day. Scored by the Brier score.
Made: 0. Resolved: 0. Mean Brier score: none yet. Mean CRPS: none yet. Better than no change by: none yet. Inside the 80% interval: none yet.
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Current reports (8-K) filed with the SEC, next business day
Not asked yet: it needs at least 30 daily reads of its own, and the station has 0.
The series' past changes over the same horizon, as proportions, applied to its latest value. Resolved with the value SEC EDGAR publishes for the first business day on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 10 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.
Made: 0. Resolved: 0. Mean Brier score: none yet. Mean CRPS: none yet. Better than no change by: none yet. Inside the 80% interval: none yet.
