Intelligence: a forecast
The euro in dollars, a week ahead
The forecast an estimate, not a fact
The ECB's euro reference rate in US dollars for Thursday 19 November 2026, or the first day after it with a value, will be between US$ 1.0971 and US$ 1.1203 with 80% probability, and between US$ 1.1018 and US$ 1.1142 with 50% (median US$ 1.1081). The chance it is above US$ 1.1081, its value for 12 November 2026, is 50%.
| Chance below | Value |
|---|---|
| 5% | US$ 1.0940 |
| 10% | US$ 1.0971 |
| 25% | US$ 1.1018 |
| 50% | US$ 1.1081 |
| 75% | US$ 1.1142 |
| 90% | US$ 1.1203 |
| 95% | US$ 1.1242 |
The chance it is above US$ 1.1081: 50%.
The facts it rests on
Euro reference rate, US dollars per euro: US$ 1.1081 for 12 November 2026, as published by European Central Bank. Check it at its source. Source: ECB statistics.
Its history used: 761 changes from 13 November 2023 to 12 November 2026.
The method and its assumptions
The series' past changes over the same horizon, as proportions, applied to its latest value.
The 761 changes of the series over 7 days from values dated 13 November 2023 to 12 November 2026, taken as proportions; their quantiles (Hyndman and Fan's definition 7) applied to its latest value, US$ 1.1081, give the forecast's; the chance of a rise is the share of those changes above zero with one added to each side (Laplace's rule): (380 + 1) / (761 + 2).
How it is resolved and scored
Resolved with the value European Central Bank publishes for the first date on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 30 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.
Disclosures
- Produced by
- Voyage Tracable, LLC, which makes Invisible Network, by the method above, run by the site's server at the daily run. No person chose, edited or saw it before it was published.
- Completed and first published
- 13 November 2026 at 06:03 UTC, at the same moment.
- What it is
- A forecast of a value, with its uncertainty. It is not advice to anyone in particular, and not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything; everyone is shown the same.
- Interests of the producer
- Declared on 2026-11-10 by David Jean Charlot, PhD, owner, for Voyage Tracable, LLC: David Jean Charlot and the companies he controls, Voyage Tracable, LLC among them, hold no position in, and do not trade, US Treasury securities or Treasury futures, the euro against the US dollar, crude oil or natural gas.
- The site's rules
- Nobody connected to the site trades on a forecast before it is published. All the station's rules.
- In the record
- Line 42 of the record, hash
e5dadaaa8e202bc1d68444ac1f84dba708156c79ac19904acebfb3f163204f90.
Earlier forecasts of this question, the 12 months before
- 12 November 2026 at 06:04 UTC: The ECB's euro reference rate in US dollars for Wednesday 18 November 2026, or the first day after it with a value, will be between US$ 1.1016 and US$ 1.1250 with 80% probability, and between US$ 1.1064 and US$ 1.1189 with 50% (median US$ 1.1127). The chance it is above US$ 1.1127, its value for 11 November 2026, is 50%.
- 11 November 2026 at 12:18 UTC: The ECB's euro reference rate in US dollars for Tuesday 17 November 2026, or the first day after it with a value, will be between US$ 1.1103 and US$ 1.1338 with 80% probability, and between US$ 1.1151 and US$ 1.1276 with 50% (median US$ 1.1215). The chance it is above US$ 1.1214, its value for 10 November 2026, is 50%.