Crude oil (WTI), a week ahead

Made and published 11 November 2026 at 12:18 UTC. Open: resolved with the first value from 10 November 2026.

The forecast an estimate, not a fact

The spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil for Tuesday 10 November 2026, or the first day after it with a value, will be between US$ 93.70 a barrel and US$ 106.73 a barrel with 80% probability, and between US$ 96.80 a barrel and US$ 102.68 a barrel with 50% (median US$ 99.84 a barrel). The chance it is above US$ 99.64 a barrel, its value for 3 November 2026, is 51%.

Its distribution: the value is expected below each of these with the chance shown
Chance below	Value
5%	US$ 91.35 a barrel
10%	US$ 93.70 a barrel
25%	US$ 96.80 a barrel
50%	US$ 99.84 a barrel
75%	US$ 102.68 a barrel
90%	US$ 106.73 a barrel
95%	US$ 109.73 a barrel

The chance it is above US$ 99.64 a barrel: 51%.

Target: the first value from 10 November 2026. Void if none by 10 December 2026.

The first forecast of this question.

The facts it rests on

West Texas Intermediate crude oil, spot price: US$ 99.64 a barrel for 3 November 2026, as published by US Energy Information Administration. Check it at its source. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Its history used: 741 changes from 6 November 2023 to 3 November 2026.

Read from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 November 2026 at 12:18 UTC: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO&cosd=2023-07-30; the bytes read had the SHA-256 5e9deb5280b0a8f83d814a255bfc66ac7702fa9b2d94cfc87eccc43b09fda482.

The method and its assumptions

The series' past changes over the same horizon, as proportions, applied to its latest value.

The 741 changes of the series over 7 days from values dated 6 November 2023 to 3 November 2026, taken as proportions; their quantiles (Hyndman and Fan's definition 7) applied to its latest value, US$ 99.64 a barrel, give the forecast's; the chance of a rise is the share of those changes above zero with one added to each side (Laplace's rule): (381 + 1) / (741 + 2).

The assumption: the spread of the series' changes in the window used is the spread of the change to come. Nothing else is used: no news, no other series, no one's judgment.

How it is resolved and scored

Resolved with the value FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes for the first date on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 30 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.

Asked again each time FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes a new value, at the daily run at 06:00 UTC.

Disclosures

Produced by: Voyage Tracable, LLC, which makes Invisible Network, by the method above, run by the site's server at the daily run. No person chose, edited or saw it before it was published.
Completed and first published: 11 November 2026 at 12:18 UTC, at the same moment.
What it is: A forecast of a value, with its uncertainty. It is not advice to anyone in particular, and not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything; everyone is shown the same.
Interests of the producer: Declared on 2026-11-10 by David Jean Charlot, PhD, owner, for Voyage Tracable, LLC: David Jean Charlot and the companies he controls, Voyage Tracable, LLC among them, hold no position in, and do not trade, US Treasury securities or Treasury futures, the euro against the US dollar, crude oil or natural gas.
The site's rules: Nobody connected to the site trades on a forecast before it is published. All the station's rules.
In the record: Line 14 of the record, hash 3946cbda4b6d18be22e9e3067dca66724173968b02f1f20b0e63a01fec040e34.

Earlier forecasts of this question, the 12 months before

None.