The US unemployment rate, next month's figure

Made and published 11 November 2026 at 12:18 UTC. Open: resolved with the first value from 1 November 2026.

The forecast an estimate, not a fact

The US unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) for November 2026 will be between 3.9% and 4.2% with 80% probability, and between 4.0% and 4.2% with 50% (median 4.1%). The chance it is above 4.1%, its value for October 2026, is 26%.

Its distribution: the value is expected below each of these with the chance shown
Chance below	Value
5%	3.6%
10%	3.9%
25%	4.0%
50%	4.1%
75%	4.2%
90%	4.2%
95%	4.3%

The chance it is above 4.1%: 26%.

Target: the first value from 1 November 2026. Void if none by 16 December 2026.

The first forecast of this question.

The facts it rests on

US unemployment rate, monthly: 4.1% for 1 October 2026, as published by US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Check it at its source. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Its history used: 118 changes from 1 November 2016 to 1 October 2026.

Read from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 November 2026 at 12:18 UTC: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=UNRATE&cosd=2016-09-24; the bytes read had the SHA-256 3d76108f1479e6e199b16b92338f134cfd83e36921a3ac2e5b9a90562b38cb6b.

The method and its assumptions

The series' past changes over the same horizon, added to its latest value.

The 118 changes of the series over 28 days from values dated 1 November 2016 to 1 October 2026; their quantiles (Hyndman and Fan's definition 7) added to its latest value, 4.1%, give the forecast's; the chance of a rise is the share of those changes above zero with one added to each side (Laplace's rule): (30 + 1) / (118 + 2).

The assumption: the spread of the series' changes in the window used is the spread of the change to come. Nothing else is used: no news, no other series, no one's judgment.

How it is resolved and scored

Resolved with the value FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes for the first month on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 45 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.

Asked again each time FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes a new value, at the daily run at 06:00 UTC.

Disclosures

Produced by: Voyage Tracable, LLC, which makes Invisible Network, by the method above, run by the site's server at the daily run. No person chose, edited or saw it before it was published.
Completed and first published: 11 November 2026 at 12:18 UTC, at the same moment.
What it is: A forecast of a value, with its uncertainty. It is not advice to anyone in particular, and not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything; everyone is shown the same.
The site's rules: Nobody connected to the site trades on a forecast before it is published. All the station's rules.
In the record: Line 17 of the record, hash 2260f81ac72074e27534dedfbf8e0696990a8863b3e0bbefae000fd06c9e5283.

Earlier forecasts of this question, the 12 months before

None.