Intelligence: a forecast
The 10-year US Treasury yield, a week ahead
The forecast an estimate, not a fact
The 10-year US Treasury yield for Monday 16 November 2026, or the first day after it with a value, will be between 4.75% and 5.01% with 80% probability, and between 4.82% and 4.95% with 50% (median 4.88%). The chance it is above 4.88%, its value for 9 November 2026, is 50%.
| Chance below | Value |
|---|---|
| 5% | 4.69% |
| 10% | 4.75% |
| 25% | 4.82% |
| 50% | 4.88% |
| 75% | 4.95% |
| 90% | 5.01% |
| 95% | 5.07% |
The chance it is above 4.88%: 50%.
The facts it rests on
10-year US Treasury yield: 4.88% for 9 November 2026, as published by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15. Check it at its source. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Its history used: 743 changes from 10 November 2023 to 9 November 2026.
The method and its assumptions
The series' past changes over the same horizon, added to its latest value.
The 743 changes of the series over 7 days from values dated 10 November 2023 to 9 November 2026; their quantiles (Hyndman and Fan's definition 7) added to its latest value, 4.88%, give the forecast's; the chance of a rise is the share of those changes above zero with one added to each side (Laplace's rule): (368 + 1) / (743 + 2).
How it is resolved and scored
Resolved with the value FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes for the first date on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 30 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.
Disclosures
- Produced by
- Voyage Tracable, LLC, which makes Invisible Network, by the method above, run by the site's server at the daily run. No person chose, edited or saw it before it was published.
- Completed and first published
- 11 November 2026 at 12:18 UTC, at the same moment.
- What it is
- A forecast of a value, with its uncertainty. It is not advice to anyone in particular, and not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything; everyone is shown the same.
- Interests of the producer
- Declared on 2026-11-10 by David Jean Charlot, PhD, owner, for Voyage Tracable, LLC: David Jean Charlot and the companies he controls, Voyage Tracable, LLC among them, hold no position in, and do not trade, US Treasury securities or Treasury futures, the euro against the US dollar, crude oil or natural gas.
- The site's rules
- Nobody connected to the site trades on a forecast before it is published. All the station's rules.
- In the record
- Line 12 of the record, hash
fbbd55aad2e05acfb1f8599c67007da5a42585a4e682a9d432dc3fa5373c9fef.
Earlier forecasts of this question, the 12 months before
None.