Euro area inflation, next month's figure

Made and published 11 November 2026 at 12:18 UTC. Open: resolved with the first value from 1 November 2026.

The forecast an estimate, not a fact

Euro area annual inflation (HICP) for November 2026 will be between 3.5% and 4.6% with 80% probability, and between 3.8% and 4.3% with 50% (median 4.0%). The chance it is above 4.0%, its value for October 2026, is 47%.

Its distribution: the value is expected below each of these with the chance shown
Chance below	Value
5%	3.4%
10%	3.5%
25%	3.8%
50%	4.0%
75%	4.3%
90%	4.6%
95%	4.8%

The chance it is above 4.0%: 47%.

Target: the first value from 1 November 2026. Void if none by 16 December 2026.

The first forecast of this question.

The facts it rests on

Euro area inflation (HICP, annual rate), monthly: 4.0% for 1 October 2026, as published by Eurostat. Check it at its source. Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_minr).

Its history used: 119 changes from 1 November 2016 to 1 October 2026.

Read from Eurostat 11 November 2026 at 12:18 UTC: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/prc_hicp_minr?geo=EA&coicop18=TOTAL&unit=RCH_A&sinceTimePeriod=2016-09&format=JSON&lang=EN; the bytes read had the SHA-256 18b5f32e43ef07f2c46bddeb1d3dbfdc9daafeecd79fb6461ec2482c038b504d.

The method and its assumptions

The series' past changes over the same horizon, added to its latest value.

The 119 changes of the series over 28 days from values dated 1 November 2016 to 1 October 2026; their quantiles (Hyndman and Fan's definition 7) added to its latest value, 4.0%, give the forecast's; the chance of a rise is the share of those changes above zero with one added to each side (Laplace's rule): (56 + 1) / (119 + 2).

The assumption: the spread of the series' changes in the window used is the spread of the change to come. Nothing else is used: no news, no other series, no one's judgment.

How it is resolved and scored

Resolved with the value Eurostat publishes for the first month on or after the target date, as the station first reads it (later revisions do not change it). Void if none is published within 45 days after it. Scored by the CRPS, by whether the value falls inside the 50%, 80% and 90% intervals, and the chance of a rise by the Brier score.

Asked again each time Eurostat publishes a new value, at the daily run at 06:00 UTC.

Disclosures

Produced by: Voyage Tracable, LLC, which makes Invisible Network, by the method above, run by the site's server at the daily run. No person chose, edited or saw it before it was published.
Completed and first published: 11 November 2026 at 12:18 UTC, at the same moment.
What it is: A forecast of a value, with its uncertainty. It is not advice to anyone in particular, and not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything; everyone is shown the same.
The site's rules: Nobody connected to the site trades on a forecast before it is published. All the station's rules.
In the record: Line 18 of the record, hash b6516860804e67cc96a7c12dc90c8ad5e2c78bd8b7b74758fad0ed24b0c4a00d.

Earlier forecasts of this question, the 12 months before

None.