Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Episodes page 5 of 6

1. Top of Mind, Turbulent Financial Times

   18 Aug 2023 · 1 h 18 min · Episode 125

   Despite the light week of economic data, there was lots going in in the economy to discuss for the Inside Economics team, including the runup in 10-year Treasury yields and fixed mortgage rates. Noted investment banker…

2. Banner Inflation, Banking Braves Out

   11 Aug 2023 · 1 h 31 min · Episode 124

   The Inside Economics team dissects the July report on consumer price inflation and concludes that inflation is on track to be back to the Fed’s inflation target by this time next year. Well, OK, Cris thought more…

3. Near Perfect, New Probability

   4 Aug 2023 · 52 min · Episode 123

   It’s jobs Friday, and Mark, Cris and Dante discuss the near perfect (Dante’s description) July employment report. Job growth remains strong, but it is moderating, and should help convince the Federal Reserve that its…

4. Perfect PCE, Problematic Politics

   28 Jul 2023 · 1 h 23 min · Episode 122

   Mark, Cris and Marisa (yes, she is back) welcome Matt Robison of the Beyond Politics podcast to talk policy and politics. The discussion ranges from the risk of a government shutdown and Bidenomics to a consideration…

5. Forecast Surprises, Successes and Slip-Ups

   23 Jul 2023 · 1 h 25 min · Episode 121

   Mark and Cris take stock of the economy’s performance so far this year, and consider what surprised them (think the job market), what they got right (think weaker house prices), and what they got wrong (think the…

6. Healthy Inflation, Unhealthy Housing

   14 Jul 2023 · 1 h 19 min · Episode 120

   The stellar June CPI inflation report is top of mind for Mark, Cris and Bernard. The report arguably couldn’t have been better, as the conversation makes clear. The podcast then turns to a discussion of whether the…

7. Relaxing Report, Squiggly Data

   7 Jul 2023 · 41 min · Episode 119

   Mark, Cris & Marisa are joined by Jobs Day regular Dante DeAntonio to discuss the June employment report. Job growth is slowing to script but wage growth is still stubbornly high. The group discusses full employment,…

8. Roach on China and the Road Forward

   30 Jun 2023 · 1 h 12 min · Episode 118

   Stephen Roach, Senior Fellow at the China Center of Yale Law School, discusses China’s near and longer-term economic prospects with Mark, Cris and Marisa. Steve explains why he has evolved from a bull to a bear on…

9. Forecasting the Fed and Falling CRE

   23 Jun 2023 · 1 h 19 min · Episode 117

   Mark, Cris and Marisa weigh whether or not to change the forecast for the Fed funds rate and dig deep to play the statistics game. Later they are joined by Professor Glenn Mueller of the University of Denver to talk…

10. Shelter from the Storm(s)

    16 Jun 2023 · 1 h 22 min · Episode 116

    The Inside Economics team takes shelter from a tornado (true story), and Mark Calabria, senior advisor to the Cato Institute and former director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, describes the FHFA’s efforts to…

11. Taiwan Straits, Tough Geopolitics

    9 Jun 2023 · 58 min · Episode 115

    Amid mounting geopolitical tensions over the independence of Taiwan, Mark and team consider various scenarios regarding how this is ultimately resolved. China appears to be taking a long-term perspective in its goal to…

12. Debt Limit Relief, Labor Market Disbelief

    2 Jun 2023 · 1 h 19 min · Episode 114

    The group dives deep into the jobs report for May. They dissect the cross-currents in the numbers, and consider what the report means for financial markets, monetary policy and the macroeconomy. The economic fallout of…

13. Do we have a Deal?

    26 May 2023 · 1 h 14 min · Episode 113

    Ben Harris, former Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, summarizes the latest proposal for raising the debt ceiling. An acceptable deal seems to be within reach but remains politically uncertain…

14. New Construction and Niche-y Nerds

    19 May 2023 · 1 h 11 min · Episode 112

    Richard Branch, Chief Economist for Dodge Data & Analytics, joins the podcast to share his insights on all things construction. Construction is the most interest rate sensitive sector of the economy, yet despite the…

15. CPI Silver Lining, Debt Limit Timing

    12 May 2023 · 1 h 21 min · Episode 111

    Mark and team do a deep dive into the inflation numbers and consider prospects that inflation will continue to moderate. After the statistics game, they turn to their latest research considering the economic fallout of…

16. Resilient Jobs, Risky Times

    5 May 2023 · 1 h 12 min · Episode 110

    Another jobs Friday, another strong jobs report. Dante DeAntonio joins the crew to break down the employment numbers and what they mean for the near-term outlook. The team also discusses the recent banking crisis, the…

17. Pinto, Prices and Policy

    28 Apr 2023 · 1 h 12 min · Episode 109

    Falling house prices and recent housing policy actions taken by the FHA and FHFA to address housing affordability are top of mind this week. Edward Pinto, Senior Fellow and the Director of the AEI Housing Center at the…

18. Banks, Bonds, and Beige Book

    21 Apr 2023 · 1 h 11 min · Episode 108

    John Toohig, head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, joins Mark, Cris and Marisa to discuss the fallout of the banking crisis on lending standards, credit growth and the economy. The fallout so far seems…

19. CPI, Cars, and Credit Conditions

    14 Apr 2023 · 1 h 19 min · Episode 107

    Jonathan Smoke, chief economist of Cox Automotive and colleague Mike Brisson join Mark and Cris to discuss what’s going on in the vehicle market. After a rundown on this week’s inflation stats we discuss prospects for…

20. Bonus Episode: Heather Boushey on Climate and the Economy

    11 Apr 2023 · 57 min · Bonus

    Heather Boushey, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, joins the podcast. She gives us a rundown on the economy, including her thoughts on the job market and inflation, and the hard work of…

21. Healthy Job Market, Unhealthy Hosts

    7 Apr 2023 · 1 h 15 min · Episode 106

    Inside Economics regular Dante DeAntonio joins us for the March release of the US employment report. Down the strike zone. In the middle of the uprights. Down the fairway. Sticking to script. All apt descriptions of…

22. US Bull, China Bear

    31 Mar 2023 · 1 h 09 min · Episode 105

    Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, chief investment officer for Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs, join Mark, Cris and Marisa to cut through the uncertainty over the banking crisis and China’s prospects. The worst of the…

23. Financial Fragility & the Fed

    24 Mar 2023 · 1 h 07 min · Episode 104

    Diane Swonk, chief economist of KPMG returns to discuss fragilities in the financial system and the impact on credit availability and the economy. She shares her view that a meaningful recession is dead ahead. We also…

24. Systemic Threats, Supervisory Shortfalls

    17 Mar 2023 · 1 h 20 min · Episode 103

    Mark and Marisa welcome third time returning guest Aaron Klein, Senior Fellow of Economic Studies at the Brookings Institute to discuss the recent bank failures. They converse and debate about how things went so badly…

25. Full Employment, Failing Banks

    10 Mar 2023 · 59 min · Episode 102

    It’s another Jobs’ Friday and colleague Dante DeAntonio is here to discuss February’s employment report. Wage growth is moderating and the unemployment rate ticked up, but labor supply among prime age workers reached a…

26. Shaky Credit, Shifting Consumers

    3 Mar 2023 · 1 h 21 min · Episode 101

    Colleagues Scott Hoyt and David Fieldhouse join the podcast to analyze the state of American consumers and household balance sheets. Then Mark, Cris and Marisa answer some listener questions. For the full transcript…

27. Bonus Episode: The Yield Curve Whisperer Weighs In

    28 Feb 2023 · 1 h 03 min · Bonus

    Duke finance professor Cam Harvey, the father of the yield curve as a prescient predictor of future recession, weighs in on what the curve is saying about recession in the coming year. You will be surprised. Mark and…

28. Be Patient and Beer Inflation

    24 Feb 2023 · 1 h 14 min · Episode 100

    Bill Spriggs, Chief Economist of AFL-CIO, joins the podcast and shares his views that we need to be patient on inflation, it's not the result of an overly tight labor market but to temporary forces, and thus does not…

29. Bonus Episode: U.S. Economic Outlook Q&A

    22 Feb 2023 · 1 h 09 min · Bonus

    Mark, Cris, and Marisa answer questions from their recent U.S. Economic Outlook webinar where they discussed that the economy will struggle in 2023 with halting growth and higher unemployment. Recession is a serious…

30. Inflation Head Fakes and Heartbreaks

    17 Feb 2023 · 1 h 17 min · Episode 99

    Colleague, Bernard Yaros joins the podcast to help unpack the January CPI Report (which just happened to be released on Valentine's Day) and discuss their biggest inflation concerns, including Marisa's shockingly high…

31. Housing Recession, Homeownership Retreats

    10 Feb 2023 · 1 h 12 min · Episode 98

    Chris Herbert, Managing Director at Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, joins the podcast to discuss the state of the housing market, from the current housing recession to the outlook for homeownership. Go…

32. Jaw-Dropping January Jobs

    3 Feb 2023 · 1 h 20 min · Episode 97

    Colleague Dante DeAntonio joins the podcast for another round of Job's Friday. The group dissects the January report, which included a shockingly large increase in jobs and a 53-year low unemployment rate. Everyone's…

33. Bonus Episode: Kahn on Climate

    31 Jan 2023 · 1 h 01 min · Bonus

    Mark and Cris welcome Matthew Kahn, Provost Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California, and colleague Gaurav Ganguly, to discuss climate change and Matthew's optimistic view on adaptation to global…

34. Crazy Data, Claims, and Cowbells

    27 Jan 2023 · 1 h 03 min · Episode 96

    The Q4 GDP Report has been released and Mark, Cris, and Marisa analyze the weirdness surrounding the data. Colleague, Gaurav Ganguly, joins the podcast to give a European perspective and Mark continues his domination…

35. Possiblism and Probablism

    20 Jan 2023 · 1 h 05 min · Episode 95

    We welcome Jason Furman, Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School to discuss what could potentially be a catastrophic default of the national debt. We'll get into President…

36. David Wessel on the Debt Ceiling

    13 Jan 2023 · 1 h 09 min · Episode 94

    Mark, Cris, and Marisa are joined by David Wessel, senior fellow in economic studies at Brookings, to dissect the CPI report, and discuss Fed policy, prospects for recession, and the looming threat of a debt limit…

37. Slowcession and Sticking to Script

    6 Jan 2023 · 1 h 10 min · Episode 93

    It's job's Friday and Mark argues the labor market is cooling off according to script. Colleagues Dante DeAntonio and Marisa DiNatale provide the details. And Cris fine-tunes his definition of the best way to describe…

38. New Year, New Outlook

    30 Dec 2022 · 1 h 09 min · Episode 92

    To kick off the new year, Mark, Cris, and Marisa share their U.S. economic outlooks for 2023. Which sectors are at risk? Will the Fed tip us in? We discuss the full gamut and introduce a new segment where we take…

39. Ho-Hum Savings and Happy Holidays

    23 Dec 2022 · 1 h 21 min · Episode 91

    Colleague, Scott Hoyt, joins to discuss where the American consumer stands and how that differs by income group. A shrinking savings rate and sputtering retail sales won't break the American consumer or Mark's good…

40. Mispriced Markets, Miserable Outlook

    16 Dec 2022 · 1 h 10 min · Episode 90

    Greg Jensen, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Bridgewater Associates, Mark and the team this week. We get into the causes and outlook for inflation and prospects for the economy and financial markets. Greg shares his…

41. Humble Forecasting, Hopeful Outlook

    9 Dec 2022 · 1 h 05 min · Episode 89

    Justin Wolfers, Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the University of Michigan, joins the podcast to discuss inflation, monetary policy, and prospects for recession next year. Are we being too pessimistic when…

42. Mixed Messages and Moderating Jobs?

    3 Dec 2022 · 57 min · Episode 88

    Mark and Cris welcome back colleague, Dante DeAntonio of Moody's Analytics, to analyze the November U.S. Employment Report. Is the jobs market moderating? Depends who you ask. Full episode transcript. Follow Mark…

43. Resilient Job Market and Remote Work Part 2

    25 Nov 2022 · 35 min · Episode 87

    Nick Bunker, Economic Research Director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab and Adam Ozimek, Chief Economist at EIG, discuss the state of remote work and the economic implications. Full episode transcript…

44. Resilient Job Market and Remote Work Part 1

    22 Nov 2022 · 52 min · Episode 86

    Nick Bunker, Economic Research Director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab and Adam Ozimek, Chief Economist at EIG, join the podcast to provide a labor market outlook. Full episode transcript Follow Mark…

45. Climate and the Curve

    18 Nov 2022 · 1 h 28 min · Episode 85

    Mark, Cris, and Marisa discuss the yield curve and give their latest recession odds. They also welcome back colleagues, Gaurav Ganguly, Chris Lafakis, and Bernard Yaros of Moody's Analytics, to examine the challenges…

46. Mark’s References, Moderating Inflation, and the Midterms

    11 Nov 2022 · 1 h 20 min · Episode 84

    Mark and Cris break down the October CPI Report and the latest on inflation. Colleagues, Dan White and Emily Mandel of Moody's Analytics, join the podcast to give a rundown of the midterm election results and the…

47. Debating Jobs, Debating Forecasts

    4 Nov 2022 · 1 h 16 min · Episode 83

    Mark and the team dissect October's employment report, the Fed's most recent rate hike, and what it all means for the prospects for a recession in the coming year. Full episode transcript Follow Mark Zandi…

48. Welcoming Marisa and What’s Next for Multifamily

    28 Oct 2022 · 1 h 25 min · Episode 82

    Mark Obrinsky, Chief Economist for the National Multifamily Housing Council, joins the podcast and gives a detailed housing outlook. Topics include rent growth, housing shortage, and the impact of inflation on the…

49. Consumer Sentiment and Sentimental Farewell

    21 Oct 2022 · 1 h 12 min · Episode 81

    On Ryan's final episode of Inside Economics, John Leer, Chief Economist of Morning Consult, joins the podcast to discuss the state of the economy, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and the potential early…

50. Klein on Threats to the Global Financial System

    18 Oct 2022 · 1 h 09 min · Bonus

    Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Aaron Klein, Miriam K. Carliner Chair and Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, to discuss stress points in the global financial system, the conditions for a financial crisis,…