St. Louis Post-Dispatch
August 23, 1914

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NO. 3. VOL. 67. St. Louis! Trade spas Tells why Prosperity St Louis Priest and Rabbi Tel What Coat Mean! ST. LOUIS, SUNDAY MORNING, AUGUST 23, 1914. Ose for United States Will Follow Europe’ s War James H. Brookmire Explains the Possibilities for the Devel- opment of Our Commerce While the Conflict Rages, but It Will Be After the Struggle Is Ended That Our Greatest Expansion Will Come. bond brokerage firm of Simon, Brookmire & Clifford, in the Security Building, prest+ dent of the Brookmire Economic Service, and a widely recognized authority on economics, has . H. BROOKMIRE of the stock and prepared, at the request of the Post-Dispatch, a statement of facts of the influence of the Euro- pean War on American frade and the results which, from an economic study of the situation, are to be expected. Mr. Brookmire devotes the greater part of ais time to the study of conditions which arise in business, and thousands of business men anid ban vers in all parts of the world subscribe to nh. gert ee. Hs believes that the European war gives the } Untted States an opportunity to become a leader in many lines of business in which European countries have led. He expresses the opinion that if the business of the country takes advan lage of the opportunities presented by the war, the United States will have an era of high pros- perity. | By James H. Brookmire. HAT the initial effect of the European war | | upon general business and financial con- ditions in the United States is injurious is a known fact; and that the permanent effects of war upon property and social vitality are usu- ally detrimental is a common belief. fits from the present situation. has good credit now, and we shall have! largely removed from factories to the scene of . hostilities, European competition in the markets cf South America and neutral countries generally is almost entirely shut off. This strength of fundamental conditions at Burope gives us an unparalleled opportunity to increase our sales of merchandise in new for- elgu markets, and once the inhabitants of the South American states and other countries be- come accustomed to the use of American-made goods, or our manufacturers learn to cater to the desires of newly acquired foreign consumers, it will be difficult to get their trade away from us. The lines of business which can benefit from the present opportunity in the export trade, of course, will be those which are peculiarly favored by the natural resources of the United States, such as steel, oll, agricultural implements, etc. Out of a total world’s production of steel ingots, amounting to 75,000,000 tons, about 31,000,000 tons are produced in the United States and the rest in those European countries now at war. With this immense European capacity paralyzed and much of it destroyed, the normal demand for steel products in neutral countries should logically come to the United States. Incidentally, in addition to providing a demand from new sources for manufactures already established in this country, it is probable that minor new indus- tries will spring up to supply the demand for goods previously furnished exclusively by Euro- pean producers. New Bank System to Aid. N past years the rank and file of our busi- ness men have been constrained from cam- paigning in foreign markets to some ex- tent On account of the lack of ships flying the American flag, but to a much larger degree on account of the lack of adequate banking facili- ties, for it has been the better terms of credit sxtension which the bankers of Germany, En- stend and other countries have given their ex- _ porters, more than shipping facilities, that has enabled them to excel American producers in ac- quiring and keeping newly developed foreign ‘markets. Consequently, it is most fortunate and opportune that we have already enacted into law in this new system is the branches of American banks countries, which will give us ex- needed for doing ö which the war now gives us 0 portunity to secure. In the export trade paper which banks It is our the purpose here, however, to discuss whether and exporters a great advantage over American ship- bow this country can derive commercial bene- | ! with each country separately for a term of, say, ey In the first place, the United States is now ton or twelve years, and with stable tariff rates 8 m better eredit than any other country on the and long-term loans in their favor, the German _ © “Blebe; in fact, we are the only first-class nation manufacturers have been able to make ; Strides in the export trade. Bigher credit rating than any other nation, porters are favored by commercial treaties, for for years to come. The physical factors ; in wealth production in the United States also : of ard More vigorously engaged and in a stronger technical” situation than anywhere else on earth. “With the export trade of European countries system of tariff making, prostrated by war and their laboring populations home coincident with commercial helplessness in VAVIAVAVAVA Via AVAVAVAVAUL — ~ » ee — — — — S2 5 JAMES n ; BROOKMIPE “er 2 stimulation of manufacture for the export trade. That is why German exporters are so successful. In this connection also it may be added that German system of making treaties gives her bers, for in Germany individual treaties are made rapid In England, too, ex- with free trade practically to all other countries the world, England can negotiate treaties which In the under our antiquated customs duties are sub- give tariff advantages to her shippers. United States, however, ject to change without notice, and our commercial treaties are to that extent unstable, and as a general thing commercially unsatisfactory. Discusses Merchant Marine. EGARDING the question of a merchant ma- R rine, I do not mean to say that the bene- fits to be derived from an increased num- ber of merchant ships flying the American flag would not be worth vigorous efforts to encourage the expansion of tonnage in American registry; on the contrary, I believe that if, instead of only about 10 per cent of our foreign trade carried in American bottoms, as at present, we should double or quadruple this proportion, the foreign business of the United States would be substan- tially increased. The important point to be considered in dis- cussing the development of an American merchant marine, however, is that investment capital will seek the highest return and it is useless to expect American capital to become employed in ship- pivg shares if the securities of railroads and in- dustrial corporations offer a more attractive in- vestment opportunity. Previous to the Civil War about three-fourths of our foreign trade was handled by American ships, because ocean trans- portation offered a more advantageous employ- ment of capital than canal boats and manufactur- ing enterprises. Since 1860, however, American capitalists have largely left ocean transportation to European steamship lines, not because it was Unpossible to get back the trade which American ship owners lost during the Civil War, but because railroad building and factory construction prom- fsed a larger return on money invested. Since the Civil War the United States has been, and still is, a “locomotive” more than a “ship” country. And because of the fact that the enor- mous resources of the United States yet to be de- veloped will continue to offer abundant oppor- tunity for the investment of domestic capital, the immediate establishment of foreign branches of American banks under our Federal reserve bank- ing system and the negotiation of commereinl treaties under a satisfactory tariff system (yet to be developed) will prove productive of more bene- ficial results than any legislative attempt to build up a merchant marine. Once our bankers co- operate with our exporters by extending the credit machinery necessary in foreign trade, the fleets of England, Norway, Germany and other coun- tries will prove willing and efficient servants. What domestic exporters now lack are modern banking facilities—ships there are in plentiful supply. Must Register Foreign Ships. HE present deplorable state of crippled commerce, however, shows that to make the existing supply of foreign ships serv- lceable, they must be permitted to register under the American flag on easy terms. Public policy demands this. Ig act, if shipping and credit fa- A the outlook for American securities will be espect- ally bright. Basic conditions here are sounder than anywhere else in the world. For this reason, dur- ing the next few years, European investors will probably buy back at higher prices the American securities which they have re- cently been compelled to liqui- date, owing to the lightness of money abroad, and because of the fact that the very enormity of the present war would seem to insure a considerable period of general peace and financial recuperation, during which an increasing flow of European capital will seek in- vestment in the United States, the period of improvement which will follow the war should develop into an era of real prosperity in the United States—JAMES H. BROOKMIRE. S soon as the war ts over, | cilities are not supplied before the war is over, the present opportunity to gain foreign trade may be lost to American importers, for there is no make haste to resume such trade relations with neutral countries as have been normal in times of peace. If we turn from a purely selfish consideration of the possible benefits to be derived from the present situation and consider the economic progress of the world as a whole, there is abun- dant evidence to show that wealth is being un- wisely invested and wasted on a prodigious scale. About the best measure of the extent of this eco- nomic waste is found in the enormous deprecia- tion in security values and the critical over-ex- tension of the state banks of Europe. The United States for the past three years has been sending enormous amounts of gold to Europe and, likewise, a steady stream of the metal has been pouring into European bank reserves from gold mines elsewhere in the world. Notwith- standing this fact, however, so much capital in the hands of private investors has been witheld from investment through fear of war—constitut- ing an economic waste—and foreign Governments have made such extravagant war expenditures that the credit of European Governments is badly over extended and the people are burdened with excessive taxation. European countries undoubt- edly have a severe period of economizing and re- trenchment ahead of them before the waste of war can be repaired and the savings of the people will furnish the supply of working capital neces- ary to another period of expansion in the for- eign investment and commodity markets. London Securities Drop. URING the past two years the aggregate D value of 387 securities traded in on the the London Stock Exchange (including colonial and American securities and worth 318, 060,000,000 in the spring of 1912) has shown a de- cline of $1,200,000,000. This enormous loss does not include many securities listed in other finan- cia] markets, but it is a pretty fair index of the destruction of capital involved in war expendi- tures, for this wholesale depreciation in security value is largely due to the fact that the large banks in Europe, after becoming well extended by trade expansion during 1909-1812, have had to force compulsory liquidation of transportation and industrial securities in order to make way for the underwriting of foreign Government bonds. The drastic declines in American securities since the Balkan War broke out in October, 1912, ure almost wholly due to forced selling from Europe; in fact, the adverse influence of Euro- pean financial conditions during the past three years without doubt has checked trade and new coustruction enterprises in the United States to an extent which far overshadows any injurious consequences which may have resulted from trust prosecutions, tariff legislation and freight rate decisions, all taken together. At the present time the New York Stock Ex- chunge is closed in order to protect our gold sup- ply from the inroads of Buropean Governments, and this protection should be continued until an adequate credit balance can be established with forcign nations through exports of merchandise, especially wheat and cotton. As soon as the war is over, however, the outlook for American busi- ness and securities will be especially bright. Basic ccnditions here are sounder than anywhere else in the world. For this reason, during the next few years European investors will probably buy back at higher prices the American securities which they have recently been compelled to loqui- date owing to the tightness of money abroad, and because of the fact that the very enormity of the present war would seem to insure a con- siaerable period of general peace and financial recuperation, during which an increasing flow of Buropean capital will seek investment in the United States, the period of improvement which will follow the war should develop into an era of real prosperity in the United States. | doubt that European bankers and shippers will o-|—|-o 0-|—|-0 o-|—|-0 Pledges to Poles and Jews Father Urban Stanowski Be- lieves That the Royal Proc- lamation, Promising Politi- cal Freedom and Autonomy to Russian Poles, Heralds a United Poland and Possibly a Pan-Slavic Republic—Dr. Harrison Sees the Light of a Promised Miracle, Which, if Performed, Will Work Wonders for the Jew. Duke Nicholas, commander of his army, is reported to have issued two proclama- tions a few days ago of far-reaching import to millions of his subjects. To both the Poles and the Jews he fervently appealed for aid in the present crisis that besets his Empire and he pledged his sovereign word that if they would stand with him and help him to fight his battles, their reward should be a realization of their racial and religious dreams. To the Poles, he promised political freedom and autonomy; that Russian Poland should be- come really a Russian state, which meant that no longer should its people be treated as political outcasts but as a racial, if not national, entity. There was in the proclamation a hint that they | Czar of Russia, speaking through Grand might even hope for unity with the dismembered limbs of the old Polish kingdom, Austrian and German Poland; that Germany and Austria, when beaten (the Czar, of course, does not consider it possible that victory may fall the other way) would be compelled to cede their fragments o Poland back to the parent body. Father Urban Stanowski, pastor of St. Stanis- laus Catholic Church, at Twentieth street and Cass avenue, who has lived in Poland and in- herited the hopes and aspirations of his people, believes that their fondest dreams of a united and autonomous Poland are really about to come (defenders to o-|—|-0 te ee ee ee ee eee — 0-|—|-0 it They'll Fight His \ Battles in Pres nt War Hl 00 rr i f Ane in N 1 | 10 i big 0 i 0 ld * dd He Ry Hy — 2 DN 7 — 0 10 8 {i N piu Hi AUSTRIA - ‘HUN 1 0 2 poOLAIND. PRUSSIAN. III AUSTRIAN ES ffreussiAn. ny it ‘ S 0 | ms a, 0 Hh 0 : ee \ re ofl siete Ca > oo 4 7 27 Het a Po od 7 I: ty * * 365 Hr hy 5 7 1 * “ 9 85 + y pl > a nf : 72 5 This map shows the portions of the old Kingdom of Poland that are held now by Rus : sia, Germany and Austria, respectively. that a revolution should come like a bolt from the blue; a revolution sweeping away the mon- strous ages by the lifting of a finger, by a stroke of the pen and with an autocrat as its prime mover and cause. Yet, call it policy or call it principle, what could be wiser; what could be nobler, to add 6,000,000 well-wishers, enthusiastic and grateful the Russian Empire's fighting true and he even hopes that out of this happy ) forces; to turn 6,000,000 victims of Russia into development will arise a Pan-Slavic republic. from Charlevoiz, Mich., where he is spending the summer, sees in the pledge of equality, political, religious and commercial to the Jews, a promise) tlement; Their { international of a miracle that will light the world. statements follow: “High Military Strategy for Czar to Win 6,000,000 Jews Favor, Says Dr. Harrison By Rabbi Leon Harrison of Temple Israe!. CHARLEVOIX, Mich., Aug. 23. DOUBT if there is a | single episode of the now being written in let- ters of blood upon the * face of Europe that has ‘atid thrilled through amazement | than the that emotions of and gratitude recent report to emancipate his 6,000, 000 Jewish subjects. It will be wonderful, beyond all human ex- pression, if, in the very throes and anguish of war, this miracle of right RABBI LEON HARRISON. and justice should be brought to the birth. velous, indeed, that like should cure like, that war which murders the body should in this in- stance, end persecution that strangles mind and soul. If we take for granted the truth of this report, which we devoutly hope and pray we may, the Czar of Russia with one stroke of the solved the awful problem that is at once the despair of modern Israel and the shame of civil- ization—the problem of the hounded, hated, de- graded millions of Russian Jews. These millions of Jews that Russia did not desire came to her with the one-third of Poland that she did desire and seized, and no people in recorded annals have suffered as bitterly as these Russian Jews. Generations Literally in Hell” Pe vec for their religion, hated and nied the commonest rights of men, the right of education, of residence, of honorable generations literally in hell, with constantly new restrictions, new disabilities, new massacres, de- Government itself. And now, at the darkest hour, to see the.glory and the sweetness of the “Russian Jews Have Lived for feared because of their intelligence, de- occupations, the Russian Jews have lived for liberately incited by the agents of the Russian light, the promised miracle, it seems incredible . atti a terrific drama that 1s Rabbi Leon Harrison of Temple Israel, King's fense of a fatherland at last made truly their highway and Washington boulevard, telegraphing own, and to bind these loyal Jewish hearts to ; — — i i country that at last calls them its children, not a { ) \ 7 ö ö ) the ) world awakening, wilder * 6 the J itself that triumphs when one of its downtrod- Czar of Russia is 2 \ Mar- { } 4 pen has) LL : ; Polish loyalty to Russia ‘ civilization’s pale, would make the brotherhood as many potential victors beneath its flag in de- Russia’s cause on the firing line of the empire; in the Polish provinces the Jewish pale of set- the post of danger destined to be the battlefield; to accomplish these great ends in this noble fashion were statesman- ship and military strategy of the highest order. Czar by His Decree Adds an Irresistible Force to His Army HAT legions could withstand the quar- W ter of a million Jewish soldiers that are now serving in the Russian army, with souls on fire, veritable Maccabees fighting thus for a war lord who is their liberator, for a its serfs. Such an act as this edict of emancipation, redressing the blackest crime of history, would at last bring the mighty Muscovite empire into of man more than an empty phrase, even where the shadows of the Middle Ages lie the thickest. Such an act would vindicate the justice of the eternal God, “He watching over Israel slumbers ot, nor sleeps.” Let us note finally, that this is not simply a ‘matter for Jewish jubilation. For it’s humanity den people is made free. If the Russian Jews are emancipated let us . congratulate a great empire and its Czar on being themselves emancipated; on winning a glory greater than any that can possibly spring from the clash of nations and the triumph of arms. Pan- Slavic Republic May Arise in Free Pofand, Says Polish Priest in St, Lou's N independent Pol- ish state, perhaps a pan-Slavic re- public, will be one of the results of the present war, in the opinion of the Rev. Father Urban Stan- owski, pastor of St. Stanislaus’ Polish Ro- man Catholic Church, Twentieth street and Cass avenue. 2 K. Polish autonomy, or 1 home rule, which has been promised by the Czar as a reward for in the war, will be but a tre step toward final inde- REV. URBAN STANOWSKI pendence, Father Stan- owski believes. That the Polish people will ful- fill the Czar’s condition by giving loyal support Ev ge US a e Ea ed a 1 4 to Russia against Germany and Austria; he does not doubt. “There are Poles in my Parish,” said rather Stanowski to a Post-Dispatch reporter, “who | fought for Russia in the war with Japan. 9 rather, they stood up with guns in their hands, and let the Japanese take them prisoners. They had no intention of doing anything for . if they could avoid it. The Japanese their feelings and treated them royally as prison · ers, giving them the best of food and care, and oven providing them with Catholic priests to Dea? — confessions and say mass for them. “ee. 1 “But the Poles will not be that sort of soldier: this time. They are splendid fighters when they are in earnest, and they will be in earnest now that their country’s future is at stake. The ap athy now will be among the Galicians who weal the Austrian uniform, and among the soldiers whom Germany has recruited in Posen and Ghe sen, the Polish provinces of Germany. The Rus siens can invade Galicia or Posen with the as surance that they will be welcomed as the French are now being welcomed in Alsace. oa German Oppression of Poles Described as Worse Than ca 66 ERMANY has oppressed the Poles fay 6 more than Russia has done, since par tition of Poland in 1815. They have | tried not so much to Germanize the Poles as to Lutheranize them. Russia, it is true, has not” been friendly to the Catholic Church in : but the Czar has now given his solemn pledge the Polish people shall have their own language their own customs and their own religion. | In the event of Russia’s victory over Germany the Poles of Russia will hope to see Galicia, Pos — en and Ghesen reunited to them. With the unity of Poland restored, we may look forward con? fidently to independent nationality, to come later. 9 „Austria, if defeated, will lose not only Galicia, | but the ancient kingdom of Bohemia, and perhaps Hungary and Croatia as well. Germanic Austrias has not more than 10,000,000 inhabitants, We have been governing several times their number of other peoples. All this I expect to see dome q away with, effacing Austria from the map, or af f least reducing her to a minor state. a * Believes End of Monarchy Even for Russia Is New 4 * N following a liberal policy toward the Po © 1 ish people and the Jews, the Czar 4 find that he must also grant the Russias | people greater liberties. How this will work © n no man can now say, but it is my belief that the day of monarchy has passed even for Russia, & that the Slavic nations, of the great Pan- nation, of the future will have a republican f of government. I believe the Slavs will one have a Federal republic, a umion of states 2 American model.“ The population of the territory which or formed the kingdom of Poland, and which was ue vided between the three surrounding nations 2 the Napoleonic wars, is nearly 25,000,000. R 2 which contains the ancient capital, “ „ has a population of more than * . 8 century of subjugation the Poles ie lost their national feeling w their national as tions. They have stood toward their Rus German and Austrian ruler, as Ireland toward England. Now that a task has signed to them, and 3 reward for its »