Podcasts · WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Good Things Happening in SA | How to Spot the Bubble Popping
· 20 min · Episode 657
Episode Good Things Happening in SA | How to Spot the Bubble Popping
Worldwide Markets — Episode 657 (19 November 2025) 🗓️📈
🔥 This Week on Worldwide Markets
Good things are happening in South Africa 🇿🇦, bubble-watching on global markets 🎈, fresh ETF listings from Ninety One 📊, strong local results (Astral 🐔, WeBuyCars 🚗, Ninety One 💼), and the Year-End Power Hour opens for bookings 🎤✨.
🎈 Bubble Talk: When Does It Pop?
Guest Insight: Citigroup's Dirk Willer (via Odd Lots podcast) Definition: A bubble = asset prices 2 standard deviations above the 1-year average.
His exit rule:
➡️ Identify the drivers — the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta). ➡️ The bubble pops when 2 of the 7 fall below their 200-day EMA 📉.
Current Status:
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Meta: 12% below the 200-day ❗
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Microsoft: +5.4% above
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Amazon: +6.5% above
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Others still safely above.
👉 So we're halfway to bubble-popping territory. 👉 But: bubbles make money on the way up — timing the exit is the key.
Fun fact: Alphabet has negative net debt (more cash than debt) 💰.
📊 Ninety One Lists Two Actively Managed Income ETFs
Two new AMETFs hit the JSE:
🇿🇦 91DINC (Local Income ETF)
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Quarterly dividends
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TER: ~0.25% (incl VAT)
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Tax-free account eligible
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~20-year unit trust track record
🌍 91GINC (Global Income ETF)
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Accumulating (rolls up dividends)
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~9% USD yield target
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Pays in ZAR on the JSE
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~4.5% current USD yield
Full explainer webcast here 🎥.
🇿🇦 Good Things Happening in South Africa
Yes, things are still tough — but several green shoots 🌱:
1️⃣ Greylist Exit
SA officially removed — major reputational win ✔️.
2️⃣ Medium-term Budget Positives
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Debt trajectory stabilising (may not hit 80%).
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Primary budget surplus — only ~6 countries globally manage this.
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Bond yields down ≈2%, reducing future borrowing costs.
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Precious metals boom boosting revenue 🪙⬆️.
3️⃣ New Inflation Target
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Formalised 3% target, with a 2–4% band 🎯.
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Helps competitiveness for exporters like citrus 🍊.
4️⃣ MPC Outlook
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Inflation at 3.4% — within band
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Simon expects a rate cut on Thursday ✂️💸.
5️⃣ Credit Rating Upgrade
S&P: Upgraded SA from 3-notches Junk → 2-notches Junk.
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First upgrade in 16 years ⭐
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Positive outlook — another upgrade possible.
Moody's review coming in December.
6️⃣ Load Shedding Gone (for now)
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Effectively no load shedding for months ⚡😊.
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Operation Vulindlela turning to Transnet next 🚢.
7️⃣ GNU Functioning Smoothly
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Budget passed without drama
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Coalition politics fading into the background — exactly where they should be.
⚠️ But:
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Chronic unemployment (31%+) 😔
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Inequality, poverty, crime remain severe issues → Growth is the only way to tackle these sustainably.
🎤 Year-End Power Hour — Book Now!
Theme: Position Your Portfolio for 2026
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Limited in-person seats
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Webcast available
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Simon reviews last year's predictions (and mocks himself 🤣)
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Then looks at 2026: gold, rand, upgrades, tariffs, etc.
👉 Book here
📈 Company Results Round-Up 🐔 Astral Foods
A horror first half… turned around:
What improved:
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Avian flu mostly gone; vaccination up to 30%
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Power issues stabilised
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Independent water supply
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Yellow maize prices lower 🌽⬇️
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Pricing back to Dec 2023 levels
Outlook: CEO Gary Arnold expects a strong FY to Sept 2025. More upside if maize stays low.
🚗 WeBuyCars
Trading update spooked the market — PE dropped from mid-20s → high teens.
Pressures:
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Cheap new Chinese cars (R300k range) compete aggressively 🇨🇳
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Slower earnings growth (~mid-teens)
Their response:
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Lower buying prices in segments competing with Chinese brands
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Future tailwind: cheap Chinese cars will enter second-hand market soon
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Record 16,000 monthly sales
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Scale still growing
Valuation: Simon sees value emerging in the low-40s 👀.
💼 Ninety One (Asset Manager)
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Strong numbers; bull markets = good for AUM
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Market sold it off (priced for perfection?)
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PE ~11, DY ~6% — cheap metrics
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Analysts: 2 buys, 2 holds,…
Links in the notes 5
- https://www.justonelap.com/91DINC
- https://www.justonelap.com/91GINC
- https://justonelap.com/video-ninety-one-lists-two-actively-managed-income-etfs/
- https://justonelap.com/events/standard-bank-power-hour-position-your-portfolio-for-2026/
- https://www.koyfin.com/get-discount-from-a-friend/?ref_id=OkPOCaUd3dgHK16XlMxXM
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