Podcasts · John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism

The False Promise of Tactical Nuclear Weapons | Episode 5

24 Aug 2026 · 34 min · S1 E5

There is considerable evidence that the US is interested in “expanding its options” for using its nuclear arsenal. In particular, it appears that the Pentagon would like to increase its reliance on tactical nuclear weapons for both deterrence and warfighting should deterrence fail. I will argue that fighting a war with tactical nuclear weapons is unlikely to produce a meaningful military victory and is likely to have catastrophic consequences. In fact, the US and NATO embraced this very option in the 1950s in the context of a war in Europe, only to realize that they had to find a different way to deter the Soviet Union and fight it should deterrence break down. The same basic logic that applied then still applies today. Simply put, tactical nuclear weapons are not war-winning weapons. ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 00:00 Introduction 00:31 Why tactical nuclear weapons, why now 01:52 From massive retaliation to flexible options 03:04 The real driver: weakened conventional forces 04:46 Ukraine, Iran, and depleted munitions 05:07 Balancing conventional and nuclear deterrence 06:24 The appeal of tactical nukes on the battlefield 07:04 Why that thinking is misguided 07:55 Defending Europe in the 1950s 10:26 NATO's nuclear answer — and why the US never adopted "no first use" 11:54 Carte Blanche: the June 1955 war game 14:41 Destroying Germany to save Germany 15:38 The escalation problem 16:47 Command and control in a nuclear war 18:50 MC 14/2: NATO doubles down in 1957 20:20 Shift one: rebuilding conventional deterrence 23:03 Shift two: nuclear weapons as coercion, not warfighting 25:19 A handful of weapons and the slippery slope 28:00 MC 14/2 vs. MC 14/3 29:30 Recap: how NATO moved away from warfighting 31:30 What this means for the US today 33:49 Conclusion ———————————————————— MUSIC "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.