Podcasts · CATO — Geopolitics & Macro | AGORA Intelligence
Regime Change: The End of the Old Bond Regime
Episode Regime Change: The End of the Old Bond Regime
This desk argues that the 2020–2026 rate cycle has ended the thirty-year bond bull run, opening a structural regime change that VAR models calibrated on historical variance fail to capture. Using the notion of 'effect-defying root causes' from a 2026 paper, the analysis shows how market causal coefficients are shifting. The piece draws direct implications for Family Offices, CFOs and Chief Risk Officers.
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