Podcasts · In the Money with Amber Kanwar

David Rosenberg: The Stock Market Is Telling You There's No Risk. It's Wrong.

11 Jun 2026 · 1 h 07 min · Episode 144

Episode David Rosenberg: The Stock Market Is Telling You There's No Risk. It's Wrong.

0:00 1:07:00

Everyone calls David Rosenberg a permabear but he says he’s fully invested, just in completely different places than the consensus.

On this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Rosenberg breaks down why he’s still in the market despite sounding the alarm on what he sees as extreme valuations, bubble-like behaviour, and a dangerous level of investor complacency. From a “teflon market” that shrugs off every shock, to an equity market where investors are effectively paying to take risk, he explains why this cycle feels eerily similar to the late-90s tech mania.

He pushes back on the dominant narrative around AI and government spending, arguing the real economy is far weaker beneath the surface. Strip out AI, and growth looks sluggish. Strip out a handful of mega-cap names, and market returns look far less impressive. For Rosenberg, this is a sentiment-driven market—one where momentum is masking rising risks.

At the same time, Rosenberg is leaning heavily into an area most investors have written off: government bonds. He’s bullish on short-term bonds in both Canada and the U.S., arguing markets are mispricing the path of interest rates. While investors brace for more inflation and potential hikes, he sees disinflation ahead—driven by weak wage growth and slowing demand—which could force central banks to cut. In his view, that disconnect creates a compelling opportunity in the front end of the bond market.

In Pro Picks, he lays out exactly where he is putting money to work in addition to government bonds. He’s bullish on commodities across the board—gold, base metals, energy infrastructure, and agriculture—driven by long-term supply constraints and a shift toward resource security. He also highlights defense as a stealth tech play with strong earnings visibility, and sees clean energy as a geopolitical trade tied to energy independence. His message is clear: stay invested, but stay disciplined—because when the cycle turns, valuation will matter again.

Timestamps 00:00 Trailer 02:10 Intro 04:15 Is Rosie surprised at the teflon market? 08:25 Echoes of 1999. Investors are paying to take on risk 12:15 Government bonds have a unique safety characteristic 14:25 We’ve reached the stage where people think the stock market is riskless 16:05 Dave doesn’t follow the herd…ever 18:55 Dave’s model portfolio 23:10 Look at the economy ex AI

27:45 The midterms will end the gravy train 31:15: These things go in cycles, Dave isn’t going to time it, and he’s going to invest very selectively 37:20 Hamilton ETFs: Mixed Asset Allocation ETF - MIX

39:30 Making a bet on the future of commodity inflation, Dave likes the hard asset theme 42:45 Why Dave expects to see rate cuts not rate hikes 48:30 Why Dave likes the Canadian banks 53:10 Why Dave isn’t too worried about the USMCA 55:50: David Rosenberg’s Pro Picks (commodities, defence, clean energy)