Podcasts · In the Money with Amber Kanwar
The S&P 500 Is Hiding a Much Uglier Market
· 1 h 06 min · Episode 173
Episode The S&P 500 Is Hiding a Much Uglier Market
Mike Vinokur thinks a market washout could be just two to four weeks away—and that may be the time to buy. The Portfolio Manager & Senior Wealth Advisor at Propellus Wealth Partners with iA Private Wealth has raised cash to nearly 30% in his growth portfolio as the S&P 500’s double-digit gain masks a much uglier market underneath. High-quality stocks are down 20%, 30% and even 40%, and Mike joins Amber Kanwar to explain why he thinks more pain could be coming before a potentially compelling buying opportunity emerges. He also breaks down the impact of higher-for-longer interest rates and why he’s cautious on parts of the AI trade.
In the Mailbag, Mike weighs in on the pullback in U.S. banks and explains why he prefers life insurers over expensive Canadian banks. He looks at whether Blackstone (BX), KKR (KKR) and Brookfield (BN) have fallen far enough to become attractive, whether McDonald’s (MCD) is finally getting cheap enough to buy and what Berkshire Hathaway may see in Lennar (LEN). Plus, after a 75% collapse in Fair Isaac (FICO), is the stock finally an opportunity—or still a falling knife?
In Pro Picks, Mike revisits his past ideas Alphabet (GOOGL), Air Lease and Lincoln National (LNC), including why he sold Google after a massive run but continues to own Lincoln National. His new picks are Amazon (AMZN), Uber (UBER) and Talen Energy (TLN), as he looks for businesses with strong fundamentals, attractive valuations and enough margin of safety to weather a more challenging market.
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Timestamps
0:00 Trailer
2:08 Intro
4:01 Why the average stock is struggling
7:10 A washout is coming in the next 2-4 weeks
10:17 High interest rates and the bond market
13:11 How Mike approaches AI stocks
15:44 U.S. banks: correction or opportunity?
19:56 Why Mike is avoiding Canadian banks
22:05 Private equity, KKR, and valuation (BX, KKR, BN)
27:27 Is McDonald’s a value opportunity? (MCD)
32:26 Why Berkshire is buying LENNAR (LEN)
34:47 Toll Brothers and timing the housing market (TOL)
38:44 FICO, Equifax, and regulatory risk (FICO)
43:01 Mike’s past picks: Google, Lincoln National and Air Lease (GOOGL, LNC)
50:00 New picks: Amazon, Uber and Talen Energy (AMZN, UBER, TLN)
63:28 Closing bell: salsa dancing and travel
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