Uncertainty, Intentions and Great Power Conflict — Sebastian Rosato
· 58 min · S4 E24
Episode Uncertainty, Intentions and Great Power Conflict — Sebastian Rosato
How certain can great powers ever be about the intentions of their rivals, and what happens when that uncertainty becomes a permanent feature of international politics? In this episode, Professor Sebastian Rosato joins us to discuss 'intentions pessimism', the limits of information, and what uncertainty means for great-power conflict, diplomacy, and the study of international relations.
Sebastian Rosato is Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, where he is also a fellow of the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, the Liu Institute for Asia and Asian Studies, and the Nanovic Institute for European Studies.
Selected Publications
• Europe United: Power Politics and the Making of the European Community • Intentions in Great Power Politics: Uncertainty and the Roots of Conflict • How States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy (with John J. Mearsheimer)
Chapters
00:00 Introduction
02:10 Is 'intentions pessimism' a structural or epistemological argument—or are the two inseparable?
04:38 Endemic uncertainty in international relations
06:33 The role of first- and secondhand information
12:48 Waltzian neorealism vs. 'intentions pessimism'
15:27 Has 'intentions pessimism' changed Professor Rosato's stance on IR?
18:11 Is 'intentions pessimism' applicable to great powers only?
20:44 Truism and falsifiability questions
22:20 Which IR theory draws the most criticism of 'intentions pessimism'?
24:50 Liberal institutionalism and constructivism vs. 'intentions pessimism'
28:05 How 'intentions pessimism' works across different regime types
31:41 Case study selection and theory grounding
37:42 Material vs. ideational explanations
40:07 Is 'intentions pessimism' about states or leaders?
42:50 Signals intelligence, satellite surveillance, and AI: do new technologies change the information problem?
46:17 The role of diplomacy and statecraft
47:54 Uncertainty in foreign policy analysis
53:46 How do we make progress in IR theory?
Follow & Further Resources
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Links in the notes 11
- https://politicalscience.nd.edu/people/sebastian-rosato/
- https://cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801478499/europe-united
- https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300253023/intentions-in-great-power-politics/
- https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300279870/how-states-think/
- https://theirthinker.substack.com/
- https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/
- https://x.com/theirthinker
- https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/
- https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.social
- https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/
- https://acast.com/privacy
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