Podcasts · Wall Street Wildlife Investing Podcast

The $45B Near-Miss - How Leverage Almost Ate a Genius Call (E144)

9 Aug 2026 · 57 min · Episode 144

A 24-year-old prodigy builds a $45 billion fund on a single correct idea about AI, then watches 67% of it evaporate in a month. This week, Badger and Monkey dissect the brutal drawdown at Situational Awareness, the hedge fund that was right about everything except how to survive being right. It's not dead, but it's a gut-check case study in what leverage does even when your thesis holds. What went wrong, what it reveals about greed, ego, and leverage, and what every retail investor can learn before the next correction hits them.

⚠️ A $45B fund lost 67% in 30 days while holding positions that were fundamentally CORRECT — here's the brutal lesson on why being right isn't enough

🧠 Krzysztof names his greatest investing mistake over decades — and it's not what most people expect

🎯 Luke's mechanical 15% rule saved him from the $RKLB round-trip — and it has nothing to do with predicting the market

📊 $RKLB did a 58% round trip in 10 weeks — Badger walks through exactly how he managed it in real time

🤖 Was Leopold Aschenbrenner actually wrong about AI infrastructure? The contrarian case that's making Krzysztof rethink his entire portfolio

🎓 4X leverage explained plainly: why the structure of your bet can wreck you even when the call itself is right

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If you want to see our furry faces, this podcast is also available on YouTube at youtube.com/@WallStreetWildlife?sub_confirmation=1

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Monkey’s “Zen, Nietzsche, How to Live” Substack:

firephilosophy.substack.com

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To use the same portfolio tracking tool as Luke, check-out:

portseido.com/?fpr=lukehallard

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Disclosure: Wall Street Wildlife hosts and guests are not financial advisors, and nothing they say on this show is formal advice or a recommendation

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Keywords:

Situational Awareness hedge fund, Leopold Aschenbrenner, AI infrastructure stocks, leverage investing, hedge fund blowup, $RKLB, Rocket Lab, position sizing, portfolio risk management, greed and investing, ego investing mistakes, AI drawdown 2024, $ASTS, AST SpaceMobile, $IRIN, margin call, 4x leverage explained, investing psychology, Kelly Criterion, long short fund, Citadel, Micron earnings, AI data centers, retail investor mistakes, Wall Street Wildlife

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