Podcasts · Decoder with Nilay Patel
Prediction markets want to be the news
· 45 min
Episode Prediction markets want to be the news
Today let’s talk about prediction markets, which continue to insert themselves into the news cycle and the news in increasingly weird, unsettling, and potentially illegal ways.
My guest today is Liz Lopatto, a senior reporter at The Verge who owns what we cheerfully call the chaos beat. Liz has been writing a lot about prediction markets lately and especially why they all seem so intent on being perceived as sources of news — a position which directly incentivizes insider trading. That in turn creates a long list of very predictable problems.
Read the full interview transcript on The Verge.
Links:
• Prediction markets want to eat the news | The Verge • How anonymous bettors cashed In on the Iran strike | NYT • With Iran, Kalshi & Polymarket Bet on the Depravity Economy | 404 Media • Polymarket pulls bet on nuclear detonation in 2026 | 404 Media • Polymarket defends betting on war as ‘invaluable’ | The Verge • Someone made a ton of money betting on Maduro’s capture | The Verge • Are prediction markets gambling? Robinhood CEO bets no | Decoder • Prediction markets roll out war bets beyond Washington’s reach | Bloomberg • Polymarket partners with Substack for some reason | The Verge • It’s MAGA v Broligarch in the battle over prediction markets | The Verge
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Credits:
Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.
Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane.
The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.
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Links in the notes 13
- https://www.theverge.com/podcast/889177/prediction-markets-news-gambling-polymarket-kalshi-iran-war-regulation
- https://www.theverge.com/business/881967/polymarket-kalshi-journalism-sponsorship-ad
- https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/upshot/prediction-markets-iran-strikes.html
- https://www.404media.co/with-iran-war-kalshi-and-polymarket-bet-that-the-depravity-economy-has-no-bottom/
- https://www.404media.co/polymarket-pulls-bet-on-nuclear-detonation-in-2026/
- https://www.theverge.com/tech/887040/polymarket-iran-war-betting-invaluable
- https://www.theverge.com/news/853765/someone-made-a-ton-of-money-betting-on-maduros-capture
- https://www.theverge.com/decoder-podcast-with-nilay-patel/645822/robinhood-ceo-vlad-tenev
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-04/prediction-markets-roll-out-new-war-bets-beyond-washington-reach
- https://www.theverge.com/news/881292/substack-isnt-just-known-for-platforming-and-monetizing-nazis-now
- https://www.theverge.com/policy/881139/broligarch-prediction-markets
- https://www.theverge.com/subscribe
- https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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