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Talk

Perfectly unpredictable: Why forecasting produces useful rubbish

Alderman Professor Michael Mainelli · Gresham College

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About

At the heart of commerce is the notion that perfect markets aren't predictable, yet great efforts are expended on proving this notion wrong. This contradiction perplexes us as cyberspace's automated and not-so-virtual economies mirror our world, companies deploy innovative incipient trend detection and the apparent power of forecasting tools seems immense. Does increasing predictive power mean that prices are less important signals of preference? Can we predict new markets?

The talk

  1. Perfectly unpredictable: Why forecasting produces useful rubbish 2008-01-28 · YouTube

Credits and licence

Institution
Gresham College
Speaker
Alderman Professor Michael Mainelli
Year
2008
Level
For everyone
Language
English
Subjects
Business and management, Philosophy
Source
Gresham College
Licence
Educational use (Gresham College's terms), as Gresham College states it. Gresham College's terms
Attribution
Gresham College states: "We positively encourage the use of the Gresham College lecture transcripts, audio and video files for educational purposes. However, we do not allow use of Gresham College materials for commercial, personal or institutional gain."
Who can watch
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