6: Models of Foreign Policy Making — Read

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Introduction

The Cuban Missile Crisis, occurring in October 1962, was a 13-day confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union over the placement of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba. It is considered one of the most critical moments of the Cold War, with the world on the brink of nuclear war. The crisis began when U.S. spy planes discovered the missile sites in Cuba. In response, President John F. Kennedy imposed a naval blockade around Cuba, demanding the removal of the missiles. After intense negotiations, Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev agreed to withdraw the missiles in exchange for the U.S. promise not to invade Cuba and the removal of U.S. missiles from Turkey.

Graham Allison's book, The Essence of Decision (1971) sought to understand how decisions are made in a moment of crisis. Allison challenges the traditional notion of the rational model that had been the dominant theory in foreign policy decision-making. To illustrate his point, Allison used the example of the Cuban Missile Crisis and three models of interpretation to answer the following questions:

Why did the USSR place nuclear missiles in Cuba?
Why did the United States impose a blockade on Cuba in response?
Why did the USSR withdraw its missiles from Cuba?

Learning Objectives

Describe the major decision-making theories in IR including the Rational Actor Model, the Organizational Process Model, and the Bureaucratic Politics Model.
Assess the critique of the Rational Actor Model.
Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of each decision-making model.

6.1: Rational Actor Model
Discusses the Rational Actor Model (RAM), which treats states as rational entities aiming to maximize national interest, illustrated by the Soviet Union's nuclear missile placement in Cuba. It examines the U.S. response through a blockade to counterbalance this action. However, RAM faces criticism for oversimplifying decision-making in crises, ignoring the complex internal and external pressures leaders face, particularly during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
6.2: Organizational Process Model
Discusses the Organizational Process Model (OPM), which illustrates how bureaucratic procedures and standard operating procedures influence state decision-making. It highlights examples from the USSR's missile construction in Cuba and U.S. restraint in military action, demonstrating that established routines can limit adaptability. During crises, policymakers tend to choose familiar options to reduce uncertainty instead of considering all alternatives.
6.3: Bureaucratic Politics Model
Discusses the Bureaucratic Politics Model (BPM), highlighting that policy decisions result from negotiations among government officials with competing interests rather than from a single rational actor. It examines Khrushchev's Cuba decisions, influenced by internal pressures and challenges, and Kennedy's response, shaped by political pressures that sought a balance between assertiveness and restraint.
6.4: Implications of the Essence of Decision
Critiques traditional rational actor models in political science, using the Cuban Missile Crisis as an example to illustrate their limitations. It introduces Organizational Process and Bureaucratic Politics models as alternatives, warning that reliance on rational models can lead to flawed assumptions and disastrous outcomes, as evidenced by events like the Pearl Harbor attack and the challenges of mutually assured destruction in nuclear warfare.
6.5: Criticisms of the Essence of Decision
Discusses critiques of Allison's "Essence of Decision," noting that some believe it oversimplifies decision-making by relying on three overlapping models. Critics highlighted a preference for rationalism, as supported by Milton Friedman, while Allison emphasized the need for predictive accuracy through evidence. Despite initial skepticism regarding his assumptions, historical evidence later supported Allison's claims.
6.6: Conclusion
Highlights the importance of analyzing various levels and the roles of different actors in decision-making processes. It prepares for an in-depth examination of the influence of international organizations on the choices made by leaders and states.
6.7: Deeper Dive- International Organizations
International organizations, including intergovernmental bodies like the UN and various non-governmental groups, are integral to global governance and regulate essential daily activities ranging from aviation and telecommunications to humanitarian aid. While sovereign states generally retain ultimate authority, these organizations are instrumental in establishing international norms and coordinating collective action on global challenges such as human rights, poverty, and climate change.
6.8: Glossary
Explores significant events in U.S.-Cuba relations during the early 1960s, focusing on the Bay of Pigs Invasion and the Cuban Missile Crisis. It introduces Graham Allison's decision-making models from "The Essence of Decision": the Rational Actor Model, Bureaucratic Politics Model, and Organizational Process Model. Additionally, it discusses military strategies like Mutually Assured Destruction and naval blockades, highlighting the intricacies of foreign policy decisions.
6.9: Additional Readings
6.10: Discussion Questions
Discusses three decision-making models: the Rational Actor Model (RAM), which emphasizes logical choices for maximum benefit; the Organizational Process Model (OPM), which focuses on procedures and group dynamics; and the Bureaucratic Politics Model (BPM), which addresses power struggles in governance.

Thumbnail: Blockade Over Cuba, 1962 by Wikimedia Commons via Picryl is licensed PDM 1.0

This page titled 6: Models of Foreign Policy Making was last modified on Thu, 20 Aug 2026 18:05:22 GMT and is shared under a CC BY-NC 4.0 license and was authored, remixed, and/or curated by Robert Stockwell.

Contents

Text

Introduction

Learning Objectives