# Eight Surprising Team Projections

An episode of [NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/680904259), 16 Jul 2026, 52 min.

Audio: https://pdrl.fm/91be81/podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/claritaspod.com/measure/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/9ce11dad-e86a-444f-ba83-ae27003475be/0a544b8a-2855-41c8-817c-b4890183b41e/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=deff018f-4b51-4501-937c-ae27003475d1

Gregg Rosenthal is joined by Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy to discuss eight of the most surprising team projections for the 2026 season. Then, Dan Pizzuta, FTN Almanac writer, joins to dive deeper into some key team projections, including the Bills, Dolphins, and Lions. NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcasts See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:04] Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're enjoying our last weekend
[0:08] Speaker 1: before training camp begins. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm in Massachusetts,
[0:12] Speaker 1: visiting the parents while I can before it gets too crazy,
[0:16] Speaker 1: and talking to another Massachusetts resident.
[0:20] Speaker 2: Yes, you know you love him, Aaron Shotts.
[0:23] Speaker 1: He just wrote Aaron Shotts's FTN Almanac, also known formerly
[0:28] Speaker 1: as the Football Outsiders Almanac way back in the day
[0:30] Speaker 1: football perspectives. I was ready then for my money, the
[0:34] Speaker 1: best season preview out there. We had him on last
[0:38] Speaker 1: year to give us some surprising team projections, and we
[0:41] Speaker 1: have them back.
[0:42] Speaker 2: How are you doing, Aaron.
[0:43] Speaker 3: I'm good man. I move got it out a few
[0:45] Speaker 3: days earlier this year, and now I'm ready to talk
[0:47] Speaker 3: to everybody about it. I'm ready for training camps. I'm
[0:50] Speaker 3: ready for our long summer without the NFL to be over. Yeah,
[0:54] Speaker 3: and I'm very excited.
[0:56] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[0:57] Speaker 1: I felt bad for all our UK listeners watching that
[1:00] Speaker 1: game against Argentina, but all that means is you got
[1:03] Speaker 1: to just turn your attention to the other football.
[1:05] Speaker 3: And yes, I've enjoyed I have enjoyed the other football
[1:08] Speaker 3: for the last few weeks, definitely, But I am an
[1:10] Speaker 3: NFL guy through and through.
[1:12] Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm gonna frame this just as a conversation
[1:15] Speaker 1: about a few teams in terms of their projections that
[1:17] Speaker 1: caught my eye. Of course, Aaron is the author, the
[1:21] Speaker 1: creator of DVOA, which is to me like the best
[1:26] Speaker 1: overall metric, and that's part of the projections that go
[1:29] Speaker 1: into each and every season. And just we're going to
[1:31] Speaker 1: start with the teams that stood out to me, and
[1:34] Speaker 1: let's start with the Houston Texans. I am a huge
[1:37] Speaker 1: fan of the Houston Texans. I have been considering all
[1:40] Speaker 1: off season picking them to make and or win the
[1:43] Speaker 1: Super Bowl, and then.
[1:45] Speaker 2: I see, you got my back.
[1:47] Speaker 1: I don't know how if that makes me want to
[1:48] Speaker 1: take a more or not, because now it won't be
[1:51] Speaker 1: as like original. You have the Texans as the AFC favorites.
[1:55] Speaker 1: Your numbers say they have about twice the amount of
[1:59] Speaker 1: odds to win the Super Bowl as any other AFC team.
[2:03] Speaker 1: It's a pretty clear top three teams in the NFL
[2:06] Speaker 1: for you too, in terms of DVOA, it's the Seahawks, Rams,
[2:09] Speaker 1: and the Texans. What are your numbers and your model
[2:13] Speaker 1: telling you about this Texans team.
[2:15] Speaker 3: Yeah, first of all, let me say, even if we're
[2:17] Speaker 3: a little bit wrong about the Texans. There's enough of
[2:21] Speaker 3: a gap between them and the rest of the AFC
[2:23] Speaker 3: that they still look like the best team in the AFC. So,
[2:27] Speaker 3: first of all, their defense is really good. We know
[2:30] Speaker 3: that we talk every year about defense being harder to
[2:35] Speaker 3: predict than offense, but there's still plenty of indicators of
[2:40] Speaker 3: their defense still being really good. If you were going
[2:42] Speaker 3: to pick a defense to not regress, it would be
[2:45] Speaker 3: a defense full of young stars where it's based more
[2:49] Speaker 3: on the talent than the skip. Like that is what
[2:52] Speaker 3: you would pick. So obviously, look, there's a chance everyone
[2:55] Speaker 3: gets injured. That's true of every team. As far as
[2:58] Speaker 3: their offense goes, here is the s. In the regular
[3:01] Speaker 3: season last year, c J. Stroud ranked eleventh in passing
[3:07] Speaker 3: Dvoa eleventh. He was horrible in the playoffs, like there's
[3:13] Speaker 3: no question about it, Like you can't mince any words
[3:15] Speaker 3: about that. He also didn't have Nico Collins and Schultz
[3:19] Speaker 3: for one of those games. If the offensive line is improved,
[3:23] Speaker 3: they should have an actual running game this year with Montgomery,
[3:28] Speaker 3: and therefore we think that their offense is above average.
[3:31] Speaker 3: Now the projections came out with it in the top ten.
[3:34] Speaker 3: If they don't make the top ten in offense, but
[3:37] Speaker 3: they're still like fourteenth or fifteenth, that's still the best
[3:40] Speaker 3: team in the AFC with that defense. Yeah.
[3:43] Speaker 1: And to be clear, look when I say they have
[3:45] Speaker 1: double the odds to make or win the Super Bowl
[3:48] Speaker 1: as any other team in the AFC, it is still
[3:50] Speaker 1: a very top heavy but deep AFC where you have,
[3:55] Speaker 1: you know, five six teams with legitimate chances to make it,
[3:58] Speaker 1: but you do have the Texans decently ahead of the pack.
[4:00] Speaker 1: I do wonder on the offense because I love seeing
[4:02] Speaker 1: that projection. I like the idea, you know, from a
[4:05] Speaker 1: non numbers point of view, that you have continuity at
[4:07] Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator. Can can they be better on that side?
[4:11] Speaker 1: Kind of getting used to that offense. The changes on
[4:14] Speaker 1: the offensive line though, have been so dramatic for a
[4:17] Speaker 1: second straight season. Some of it when you when you
[4:21] Speaker 1: it all makes sense to me on paper, But I
[4:23] Speaker 1: do wonder kind of how the offensive line specifically and
[4:27] Speaker 1: all those changes. It's veterans, it's rookies, it's a it's
[4:31] Speaker 1: a little bit of a mix, you know, is thrown
[4:33] Speaker 1: out to being into a top ten offense.
[4:35] Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's because of everything else. It's because
[4:39] Speaker 3: of c J. Stroud, I think is good, and I
[4:43] Speaker 3: think Nico Collins is very good, and Tank Dell should
[4:46] Speaker 3: be back, and Montgomery improves them in the running game,
[4:50] Speaker 3: I will fully admit, and this will this will come
[4:52] Speaker 3: up with some of the other projections. The thing that
[4:55] Speaker 3: my projection system has the hardest time with is changes
[4:59] Speaker 3: in the offense line from y That is the hardest
[5:02] Speaker 3: thing for me to turn into a number and put
[5:06] Speaker 3: into a projection system. But they made improvements and they
[5:11] Speaker 3: don't need to have a great offensive line. They need
[5:13] Speaker 3: to not have one of the five worst offensive lines
[5:16] Speaker 3: in the.
[5:16] Speaker 1: League, right and I think there is a route to
[5:19] Speaker 1: doing that. And the running game is so important.
[5:22] Speaker 3: And c J.
[5:23] Speaker 1: Stroud, you know you're speaking my language. I totally saw
[5:26] Speaker 1: that from him. Last year was an up and down season,
[5:28] Speaker 1: including the playoffs, were totally down. But I think it
[5:30] Speaker 1: can be a lot better this year. So there first,
[5:34] Speaker 1: it's not too surprising. The Bills are next, and I
[5:37] Speaker 1: should have mentioned at the top of the show, we're
[5:39] Speaker 1: doing a two part show kind of talking to some
[5:41] Speaker 1: of the writers from the FDN Almanac.
[5:43] Speaker 2: Dan Pezuda is going to come up later in the
[5:45] Speaker 2: show and give.
[5:46] Speaker 1: Us one number that helps explain the teams that he
[5:50] Speaker 1: wrote about, and that includes the AFC East, which includes
[5:52] Speaker 1: the number two favorite in the AFC right now, the Bills.
[5:55] Speaker 1: But what I thought was interesting is noticing next up
[5:58] Speaker 1: the Bengals and the raven and I'm going to kind
[6:00] Speaker 1: of pair them together. Your projection model has the Bengals
[6:04] Speaker 1: as the third best chance to make the playoffs a
[6:06] Speaker 1: strong bounce back season nine point eight wins, which for
[6:10] Speaker 1: your model is pretty high, Like I said, third in
[6:12] Speaker 1: the league. And then the Ravens, who have the same
[6:15] Speaker 1: win total projected. But I found it interesting you had
[6:19] Speaker 1: them sixteenth overall in offense, sixteenth in defense, and sixteenth
[6:24] Speaker 1: and special teams. They could not be a more average
[6:26] Speaker 1: team in terms of your projections and even your win total,
[6:30] Speaker 1: Like wasn't crazy.
[6:31] Speaker 2: And yet you know, maybe it's the schedule. Is it
[6:34] Speaker 2: as simple as.
[6:34] Speaker 1: That that they have that high of a win total,
[6:37] Speaker 1: the Bengals and Ravens kind of matching up there.
[6:40] Speaker 3: Yeah, everyone in the AFC North has an easy schedule.
[6:43] Speaker 3: I believe they played the South divisions, especially the NFC South,
[6:46] Speaker 3: which still looks like the weakest division in the game,
[6:49] Speaker 3: So that's a big part for Cincinnati and Baltimore. I
[6:52] Speaker 3: feel like Baltimore should be higher. Are numbers right? For
[6:55] Speaker 3: people who know DVOA, The twenty three and twenty four
[6:58] Speaker 3: Ravens were two of the best teams we've ever measured.
[7:02] Speaker 3: It feels like the rebound from last year's disappointment should
[7:05] Speaker 3: be more than this, But it didn't come out with
[7:09] Speaker 3: as much of a rebound as I thought it was
[7:11] Speaker 3: gonna come out with, especially on offense. And I definitely
[7:15] Speaker 3: buy the argument that no offense with a healthy Lamar
[7:17] Speaker 3: Jackson can be sixteenth. I also would say you can't
[7:21] Speaker 3: go into the season expecting you're going to get seventeen
[7:24] Speaker 3: games of a healthy Lamar Jackson. But with the schedule
[7:27] Speaker 3: being easier for those teams and the Steelers, I think
[7:30] Speaker 3: not being as good another year older for Aaron Rodgers,
[7:34] Speaker 3: new coaching staff, etc. I mean, if we thought Mike
[7:37] Speaker 3: Tomlin had coaching magic, the fact that he's not there
[7:39] Speaker 3: anymore means there is not coaching magic. And Cleveland is
[7:44] Speaker 3: the worst team in the league. So I think that
[7:47] Speaker 3: the Ravens and Cincinnati are both really good playoff playoff opportunities.
[7:52] Speaker 2: Yeah, I do too.
[7:53] Speaker 1: I was surprised a little bit, like how easy the
[7:56] Speaker 1: schedule is that you have the Bengals as the easiest
[7:57] Speaker 1: schedule in the league, and like I said, the Ravens
[7:59] Speaker 1: fourth or fifth, And look, your model had the Patriots
[8:02] Speaker 1: as the easiest scheduling the league going into last year.
[8:04] Speaker 2: It played out that way.
[8:05] Speaker 1: The Bills, because they had the same out of division
[8:07] Speaker 1: schedule for the most part, had the second easiest schedule
[8:10] Speaker 1: in the league, and it really helped both of those teams.
[8:12] Speaker 2: These things matter.
[8:13] Speaker 1: What are you seeing though, in terms of the Bengals,
[8:15] Speaker 1: who haven't gotten a healthy Joe Burrow where the defense
[8:18] Speaker 1: was better late last season, But at best, it's average
[8:22] Speaker 1: talent and average coaching, and I think they would take average,
[8:26] Speaker 1: but my instinct at this point would be they have
[8:28] Speaker 1: below average coaching and then the talent with some of
[8:32] Speaker 1: the imports that they made, might be around average. What
[8:35] Speaker 1: are you seeing overall with how the Bengals could get
[8:38] Speaker 1: there to the top of the AFC North.
[8:39] Speaker 3: It's offense. I mean, we have them projected with the
[8:41] Speaker 3: top five offense. When you look at how first of all,
[8:44] Speaker 3: how well they played with Flacco, which was pretty good,
[8:48] Speaker 3: and then when you look at Burrow hopefully playing for
[8:51] Speaker 3: the whole season, and the receivers that they have and
[8:53] Speaker 3: Chase Brown and everything. It looks like a top five offense.
[8:57] Speaker 3: The defense projects to be a little bit better than
[8:59] Speaker 3: last year. One of the things I will say is
[9:02] Speaker 3: that it goes against common sense, but teams that improve
[9:08] Speaker 3: significantly in the second half of the year, that does
[9:11] Speaker 3: not necessarily roll over to the next year. There is
[9:15] Speaker 3: no correlation between how much better you are in the
[9:18] Speaker 3: second half of the season than the first half of
[9:21] Speaker 3: the season and how much better you are the following year.
[9:24] Speaker 3: I know that sounds crazy. I don't think it's explain
[9:28] Speaker 3: it like we can always this. This guy got better,
[9:31] Speaker 3: these young players got better, these players learned the scheme,
[9:35] Speaker 3: and now they're in the second year of the scheme.
[9:36] Speaker 3: There's usually a good way to explain it. But the
[9:38] Speaker 3: Bengals defense improving so significantly in the second half last
[9:42] Speaker 3: year is not necessarily going to carry over to this year.
[9:46] Speaker 3: But we think their offense is really good.
[9:48] Speaker 2: It makes sense to me.
[9:49] Speaker 1: It always annoys me whenever we talk about players who
[9:51] Speaker 1: end the season poorly and they take that end of
[9:55] Speaker 1: the season is more important than October or November is like,
[9:58] Speaker 1: all those games count totally equally. If you're able to
[10:00] Speaker 1: excel at that high level at the professional level, it
[10:03] Speaker 1: means you have it in you. You just want to
[10:04] Speaker 1: see the consistency. It doesn't count anymore just because it's
[10:07] Speaker 1: at the end, except for when it does and the
[10:09] Speaker 1: playoffs start. But you know you can't control that. The
[10:11] Speaker 1: Colts are next on my list of just surprising projections
[10:14] Speaker 1: when I went through them. You have them as a
[10:16] Speaker 1: better than fifty percent chance to make the playoffs.
[10:20] Speaker 2: You have them.
[10:21] Speaker 1: I wouldn't say it's far ahead of the Jaguars, but
[10:23] Speaker 1: we're going to get to the Jaguars.
[10:24] Speaker 2: You have as a mediocre team, but.
[10:26] Speaker 1: It's it's enough ahead of the Jaguars that I consider
[10:29] Speaker 1: it significant. And like I said, in your models, the
[10:32] Speaker 1: Colts are making the playoffs more often than not. I'm
[10:36] Speaker 1: fascinated by this team because the Jets have that pick,
[10:39] Speaker 1: and I just think that there is a scenario where
[10:43] Speaker 1: the Jets end up having two top five picks, or
[10:46] Speaker 1: they're able to control the draft and this Colt season
[10:48] Speaker 1: really goes poor. I see them as a high variance team.
[10:51] Speaker 1: Maybe you guys do too, but ultimately it came out
[10:55] Speaker 1: on average to pretty good. What about the Colts? Has
[10:59] Speaker 1: your system relatively bullish?
[11:01] Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'll admit that subjectively, if you asked
[11:05] Speaker 3: me my opinion rather than the numbers, I would put
[11:07] Speaker 3: the Jaguars ahead of them. They were fifth in DVOA
[11:11] Speaker 3: last year, even with the decline at the end of
[11:14] Speaker 3: the season playing Rivers and Riley Leonard at quarterback fifth
[11:18] Speaker 3: they were fifth last year. So to have him go
[11:20] Speaker 3: from fifth to fourteenth, which is where they're projected, is
[11:23] Speaker 3: a big drop, and we just don't have them dropping anymore. Now.
[11:28] Speaker 3: It's possible that I'm sort of over projecting Jones as
[11:31] Speaker 3: the quarterback because he's not going to be able to
[11:35] Speaker 3: be as good as he was in the first half
[11:36] Speaker 3: of last year with his achilles hurt, because the mobility
[11:40] Speaker 3: is so important for his game, and we also don't
[11:44] Speaker 3: know whether he'll be back week one. I believe that
[11:47] Speaker 3: in the simulation that I did, I gave him a
[11:50] Speaker 3: small chance of being out at the beginning of the year.
[11:52] Speaker 3: I did the same thing for Patrick Mahomes. But overall,
[11:57] Speaker 3: this team was really good last year. They really were,
[12:01] Speaker 3: and like, you don't think that he can do that again.
[12:04] Speaker 3: But I'm not projecting him to do it again, and
[12:06] Speaker 3: I'm just projecting him to be better than he was
[12:09] Speaker 3: in the past.
[12:10] Speaker 1: Right, And I hate to say it, Aaron, but I
[12:12] Speaker 1: value your your your model, your system more than your
[12:16] Speaker 1: own opinions. How does that make you feel, though, that
[12:18] Speaker 1: like your your like your machine has overtaken like in
[12:22] Speaker 1: terms of value compared to your brain.
[12:25] Speaker 3: I mean there are times. Listen, last year, we're gonna
[12:27] Speaker 3: we'll talk by the end here about a team where
[12:29] Speaker 3: the vibes are bad. Last year the Dolphins. The Dolphins,
[12:33] Speaker 3: my numbers said were the second best team in the
[12:35] Speaker 3: AFC East, And I said, the problem is, I understand
[12:38] Speaker 3: what the numbers say, but the vibes are so bad
[12:40] Speaker 3: there right now that I feel like there's no way
[12:43] Speaker 3: they're going to do this. And on one hand, they
[12:46] Speaker 3: were worse than the projection. On the other hand, of
[12:48] Speaker 3: the second half of the year they were not.
[12:50] Speaker 1: They won seven games in the end, and they are
[12:52] Speaker 1: kind of better. Yeah, they were kind of fine in
[12:54] Speaker 1: the end. So the vibes matter.
[12:56] Speaker 3: I don't believe that there's nothing but numbers out there, right, Like,
[13:00] Speaker 3: vibes matter, Like these guys are human beings, their attitudes
[13:04] Speaker 3: matter and all that. But what I try to do
[13:06] Speaker 3: is point out places that you may not realize that
[13:09] Speaker 3: certain things are better or worse than you thought they were.
[13:12] Speaker 1: And look, your DVOA, which I think is also useful
[13:16] Speaker 1: throughout the course of the season, often is ahead of
[13:18] Speaker 1: where consensus thinking is. You guys rightly pointed out in
[13:22] Speaker 1: the book how Seattle more or less went wire to
[13:27] Speaker 1: wire as the best team in the NFL last year,
[13:31] Speaker 1: and your numbers were saying as early as like early
[13:34] Speaker 1: October September, certainly throughout the rest of the season that like, yeah,
[13:37] Speaker 1: this is probably the best team in the NFL, and
[13:40] Speaker 1: they end up playing like it throughout the course of
[13:42] Speaker 1: the season. They're one of the best teams according to
[13:44] Speaker 1: the DVOA of the last twenty five years. So sometimes
[13:47] Speaker 1: you got to listen to those numbers, even if you
[13:49] Speaker 1: know it doesn't totally make sense to you. Let's go
[13:51] Speaker 1: to some numbers that I would say, surprise me. I
[13:54] Speaker 1: don't know if they didn't make sense, but I am
[13:56] Speaker 1: bullish on the Cowboys and the Chargers, for instance, making
[13:58] Speaker 1: the playoffs this year. They are both projected in your
[14:02] Speaker 1: system to be totally average. I would say a little
[14:04] Speaker 1: below average technically seventeenth and eighteenth overall in DVOWAY.
[14:10] Speaker 2: When you look at those two teams and.
[14:12] Speaker 1: Your model sees them very middle of the pack, not
[14:16] Speaker 1: necessarily teams to get it excited about as Super Bowl contenders.
[14:19] Speaker 1: When I have a feeling they'll be trendy, kind of
[14:22] Speaker 1: dark horse picks. What are the things that gets in
[14:25] Speaker 1: their way? Maybe of a better projection, The.
[14:27] Speaker 3: First thing I'll say is that kind of like Lake
[14:30] Speaker 3: will be gone, everybody is above average this year because
[14:34] Speaker 3: the bad teams look so bad. Nineteen teams project to
[14:40] Speaker 3: be above average, not sixteen, and so we are projecting
[14:43] Speaker 3: the Chargers and the Cowboys to be above average even
[14:46] Speaker 3: though they're seventeenth and eighteenth. The Cowboys, their defense last
[14:51] Speaker 3: year was the third worst defense since nineteen seventy seven
[14:57] Speaker 3: by DVOA. Of course, it's going to be better this year,
[15:01] Speaker 3: but I don't know if it can be better than
[15:03] Speaker 3: like twenty eighth in the league or something. Their offense,
[15:07] Speaker 3: this surprised me, was only eighth last year. We feel
[15:11] Speaker 3: like their offense was really awesome, but it was eighth.
[15:15] Speaker 3: So to go from eighth to like fourteenth, you know,
[15:18] Speaker 3: I mean subjectively I feel like they're better than fourteenth.
[15:21] Speaker 3: I feel like they're more like eighth. But on the
[15:24] Speaker 3: other hand, I mean, the system doesn't know this, But
[15:27] Speaker 3: do you trust George Pickens to keep his head on
[15:30] Speaker 3: straight for seventeen games? You know, there's stuff going on
[15:33] Speaker 3: with that team where you're like, I don't know if
[15:36] Speaker 3: I trust this. I agree with you that the best
[15:39] Speaker 3: case scenario, the best case scenario is their defense goes
[15:42] Speaker 3: all the way back to like average and their offense
[15:44] Speaker 3: is fantastic and they win the division. I mean, it's
[15:47] Speaker 3: you can absolutely tell that story of what's possible for
[15:50] Speaker 3: the Dallas season. But what the projections are saying is
[15:54] Speaker 3: sort of like slow your role a little bit. On
[15:56] Speaker 3: how good they were last year.
[15:58] Speaker 1: Pickens, don't expect the same season out of him. DeVante Williams.
[16:01] Speaker 1: You're hoping he can stay healthy for an entire season,
[16:04] Speaker 1: But that's a little bit of a gamble, you know,
[16:07] Speaker 1: Dak said his injuries. Certainly they survived a lot of
[16:10] Speaker 1: offensive line injuries, so that could actually be a plus.
[16:12] Speaker 1: But how good is the offensive line? I think the
[16:15] Speaker 1: better case for them excel, you know, exceeding these expectations
[16:19] Speaker 1: or using another you know, precept you guys often talk
[16:21] Speaker 1: about is how defense can be very inconsistent year to
[16:24] Speaker 1: year like they and I think that the coaching and
[16:27] Speaker 1: the defensive front are good enough. You know, they they
[16:30] Speaker 1: absolutely could be average or slightly better than average with
[16:33] Speaker 1: a good scheme, and I could see the scheme carrying them.
[16:36] Speaker 2: What is it about the scheme?
[16:37] Speaker 3: Uh?
[16:37] Speaker 1: Or maybe the Chargers season. I was even more surprised
[16:41] Speaker 1: that you kind of had them.
[16:42] Speaker 3: Yeah, the Chargers was one that I personally don't quite get.
[16:46] Speaker 3: We had them too low last year too. I don't
[16:49] Speaker 3: know what it is about the Chargers that the system
[16:52] Speaker 3: doesn't like. I know that's weird. I built the system.
[16:55] Speaker 3: I should everything. Uh. I think there's a definite possibility
[17:00] Speaker 3: that I'm not accounting enough for the return of Slater
[17:03] Speaker 3: and Alt. What I will tell you is this, you
[17:08] Speaker 3: don't know coaches are good. We think coaches are good.
[17:12] Speaker 3: We think Mike McDaniel is going to dramatically improve the
[17:16] Speaker 3: Chargers offense, but we don't know because we've only seen
[17:20] Speaker 3: Mike McDaniel coach one offense. Usually when a coach is
[17:24] Speaker 3: on the they're on the second team. The sample size
[17:27] Speaker 3: of their success is one and so you don't know
[17:30] Speaker 3: whether it was the coach or the players. I know
[17:33] Speaker 3: that sounds ridiculous to suggest it was the players and
[17:35] Speaker 3: not the coach in Miami, but you know, the quarterback
[17:38] Speaker 3: had his problems, but the receivers and the running back
[17:40] Speaker 3: were pretty good. You don't know whether Mike McDaniel is
[17:44] Speaker 3: the genius that you think he is. It's not until
[17:47] Speaker 3: you're Vic Fangio and you've been like eight places that
[17:51] Speaker 3: you can have enough of a sample size that you
[17:53] Speaker 3: can be like, yeah, this coach matters.
[17:55] Speaker 1: Fair The case or McDaniel is that Kyle Sanahan did
[18:01] Speaker 1: everything but like break labor laws to prevent him from
[18:04] Speaker 1: ever leaving.
[18:04] Speaker 2: He thought Mike McDaniel is so valuable.
[18:06] Speaker 3: That yes, And I mean, listen, we want to talk
[18:10] Speaker 3: about film study rather than stats. The run designs in
[18:13] Speaker 3: Miami were fantastic, and what he got out of Tua
[18:17] Speaker 3: was fantastic given what you know we know about Tua's talents.
[18:23] Speaker 3: So you know, subjectively, I believe Mike McDaniel is a
[18:26] Speaker 3: really good offensive coordinator. I do I feel like we
[18:29] Speaker 3: had the chargers too low this year. We probably have
[18:32] Speaker 3: the chargers too low. We had them too low last year.
[18:35] Speaker 3: We probably have them too low again this year, but
[18:38] Speaker 3: you don't know, new coaches both sides of the ball.
[18:42] Speaker 3: Usually teams new coaches, you take a little bit of
[18:44] Speaker 3: a step back. All of the things being equal. Defense
[18:47] Speaker 3: has to get used to a new coordinator as well,
[18:50] Speaker 3: so we'll have to see why. You know, I mean,
[18:55] Speaker 3: it's not Herbert the Herbert. You know, every team has
[18:57] Speaker 3: a quarterback projection. You start with the quarterback and then
[19:00] Speaker 3: you put that into the offensive projection. Leberts is good,
[19:03] Speaker 3: So it's not that I don't know quite why. This
[19:06] Speaker 3: is the second straight year that we haven't had the
[19:08] Speaker 3: Chargers higher.
[19:09] Speaker 2: So I wanted to talk Bears.
[19:11] Speaker 1: I wasn't surprised that you had them relatively in the
[19:14] Speaker 1: middle of the league, depending on how you want to
[19:15] Speaker 1: categorize it, make the playoffs DVOWA, but relatively in that
[19:19] Speaker 1: middle and third in that division. You're pretty high on
[19:21] Speaker 1: the Lions, and then you do have the Packers ahead
[19:23] Speaker 1: of them too. But I just wanted to bring up
[19:25] Speaker 1: they had the most dramatic split between offense defense, almost
[19:29] Speaker 1: the most dramatic split you could possibly have, which you
[19:31] Speaker 1: have them as the second ranked offense and the worst
[19:35] Speaker 1: defense in the league. The only team that was even
[19:37] Speaker 1: remotely close to that biggest split. You had the Packers
[19:40] Speaker 1: as the fourth best offense and the twenty sixth best defense,
[19:43] Speaker 1: which in my head makes sense. The Bears one is
[19:46] Speaker 1: even more dramatic. But explain I guess that split and
[19:51] Speaker 1: what you really see as negative in terms of the
[19:54] Speaker 1: defense going that bad.
[19:56] Speaker 3: As far as the offense. Second year in the system,
[20:00] Speaker 3: it likes Caleb Williams projection. You know, number one pick
[20:03] Speaker 3: in his third year, who played well last year, you know,
[20:07] Speaker 3: not great, but good. DJ Moore is not losing a lot.
[20:12] Speaker 3: It doesn't feel like given his performance last year. Defensive,
[20:16] Speaker 3: every red light in our projection system goes off with
[20:20] Speaker 3: the Bear. Okay, by far led the league in takeaways
[20:25] Speaker 3: per drive by far. Huge regression coming on takeaways per
[20:29] Speaker 3: drive third down much better than first and second down.
[20:33] Speaker 3: Big sign of regression. Talent loss. They lost a bunch
[20:38] Speaker 3: of guys. They lost an all Pro safety. I know
[20:40] Speaker 3: we can talk about oh, but the guy they signed
[20:42] Speaker 3: from Seattle is really good. And they drafted Daneman and
[20:44] Speaker 3: he's good. I understand that. And so in our talent
[20:48] Speaker 3: variable we're including what they added, not just what they lost,
[20:52] Speaker 3: but they lost a lot of talent, and I know,
[20:54] Speaker 3: like Jalen Johnson will play a full year and he's
[20:57] Speaker 3: very good, and that makes them better. It's just the
[21:01] Speaker 3: defense just pings all the red lights.
[21:04] Speaker 1: It is hard to win back to front they did
[21:07] Speaker 1: last year in terms of the secondary being the best
[21:09] Speaker 1: part of your team. The Denissance Dennis Allen is a
[21:12] Speaker 1: real thing. He's a good coordinator, had a nice had
[21:15] Speaker 1: a nice season. But counting on that again, the defensive line, Like,
[21:18] Speaker 1: there's a reason that all they're talking about in Chicago
[21:20] Speaker 1: this offseason is the lack of a passers. They have
[21:22] Speaker 1: no passers. Speaking of the Denissance, he came from New Orleans.
[21:26] Speaker 1: I was a little stunned that you had them thirty
[21:29] Speaker 1: first in DVOA. You have them as a bottom three offense.
[21:33] Speaker 1: The defense I could see, but you have them as
[21:35] Speaker 1: a bottom three offense, and you have them as the
[21:38] Speaker 1: worst team in the NFC and the lowest NFC odds
[21:42] Speaker 1: to make the playoffs despite being in the NFC South.
[21:45] Speaker 2: Answer to the Saints fans, Yeah yeah.
[21:48] Speaker 3: This is another one that subjectively feels low. I totally
[21:52] Speaker 3: admit it. Their defense was good last year. It just
[21:55] Speaker 3: it sees you know some of the losses, and it
[21:57] Speaker 3: sees regression to they did the year before. What we
[22:01] Speaker 3: call the plexiglass principle, which is the teams or units
[22:05] Speaker 3: that dramatically improve from one year to the next tend
[22:08] Speaker 3: to take a step back in the third year. On offense,
[22:12] Speaker 3: you know, it doesn't like what they were good at
[22:14] Speaker 3: versus The other thing about defense is they were much
[22:17] Speaker 3: better against the run than the past, which doesn't carry
[22:19] Speaker 3: over from year to year as much. On offense, you know,
[22:23] Speaker 3: shock is okay, but it looks at a quarterback who
[22:26] Speaker 3: is okay and is a second round pick and says
[22:29] Speaker 3: in year two, this is not as likely to be
[22:31] Speaker 3: as good as a quarterback who's okay and as a
[22:33] Speaker 3: top pick, because that's just history. And so yeah, it
[22:38] Speaker 3: has the Saints.
[22:39] Speaker 1: Now.
[22:39] Speaker 3: The funny thing is the chapter talks about that we
[22:43] Speaker 3: think the Saints are on the right path and that
[22:45] Speaker 3: in that division there's a legit shot, like we could
[22:50] Speaker 3: be wrong about the Bucks rebounding, and then everybody's got
[22:53] Speaker 3: a shot in that division, and that includes the Saints.
[22:55] Speaker 3: So I think if you read the chapter in the
[22:58] Speaker 3: FTN Football Almanac, we don't come off as being as
[23:02] Speaker 3: negative about the Saints, as the numbers are. I talk
[23:06] Speaker 3: a lot about teams where you can tell a story
[23:09] Speaker 3: right where there are teams that we project to be bad,
[23:12] Speaker 3: but you understand why we might be wrong. And the
[23:16] Speaker 3: Saints have the story. They have the young quarterback and
[23:19] Speaker 3: the defense that improved in the second half, and you
[23:22] Speaker 3: can see where they would be much better than this projection,
[23:25] Speaker 3: as opposed to a team like you know, Cleveland, where
[23:28] Speaker 3: you can't really tell the story.
[23:30] Speaker 2: Yeah, it's totally fair.
[23:32] Speaker 1: It's also worth noticing we're going to get into a
[23:35] Speaker 1: team the Dolphins with with Dan a little bit later,
[23:38] Speaker 1: which has a record number of dead cap money this
[23:42] Speaker 1: year is Saints team still has a ton of dead
[23:45] Speaker 1: cap and they survived it last year to at least
[23:48] Speaker 1: have an improved season. But when you're just not able
[23:50] Speaker 1: to use the resources that the rest of the NFL
[23:53] Speaker 1: is using, they'll be out of that cap, you know,
[23:55] Speaker 1: hell after this year.
[23:57] Speaker 2: But that is a problem for them. All right.
[23:59] Speaker 1: We did eight teams my ninth I'm just gonna mention
[24:01] Speaker 1: quickly before we say goodbyes, I just want to give
[24:04] Speaker 1: a little shout out to the Cardinals. You have them
[24:06] Speaker 1: better than eight or nine teams. You know, depending on
[24:08] Speaker 1: how you want to measure it, you do not have
[24:10] Speaker 1: the Cardinals as the very bottom of the bottom. You
[24:13] Speaker 1: kind of have them as the top of the bottom.
[24:16] Speaker 1: I would say there is a little bit of a cutoff, especially.
[24:18] Speaker 2: In the NFC. It's a team not likely to make
[24:20] Speaker 2: the playoffs.
[24:21] Speaker 1: The Cardinals are one of them, certainly, but maybe not
[24:23] Speaker 1: the tire fire that everyone has expected.
[24:25] Speaker 3: The Cardinals were twenty third twenty third in overall Dvoa
[24:29] Speaker 3: less rays the banner despite being the most injured team
[24:34] Speaker 3: in the league. And they're going to be healthier this year,
[24:38] Speaker 3: and they have the hardest schedule just like last year.
[24:41] Speaker 3: Last year they had the hardest schedule. They project to
[24:43] Speaker 3: have the hardest schedule. Now this is the team where
[24:46] Speaker 3: I was talking about vibes. I can tell you numbers,
[24:50] Speaker 3: and I can tell you they were twenty third last year.
[24:52] Speaker 3: I can tell you that this player is better than
[24:54] Speaker 3: you think. And they didn't get rid of Josh Sweat
[24:56] Speaker 3: Will Johnson in his second year. I can go on,
[24:59] Speaker 3: but the vibes are terrible. And if you said to
[25:02] Speaker 3: me one team, you know, I definitely think their Vegas
[25:06] Speaker 3: over unders like three and a half or something. All
[25:09] Speaker 3: they have to do is win four out of eleven
[25:11] Speaker 3: non division games to go over that. But I know
[25:15] Speaker 3: the vibes are really bad there, and the vibes may
[25:17] Speaker 3: win out over the number.
[25:19] Speaker 1: Yeah, the the X factor is whether Mike Lafleur is
[25:23] Speaker 1: a better head coach than we would really have any
[25:26] Speaker 1: reason to know right now.
[25:27] Speaker 2: I don't particularly tend to.
[25:30] Speaker 3: The chapter is pretty negative about Lafleur. He was a
[25:33] Speaker 3: weird hire. And Nathaniel Hackett his offensive coordinator. I know
[25:37] Speaker 3: he's not the play caller, but that's even weirder.
[25:40] Speaker 2: It is a little weirder.
[25:41] Speaker 1: But sometimes these head coaching hires they surprise us. Aaron,
[25:45] Speaker 1: your projection surprised me. No, they didn't shock me for
[25:48] Speaker 1: the most part, but we went over nine of the
[25:50] Speaker 1: more surprising teams. Everyone should go buy Aaron Shotz's FTN Almanac.
[25:57] Speaker 2: You can get the print copy, which is big.
[26:00] Speaker 3: I like it.
[26:01] Speaker 2: You can get the digital copy if you want. You
[26:03] Speaker 2: go to FTN.
[26:04] Speaker 1: You go to Aaron Shotts's social to find all the
[26:07] Speaker 1: information to go get that and appreciate having you on Aaron.
[26:10] Speaker 2: Thank you.
[26:11] Speaker 3: Ftnfantasy dot Com slash Almanac is where you get the
[26:15] Speaker 3: PDF version.
[26:16] Speaker 1: Appreciate you, and we're not done yet pumping up your
[26:19] Speaker 1: book because we have one of your great writers from
[26:22] Speaker 1: the book, Dan Pezuda, coming up after the break to
[26:24] Speaker 1: talk about six of the teams in a little more depth.
[26:27] Speaker 2: Back in a minute.
[26:38] Speaker 1: So I mentioned before the break we're going to have
[26:40] Speaker 1: a first time guest on NFL Daily.
[26:44] Speaker 2: It is Dan Pezuda.
[26:46] Speaker 1: He's done great work elsewhere, including with the thirty third team,
[26:49] Speaker 1: but in this scenario we have him on because he
[26:52] Speaker 1: wrote six team previews in the FDM Almanac that we
[26:57] Speaker 1: mentioned earlier.
[26:58] Speaker 2: What is going on, Dan?
[27:00] Speaker 4: Yeah, thanks for having me, walktime listener. Happy to you
[27:03] Speaker 4: to be here and talk some football and previewing the season.
[27:08] Speaker 4: Can't believe like we're in that time.
[27:10] Speaker 1: Finally, this is the last quiet week. I've mentioned it
[27:13] Speaker 1: a few different times. It will be the last weekend
[27:16] Speaker 1: without training camp. I didn't couldn't even find any real
[27:19] Speaker 1: news to talk about on.
[27:20] Speaker 2: This show, but that is not a bad thing.
[27:22] Speaker 1: The one thing actually mine that I will mention quickly
[27:25] Speaker 1: is that Alvin Kamara signed a new deal with the
[27:29] Speaker 1: Saints for less money but still plenty of money, and
[27:32] Speaker 1: it sounds like he'll have one final rodeo there as
[27:36] Speaker 1: a member of the Saints, which is great. Our friends
[27:38] Speaker 1: at the Saints Block Party podcast actually reporting that Gail Benson,
[27:42] Speaker 1: the owner, got involved here.
[27:44] Speaker 2: I love it.
[27:45] Speaker 1: She doesn't do that too often, but she got involved
[27:47] Speaker 1: when she got Mickey Loomis's old buddy Dennis Allen out
[27:50] Speaker 1: the pay and out of that job a few years
[27:53] Speaker 1: ago now, and it sounds like she got involved keeping
[27:56] Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara for one more year, which I love to
[27:59] Speaker 1: see talk though. Dan, like I mentioned, you wrote six
[28:03] Speaker 1: team previews, which is one of the reasons why I
[28:06] Speaker 1: love the Almanac so well.
[28:07] Speaker 2: It's great writing. It's not just about the numbers.
[28:11] Speaker 1: But you were tasked with previewing the AFC East and
[28:14] Speaker 1: then a couple of the AFC North teams, the Lions
[28:17] Speaker 1: and the Viking. So one assignment I gave you for
[28:20] Speaker 1: this show is to come up with one number just
[28:23] Speaker 1: as a jumping off point for each one of these
[28:26] Speaker 1: six teams, and we'll kind of just dive into that
[28:28] Speaker 1: number and talk about these teams on the show. So
[28:31] Speaker 1: let's start with the Buffalo Bills, who I mentioned earlier.
[28:35] Speaker 1: Dan with Aaron is projected according to FDN, to have
[28:40] Speaker 1: the second most amount of wins in the AFC, has
[28:42] Speaker 1: the second highest Super Bowl odds, a decent amount behind
[28:45] Speaker 1: the Houston Texans, but still, you know, right at the
[28:48] Speaker 1: top of the league. What is the one number you
[28:50] Speaker 1: have here to help explain this Buffalo Bills team.
[28:54] Speaker 4: Yeah, So the one that stood out to me, frind
[28:56] Speaker 4: and it's kind of a last year thing that's going
[28:59] Speaker 4: to shape this year is Josh Allen saw the highest
[29:02] Speaker 4: rate of man coverage among all quarterbacks in the league,
[29:05] Speaker 4: and we typically don't see that one against good quarterbacks
[29:09] Speaker 4: and two against mobile quarterbacks because you know, when you're
[29:12] Speaker 4: in ban coverage, a lot of defensive backs are going
[29:15] Speaker 4: to turn the back. That allows the quarterbacks to run
[29:17] Speaker 4: a little bit. But there were zero receivers that scared
[29:21] Speaker 4: any opposing defense last year, and so Allen was nineteenth
[29:26] Speaker 4: and yards for drop back against man coverage. He was
[29:28] Speaker 4: eighth against zone, and I think when you look at it,
[29:32] Speaker 4: kind of went into ESPN has like their retriever or
[29:36] Speaker 4: receiver tracking metrics and have the open score. Josh Palmer
[29:40] Speaker 4: was the top Bill and he ranked thirty first, but
[29:44] Speaker 4: he was only on the field of forty percent of
[29:45] Speaker 4: the snaps.
[29:46] Speaker 5: The like main guys.
[29:47] Speaker 4: Khalil Shakir was seventy third, Keyon Coleman was sixty eighth.
[29:50] Speaker 4: And there are some issues with open score. You know,
[29:54] Speaker 4: we don't really know where these guys are supposed to be,
[29:56] Speaker 4: and like you have a guy's like eighty Mitchell like
[29:58] Speaker 4: on the Jets who tracks really well in the open score,
[30:01] Speaker 4: whether he's where he's supposed to be when he is open, like,
[30:04] Speaker 4: that's kind of the questions you can have with that
[30:06] Speaker 4: type of metric. But the fact that just no one
[30:09] Speaker 4: was really getting open on their own really hindered what
[30:12] Speaker 4: this offense could potentially do. And I think that kind
[30:15] Speaker 4: of can lead us into Dj Moore the acquisition, which
[30:19] Speaker 4: I didn't really understand and understand the trade value. I
[30:23] Speaker 4: don't also understand the contract that they gave him, But
[30:27] Speaker 4: I think he objectively makes this offense better and kind
[30:30] Speaker 4: of opens up what they can potentially do this coming season.
[30:33] Speaker 1: It's a great number to point out, and it's a crime, frankly,
[30:37] Speaker 1: that the most effective, efficient, dangerous play in football of
[30:43] Speaker 1: the last half decade plus is a Josh Allen run
[30:46] Speaker 1: and yet he is facing like that much man coverage
[30:50] Speaker 1: and that it's that ineffective. And yeah, some of the
[30:53] Speaker 1: numbers I went through and read all your chapters of
[30:56] Speaker 1: course before this were not great for the receivers.
[30:59] Speaker 2: Even Khalios.
[31:00] Speaker 1: It was starting to be a little diminishing returns in
[31:02] Speaker 1: terms of what he was doing after the catch and
[31:04] Speaker 1: how open he is.
[31:05] Speaker 2: And that might just be because of his surroundings.
[31:07] Speaker 1: He does not profile as a number one guy, and
[31:10] Speaker 1: it's going to help out to have a little more help.
[31:13] Speaker 1: But look, Joe Brady wanted to do a ball control offense,
[31:16] Speaker 1: and you guys pointed out too that I thought your
[31:19] Speaker 1: number you might have picked was I think they had
[31:22] Speaker 1: the slowest paced offense since two thousand and seven, and
[31:25] Speaker 1: it worked pretty well for them.
[31:27] Speaker 2: But I also don't love like this.
[31:29] Speaker 1: Let's just possess the ball as long as we can
[31:32] Speaker 1: when Josh Allen is your quarterback.
[31:34] Speaker 4: Yeah, that's definitely the thing that it's the kind of
[31:38] Speaker 4: just the disconnect of what they have at quarterback and
[31:41] Speaker 4: kind of the team they built around, especially when you
[31:44] Speaker 4: know the past year and a half or so, the defense,
[31:47] Speaker 4: you just weren't really sure what you were getting from it.
[31:50] Speaker 4: So the idea to be able to build up that
[31:53] Speaker 4: offensive line, which they wanted to do. Like for all
[31:56] Speaker 4: of Josh Allen's career, really every year they kept saying,
[32:00] Speaker 4: we want to have this run game, and finally, once
[32:02] Speaker 4: Joe Brady came in, they were actually able to get it.
[32:04] Speaker 4: In the past two years, they've really been able to
[32:06] Speaker 4: rely on that a little bit. But then you also
[32:08] Speaker 4: have Josh Allen. You're kind of hindering some of the
[32:11] Speaker 4: things he can do on a play to play basis
[32:14] Speaker 4: when you are focusing so hard on that run game.
[32:17] Speaker 4: So I think with DJ Moore now they might just
[32:20] Speaker 4: be able to open it up a little more. Everyone
[32:21] Speaker 4: else in that offense now just makes a little more sense.
[32:24] Speaker 4: I don't think DJ Moore is going to be some
[32:26] Speaker 4: incredible individual wide receiver, but just in the way that
[32:30] Speaker 4: you're able to now structure the offense around that, I
[32:33] Speaker 4: think he's just going to be so much better than
[32:34] Speaker 4: it was last year.
[32:36] Speaker 1: Schedule is probably going to get harder for the Bills
[32:37] Speaker 1: this year, but overall, the DVOA projections have them as
[32:41] Speaker 1: the fourth overall team, third on offense, eighth on defense,
[32:45] Speaker 1: which is pretty optimistic for that defense. And yeah, it's
[32:50] Speaker 1: something we'll probably talk about in their full team preview,
[32:52] Speaker 1: but I couldn't help but notice, if you really look
[32:54] Speaker 1: at the numbers, at least according to the numbers you
[32:58] Speaker 1: guys have, the Bills are almost unquestionably the greatest team
[33:03] Speaker 1: of all time to never you know, the greatest team
[33:05] Speaker 1: of all time to not reach the super Bowl, because
[33:07] Speaker 1: if you look at five year you know runs of
[33:09] Speaker 1: them being good, it's really their last three years. And
[33:12] Speaker 1: you could argue two of the greatest teams of the
[33:15] Speaker 1: last fifty years not to make the Super Bowl are
[33:17] Speaker 1: this version of the Bills and this version of the Ravens.
[33:20] Speaker 1: The other two teams you would throw in there are
[33:21] Speaker 1: like the late seventies Rams and then the late twenty
[33:25] Speaker 1: tens Drew Brees Saints teams that didn't quite get there.
[33:28] Speaker 1: But it is crazy that these Bills and Ravens teams.
[33:30] Speaker 1: It's not it doesn't just feel that way. They really
[33:32] Speaker 1: are maybe among the greatest teams of all time that
[33:34] Speaker 1: have never made the Super Bowl.
[33:36] Speaker 4: Yeah, and even with the New Orleans like they were
[33:38] Speaker 4: there and then they continued to be good and didn't
[33:41] Speaker 4: make the super Bowl. For where these the Ravens and
[33:44] Speaker 4: this version of the Ravens and this version of the bills.
[33:47] Speaker 4: They just haven't been there at all, and that it
[33:50] Speaker 4: seems crazy, which we continue to keep saying like they're
[33:54] Speaker 4: they're probably do. These teams continue to be good, so
[33:57] Speaker 4: we will continue to pump them up. But yeah, it
[34:00] Speaker 4: is a historic stretch of being this good and not
[34:04] Speaker 4: really getting.
[34:04] Speaker 3: Over the hup.
[34:05] Speaker 1: It's crazy. Although Saints fans will push back on you
[34:08] Speaker 1: and be like, those.
[34:09] Speaker 2: Michael Thomas teams were not the same.
[34:11] Speaker 1: Those are some of the greatest teams of all time
[34:13] Speaker 1: that didn't that didn't make it that it is crazy
[34:15] Speaker 1: that I thought those teams were as good or better
[34:18] Speaker 1: than the Saints team that won the Super Bowl.
[34:19] Speaker 3: Right.
[34:19] Speaker 2: The Miami Dolphins are next.
[34:20] Speaker 1: They are a team that is not going to be
[34:22] Speaker 1: projected to be one of the best teams in the
[34:24] Speaker 1: league by literally anyone.
[34:26] Speaker 2: What is the number you have for them?
[34:28] Speaker 4: Right, So I'm gonna it's kind of like an off
[34:30] Speaker 4: field number, but I think it kind of shapes what
[34:32] Speaker 4: the Dolphins are this year. And fifty nine point six
[34:36] Speaker 4: percent of their salary cap is dead money this year,
[34:39] Speaker 4: and I think we got to get carried away with
[34:41] Speaker 4: dead money a little bit. And usually individually it's not
[34:44] Speaker 4: as bad as a lot of people try to make
[34:47] Speaker 4: it out to be, but this is the highest rate
[34:50] Speaker 4: since easily the highest rates since twenty thirteen, and have
[34:52] Speaker 4: a table in the chapter. The next highest is the
[34:55] Speaker 4: twenty thirteen Oakland Raiders, who had forty seven point one percent.
[35:00] Speaker 4: So the Dolphins right now are almost at sixty. So
[35:02] Speaker 4: when you just kind of look at what the shape
[35:04] Speaker 4: of the Dolphins are right now, it's a complete rebuild.
[35:08] Speaker 4: And really this is like a year zero of a rebuild,
[35:11] Speaker 4: kind of like a college that we've kind of seen
[35:14] Speaker 4: in a way where you're completely just taking this down
[35:17] Speaker 4: to the studs and trying to figure out what this
[35:19] Speaker 4: offense or what this whole team is going to be.
[35:22] Speaker 1: Yeah, if you were looking for some optimism Dolphins fans,
[35:25] Speaker 1: the projections actually had the Dolphins at twenty sixth in DVOA,
[35:29] Speaker 1: higher than I think four AFC teams. So it doesn't
[35:33] Speaker 1: have you as as the very worst. But I am
[35:36] Speaker 1: going to be emphasizing this with the number you point
[35:38] Speaker 1: out that it's almost sixty percent of dead cap.
[35:40] Speaker 2: It's unprecedented.
[35:41] Speaker 1: I mean, as long as as anyone's been keeping track
[35:43] Speaker 1: of it, it is leaps and bounds higher than any
[35:45] Speaker 1: team ever, And yes, there is a level of dead
[35:48] Speaker 1: cap where some teams have been relatively successful, but on
[35:52] Speaker 1: the table you guys show Look that the top eight
[35:54] Speaker 1: teams in terms of dead cap percentage of all time
[35:57] Speaker 1: all have losing records. Like the best one of them
[36:00] Speaker 1: among them was a seven and ten Falcons team after
[36:04] Speaker 1: they cut Matt Ryan. And you know, even then seven
[36:06] Speaker 1: to ten is maybe the upper limits. So it it
[36:09] Speaker 1: just goes to show we all kind of know it.
[36:11] Speaker 1: But there have been rebuilds before. This is about as
[36:14] Speaker 1: dramatic in terms of the financial penalty that any team.
[36:18] Speaker 2: Has ever had.
[36:20] Speaker 1: All right, let's get to a team in the Patriots
[36:22] Speaker 1: that I was really curious what the numbers would spit
[36:25] Speaker 1: out after, you know, such an improvement last year overall
[36:28] Speaker 1: has them third among AFC teams in Super Bowl odds
[36:31] Speaker 1: that the AFC is pretty clustered the top seven or
[36:34] Speaker 1: eight teams, but they are definitely in that mix, seventh
[36:36] Speaker 1: overall in DVOA. So actually not the hugest decline overall
[36:41] Speaker 1: in terms of the Patriots projections.
[36:43] Speaker 2: What's a number that stood out to you for them?
[36:45] Speaker 4: All right, So, as as a pat would you rather
[36:47] Speaker 4: talk about the offense or the defense to start off.
[36:51] Speaker 2: Just because we haven't done it that much. Let's go defense.
[36:54] Speaker 4: Okay, So the defense is interesting because I think that
[36:57] Speaker 4: it really is going to kind of shape what this past,
[37:00] Speaker 4: this next year could be. So through Week fourteen, New
[37:02] Speaker 4: England blitz twenty five point five percent of the time.
[37:05] Speaker 4: That was twenty six and they were twenty ninth in
[37:07] Speaker 4: pressure rate. After the buye that jumped up to a
[37:11] Speaker 4: thirty five percent blitz rate, which was ninth, and they
[37:13] Speaker 4: were fifteenth in pressure rate in the playoffs a forty
[37:16] Speaker 4: three point four percent blitz rate and a thirty eight
[37:19] Speaker 4: point seven percent pressure rate. Those would have ranked second
[37:22] Speaker 4: and first respectively throughout the regular season. During the playoffs,
[37:26] Speaker 4: the Patriots had a better DEVO way against the past
[37:28] Speaker 4: than the Seahawks did. So this is a defense that
[37:33] Speaker 4: we don't really like to say what happened at the
[37:36] Speaker 4: in like a second half of the year or at
[37:38] Speaker 4: the end of the year is going to translate. But
[37:40] Speaker 4: the way the Patriots completely like really shifted their defense,
[37:43] Speaker 4: really leaned into that blitz, trusted the secondary that they had,
[37:48] Speaker 4: it really helped. On top of that, when Milton Williams
[37:50] Speaker 4: and Christian Barmore were on the field together, they had
[37:53] Speaker 4: a sack rate that would have been equal to first
[37:56] Speaker 4: in the league, and that was something that they didn't
[37:58] Speaker 4: get as often as they would have liked because both
[38:00] Speaker 4: of them kind of missed staggering amounts of time. So
[38:04] Speaker 4: when this defense is healthy and the way we're now
[38:07] Speaker 4: going to have, you know, Zach Kerr having this for
[38:09] Speaker 4: a full year as the defensive coordinator, I think it's
[38:12] Speaker 4: going to be real interesting to see how this defense
[38:15] Speaker 4: wants to be structurally and if they are going to
[38:17] Speaker 4: kind of wean into that bitz a little bit.
[38:20] Speaker 1: Yeah, I really am curious about Zach Corer in what
[38:23] Speaker 1: his two point zero is going to be because if
[38:27] Speaker 1: he didn't get the job in strange circumstances, he took
[38:30] Speaker 1: over when when Terrell Williams had had his healthcare and
[38:33] Speaker 1: threw wims Is back with the staff, but he's going
[38:35] Speaker 1: to be an assistant head coach. If he hadn't come,
[38:38] Speaker 1: you know, along that way, and we had known him
[38:40] Speaker 1: a little bit before, if he was like from some tree,
[38:43] Speaker 1: I think everyone would be talking about him as one
[38:45] Speaker 1: of the most exciting young defensive minds in the league.
[38:50] Speaker 1: Now there's been a lot of like flashy defensive minds
[38:53] Speaker 1: as a coach that have like a year or two
[38:55] Speaker 1: where they pop and then they just kind of take
[38:57] Speaker 1: a back seat. So I am like really curious because
[39:00] Speaker 1: talent wise, it's a pretty good defense. I don't know
[39:03] Speaker 1: if it's better or worse. They lost a few players,
[39:05] Speaker 1: they brought a few in, but I would say it's
[39:07] Speaker 1: an average to better than average talent. But if you
[39:11] Speaker 1: combine that with a guy who's a bit of a
[39:13] Speaker 1: scheme wizard, he was down the stretch last year, then
[39:15] Speaker 1: you have a pretty good unit.
[39:17] Speaker 4: Yeah, And I think that's going to be super interesting
[39:20] Speaker 4: because I think you have the talent that can allow
[39:23] Speaker 4: them to blitz in that way if they want to
[39:26] Speaker 4: stay like, no one's going to be the Brian Flores Vikings,
[39:29] Speaker 4: but I think like the playoff Patriots were like close,
[39:33] Speaker 4: and so I don't think they're going to do that
[39:35] Speaker 4: for a full year. But if they lean more into that,
[39:38] Speaker 4: that makes them a very interesting defense, which I think
[39:41] Speaker 4: just kind of could give the offense a little more
[39:43] Speaker 4: margin for error too.
[39:45] Speaker 1: And they're just not that young a defense like Brian Flores.
[39:47] Speaker 1: I think the familiarity with the system allows you to
[39:51] Speaker 1: do more, and they have a lot of veterans. I
[39:53] Speaker 1: think they're going to trust to be where they're supposed
[39:56] Speaker 1: to be and they'll know the system a little better.
[39:57] Speaker 1: What was the offensive number while we're here, I mean
[40:00] Speaker 1: totally biased that the Patriots get two numbers and every
[40:02] Speaker 1: other team gets one.
[40:02] Speaker 4: But with that so the offense, I was just going
[40:04] Speaker 4: to point out their explosive pass free with thirteen point
[40:08] Speaker 4: seven percent, which was the highest in the league. That
[40:10] Speaker 4: was almost a percentage point and a half above the Bills.
[40:13] Speaker 4: There are only two other offenses in the past five
[40:16] Speaker 4: years that have even gotten to thirteen percent, and those
[40:19] Speaker 4: were the forty nine Ers in twenty nineteen and twenty
[40:21] Speaker 4: twenty three. So I think this is an offense that,
[40:25] Speaker 4: while working with not you know, obviously the greatest receiving corps,
[40:29] Speaker 4: had this explosive pass rate that was easily the highest
[40:31] Speaker 4: in the league.
[40:32] Speaker 5: I think now will continue to see that.
[40:35] Speaker 4: I don't know if they're going to hit that high again,
[40:37] Speaker 4: but with aj Brown Romeo Dobbs, I think this is
[40:40] Speaker 4: another place where everyone just makes more sense in that offense,
[40:43] Speaker 4: and I think they'll be able to war in the
[40:45] Speaker 4: rhythm of the offense have some of these explosive plays
[40:48] Speaker 4: to keep that going.
[40:49] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[40:49] Speaker 1: One number you guys had too that made me feel
[40:51] Speaker 1: better was they were also second in DVOA on short passes,
[40:54] Speaker 1: only behind you know, their old friend Mac Jones in
[40:57] Speaker 1: the forty nine ers.
[40:57] Speaker 2: So you know, they can win in multiple types of ways.
[40:59] Speaker 1: They are gonna be in a league that is getting
[41:02] Speaker 1: increasingly heavy, especially after the injury that They've already had
[41:05] Speaker 1: a tight end this offseason with Julian Hill. They were
[41:09] Speaker 1: great with three receivers on the field last year, you know,
[41:12] Speaker 1: and I think they're gonna have three receivers on the
[41:14] Speaker 1: field quite a bit, just because I think that's where
[41:16] Speaker 1: their strength is is a depth at wide receiver. Which
[41:19] Speaker 1: is crazy to say about the Patriots, but they just
[41:21] Speaker 1: have five or six guys that they like that they
[41:23] Speaker 1: can trust, and they frankly don't have a second tight
[41:25] Speaker 1: end anymore.
[41:26] Speaker 2: So it's going to be a lot of three receivers.
[41:27] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[41:28] Speaker 5: I'm a big Ui Riden fan.
[41:29] Speaker 4: I think that's going to that could be helpful, you know,
[41:33] Speaker 4: but maybe you know, it's second half.
[41:34] Speaker 5: Of the year a little bit.
[41:35] Speaker 4: But yeah, like you said, this could be like a
[41:37] Speaker 4: hockey shift at wide receiver, and they could completely change
[41:40] Speaker 4: out guys and still have enough talent there. I keep
[41:43] Speaker 4: aj Brown fresh and things like that. So I think
[41:46] Speaker 4: there is a lot to like about the offense, even
[41:49] Speaker 4: if some of the you know, high, the crazy rate
[41:52] Speaker 4: of you know, deep passes completions that we saw last
[41:54] Speaker 4: year might not sustain. I think they have a lot
[41:57] Speaker 4: to make up for it to kind of stave off
[41:59] Speaker 4: some of the the regression that they might have otherwise.
[42:02] Speaker 1: So I'm reading the Jets profile that you did, and
[42:06] Speaker 1: one of the things that is a slight weakness. It's
[42:09] Speaker 1: not anything the FTN could do to all the great
[42:13] Speaker 1: numbers because it really goes in depth of who had,
[42:16] Speaker 1: you know, the best pace and who was the best
[42:19] Speaker 1: with who rushed five the most and six the most,
[42:22] Speaker 1: and it really breaks it down in all sorts of
[42:24] Speaker 1: different ways. But usually for the worst teams in the league,
[42:27] Speaker 1: that section is less valuable because they've always you know,
[42:30] Speaker 1: taken out the coaches. But not in the case of
[42:32] Speaker 1: Aaron Glenn. I was reading the Aaron Glenn Jets' profile
[42:36] Speaker 1: and thinking, this sounds like a profile of a team
[42:39] Speaker 1: that changed everything, but ultimately they didn't. I know, they
[42:41] Speaker 1: changed their coordinators out and Aaron Glenn is gonna call plays.
[42:45] Speaker 1: But ultimately it's a team that struggled last year. The
[42:47] Speaker 1: projection model has them struggling, and they have them ahead
[42:50] Speaker 1: of the Browns, but that is the only team that
[42:52] Speaker 1: the DVOA has ahead of it going into the year.
[42:55] Speaker 1: What is the number that stood out to you the most?
[42:57] Speaker 4: So the interceptions is what we kind of focused on
[43:02] Speaker 4: a lot for this Jets defense, and because it was zero,
[43:04] Speaker 4: it's the first team to ever do that. But the
[43:06] Speaker 4: Jets were just historically bad at forcing turnovers in general.
[43:10] Speaker 4: They only they had the thirty first in drives ending
[43:15] Speaker 4: with the fumble. They were eight fumbles on defense and
[43:18] Speaker 4: recovered only three. One point seven percent of their drives
[43:23] Speaker 4: ended in a turnover, which is the lowest we have
[43:26] Speaker 4: since nineteen ninety three. The next lowest is at four percent.
[43:31] Speaker 4: So they're just historically bad at creating turnovers, and obviously
[43:35] Speaker 4: that's something we're going to see regress a little bit.
[43:38] Speaker 4: They were able to get their hands on the ball.
[43:39] Speaker 4: They had the same number of pass deflections as the
[43:42] Speaker 4: Patriots did last year, and we kind of expect round
[43:45] Speaker 4: twenty percent of passes. Defense usually end up as interceptions.
[43:48] Speaker 4: So even if it's ten percent this next year, like,
[43:51] Speaker 4: we're going to see a lot more turnovers happened for
[43:55] Speaker 4: this Jets defense, especially with the talent that they also
[43:58] Speaker 4: brought in. It's not the sexiest talent, but I think
[44:00] Speaker 4: they're going to go from pretty bad to maybe competent,
[44:04] Speaker 4: And I think that really does change what this Jets
[44:07] Speaker 4: defense could possibly be, just because they were so insanely
[44:12] Speaker 4: historically bad at forcing turnovers last year.
[44:14] Speaker 1: Yeah, and you pointed out they look it could be
[44:16] Speaker 1: eight out of eleven new defensive starters. You know, some
[44:19] Speaker 1: of the guys. It's tough to even know what to think.
[44:24] Speaker 1: Where did you land? I had such an immediate negative
[44:27] Speaker 1: reaction to all the older players that they signed and
[44:31] Speaker 1: that man they're playing to them. As the offseason's gone along,
[44:35] Speaker 1: I've warmed up to it a little bit. I think
[44:39] Speaker 1: they're just trying to be respectable this year while they
[44:42] Speaker 1: find some young players and if they're coached up better,
[44:46] Speaker 1: like I can see a path to improvement. Kind of
[44:48] Speaker 1: where did you land on? Just in general what the
[44:50] Speaker 1: Jets did on defense?
[44:51] Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it.
[44:53] Speaker 4: I'm I'm okay with it for it's gonna help in
[44:56] Speaker 4: twenty twenty six. I don't know what it's going to
[44:59] Speaker 4: mean for twenty twenty seven, when this is probably going
[45:01] Speaker 4: to matter more for the Jets. So I think it's
[45:04] Speaker 4: like it kind of feels like the Commanders a couple
[45:06] Speaker 4: of years ago when they went out and signed all
[45:09] Speaker 4: of those aging veterans just to be competent around Jayden Daniels.
[45:12] Speaker 4: And this team doesn't have a Jaden Daniels to do
[45:15] Speaker 4: that with either. So I think we're this defense is
[45:19] Speaker 4: again going to look very different in twenty twenty seven,
[45:21] Speaker 4: but it might be okay in twenty twenty six. I
[45:24] Speaker 4: guess that's fine if they just want to be competent,
[45:27] Speaker 4: But in terms of what this team needs to build
[45:29] Speaker 4: going forward, I'm not sure it really helps in the
[45:32] Speaker 4: long term.
[45:33] Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm really curious how the whole Aaron Glenn
[45:36] Speaker 1: taking over the defense goes.
[45:37] Speaker 2: We'll see.
[45:38] Speaker 1: All Right, So you did the AFC East, but you
[45:40] Speaker 1: also did two of the great teams in the NFC North.
[45:42] Speaker 1: The Vikings are a fascinating team to me. They have
[45:47] Speaker 1: among the highest variants I think of any team in
[45:51] Speaker 1: the NFL. That's partly because their defense plays crazy partly
[45:54] Speaker 1: because it's a brand new quarterback.
[45:56] Speaker 2: What's the number you got for the Vikings.
[45:58] Speaker 4: Yeah, So I'm gonna stick with the offense here and
[46:01] Speaker 4: kind of go with the Kyler Murray and kind of
[46:04] Speaker 4: how we are framing him coming into this situation. So
[46:07] Speaker 4: in twenty twenty four, which is really the last full
[46:10] Speaker 4: year we had of Kyler, he ran the fifth most
[46:13] Speaker 4: plays of under center play action. He was twenty first
[46:17] Speaker 4: in dv AWA on those plays, but overall for the
[46:20] Speaker 4: season he was twelfth and passing dv away at eleven
[46:22] Speaker 4: point nine percent, and that was barely under Sam Darnold's
[46:25] Speaker 4: twelve point four percent in twenty twenty four, and that
[46:28] Speaker 4: was the year he broke out with the Vikings and
[46:30] Speaker 4: we all decided he was good again. So there was
[46:33] Speaker 4: only a half a percentage point between Kyler and good
[46:36] Speaker 4: Sam Darnald. So I think one place is I think
[46:40] Speaker 4: there's a much higher baseline for Kyler coming into this
[46:44] Speaker 4: situation than some of these other like reclamation quarterbacks that
[46:47] Speaker 4: we've seen, like a Daniel Jones or even like a
[46:50] Speaker 4: Geno when he started. He has a much higher kind
[46:53] Speaker 4: of what he's proven already in some of his really
[46:56] Speaker 4: good seasons. It hasn't been consistent, but he has that
[46:58] Speaker 4: and I think he still has a little more familiarity
[47:01] Speaker 4: with some of the things he's going to be asked
[47:03] Speaker 4: to do in this Kevin O'Connell offense, with some of
[47:07] Speaker 4: the under center play action, and none of the numbers
[47:09] Speaker 4: that I had earlier or like include his running ability,
[47:13] Speaker 4: which I think is still going to be a weapon,
[47:15] Speaker 4: even if it's not like the thing he does the
[47:17] Speaker 4: most anymore. He still has that ability, and I think
[47:20] Speaker 4: that's really going to translate and setting much higher bar
[47:22] Speaker 4: than we've kind of seen of how we've really talked
[47:25] Speaker 4: about Kyler as this quarterback who's kind of like one
[47:28] Speaker 4: of these reclamation projects.
[47:29] Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great It's a great point because there
[47:31] Speaker 1: are aspects of the offense he's going to be learning
[47:34] Speaker 1: that were in the Cliff offense. Kyler at this point
[47:36] Speaker 1: has been in a handful of different offenses in the NFL.
[47:40] Speaker 1: Also a great point that, yeah, Kyler's like average season,
[47:43] Speaker 1: which you know people have had higher expectations for him,
[47:47] Speaker 1: is basically how the level of play that Sam Darnold's
[47:50] Speaker 1: had for the last couple of seasons and they won
[47:52] Speaker 1: a Super Bowl he got it in slightly different ways,
[47:54] Speaker 1: but I totally agree with that. Let's wrap up with
[47:56] Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions. Give me one number that helps explain
[48:02] Speaker 1: the Lions, And before I ask you for I did
[48:05] Speaker 1: want to just tell the listeners that they in terms
[48:09] Speaker 1: of FTN projects the Lions as a really good team
[48:12] Speaker 1: third overall. I believe in the NFC in terms of
[48:16] Speaker 1: DVOA behind the Rams and the Seahawks, one of the
[48:19] Speaker 1: only teams last year to be top ten in offense,
[48:21] Speaker 1: defense and special teams. So they do not project a
[48:24] Speaker 1: big decline for this Lions team.
[48:25] Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's playing with health a little bit.
[48:28] Speaker 4: We still don't really know what Kirby Joseph and Brian
[48:30] Speaker 4: Branch are going to be and the projections had a
[48:32] Speaker 4: little hard time. I went back and forth with Aaron
[48:34] Speaker 4: about that where I think there's still a little more.
[48:37] Speaker 4: I think we're a little higher on the defense than
[48:39] Speaker 4: maybe it might be in reality, but the offense is
[48:43] Speaker 4: probably not going to be a problem. But that is
[48:44] Speaker 4: where I have this number. So Jamir Gibbs is going
[48:48] Speaker 4: to be the guy this year, and he was the
[48:50] Speaker 4: leed back, but now he's really going to be the
[48:52] Speaker 4: leed back, so on eighty seven early down carries from
[48:56] Speaker 4: eleven personnel. Last year, Gibbs averaged six point five yards
[48:59] Speaker 4: per carry, twenty seven percent success rate and ten point
[49:01] Speaker 4: eight percent dvoa. Ron eighty eight carries from twelve personnel
[49:05] Speaker 4: three point seven yards per carry, a thirty four percent
[49:08] Speaker 4: success rate and negative twenty three point nine percent DVOA.
[49:12] Speaker 4: And so with Drew Petsing coming in, there's some more
[49:16] Speaker 4: tight ends. He was very tight end heavy in Arizona.
[49:19] Speaker 4: I'm just curious of what this offense, especially this run game,
[49:22] Speaker 4: is going to look like. I have confidence that they're
[49:25] Speaker 4: going to figure it out. That Gives is a better,
[49:27] Speaker 4: you know, heavier personnel runner than he showed last year.
[49:30] Speaker 4: I think it's going to be better. But how often
[49:32] Speaker 4: they're using eleven personnel. I don't think they're going to
[49:35] Speaker 4: use a lot of thirteen because you don't want to
[49:36] Speaker 4: take Jameson Williams off the field. But in all of that,
[49:40] Speaker 4: I just think it's going to be very interesting how
[49:41] Speaker 4: they're constructing this offense, and it might be a little
[49:44] Speaker 4: slow to get started, but then I think we'll eventually
[49:46] Speaker 4: see them kind of figure out what the best balance is.
[49:49] Speaker 2: Going to be? Yeah, how how good is this offensive line?
[49:52] Speaker 2: I think?
[49:52] Speaker 5: Is that think that that's going to be a big
[49:54] Speaker 5: thing too?
[49:55] Speaker 1: Like its just when you listed some of those numbers,
[49:59] Speaker 1: and then there was also some in the profile in
[50:01] Speaker 1: the team preview of just like how much they struggled
[50:04] Speaker 1: in short yardage and that speaks to the struggles with
[50:07] Speaker 1: heavy personnel. Just doesn't make sense with the running backs
[50:10] Speaker 1: that they have, but they just weren't. They weren't the same.
[50:12] Speaker 1: And you know, how much better is Tate ratlet is
[50:15] Speaker 1: going to be? How much better is Christian Mahogany if
[50:17] Speaker 1: he wins that job going to be? How good are
[50:19] Speaker 1: they in the middle? Like it's pena Soled, it's a
[50:22] Speaker 1: lot of ifs. Like to me, offensive line is always
[50:25] Speaker 1: very difficult to predict, and they're among the highest variance
[50:29] Speaker 1: offensive lines. If they hit like closer to the top
[50:32] Speaker 1: of the possibilities for their offensive line, they're right there
[50:36] Speaker 1: to me with the Rams and the Seahawks as Super
[50:38] Speaker 1: Bowl favorites in the NFC.
[50:39] Speaker 4: Yeah, I think so too, And I have even if
[50:42] Speaker 4: they are about average, I have confidence that they're going
[50:46] Speaker 4: to be able to scheme around that, and so I
[50:48] Speaker 4: don't have as much worry about the variant of this
[50:51] Speaker 4: offense as I do potentially the defense if that's not
[50:54] Speaker 4: fully healthy going forward.
[50:56] Speaker 1: It got to be one of the best nine win
[50:58] Speaker 1: teams in a while. A lot of your file is
[51:00] Speaker 1: about like the Lions were better than you remember last year.
[51:03] Speaker 1: It was disappointing, but they were the catastrophe that everyone remembers. Dan,
[51:07] Speaker 1: appreciate you. Like I said previously with the thirty third team,
[51:12] Speaker 1: he wrote a lot everyone should check out the FTN
[51:15] Speaker 1: Almanac and go, you know, buy that. And if you're
[51:19] Speaker 1: out there and you're in a hiring position too, I know,
[51:22] Speaker 1: I know, Dan, you're you're looking for work and one
[51:25] Speaker 1: of the best talkers writers that have been coming up
[51:29] Speaker 1: in the industry.
[51:30] Speaker 2: Appreciate your work. Thanks for coming on the show.
[51:32] Speaker 5: Yeah, thanks so much for having me appreciate it.
[51:34] Speaker 1: All right, that was this week of NFL Daily. We
[51:38] Speaker 1: will be back, of course next week. We're starting to
[51:41] Speaker 1: crank up towards daily. We're just about there with the
[51:45] Speaker 1: training camp, you know, starting next week for a couple
[51:48] Speaker 1: of the teams in the Hall of Fame, and then
[51:49] Speaker 1: by the weekend all the teams will be showing up
[51:52] Speaker 1: soon enough, we will be here on Monday. It'll be
[51:54] Speaker 1: myself and Nick Shook talking and previewing all the camp
[51:59] Speaker 1: battles from a round the league.
[52:01] Speaker 2: In the meantime, enjoy your weekend
[52:05] Speaker 4: MHM.

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