# 2026 AFC Win Totals Draft with Nick Wright

An episode of [NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/680904259), 2 Sep 2026, 1 h 06 min.

Audio: https://pdrl.fm/91be81/podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/claritaspod.com/measure/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/9ce11dad-e86a-444f-ba83-ae27003475be/fc9f75c7-45ea-443f-9114-b4b9000e04f3/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=deff018f-4b51-4501-937c-ae27003475d1

Gregg Rosenthal and FS1's Nick Wright take a look at the AFC win totals and draft the over or unders that they feel most confident in headed into the 2026 NFL season. Both Nick and Gregg have surprising AFC North picks. Will the Ravens live up to their lofty billing? Will the Patriots repeat in the AFC East? Can you possibly guess the opposite sides Nick and Gregg are on with the Chargers? NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcasts See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:04] Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where it's time to start putting
[0:08] Speaker 1: pen to paper, voice to recorder, I don't know, and
[0:11] Speaker 1: actually make some freaking final predictions for this season. And
[0:16] Speaker 1: there's no one I would rather do it with than
[0:19] Speaker 1: Nick Wright, back on the show. to do our over-under draft.
[0:24] Speaker 1: This time, Justin, the AFC. Nick Wright, of course, from
[0:28] Speaker 1: What's Right on YouTube. Check out his podcast. And then
[0:31] Speaker 1: First Things First every day. This is your third show
[0:34] Speaker 1: of the day. So I feel special that.
[0:36] Speaker 2: You- Third show of the day. This is, you know,
[0:39] Speaker 2: while today, while I was at the deli getting my lunch,
[0:43] Speaker 2: I was listening to Quarterback Island. And I, you know,
[0:48] Speaker 2: there's just a lot of what I would call Patrick
[0:51] Speaker 2: Mahomes microaggressions going on these days. Like, I heard the
[0:57] Speaker 2: sad fact that you were like, hey, here's the list
[1:01] Speaker 2: of quarterback, the one quarterback who's never left the island.
[1:05] Speaker 2: The all-time great, zero-time All-Pro, zero-time AFC champion, Josh Allen.
[1:11] Speaker 2: I'm like, wow, they kicked... Patrick Mahomes got his knee
[1:13] Speaker 2: blown out, so they kicked him off the island. Then I, like,
[1:16] Speaker 2: it just so... You know what? But I'm glad to
[1:18] Speaker 2: be here. You know you are... either my favorite or
[1:23] Speaker 2: second favorite podcast in the world. And it's the only
[1:28] Speaker 2: reason I don't like coming on is because now tomorrow
[1:32] Speaker 2: I don't have NFL daily to listen to. Cause I'm
[1:34] Speaker 2: on here, but I'm here whenever you want me. So
[1:36] Speaker 2: I can beat you in over unders like I did
[1:38] Speaker 2: last year.
[1:39] Speaker 1: Did I not? I wouldn't be about it. You did.
[1:42] Speaker 2: You did.
[1:43] Speaker 1: We were terrible in the three previous years.
[1:45] Speaker 2: We were really bad.
[1:47] Speaker 1: I had gone 11 and 0 combined. I had just
[1:49] Speaker 1: picked my favorite three, my favorite three, and then four
[1:52] Speaker 1: the following year. And I'd hit all 11. I got
[1:54] Speaker 1: overconfident and we picked eight across the league. Now we're
[1:58] Speaker 1: going to just break it up by conferences because I just,
[2:00] Speaker 1: I want to get more in. I went two and six.
[2:03] Speaker 1: You went three and five.
[2:05] Speaker 2: Well, that's a winner.
[2:06] Speaker 1: The difference, unfortunately, was we split on the Cowboys and,
[2:11] Speaker 1: And you won't remember this. I do remember.
[2:13] Speaker 2: We did a thing where like we split the difference,
[2:16] Speaker 2: but then they had a tie or something stupid. It
[2:19] Speaker 2: screwed you.
[2:20] Speaker 1: But we had a side agreement that we would actually
[2:24] Speaker 1: put up the logo for each other's podcast on each
[2:29] Speaker 1: other's show. uh and which which all the with all
[2:32] Speaker 1: the followers of the white's right podcast you know you
[2:34] Speaker 1: were putting more on the line here so uh eric
[2:37] Speaker 1: if you can do that you have to put up
[2:38] Speaker 1: uh nick's podcast logo just a little bit that part.
[2:42] Speaker 2: I did forget i did forget that we made that
[2:45] Speaker 2: bet holy moly and this is probably now also showing
[2:49] Speaker 2: on that like nfl fast channel or whatever if.
[2:52] Speaker 1: Not quite yet. We get there next week. But yes,
[2:55] Speaker 1: check us out. Subscribe to us on YouTube. You get
[2:57] Speaker 1: the first overall pick. Let's not waste any more time.
[3:00] Speaker 1: And so let's not make it a microaggression. Let's make
[3:02] Speaker 1: it a macro belief in the Chiefs. Come on.
[3:04] Speaker 2: Nope, that's not going to be my first overall pick
[3:06] Speaker 2: because I have draft strategy. Instead, I'm going to wreck
[3:09] Speaker 2: your entire draft board by shocking you. With the first
[3:13] Speaker 2: overall pick, I take over 11 and a half for
[3:15] Speaker 2: the Baltimore Ravens.
[3:17] Speaker 1: That's not wrecking my board. It's on my board. It's
[3:20] Speaker 1: not in the top four, but it was on there.
[3:22] Speaker 1: I would have taken it today.
[3:23] Speaker 2: So listen, the rationale is very simple. I do think
[3:29] Speaker 2: the Ravens were over and Lamar was over John Harbaugh.
[3:33] Speaker 2: I also think there is a slight chance that John
[3:37] Speaker 2: Harbaugh with the Giants is a little closer to Pete
[3:41] Speaker 2: Carroll with the Raiders than anybody would have hoped. And
[3:45] Speaker 2: so I think it's just I love the addition of
[3:48] Speaker 2: Jesse Minter. I think that instantly makes the defense better.
[3:52] Speaker 2: I think Lamar obviously will be better than he was
[3:56] Speaker 2: last year. And, you know, you can make an argument
[3:59] Speaker 2: that over the last five years, Lamar has quite simply
[4:02] Speaker 2: been the most dominant regular season player in the whole
[4:06] Speaker 2: league last year, notwithstanding. I don't think they have an
[4:10] Speaker 2: incredibly difficult schedule. And I think they're going to be
[4:14] Speaker 2: the number one seed in the AFC and win 13 games.
[4:17] Speaker 2: So I have the Baltimore Ravens over 11 and a
[4:20] Speaker 2: half with the first pick of the over under AFC draft.
[4:23] Speaker 1: I am surprised. And I got to admit, I could
[4:26] Speaker 1: have cheated and scouted your picks. I happened to see
[4:30] Speaker 1: you know, your show, you know, the clips being sent
[4:32] Speaker 1: out of Broussard and some of the predictions you had
[4:34] Speaker 1: on Monday of AFCs. I said, I should not watch this.
[4:36] Speaker 1: This is unfair to know about. But I would have
[4:40] Speaker 1: taken the Ravens. The schedule's doing a lot of work.
[4:42] Speaker 1: They play the NFC South out of division. I think
[4:44] Speaker 1: people are a little surprised about the over-unders, the win
[4:47] Speaker 1: totals for the Bengals and the Ravens specifically. But I'm
[4:51] Speaker 1: on the same side of you there. And look, I
[4:54] Speaker 1: think Lamar or Patrick Mahomes are the two best options
[4:59] Speaker 1: to take If you were picking MVP right now in
[5:01] Speaker 1: terms of odds. And I think, I think what's been
[5:04] Speaker 1: underrated here for the Ravens is the defense is what
[5:07] Speaker 1: got John Harbaugh fired. Everyone in the building knew where
[5:10] Speaker 1: the outside doesn't seem to that John Harbaugh is a
[5:12] Speaker 1: defensive coach. He keeps, you know, these coordinators get a
[5:15] Speaker 1: lot of the credit. He's in all those meetings. He's
[5:18] Speaker 1: a defensive guy. It's a, I agree with your point
[5:20] Speaker 1: overall about Harbaugh, about what could happen. But I think
[5:23] Speaker 1: the upgrade coaching-wise on defense, and I like their talent
[5:27] Speaker 1: a little better, especially the depth of their pass rush,
[5:29] Speaker 1: from Jesse Minner on the defense, all he's got to
[5:32] Speaker 1: do is make the defense like a plus defense, and
[5:35] Speaker 1: I think then they're going to win.
[5:36] Speaker 2: Yeah, Derrick Henry's still going to be great, and it
[5:38] Speaker 2: turns out Zay Flowers is Justin Jefferson. Who knew? The
[5:41] Speaker 2: Ravens know. They paid him like it. So, I mean,
[5:43] Speaker 2: I expect a monster year from him. That's the under-the-radar,
[5:47] Speaker 2: most baffling decision of the offseason. giving Zane Flowers $ 35
[5:51] Speaker 2: million a year. But that doesn't hurt them this year. So, yeah,
[5:54] Speaker 2: I think the Ravens love him.
[5:55] Speaker 1: These contracts, you got to look at the fine print.
[5:57] Speaker 1: It's out into the future. It was an extension. At
[6:00] Speaker 1: some point, he'll be the 17th highest paid wide receiver.
[6:04] Speaker 1: And Lamar Jackson likes him. He's also, they need him.
[6:07] Speaker 1: He's the only guy they have. But I don't want
[6:08] Speaker 1: to get stuck on Zane Flowers. I'm going Texans over
[6:11] Speaker 1: nine and a half as my team. I know the
[6:14] Speaker 1: schedule people say is tough. For what it's worth, FDN
[6:17] Speaker 1: Almanac has it as a pretty average schedule. It looks
[6:20] Speaker 1: harder than that to me. I am buying the hype.
[6:22] Speaker 1: I'm fueling the hype. I think the offensive line depth
[6:25] Speaker 1: is better. I think the offense made strides last year
[6:28] Speaker 1: and should be better in year two of the same system.
[6:31] Speaker 1: And I think they're going to pair some things down
[6:33] Speaker 1: with Nick Cayley was trying to fuse like the Patriots
[6:36] Speaker 1: and what Stroud likes to do. The defense just gives
[6:39] Speaker 1: them a crazy floor. And more than anything, D'Amico, Nick,
[6:43] Speaker 1: Has won 10, 10, and 12 in his three years.
[6:46] Speaker 1: He provides a floor. I'm buying this team as a
[6:50] Speaker 1: real deal Super Bowl contender, so I don't care about
[6:52] Speaker 1: the schedule over nine and a half for the Texans.
[6:54] Speaker 2: So I am a little... I don't want to say
[6:59] Speaker 2: I'm skeptical on Super Bowl contender. I am more confident...
[7:04] Speaker 2: that they'll win 10-plus games than I am that they'll
[7:09] Speaker 2: be a good postseason team because I am legitimately concerned
[7:14] Speaker 2: about C.J. Stroud. I mean, the last time we saw C.J.
[7:17] Speaker 2: Stroud in a playoff game, he turned it over four times.
[7:19] Speaker 2: And while if you're Josh Allen, that makes you the
[7:21] Speaker 2: best player in the league, for most guys, we don't
[7:23] Speaker 2: like that. And so I, too, I think there is
[7:28] Speaker 2: potentially really– you know, some scar tissue from that. I
[7:33] Speaker 2: just don't know if they need a good offense to
[7:35] Speaker 2: win 11 games.
[7:36] Speaker 1: And I think that- Are you just trying to make
[7:38] Speaker 1: our producer, Eric Matt, who's a Bills fan, just.
[7:40] Speaker 2: Need a- No, listen. I mean, listen.
[7:44] Speaker 1: He played well in that Broncos game, by the way,
[7:46] Speaker 1: Josh Allen. I know there were a lot of turnovers,
[7:48] Speaker 1: but he made a lot.
[7:49] Speaker 2: See, this is what I'm saying. This is why I
[7:51] Speaker 2: end up being considered some a-hole troll because I hear
[7:58] Speaker 2: people be like, Oh, yeah. Josh Allen, the playoff game
[8:01] Speaker 2: where he had four turnovers and then was he recognized
[8:05] Speaker 2: the only two people in the world who recognize Josh
[8:09] Speaker 2: Allen cost in that playoff game or me and Josh Allen,
[8:11] Speaker 2: which is why he was crying after the game and
[8:13] Speaker 2: his coach was fired because he was crying after the game.
[8:16] Speaker 2: I'm like, hey, that's probably not great. Everyone else is
[8:19] Speaker 2: like best player in the league. You know what?
[8:21] Speaker 1: I just like winding you up, and we're not even
[8:23] Speaker 1: on the bills yet.
[8:24] Speaker 2: Sorry, Eric. Listen, Eric, we'll get to the bills later.
[8:28] Speaker 2: I'm high on the bills this year, kind of. But
[8:31] Speaker 2: I don't think the Texans have to have a great
[8:32] Speaker 2: offense to win 11 games. If they have a good offense,
[8:36] Speaker 2: I think they'll win 12 games. And if they have
[8:38] Speaker 2: a very good offense, they can win the Super Bowl.
[8:40] Speaker 2: I totally agree with you on D'Amico and the defense,
[8:43] Speaker 2: and I think it's like a league average schedule. I
[8:46] Speaker 2: look at it and I'm like, OK, so you get
[8:48] Speaker 2: the you get the AFC. I'm sorry, the NFC East.
[8:52] Speaker 2: I don't think that's a brutal draw at all. Your
[8:55] Speaker 2: strength of schedule games are really hard because second place
[8:58] Speaker 2: got you the Ravens and the I'm sorry, you were
[9:02] Speaker 2: going to play the Ravens anyway, but the Chargers and
[9:03] Speaker 2: the Bills. So that's not great. But yeah, I agree
[9:06] Speaker 2: with you on that. So we have had two picks
[9:09] Speaker 2: where we agree with each other. I think this will
[9:12] Speaker 2: be the first one. where I take a team that
[9:15] Speaker 2: you would have gone the other way on, but I
[9:17] Speaker 2: am a steaming under on a team that in their
[9:22] Speaker 2: defense four years ago was really good for a season.
[9:29] Speaker 2: Under 10 and a half for the Cincinnati Bengals.
[9:31] Speaker 1: Oh, I'm on the same side of you.
[9:33] Speaker 2: Oh, okay.
[9:34] Speaker 1: But it's low. I don't know if I would have
[9:36] Speaker 1: had the guts to make it about my eighth pick
[9:39] Speaker 1: if we get through eight teams. So I'm glad that
[9:42] Speaker 1: you have the stones to do it so early make
[9:46] Speaker 1: the case for me.
[9:48] Speaker 2: Yeah I they have a really good quarterback who you
[9:53] Speaker 2: know what a great quarterback who is an injury risk
[9:57] Speaker 2: but he's a great quarterback they have a great wide
[10:01] Speaker 2: receiver and another really good wide receiver. And that's what,
[10:07] Speaker 2: or what I like about the team end.
[10:09] Speaker 1: They have a fine Dexter Lawrence.
[10:12] Speaker 2: I was going to get there. They have a fine
[10:13] Speaker 2: running back in chase Brown and, Dexter Lawrence it was
[10:17] Speaker 2: an obscene overpay but again that doesn't matter in the
[10:20] Speaker 2: short term he's a really good player but this was
[10:23] Speaker 2: the 30 this was either the worst of the second
[10:25] Speaker 2: worst defense in everything last year Dexter Lawrence and Brian
[10:29] Speaker 2: Cook don't fix that when I look at the Bengals
[10:32] Speaker 2: I'm like I don't trust their defense as a whole
[10:35] Speaker 2: I don't trust their coaching staff at all I think
[10:38] Speaker 2: they have a bad offensive line I don't think they're
[10:41] Speaker 2: the type of team that's going to make in season,
[10:44] Speaker 2: you know, massive trade, Howie Roseman style. And everyone is
[10:48] Speaker 2: so hung up on the fact that four, five years ago,
[10:52] Speaker 2: five years ago, They beat Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill,
[10:58] Speaker 2: and then a second half concussed Patrick Mahomes.
[11:01] Speaker 1: They were good the next year. They were actually better
[11:02] Speaker 1: the next year. They were a good team the next year.
[11:05] Speaker 2: Listen, and so I kid a little bit on that
[11:08] Speaker 2: part of it, but the Bengals, we do this on
[11:11] Speaker 2: the TV show all the time, expect the Bengals to
[11:13] Speaker 2: return to contender status. The Bengals had, in my opinion,
[11:18] Speaker 2: 14 months as a contender from like, November of Joe
[11:24] Speaker 2: Burrow's second year through his third season. Like, and because
[11:30] Speaker 2: that second year they started seven and six, and then
[11:33] Speaker 2: they got hot. They got hot by beating the chiefs
[11:35] Speaker 2: and then got the Super Bowl, beating the chiefs. The
[11:37] Speaker 2: next year they won 12 games, but that's the only
[11:39] Speaker 2: time they've won the division. That's the only time they've
[11:41] Speaker 2: won more than 10 games. And again, The Bengals with
[11:46] Speaker 2: Burrow have never had a top five offense, points or yards.
[11:50] Speaker 2: Even the years he's been fully healthy. And the one
[11:54] Speaker 2: other thing is how this season starts for the Bengals.
[11:58] Speaker 2: I feel like we're going to get a lot of
[12:00] Speaker 2: Emo Joe press conferences. Home Bucks, at Texans, at Steelers,
[12:05] Speaker 2: home Jags. Then you get the Dolphins, then at Ravens.
[12:09] Speaker 2: It feels like they have a real potential to be
[12:12] Speaker 2: two and four and Burrow standing up there talking about how,
[12:16] Speaker 2: you know, how fun is football anymore, which I hate
[12:18] Speaker 2: to see because he is an awesome player. I think
[12:21] Speaker 2: the Bengals win eight, nine games. I'm under 10 and
[12:24] Speaker 2: a half.
[12:25] Speaker 1: I got there in the end, picking them under, despite
[12:30] Speaker 1: my initial reaction to the off season was kind of
[12:32] Speaker 1: the conventional consensus one. It was like, yeah, this, this should,
[12:35] Speaker 1: this should be their year. And then I thought about it.
[12:37] Speaker 1: Zach Taylor's been their coach seven years. As you mentioned,
[12:40] Speaker 1: he's been over 10 wins once. Joe Burrow has been
[12:43] Speaker 1: their quarterback six years. He's done that once. Healthy Joe Burrow,
[12:47] Speaker 1: if you want to go there, has done it once
[12:48] Speaker 1: in three seasons. They are ninth. You want to say, well,
[12:52] Speaker 1: Burrow wasn't healthy a lot of those things.
[12:53] Speaker 2: Sure.
[12:54] Speaker 1: Just over the last three years, when he's healthy, their
[12:57] Speaker 1: team has gone 19 and 16 with him at quarterback.
[13:01] Speaker 1: And the key thing I think you said, because I
[13:03] Speaker 1: think the defense will be better. The key thing to
[13:05] Speaker 1: me is This idea that the offensive line, because they
[13:08] Speaker 1: ranked pretty well in past block win rate or something
[13:11] Speaker 1: last year, is good is wrong, I think, at this point.
[13:15] Speaker 1: Because I don't think Orlando Brown is a plus starter. Wait,
[13:18] Speaker 1: people think the offensive line is good? Yeah, they get
[13:21] Speaker 1: a little bit of credit, like, oh, that they solved that.
[13:23] Speaker 1: And I think that their scheme change could cover it up.
[13:26] Speaker 1: But I also worry about Zach Taylor in a scheme
[13:28] Speaker 1: change with Joe Burrow. I'm with you, but you got
[13:32] Speaker 1: him ahead of me. I will go under on the Titans.
[13:36] Speaker 1: So my Bengals pick was largely just organizational. I just,
[13:39] Speaker 1: I don't like the stink around it. And sometimes I
[13:43] Speaker 1: think the Titans don't get brought in with the Jets
[13:46] Speaker 1: and the Browns and the Cardinals as the very worst.
[13:49] Speaker 1: And they spent a lot of money this year. They
[13:51] Speaker 1: are at six and a half this off season. And
[13:54] Speaker 1: I think this is just where they are. This idea
[13:56] Speaker 1: that Robert Sala can coach up defenses is, It's true-ish,
[14:00] Speaker 1: but if you look at the first year he was
[14:01] Speaker 1: with the Jets, guess what they finished in efficiency, Nick, overall? 14.
[14:07] Speaker 2: 32nd.
[14:07] Speaker 1: Dead last.
[14:08] Speaker 2: No, wait, really?
[14:10] Speaker 1: And then they were top, like, three the next couple
[14:12] Speaker 1: of years. But his first year, when he brought the
[14:15] Speaker 1: system over to the Jets, they were literally dead last.
[14:17] Speaker 1: He got a lot of credit last year for kind
[14:19] Speaker 1: of making it work. They won a lot of games
[14:20] Speaker 1: for the 49ers. They were 27th in DVOA. This is
[14:23] Speaker 1: not Jesse Minter. This is not new.
[14:27] Speaker 1: They let Brian Dable run their off season as like
[14:30] Speaker 1: the front office. That seems weird. Like he, he literally
[14:33] Speaker 1: was responsible for more free agent signings than, than non
[14:36] Speaker 1: Brian Dable signings were just guys. He knew whether it
[14:39] Speaker 1: was on offense or defense, they've had three straight seasons
[14:42] Speaker 1: under six wins. Some of the money they spent, like
[14:45] Speaker 1: I think was okay. Others were Cordell Flott and Alante Taylor.
[14:48] Speaker 1: I just add it all up. I think it's a
[14:50] Speaker 1: underrated division. And I just think they're still one of
[14:53] Speaker 1: the worst three or four teams in the NFL.
[14:55] Speaker 2: So again, this is a little scary. If I had
[14:59] Speaker 2: to pick the Titans, I would have been an under.
[15:01] Speaker 2: So we're four for four in agreement, which given our
[15:04] Speaker 2: record last year is maybe not ideal. But they wouldn't
[15:09] Speaker 2: have been one of my top 10 picks because the only,
[15:15] Speaker 2: and again, I don't know if this is interesting content,
[15:18] Speaker 2: but when five of their, I'm sorry, seven of their
[15:23] Speaker 2: games are against, Colts, Browns, Jets, Raiders, Commanders, Giants, it
[15:30] Speaker 2: feels like they're going to have a lot of opportunities to,
[15:35] Speaker 2: you know, now every time they're on someone's schedule, that
[15:39] Speaker 2: team's fans is like, that's the week we're going to win.
[15:41] Speaker 2: I get that. But I agree with a lot of
[15:44] Speaker 2: what you were saying. The only, let me defend Bobby
[15:47] Speaker 2: Sala a tiny bit. I am, because I was very
[15:53] Speaker 2: critical of him with the Jets. I am open to
[15:56] Speaker 2: the possibility that every coach in league history should have
[16:01] Speaker 2: their Jets tenure just erased from their record. That it's
[16:05] Speaker 2: just like an unwinnable situation. And then we should evaluate
[16:08] Speaker 2: you outside of what you did with the Jets. I
[16:11] Speaker 2: think that, you know, probably I feel almost the same
[16:15] Speaker 2: way with the Browns, which is why I feel terribly
[16:19] Speaker 2: for my guy, Eric Mangini, who got two head coaching
[16:22] Speaker 2: opportunities is the Jets and the Browns. Like you're out
[16:24] Speaker 2: of here, buddy. Like those not ideal. And so I,
[16:29] Speaker 2: I do, I am open to the possibility that Sala
[16:32] Speaker 2: will be good. And I'm open to the possibility that
[16:34] Speaker 2: Cam Ward will, you know, have a big year to jump,
[16:38] Speaker 2: but there's not a lot of evidence that Cam Ward's
[16:40] Speaker 2: going to have a year to jump. It's just that
[16:43] Speaker 2: he was the number one play.
[16:44] Speaker 1: Well, they could tell it could do a lot of
[16:46] Speaker 1: good things. And they, I think five and 12, six
[16:48] Speaker 1: and 11 would be fine.
[16:50] Speaker 2: And that's still an under, that's a good point.
[16:51] Speaker 1: That's an under. I just don't know why they didn't
[16:53] Speaker 1: get treated. There's a couple three and a half over-unders
[16:56] Speaker 1: out there. The Jets are a five and a half.
[16:58] Speaker 1: I didn't get why the Titans got that extra bump.
[17:00] Speaker 2: I guess it was. That's fair.
[17:02] Speaker 1: I'm just going.
[17:03] Speaker 2: To stay in the same division. And the wanton, blatant, outrageous.
[17:12] Speaker 2: These aren't microaggressions. These are macroaggressions. Disrespect.
[17:15] Speaker 1: I know where you're going. And this was next on
[17:17] Speaker 1: my list. I should have thought about what you were
[17:19] Speaker 1: going to do.
[17:19] Speaker 2: For the prince that was promised and my guy, Trevor Lawrence.
[17:22] Speaker 2: These guys won 13 games last year.
[17:25] Speaker 1: It was third on my list. I'm really mad. I
[17:27] Speaker 1: could have seen this coming. There's no way you were
[17:29] Speaker 1: thinking about the Titans. I didn't really think about.
[17:31] Speaker 2: The draft that second. Here's the thing you got to
[17:33] Speaker 2: recognize about me. I have cable TV brain. So even
[17:37] Speaker 2: if I loved the Titans, I'm like, we don't want
[17:40] Speaker 2: to talk about the Titans early.
[17:41] Speaker 1: This is a podcast. We try to treat, especially before
[17:44] Speaker 1: the season, 32 teams. I'm into them.
[17:46] Speaker 2: No, I know that. But so just in gaming out
[17:49] Speaker 2: my picks, I'm going to go sexy teams early. And
[17:52] Speaker 2: while the Jags are not a sexy team to anyone else,
[17:54] Speaker 2: they are to me. They won 13 games last year.
[17:58] Speaker 2: I understand they lost. And I want to ask you
[18:00] Speaker 2: about Travis A. Chan. Remind me. Let's come back to
[18:03] Speaker 2: him in a second. But I get that. Here's what
[18:08] Speaker 2: I know. They're not going to get less out of
[18:10] Speaker 2: Travis Hunter. I know that. I know that Liam Cohen
[18:13] Speaker 2: and Trevor Lawrence seem to get along quite well. We're
[18:16] Speaker 2: going to get them in year two. I know that.
[18:19] Speaker 2: I know that Trevor is coming off arguably the best
[18:22] Speaker 2: year of his career, and they could go minus four
[18:26] Speaker 2: wins from last season. and still hit an over. I
[18:31] Speaker 2: saw they played a playoff game against, you know, the
[18:34] Speaker 2: quarterback of the decade, Josh Allen, and had a lead
[18:37] Speaker 2: with two minutes left. And so I just think the Jags,
[18:42] Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to win the division again.
[18:44] Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to win 13 games again,
[18:47] Speaker 2: but I think they can win 10 and make the
[18:50] Speaker 2: playoffs over eight and a half Jacksonville.
[18:53] Speaker 1: I hate this. It's actually the reason you won. the
[18:56] Speaker 1: over-unders last year is you sniped them from me early
[18:59] Speaker 1: in that draft. And the same, and I said the
[19:01] Speaker 1: same thing. And I bet you would have gotten your
[19:03] Speaker 1: other pick wrong if I had taken them. And I
[19:05] Speaker 1: would have won.
[19:07] Speaker 2: That was my trend.
[19:09] Speaker 1: I was trying to figure out why are they in
[19:11] Speaker 1: the half? Like I, and then I, okay, these are
[19:13] Speaker 1: the reasons I tried to come up with grant. You know,
[19:15] Speaker 1: like I said, this was, this was third on my board.
[19:17] Speaker 1: So I'm, I'm very in. Like, you know, the Prince
[19:20] Speaker 1: that was promised, your guy Trevor Lawrence. Like, his inconsistencies
[19:22] Speaker 1: may be a little baked in. Turnover regression on defense.
[19:25] Speaker 1: They were 6-3, which is good. Not crazy in one-score games.
[19:28] Speaker 1: Maybe a little bit of a year-two fall-off plexiglass principle
[19:32] Speaker 1: when you have that big of a jump up. But
[19:34] Speaker 1: the reason why I dismiss all of that is I
[19:37] Speaker 1: started thinking about it. And Liam Cohen is my pick
[19:42] Speaker 1: for best play caller in the AFC, period. Like, I
[19:45] Speaker 1: put him right there with Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay.
[19:49] Speaker 1: And if you want to throw Ben Johnson and Matt Lafleur,
[19:52] Speaker 1: maybe in that mix, I think Cohen's in it for good. He,
[19:57] Speaker 1: they made such a great hire. he might be a
[20:00] Speaker 1: little more emotional and running the organization. Like there might
[20:02] Speaker 1: be crazy moments, but just in terms of making offense sing,
[20:06] Speaker 1: he's awesome. And he's got the pieces to do it.
[20:08] Speaker 1: So I just don't understand why they aren't going to
[20:10] Speaker 1: win 10 games at least.
[20:13] Speaker 2: All right. This is wild that we have, we're yet
[20:15] Speaker 2: to have some of us, one of us draft the
[20:17] Speaker 2: team and the person be like, I was going to
[20:19] Speaker 2: go the other way. Okay.
[20:21] Speaker 1: Maybe I'll do one just, just to make it interesting.
[20:24] Speaker 1: Cause I, I really doubt you'll go Steelers over eight
[20:28] Speaker 1: and a half, but I'm going to do it.
[20:30] Speaker 2: I'm going to do it. Wow. Wow.
[20:32] Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy. Yeah, this could be done draft wise, but
[20:36] Speaker 1: I do feel strongly about it. All the other AFC
[20:39] Speaker 1: North teams got huge schedule bumps. Like that's the biggest
[20:43] Speaker 1: reason I think the Bengals are at 10 and a half.
[20:45] Speaker 1: The Ravens are at 11 and a half. Mike McCarthy
[20:48] Speaker 1: is absolutely an upgrade on Arthur Smith. I think there's
[20:53] Speaker 1: more worlds than not where Patrick Graham is an upgrade
[20:55] Speaker 1: in terms of modern defenses compared to where Mike Tomlin
[20:59] Speaker 1: was at. You know, never moving TJ Watt around, all
[21:02] Speaker 1: that sort of thing. I have concerns, the defensive backs,
[21:05] Speaker 1: the linebackers, Aaron Rodgers. But I think about line play
[21:09] Speaker 1: when I do all this stuff. I love their defensive line.
[21:12] Speaker 1: And I think the offensive line has got a lot
[21:14] Speaker 1: of potential. And McCarthy's a good floor raiser for offensive lines,
[21:17] Speaker 1: for quarterbacks. I think Rodgers will be a little better.
[21:20] Speaker 1: And the schedule bump, because they play the NFC South
[21:22] Speaker 1: out of division is, is really significant for me. So
[21:26] Speaker 1: I think they'll find their way to get to nine
[21:28] Speaker 1: or 10 wins.
[21:29] Speaker 2: So I agree with you on the schedule bump. I
[21:33] Speaker 2: think that Tomlin was holding more together than we think
[21:36] Speaker 2: than we thought. And I also, I just don't know,
[21:42] Speaker 2: like I was talking about, I was thinking about this
[21:45] Speaker 2: today on the show or on what's right. What's the
[21:49] Speaker 2: over under I would set. on starts by Aaron Rogers.
[21:54] Speaker 2: And I think I would set it at 12 and
[21:56] Speaker 2: a half. And when they, they post by once the
[22:04] Speaker 2: weather gets cold and Aaron's 42, is that right? And
[22:08] Speaker 2: he's going to be 43 or he's 41. He's going
[22:10] Speaker 2: to be 42. Here's who they play starting after the
[22:15] Speaker 2: buy in Cincinnati, in Philadelphia, home for Denver, home for Houston,
[22:21] Speaker 2: at Jacksonville, that's not cold, home for Baltimore. That six game,
[22:27] Speaker 2: five of those games, cold weather, old Aaron Rodgers. I
[22:31] Speaker 2: also don't know if I'm... believing in third stop Mike McCarthy.
[22:37] Speaker 2: So you're, I might've actually picked the Steelers, but it's
[22:41] Speaker 2: because I think I projected them to go six and 11.
[22:45] Speaker 2: So we are in, we are diametrically opposed.
[22:48] Speaker 1: No, I can't.
[22:49] Speaker 2: I see. I feel like once a team's been taken,
[22:53] Speaker 2: it's gone.
[22:54] Speaker 1: I think, you know, you can, I think you can
[22:55] Speaker 1: take the other side. I mean, this, by the way,
[22:58] Speaker 1: even though it says it's my what's right. Can we,
[23:01] Speaker 1: can we take it back? I was just saying the
[23:03] Speaker 1: same thing. Like, we're going to want to cut some
[23:06] Speaker 1: social from this clip.
[23:07] Speaker 2: I know.
[23:08] Speaker 1: You can't do any of the original teams. I'm not
[23:10] Speaker 1: cutting it with what's right with Nick Wright. So, Eric,
[23:13] Speaker 1: behind the glass. There we go. We're back to NFL Daily.
[23:15] Speaker 1: Thank you.
[23:16] Speaker 2: All right. So, is it my go? Yeah.
[23:19] Speaker 1: And this shows, like, I'm not. I try to do
[23:22] Speaker 1: things unemotionally. I am a Rodgers hater. I don't believe
[23:24] Speaker 1: in him. And I still went with him over. You're up.
[23:29] Speaker 2: Wow. You said that and you didn't disclose your back status.
[23:33] Speaker 2: What a hypocrite. I am going under nine and a
[23:41] Speaker 2: half wins for the six time defending off season, AFC
[23:49] Speaker 2: West champion, Los Angeles chargers.
[23:51] Speaker 1: Let's go. I love that. All right.
[23:55] Speaker 2: We're on the opposite sides now from, from the studio
[24:00] Speaker 2: that brought you Brandon. It's Brandon Staley's fault. And then
[24:07] Speaker 2: the sequel of, you know what? This defense might be
[24:11] Speaker 2: a little overrated. And then the trilogy of, gosh darn it,
[24:17] Speaker 2: Joe Alt's actually the league's most valuable player. Get ready
[24:22] Speaker 2: for part four titled, Who Can Win Without Biotish? And
[24:28] Speaker 2: so I'm looking in to the crystal ball of excuses.
[24:34] Speaker 2: And you know what we're about to hear? Yeah. Can
[24:38] Speaker 2: we get him a number one receiver? Quentin Johnston, why
[24:42] Speaker 2: are they still trotting him out there? Lad McConkie's nice.
[24:46] Speaker 2: He's a slot receiver. Today, Jim Harbaugh explained how they're
[24:50] Speaker 2: going to play the hot-handed guard. That would concern me.
[24:54] Speaker 2: Did you see that quote, Greg? I did.
[24:56] Speaker 1: You know, the former dynastic Patriots used to do the
[24:59] Speaker 1: same thing at the beginning of the season if I
[25:01] Speaker 1: wanted to spin it positively. So....
[25:05] Speaker 2: I look at the Chargers roster and I say, I
[25:11] Speaker 2: don't love their skill position, guys. I have major questions
[25:17] Speaker 2: about the interior of their offensive line. You have been
[25:20] Speaker 2: the only person covering... the at least somewhat concern about
[25:26] Speaker 2: Rashawn Slater's return. Like, you've done a good job on
[25:30] Speaker 2: that part of it. I think the defense is fine,
[25:33] Speaker 2: but every year we talk about midway through a season,
[25:37] Speaker 2: we're like, man, what happened to that team? It's like, oh,
[25:39] Speaker 2: they lost their coordinator. Well, they lost one of the
[25:41] Speaker 2: best coordinators, the guy we think is going to help Baltimore,
[25:44] Speaker 2: and they're in a tough division, and their strength of
[25:48] Speaker 2: schedule games– Denver won the division. Their strength of schedule
[25:55] Speaker 2: games are Jags, Steelers, and what's the other one? The I, sorry, Panthers.
[26:02] Speaker 2: The Chargers came in second in the division. Their strength
[26:05] Speaker 2: is schedule games. Instead of the Steelers, they get the Ravens.
[26:08] Speaker 2: Instead of the Jags, they get the Texans. And instead
[26:10] Speaker 2: of the Panthers, they get the Bucs. So they just
[26:12] Speaker 2: have a far more difficult schedule. And the way that
[26:15] Speaker 2: schedule plays out is weeks, I think it's three through ten,
[26:20] Speaker 2: this is the Chargers' run. At Buffalo, at Seattle, home
[26:24] Speaker 2: for Denver, at the Chiefs, at the Rams, home for
[26:27] Speaker 2: the Texans, at the Ravens. Good luck. I think that
[26:31] Speaker 2: they win eight– I don't know if we have them
[26:34] Speaker 2: eight and nine or nine and eight, and we are–
[26:38] Speaker 2: I don't know who's going to be blamed. I know
[26:41] Speaker 2: it won't be Justin Herbert because he can throw the
[26:44] Speaker 2: ball over the mountain, but I.
[26:46] Speaker 1: I just don't, I don't think this is, do you
[26:48] Speaker 1: think Harvard played poorly last year in the regular season,
[26:51] Speaker 1: which is all that these windows are judging? No, no, no, no.
[26:54] Speaker 2: I thought in the regular season, Herbert played really well.
[26:57] Speaker 2: And I think that, I think that, you know, in
[26:59] Speaker 2: a more just universe that, you know, there's a, do you,
[27:03] Speaker 2: are you a Marvel fan? I'm not really a Marvel.
[27:06] Speaker 2: I don't know a ton about that stuff. Maybe Walker does,
[27:09] Speaker 2: but you know, there's a multiverse theory where there's a
[27:11] Speaker 2: bunch of different, you know, versions of the universe. In
[27:14] Speaker 2: the multiverse where the NFL has the English Premier League rules,
[27:19] Speaker 2: where there is no postseason, it's just regular season. Justin
[27:23] Speaker 2: Herbert's the guy so many of our colleagues think he is.
[27:25] Speaker 2: But you're right. This isn't a playoff show.
[27:27] Speaker 1: I mean, I think he is. I think he's that guy.
[27:30] Speaker 1: If you didn't know, you lose your football hipster cred
[27:34] Speaker 1: if you don't. believe Justin and CJ Stroud is better than,
[27:38] Speaker 1: than you think he is. I'm going the other side over,
[27:40] Speaker 1: by the way, I don't care about you thinking they're
[27:42] Speaker 1: off the board. They were, they were one of my
[27:44] Speaker 1: last picks. They would probably would have been my last,
[27:46] Speaker 1: but just, just to make it interesting, I'm going to
[27:48] Speaker 1: go over. What were you going to ask me?
[27:52] Speaker 2: Oh, I have two questions. Cause I also had a
[27:53] Speaker 2: Travis HN question. But first on the chargers, cause I
[27:59] Speaker 2: know there's a regular season show. I know that. I
[28:04] Speaker 2: just have a question for you since you're one of
[28:06] Speaker 2: the Herbert guys. Let's say they win 11 games again.
[28:11] Speaker 2: And he's really good again. Is this the year? where
[28:17] Speaker 2: if this year in the first playoff game, if it's
[28:19] Speaker 2: three in a row, if we have a three-year sample
[28:25] Speaker 2: of the three worst games he has played of the 54,
[28:29] Speaker 2: if the dead last, second last, and third last are
[28:34] Speaker 2: the playoff games, are we then allowed to say, You
[28:37] Speaker 2: know what? Maybe there's something up with this.
[28:40] Speaker 1: I will accept that. And there is absolutely something up
[28:43] Speaker 1: with it. Like he's gotten tight in the playoffs. I
[28:46] Speaker 1: think that is a thing. He was not thinking clearly.
[28:49] Speaker 1: It was not all about the offensive line. But to me,
[28:52] Speaker 1: it doesn't erase what I see in the regular season.
[28:54] Speaker 1: All your points on the schedule are really strong. They
[28:58] Speaker 1: play road games against the Seahawks, the Rams. The Ravens
[29:03] Speaker 1: and the Bills. You could argue that. And the ones
[29:05] Speaker 1: in the division with the Broncos and the Chiefs. You
[29:07] Speaker 1: could argue those are among the hardest possible games in
[29:10] Speaker 1: the NFL this year. It's a brutal schedule. So just
[29:13] Speaker 1: to be clear, that will be the excuse. That will
[29:16] Speaker 1: be what the studio puts up first. I'm going on schedule.
[29:18] Speaker 1: Not be honest. Be honest. I do believe in McDaniels, though.
[29:22] Speaker 1: I do think Akeem Mesidor is like a sneaky defensive
[29:24] Speaker 1: rookie of the year. I do think they're greater... than
[29:27] Speaker 1: the sum of their parts. They do get the tack
[29:29] Speaker 1: on the defense. Like they're just well coached. I'm hoping
[29:32] Speaker 1: you're right that Minter leaving doesn't kill him. And then
[29:34] Speaker 1: I just look at Harbaugh. Like they have won 11
[29:36] Speaker 1: games the last two years. They found a way in
[29:39] Speaker 1: in five of his six years as an NFL head coach,
[29:41] Speaker 1: he's won 11 games. That's like a big number. That's not,
[29:44] Speaker 1: it's not sneaking over the number. So I, that's in
[29:48] Speaker 1: year three of this kind of operation. I just, I
[29:50] Speaker 1: just think all of these AFC West teams are really good.
[29:53] Speaker 1: I I'm relatively high on your chiefs too. And, It's
[29:56] Speaker 1: hard for me to not see them all winning double-digit games,
[29:59] Speaker 1: even if, though, mathematically, that's going to be tough to do.
[30:03] Speaker 2: I mean, hell, the NFC West last year had three
[30:05] Speaker 2: teams win 12. So it certainly, you know what I mean,
[30:08] Speaker 2: can happen. All right, before I do my next over,
[30:11] Speaker 2: or my next pick, I should say, I want to
[30:14] Speaker 2: give you a compliment. And this is something I have
[30:18] Speaker 2: found I struggle with sometimes. So former Jags running back,
[30:23] Speaker 2: now Saints running back, Travis Achan. who forever we thought
[30:28] Speaker 2: was Travis Etienne. He was called Etienne or Etienne, and
[30:32] Speaker 2: then he, in a very lightly watched press conference, told America, no,
[30:39] Speaker 2: my name is Etienne, as in like Devin Etienne. You
[30:43] Speaker 2: have respected the man, his family, and his actual name
[30:48] Speaker 2: and called him the right name. I find myself struggling
[30:52] Speaker 2: with it, not because I don't know it, But because
[30:56] Speaker 2: there are certain improperly pronounced names that America is so
[31:03] Speaker 2: convinced is the proper pronunciation that I fear if I
[31:08] Speaker 2: start calling him on TV, Travis H. And the audience
[31:13] Speaker 2: is going to be like this idiot. He thinks it's
[31:15] Speaker 2: the Dolphins guy. He's confused. But you don't care. You're like,
[31:19] Speaker 2: you know what? Right is right. And so I give
[31:21] Speaker 2: you credit.
[31:22] Speaker 1: Maybe that just speaks to the level of confidence we
[31:25] Speaker 1: have in our respective audiences.
[31:27] Speaker 2: You know what? Maybe that's it. All right.
[31:31] Speaker 1: I went with like Etienne for a little while. I
[31:33] Speaker 1: didn't hear that it was just Etienne. I was like, oh, thanks.
[31:35] Speaker 1: That actually takes the pressure off that it's just Etienne.
[31:38] Speaker 2: Well, maybe I could be wrong.
[31:38] Speaker 1: I was trying to do something. No, no, you're right.
[31:41] Speaker 1: I heard him in a subsequent interview on NFL Network
[31:43] Speaker 1: be like, no, it's just Etienne, just like Devin.
[31:45] Speaker 2: Just like Devin. It's like, okay, cool. All right. I've
[31:49] Speaker 2: waited long enough. Kansas City Chiefs over 10 and a half.
[31:52] Speaker 1: Yeah, if I had to pick them, that is where
[31:55] Speaker 1: I'd go to. But I would not have taken them
[31:57] Speaker 1: in my top draft. So make the case. I mean,
[32:00] Speaker 1: this is, you know, you're playing to type here, going anti-chargers, pro-chiefs, back-to-back.
[32:06] Speaker 2: But I'll allow it. That's fine. You're right. I am
[32:10] Speaker 2: playing to type in that regard. Here's the argument for it. Now,
[32:16] Speaker 2: you know what? Let me say my biggest concern about
[32:19] Speaker 2: the Chiefs. I think the biggest misnomer about the Chiefs
[32:22] Speaker 2: going into the draft was ever that they were going
[32:25] Speaker 2: to go all in on the offensive line. The Chiefs
[32:29] Speaker 2: offensive line last year was awful, but it was awful
[32:32] Speaker 2: because their left tackle missed nine games. They were on
[32:36] Speaker 2: their fourth string right tackle and their interior offensive line.
[32:40] Speaker 2: I think Trey Smith missed a quarter of the season.
[32:43] Speaker 2: The Chiefs have a first-round picket left tackle, a second-round
[32:47] Speaker 2: picket left guard, the best center in the league, one
[32:49] Speaker 2: of the highest-paid right guards in the league, and we'll
[32:51] Speaker 2: see it right tackle. Like, that is a question, but
[32:54] Speaker 2: very few teams have five great offensive linemen.
[32:57] Speaker 1: I mean, they're not happy at right tackle. They think
[32:59] Speaker 1: they have a problem.
[33:01] Speaker 2: No, that's what I'm saying. I agree.
[33:02] Speaker 1: No, no, no.
[33:03] Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying. They have, yeah, question marks maybe
[33:06] Speaker 2: being kind, but my point is, four of their five
[33:09] Speaker 2: offensive line spots they feel really good about with an
[33:12] Speaker 2: asterisk of, I don't know what the hell is going
[33:14] Speaker 2: on with Josh Simmons. And they don't have, like, he
[33:18] Speaker 2: just has to be available in there. If he is,
[33:22] Speaker 2: this team's going to be excellent. They have not had
[33:25] Speaker 2: a legitimate running threat since the first season 12 games
[33:31] Speaker 2: of my home's career with Kareem hunt. Now Pacheco was
[33:36] Speaker 2: nice as a rookie, but it was more like, Hey,
[33:38] Speaker 2: look at this seventh round pick. That is a legitimate
[33:41] Speaker 2: NFL running back, but not someone you had to account for.
[33:43] Speaker 2: One of the reasons the offense died last year, was
[33:47] Speaker 2: because the teams, no matter what look we were in,
[33:51] Speaker 2: no matter what formation, they're like, you're not running. And
[33:54] Speaker 2: if you are, we don't care. And that clouded everything
[33:57] Speaker 2: for Patrick. So that will be better with Kenneth Walker.
[34:00] Speaker 2: I think that last season they had the worst pass
[34:04] Speaker 2: rush they've had in Mahomes' career. They spent three, the
[34:09] Speaker 2: sixth pick, the 29th pick, and the 40th pick on
[34:12] Speaker 2: things that should help that. Man, sure, Delane, everyone's number
[34:15] Speaker 2: one corner in the draft. Peter Woods who was by
[34:19] Speaker 2: some of the mock draft folks a year before this
[34:21] Speaker 2: year's draft was considered a top five pick potentially and
[34:25] Speaker 2: then he kind of took the year off at Clemson
[34:27] Speaker 2: and there's our Mason Thomas kid who's been awesome at
[34:29] Speaker 2: least in the preseason so they address that there the
[34:32] Speaker 2: secondary is super young but aside from Herbert all of
[34:37] Speaker 2: the good quarterbacks that they face are week 10 or
[34:40] Speaker 2: later they face them kind of in a row they
[34:42] Speaker 2: play it's like Josh and Stafford, and Drake, and I
[34:46] Speaker 2: think Herbert a second time, and one other really good quarterback.
[34:49] Speaker 2: So that's when the young defense will have had time
[34:52] Speaker 2: to learn Spaggs' scheme, kind of mature a little bit
[34:54] Speaker 2: like they did in 2022 when they had a super
[34:57] Speaker 2: young secondary and all they did was win the Super Bowl.
[35:01] Speaker 2: So there's all of that. And then there is the
[35:03] Speaker 2: fact that I think last year with Rasheed Rice suspended
[35:09] Speaker 2: and Xavier Worthy injured and Kelsey being on the downslope,
[35:13] Speaker 2: With all of that, at the midway point of this
[35:17] Speaker 2: last season, not two years ago, not three years ago,
[35:20] Speaker 2: after week eight of last year, the Kansas City Chiefs
[35:24] Speaker 2: were the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and Patrick
[35:27] Speaker 2: Mahomes was the huge favorite to be league MVP. It
[35:31] Speaker 2: then all fell apart. Mahomes was terrible in the six
[35:36] Speaker 2: games before he got hurt. The Chiefs were one in five, whatever,
[35:41] Speaker 2: before he got hurt. Eight weeks of last season, just
[35:47] Speaker 2: so everybody knows, Mahomes had 21 touchdowns, Four turnovers, a
[35:52] Speaker 2: 103 rating, was averaging 300, I'm sorry, 297 yards per game,
[35:58] Speaker 2: and was the favorite to win league MVP. He then
[36:00] Speaker 2: played poorly for a month and a half. I think
[36:03] Speaker 2: he'll be fine. I think the Chiefs will be fine.
[36:06] Speaker 2: They are going to start the season off beating Denver,
[36:09] Speaker 2: and then they will coast to 4-0 before they have their...
[36:14] Speaker 2: Because they're... Again, I think they lose five games. I
[36:17] Speaker 2: think the... But their next three games are Colts, Dolphins, Raiders,
[36:22] Speaker 2: and then they get the bye. And so then coming
[36:24] Speaker 2: out of the bye, they get the Chargers, and then
[36:27] Speaker 2: the schedule gets really hard. But I think they'll be
[36:29] Speaker 2: 5-0 going into that and then go 7-5 the rest
[36:32] Speaker 2: of the way. That's 12 wins.
[36:35] Speaker 1: I agree with a lot of what you said. Two
[36:38] Speaker 1: things I'll pull out. Number one, Josh Simmons, as you
[36:42] Speaker 1: explain it, maybe as consequential as just about any non
[36:47] Speaker 1: quarterback to who could go to the Superbowl this year of,
[36:52] Speaker 1: of anyone in the AFC. It really is that big
[36:54] Speaker 1: a deal. And, and that's a tricky place to be
[36:58] Speaker 1: based on his precedent in the NFL so far, which
[37:01] Speaker 1: granted is only a year, but there were mysterious circumstances.
[37:05] Speaker 1: There was a lot of talk behind, you know, and
[37:08] Speaker 1: he could be, he could be an all pro or
[37:10] Speaker 1: he could be MIA, which is a big issue. Second,
[37:14] Speaker 1: I know we wave away ACLs now, but I do
[37:17] Speaker 1: want to see what impact that has on Patrick Mahomes
[37:22] Speaker 1: because what I don't want and what I don't think
[37:24] Speaker 1: will happen, I mentioned he's one of the two people
[37:28] Speaker 1: I'm considering to write down as my preseason MVP, him
[37:31] Speaker 1: or Lamar. What I don't want to happen is another
[37:35] Speaker 1: middling statistical year because what are you going to do
[37:37] Speaker 1: for year four of the Patrick Mahomes is actually putting
[37:41] Speaker 1: up average stats in the middle of his prime campaign
[37:44] Speaker 1: and how that kind of impacts how we think of him.
[37:47] Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to happen, but it would
[37:50] Speaker 1: be awkward if it does happen. And at a certain point,
[37:53] Speaker 1: I'd start to believe in how his career arc is
[37:57] Speaker 1: going to go like a little less. Granted, I'm playing
[38:00] Speaker 1: devil's advocate because I think he's going to pull off
[38:02] Speaker 1: something epic this year that reminds everyone who he is,
[38:05] Speaker 1: but it's difficult. He's coming off of an ACL and
[38:07] Speaker 1: he's got an old not an old team. They're actually
[38:10] Speaker 1: quite young overall, but like not an explosive enough team around.
[38:14] Speaker 2: Yeah. I'm not, I'm not as worried about the career
[38:16] Speaker 2: arc thing as far as how we're going to think
[38:19] Speaker 2: of this era of football. I know that our mutual
[38:23] Speaker 2: friend and a guy who up until a month ago,
[38:27] Speaker 2: I considered, you know, I always said that if I ever,
[38:30] Speaker 2: and you know, I'd say there's, you know, it's not
[38:33] Speaker 2: a 50, 50 chance, but it's better than a, you know, 25%
[38:35] Speaker 2: chance that this happens. if a team ever hires me
[38:39] Speaker 2: to be the president of football operations, that Bill Barnwell
[38:43] Speaker 2: would be my first call to be team general manager. That, though,
[38:49] Speaker 2: changed drastically when I saw him explain how if there
[38:55] Speaker 2: was quarterback of the decade for 2020s, it would easily
[38:59] Speaker 2: be Josh Allen. which is what we call on our show,
[39:02] Speaker 2: an unacceptable opinion. It's just doesn't exist.
[39:06] Speaker 1: I think I probably have Josh Allen third, to be fair.
[39:09] Speaker 2: So that's what I said is unacceptable opinion. Yeah, exactly. The,
[39:17] Speaker 2: but I, I'm not worried about Patrick's kind of like
[39:20] Speaker 2: how we're going to view his career until when he's got,
[39:23] Speaker 2: you know, no one of his era has more MVPs
[39:28] Speaker 2: and the other two quarterbacks who are competing with him.
[39:31] Speaker 2: I've been to zero super bowls and he's been to five.
[39:34] Speaker 1: It's not about that though. Like I it's more, and
[39:36] Speaker 1: I don't want to just get stuck on my homes,
[39:38] Speaker 1: but it's more, is he going to have Dan Marino's career,
[39:41] Speaker 1: which was an awesome career. He's an all time. Great.
[39:44] Speaker 1: And the very, very best of his best. was in
[39:46] Speaker 1: the first five or six years. I don't want that.
[39:49] Speaker 1: And so I went into last year, wow me again, Patrick.
[39:53] Speaker 1: Like do some– That's kind of the point that I
[39:55] Speaker 1: was making. And he started to do it. And he
[39:57] Speaker 1: did it at the beginning of last year. He started
[39:58] Speaker 1: to do it and then it fell apart. And it
[39:59] Speaker 1: fell apart.
[40:00] Speaker 2: I just– I do– I think that the– as odd
[40:03] Speaker 2: as it sounds, like because he, you know, tore his ACL,
[40:07] Speaker 2: I think that the– I think the difference of the
[40:14] Speaker 2: offseason and that I think the three straight Super Bowls
[40:18] Speaker 2: and then last year or the year before last, pardon me,
[40:21] Speaker 2: of winning the way they did. I mean, they in
[40:24] Speaker 2: going for the three, Pete, they were also the league's
[40:27] Speaker 2: last undefeated team, like winning games ridiculously.
[40:31] Speaker 1: And then they made the Super Bowl. They made it right.
[40:35] Speaker 1: They should not be punished for making the Super Bowl.
[40:37] Speaker 2: They went 15 and one when Patrick played and then
[40:39] Speaker 2: made the Super Bowl and then got their teeth kicked in.
[40:42] Speaker 2: And then the next year, Patrick, you know, the whole
[40:45] Speaker 2: team fell apart. I think he's going to be, I
[40:48] Speaker 2: think he is LeBron-esque when it comes to just different
[40:55] Speaker 2: type of cat athletically. And he was like this one.
[41:00] Speaker 2: his recovery from this has been so far out of
[41:03] Speaker 2: schedule the whole time. So I'm not worried about that.
[41:05] Speaker 2: We'll see it though. Week one, Monday night football in
[41:08] Speaker 2: Arrowhead against the Broncos.
[41:10] Speaker 1: Yeah.
[41:10] Speaker 2: But I think, yeah, I think they win that game
[41:12] Speaker 2: and they get to four and O at the bye,
[41:14] Speaker 2: which makes the over the right play.
[41:16] Speaker 1: You're, you're, you're making me, you know, you're, you're helping
[41:20] Speaker 1: maybe push me to go in. I think I just,
[41:22] Speaker 1: people love a narrative. My home's MVP this year.
[41:25] Speaker 2: My home's MVP would be sick. God, it would be sick.
[41:28] Speaker 1: You know who, uh, I guess can announce, I don't know.
[41:31] Speaker 1: Are we supposed to say it publicly? I, I now
[41:33] Speaker 1: have a vote for the first time. So you can,
[41:36] Speaker 1: you can, you can play, play it up to me.
[41:38] Speaker 2: Wow. Who they strip.
[41:41] Speaker 1: I think people get tired of these. I actually heard that. Like,
[41:44] Speaker 1: you know, it's like, man, they don't want the heat.
[41:46] Speaker 1: They're like, we gotta, we gotta, we gotta bunch available.
[41:48] Speaker 1: So what an honor.
[41:50] Speaker 2: I've been campaigning for an NBA awards vote forever, but
[41:54] Speaker 2: they won't give me one.
[41:54] Speaker 1: So now I don't, I did.
[41:56] Speaker 2: I did.
[41:57] Speaker 1: Push for it. It was a squeaky wheel.
[41:59] Speaker 2: You deserve one, bro.
[42:01] Speaker 1: Let's go Browns under five and a half.
[42:03] Speaker 2: Wow.
[42:04] Speaker 1: It's all about the defense. They were this bad defense. Yes,
[42:08] Speaker 1: because they were this bad as an overall team last
[42:11] Speaker 1: year with the defense that they had. And people are really,
[42:15] Speaker 1: you know, chewing away the fact that. Jim Schwartz is
[42:19] Speaker 1: not there anymore. And I think they maxed out a
[42:22] Speaker 1: very specific style of uncomplicated defense that usually had kind
[42:27] Speaker 1: of a shelf life. And they replaced Jim Schwartz, who
[42:31] Speaker 1: was furious and had all of his guys there with,
[42:34] Speaker 1: with Mike Rutenberg, who's never coordinated a defense. There's good
[42:37] Speaker 1: players there. I love Jared verse. Like I think, he'll
[42:40] Speaker 1: actually make that trade look respectable. But the rest of
[42:44] Speaker 1: the defense, talent-wise, is just fine. They could be a
[42:48] Speaker 1: below-average defense, and that exposes the quarterback situation. We know
[42:54] Speaker 1: Watson's not good. Shitter is probably not good. He's hoping
[42:58] Speaker 1: to be a bridge quarterback or high-quality backup. And more
[43:03] Speaker 1: than anything, how much do they really... want to win
[43:07] Speaker 1: i was just a little surprised they had a couple
[43:10] Speaker 1: extra wins than the dolphins for instance i know the
[43:12] Speaker 1: schedule we talked about yeah i think it's only good
[43:15] Speaker 1: but the rest of the division schedule is not easy
[43:17] Speaker 1: so i feel like this is a three or four
[43:20] Speaker 1: win team so.
[43:21] Speaker 2: I think it's only because they get titans raiders jets
[43:24] Speaker 2: giants yes plus they never go winless in the division
[43:29] Speaker 2: Like they always, you know, they play the, I mean,
[43:32] Speaker 2: you could fact check me on that. Maybe I'm wrong,
[43:34] Speaker 2: but it feels like, like I think Burrow like is,
[43:37] Speaker 2: has like a 500 record against the Browns.
[43:40] Speaker 1: And Monken could be a good head coach. I just
[43:44] Speaker 1: think they're at cross purposes overall as an organization. And
[43:48] Speaker 1: when this gets into like, they're in the mix for
[43:51] Speaker 1: Arch Manning and Dante Moore, like we could be seeing
[43:54] Speaker 1: Taylor and green starting games. I just, I agree.
[43:57] Speaker 2: I'd be on the same page. I'm now, I ain't
[44:02] Speaker 2: going to stun you because you were saying I was going,
[44:05] Speaker 2: you know, I was very on brand. There is no
[44:07] Speaker 2: team I was more wrong about last year than this team.
[44:11] Speaker 2: I picked them to finish last in the division. I
[44:16] Speaker 2: not so lightly mocked their overwhelmingly arrogant, trash-talking head coach,
[44:22] Speaker 2: and all they did was stick it to me all
[44:24] Speaker 2: year long. I am going over nine and a half.
[44:30] Speaker 2: for the Denver Broncos. This, listen, I get it. They
[44:34] Speaker 2: trailed in 15 games last year. They somehow won 14
[44:38] Speaker 2: games last year. They trailed in 15. The one score
[44:41] Speaker 2: wins thing is crazy. They're going to legitimately miss Jonathan
[44:45] Speaker 2: Brinkley Myers and they're going to miss Jonathan Cooper. Jonathan
[44:48] Speaker 2: Brinkley Myers, they knew they weren't going to have Jonathan Cooper.
[44:50] Speaker 2: They didn't. I get that piece of it. However, they
[44:53] Speaker 2: have a great offensive line. They, I begrudgingly must admit,
[44:58] Speaker 2: they have a very good coach. They have one of
[45:01] Speaker 2: the best home field advantages in the sport. And they're
[45:05] Speaker 2: another one of these that, like my Jags, they can
[45:09] Speaker 2: go minus four wins from last year and hit the over.
[45:14] Speaker 2: And I don't look at the Chargers as good as
[45:18] Speaker 2: other people do. So that makes, at least in my eye,
[45:22] Speaker 2: the schedule not quite as good. grueling as it is
[45:25] Speaker 2: for some. I just think this is a 10-11 win team.
[45:30] Speaker 2: I like the addition of Waddle if he's healthy, and
[45:34] Speaker 2: I don't think they'll be as good as they were
[45:36] Speaker 2: last year, and they won't be as fortunate in those
[45:38] Speaker 2: one-score games, and Bo Nix you know, does have to
[45:42] Speaker 2: be better other than just late when they're trailing, but
[45:46] Speaker 2: great home field, good head coach, awesome offensive line, really
[45:50] Speaker 2: good defense, even if it's not quite as good as
[45:52] Speaker 2: last year, that should be enough, enough for 10 wins
[45:56] Speaker 2: and back in the playoffs. So I'm over for Denver.
[45:59] Speaker 1: I'm over too. And I I'm over on a lot
[46:01] Speaker 1: of these AFC teams and I did balance it out.
[46:03] Speaker 1: I I've done in just writing it down, both, both conferences,
[46:06] Speaker 1: we're going to have Dave Damoshek on, to do the NFC,
[46:10] Speaker 1: and I went over on the Broncos. I'm with you.
[46:14] Speaker 1: Even the arguments against them made by myself feel intangible
[46:19] Speaker 1: and searching for something. It's just like, oh, the team
[46:21] Speaker 1: that you expect that has everyone back and got close,
[46:24] Speaker 1: it usually doesn't work out the same the next year,
[46:27] Speaker 1: but that's fine. I think they could be an 11-win
[46:29] Speaker 1: wildcard team or a 10-win wildcard team, and you win,
[46:31] Speaker 1: you're over. They're too good in terms of their line
[46:34] Speaker 1: play on both sides of the ball to go against.
[46:36] Speaker 1: I'm going to go Bills over 10 and a half. The,
[46:40] Speaker 1: the schedule goes from.
[46:43] Speaker 2: 31st.
[46:44] Speaker 1: This was a little underrated last year. It's like, yeah,
[46:46] Speaker 1: the Patriots had the easiest schedule of all time. The
[46:48] Speaker 1: bills have the second easiest schedule last season. And it
[46:51] Speaker 1: goes to a more challenging schedule. FDN Almanac only has
[46:56] Speaker 1: them as I think the 10th hardest schedule on paper.
[46:58] Speaker 1: It looks harder to me. They've won 11 games, six
[47:01] Speaker 1: straight years. Now this is the argument that got us
[47:04] Speaker 1: wrong on the chiefs last year. I think I took
[47:07] Speaker 1: them and sniped them from you. That didn't work out,
[47:10] Speaker 1: but Josh Allen is to use your guy, LeBron, maybe a,
[47:15] Speaker 1: maybe a different NBA superstar would be better. I'm just
[47:18] Speaker 1: trying to think of a guy who's like a walking,
[47:20] Speaker 1: you know, 48, 50 wins. Like he has been a
[47:23] Speaker 1: walking 11 wins. And the biggest X factor here is
[47:27] Speaker 1: Jim Leonard. Jim Leonard, the defensive coordinator is one of,
[47:32] Speaker 1: the most highly thought of rising coaches among coaches of
[47:37] Speaker 1: the last seven, eight years. Like from when he was
[47:40] Speaker 1: at Nebraska, like moving up, like people just believe that
[47:43] Speaker 1: he's the guy and he was blocked by Vance Joseph
[47:46] Speaker 1: in Denver. So he just wasn't going to get that promotion.
[47:50] Speaker 1: But I think there's a chance where he comes in
[47:52] Speaker 1: as a very cool, hot shot defensive coordinator and raises
[47:56] Speaker 1: their talent floor. Because the talent on defense is just eh.
[47:59] Speaker 1: But ultimately, I think 12 is about where I see
[48:02] Speaker 1: this team. I think they're a safer team by far
[48:05] Speaker 1: than the Patriots. And I feel good about over 10
[48:07] Speaker 1: and a half.
[48:08] Speaker 2: So I also would have been over. I have them
[48:10] Speaker 2: at 11 and it's 10 and a half. So I
[48:12] Speaker 2: wouldn't have, you know, they would have been one of
[48:14] Speaker 2: my later picks. But I agree with you. I am
[48:16] Speaker 2: a little... If I were a Bills fan, here is
[48:21] Speaker 2: the things I'd be concerned about. Was, did Sean McDermott
[48:27] Speaker 2: not get enough credit for what he got out of
[48:30] Speaker 2: that defense in the regular seasons? Like that would be
[48:33] Speaker 2: at least a question I would have.
[48:35] Speaker 1: And I used to make that case and I'm trying
[48:37] Speaker 1: to make the other side of it. It started to
[48:38] Speaker 1: lose a little traction the last few years, but you're
[48:41] Speaker 1: absolutely right.
[48:42] Speaker 2: But it also might be the last few years they had,
[48:44] Speaker 2: you know, the talent started diminishing significantly. So that part,
[48:49] Speaker 2: you know, is a concern. Is it a good idea
[48:52] Speaker 2: to let your quarterback pick your head coach and have
[48:54] Speaker 2: him pick his buddy?
[48:57] Speaker 1: And have one of the offensive line coaches compare? having
[49:02] Speaker 1: him to like the cool substitute teacher yeah the uncle.
[49:05] Speaker 2: Teacher one of the players like yeah it's like maybe.
[49:07] Speaker 1: I said substitute teacher yeah um.
[49:09] Speaker 2: I mean that those are those are legitimate concerns um
[49:14] Speaker 2: i don't know if dj moore if we weren't here's
[49:18] Speaker 2: what i would say if we were stacking up every
[49:22] Speaker 2: team's number one receiver, how many do we list before
[49:27] Speaker 2: we say DJ Moore? So I, now it depends on
[49:31] Speaker 2: what you think, you know, do you think last year
[49:34] Speaker 2: was a blip? It was a trend, whatever it is.
[49:36] Speaker 2: Those are all, to me, very legitimate concerns. The counterpoint is,
[49:43] Speaker 2: to your point, they win 10 games every year, 11
[49:48] Speaker 2: games every year with Josh Allen. Despite the allegations that
[49:56] Speaker 2: Josh Allen has no help, James Cook, you know, I
[49:59] Speaker 2: think won the rushing title last year. That seems good.
[50:03] Speaker 2: They have an awesome, they have an awesome offensive line.
[50:07] Speaker 2: The rushing champ last year, Josh Allen's great. And so, yeah,
[50:14] Speaker 2: I mean, I do think with respect to your Pats,
[50:17] Speaker 2: they are still the class of the AFC East. I
[50:20] Speaker 2: expect them to win the division, to regain their spot
[50:24] Speaker 2: atop the division. And I think they're going to win
[50:27] Speaker 2: 11 games. So I agree with you. But if the
[50:30] Speaker 2: total is 10.5 and I am winning 11, it's not
[50:33] Speaker 2: a bet I would make. And I know you're obviously–
[50:35] Speaker 2: we're not gambling on NFL Daily. But it wouldn't have
[50:38] Speaker 2: been one of my picks. But I agree with you directionally.
[50:42] Speaker 1: Yeah, the issues– to me, would be the secondary in
[50:45] Speaker 1: general in your county on Jim Leonard to make up
[50:48] Speaker 1: for that. I just don't know if they have enough
[50:49] Speaker 1: juice up front to make up for a pretty inexperienced,
[50:53] Speaker 1: slower secondary. And then it would be the offensive line.
[50:56] Speaker 1: I never.
[50:58] Speaker 1: You're worried about the offensive line? Just a little, because
[51:01] Speaker 1: they've played at such a high level, and they're a
[51:02] Speaker 1: good run-blocking group, but sometimes you count on that offensive line,
[51:05] Speaker 1: which has been steady. It's just hard to find offensive
[51:08] Speaker 1: lines that are good year after year after year after year,
[51:10] Speaker 1: and they've had great continuity, but if that was impacted,
[51:14] Speaker 1: and they definitely did not pass pro as well last year,
[51:17] Speaker 1: then suddenly things fall apart a little. But overall... I'm
[51:21] Speaker 1: into it. Okay, we're down to our last two picks each,
[51:23] Speaker 1: and we'll do them quick. We've got to get Nick
[51:24] Speaker 1: out of here. But I wanted to ask more of
[51:26] Speaker 1: an existential question. As you get older, Nick, you're a grandfather.
[51:30] Speaker 2: I'm a grandfather, yeah. Thank you.
[51:33] Speaker 1: But you are a younger man than me, I'm assuming.
[51:35] Speaker 1: I know.
[51:35] Speaker 2: I'm 41.
[51:37] Speaker 1: Yes, you're much younger. You're much younger. I'm 47.
[51:40] Speaker 2: You're 47?
[51:42] Speaker 1: Yeah.
[51:42] Speaker 2: You look great, buddy.
[51:45] Speaker 1: I just, you know, my daughter started in high school.
[51:47] Speaker 1: I'm just small. That's why I thought you were.
[51:49] Speaker 2: No, no, but you can't. I can't tell you're short
[51:51] Speaker 2: from sitting down. No, you look great. I would have
[51:55] Speaker 2: thought you were 43.
[51:56] Speaker 1: Thank you. I mean, yeah.
[51:57] Speaker 2: Wow. Wow.
[51:58] Speaker 1: Four years.
[51:59] Speaker 2: Okay. No.
[52:01] Speaker 1: As we get older in this, and I think this
[52:03] Speaker 1: was specifically to the AFC this year. And you're aware
[52:06] Speaker 1: of some years, like last year, our over-unders didn't do
[52:09] Speaker 1: so good. We actually only know in our hearts that
[52:13] Speaker 1: we know so much. As you get older, do you
[52:17] Speaker 1: have any struggle as a takesman having any less confidence
[52:23] Speaker 1: that you can predict the future with such confidence when
[52:28] Speaker 1: in your heart you know that none of us really
[52:31] Speaker 1: know what's going to happen? How do you wrestle with that?
[52:35] Speaker 2: I have more confidence than ever. Every year, I'm just
[52:40] Speaker 2: acquiring more and more information.
[52:42] Speaker 1: But to quote one of my favorite tennis players, Naomi Osaka,
[52:46] Speaker 1: the results aren't always resulting for you.
[52:50] Speaker 2: Naomi has given some great interviews. She did the Iverson
[52:54] Speaker 2: tribute today or yesterday. All right, so listen. This is
[53:00] Speaker 2: a fair question. It's a real question. Let me answer
[53:03] Speaker 2: it as a professional takes man. And I like that. I,
[53:05] Speaker 2: you know, people, when I was, I just did, I
[53:08] Speaker 2: just traveled with my wife in Europe for two weeks.
[53:11] Speaker 2: And when people would ask me what I do for
[53:12] Speaker 2: a living, I would say, I'm one of those guys
[53:14] Speaker 2: that argues about sports on TV. Um, but, uh, and
[53:21] Speaker 2: I respect the audience's intelligence enough to know the difference
[53:27] Speaker 2: between when I go on the air and I say,
[53:32] Speaker 2: what I very rarely do reporting, but I occasionally do
[53:37] Speaker 2: some actual reporting of stuff that I know. And I
[53:42] Speaker 2: a little more often do in what I would call
[53:45] Speaker 2: informed opinions about things that have happened that were, you know,
[53:50] Speaker 2: where I'm not, you know, reporting things, but I have,
[53:55] Speaker 2: I have, I know stuff and I'm giving foreign opinion.
[53:59] Speaker 2: I expect the audience to, to recognize if I am
[54:04] Speaker 2: talking about things that have already occurred with real conviction
[54:10] Speaker 2: it is because I know what I am saying is
[54:13] Speaker 2: true I also expect the audience to know that if
[54:18] Speaker 2: I am talking about things that have not yet occurred
[54:22] Speaker 2: with real conviction, we're all guessing. Pardon me, sorry.
[54:27] Speaker 1: It's a good answer.
[54:28] Speaker 2: You know what, like it is, I spend a lot
[54:31] Speaker 2: of time prepping and I do gamble. And so I
[54:37] Speaker 2: put my money where my mouth is, do these things.
[54:39] Speaker 2: But to your point, it's things that have not yet occurred.
[54:44] Speaker 2: So when people are like, oh my God, My last
[54:49] Speaker 2: few years, my NFC Super Bowl picks have just been...
[54:52] Speaker 2: I picked the Bears. Not last year, bro.
[54:57] Speaker 1: No, I know.
[54:58] Speaker 2: And then last year, I picked the Bucs. I've picked
[55:01] Speaker 2: teams that don't even make the playoffs. I guess last year,
[55:04] Speaker 2: I picked also the Chiefs. They didn't make playoffs either.
[55:06] Speaker 2: People were like, oh, this guy. And it's like, man,
[55:11] Speaker 2: we're predicting the future is what we're doing. We're just
[55:13] Speaker 2: doing it as well as we can. And so, yeah,
[55:15] Speaker 2: I'm not... I'm not worried about it.
[55:18] Speaker 1: I think part of it is, is you believe in
[55:23] Speaker 1: your picks. Now you must believe in some more than others,
[55:26] Speaker 1: but you're excellent at expressing true belief in your picks.
[55:31] Speaker 1: And I found, and I don't want to project as
[55:34] Speaker 1: I get older and I'm looking at this as the
[55:36] Speaker 1: off season goes along and I have a daily just
[55:37] Speaker 1: football show. It's like, I'm ultimately at some point presenting
[55:41] Speaker 1: both sides and thinking about it both on both sides
[55:44] Speaker 1: and And especially with this AFC, which seems extremely jumbled
[55:47] Speaker 1: to me, I can see both sides for everyone. And
[55:50] Speaker 1: so at the end of the day, when we get
[55:53] Speaker 1: to this point, I feel like I feel a little
[55:55] Speaker 1: less strong than I used to about what's going to happen.
[55:59] Speaker 1: I don't know if that makes me more.
[56:00] Speaker 2: No, I think that makes you, you know, wise and mature.
[56:06] Speaker 2: It would probably make you not my number one pick
[56:12] Speaker 2: for like first take host.
[56:14] Speaker 1: But you know, you, you work to the show you're on.
[56:19] Speaker 1: Then suddenly, that's right. Suddenly I'm Skip Bayless circa 2005.
[56:24] Speaker 2: Right. You could do it. All right. All right. Last pick.
[56:27] Speaker 1: Let's just do one more pick each. Cause that'll actually
[56:29] Speaker 1: give us an odd number of, of teams. We'll have
[56:32] Speaker 1: seven each and that way we'll each end up as
[56:34] Speaker 1: a winner or a loser.
[56:35] Speaker 2: I like, I know, by the way, I just got
[56:37] Speaker 2: to tell you this, buddy. You made that exact same
[56:40] Speaker 2: math error last year, the exact same one, that we
[56:45] Speaker 2: need to pick an odd number of teams. That way,
[56:47] Speaker 2: they'll definitely be a winner or a loser. But that's
[56:49] Speaker 2: not how it works. What would need to happen is
[56:53] Speaker 2: you and I would need to pick a different number
[56:55] Speaker 2: of teams, and then it would be percentage. But it
[56:57] Speaker 2: doesn't matter. I'm going under on your New England Patriots.
[57:02] Speaker 2: And barely. I think they're going to win 10 games.
[57:07] Speaker 2: But I think it's more likely they win nine than
[57:10] Speaker 2: they win 11. And so that's why I'm going under
[57:13] Speaker 2: and because the 10 wins would be an under. So that's,
[57:16] Speaker 2: you know, that's fine.
[57:19] Speaker 1: I am, I do.
[57:21] Speaker 2: Think that the schedule upgrade, the upgrade in difficulty is
[57:28] Speaker 2: significant on the schedule. Everybody knows that. Last year was
[57:32] Speaker 2: the easiest schedule this century in the NFL since the
[57:36] Speaker 2: 99 Rams. So that is something. I am at least
[57:41] Speaker 2: slightly concerned about the offensive line. So that is something.
[57:45] Speaker 2: You and I both didn't love the Will Campbell pick
[57:48] Speaker 2: from the moment it happened, and I haven't loved him
[57:51] Speaker 2: yet as a pro. So there's that. I went going
[57:57] Speaker 2: into the playoffs, my confidence level that Drake May was
[58:02] Speaker 2: going to be a perennial top five quarterback over the
[58:06] Speaker 2: next decade was at like, 8.8 out of 10. Like
[58:12] Speaker 2: I was like, just pencil them in. Coming out of
[58:14] Speaker 2: the playoffs, it's at a 7.8 out of 10. Not
[58:18] Speaker 2: a huge hit, but there was enough of a holy
[58:22] Speaker 2: moly that it concerned me a bit. All of that,
[58:26] Speaker 2: plus the Super Bowl hangover, you know, I just think
[58:30] Speaker 2: is enough to take a team that won... that you
[58:33] Speaker 2: guys win 14, 14 games down to 10, which would
[58:37] Speaker 2: be an under. So I'll say under for the past.
[58:39] Speaker 1: Yeah, I struggled with them. I don't want to go
[58:42] Speaker 1: on the record because I don't want to be rooting
[58:43] Speaker 1: against them. But I don't feel strong. That feels like
[58:46] Speaker 1: the right number, and 10 feels about right. Their route
[58:49] Speaker 1: is really early 2010s Patriots. I'm not putting Drigme at
[58:53] Speaker 1: that level, but I do think their way to get
[58:56] Speaker 1: to 11 or 12 is top three offense and situational
[59:00] Speaker 1: defense with a coach that's pretty good at game management.
[59:04] Speaker 1: And you just win some high scoring games by making
[59:07] Speaker 1: enough defensive stops. And I think. there is a route
[59:10] Speaker 1: to doing that. My biggest question is will Campbell related?
[59:13] Speaker 1: Cause you reportedly had a good camp and there was
[59:16] Speaker 1: a chance that their offensive line is significantly better with
[59:19] Speaker 1: Elijah Vera Tucker. And if Campbell improves, and if that
[59:22] Speaker 1: happens with the wide receivers, like they are potentially a
[59:25] Speaker 1: top three offense. And then, you know, then it's easy
[59:28] Speaker 1: to win some games.
[59:29] Speaker 2: So real quick, before you do your final pick, can
[59:33] Speaker 2: I suggest the tiebreaker? Sure. You and I went oppo
[59:38] Speaker 2: on the Chargers, right?
[59:40] Speaker 1: We did.
[59:40] Speaker 2: That was the team that I went under and you
[59:43] Speaker 2: said you're going to use one of your picks as
[59:45] Speaker 2: an over, right?
[59:46] Speaker 1: If we tie the Chargers.
[59:47] Speaker 2: If we tie whoever gets the Chargers thing right wins.
[59:50] Speaker 1: So that's like, that's counting like two and a half times.
[59:53] Speaker 1: Cause you know, it's going to give us. Yeah, exactly.
[59:56] Speaker 2: Yeah. But I mean, that is good.
[59:57] Speaker 1: A little more juice for you to root against.
[1:00:00] Speaker 2: I don't listen.
[1:00:01] Speaker 1: The most beleaguered misunderstood fan base in the NFL. Cause there,
[1:00:06] Speaker 1: there are few, but they're mighty. I don't know if
[1:00:08] Speaker 1: you see the engagement on chargers posts are great. If
[1:00:11] Speaker 1: you come after it, like they, they come after you.
[1:00:13] Speaker 1: And when you're there, it's got a lot of fans.
[1:00:16] Speaker 1: It's when you're there and it is like, I went
[1:00:19] Speaker 1: to the Eagles chargers last year. it's a bummer that,
[1:00:22] Speaker 1: you know, it's two thirds Eagles, but the ones that
[1:00:24] Speaker 1: are there are loud. And I respect the hell out
[1:00:26] Speaker 1: of like that. They're doing it.
[1:00:28] Speaker 2: So there you go. All right. What's your last pick?
[1:00:33] Speaker 1: I I'll just go by my list. Cause you took
[1:00:35] Speaker 1: chiefs over from me. It seems mean to go Raiders under,
[1:00:38] Speaker 1: but I do believe in that. I think the entire
[1:00:41] Speaker 1: AFC South is a little better. I'm going Colts over
[1:00:43] Speaker 1: seven and a half. The schedule's easier on paper. You're
[1:00:47] Speaker 1: counting on Daniel Jones, period, especially Daniel Jones coming off
[1:00:50] Speaker 1: a torn Achilles. That's easily the biggest problem here. But
[1:00:53] Speaker 1: Shane Steichen has yet to lose 10 games in a season.
[1:00:57] Speaker 1: He's topped it three in a row. I'm intrigued what
[1:01:00] Speaker 1: Lou Anarumo is going to do with this defense. It's
[1:01:02] Speaker 1: a tough defense, like what he asked them to do
[1:01:05] Speaker 1: without veteran players. At least going into the season, they're
[1:01:07] Speaker 1: healthier and I think could be able to have some
[1:01:11] Speaker 1: pop-up games where Lube just gives teams a lot of problems.
[1:01:15] Speaker 1: And you were talking about MVP halfway through the season.
[1:01:17] Speaker 1: Another option, other than Patrick Mahomes, was Daniel Jones. They
[1:01:21] Speaker 1: had one of the greatest offenses in NFL history through
[1:01:24] Speaker 1: Week 10. It fell apart, but I only need to
[1:01:26] Speaker 1: get to eight wins here. I think they're better than that.
[1:01:29] Speaker 2: So here is... Listen, I have them going 7-10, so
[1:01:34] Speaker 2: I don't have a big disagreement. I do wonder... First
[1:01:40] Speaker 2: three weeks, Ravens at Chiefs home for Texans. Oof.
[1:01:45] Speaker 1: I wish I knew that.
[1:01:46] Speaker 2: Does an 0-3 start, are we all of a sudden
[1:01:50] Speaker 2: saying the words interim head coach Lou Anarumo?
[1:01:54] Speaker 1: I hope not. And I'm glad you pointed that out
[1:01:56] Speaker 1: because I even wrote it down. That for a team
[1:02:00] Speaker 1: I'm taking an over on, there's a real chance they're
[1:02:03] Speaker 1: drafting top three. three to five, and it all blows
[1:02:06] Speaker 1: up because like organizationally, I could see them having the
[1:02:11] Speaker 1: messiest of seasons and then being absolutely terrible, partly because
[1:02:15] Speaker 1: of things like that. Ultimately, I think their mean season
[1:02:19] Speaker 1: is eight or nine wins.
[1:02:20] Speaker 2: But just to be clear, there is no chance they're
[1:02:23] Speaker 2: drafting three or five.
[1:02:25] Speaker 1: Well, that's a good point. Because they're doing everything.
[1:02:27] Speaker 2: They gave that pick away. Because they went all in
[1:02:31] Speaker 2: on Sauce Gardner because they were like, Daniel Jones, you're
[1:02:36] Speaker 2: going to do it. In one of the most reckless
[1:02:39] Speaker 2: trades in the last 10 years in the NFL, a
[1:02:43] Speaker 2: mid-season two first round pick trade when Daniel Jones was
[1:02:47] Speaker 2: not only your quarterback, but was not signed to an extension.
[1:02:50] Speaker 2: That was, and so, yeah, they need to, they need
[1:02:54] Speaker 2: to be good. Maybe you'll be right, but I just hate,
[1:02:59] Speaker 2: I know in theory people, because one of the things people,
[1:03:03] Speaker 2: when the NFL makes a big deal out of schedule release,
[1:03:07] Speaker 2: a hipster thing to say is like, guys, we've known
[1:03:10] Speaker 2: who they're playing for years, 14 of the games, and
[1:03:15] Speaker 2: we've known who they're the all 17 for months. well
[1:03:19] Speaker 2: all the order does matter like it does for a
[1:03:23] Speaker 2: team that is in my at least for me a
[1:03:26] Speaker 2: team that you could see going either way having the
[1:03:29] Speaker 2: year start that tough is so much worse than you
[1:03:34] Speaker 2: get off to a good start you're feeling good and
[1:03:36] Speaker 2: those games are spread out so that's my concern um but.
[1:03:40] Speaker 1: It's a persuasive argument it's a persuasive argument But.
[1:03:44] Speaker 2: OK, so we did everything. The only teams we did
[1:03:48] Speaker 2: not discuss were the Raiders and the Dolphins. And that
[1:03:52] Speaker 2: sounds right to me.
[1:03:54] Speaker 1: Is that true? That's wild. Yeah, I would go. I
[1:03:56] Speaker 1: would go over. I think I'm almost an auto over
[1:03:59] Speaker 1: on three and a half wins for any team. I
[1:04:01] Speaker 1: might even draft the Cardinals tomorrow. I don't think damage
[1:04:03] Speaker 1: is listening to this show. I might even draft the Cardinals.
[1:04:05] Speaker 2: That's a bold play, my friend.
[1:04:09] Speaker 1: Nick Wright. Go ahead.
[1:04:10] Speaker 2: Sorry. Yeah.
[1:04:11] Speaker 1: What's right with Nick Wright. He is an excellent podcaster.
[1:04:16] Speaker 1: Excellent on YouTube. What you're going, you're going more often
[1:04:19] Speaker 1: this season. I, you.
[1:04:20] Speaker 2: Know, I don't know. I, the maybe I think so. I,
[1:04:24] Speaker 2: when I was on vacation, I had fill in hosts.
[1:04:26] Speaker 2: So I was like, wow, this is like a real business.
[1:04:29] Speaker 2: I own the thing. So it kind of, I'm kind
[1:04:31] Speaker 2: of incentivized to do as much as possible. I, we
[1:04:34] Speaker 2: also though, if I may plug it just for a moment, um,
[1:04:38] Speaker 2: Next week will be our 500th episode. And we are,
[1:04:42] Speaker 2: I think like three, like 3,200 people on YouTube away
[1:04:47] Speaker 2: from being at a quarter of a million subscribers on YouTube. Um,
[1:04:51] Speaker 2: So if people want to subscribe on YouTube, iTunes or Spotify. And,
[1:04:55] Speaker 2: you know, I think it's a good podcast.
[1:04:57] Speaker 1: It is not.
[1:04:58] Speaker 2: I don't think it's a great podcast yet. The TV show,
[1:05:01] Speaker 2: I think, is a great TV show in the medium.
[1:05:05] Speaker 2: And I hope people check it out. And I can't
[1:05:08] Speaker 2: believe we're at football season.
[1:05:10] Speaker 1: I'm so happy that we're there. And, yeah, you took
[1:05:13] Speaker 1: the words out of my mouth. He told everyone he
[1:05:16] Speaker 1: saw in Europe he. He's a man on TV that
[1:05:18] Speaker 1: argues about sports. For my money, there's no one better
[1:05:21] Speaker 1: at doing it. Nick Wright, thank you very much. Play
[1:05:23] Speaker 1: that music, and then I'll tell you what we're coming
[1:05:27] Speaker 1: up this week. We got a lot going on. We
[1:05:28] Speaker 1: got Brett Coleman coming up on the show later this
[1:05:30] Speaker 1: week doing some making the lead picks. We have our
[1:05:32] Speaker 1: final Super Bowl predictions. That's with Patrick Claibon and Jordan Roderick.
[1:05:36] Speaker 1: But you will hear from me next with Dave Damaschek
[1:05:39] Speaker 1: doing our NFC over-unders. There's a few that I think
[1:05:42] Speaker 1: are heaters there. We'll see you then.

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