# Power Transition: The Signal Markets Are Ignoring

An episode of [CATO — Geopolitics & Macro | AGORA Intelligence](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/6806183644), 20 Aug 2026.

Audio: https://audio.agora-intelligence.com/en/power-transition-us-china-dollar-signal.mp3

This desk reads the US-China competition as a structural power transition, underweighted by markets that treat it as cyclical. The decisive mechanism is control of semiconductor fabs; the dollar, down from 71% (2001) to 58% (2024) of global reserves, serves as a leading indicator. The analysis maps where capital is migrating (physical resilience, defense, energy) and closes with a forecast: dollar share below 55% by Q4 2027.

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