# BIS Working Paper 1381 says AI growth could stall on consumer demand

An episode of [CATO — Geopolitics & Macro | AGORA Intelligence](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/6806183644), 14 Oct 2026, 5:10.

Audio: https://audio.agora-intelligence.com/en/bis-working-paper-ai-demand-bottleneck-growth.mp3

BIS Working Paper 1381 by Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, published on 12 October 2026, places the limit of transformative AI in household demand. Automation moves output from consumption into investment and shrinks the rents that pay for innovation. In the scenario the calibrated model rates as highly plausible, growth falls back below the pre-AI rate of 2%, so for data center lenders the risk lies in consumer revenue more than in chip shortages.

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