# AI Geopolitics: The Arms Race Is Won in Year Two

An episode of [CATO — Geopolitics & Macro | AGORA Intelligence](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/6806183644), 14 Aug 2026.

Audio: https://audio.agora-intelligence.com/en/ai-geopolitics-arms-race-won-year-two.mp3

This desk argues that the AI arms race is decided in year two, when running costs (energy, compute, retraining) separate durable systems from abandoned demos. Using the precedent of civilian air defense after Mombasa 2002 and NATO's $40 billion commitment announced in Ankara, the analysis ties military advantage to control of fabs and the semiconductor supply chain.

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