# Paul Murray Live | 3 May

An episode of [Paul Murray Live](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/376966263), 3 May 2026, 49 min.

Audio: https://p.podderapp.com/2544644999/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/2fb3740d-3436-44af-8cc0-a91900716aa5/be3abd48-25e5-45a6-aede-ac2a00524a12/b6fd6297-876f-409d-9923-b43f00ce63da/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=95971714-8fe6-4855-b1fe-ac2a00524a12

One Nation's poll numbers plateau, our fuel prices are set to jump again. Plus, Donald Trump withdraws US troops in Germany. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: From the sky, new setter, this is Paul Murray Live.
[0:06] Speaker 2: Well right back at you, James. Thank you very much.
[0:08] Speaker 2: I do appreciate it. Let us get into a brand
[0:10] Speaker 2: new week of Paul Murray Live.
[0:12] Speaker 1: Come on into the man Cap.
[0:13] Speaker 2: We've got a lot of work to do tonight, including
[0:15] Speaker 2: a brand new opinion poll is showing a little more
[0:17] Speaker 2: than signs of life for the Coalition. As you know,
[0:20] Speaker 2: the battle tour months ago was that the Prime Minister
[0:24] Speaker 2: Well was only preferred by about a third of the country,
[0:27] Speaker 2: but the extreme majority of preferences ended up getting them
[0:31] Speaker 2: to the point where they got ninety four seats in
[0:33] Speaker 2: the Parliament. The battle has now become a three way
[0:36] Speaker 2: battle between the Labor Party, between one Nation and the
[0:40] Speaker 2: Liberal Party. Well, our mates, red Bridge, my friend cos
[0:43] Speaker 2: Samaras he puts out a poll at the end of
[0:45] Speaker 2: each and every month. This is the one that comes
[0:47] Speaker 2: out at the end of April and thus at the
[0:49] Speaker 2: start of May. It shows that the Labour Party vote
[0:53] Speaker 2: is down a couple points from the election, but still
[0:55] Speaker 2: has the single largest amount of support amongst people at
[0:59] Speaker 2: thirty one. That's down by two, Coalition up by five.
[1:03] Speaker 2: Where does it come from? Well, theoretically it comes from
[1:06] Speaker 2: the other category, which is down to one nation that
[1:08] Speaker 2: is down to and labor that is down one. We'll
[1:11] Speaker 2: find out in the Sky News pulse, which we will
[1:13] Speaker 2: excusely reveal on Tuesday night what that picture tells us.
[1:16] Speaker 2: But again, even though one nation down by a couple
[1:19] Speaker 2: of points, still well and truly in front of where
[1:21] Speaker 2: the coalition is. But the coalition apparently has had a
[1:23] Speaker 2: good month, in part, you would imagine, because of their
[1:26] Speaker 2: ability to prosecute many of the failures of this government,
[1:29] Speaker 2: as well as inflation numbers and of course an interest
[1:33] Speaker 2: rate rise which is expected to come as early as
[1:35] Speaker 2: this week. The Greens static at thirteen percent. So how
[1:39] Speaker 2: do we end up in a scenario where there is
[1:41] Speaker 2: this giant surge a vote now more than a quarter
[1:45] Speaker 2: of all vote that goes to one nation, And how
[1:48] Speaker 2: does this not affect the Prime minister and have any
[1:51] Speaker 2: doubt about whether or not he would lose an election
[1:54] Speaker 2: if one was held well today, of course there won't
[1:57] Speaker 2: be one, because it's three years that way, and the
[1:59] Speaker 2: previous one is only one year that way. Well, because
[2:01] Speaker 2: again of preferences, now a phenomenon that has become pretty
[2:05] Speaker 2: regular now is that there is a significant portion of
[2:08] Speaker 2: Liberal voters who if the Liberal Party finished lower than
[2:12] Speaker 2: one Nation, would not preference one Nation, they would preference
[2:14] Speaker 2: the Labor Party directly. Now I've got to say I
[2:17] Speaker 2: don't understand this, because if you're somebody who doesn't support
[2:20] Speaker 2: the government currently, then you would imagine the last people
[2:23] Speaker 2: you want to remain in power is the government. But
[2:26] Speaker 2: on two party preferred it mixes in two ways.
[2:29] Speaker 1: Fifty five to.
[2:29] Speaker 2: Forty five is if one Nation got up as the
[2:32] Speaker 2: main opposition over the Liberal Party. But that would be
[2:35] Speaker 2: basically the same result that we got twelve months ago,
[2:38] Speaker 2: ninety four seats in the Federal Parliament four the Labor
[2:42] Speaker 2: Party slightly better at fifty four to forty six, but
[2:45] Speaker 2: still a commanding, easy and thumping victory, most likely in
[2:50] Speaker 2: the high eighties. So despite everything that has happened in
[2:54] Speaker 2: the past twelve months, the Labor Party still remains in
[2:56] Speaker 2: a position where they are absolutely in control of Australian
[2:59] Speaker 2: politics right now. As for preferred Prime Minister, and you know,
[3:03] Speaker 2: I'm a fan of Pauline Hansen, but she's not an option.
[3:05] Speaker 2: Why because she's not in the lower House yet. Still
[3:08] Speaker 2: twenty three percent of people would prefer Pauline Hansen to
[3:12] Speaker 2: be the prime minister. Fourteen percent of people say Angus
[3:15] Speaker 2: Taylor thirty three percent, so just a third bang on
[3:18] Speaker 2: a third. So the preferred prime minister of the country
[3:20] Speaker 2: is the one we currently have. Two thirds want somebody else.
[3:25] Speaker 2: Yet if an election was held today, Labor, because of
[3:27] Speaker 2: the preferential system, would get a result where they'd be
[3:30] Speaker 2: easily re elected and they'd still have a handsome margin. Sure,
[3:34] Speaker 2: it wouldn't end up being the ninety plus seats, it'd
[3:37] Speaker 2: be more into the late eighties. But this is the
[3:40] Speaker 2: conundrum that I feel, especially when you start to have
[3:43] Speaker 2: a look at the different ratings. Now, this is where
[3:46] Speaker 2: you take out of one hundred and you get you
[3:49] Speaker 2: take the disapproval number and what is left over with
[3:52] Speaker 2: the approval number. Well, basically fifty to fifty is how
[3:55] Speaker 2: Australians feel about Pauline Hansen. But by a country mile,
[3:58] Speaker 2: she is the one with the best rating right now
[4:02] Speaker 2: in the country. Now Angus Taylor is only a couple
[4:05] Speaker 2: of points behind, as is mat Canavan. But the Coalition
[4:08] Speaker 2: has a scenario where about a third of voters haven't
[4:11] Speaker 2: made their mind up whether they like or dislike. Now,
[4:14] Speaker 2: obviously I like Matt Canavan. We're getting to know Angus Taylor.
[4:17] Speaker 2: I like what he's doing in opposition. But when it
[4:19] Speaker 2: comes back to preferences, nothing would change the Greens voter
[4:24] Speaker 2: by keeping a relatively low profile compared to where say
[4:27] Speaker 2: Adam Bant was for all of those years, she is
[4:30] Speaker 2: basically again at fifty to fifty minus four. Anthony ALBERNIZI
[4:33] Speaker 2: has had a surge in the past month. Now where
[4:37] Speaker 2: this comes from, please someone tell me. But of course
[4:40] Speaker 2: it was because this time last month we were dealing
[4:42] Speaker 2: with the fuel crisis issues and people were aware of
[4:45] Speaker 2: the economic circumstances which were bad because of the leadership
[4:48] Speaker 2: of Anthony Abernezi. But in the past month, Donald Trump,
[4:51] Speaker 2: who has the worst of all of the political ratings in.
[4:54] Speaker 1: Australia at a negative fifty eight.
[4:56] Speaker 2: So basically six out of ten Australians have a negative
[4:59] Speaker 2: opinion about Donald Trump. The least popular person in our politics.
[5:04] Speaker 1: Is Chris Bowen. But is there any surprise there?
[5:06] Speaker 2: But again, when the Orange Man is on the scene,
[5:10] Speaker 2: it helps the Prime minister. The Prime Minister and the
[5:13] Speaker 2: Treasurer of course are doing any and everything they possibly
[5:15] Speaker 2: can to say blame Iran, which is code for blame
[5:18] Speaker 2: Trump for everything. Now, the Strata Hmuz is not Anthony
[5:22] Speaker 2: Abernezi's problem of his making. The lack of fuel supply
[5:26] Speaker 2: that we have in this country absolutely is the problems
[5:30] Speaker 2: with inflation again, which have got worse since the war.
[5:34] Speaker 1: Well they were already worse before.
[5:37] Speaker 2: Remember the one and two interest rate rises we already
[5:40] Speaker 2: had this year, and the Federal and the Reserve Bank
[5:42] Speaker 2: toit us. It had nothing to do with what had
[5:44] Speaker 2: happened in Iran. If there is about to be another
[5:47] Speaker 2: interest rate rise because of that petrol price fluctuation, well,
[5:51] Speaker 2: of course now it will all be Orange Man bad.
[5:54] Speaker 2: Now you know that I'm pro. But I'm also very
[5:59] Speaker 2: aware that the specter if Trump remains a deep, deep,
[6:02] Speaker 2: deep negative in Australia.
[6:05] Speaker 1: Now.
[6:05] Speaker 2: The current leadership of the Coalition certainly is not professing
[6:09] Speaker 2: to have any special ties or special connections when it
[6:12] Speaker 2: comes to Donald Trump. But one of the get out
[6:16] Speaker 2: of jail free cards that are constantly given to Anthony
[6:19] Speaker 2: Albernezi is the decisions that he's able to blame on
[6:22] Speaker 2: anyone else but himself. Now, the first two interest rate
[6:24] Speaker 2: rises of this year this year were of course the
[6:27] Speaker 2: responsibility of this government. But they expect that you don't
[6:31] Speaker 2: remember that, you don't pay attention that Orange man Bad
[6:34] Speaker 2: is the only thing that cares that you care about
[6:36] Speaker 2: at all. Well, interestingly, another poll which was released this weekend,
[6:42] Speaker 2: and we'll get a news poll in the next little
[6:43] Speaker 2: while as well. It tells us here about the issues
[6:46] Speaker 2: and about how Australians think that the country is headed
[6:48] Speaker 2: in the wrong direction. But if that's the case, can
[6:50] Speaker 2: somebody please keep telling me whey Every pole for the
[6:52] Speaker 2: past twelve months has said, basically, if the election happened
[6:55] Speaker 2: this year not last year, basically the same result would
[6:57] Speaker 2: take place now, which shows here than in terms of
[7:00] Speaker 2: the primary vote Red Bridge, of course they have the
[7:03] Speaker 2: number at thirty three. It's thirty two. In the fresh
[7:06] Speaker 2: Water the Libs at fourteen percent. Well know they say
[7:09] Speaker 2: twenty three percent, but remember the Freshwater people were the
[7:12] Speaker 2: same people who were telling Peter dunn't the need to
[7:13] Speaker 2: be winning twelve months ago. Paul and Hanson's vote is
[7:16] Speaker 2: actually slightly higher here at twenty five percent. I'm sure
[7:21] Speaker 2: I say sorry, my apologies. The Coalition voters at twenty
[7:24] Speaker 2: two percent. It's a point higher. Here in the freshwater pole,
[7:28] Speaker 2: it is slightly lower for one nation, the Green's basically
[7:31] Speaker 2: at the same and the other category, which is where
[7:33] Speaker 2: a lot of the movement has taken place in the
[7:35] Speaker 2: elexita while it again remains relatively static. Again, we'll learn
[7:39] Speaker 2: more about the political posturing who's up, Who's down, because
[7:42] Speaker 2: we do a fortnightly pole, which of course is done
[7:45] Speaker 2: by the good people of YouGov, who absolutely nailed the
[7:48] Speaker 2: mega result of labor towards the end of the campaign.
[7:51] Speaker 2: They are the people who do the data for us.
[7:53] Speaker 2: We report it through this sky News pulse Tuesday night
[7:57] Speaker 2: here on Paul Murray Life. We will give you the
[7:59] Speaker 2: foot details, deeper analysis, deeper data the following morning with
[8:03] Speaker 2: Tom Connell of course in first edition and the details
[8:06] Speaker 2: and the data will be available Tuesday night, with a
[8:08] Speaker 2: lot more on Wednesday morning at skynews dot com. Are
[8:11] Speaker 2: you so, what is a number one issue in the country? Well,
[8:14] Speaker 2: exactly the same as it has been last year and
[8:16] Speaker 2: the year before and the year before that. Now, a
[8:19] Speaker 2: lot of these polls sometimes can get a little bit
[8:21] Speaker 2: confusing because basically you're able to pick out of one
[8:23] Speaker 2: hundred on each issue. This basically is take one hundred
[8:27] Speaker 2: minus the forty four who say cost of living and
[8:31] Speaker 2: the standard of living biggest after that housing in accommodation. Now,
[8:37] Speaker 2: I have said for a long time that anyone who
[8:38] Speaker 2: does something serious about housing policy were they going to
[8:41] Speaker 2: be in a box seat to be able to do
[8:44] Speaker 2: well in Australian politics. Now the government would suggest that
[8:48] Speaker 2: they're fiddling around with negative gearing, despite the fact they
[8:50] Speaker 2: promised they wouldn't before the election. They will pay no
[8:52] Speaker 2: price for the broken promise because there is a significant
[8:55] Speaker 2: number of the vote that is out there that is
[8:57] Speaker 2: willing to either side again with labor or change your
[8:59] Speaker 2: mind delay. But if they do things to make it
[9:01] Speaker 2: quote unquote easier for a young person to get a house,
[9:04] Speaker 2: then it's immigration, then it's the economy, then it's crime.
[9:06] Speaker 2: Climate change is just five percent five percent, But as
[9:11] Speaker 2: I showed you in polling last week that came out
[9:13] Speaker 2: via the Turmbul Times.
[9:14] Speaker 1: But still the.
[9:15] Speaker 2: Essential organization that they use is actually pretty good at
[9:18] Speaker 2: being able to have a look at issues. Polling, basically,
[9:21] Speaker 2: sixty forty people still want the change towards renewable energy.
[9:26] Speaker 2: The forty that's left over, well, even that has a
[9:28] Speaker 2: significant amount of don't know in it. So the coalition
[9:32] Speaker 2: has made a very pitched absolute choice, and they did
[9:35] Speaker 2: so under Susan Lee's leadership under pressure from the Nationals
[9:39] Speaker 2: in the on off again coalition, which was to dump
[9:42] Speaker 2: net zero and to fully confront the renewables change. But
[9:46] Speaker 2: often what gets said about why people end up giving
[9:50] Speaker 2: their preference back to labor despite all of the form
[9:53] Speaker 2: that has made everyone's life worse, is because they somehow
[9:56] Speaker 2: meet a better threshold when it comes to the issues
[9:58] Speaker 2: in and around climate change. Now like it, don't like it,
[10:02] Speaker 2: agree or don't agree. That seems to be the relentless
[10:06] Speaker 2: thing that, regardless of the economic circumstances, regardless of the
[10:10] Speaker 2: security failures, that when push comes to shove, and certainly
[10:14] Speaker 2: for that significant number of Liberals who ironically would vote
[10:18] Speaker 2: for the Liberal Party because their position is net zero,
[10:20] Speaker 2: but they wouldn't preference one nation because their position is
[10:24] Speaker 2: net zero. This is not just an opportunity for the
[10:28] Speaker 2: teals both city and country, but it is something that
[10:30] Speaker 2: you certainly notice if you were reading any of the
[10:32] Speaker 2: analysis pieces that are around this weekend, about twelve months
[10:36] Speaker 2: on from the last election, that many of the center
[10:39] Speaker 2: left media. As Jameson Ferson would say, dearro, repeat myself.
[10:44] Speaker 2: I might to take that rhetorical trick, which is and
[10:47] Speaker 2: certainly to its traditional owner.
[10:49] Speaker 1: I appreciate it, but I'll use it from now.
[10:50] Speaker 2: On him, which is the belief that the center right
[10:54] Speaker 2: of Australian politics might be fighting amongst itself, but it
[10:57] Speaker 2: is not able to fight away from the position of
[10:59] Speaker 2: losing the last election because it hasn't come to a different.
[11:03] Speaker 1: Position when it comes to climate change.
[11:05] Speaker 2: Now you and I both know why people have the
[11:08] Speaker 2: view they do about renewables, why they have the view
[11:11] Speaker 2: they have about the arrogant way in which they are deployed,
[11:15] Speaker 2: in the arrogant way in which the federal government pretends
[11:18] Speaker 2: that this is the only option and any other option
[11:21] Speaker 2: is somehow heresy. And of course there is the central
[11:24] Speaker 2: issue that regardless of whether Australia is coal fire powered
[11:28] Speaker 2: or wind farm powered, we are still one percent of
[11:33] Speaker 2: global emissions, China at more than thirty three percent. Of course,
[11:37] Speaker 2: gets to laugh both ways, because while they pump as
[11:39] Speaker 2: much crap into the air as possible, they sell us
[11:42] Speaker 2: the solar panels that we demand are the only ways
[11:45] Speaker 2: to power ourselves, and of course the people of whom
[11:49] Speaker 2: these electorates are being filled with with the renewables, with
[11:51] Speaker 2: their own voie labor. Anyway, the next time I see
[11:55] Speaker 2: a Tiffany Teal say you know what, I'm fine with
[11:58] Speaker 2: a wind farm somewhere in my electric then you would
[12:00] Speaker 2: know that they are willing to give something up. But
[12:03] Speaker 2: of course they assume that they don't have to. They
[12:06] Speaker 2: think regional Australia is just a place to have an
[12:08] Speaker 2: AIRB and b. But again, how does this work? Where
[12:12] Speaker 2: the majority of Australian say the country is headed in
[12:14] Speaker 2: the wrong direction. It's a new poll this week. The
[12:17] Speaker 2: same numbers were around last week that I showed you
[12:19] Speaker 2: here that fifty six percent of people, when asked about
[12:23] Speaker 2: the direction of the country, they believe it's headed in
[12:25] Speaker 2: the wrong direction. Twenty nine percent say the right direction.
[12:29] Speaker 2: Who the heck are these people? Fifteen percent remain unsure?
[12:34] Speaker 2: To me, it's a fairy binary question. Do you think
[12:36] Speaker 2: the joints going in the right direction or the wrong direction?
[12:38] Speaker 2: Do you give it thumbs up or thumbs down about
[12:40] Speaker 2: how Australia works right now?
[12:42] Speaker 1: Well, how can anyone be giving thumbs up.
[12:43] Speaker 2: To a scenario where more than three million households or
[12:46] Speaker 2: run run out of food this week, where the education results,
[12:50] Speaker 2: they just keep falling down no matter what particularly takes place.
[12:54] Speaker 2: Australia's capacity to be able to have the fuels that
[12:58] Speaker 2: are needed to fly a plane or to till.
[13:02] Speaker 1: The soil well, of course we have to go begging.
[13:05] Speaker 2: To countries around the world to get them because we
[13:07] Speaker 2: couldn't possibly dig for them here because the politics has
[13:11] Speaker 2: now been very clearly established and by the way, save
[13:14] Speaker 2: me some of the voices who now say that we
[13:17] Speaker 2: need gases the technology to guarantee the system during night,
[13:22] Speaker 2: who were among some of the same people who were
[13:24] Speaker 2: telling us that you couldn't look for gas anywhere because
[13:26] Speaker 2: they were part of the shut the Gate, Unlocked the
[13:29] Speaker 2: Gate movement, remember that about ten years ago. Meantime, Interestingly,
[13:34] Speaker 2: when it comes to the fuel situation, about how Australians
[13:36] Speaker 2: feel again, this is from the Freshwater Organization. This came
[13:39] Speaker 2: out today or sorry this weekend via the reporting in
[13:43] Speaker 2: the Sunday Telegraph, the Sunday Herald, Sun, the Sunday Courier Mail, etc.
[13:48] Speaker 2: Twenty six percent fairly satisfied, six percent very satisfied, Okay,
[13:54] Speaker 2: so what thirty in a bit unsatisfied, Well close to
[13:58] Speaker 2: forty in fact, more once you put twenty eight together
[14:02] Speaker 2: with nineteen, then you're basically almost at the fifty percent line.
[14:05] Speaker 2: So again, could somebody please tell me that how this
[14:07] Speaker 2: works out that more than half the country say we're
[14:09] Speaker 2: headed in the right direction, about half the country say
[14:11] Speaker 2: they've done the wrong thing when it comes to fuel.
[14:13] Speaker 2: The most unpopular politicians in the country are Anthony Arbernezi
[14:17] Speaker 2: and Chris Bowen, Pauline Hansen, Angus Taylor, Matt Canavan basically
[14:21] Speaker 2: at fifty to fifty. Yet for some reason, if an
[14:24] Speaker 2: election was held this weekend and preferences were required, and
[14:27] Speaker 2: they are required at every election, it's not some new
[14:29] Speaker 2: system that's being put upon us. But there is a
[14:32] Speaker 2: significant number of liberals who wouldn't preference one nation as
[14:37] Speaker 2: a way of getting rid of the labor government. Because
[14:41] Speaker 2: when you turn around and you do the rough estimates
[14:43] Speaker 2: here where you take the labor number and you add
[14:45] Speaker 2: it together with the green number, well it's still well
[14:49] Speaker 2: below fifty percent.
[14:50] Speaker 1: Depending on the poll.
[14:51] Speaker 2: You can take the coalition number, put it together with
[14:54] Speaker 2: the one nation number, and it's a much higher number,
[14:57] Speaker 2: but of course the guarantee of those preferences flows, well,
[15:00] Speaker 2: it's not flowing.
[15:02] Speaker 1: We'll find out how this.
[15:03] Speaker 2: All happens when it comes to the Farah by election,
[15:06] Speaker 2: will of course be Infhara on Tuesday night.
[15:09] Speaker 1: But speaking of fuel and petrol.
[15:10] Speaker 2: Let us discuss this particular situation, which is, as we know,
[15:14] Speaker 2: the fuel situation. Well, we've got to win eventually out
[15:16] Speaker 2: of the government. But remember they made us kick and
[15:18] Speaker 2: scream and demand weeks after the Strait of Humus was closed.
[15:25] Speaker 2: But the federal government that takes fifty two cents in
[15:29] Speaker 2: every single lita, every single lita of petrol, fifty two
[15:33] Speaker 2: cents of it is taken by tax, well they cut
[15:36] Speaker 2: that in half. Hallelujah, and thank you so much for
[15:39] Speaker 2: twenty six cents. Well, the tourism operators, they want to
[15:42] Speaker 2: make this a little more permanent because of course the
[15:46] Speaker 2: decision on the reduction of fuel tax is well, it
[15:49] Speaker 2: only lasts until June, so as the June school holidays
[15:53] Speaker 2: roll on, and obviously the Straight of Humors will be
[15:56] Speaker 2: remaining closed for some time. And even if it was
[15:57] Speaker 2: open tomorrow, guess what would happen. It's still of our
[16:00] Speaker 2: problems with fuel, So why don't they extend it for
[16:03] Speaker 2: another few months, Why don't they get rid of it
[16:06] Speaker 2: all completely? Well, of course they'll be saying that this
[16:09] Speaker 2: is drong go economics. Remember that that was written in
[16:11] Speaker 2: the Channel iin newspapers, the economic theory of drong goo economics.
[16:15] Speaker 2: God forbid that the government. This is already running a
[16:18] Speaker 2: multi billion dollar deficit, not just this year, not just
[16:21] Speaker 2: for the next five, not just for the next ten,
[16:23] Speaker 2: but as they've shown you how many times, for the.
[16:25] Speaker 1: Next forty years.
[16:28] Speaker 2: In this next financial year, we will finally get past
[16:30] Speaker 2: that one trillion dollars in debt that we owe the
[16:33] Speaker 2: rest of the world twenty years to the year where,
[16:37] Speaker 2: of course we didn't have any money that we owed
[16:40] Speaker 2: the rest of the world. Well, obviously the fuel tax
[16:44] Speaker 2: is something that I find immoral when the prices are
[16:46] Speaker 2: so high. And again, tourism operators they want a little
[16:50] Speaker 2: more certainty out of all of this. They want the
[16:52] Speaker 2: extension at the very least of the twenty six cent reduction,
[16:55] Speaker 2: or maybe go the whole hog and say, you know what,
[16:57] Speaker 2: until times get better, fifty two cents, let's take that
[17:00] Speaker 2: off the price of every leader of petrol. I find
[17:02] Speaker 2: excise taxation a disgrace. Another example of it. Remember more
[17:06] Speaker 2: than sixty percent of a bottle of rum, that's tax.
[17:09] Speaker 2: Don't even get me started about tobacco. But that argument
[17:12] Speaker 2: has been well and truly one, but it's one that
[17:14] Speaker 2: they just ignore.
[17:16] Speaker 1: Meantime, get ready.
[17:17] Speaker 2: For whatever the prices are that are happening right now,
[17:20] Speaker 2: to get a lot higher.
[17:21] Speaker 1: Now.
[17:21] Speaker 2: Things have got better in the past couple of weeks,
[17:23] Speaker 2: but the expectation is because of global oil prices, it's
[17:25] Speaker 2: about to cost more. Why on Friday, regional oil benchmark
[17:30] Speaker 2: Tapis crude was trading at one hundred and twenty five
[17:32] Speaker 2: or one hundred and seventy four dollars a barrel. That's
[17:34] Speaker 2: the highest since the global energy crisis was sparked by
[17:38] Speaker 2: the war in Ukraine back in twenty twenty two. So
[17:40] Speaker 2: we're way past what was happening in Iran, almost double
[17:46] Speaker 2: the sixty five dollars price point which underpinned the government's
[17:50] Speaker 2: midyear budget update. Meaning, of course, all the numbers that
[17:53] Speaker 2: they got wrong in May, they turned around and got
[17:55] Speaker 2: wrong in December, and they'll get wrong again this May.
[17:58] Speaker 2: It will stand around and star. How the budget is
[18:00] Speaker 2: if it was sort of Moses coming down with the
[18:03] Speaker 2: ten rules we will have to follow. But alas such
[18:06] Speaker 2: is the political game that is often played. This is
[18:08] Speaker 2: a political moment, not an economic document. While price has
[18:11] Speaker 2: dropped slightly on overseas markets overnight, international oil bosses are
[18:14] Speaker 2: sound in the alarm as stockpiles start to run down.
[18:19] Speaker 1: And speaking of running, see what I did.
[18:20] Speaker 2: There, let us talk about the Phara by election again,
[18:23] Speaker 2: Parah by election by this time next week, run and done.
[18:26] Speaker 2: Tomorrow night, I will show you just about how many
[18:28] Speaker 2: people have voted early and how that compares to the
[18:31] Speaker 2: election twelve months ago. As you know, it is a
[18:35] Speaker 2: multiple way race between the LIB, between the Community Independent
[18:38] Speaker 2: otherwise known as the Teal, the National Party and One Nation.
[18:42] Speaker 2: One nation according to the betting markets, going to win
[18:44] Speaker 2: this seat. We'll find out together. And a reminder Tuesday night,
[18:49] Speaker 2: Tuesday night, the Pharaoh pub test is going to be
[18:52] Speaker 2: in Aubrey. I can't wait for this. We'll start the
[18:54] Speaker 2: show with the Sky News Pulse. Then we'll get straight
[18:57] Speaker 2: into all of the candidates. And it's not about me,
[18:59] Speaker 2: It's about the people in the r The people in
[19:00] Speaker 2: the room are the people who watch this show. We're
[19:04] Speaker 2: looking forward to all of that experience. Please join us,
[19:06] Speaker 2: must see stuff. I don't care if there's other footy
[19:09] Speaker 2: on it an't care.
[19:09] Speaker 1: This this is the show you got to watch this week. Okay.
[19:12] Speaker 1: Tuesday night, Paul Murray live from Aubrey.
[19:16] Speaker 2: Well about the chances of One Nation and how it
[19:19] Speaker 2: is looking with less than a week to go. Barnaby
[19:21] Speaker 2: Joyce was with Andrew Clenell this morning.
[19:24] Speaker 1: You're expecting One Nation to win Parar this weekend. Yes,
[19:28] Speaker 1: I do. In a tie race.
[19:29] Speaker 3: I think it's going to be between I don't think
[19:31] Speaker 3: it's going to be between One Nation on the conservative
[19:34] Speaker 3: side and a climate two hundred candidate because I teal
[19:37] Speaker 3: candidate on the other.
[19:38] Speaker 1: Which makes it a.
[19:39] Speaker 3: Fascinating competition because it's between the true right and the
[19:42] Speaker 3: true left.
[19:43] Speaker 2: Now we won't be able to tell with ease by
[19:46] Speaker 2: this time next week. But again that question about liberal
[19:49] Speaker 2: party preferences, Now there was a view a little bit
[19:52] Speaker 2: earlier in this campaign, and I think that's what the
[19:54] Speaker 2: bookies we're playing into, was that there was a significant
[19:57] Speaker 2: number of Libs who wouldn't preference One Nation. But after
[20:00] Speaker 2: the Libs have said you've got on the how to
[20:02] Speaker 2: votes preference one nation, one nation's preferencing.
[20:05] Speaker 1: The Libs and the Nats.
[20:06] Speaker 2: Essentially that car Dre should be able to keep the
[20:09] Speaker 2: community independent. The teal out the til by the way
[20:14] Speaker 2: will be as part of our pub tests, and I
[20:17] Speaker 2: know that there are plenty of people telling her not
[20:19] Speaker 2: to turn up.
[20:20] Speaker 1: I'm pleased that she will be.
[20:21] Speaker 2: Michelle Millthorpe will be in the room taking the questions
[20:23] Speaker 2: and again if things get a little silly, I'll step
[20:25] Speaker 2: in because it's an opportunity again for the people who
[20:27] Speaker 2: are voting to be able to ask the questions, for
[20:30] Speaker 2: the candidates be able to make.
[20:32] Speaker 1: Their own case. You'll see it around the country. I'm
[20:34] Speaker 1: looking forward to this.
[20:35] Speaker 2: But if they are able to win their first lower
[20:38] Speaker 2: House seat, well it's a watermark. If we're talking about
[20:41] Speaker 2: poles where one nation is sitting at about a quarter
[20:44] Speaker 2: of the vote, that means logically there would end up
[20:46] Speaker 2: being add an election in two years time, a whole
[20:49] Speaker 2: collection of one nation Lower House MPs. Now, part of
[20:53] Speaker 2: the problem in the past with one nation has been
[20:55] Speaker 2: when people have all turned up they're all first term MPs.
[20:58] Speaker 2: Well Bunnaby Joyce being on one Nation MP right now,
[21:01] Speaker 2: but of course he'd moved from the Nats. Well, would
[21:04] Speaker 2: he go up to the Senate where he's guaranteed six
[21:07] Speaker 2: years in the parliament, or would he remain in the
[21:10] Speaker 2: lower House and contest the seat of New England. You've
[21:12] Speaker 2: heard it by now, but there's a chance that is
[21:14] Speaker 2: what's going to happen.
[21:17] Speaker 3: It looks Andrew like we're going to get a large,
[21:20] Speaker 3: reasonable number of House Representative seats, and of course the
[21:24] Speaker 3: party which I'm a part of, will no doubt make
[21:27] Speaker 3: the request that I stand for New England because we
[21:29] Speaker 3: have to have some oversight and some process that to
[21:33] Speaker 3: make sure we look like a professional, diligient outfit in
[21:36] Speaker 3: the House Representatives, because otherwise they're just going to arrange
[21:39] Speaker 3: you people who've never been there before, and it's not therefore,
[21:42] Speaker 3: it's just that's a tenuous approach. If that is not
[21:46] Speaker 3: the case, then we continue with Plan A, which is stand.
[21:49] Speaker 2: For the Senate, because you see, this is what's really
[21:52] Speaker 2: fascinating about one nation is that if one nation is
[21:55] Speaker 2: running about a quarter of the vote in certain seats,
[21:58] Speaker 2: they're going to be running with three in fron of it.
[22:00] Speaker 2: In some particular seats, I might be running with a
[22:02] Speaker 2: four in front of it. The reality is though, that
[22:04] Speaker 2: if you have a bunch of first two MPs in
[22:06] Speaker 2: the lower House, they are slowly but surely going to
[22:08] Speaker 2: be picked off from one nation. Why because the power
[22:12] Speaker 2: of the cross bench is one thing, the lure of
[22:14] Speaker 2: the media to try to form some sort of a
[22:17] Speaker 2: division between the lower house MPs and the upper house
[22:20] Speaker 2: leadership of the party. Someone like a Barnaby Joyce would
[22:24] Speaker 2: be absolutely perfect at being able to not just tell
[22:27] Speaker 2: them where the photocopiers are, but also to see the
[22:30] Speaker 2: wolves coming trying to pick off these MPs. I hope
[22:34] Speaker 2: Barnaby Joyce, in whichever fashion he chooses, remains in Australian
[22:39] Speaker 2: politics for a long period of time. If that is
[22:41] Speaker 2: through the people of New England, I'd imagine he'd win
[22:44] Speaker 2: the seat. If it's in the Senate, he'd definitely win
[22:46] Speaker 2: a seat because of that statewide vote right now, but
[22:49] Speaker 2: all of it fascinating, But again, decisions don't have to
[22:51] Speaker 2: be made now where a couple of ways a couple
[22:53] Speaker 2: of years away from election. But not in Victoria, of course.
[22:57] Speaker 2: In Victoria the Liberal Party was able to hold onto
[23:00] Speaker 2: one of its own, the seat of Napean. Now they're
[23:03] Speaker 2: almost gifted the chance to be able to win this
[23:05] Speaker 2: seat because Labor didn't run, meaning the only left wing
[23:08] Speaker 2: opponents in there got about thirty percent of the vote
[23:11] Speaker 2: because it was unsurprisingly a former member of the ABC
[23:14] Speaker 2: who was running certainly as an absolute independent I'm not
[23:17] Speaker 2: part of the Utifity toal campaign, okay, and the Greens
[23:23] Speaker 2: One Nation was able to get a quarter of the vote.
[23:26] Speaker 1: The Libs were able to just about forty percent.
[23:28] Speaker 2: They were able to hold onto the seat, but a
[23:30] Speaker 2: quarter of the vote disappearing in a seat where previously
[23:33] Speaker 2: it was not safe but it was safe ish means
[23:35] Speaker 2: it to be a worry now. Of course they have
[23:37] Speaker 2: to not just hold onto seats like this, They need
[23:39] Speaker 2: to win sixteen more for it to be able to
[23:42] Speaker 2: change the government come November. So this is what Jess Wilson,
[23:45] Speaker 2: the Liberal leader, Alternative Premier and fingers Crossed the next
[23:48] Speaker 2: leader of Victoria, had to say today about the result.
[23:52] Speaker 4: We know that we have lessons to learn from last
[23:55] Speaker 4: nine's results. We know we have more to do every
[23:58] Speaker 4: day between now and the election to earn the trust
[24:01] Speaker 4: of Victorians.
[24:03] Speaker 2: Yes, all right, this is what's always said at these
[24:04] Speaker 2: particular times. Anyway regarding one nation and about how they
[24:08] Speaker 2: responded to getting a quarter of the vote is.
[24:11] Speaker 5: To give to the Liberal Party for the practive down.
[24:16] Speaker 5: The Liberal Party leaders are like mappies. You have to
[24:19] Speaker 5: change them regularly for the same reason.
[24:21] Speaker 3: There's more tools there in Blue than there isn't the
[24:23] Speaker 3: funding's warehouse.
[24:26] Speaker 2: I love it all right, I haven't done this for
[24:28] Speaker 2: a while, so let's get straight back to it. You
[24:31] Speaker 2: work hard, you paid tax, That tax goes to MPs,
[24:35] Speaker 2: and more importantly, the staffers who you pay to make
[24:38] Speaker 2: crap social media videos of them show this for ugly people,
[24:41] Speaker 2: of course, is what politics can often be referred to.
[24:44] Speaker 2: Here are some examples of the absolute garbage that gets
[24:47] Speaker 2: served up while you are working. These are the videos
[24:51] Speaker 2: that they spend money making about themselves. First the Green
[24:55] Speaker 2: David Shubridge.
[24:57] Speaker 6: I was just pulled over by police on my way
[24:59] Speaker 6: into ARTI grass An.
[25:01] Speaker 7: We have a test to doing today as a road
[25:03] Speaker 7: drug testing one of these before.
[25:05] Speaker 6: Yeah, every time I come to NIM and see all
[25:09] Speaker 6: the waste of public resources and wasting your time and
[25:12] Speaker 6: waste the public money, and see it all the time.
[25:18] Speaker 7: Canvas cocaine and affirm used recently.
[25:22] Speaker 6: So to be quite frank, if I had, I wouldn't
[25:24] Speaker 6: tell you, but I haven't.
[25:26] Speaker 7: All you need to do is generate some slive in
[25:28] Speaker 7: your mouth, says sortment tabs on your song, cowards the
[25:31] Speaker 7: back pressed down, dragged to the front, and head it.
[25:32] Speaker 1: Back to me.
[25:34] Speaker 7: I'll come back and chan yeah, just that last one there.
[25:37] Speaker 7: That way if produce some anyone else has sense of
[25:39] Speaker 7: irony the nice time. Okay, cool.
[25:44] Speaker 2: Now if a sovereign citizen had done that, could you
[25:47] Speaker 2: imagine the outrage.
[25:48] Speaker 1: This is an elected member of the Federal Parliament.
[25:52] Speaker 2: Now I go every time nimb And of course, now
[25:54] Speaker 2: Nimben wants much more liberal drug laws than anyone's got.
[25:58] Speaker 2: People can advocate for that, but that's the law of
[26:02] Speaker 2: the land. It's not optional about whether it is policed
[26:04] Speaker 2: or not. That is the lesson being sent by the
[26:08] Speaker 2: Greens about how you can speak to police.
[26:11] Speaker 1: He's another one from the Greens.
[26:15] Speaker 8: Oh thanks. It's literally impossible to earn a billion dollars.
[26:21] Speaker 8: Unlike you and me, the richest people in Australia don't
[26:24] Speaker 8: earn their money by working. The top one percent get
[26:28] Speaker 8: rich through passive income or as I like to call
[26:30] Speaker 8: it unearned income. Maybe they inherited wealth, or maybe they
[26:34] Speaker 8: leveraged a property portfolio to buy more homes. Maybe they
[26:38] Speaker 8: own a big bank or a mining company. So when
[26:40] Speaker 8: the Greens say tax the one percent, we're not trying
[26:42] Speaker 8: to tax hard work. We're taxing unearned wealth.
[26:47] Speaker 1: Okay.
[26:47] Speaker 2: Firstly, what about the number of edits in that, which
[26:49] Speaker 2: means it must have been an absolute punished?
[26:51] Speaker 1: Who have recorded that? All right? And how many times
[26:53] Speaker 1: she was talking? Secondly, who was the individual owner of
[26:56] Speaker 1: a bank? They're all listed on the stock exchange and
[27:00] Speaker 1: it's often superannuation funds.
[27:02] Speaker 2: Who of course have blue chip stocks, including perhaps potentially
[27:06] Speaker 2: maybe people who even vote green. But anyway, last one
[27:08] Speaker 2: here the Labour senator who loves Instagram.
[27:10] Speaker 1: Were almost too much.
[27:13] Speaker 5: It feels so scary at.
[27:17] Speaker 3: The chief you love me, love skill.
[27:22] Speaker 2: Oh so glad about going to work tomorrow to pay
[27:24] Speaker 2: for all of that quick break back with more, plenty
[27:25] Speaker 2: more to discuss here, No sooks, no lefties, tonight, just
[27:28] Speaker 2: the way it should be on a Sunday night, Just
[27:30] Speaker 2: the way.
[27:30] Speaker 1: You like it. More on a secre on formorray Life.
[27:37] Speaker 1: Happy birthad of my mate Napfa who I know is
[27:39] Speaker 1: sitting around with.
[27:40] Speaker 2: A bunch of very good blokes watching us this evening.
[27:42] Speaker 2: Hopefully you've had a wonderful weekend as well.
[27:43] Speaker 1: No sooks, no lefties. Is my gift to you and.
[27:46] Speaker 2: Everyone else is watching right now to do so. The
[27:48] Speaker 2: wonderful Lee Hanson been It felt like forever since I've
[27:51] Speaker 2: spoken to him. But there she is kicking ass for
[27:53] Speaker 2: one nation doing so in Hobart, Daniel Wilde doing the
[27:56] Speaker 2: same for the IPA in Adelaide. Love to see you both,
[28:00] Speaker 2: So let us talk about what is a grim moment here,
[28:03] Speaker 2: which is a reminder about how big Albow won twelve
[28:07] Speaker 2: months ago and all of the interviews a third into
[28:10] Speaker 2: his second term, where already he is being served up
[28:13] Speaker 2: the opportunity of looking forward to a third term in office.
[28:17] Speaker 2: Now he's sitting pretty in the pole. So I explained
[28:19] Speaker 2: before that regardless of all the things they do, including
[28:23] Speaker 2: two interest rate rises, life getting tougher, the preference game
[28:27] Speaker 2: means that they remain basically exactly where they were twelve
[28:29] Speaker 2: months ago.
[28:30] Speaker 1: Lee, How does this work?
[28:31] Speaker 2: There has been, of course, a massive upheaval on the
[28:33] Speaker 2: center right of Australian politics. There is a giant reorganizing
[28:37] Speaker 2: that is happening about whom may end up as the opposition.
[28:40] Speaker 2: But the reality is until some of the paint comes
[28:42] Speaker 2: off the current mob, they're already measuring the curtains for
[28:44] Speaker 2: term three.
[28:48] Speaker 4: Unfortunately, Paul, it just demonstrates to you that we have
[28:51] Speaker 4: a lot of work to do and we can't take
[28:53] Speaker 4: our eye off the ball. What people what really amazes
[28:56] Speaker 4: me was it the freshwater pole that said, was it
[28:58] Speaker 4: fifty four percent think the cut trees heading in the
[29:00] Speaker 4: wrong direction, which I agree and surprised it's not one
[29:03] Speaker 4: hundred percent, to be honest, But then you've got at
[29:06] Speaker 4: this current rate, labour's going to get back in an
[29:08] Speaker 4: Anthony's just you know, account in the chickens. Basically, people
[29:12] Speaker 4: need to realize if they this country isn't a world
[29:16] Speaker 4: of pain and we're in a world of trouble. If
[29:18] Speaker 4: people think it's tough now, if labor government gets back in,
[29:21] Speaker 4: it is only going to get harder. We will have
[29:25] Speaker 4: more taxes, cost of living will increase, housing supply will
[29:29] Speaker 4: diminish even further, Immigration will rise and will have compounding
[29:34] Speaker 4: issue upon issue. People need to realize that unless they
[29:38] Speaker 4: vote differently, things will not change. If you want to
[29:42] Speaker 4: get the Labor government out of current state of play,
[29:45] Speaker 4: you have to work together with the right and you
[29:48] Speaker 4: have to use your preferences wisely put Labor and Greens last.
[29:52] Speaker 5: It's simple as that.
[29:53] Speaker 4: So we've got a lot of work to do and
[29:55] Speaker 4: we have to work together us on the right side
[29:57] Speaker 4: of politics, as they say, the Conservatives, and this is
[30:00] Speaker 4: where the change needs to happen.
[30:02] Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Daniel, this a very long chat about
[30:05] Speaker 2: what happened to him months ago, and there's an even
[30:07] Speaker 2: longer chat about what happens two years down the track.
[30:10] Speaker 2: But the reality being that even after two interest rate rises,
[30:13] Speaker 2: all the screw ups when it came to BONDI, all
[30:15] Speaker 2: the screw ups that have come when it comes to
[30:16] Speaker 2: Isis Brides, all the screw ups when it comes to.
[30:19] Speaker 1: Cost of living.
[30:20] Speaker 2: If the needle doesn't really move, then the Prime Minister
[30:23] Speaker 2: is already looking down the barrel and openly talking about
[30:26] Speaker 2: I want to go around again.
[30:30] Speaker 9: Well, that's right, and I think there's a couple of
[30:32] Speaker 9: things here. I mean, obviously, what we're seeing, as you
[30:34] Speaker 9: alluded to, is a bit of an inverse of what
[30:36] Speaker 9: happened in the nineteen sixties when Labor had the split
[30:39] Speaker 9: with the Democratic Labor Party basically played a key role
[30:43] Speaker 9: in keeping MENSI is in power for a long time.
[30:45] Speaker 9: Now it's different what's happening now, But whenever there's a
[30:47] Speaker 9: split in the other side of politics, that's always going
[30:50] Speaker 9: to help your opponents, obviously. But I think there's another
[30:53] Speaker 9: thing here, and Lee sort of refer to this when
[30:55] Speaker 9: you've got this almost sort of oxymoron if people think
[30:59] Speaker 9: the country is going in the wrong direction, but if
[31:01] Speaker 9: an election we're held today, they'd keep the government that's
[31:03] Speaker 9: currently there for another three years. And I think what
[31:06] Speaker 9: that points to is an increasing number of people just
[31:10] Speaker 9: have checked out of the political system. They really don't
[31:13] Speaker 9: think that anything fundamental is going to be fixed no
[31:15] Speaker 9: matter who's in government at the moment, because there's a
[31:19] Speaker 9: general disenchantment with the political establishment. Now it's going to
[31:24] Speaker 9: depend upon how one nation goes over the next few months,
[31:27] Speaker 9: whether the coalition gets its vote up even further. But
[31:29] Speaker 9: as things currently stand, I think people look at the
[31:31] Speaker 9: political system and they say, well, look, does it really
[31:33] Speaker 9: matter who I vote for?
[31:35] Speaker 1: Not much is changing.
[31:37] Speaker 2: I mean very important to note in all of these polls, right,
[31:40] Speaker 2: and whether they are as high as they have been
[31:42] Speaker 2: or whether they are a little bit lower as things
[31:45] Speaker 2: start to change in terms of one nationally, is that
[31:47] Speaker 2: the future looks incredibly bright for one nation in the
[31:50] Speaker 2: Upper House, right, I mean, if it's basically fourteen percent
[31:52] Speaker 2: of the vote to get a senator, if you're sitting
[31:55] Speaker 2: close to thirty, well you don't want to count your
[31:57] Speaker 2: chickens before the hatch. But that of course means an
[31:59] Speaker 2: awful lot more senators will be joining, and hopefully yourself joining,
[32:04] Speaker 2: Pauline and the rest of them in that upper House.
[32:07] Speaker 2: But the question is, and power in Australia is all
[32:09] Speaker 2: about the lower House. So again that question goes back
[32:13] Speaker 2: to that issue of preferences that we've discussed before. We'll
[32:16] Speaker 2: find out when it comes to Farah. But what does
[32:19] Speaker 2: it say that say about a third of Liberals who
[32:22] Speaker 2: obviously with their first vote vote to change the government,
[32:26] Speaker 2: would preference the government to avoid one nation becoming the
[32:30] Speaker 2: representative of the center right in Australian politics.
[32:37] Speaker 4: It doesn't make sense to me, paul It really doesn't.
[32:41] Speaker 4: As I said before, if we want change, we've got
[32:44] Speaker 4: to remove what we think we're being told about one nation.
[32:48] Speaker 4: I do think a lot of these smear campaigns that
[32:50] Speaker 4: are going on now probably have a bit of part
[32:52] Speaker 4: to do with it, but equally a huge proportion of
[32:55] Speaker 4: the population.
[32:55] Speaker 5: Are over it.
[32:56] Speaker 4: It's dirty tactics and people have had enough and they're
[32:59] Speaker 4: starting to see through it. But we need to stay
[33:02] Speaker 4: focused and we need to educate others. You know, one
[33:05] Speaker 4: nation has openly said that we will have supplying confidence
[33:09] Speaker 4: with the coalition, absolutely, because our focus is getting rid
[33:12] Speaker 4: of the Labor government. But the question I ask is
[33:16] Speaker 4: will the Liberal Party or the coalition equally return that.
[33:20] Speaker 4: Will they offer supplying confidence with us as one nation?
[33:24] Speaker 4: And that is where we're going to make the difference,
[33:26] Speaker 4: And that's the conversation I challenge you to start having
[33:30] Speaker 4: with the coalition.
[33:31] Speaker 1: Well, I gladly do so. Gladly do so. Challenge accepted,
[33:35] Speaker 1: my friend.
[33:36] Speaker 2: Now let's talk about part of the I spent a
[33:39] Speaker 2: lot of time last week on this, and I gladly
[33:41] Speaker 2: will lead up to the budget because the joy of
[33:43] Speaker 2: being here as long as I have is that I've
[33:45] Speaker 2: seen them come and I've seen them go right. And
[33:47] Speaker 2: one thing that the Left is always phenomenally good at
[33:49] Speaker 2: is being able to change language right. So of course
[33:53] Speaker 2: what we all understand to be equality is now being
[33:56] Speaker 2: replaced with equity, and the interpretation of equity is either
[34:01] Speaker 2: helping people to all have the same starting point or,
[34:05] Speaker 2: as Kamala Harris put it, for everyone to end up
[34:07] Speaker 2: in the same place. A gateway word there, I say
[34:10] Speaker 2: to things that the average Australian I would have thought,
[34:13] Speaker 2: would have not accepted. But this word of equity is
[34:16] Speaker 2: being used pretty aggressively by the government to justify negative
[34:20] Speaker 2: gearing changes that they denied they were put in place
[34:23] Speaker 2: twolve months ago, not to mention the capital gains tax
[34:27] Speaker 2: changes and the rest of it. Now they will say
[34:30] Speaker 2: that this is basically a retread of the Stage three
[34:32] Speaker 2: tax cuts, that yes, we changed our mind, but because
[34:35] Speaker 2: we were robbing Peter to pay Paul, well, then everything
[34:37] Speaker 2: was okay. But Daniel, let's talk about the heavy lifting
[34:41] Speaker 2: and the pressure that is existing right now about intergenerational warfare,
[34:46] Speaker 2: because I'm sorry, I don't think boomers stole money from anyone.
[34:49] Speaker 2: You know, as a gen xer, Mom and dad were
[34:53] Speaker 2: them and they worked their ass off to get it right.
[34:57] Speaker 9: Yeah, I agree with you and the idea that taking
[34:59] Speaker 9: money from a seventy five year old and giving it
[35:01] Speaker 9: to a twenty five year old is somehow going to
[35:03] Speaker 9: fix all the problems is not true. But there is
[35:06] Speaker 9: an issue here, which is that if you are a
[35:08] Speaker 9: twenty five year old, you've got a lot of pretty
[35:11] Speaker 9: good reasons to feel a bit aggrieved at the current
[35:13] Speaker 9: set of circumstances. You've gone through an education system that's
[35:16] Speaker 9: pretty broken and corrupt. You know, you're paying a lot
[35:19] Speaker 9: of money to get a bad outcome. You get out
[35:21] Speaker 9: of university with a degree, maybe you get seven or
[35:24] Speaker 9: eighty grand a year, which is not going to do
[35:27] Speaker 9: very much to get you in a home. You're competing
[35:28] Speaker 9: against a whole bunch of migrants for jobs, low paid,
[35:32] Speaker 9: low skilled jobs, and then the political system so far
[35:37] Speaker 9: has not really succeeded in responding to that. So I
[35:40] Speaker 9: suspect what labor is tapping into here is something that
[35:43] Speaker 9: is real and that exists in an understandable way with
[35:46] Speaker 9: the younger cohort, who we know are losing confidence in
[35:49] Speaker 9: our democratic institutions. But of course, as I say, simply
[35:52] Speaker 9: redistributing money isn't going to fix the problem. But I
[35:55] Speaker 9: will tell you, if it's the only offer on the table,
[35:58] Speaker 9: it's the offer that will be accepted. And this is
[36:00] Speaker 9: why we've been talking so much to the center right.
[36:03] Speaker 9: And you know, I've done the best they can with
[36:04] Speaker 9: Liberal Party, trying to alert them to this reality of
[36:08] Speaker 9: the younger cohort. But you know, unfortunately, I think this
[36:11] Speaker 9: politics can be successful, which is going to be to
[36:13] Speaker 9: the detriment of our nation.
[36:15] Speaker 2: Well and again, Lee, this is part of the challenge
[36:17] Speaker 2: for everyone in the game, right, But again it's this
[36:21] Speaker 2: idea and the Labor Party is going to say that,
[36:26] Speaker 2: oh one nation that with the beard on Sky News
[36:30] Speaker 2: always bang on about immigrations. The problem We'll hang on
[36:32] Speaker 2: the reverse which is coming out of The Guardian, the
[36:35] Speaker 2: nine News, the ABC, which is constantly.
[36:38] Speaker 1: Boomers, boomers, boomers, boomers, boomers.
[36:41] Speaker 2: Well, it's essentially a version of what they claim to
[36:45] Speaker 2: be the same playbook. But I've got to say, I
[36:47] Speaker 2: think it's pretty destructive here that you've turned around people
[36:50] Speaker 2: like our parents, and all three of us are gen
[36:52] Speaker 2: X's right, they worked their ass off, they saved, they
[36:55] Speaker 2: took care of their parents. Well guess what, Exactly the
[36:59] Speaker 2: same will be the case for X and exactly the
[37:01] Speaker 2: same way the case for millennial and exactly the same
[37:03] Speaker 2: place will eventually end up being for zoomers. You don't
[37:05] Speaker 2: get it all at the start, that's the point, because
[37:09] Speaker 2: we've also got to play financial couplunk to pay for
[37:12] Speaker 2: an age care system that basically leaves you with four
[37:16] Speaker 2: fifths of bugger all, regardless of how many investment properties
[37:19] Speaker 2: you've got.
[37:22] Speaker 4: So we were told we were brought up our generation,
[37:24] Speaker 4: you work hard, you save your money, you make smart decisions,
[37:29] Speaker 4: and that's how you get in head in life. Instead,
[37:31] Speaker 4: now the younger generations, which I totally get and I
[37:34] Speaker 4: agree with you, Dan, it is harder. I feel sorry
[37:38] Speaker 4: for the younger generations. You know, prices properties are increasing,
[37:41] Speaker 4: Rents are astronomical. Even alone in Hobart. The rental price
[37:45] Speaker 4: here is out price Melbourne. Now you know my kids
[37:49] Speaker 4: are never going to own their own home. So it
[37:51] Speaker 4: is hard, and yes, there is an offer on the table,
[37:54] Speaker 4: but I ask please try to unpack it and try
[37:58] Speaker 4: to understand this because taxing or increasing taxes to those
[38:03] Speaker 4: that have saved and try to get it good in
[38:05] Speaker 4: the head in their life is not going to make
[38:08] Speaker 4: it better for you. If you increase taxes, at the
[38:11] Speaker 4: end of the day, it will increase rental prices. People
[38:15] Speaker 4: will exit out of their housing. People won't invest in
[38:18] Speaker 4: buying in building new houses. So what does that mean
[38:21] Speaker 4: at the end of the day. It is smoke and mirrors.
[38:24] Speaker 4: It's a vote buying exercise, and it's a sugar hit
[38:27] Speaker 4: because long term, you'll have less rental properties, you will
[38:31] Speaker 4: have increased rents, you'll have more rate increases. It will
[38:35] Speaker 4: have the absolute opposite effect of what you're being sold.
[38:38] Speaker 4: And we need the younger generations to understand that. But
[38:42] Speaker 4: equally so, we need to help them understand what the
[38:46] Speaker 4: real root causes are and how we're going to fix that.
[38:49] Speaker 4: And that is new development, that is building more houses,
[38:53] Speaker 4: that is reducing the supply through the amount of people
[38:56] Speaker 4: coming into this country for the time being, until we
[38:58] Speaker 4: have enough houses, we have the right level of infrastructure,
[39:02] Speaker 4: and we need to cut the government spending because that
[39:05] Speaker 4: is what is increasing rate increases and mortgages, and that's
[39:11] Speaker 4: increasing the cost of living as well.
[39:13] Speaker 5: Absolutely, so we've got a bit of work to do.
[39:14] Speaker 2: Paul, Now I'm with you, all right, Daniel Nursook's no lefties.
[39:17] Speaker 2: Let's finish it off here.
[39:18] Speaker 1: With a Bowld prediction for the week ahead.
[39:20] Speaker 2: Daniel Wild, what is definitely happening in the next seven days.
[39:24] Speaker 9: Well, I know that Lee loves my opining on the footy,
[39:27] Speaker 9: and I am a bit up and about today because
[39:29] Speaker 9: the Crow's got up by.
[39:30] Speaker 1: Point against Port.
[39:32] Speaker 9: So I am going to make a footy prediction, which is,
[39:35] Speaker 9: as much as I deride the wo KFL, I think
[39:38] Speaker 9: they are going to bring back the state of Origin
[39:41] Speaker 9: this week. I think they're going to announce the gather
[39:43] Speaker 9: around is going to stay in Adelaide, and I reckon
[39:45] Speaker 9: they're going to announce state of origins coming back, and
[39:47] Speaker 9: that is if they do that, that is probably the
[39:49] Speaker 9: one good decision they've made in probably two decades, and
[39:52] Speaker 9: I'll definitely be getting around that.
[39:53] Speaker 1: All right.
[39:54] Speaker 2: Well, another opportunity for another Welcome to Country ceremony or
[39:56] Speaker 2: maybe three or a best of seven series? Are you
[39:58] Speaker 2: somehow they'll find a to work this one here?
[40:01] Speaker 7: All right?
[40:02] Speaker 1: Lee Hanson, are your bold prediction for the next week?
[40:05] Speaker 4: Well, before I get I'm going to make a little
[40:08] Speaker 4: one at the start there. Dan, my eldest son plays
[40:12] Speaker 4: footy AFL here and Tazzi so my wild protection, he's
[40:15] Speaker 4: going to win. They're going to win their game next
[40:17] Speaker 4: week too. Get in there, go, let's go the Giants.
[40:23] Speaker 4: But look, my goal, my bold prediction, and look it's
[40:27] Speaker 4: probably more hopeful, but I'm confident that we are going
[40:31] Speaker 4: to get David Farley elected into House of Representatives, the
[40:35] Speaker 4: first since nineteen ninety six Pauline Hanson, and he's going
[40:38] Speaker 4: to stand there beside Barnaby. So looking forward to next.
[40:41] Speaker 2: Weekend, unbelievable, all right, will he'll be there Tuesday night
[40:43] Speaker 2: when we do the pub test and then we'll see
[40:44] Speaker 2: it all again unfold on Saturday.
[40:46] Speaker 1: Thank you guys, do appreciate it. Have a wonderful week.
[40:48] Speaker 1: We'll see you again next week orright, quick break back
[40:51] Speaker 1: with more after the.
[40:51] Speaker 2: UK and I mate Mark Doland. Plenty to talk about,
[40:54] Speaker 2: including a bit of Harry and Meghan. But I promise
[40:57] Speaker 2: you're going to want to stick around as well because
[40:58] Speaker 2: a brand new collection of Australian artists are about to
[41:02] Speaker 2: go into the Music Hall of Fame.
[41:03] Speaker 1: Whom are they and do you still listen to them?
[41:05] Speaker 1: You'll find out neist.
[41:12] Speaker 2: Mark Dolan is our mate in the United Kingdom. He
[41:14] Speaker 2: joins us now from Mary Old England. Right now, beautiful London,
[41:17] Speaker 2: How are you so figuring me? I'm not going to
[41:19] Speaker 2: call you sweet cheeks, like Caleb apparently did last week.
[41:21] Speaker 1: So let's get it back onto the manly level here.
[41:25] Speaker 2: Let's talk about what's happening in Iran here where again
[41:29] Speaker 2: sort of every day Trump will say this, Trump will
[41:31] Speaker 2: say that, but.
[41:31] Speaker 1: Nothing's really changing here.
[41:34] Speaker 2: So the question worth pondering here is the art of
[41:37] Speaker 2: the deal means what in this one?
[41:40] Speaker 5: Well, has Donald lost the art of the deal?
[41:42] Speaker 10: His entire reputation Paul as a deal maker is on
[41:46] Speaker 10: the line.
[41:46] Speaker 5: And it's interesting.
[41:47] Speaker 10: This is a war between Israel, America and Iran, but
[41:50] Speaker 10: we're all fighting that war, including your viewers in Australia,
[41:54] Speaker 10: because of the cost of fuel, and you know it's
[41:57] Speaker 10: going to get worse. So we've got the end of
[42:00] Speaker 10: May as a tipping point for global crude oil reserves,
[42:05] Speaker 10: at which point the price is spiral.
[42:07] Speaker 5: By the end of June, we're done. There's no more oil.
[42:10] Speaker 10: And what that means is a summer of hell, potentially
[42:13] Speaker 10: canceled flights, sky high prices at the pumps, and a
[42:16] Speaker 10: global recession. I don't think it's going to come to
[42:18] Speaker 10: that because I think the Americans still have leverage. Let's
[42:21] Speaker 10: not forget before this war the Iranium regime was a
[42:25] Speaker 10: basket case economically, they import so much food. America can
[42:29] Speaker 10: strike their energy infrastructure if they resume.
[42:34] Speaker 5: An attack on Iran.
[42:35] Speaker 10: So I think ultimately, yes, it's a stalemate, but I
[42:37] Speaker 10: think that the timeline, I think the clock is going
[42:40] Speaker 10: to win on this one. The pressure, of course is
[42:43] Speaker 10: Donald Trump. Domestically, people are struggling in America now with
[42:46] Speaker 10: the cost of gas.
[42:47] Speaker 5: But I think a deal will be done. It has
[42:49] Speaker 5: to be.
[42:51] Speaker 2: Now, let's talk about the future of the Prime Minister
[42:53] Speaker 2: Kia Starmer. So in the next couple of weeks there's
[42:55] Speaker 2: going to be a whole bunch of local government elections.
[42:58] Speaker 2: It's essentially like an automatic for endum. It is nationwide
[43:02] Speaker 2: about how the government is going. The expectation is that
[43:05] Speaker 2: reform is going to have an absolute belter. Labor goes
[43:08] Speaker 2: through the floor, a lot of Labour people will be
[43:10] Speaker 2: replaced by Greens, and there might even be a part
[43:13] Speaker 2: of that conservative vote that ends up with the Lib Dems.
[43:16] Speaker 2: But all of that, of course circles around the problems
[43:18] Speaker 2: of Kiir Starmer and for the Labor Party to find
[43:21] Speaker 2: a way back at a general election a couple of
[43:23] Speaker 2: years after that, maybe find a new leader. Now how
[43:26] Speaker 2: does that happen though, because in Australia, obviously, if a
[43:29] Speaker 2: majority of MPs walk in and they want to vote
[43:31] Speaker 2: to get rid of the leader, that's how we change
[43:33] Speaker 2: a prime minister. When you've got hundreds of them, how
[43:36] Speaker 2: does it happen.
[43:38] Speaker 10: Well, it's a real challenge. And the magic figure is
[43:40] Speaker 10: eighty paul. That's how many MP's in the House of
[43:43] Speaker 10: Commons of the the Labor Party must sort of be
[43:48] Speaker 10: gathered for one candidate. There's a guy called west streeting
[43:51] Speaker 10: he's running the health service at the moment he thinks
[43:54] Speaker 10: he's got the numbers. So it is definitely when, not
[43:56] Speaker 10: if Starmer goes, and it's because it's been a complete
[44:00] Speaker 10: mess across a range of issues.
[44:02] Speaker 5: Policy has been a disaster.
[44:03] Speaker 10: We've got open borders, we've got sky high inflation which
[44:06] Speaker 10: happened before the war in Iran, We've got zero growth,
[44:10] Speaker 10: there's antisocial behavior on the streets, so policy's not working.
[44:14] Speaker 10: And then of course the misjudgment of appointing Peter Mandelson
[44:17] Speaker 10: as the UK ambassador to the States. It's a quagmire
[44:21] Speaker 10: for Starmer. Plus he's got no personality, he's Britain's first
[44:24] Speaker 10: AI Prime Minister, Paul The guy's a robot, okay, and
[44:28] Speaker 10: also I'm afraid to say an inveterate liar as well,
[44:31] Speaker 10: so he's toast.
[44:33] Speaker 5: So it's a matter of.
[44:33] Speaker 10: When not Here the issue you've got the guy who's
[44:36] Speaker 10: got the eighty votes where Streeting?
[44:38] Speaker 5: He knows from history that he who wheeldeth the knife
[44:40] Speaker 5: does not always take the crown.
[44:42] Speaker 2: Well and the question of his ability to become Prime
[44:45] Speaker 2: minister is he actually an MP? Wasn't there an opportunity
[44:48] Speaker 2: he wanted to get into the Parliament brun some size
[44:51] Speaker 2: sord On?
[44:53] Speaker 10: Well, this is the problem Starmer's got because there are
[44:55] Speaker 10: several people who would like that top job. Now where Streeting,
[44:58] Speaker 10: what I mentioned, is in the House of Common But
[45:00] Speaker 10: of course you're referring to Andy Burnham, very charismatic mayor
[45:03] Speaker 10: of Greater Manchester. But big news breaking story today, which
[45:07] Speaker 10: is that Burnan has the approval of the Labor Party
[45:10] Speaker 10: machine to come back into the House of Commons in
[45:13] Speaker 10: a few weeks time. So if he gets into the Commons,
[45:16] Speaker 10: that's it because at that point you have your air apparent.
[45:20] Speaker 10: Keir Starmer will not be Prime Minister by Christmas, here
[45:23] Speaker 10: is a stuffed turkey.
[45:25] Speaker 2: Well, by the way, it's only started in the past
[45:27] Speaker 2: few weeks and I don't know how many people are
[45:29] Speaker 2: actually watching it in the UK, but Saturday Night Live
[45:32] Speaker 2: in the UK. Basically they're mimicking what happens in the
[45:36] Speaker 2: American one, which is you start every single episode with
[45:40] Speaker 2: a piss take of politics, and that often means having
[45:43] Speaker 2: a go at the Prime Minister, and they just paint
[45:46] Speaker 2: him over and over and over again.
[45:47] Speaker 1: You'd imagine all.
[45:48] Speaker 2: The lefties that are part of that creative community that
[45:51] Speaker 2: they are not trying to find any way to sugarcoat him.
[45:53] Speaker 2: They too are pointing and laughing right now. So it'll
[45:56] Speaker 2: be fascinating to see how they caricature or create the
[46:00] Speaker 2: character of the potential Angela Raigners or the others there. Yeah,
[46:03] Speaker 2: because what punch will they pull there? Because some of
[46:06] Speaker 2: those options are not fascinating at all. Last one, Harry
[46:09] Speaker 2: and Meghan canceled again.
[46:11] Speaker 10: Oh dear, there's trouble in Paradise. Do you have access
[46:15] Speaker 10: to the world's smallest violin? Because Meghan markles big commercial ambitions.
[46:19] Speaker 10: Paul are as a retail giant in the world of fashion, well,
[46:23] Speaker 10: it's not going that well because she cannot get a
[46:26] Speaker 10: ticket to the Met Ball, which, of course the Met Gala.
[46:29] Speaker 10: This is the big fashion event of the year in
[46:31] Speaker 10: New York and apparently the Queen of fashion, Anna win
[46:35] Speaker 10: Taurt of course, the great great icon of magazine publishing, Vogue,
[46:40] Speaker 10: you name it right, She's the woman that Meryl Streep
[46:42] Speaker 10: is based on in The Devil Wears Prada. She controls
[46:45] Speaker 10: everything and she has said no to Megan. So it's
[46:48] Speaker 10: a big humiliation and it's a financial headache because that's
[46:51] Speaker 10: how Meg's was hoping to make her money selling Klober
[46:55] Speaker 10: to the Great Unwashed.
[46:57] Speaker 2: Well, I've got to say, well, I never like being
[47:00] Speaker 2: away from the camera, and obviously we're you know, we're
[47:02] Speaker 2: off doing work. But I was very pleased that I
[47:05] Speaker 2: completely missed the whirlwind of Harry and Meghan coming in
[47:08] Speaker 2: and out of Australia in the past few weeks. So
[47:10] Speaker 2: thank you for bringing me up to date on matters
[47:12] Speaker 2: that there's still the losers that I imagined they were
[47:14] Speaker 2: when they were here. Thank you so much, Mark, I
[47:16] Speaker 2: do appreciate. We'll see you again next week, mate, have
[47:18] Speaker 2: a great day Sunday in London. Or right, quick break
[47:20] Speaker 2: back with more Who is going into the Aria Hall
[47:22] Speaker 2: of Fame?
[47:23] Speaker 1: I reckon you're going to know most of these names
[47:25] Speaker 1: and like them too.
[47:31] Speaker 8: Well.
[47:31] Speaker 1: We don't get much of a.
[47:32] Speaker 2: Chance to talk about Australian music that much on the show.
[47:35] Speaker 2: But I do love when a Hall of Fame gets
[47:37] Speaker 2: announced because it is, of course the tippy top, the
[47:39] Speaker 2: cherry on.
[47:39] Speaker 1: Top of the cake for many an artist.
[47:41] Speaker 2: And the Aria Hall of Fame has just been announced
[47:44] Speaker 2: about whom is going to be going.
[47:45] Speaker 1: In in June?
[47:47] Speaker 2: How did we all get old enough that Jenny Morris,
[47:50] Speaker 2: Kate Sobrano, Spider Bait, The Living End, Vica and Linda
[47:54] Speaker 2: are all going to go into the Aria Hall of Fame.
[47:57] Speaker 2: It'll happen on June the eleventh, standalone ceremony on top
[48:01] Speaker 2: of all of the awards, which normally happened towards the
[48:04] Speaker 2: end of the year. Again, I'm old enough to remember
[48:08] Speaker 2: actually playing certainly Spider Payt in the Living End back
[48:12] Speaker 2: when I worked million years ago.
[48:14] Speaker 1: At Nova and they had a new song coming out. Anyway,
[48:17] Speaker 1: now now they are.
[48:18] Speaker 2: In the Hall of Fame, all right, congratulations to them
[48:22] Speaker 2: as well as I've got to say disappointment for an excess.
[48:24] Speaker 2: They didn't get into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame,
[48:26] Speaker 2: but there's a chance to vote for them again next year.
[48:28] Speaker 1: I love this stuff. It's very cool. All right. That's
[48:30] Speaker 1: our show for to night.
[48:31] Speaker 2: Thank you very much for watching stand by for Newsnight,
[48:33] Speaker 2: and a reminder Tuesday night the Farah pub Test. This
[48:37] Speaker 2: is where we are going to have all of the
[48:39] Speaker 2: main candidates. There will have the Independent, we'll have one Nation,
[48:42] Speaker 2: we'll have the Libs and we will have the Nats.
[48:45] Speaker 1: The questions they don't come from me.
[48:46] Speaker 2: They come from the good people in the audience, who
[48:48] Speaker 2: are thankfully the people who watched this program. But we've
[48:51] Speaker 2: got an absolutely chocker's room. So thank you to the
[48:53] Speaker 2: people who are still writing emails to be saying, hey
[48:55] Speaker 2: can I get in? Probably not, why because the fire
[48:58] Speaker 2: code might becoming issue year.
[49:00] Speaker 1: We've got an awful lot of people. It's there Tuesday night.
[49:02] Speaker 1: We'll also start.
[49:03] Speaker 2: Off with the brand new edition of the Sky News Pulse,
[49:06] Speaker 2: so we'll be making news at the start, the middle
[49:08] Speaker 2: and the end of that program. Make sure you are
[49:10] Speaker 2: watching all night long Tuesday night. In the meantime, I
[49:13] Speaker 2: hope you return for Monday night's program. But here's the
[49:15] Speaker 2: latest news on sky News

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