# Bloomberg Money: 'Fed Needs Clear Inflation Target and Messaging'

An episode of [Bloomberg Intelligence](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/326301337), 1 Aug 2026, 40 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/tracking.swap.fm/track/UVBrz8bN8aM2Xe47PEPu/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8e704079-ca57-4eac-9741-ae27003e2b7f/2752df05-7c79-44d1-a89a-b498014dd3da/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=0ad812bf-fd15-4012-a18c-ae3c00090c76

Bloomberg Money takes the pulse of your financial life, powered by the reporting of our global newsroom. Today's guests include: • Richard Clarida, Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair • Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head:US Equity Strategy • Hannah Elliot, Hot Pursuit! Podcast co-host See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, Bloomberg Money.
[0:12] Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Money Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with
[0:16] Speaker 2: Scarlet Foo. Join us each week for a smart look
[0:19] Speaker 2: at the forces shaping your financial life. On personal finance,
[0:23] Speaker 2: on retirement, and wealth management. We will explore how people
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[0:36] Speaker 2: wherever you listen, and it's always on the Bloomberg Terminal
[0:40] Speaker 2: and the Bloomberg Business app. And we get it out
[0:43] Speaker 2: of the park today. Girls here for Bloomberg this week
[0:46] Speaker 2: and it's wonderful to see David Girl Bloomberg this weekend.
[0:49] Speaker 2: Alison Schreger here with an important story and this is
[0:52] Speaker 2: a real pleasure. Hannah Elliott. What you do is you
[0:55] Speaker 2: go to Baylor and if you do Baylor, you do autos?
[0:58] Speaker 2: Hannah Elliott? Or is this working with Matt Miller on
[1:01] Speaker 2: an esteamed auto podcast. Let's get it started. I walked
[1:04] Speaker 2: by Elucid. Elucid two hundred thousand dollars or something. Are
[1:10] Speaker 2: they selling? Are we going to buy fancy overpriced evs
[1:14] Speaker 2: with our wealth management?
[1:16] Speaker 3: Apparently not the sales say no, the sales day Americans
[1:21] Speaker 3: don't want EV's. Unfortunately, for companies like Lucid and Tesla
[1:25] Speaker 3: and Ribbon that are struggling, and also for our domestic
[1:29] Speaker 3: automakers that are actually pulling back on a lot of EV's,
[1:32] Speaker 3: they had money.
[1:32] Speaker 2: Question. Yeah, I'm Scarlett probably as this, I'm going to
[1:35] Speaker 2: steal it from her. Should the Chinese be let into
[1:38] Speaker 2: America to sell as cheap evs?
[1:40] Speaker 3: You know what, I'm not an economist. Jim Farley at
[1:43] Speaker 3: Ford thinks that EV's from China will be.
[1:46] Speaker 4: Here in the next five years or so. A lot
[1:48] Speaker 4: of people.
[1:49] Speaker 3: Keith Manton are esteemed automotive reporter came on the podcast yesterday,
[1:53] Speaker 3: agrees it's only a matter of time.
[1:56] Speaker 5: It's only a matter of time. But I mean under
[1:58] Speaker 5: this president, unlikely, right, David, because he is all about
[2:01] Speaker 5: trade wars and tariffs and making sure that he seeks
[2:05] Speaker 5: vengeance on those who have wronged him in the past.
[2:07] Speaker 5: And you see this across the policy spectrum.
[2:10] Speaker 6: That's absolutely correct. I mean, he's somebody who loves tariffs,
[2:12] Speaker 6: as he says time and time again. I would have
[2:14] Speaker 6: a hard time imagining him welcoming Chinese autos into the
[2:17] Speaker 6: United States as he invites American automakers to the lawn
[2:20] Speaker 6: of the White House over and over again. We saw
[2:23] Speaker 6: him put these new tariffs in place just a few
[2:24] Speaker 6: days ago, so that that's very much the direction of travel.
[2:27] Speaker 2: There kids at camp. We also have a president of
[2:29] Speaker 2: the United States at camp. He's at Camp David right now,
[2:32] Speaker 2: sixty miles north of the White House. In the history
[2:36] Speaker 2: of this cabinet room is extraordinary. I guess of everything.
[2:39] Speaker 2: I remember monocolm began and and we're sad out with
[2:42] Speaker 2: Carter in seventy nine. Why is the president there? And
[2:46] Speaker 2: it's a place where they talk about war, isn't It's
[2:48] Speaker 2: a great question.
[2:49] Speaker 6: And were I the president, I wouldn't go for the
[2:51] Speaker 6: day and leave as he's going to do. He's headed
[2:52] Speaker 6: to Bedminster after this, but gets in the Toctin Mountains
[2:56] Speaker 6: in Maryland, as you say, sixty miles outside of Washington,
[2:58] Speaker 6: d C. We saw FDR go there during his presidency,
[3:01] Speaker 6: which called Shangri La back then, and Dwight Eisenhoward didn't
[3:04] Speaker 6: like the name. He thought that was a little too
[3:05] Speaker 6: a feat so he changed it to Camp David in
[3:07] Speaker 6: honor of his grandson. He went there for many weeks
[3:09] Speaker 6: after he had a heart attack in Denver. There is
[3:11] Speaker 6: some talk of this being the first cabinet meeting at
[3:13] Speaker 6: Camp David. No, this one is not Eisen Howard can
[3:16] Speaker 6: being the While he was there.
[3:17] Speaker 2: There's a photoscoll and I saw President Obama playing pool
[3:21] Speaker 2: and you could I could see President Trump bowling President
[3:25] Speaker 2: bowling Alley. There is a bowling Alley image.
[3:28] Speaker 4: I don't get that on truth Social.
[3:30] Speaker 6: But this is really just a venue change. It's the
[3:31] Speaker 6: same kind of cabinet meeting we've seen. He's invited the press,
[3:33] Speaker 6: and then I'll say, lastly on your point about the
[3:36] Speaker 6: significance of this venue, and presidents have liked this place
[3:38] Speaker 6: in the past because the press hasn't been.
[3:40] Speaker 2: Able to go.
[3:40] Speaker 6: And we see President from kind of turning that on
[3:42] Speaker 6: its sad guys, he's got a live filmed cabinet meeting
[3:46] Speaker 6: taking place again.
[3:47] Speaker 4: Well, he's being true to his spirit.
[3:49] Speaker 5: Alix, I want to bring you into the conversation because
[3:50] Speaker 5: you recently had a column on how Americans are richer
[3:54] Speaker 5: than ever before, but they're also.
[3:55] Speaker 4: Angrier than ever before as well.
[3:57] Speaker 5: The top one percent is richer or is everyone getting
[3:59] Speaker 5: richer because you wonder how much of this is you know,
[4:02] Speaker 5: kind of relative gains.
[4:04] Speaker 1: Well, everyone is getting richer. The top one percent has
[4:07] Speaker 1: gotten way way richer. Even if you look at the
[4:09] Speaker 1: intercome distribution. It's true the middle class is smaller, but
[4:12] Speaker 1: because more people have entered the upper middle class. But
[4:15] Speaker 1: even lower income people are by most metrics bet are
[4:19] Speaker 1: often they used to be. But it's sort of extraordinary
[4:22] Speaker 1: because all we hear is people feel like the economy
[4:24] Speaker 1: is not working for them. So, you know, there's a
[4:27] Speaker 1: lot of reasons why that could be. It could be
[4:29] Speaker 1: some like necessary services are still expensive, could be relative
[4:33] Speaker 1: gains or what matters.
[4:34] Speaker 5: You know, I wonder whether how much of this is
[4:37] Speaker 5: tied to fundamental misunderstandings about how investing or financial markets work.
[4:41] Speaker 5: You think about gen Z and they really adopted this
[4:43] Speaker 5: financial nihilism where they bet the house on crypto prediction
[4:46] Speaker 5: markets all these other things. And you know, because why
[4:49] Speaker 5: noting everything doesn't look good for them anyway, they feel
[4:52] Speaker 5: like everything's rigged regardless.
[4:54] Speaker 1: Yeah, it's there is more of this feeling that success
[4:57] Speaker 1: is sort of randomly rather than you know, or I'm
[4:59] Speaker 1: also seeing the sort of disconnect and understanding risk. That
[5:02] Speaker 1: risk comes from taking, you know, from risking more like
[5:05] Speaker 1: you've got higher rewards for more taking more risk, And
[5:08] Speaker 1: I don't think this of that relationship has been well understood. Also,
[5:13] Speaker 1: I feel like there's a dearth of risk taking in
[5:15] Speaker 1: a lot of their lives in other ways. So I
[5:17] Speaker 1: feel like it's expressing themselves through taking sort of outside
[5:20] Speaker 1: risks in other ways, like maybe they won't invest in
[5:22] Speaker 1: this in p. Five hundred, but they'll invest in you know,
[5:26] Speaker 1: the you know, Calshier or whatever. So it might be
[5:29] Speaker 1: so also a lack of financial literacy or a lask
[5:32] Speaker 1: of good risk training.
[5:33] Speaker 2: Well, you mentioned the financial literacy. You own the high
[5:35] Speaker 2: ground on this with your book and with your academics
[5:39] Speaker 2: as well. We're going to have the former vice chairman
[5:41] Speaker 2: of the FEDHAN and with your heritage to Manhattan Institute
[5:44] Speaker 2: and all that. What did you think of the press conference?
[5:49] Speaker 1: You know, there's two things I've changed my mind about
[5:51] Speaker 1: in the last five years. One is drug legalization and
[5:55] Speaker 1: the other is monetary policy transparency, which I was like
[5:59] Speaker 1: a big thing of. You know, Actually Rich was chair
[6:02] Speaker 1: of the department when I was at Columbia, so I
[6:04] Speaker 1: learned all this stuff from him, and it's just I
[6:07] Speaker 1: feel like the FED sort of started to box itself
[6:09] Speaker 1: in a little bit too much a forward guidance. Okay,
[6:12] Speaker 1: so to some degree, I think, you know, well, maybe
[6:15] Speaker 1: it wors just not communicating so.
[6:17] Speaker 2: Well right now?
[6:18] Speaker 7: Okay, you know, maybe a little mystery and a little like, hey,
[6:22] Speaker 7: we think why I.
[6:23] Speaker 2: Use that word the other day? The mystery or how
[6:25] Speaker 2: does he pull away from too much mystery?
[6:28] Speaker 7: Well, you want a clear reaction function, you want clear rules,
[6:34] Speaker 7: but you also don't want to say, hey, we're going
[6:36] Speaker 7: to probably increase rates in five years or for the years,
[6:40] Speaker 7: so you kind of want to strike that fout.
[6:41] Speaker 2: The blumber of money angle on this is the yield.
[6:43] Speaker 2: I'm sorry, we're mortgage rates in two weeks.
[6:46] Speaker 5: The mortgage is now at six point six six percent.
[6:49] Speaker 5: That's a one year high. We're not at seven percent yet,
[6:52] Speaker 5: but it does make home ownership a lot more expensive.
[6:55] Speaker 5: And David, there's a lot of talk about the affordability crisis.
[6:58] Speaker 5: Has DC come up with any solutions that will I
[7:00] Speaker 5: don't know, resonate with voters before the midterm elections?
[7:04] Speaker 2: No, not really.
[7:05] Speaker 6: I mean, there was this housing build that the president
[7:06] Speaker 6: liked until he didn't like, and so I think that
[7:08] Speaker 6: there's been some lip service to it. But we're at
[7:10] Speaker 6: a point now as we approach the midterm, so I
[7:12] Speaker 6: think the prospects there being any kind of real landmark
[7:14] Speaker 6: legislation coming together seems pretty unlikely. But I think that,
[7:19] Speaker 6: you know, you, going back to the meeting that's taking
[7:21] Speaker 6: place right now, the president has this difficulties overseas and
[7:25] Speaker 6: in the US, and this is certainly something I think.
[7:26] Speaker 2: That's what thirty seconds and I gave you the last word.
[7:29] Speaker 2: Is everybody leaving California?
[7:31] Speaker 4: Oh gosh, if you're rich, maybe yes.
[7:34] Speaker 2: Yeah, you talk about personal funding.
[7:36] Speaker 3: Really, it's really tricky. Everybody's watching the mayoral race. This
[7:39] Speaker 3: is a really in LA specifically.
[7:42] Speaker 4: You're going to Texas, You're going to Florida. Exactly.
[7:44] Speaker 2: Do you have Red Sox Dodgers tickets this weekend?
[7:46] Speaker 8: I do not.
[7:46] Speaker 9: I'm a mixed fan.
[7:47] Speaker 4: Tom Okay, nice exactly. I want to thank our panelist.
[7:54] Speaker 5: Thank you so much everyone, David Garral, co host of
[7:56] Speaker 5: Blueberg this weekend, and of course be sure to tune
[7:58] Speaker 5: in up because they will will be hosting their next
[8:01] Speaker 5: episode at seven am Eastern Time tomorrow and on Sunday.
[8:03] Speaker 5: Alison Schrager, Bloomberg Opinion columnist. You can check out her
[8:07] Speaker 5: latest work on Bloomberg dot Com, Slash Opinion and Hannah Elliott.
[8:10] Speaker 4: Her Hot Pursuit.
[8:11] Speaker 5: Podcast with one Matt Miller comes out every Friday at noon.
[8:15] Speaker 5: Just tune in after the show.
[8:17] Speaker 2: Coming up the conversation and after that press conference an
[8:20] Speaker 2: important conversation for global economics. Richard Clarita, the former vice
[8:25] Speaker 2: chairman of the Federal Reserve. His academics is directly involved
[8:30] Speaker 2: in the uproar that chairman wars started here on Wednesday.
[8:34] Speaker 2: Richie clarda next from New York City. It's Bloomberg Money.
[8:40] Speaker 2: You studied under clarity.
[8:41] Speaker 4: Can Ebie's ever become collectibles?
[8:45] Speaker 2: Did you pass the math? Welcome back at Bloomberg Money
[8:55] Speaker 2: thrilled you with us, Tom Keenan Scarlett Food. It was
[8:57] Speaker 2: going to be an important interview, but well maybe a
[9:00] Speaker 2: a little more important than it was. Wednesday at one pm.
[9:03] Speaker 2: Richard Clarida is with us with PIMCO of Columbia University,
[9:07] Speaker 2: always and always the vice chairman, former Vice chairman. I
[9:10] Speaker 2: should say the Federal Reserve system, and I think you
[9:13] Speaker 2: know we're going to straddle here between Bloomberg money and
[9:16] Speaker 2: everything else.
[9:16] Speaker 5: Yeah, and we got to start with what we saw
[9:18] Speaker 5: in the bond market this week, because we had to
[9:20] Speaker 5: sell off in the thirty year yield this week reached
[9:22] Speaker 5: a nineteen year high five point twenty six percent, Rich Clarida.
[9:26] Speaker 5: Does this sell off in the long line tell us
[9:28] Speaker 5: anything about the US economy and therefore how people's prospects
[9:31] Speaker 5: might change.
[9:33] Speaker 10: Well, there are a lot of reasons bond eeals can
[9:35] Speaker 10: go up and down, not just the Fed. The FED
[9:37] Speaker 10: is an important part of it. What I would point
[9:40] Speaker 10: to is that so far Kevin Warsh has been shared
[9:43] Speaker 10: really only six seven.
[9:45] Speaker 9: Weeks, but an important measure in the.
[9:47] Speaker 10: Bond market, which is break even inflation, so sort of
[9:50] Speaker 10: traders expectation of inflation is out or below where it
[9:53] Speaker 10: was at least out to ten years when he became chairman.
[9:56] Speaker 10: But certainly the reaction during the press conference was probably
[10:00] Speaker 10: not one that was welcome.
[10:01] Speaker 5: Right, we know the first Trump administration cared a lot
[10:04] Speaker 5: about the stock market, and the second one seems to
[10:06] Speaker 5: have added the bond market to its list of things
[10:08] Speaker 5: that is watching. Which part of the bond market does
[10:12] Speaker 5: this administration care most about? The thirty year yield the
[10:14] Speaker 5: ten year yield.
[10:16] Speaker 10: Oh my goodness, I'm not sure I would defer probably
[10:19] Speaker 10: a secretary bust and I do think at one point
[10:21] Speaker 10: he may have said that he's focused more on the
[10:23] Speaker 10: ten year yield than he is on the FED funds rate. Well,
[10:26] Speaker 10: so much of the economy people borrow along for car
[10:28] Speaker 10: loans or mortgages or corporate loans, and so that's probably
[10:32] Speaker 10: what he had in mind.
[10:33] Speaker 2: Okay, So what we're going to do here, it's Bloomberg money.
[10:35] Speaker 2: We do personal finance, we do wealth management, we do retirement.
[10:39] Speaker 2: But we also have Richard Clarita where this is in
[10:42] Speaker 2: the heart of this debate over the chairman of the Fed.
[10:45] Speaker 2: So it's going to be a little bit sort of
[10:47] Speaker 2: like Scarfoon and Time doing Bloomberg surveillance like more you can.
[10:51] Speaker 4: Protect the children at that minder blurry, protect the.
[10:53] Speaker 9: Children at home valance.
[10:54] Speaker 2: Fine, okay, so former Vice chairman, with great respect, I
[10:59] Speaker 2: don't want to turn this into a street lesson. But
[11:01] Speaker 2: you have Wosh nominally of Stanford talking about the Lucas
[11:05] Speaker 2: critique and then going over and what people don't know
[11:08] Speaker 2: is you're directly involved with this. Let's first listen to
[11:12] Speaker 2: Chairman Warsh on Wednesday.
[11:15] Speaker 11: Some version of the Lucas critique should remind us that
[11:20] Speaker 11: when we talk about measures of inflation or something else,
[11:27] Speaker 11: and we describe those measures as being consistent with our objectives,
[11:31] Speaker 11: we might make them such that they're not very good
[11:34] Speaker 11: measures or very good objectives.
[11:37] Speaker 2: The chairman before we had the questions from Michael McKee
[11:40] Speaker 2: of Bloomberg, the world lit up, an along with legit
[11:44] Speaker 2: cred Out of Lucas's Chicago was fiery. The news conference
[11:49] Speaker 2: was rich in philosophy, process and institutional aspirations, but poor
[11:54] Speaker 2: in operational guidance. The absence of claritai like analytical specificity
[11:59] Speaker 2: appears to have spoken louder than Worsh's words. So Lucas
[12:04] Speaker 2: did what he did. CGG, Clarita, Galli, and Gertner reinvented
[12:09] Speaker 2: modern economics with something called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory.
[12:15] Speaker 2: We come out now, and as Claudia Sam says, we
[12:18] Speaker 2: have a chairman who's not sure what he's looking at
[12:20] Speaker 2: an inflation. How does he get the buryls Macon. Does
[12:24] Speaker 2: he need to reaffirm PCE is the inflation series? Well?
[12:29] Speaker 10: I think what he said at the press conference is
[12:31] Speaker 10: for now until next January at least that's going to
[12:34] Speaker 10: be correct. So the FED adopted that again in January.
[12:37] Speaker 10: He left open the possibility that the task forces could
[12:40] Speaker 10: recommend other measures. They could go to an average instead
[12:43] Speaker 10: of picking one INDUX, they could look at CPIPPI.
[12:46] Speaker 9: There are a lot of things they could do.
[12:48] Speaker 10: But I think Anna as usual raised is an important
[12:50] Speaker 10: point is that an inflation targeting central bank needs to
[12:54] Speaker 10: be clear about what it is it's targeting. It can,
[12:57] Speaker 10: it may evolve, and so I think that will be
[12:59] Speaker 10: important very importantly.
[13:02] Speaker 2: Then here, if we need to get the system back
[13:05] Speaker 2: with a confidence about the FED, how does he do
[13:08] Speaker 2: that at Jackson Hole? Does he have to reaffirm as
[13:12] Speaker 2: Somem says, that inflation is the appropriate measurement and not
[13:16] Speaker 2: a policy.
[13:19] Speaker 10: Well, I think Jackson Hole may serve a couple purposes. Historically,
[13:23] Speaker 10: as we've seen, chairs have used Jackson Hole as sort
[13:26] Speaker 10: of a sneak preview of coming attractions. At the September, November,
[13:30] Speaker 10: and December meetings, Chairman war Shennedy may do that.
[13:33] Speaker 9: He's also interested.
[13:34] Speaker 10: In what he called some big question, big picture questions
[13:38] Speaker 10: that he sort of previewed at this meeting, and he's
[13:41] Speaker 10: also talking to the task forces.
[13:43] Speaker 9: I think it's too early to tell what he'll do at.
[13:45] Speaker 10: Jackson Hole, but he may do that as well.
[13:48] Speaker 5: I find it really interesting that he doesn't want to
[13:51] Speaker 5: tell the bond market a whole lot of things, and
[13:53] Speaker 5: he's kind of waiting to take his cue from the
[13:55] Speaker 5: bond market.
[13:55] Speaker 4: From a layperson's point of view, it feels very circular.
[13:57] Speaker 3: Right.
[13:57] Speaker 5: The Central Bank sets a benchwork industry, the bond market
[14:00] Speaker 5: takes its que from that. What's the rationale for the
[14:03] Speaker 5: FED to take its queue from the bond market that's
[14:05] Speaker 5: relying on the FED to set policy.
[14:07] Speaker 4: Help me understand that.
[14:08] Speaker 10: So here's the way I would express it. The FED
[14:13] Speaker 10: is a very important part of ten year treasury yields.
[14:16] Speaker 9: It's not the only thing that drives yields.
[14:18] Speaker 10: So I think the Chairman was important to emphasize that
[14:21] Speaker 10: the FED does want to step back and interp movements
[14:24] Speaker 10: in bond yields. It could be inflation, it could be
[14:26] Speaker 10: global growth, Middle East hostilities, but certainly the Chairman and
[14:29] Speaker 10: the FED understands that an important part of tenier yields
[14:32] Speaker 10: is the expected path of the funds rate and to
[14:35] Speaker 10: Scarlett's point, and I actually Ben bernanke gave a speech
[14:38] Speaker 10: on this, as did I as vice chair. It's called
[14:40] Speaker 10: sometimes called the hall of mirrors problem in central banking,
[14:43] Speaker 10: which is the central bank looks at the market, the
[14:45] Speaker 10: market looks at the central bank.
[14:47] Speaker 2: It gets circular. Let's go back to your page. Gallian
[14:50] Speaker 2: Gertler didn't know this. Richard claar to channeling Alan Blinder.
[14:54] Speaker 2: Having looked at monetary policy from Joni Mitchell's both sides,
[14:57] Speaker 2: now I can testify that central banking in practice is
[15:01] Speaker 2: as much in art as a science. How does worsh
[15:05] Speaker 2: get back to science to Clarita silence versus some mom
[15:09] Speaker 2: and pop philosophy he learned at Stanford?
[15:13] Speaker 10: Oh well, I think Kevin Walsh and the committee understand that. Look,
[15:17] Speaker 10: Kevin came in. Chairman Warsh came in with an ambitious agenda,
[15:22] Speaker 10: and I think that they're going to both focus on
[15:26] Speaker 10: implementing that agenda as well as getting to where they
[15:29] Speaker 10: need to be on policy. I guess where I would
[15:31] Speaker 10: try to relate Clarita Galley Gertler to the current conversation
[15:35] Speaker 10: is perhaps specifically in the domain of forward guidance and
[15:38] Speaker 10: so in the CGG model, there's actually not a role
[15:42] Speaker 10: for forward guidance because the market understands the FED reaction
[15:46] Speaker 10: function and the FED understands the market. If you're not
[15:50] Speaker 10: going to do forward guidance, then it's incumbent for the
[15:53] Speaker 10: markets to have a broad understanding of how the central
[15:56] Speaker 10: bank will react to data. If we had six bad
[15:58] Speaker 10: months in a row of inflation data, would they hike
[16:00] Speaker 10: and by hand much?
[16:01] Speaker 9: They're not committing to that, but they're saying, if the
[16:04] Speaker 9: data comes out this way.
[16:05] Speaker 2: For everybody have Bloomberg money and Scott I got goosebumps.
[16:08] Speaker 2: This is like the real deal. I mean, this is
[16:10] Speaker 2: what the adults in the room are arguing about right now.
[16:14] Speaker 5: Well, for people who are watching this and don't quite
[16:16] Speaker 5: know all the names that you and Rich are throwing
[16:18] Speaker 5: out there, I want to bring it back to the
[16:19] Speaker 5: real economy and the real people's concerns. Do you agree
[16:22] Speaker 5: with those people who say that we have a K
[16:24] Speaker 5: shaped economy where the higher income and asset owners are
[16:27] Speaker 5: doing well and everyone else is kind of struggling that
[16:29] Speaker 5: downward arm, and if so, how do we solve for that?
[16:33] Speaker 10: Well, yes, broadly, we do and have had a K
[16:37] Speaker 10: shape economy for some time, but the K, the branches
[16:41] Speaker 10: of the K, have been diverging more widely in the
[16:43] Speaker 10: last six or seven years. The way I like to
[16:45] Speaker 10: think about it, Scarlett is roughly sixty percent of Americans
[16:49] Speaker 10: live in a house that's owner occupied housing, sometimes with
[16:53] Speaker 10: their parents, but it's owned about forty percent rent. Most
[16:56] Speaker 10: of that sixty percent owned stocks, most of the other
[16:59] Speaker 10: forty percent doesn't. So we've been in an economy for
[17:02] Speaker 10: some time, but especially in the last six years when
[17:04] Speaker 10: stocks have gone up, house prices have gone up.
[17:07] Speaker 9: So the top of that K is doing pretty well.
[17:09] Speaker 10: If you're in the other part of the K, you
[17:11] Speaker 10: don't own your house, you don't own a lot of stocks,
[17:13] Speaker 10: you're living paycheck to paycheck. It's been a tough six years,
[17:17] Speaker 10: and so there's no doubt we're in a casehay to.
[17:19] Speaker 5: Now those services costs just keep getting more expensive as well.
[17:26] Speaker 2: From New York City on a Friday, Bloomberg Money, Tom
[17:28] Speaker 2: keenan Scarlet Food and with Scarlet Food, Richard Claire and you.
[17:32] Speaker 5: Know, Bloomberg money is about how you invest and make
[17:34] Speaker 5: your money, but it's also about how you spend your money.
[17:37] Speaker 5: So Rich claud I want to ask you on this Friday,
[17:39] Speaker 5: what's your splurge?
[17:40] Speaker 4: First of all, and how do you save? What do
[17:42] Speaker 4: you savell?
[17:45] Speaker 10: I leave the saving to my wife, she's pretty good
[17:47] Speaker 10: at it. My splurge is on My hobby is music,
[17:50] Speaker 10: So I buy guitars, I buy recording equipment.
[17:52] Speaker 9: Really, I even spend money. I'm recording my albums. So yeah,
[17:57] Speaker 9: that's my splurge.
[17:58] Speaker 4: Then you rich record album.
[18:00] Speaker 10: In twenty sixteen, I did available Spotify, Apple Music stream
[18:04] Speaker 10: for free on YouTube. The new album's coming out later
[18:07] Speaker 10: this year. Maybe we'll do a rollout party on this show.
[18:10] Speaker 4: Oh it's a follow up. Yeah, yeah, Well what's it called.
[18:12] Speaker 9: It's gonna be called take two?
[18:14] Speaker 4: Take two? Okay? And what folk music?
[18:16] Speaker 3: Like?
[18:17] Speaker 4: What's your vibe?
[18:17] Speaker 9: Olk rock?
[18:18] Speaker 2: Yeah?
[18:18] Speaker 10: Folk ross someone who listened to too many Beatles albums.
[18:21] Speaker 2: And I will editorialize as i've heard it. It is
[18:24] Speaker 2: not a vanity album. It is exquisite. I was shocked.
[18:28] Speaker 2: Let's thank you really really quite thank you quit?
[18:31] Speaker 5: And you're the solo star, like I don't hear a
[18:32] Speaker 5: band name in there.
[18:33] Speaker 10: Well, I write the songs and do the vocals, but
[18:36] Speaker 10: I work with professional studio musicians in London, LA and Nashville.
[18:40] Speaker 10: So all the music you hear is really good playing
[18:41] Speaker 10: and then I do some singing on it.
[18:43] Speaker 4: Richard Clarts a new album coming.
[18:45] Speaker 10: Out with Day Well by December thirty first.
[18:48] Speaker 5: By December thirty first, Richard Clater to thank you so much.
[18:50] Speaker 5: Pimcoll global economic advisor, the former Feederal Reserve Vice chairman,
[18:54] Speaker 5: and of course Columbia University professor as well. Coming up
[18:57] Speaker 5: a conversation with Laurie Calvacino of RBC Capital Markets on
[19:01] Speaker 5: your retirement fund.
[19:02] Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg Money. That is.
[19:14] Speaker 5: Bloomberg Money is your new destination for personal finance. It's
[19:17] Speaker 5: a cross platform effort that extends beyond your television, including
[19:20] Speaker 5: at our new digital hub at Bloomberg dot com slash money.
[19:23] Speaker 5: And this week's story I saw on that site is
[19:26] Speaker 5: focused on Boomerang kids.
[19:27] Speaker 4: It used to be that after.
[19:28] Speaker 5: The kids graduated from college, they were out on their own,
[19:32] Speaker 5: off your payroll, out of your house. In twenty twenty six,
[19:34] Speaker 5: that is no longer a safe assumption. Suzanne Woolly joins
[19:37] Speaker 5: us now to discuss how to protect your money and
[19:40] Speaker 5: maybe your sanity when an adult child requires support. Suzanne
[19:44] Speaker 5: Great to see you, and I guess the first question
[19:46] Speaker 5: is how much does it cost? What is the cost
[19:48] Speaker 5: financial cost of letting a grown child move back.
[19:50] Speaker 4: Into your home.
[19:51] Speaker 12: Financial planners talk about an average of fifteen hundred dollars
[19:55] Speaker 12: a month, which comes out about eighteen thousand a year.
[19:58] Speaker 12: So it's more significant then you might think. And it's
[20:02] Speaker 12: not just recent graduates either. I mean your adult children
[20:04] Speaker 12: could be separating or divorcing and have kids, have pets
[20:09] Speaker 12: on their own and bring them back home.
[20:11] Speaker 4: How do you plan for this?
[20:12] Speaker 5: What are the planners saying you can do to kind
[20:14] Speaker 5: of get ahead of this?
[20:15] Speaker 12: Well, I say, I mean an important part is to
[20:17] Speaker 12: just set expectations. So when your adult child wants to
[20:20] Speaker 12: come look back home, talk about, you know, will they
[20:23] Speaker 12: pay some rent? Sure, you'll give them below market rent,
[20:25] Speaker 12: of course, you know which, but it may increase over time,
[20:28] Speaker 12: you know, so they have sort of an incentive to
[20:30] Speaker 12: not make this arrangement last forever.
[20:32] Speaker 4: Yeah.
[20:33] Speaker 12: So setting expectations about rent and about privacy and just
[20:38] Speaker 12: how things are going to work, it's just really important.
[20:41] Speaker 4: Can use our question please.
[20:43] Speaker 2: Jo, I mean, ask you for a friend, how do
[20:45] Speaker 2: you get them out the door once.
[20:47] Speaker 12: They move back in well, Tom, you must have made
[20:50] Speaker 12: it a little too comfortable for them.
[20:51] Speaker 2: That's the major thing. Make it too comfortable.
[20:54] Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean you definitely don't want to be rating
[20:56] Speaker 5: your retirement account or drawing down on your savings and
[20:59] Speaker 5: perhaps not retire because they've come home to exactly.
[21:02] Speaker 4: I mean, that's the key.
[21:03] Speaker 12: If it's coming at the expense of your retirement security,
[21:06] Speaker 12: you really have to think twice because your kids will
[21:08] Speaker 12: have a long runway, you know, for earnings. Your runway
[21:12] Speaker 12: if you're closer retiring is nuts.
[21:14] Speaker 2: I'm going to get upset now. I remember sitting on
[21:16] Speaker 2: the bed with my father. I came home from school
[21:20] Speaker 2: and all that, and he said, you got four weeks
[21:22] Speaker 2: to move out. That was the runway. The runway was for.
[21:25] Speaker 4: Are you getting your kids four weeks?
[21:27] Speaker 2: No, they've been very good about it, actually, but I admit,
[21:31] Speaker 2: just like you say, we're all writing checks.
[21:34] Speaker 12: Yeah, you're writing checks, what I mean. And sometimes it's
[21:36] Speaker 12: great to have your kid move back, you.
[21:38] Speaker 4: Know, for a while, at least in it for a while, and.
[21:40] Speaker 12: If they're fatting, rent and maybe doing chores, empty.
[21:45] Speaker 2: The dishwasher, walk to dog, all that.
[21:47] Speaker 5: So Zanne, thank you so much, Suzanne Woolly is a
[21:49] Speaker 5: member of our Bloomberg money team.
[21:51] Speaker 2: Laura Calvausina's over here taking note. She's got young cherubs
[21:54] Speaker 2: and she says, is this what this? This is what
[21:56] Speaker 2: I had with kel Vassina Morney. We are thrilled the
[21:59] Speaker 2: brig you now. Lori Calvisina had a US equity strategy
[22:03] Speaker 2: at RBC Capital Markets, scary power points in a view
[22:07] Speaker 2: of the equity market that's allowed people to be invested
[22:12] Speaker 2: given their fears. Let's do this, let's bring it up
[22:14] Speaker 2: right now. Is we can our money musterd here from Calvasena,
[22:18] Speaker 2: It's from front of eighty page power points. It's like
[22:21] Speaker 2: Mary Meeker on steroids. Lori Calvisina, our main sentiment model
[22:26] Speaker 2: points to a gain of ten point eight percent over
[22:29] Speaker 2: the next twelve months. You look here at the draw
[22:32] Speaker 2: down fifty percent, Great Financial Crisis, World War two forty percent,
[22:37] Speaker 2: and then you've got to get out front and still
[22:40] Speaker 2: be optimistic. Do you fear the big draw down?
[22:44] Speaker 13: So our base case has been we're going to be
[22:46] Speaker 13: higher over the next twelve months, but it's not going
[22:48] Speaker 13: to be in a linear fashion. And we assume that
[22:50] Speaker 13: we're going to have at least one, maybe more drawdowns
[22:53] Speaker 13: of five to ten percent. We call that tier one
[22:55] Speaker 13: on our Tiers of Fear framework. What we do, you know,
[22:58] Speaker 13: as sort of things come up in the market, right,
[23:00] Speaker 13: we'll look at what we call tier two, tier three,
[23:02] Speaker 13: tier four and sort of evaluate is their risk.
[23:05] Speaker 8: Of falling into one of those.
[23:06] Speaker 13: Not because we're telling everybody, you know, especially sort of
[23:09] Speaker 13: in retail investorland, to sell, but to be prepared for.
[23:12] Speaker 8: What might be your job.
[23:13] Speaker 2: Is to go out and talk to people and say
[23:15] Speaker 2: to them, let the fear go, Let it go, let
[23:18] Speaker 2: it go, let it go. They're frozen because they're worried
[23:22] Speaker 2: about that big draw down. What percentage of us are
[23:24] Speaker 2: worried about a negative thirty five percent bear market?
[23:27] Speaker 13: So if you look at the Conference Board survey that
[23:29] Speaker 13: just came out, they actually have a question that gets
[23:32] Speaker 13: very very little attention, But I like it a lot,
[23:34] Speaker 13: and it's on stock market optimism going forward. I forget
[23:37] Speaker 13: the exact number, but it's still extremely elevated, and it
[23:40] Speaker 13: actually ticked up just a little bit. It hit a
[23:42] Speaker 13: new high in late twenty twenty four, and it's been
[23:44] Speaker 13: kind of hovering around that.
[23:45] Speaker 8: Level ever since.
[23:47] Speaker 13: So when we look at that as a gauge of
[23:49] Speaker 13: retail investors, we think that they're not too worried. Now,
[23:52] Speaker 13: if I talk about institutional investors, you know, we might
[23:55] Speaker 13: look at something say the CFTC futures positioning data, which
[23:59] Speaker 13: is easy. You had seen sort of one standard deviation
[24:02] Speaker 13: above the long term average. Basically, that's you know, complicated
[24:05] Speaker 13: speak for saying people were feeling good and well positioned,
[24:07] Speaker 13: but not crazy, not euphoric, and that's easing down.
[24:10] Speaker 8: It doesn't look under owned.
[24:11] Speaker 13: And I would say there's some nervousness creeping into the
[24:13] Speaker 13: institutional community, but I don't think there's panic there either.
[24:16] Speaker 5: So use of institutional investors, but I know that one
[24:19] Speaker 5: thing that comes up a lot in those conversations is
[24:21] Speaker 5: the role of the retail investor and how they influence
[24:24] Speaker 5: the market. Overall, retail stock ownership, I think is at
[24:27] Speaker 5: a twenty year high. How do you think that's changed
[24:29] Speaker 5: a stock market over your time covering it?
[24:31] Speaker 13: You know, it's interesting because when I started, I started
[24:34] Speaker 13: back in two thousand at a different firm, and I
[24:37] Speaker 13: remember being taught, you know, by a very seasoned, you know,
[24:40] Speaker 13: extremely bright strategist that you would look at the retail
[24:43] Speaker 13: fund flow data and do whatever the opposite was right.
[24:45] Speaker 13: So if they were all buying, you'd sell, and if
[24:47] Speaker 13: they were all selling, you'd buy. And I don't think
[24:49] Speaker 13: it quite works that way anymore. I do think retail
[24:52] Speaker 13: investors have gotten much more sophisticated in their understanding of
[24:55] Speaker 13: financial markets. There's a lot of innovation in the industry
[24:58] Speaker 13: that's helping people out, you know.
[25:00] Speaker 2: And I, you know, we.
[25:01] Speaker 8: Were talking earlier about how I travel.
[25:03] Speaker 13: I run into people in airports, I run into, you know,
[25:05] Speaker 13: people who are driving me places, and you know, and
[25:08] Speaker 13: you know, talk to people on airplanes and people sometimes,
[25:11] Speaker 13: you know, will start talking about the stock market and
[25:13] Speaker 13: they know a lot. And I think that's very different
[25:16] Speaker 13: from early on in my career when sort of the
[25:18] Speaker 13: purview of all the intricacies of our industry were really
[25:21] Speaker 13: just limited to the institutional community.
[25:23] Speaker 5: Okay, so it's changed a lot in your twenty plus years,
[25:25] Speaker 5: But is it going to look like Korea? You look
[25:27] Speaker 5: at the Korean stock market and it was had a
[25:29] Speaker 5: bananas week. Great, it was down ten percent on Tuesdays,
[25:33] Speaker 5: sixteen percent overnight. Year to date, it's massively Regail investors
[25:37] Speaker 5: are huge presence there. They love the AI trade. They
[25:40] Speaker 5: love these leverage single stock ets. Is that what the
[25:42] Speaker 5: US stock market is headed towards?
[25:45] Speaker 13: You know, it's hard to say. I don't see that
[25:47] Speaker 13: right now. I feel like we have more guardrails in place.
[25:49] Speaker 13: But the reality is that if you look at sort
[25:52] Speaker 13: of this theme of democratization of the equity market, I mean,
[25:55] Speaker 13: we got a lot of color on that from financial
[25:57] Speaker 13: companies in this reporting season, talking about new and struments
[26:00] Speaker 13: and why they might be doing one thing or another thing.
[26:02] Speaker 13: Did retail want it? Did institutions want it? Was it
[26:05] Speaker 13: something you know they should be doing? You know, sports
[26:08] Speaker 13: right for example? And prediction markets was something we saw
[26:10] Speaker 13: a few companies say we're not going to do, even
[26:13] Speaker 13: though there might be appetite for it.
[26:14] Speaker 8: But I do think.
[26:15] Speaker 13: This trend of getting typical Americans engaged in the stock market,
[26:20] Speaker 13: I don't think that's changing.
[26:21] Speaker 2: What would you do as a retiree? Now the old
[26:25] Speaker 2: rule was take four percent, be happy, move on, maybe
[26:28] Speaker 2: buy an annuity, whatever. What's the RBC advice for someone
[26:33] Speaker 2: with an equity pot and how to manage it? Given
[26:37] Speaker 2: that retirees.
[26:38] Speaker 13: Never die well, I think the first thing you always
[26:40] Speaker 13: do is and this is always my first advice for
[26:42] Speaker 13: peoples work with a financial advisor, and I think even
[26:45] Speaker 13: in my purview as sort of an equity person, you know,
[26:47] Speaker 13: I would want sort of that device that advice on diversification.
[26:50] Speaker 4: By the distance, I think that I.
[26:52] Speaker 13: Know a certain corner of the market very well, and
[26:55] Speaker 13: there's a certain corner of the market I don't know
[26:56] Speaker 13: very well. So I would want some advice frankly to
[26:59] Speaker 13: come in and sort of ballence me out. But I
[27:01] Speaker 13: do think staying diversified is something that just makes sense
[27:04] Speaker 13: and not trying to play the short term, not trying
[27:06] Speaker 13: to play every little twist in turn.
[27:08] Speaker 2: How do you not play the short term? If you're
[27:10] Speaker 2: watching Bloomberg, Surveilance or five of Scars media properties religiously,
[27:16] Speaker 2: but you're supposed to be long term? How do you
[27:18] Speaker 2: do that? In modern media?
[27:19] Speaker 13: This goes back to our tears of fear right and
[27:21] Speaker 13: so typical drawdowns are five to ten percent. Be prepared
[27:24] Speaker 13: for those, and there's always a big test once you
[27:26] Speaker 13: kind of get to nine percent ten percent, are you
[27:28] Speaker 13: going to go lower? And what we tell the institutions,
[27:30] Speaker 13: and I tell this to you know, fas I talk
[27:32] Speaker 13: to as well, is if you don't think that there's
[27:35] Speaker 13: a serious chance of a recession or these days we're
[27:38] Speaker 13: all also talking about interest rate shocks, then you're probably
[27:41] Speaker 13: going to bottom out at ten percent. But if there
[27:42] Speaker 13: is something that's unknown that happens in the market, right
[27:46] Speaker 13: if you looked back at twenty eighteen, we had tariffs
[27:48] Speaker 13: for the first time, we had some concerns about the FED,
[27:50] Speaker 13: we had a twenty percent draw down. We have these
[27:53] Speaker 13: growth scares that can go to like the fifteen to
[27:55] Speaker 13: twenty percent range, But just kind of know what's coming,
[27:57] Speaker 13: be educated ahead of time, be prepared, and don't know
[28:00] Speaker 13: react in the moment. If you don't think that there's
[28:03] Speaker 13: you know, sort of a serious chance of a recession,
[28:04] Speaker 13: and we talked a lot to hedge funds about this
[28:07] Speaker 13: last year around tariffs, then you're probably not going to
[28:09] Speaker 13: have like a twenty five or thirty three percent type
[28:11] Speaker 13: draw down, which is what you see in recessions. Kind
[28:13] Speaker 13: of twenty percent might be the worst.
[28:15] Speaker 8: And so it's really.
[28:16] Speaker 13: Just being educated and knowing that markets can be volatile
[28:19] Speaker 13: and what do these different levels signify, and just again
[28:22] Speaker 13: not overreacting in the moment.
[28:23] Speaker 5: Individual investors seem to have mastered the art of buying
[28:26] Speaker 5: the dip.
[28:26] Speaker 4: They come in.
[28:27] Speaker 5: They are kind of you know, they don't get rattled
[28:29] Speaker 5: by stock market declientes. They come in there like I'm buying,
[28:31] Speaker 5: I'm buying. Have institutional investors looked at that and kind
[28:34] Speaker 5: of adjusted their behavior as a result.
[28:36] Speaker 13: One thing we've noticed is that there are certain valuation gauges.
[28:39] Speaker 13: You know, we can look at pees and where they
[28:41] Speaker 13: typically bottom out at, and on certain charts they make
[28:43] Speaker 13: higher and higher lows. And I think that's because of
[28:45] Speaker 13: these dip buyers coming in. So you do have to
[28:47] Speaker 13: have it in the back of your mind.
[28:49] Speaker 2: Well, you just said I disagree with not you, but
[28:52] Speaker 2: I disagree with the zeitgeist that we've learned something new.
[28:55] Speaker 2: We haven't woken up on a Monday being down twenty
[28:59] Speaker 2: two percent or being done.
[29:00] Speaker 4: Thirty four We're going to let that hap.
[29:03] Speaker 2: Well, that may be, that's an Eric belt Shoots question.
[29:05] Speaker 2: But Laurie, I think we don't have a collective memory
[29:08] Speaker 2: of a massive drawdown anymore, and our behavior will change
[29:12] Speaker 2: if we get that.
[29:13] Speaker 8: Well, you know, I take your point.
[29:15] Speaker 13: We have a lot of conversations, you know, I would
[29:18] Speaker 13: just say in the financial community about when did you start?
[29:20] Speaker 13: So I started in two thousand. I didn't see the
[29:22] Speaker 13: tech bubble melt up, but I certainly saw the other side.
[29:24] Speaker 2: We enjoyed two thousand and eight nine.
[29:26] Speaker 8: Yeah, I lived through it, right, I remember and enjoyed.
[29:28] Speaker 4: You lived through it.
[29:29] Speaker 8: I lived through it.
[29:30] Speaker 13: I remember being in conference rooms, I want to say,
[29:32] Speaker 13: like in two thousand and six, with mice running across
[29:34] Speaker 13: the floor, and home building companies talked to packed rooms,
[29:37] Speaker 13: you know, and you couldn't you were violating some fire code,
[29:40] Speaker 13: right because there were too many people. And so I
[29:42] Speaker 13: remember the height of that bubble, you know, very clearly.
[29:45] Speaker 8: And I do think there's a lot of people.
[29:47] Speaker 13: In the institutional community who weren't around for the GFC, right,
[29:50] Speaker 13: who weren't around for the tech bubble. So I take
[29:52] Speaker 13: Tom's point. But remember, we did have a massive draw
[29:55] Speaker 13: down around COVID, which was a typical recession type draw down,
[29:59] Speaker 13: and it was it was interesting. I mean, we we've
[30:02] Speaker 13: done a lot of work around that, especially, you know,
[30:05] Speaker 13: as kind of the Middle East situation has flared back up.
[30:07] Speaker 13: And I reminded people, I said, you know, we did
[30:09] Speaker 13: a recession's worth of decline in about a month. Good,
[30:13] Speaker 13: and you know, and I think people have kind of
[30:15] Speaker 13: forgotten about that one. But you can see fair how
[30:18] Speaker 13: fast and steep and and you know, difficult frankly, you
[30:22] Speaker 13: know those kind of decline. Twenty two wasn't pretty either. No, No,
[30:25] Speaker 13: that was a that was a weird one. We've had
[30:27] Speaker 13: trouble classifying that one, you know, and sort of our tears.
[30:30] Speaker 13: We think what essentially happened was the misery index spiked
[30:34] Speaker 13: because of inflation. It felt like a recession.
[30:36] Speaker 8: It wasn't.
[30:37] Speaker 13: You got a recessionary type draw down in the market,
[30:39] Speaker 13: and you also had a massive interest rate shock, just
[30:42] Speaker 13: expectations of FED hikes piled in, and you threw a
[30:45] Speaker 13: war on top of that.
[30:46] Speaker 8: Right, it was.
[30:47] Speaker 13: It was a little bit worse than a growth scared
[30:49] Speaker 13: not quite as bad as a recession, but pretty darn close.
[30:51] Speaker 2: Lurie, thank you so much. Really appreciate it coming in
[30:53] Speaker 2: on a Friday, I really really appreciated. RBC Capital Marcus
[30:57] Speaker 2: powerpoints of Squize. Get it from RBC the capital markets.
[31:05] Speaker 5: All right, we're looking at shares of Apple down as
[31:08] Speaker 5: much as eleven percent right now after component shortages, weight
[31:12] Speaker 5: on the company's sales forecast. A letter Popina of Bloomberg
[31:15] Speaker 5: News joins us now to discuss when we're talking about shortages,
[31:18] Speaker 5: it's really the memory chips, and we've seen prices for
[31:21] Speaker 5: those things spike up and a company like Apple needs
[31:24] Speaker 5: to contend with it.
[31:25] Speaker 14: Yeah, CEO Team Cook said that memory chip shortage is
[31:28] Speaker 14: similar to one hundred y of flots. The demand is
[31:30] Speaker 14: so high and the shortage is so widespread that in
[31:34] Speaker 14: the common quarter there will be more shortages and some
[31:38] Speaker 14: weaight times for some of the key products includeing MacBook Mini,
[31:42] Speaker 14: so that may weigh on the revenue outlook. Now we're
[31:45] Speaker 14: talking about the outlook for the quarter ending in September.
[31:48] Speaker 14: This is the quarter when the key iPhones usually go out.
[31:51] Speaker 14: This is the quarter when you know, mom and pop
[31:54] Speaker 14: investors buy apples and then your iPhones for their kids
[31:57] Speaker 14: they go back to school. So that's supply shortage is
[32:00] Speaker 14: going to weigh on sentiment. And this is what is
[32:03] Speaker 14: John and shares lower today.
[32:04] Speaker 4: Okay.
[32:04] Speaker 5: Apple also came out with this new innovative way of
[32:07] Speaker 5: funding your iPhone purchases, or maybe purchase is the wrong word.
[32:10] Speaker 5: You're now going to be able to lease your iPhone
[32:12] Speaker 5: the way that you can lease a car.
[32:14] Speaker 14: Yeah, that's pretty much the case, and not just your Apple.
[32:18] Speaker 14: You can you lease your iPad. You can lease your
[32:20] Speaker 14: MacBook Medium, MacBook Pro for up to three years, and
[32:23] Speaker 14: then after that point you can decide if you want
[32:25] Speaker 14: to keep it, if you want to return it, if
[32:27] Speaker 14: you want to just upgrade to a new cycle.
[32:29] Speaker 4: So that's pretty.
[32:30] Speaker 14: Much, you know, Apple's way of saying, listen, just keep
[32:33] Speaker 14: staying with us forever and keep upgrading.
[32:35] Speaker 2: But from a consumption standpoint, somebody had this on Twitter
[32:38] Speaker 2: this week where every result of gee, they don't have
[32:40] Speaker 2: the chips, so this supply. This the reason they don't
[32:42] Speaker 2: have the supply is they have massive demand. Do we
[32:46] Speaker 2: see within our reporting, Mark German and you and everybody else,
[32:49] Speaker 2: do we see any way on a unit basis that
[32:53] Speaker 2: they're stumbling.
[32:53] Speaker 4: They're not They're not really stumbling.
[32:55] Speaker 14: I mean, China remains a weak spot, but it's always
[32:58] Speaker 14: been a week spot. So we cannot demand any strong
[33:00] Speaker 14: numbers out of China. But you know, when you look
[33:03] Speaker 14: at the sales of the wearables they missed, they were
[33:06] Speaker 14: in line with expectations.
[33:07] Speaker 2: I mean, the scarlet needs a blush neo, right, I
[33:11] Speaker 2: mean that's really what this is.
[33:13] Speaker 14: If you look at the sales for MacBooks, they smashed
[33:15] Speaker 14: expectations by landslide. You know, so the iPhone expectations also
[33:19] Speaker 14: wear a bob estimate. So across the board people kept buying.
[33:23] Speaker 14: So consumers, your retail traders, they had nothing to do
[33:26] Speaker 14: with that week forecast.
[33:27] Speaker 8: It's more of a supply.
[33:29] Speaker 14: Can strained issue rather than a demand issue.
[33:31] Speaker 5: Apple has had to raise prices as well. And you
[33:34] Speaker 5: wonder how much these new foldable iPhones that they're going
[33:36] Speaker 5: to release are going to end up costing.
[33:38] Speaker 2: Why do I need a foldable iPhone?
[33:40] Speaker 4: That's what they can fit it into your pocket, won't
[33:41] Speaker 4: fall out. It's an extble. Your pockets are bigger, mind than.
[33:45] Speaker 2: The Neo came out as a joke and it's the
[33:47] Speaker 2: hottest thing going right. Yeah, it's talk about Bloomberg money.
[33:50] Speaker 2: Everybody watching this show and personal finance. A kid, I
[33:53] Speaker 2: need a Blue I guess I like my Air, but
[33:57] Speaker 2: I really need a Neo to go back.
[33:58] Speaker 4: Well, the parents want to pay for the new not there?
[34:01] Speaker 5: Well something you is a low cost model, so that's
[34:03] Speaker 5: start of it appeal, that's the selling point. Thank you
[34:06] Speaker 5: so much, Elena Popina of Bloomberg News. All Right, and
[34:10] Speaker 5: you know it's Friday, it's Bloomberg money. So we always
[34:12] Speaker 5: talk about books. I know that I've got a huge
[34:14] Speaker 5: reading list on my phone that I got to get to.
[34:17] Speaker 5: Do you read books or do you like use the Kindle?
[34:20] Speaker 2: No? No, I tried the Kindle, and I've tried other things,
[34:23] Speaker 2: and now I'm very much back to just reading hardcover
[34:25] Speaker 2: books only though old well yeah sometimes I can't, but
[34:29] Speaker 2: you know, old school books. How about the muster read
[34:31] Speaker 2: books that we've got right now? Yours my mind is
[34:36] Speaker 2: a foundation read if you care about Elena Poppina's technology.
[34:41] Speaker 2: Chip War is my book of the year two years ago.
[34:43] Speaker 2: Chris Miller's out of Tufts up in Boston, and this
[34:47] Speaker 2: is absolutely, absolutely the seminal read on the history of semiconductors,
[34:53] Speaker 2: and he just captures beautifully the turf wars, whether it's
[34:57] Speaker 2: obviously Silicon Valley or Charles River in Boston, or even
[35:03] Speaker 2: over to the Netherlands at ASML or Timewan. Excuse me,
[35:07] Speaker 2: the timeline story is actually the invention of Taiwan semiconductors
[35:11] Speaker 2: may be the most emotional story in the book.
[35:14] Speaker 5: Yeah, I can't wait to get to that point. I'm
[35:16] Speaker 5: really excited about it. My book kind of ties into that.
[35:18] Speaker 5: It's How to Rule the World and Education and Power
[35:20] Speaker 5: at Stanford University by THEO Baker.
[35:23] Speaker 4: This book is a lot of things, oh yeah.
[35:25] Speaker 5: But what I enjoyed the most is the picture that
[35:26] Speaker 5: it paints of Stanford for super bright and ambitious kids.
[35:30] Speaker 5: Stanford's a place where the coding or hacking clubs they
[35:32] Speaker 5: join have access to slush funds provided by tech companies,
[35:35] Speaker 5: so they can party on yachts and socialized with billionaires.
[35:38] Speaker 5: Vcs hang out there on campus at the cafe I
[35:41] Speaker 5: think it's called the Koupa Cafe to scout future talent,
[35:45] Speaker 5: which leads to offers of funding their startups later on
[35:49] Speaker 5: for billions of dollars with a non doct I.
[35:51] Speaker 2: I take issue with the romance of this and that
[35:54] Speaker 2: mostly what the kids do is work. They're particularly undergraduate.
[35:58] Speaker 2: They're working on first principle heavyweight mathematics, their operational research.
[36:03] Speaker 2: I mean, so much of this is Michael Spence, the
[36:05] Speaker 2: laureates invention, but I think it's underplayed how much the
[36:11] Speaker 2: bright kids at these bright schools on the West coast,
[36:14] Speaker 2: Harry Mudd, Caltech, Stanford, I'd mentioned Cornell on the East coast. Frankly,
[36:18] Speaker 2: the kids work, I mean Scarlett slid through just in.
[36:21] Speaker 4: Case there is that.
[36:23] Speaker 5: But the ones that get farther are the ones who
[36:25] Speaker 5: are hobnobbing with the bill ups. You know, they're getting
[36:28] Speaker 5: the early look deals with those guys.
[36:31] Speaker 2: I like hobnobbing better than new.
[36:34] Speaker 4: Sounds a little bit like, you know, friendlier.
[36:35] Speaker 8: Right all right.
[36:36] Speaker 5: For the latest reviews and recommendations from Bloomberg, be sure
[36:39] Speaker 5: to subscribe to the on Books newsletter.
[36:46] Speaker 2: Bloomberg Money. From New York City on a Friday, summer Friday,
[36:49] Speaker 2: the streets are just it's a summer Friday. It's easier
[36:52] Speaker 2: to get to work and get home.
[36:53] Speaker 4: Yeah, there's no traffic whatsoever.
[36:55] Speaker 2: There's no question about it. So I guess they're gonna
[36:58] Speaker 2: look ahead, he or can we look.
[37:00] Speaker 15: Yeah, let's do that to this hour, right, Yeah, this hour.
[37:03] Speaker 15: Richard claar Go's with the vice chairman. We ripped it
[37:05] Speaker 15: up and did a much you know, Federal Reserve conversation.
[37:09] Speaker 15: And the excitement of that was Annawon's work of Bloomberg economics.
[37:13] Speaker 2: She was on fire. Here is Richard Clarida.
[37:18] Speaker 10: He left open the possibility that the task forces could
[37:21] Speaker 10: recommend other measures. They could go to an average instead
[37:24] Speaker 10: of picking one inducts, they could look at CPIPPI.
[37:27] Speaker 9: There are a lot of things they could do. But
[37:29] Speaker 9: I think Anna.
[37:30] Speaker 10: As usual raised is an important point is that an
[37:33] Speaker 10: inflation targeting central bank needs to be clear about what
[37:36] Speaker 10: it is it's targeting. It can and may evolve, and
[37:39] Speaker 10: so I think that will be important.
[37:41] Speaker 2: And I published this morning as well. Look for that
[37:43] Speaker 2: at Bloomberg Economics across the weekend and what our videos
[37:47] Speaker 2: will be out as well.
[37:48] Speaker 5: All right, it was great to have Richard Clarida here
[37:50] Speaker 5: with us, but it is Fridays. We need to look
[37:52] Speaker 5: ahead to the weekend and next week as well. This
[37:55] Speaker 5: Saturday and Sunday, BTS will be holding their first headline
[37:58] Speaker 5: performance concert in New York since.
[38:00] Speaker 2: They got to be sold mental soldo.
[38:03] Speaker 4: I was checking on stubhop.
[38:04] Speaker 5: You can still get stage right tickets for eighteen hundred
[38:06] Speaker 5: dollars for repair each and then the nosebleed is at
[38:10] Speaker 5: one hundred and seventy six, so that's a huge spread.
[38:13] Speaker 5: But I thought maybe you would be more interested in Rush.
[38:16] Speaker 2: Is that right?
[38:16] Speaker 9: Yeah?
[38:16] Speaker 5: They have a reunion tour. They're now halfway through their
[38:18] Speaker 5: four night residency. At MSG. The og band members Getty
[38:22] Speaker 5: Lee and Alexleisen will be their minus drummer Neil Port,
[38:25] Speaker 5: who passed away sadly in twenty twenty.
[38:27] Speaker 2: They did a bang up job on this. They went
[38:29] Speaker 2: out and they just really looked for a new drummer,
[38:31] Speaker 2: which is incredibly hard for any bands. They will all
[38:35] Speaker 2: say that Anakans is from Germany and she's like legit
[38:39] Speaker 2: classical rock train. Jeff Percaro was their huge hero from Toto,
[38:44] Speaker 2: and the answer is she's the real deal and literally
[38:47] Speaker 2: ran an academic department at the university.
[38:49] Speaker 4: I don't know that it's a woman of many talents.
[38:52] Speaker 2: I would suggest is a non Rush fanatic. It's been
[38:55] Speaker 2: hugely successful.
[38:56] Speaker 4: All right.
[38:56] Speaker 5: Well, they are playing at MSG again, this four night
[39:01] Speaker 5: concert residency that they're calling it. Also, of course next
[39:04] Speaker 5: week we've got the job support for the month of
[39:06] Speaker 5: July and the CONSENSU assessment right now is for eighty
[39:08] Speaker 5: eight thousand jobs added in the month of July versus
[39:11] Speaker 5: fifty seven thousand in July.
[39:12] Speaker 2: I'm still not used to the new jobs number, with
[39:16] Speaker 2: immigration being under one hundred thousand. To me, eighty eight
[39:19] Speaker 2: thousands terrible, and yet the one would tell you that's
[39:22] Speaker 2: actually pretty well.
[39:23] Speaker 5: You'll get the unemployment rate, it's going to stay unchanged
[39:25] Speaker 5: at four point two percent, and our generally earning is
[39:28] Speaker 5: pretty much staying in line.
[39:29] Speaker 2: And that's brilliant that you do that through August through September.
[39:32] Speaker 2: For Bloomberg Money, the inflation adjusted wage got to be
[39:36] Speaker 2: front and center as well.
[39:37] Speaker 4: And don't forget earnings.
[39:38] Speaker 5: SpaceX reports its first set of results as a listed
[39:41] Speaker 5: company that's worked out so far.
[39:44] Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Money podcast, bringing you a smart
[39:48] Speaker 2: look at the forces shaping your financial life. I'm Tom
[39:52] Speaker 2: Keen with Scarlet Food. You can watch the show live
[39:55] Speaker 2: I'm Bloomberg TV every Friday at noon Law Street Time.
[39:59] Speaker 2: Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen,
[40:04] Speaker 2: and is always on the Bloomberg terminal in the Bloomberg
[40:07] Speaker 2: Business app

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