# 2026 Win Totals Are Out and The Verballerhood Has Thoughts: Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, and Beyond

An episode of [The Solid Verbal College Football Show](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/270037732), 17 Mar 2026, 1 h 07 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/21437ee1-47d9-4b16-8696-b30d011a2c26/a24ced67-3186-4439-938f-b40f01505928/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=51c7e0eb-425c-4d93-b5a8-b30d011a2c46

Last week, win totals dropped for every Power 4 team. We did the responsible thing and polled the Verballerhood for it's initial response. In this episode, and hundreds of votes later, we broke down the totals that the community found most interesting and picked the side of the bet that we'd back now... in mid-March. Timecodes: 0:00 - Intro 4:02 - Let's Play Over/Under 6:47 - Alabama 15:22 - Ohio State 23:30 - Texas Tech 29:32 - Clemson 35:02 - Florida State 36:36 - Ole Miss 44:11 - Penn State 51:30 - BYU 57:56 - LSU Support the show!: https://www.patreon.com/solidverbal See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: Welcome to the solid verbal ill.
[0:05] Speaker 2: For me, I'm a man, I'm forty. I've heard so
[0:08] Speaker 2: many players say, well, I want to be happy. You
[0:10] Speaker 2: want to be happy for a day? Edith Steak, is
[0:13] Speaker 2: that woo woom?
[0:14] Speaker 1: And Dan and Tie Dan, Rubertstein Top, Oh, the morning
[0:21] Speaker 1: to you. It is Saint Patrick's day, my good friend,
[0:26] Speaker 1: it is.
[0:26] Speaker 2: How are you? I? I'm pretty good? I uh. I
[0:29] Speaker 2: was very thematic with this episode for the last I
[0:34] Speaker 2: don't my like my life was oddly thematic for the
[0:37] Speaker 2: last thirty minutes or so I was. I was getting
[0:41] Speaker 2: into the shower immediately stub my toe. Okay, okay, I
[0:47] Speaker 2: don't know what what toe. It's called the toe next
[0:50] Speaker 2: to the big toad. We have a name for toes
[0:53] Speaker 2: in the way that we name fingers.
[0:54] Speaker 1: I don't know. That's just like your big middle to
[0:57] Speaker 1: that's like the longest one sometimes.
[0:58] Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the feet stuff is more of your thing.
[1:01] Speaker 2: So I just sort of defer to your expertise this.
[1:06] Speaker 2: But I was preparing for this episode looking at schedules
[1:09] Speaker 2: and realized that so much of our conversation. Again not
[1:13] Speaker 2: deferring to you too aggressively on the feed stuff here,
[1:16] Speaker 2: but you think about the language involved with wind totals
[1:20] Speaker 2: and looking at schedules, and so much of it involves feet.
[1:25] Speaker 2: You're like, where are they going to stub their toe?
[1:27] Speaker 2: Where are they going to trip up? It's the off season.
[1:29] Speaker 2: We're just trying to figure out our roster. Put one
[1:31] Speaker 2: foot in front of the up front of the other.
[1:33] Speaker 2: You gotta walk before you run, right, And no, I'm
[1:36] Speaker 2: not transferring. I am ten toes down right. There's so
[1:40] Speaker 2: much of that language I didn't even think about as
[1:43] Speaker 2: I stubbed my toe. I think it's just bruised. We're
[1:46] Speaker 2: not dealing with anything serious here. But then I just
[1:51] Speaker 2: randomly put on a mix on Spotify as it was
[1:54] Speaker 2: getting dressed and getting ready tie, and it was like
[1:58] Speaker 2: serendipitous talking about win totals here, Ty, because there's basically
[2:02] Speaker 2: two things at play. When we're having this conversation, I
[2:05] Speaker 2: feel like you're about to name a Saturday. Well, it
[2:09] Speaker 2: is alliterative to the words Saturday. It is called football. Literally.
[2:14] Speaker 2: I know it's literally football. But when I'm going somewhere
[2:16] Speaker 2: else with this is what we're talking about is a
[2:20] Speaker 2: sublime problem. More specifically, these coaches, these fans of programs,
[2:26] Speaker 2: these players are both looking internally and externally when we're
[2:30] Speaker 2: looking at win totals and they're figuring out what I
[2:33] Speaker 2: got on the roster and what I got on the schedule, right,
[2:38] Speaker 2: and then you even look at the lyrics to what
[2:40] Speaker 2: I got ty, Yeah, it's we're looking for reasons, reasons
[2:45] Speaker 2: things went wrong. Got to find a reason why my
[2:48] Speaker 2: money's all gone? Tie, what is happening?
[2:53] Speaker 1: The reason your money's all gone is because you bet
[2:55] Speaker 1: with me? Totally.
[2:58] Speaker 2: But like, that's what we're doing right now, and I
[3:00] Speaker 2: couldn't be happier to have this conversation now that I mean,
[3:03] Speaker 2: I don't know who released these wind totals, but I
[3:05] Speaker 2: like doing this episode. But I don't know. The universe
[3:08] Speaker 2: is really like shoving a magnifying glass down upon me.
[3:12] Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm ready.
[3:13] Speaker 1: Well, that preamble was a bit of a journey, but
[3:14] Speaker 1: I appreciate it, of course. And more to the point,
[3:17] Speaker 1: that is why people tune in here to the solid verbal,
[3:21] Speaker 1: especially now in the offseason. If you are just finding
[3:23] Speaker 1: us for the first time, Hello, welcome, How are you
[3:26] Speaker 1: please hit follow? Please hit subscribe. Dan Rubinstein over there
[3:31] Speaker 1: is our creative firecracker. Yes, let's say he's the one
[3:35] Speaker 1: who brings up the feet stuff and actually prefers it
[3:38] Speaker 1: to be honest. But that's a separate conversation. That's as
[3:41] Speaker 1: us on our Thursday boat.
[3:43] Speaker 2: I should have pulled a Rex Ryan sound is what
[3:45] Speaker 2: I should have done, but I just didn't have the foresight.
[3:48] Speaker 1: Verbalers dot Com is where you can go if you
[3:50] Speaker 1: want these episodes without the ads, and if you want
[3:52] Speaker 1: to further support what Dan and I do. It's the
[3:55] Speaker 1: way you can directly support everything we got going on
[3:58] Speaker 1: over here at sidid verbal HQ without further ado. Today's
[4:04] Speaker 1: episode is this. If you pay attention to any of
[4:09] Speaker 1: the college football news out there, and you know that
[4:11] Speaker 1: we do be it on social media out there on Reddit,
[4:15] Speaker 1: scouring the blogs, whatever you're into. I was waiting for
[4:20] Speaker 1: this moment last week when somebody was going to release
[4:24] Speaker 1: their college football win totals for the twenty twenty sixth season.
[4:28] Speaker 1: You know, we're kind of in that weird spot right now,
[4:31] Speaker 1: that gray area of the offseason, because we just got
[4:34] Speaker 1: done with the portal, with the recruiting, with the coaching carousels, obviously,
[4:39] Speaker 1: with the games. Spring football is very much on the horizon.
[4:44] Speaker 2: It started for a bunch of teams.
[4:46] Speaker 1: It started for a bunch of teams. Right, We're gonna
[4:49] Speaker 1: get to this point, I think, very soon where we're
[4:51] Speaker 1: officially in what we would call preseason mode. We're not
[4:54] Speaker 1: there yet, but usually when you get win totals dropping
[4:58] Speaker 1: and people talking about the numbers that they see, this
[5:01] Speaker 1: is when we start venturing a little bit deeper into
[5:04] Speaker 1: preseason mode. So, got some team previews here that I've
[5:08] Speaker 1: been working on. I know that you've been working on
[5:09] Speaker 1: as well. We've got win total numbers that were dropped
[5:13] Speaker 1: from our friends out at FanDuel. Not a sponsor was
[5:16] Speaker 1: a sponsor back in the days?
[5:17] Speaker 2: Are they our friends?
[5:19] Speaker 1: Are you?
[5:19] Speaker 2: Do you know a single person at FanDuel? You can't
[5:22] Speaker 2: just be friends with somebody blindly tied. Oh we're not
[5:25] Speaker 2: We're not not friends, is what I'm saying. We can
[5:28] Speaker 2: be bought. Everybody has a price. We are acquaintances at best.
[5:34] Speaker 1: They did sponsor us once way back when.
[5:36] Speaker 2: Okay, great, that doesn't mean anything to me. I can't
[5:39] Speaker 2: I can't buy groceries with way back when.
[5:41] Speaker 1: Dollars advertising at solidverbal dot com. In case you are
[5:45] Speaker 1: listening and interested, So here's what we did. I took
[5:48] Speaker 1: a collection of these lines that I found interesting. I
[5:52] Speaker 1: put them in a poll. I sent it out to
[5:54] Speaker 1: the entirety of the verbllar. We had one hundred upon
[5:56] Speaker 1: hundreds upon hundreds of replies to this. People go to
[5:59] Speaker 1: this form, vote over under, and then at the bottom,
[6:03] Speaker 1: give us a little blurb on which line you found
[6:05] Speaker 1: most interesting and why. I then took that. I kind
[6:10] Speaker 1: of collected everything. We have twelve lines. We'll see how
[6:14] Speaker 1: many we can get through over the next fifty minutes
[6:17] Speaker 1: or so, and we're gonna go through them. We're gonna
[6:20] Speaker 1: talk through what the community had to say, why the
[6:22] Speaker 1: community found it interesting, and I think we're gonna hopefully
[6:26] Speaker 1: give our at least knee jerk analysis here to why
[6:30] Speaker 1: we feel one way or another regarding these teams, specifically
[6:35] Speaker 1: with these points spreads as the frame or win totals.
[6:38] Speaker 1: Excuse me, you don't have points spreads yet. I guess
[6:39] Speaker 1: we do for some games.
[6:40] Speaker 2: But there's a few.
[6:41] Speaker 1: Yeah, win totals, and how we feel, why we feel
[6:45] Speaker 1: one way or another. Agree, give me that computer sound,
[6:49] Speaker 1: Dan Rubinstein overwhelmingly Alabama at eight and one half win
[7:00] Speaker 1: was the most interesting from our community. A couple comments here, quote,
[7:07] Speaker 1: Alabama hasn't been under eight and a half in nineteen years.
[7:11] Speaker 1: If it happens, things are going to get crazy. Also,
[7:15] Speaker 1: I feel like I've heard about the death of Alabama
[7:18] Speaker 1: many times before, So that's somebody clearly not buying it.
[7:22] Speaker 1: I can tell you. Overwhelmingly, the replies here are like
[7:27] Speaker 1: ninety five percent in favor of Alabama hitting that over
[7:32] Speaker 1: eight and one half. Dan, Yeah, what was your reaction
[7:36] Speaker 1: to seeing eight and a half? I know mine, but
[7:38] Speaker 1: what was yours.
[7:40] Speaker 2: It's a surprising number given I don't think Nick Saban
[7:43] Speaker 2: finished outside of the top ten since when when, Like
[7:48] Speaker 2: I think it was he finished number ten in twenty ten,
[7:51] Speaker 2: and Kylen Deibor has finished seventeen to nine in his
[7:55] Speaker 2: two seasons. It's an impossible thing to compare against. Like
[8:00] Speaker 2: it's like Alabama hasn't fit like no, no, no, Nick
[8:03] Speaker 2: Saban's Alabama, And so I think it's a little bit misleading.
[8:07] Speaker 2: The number is crazy to think about, but there is
[8:09] Speaker 2: so much new with Alabama on both sides of the ball,
[8:12] Speaker 2: and some pretty big questions about where both sides of
[8:16] Speaker 2: the ball are going. I mean, there's a good amount
[8:18] Speaker 2: of returning talent on both sides as well to feel confident,
[8:21] Speaker 2: in which I'm sure we can touch on. Look, if
[8:25] Speaker 2: Alabama is the clear more talented and better team than
[8:31] Speaker 2: their schedule of twelve games, there's a limited number of
[8:36] Speaker 2: trip up points. Just because you're more talented, just because
[8:38] Speaker 2: your better coach doesn't mean you're winning every game. The
[8:42] Speaker 2: choke points are limited. They should absolutely start the season
[8:45] Speaker 2: five and zero, right.
[8:47] Speaker 1: Yeah, their first five games. I've got the schedule in
[8:50] Speaker 1: front of me here. First five games are East Carolina, Kentucky,
[8:53] Speaker 1: Florida State, South Carolina, and Mississippi State. So yeah, on paper,
[8:57] Speaker 1: that looks okay. The only thing that I would say
[8:59] Speaker 1: is this Kentucky week two on the road. We have
[9:04] Speaker 1: no concept for what Kentucky's going to be with the
[9:06] Speaker 1: new coach, a bunch of new players, obviously a new quarterback.
[9:09] Speaker 1: I'm not expecting them to knock off Alabama, but that one,
[9:14] Speaker 1: to me gives me a little bit of pause. The
[9:15] Speaker 1: South Carolina game at home is at least interesting, if
[9:20] Speaker 1: only because it's a week after Florida State, which I
[9:22] Speaker 1: expect Alabama will come loaded for bear. That one's at home.
[9:26] Speaker 1: That's a revenge spot. Remember, Florida State one, that one
[9:28] Speaker 1: a year ago, but a week after that South Carolina.
[9:31] Speaker 1: South Carolina can get some of the other parts in order.
[9:34] Speaker 1: Remember last year my thing with South Carolina and I
[9:37] Speaker 1: like the talent that they had on hand, It just
[9:40] Speaker 1: wasn't a complete team. There were a bunch of holes.
[9:42] Speaker 1: We knew what they were. Those holes definitely played out
[9:44] Speaker 1: throughout the course of the season. If they can get
[9:46] Speaker 1: some of that working, I think this season, if they
[9:49] Speaker 1: can kind of patch some of that stuff up, then
[9:51] Speaker 1: maybe it's a different conversation that we know. They bring
[9:53] Speaker 1: back Lenoris the Creator, Dylan Stewart, some others, so they
[9:57] Speaker 1: still have talent on that team. Again, that game is
[9:59] Speaker 1: in Uscaluca though, So yeah, long story short, I am
[10:03] Speaker 1: expecting a five and no start as well. But that's
[10:05] Speaker 1: when things get interesting, right Georgia, Tennessee A and M
[10:09] Speaker 1: back to back to back.
[10:10] Speaker 2: And absolutely worrisome given emotions in those games, given how
[10:14] Speaker 2: talented most if not all, of those teams are when
[10:17] Speaker 2: they're teams with their own questions. More specifically, I guess Tennessee,
[10:21] Speaker 2: but if Alabama is able to develop a quarterback in
[10:25] Speaker 2: either what Kilan Russell or Austin Mack. And what we've
[10:29] Speaker 2: seen from Kaylen to Boer teams is that essentially, aside
[10:33] Speaker 2: from Jalen Milroe who had no time basically to learn
[10:38] Speaker 2: the Debor system. And now this is year two of
[10:40] Speaker 2: Ryan Grubb at Alabama and they make the move away
[10:42] Speaker 2: from Nick Sheridan who had been with Debor for a while.
[10:46] Speaker 2: Quarterbacks are really good playing for Kaylen de Boor the
[10:49] Speaker 2: back half of ty Simpson's year. I think a lot
[10:52] Speaker 2: of that was, you know, not on him, but certainly
[10:55] Speaker 2: some of it was. It was just an inconsistent offensive
[10:58] Speaker 2: performance all around from Alabama. Look at the back half
[11:00] Speaker 2: of the season, some close escapes, whatever. I think, if
[11:05] Speaker 2: one of those quarterbacks happens to be really good, then
[11:09] Speaker 2: the over is an easy call. Yeah, because we know
[11:12] Speaker 2: they have to be able to run the ball better
[11:14] Speaker 2: than where they were last year. They know their marching
[11:18] Speaker 2: orders like it would and I'd know Washington's team with
[11:21] Speaker 2: Kaalin Debor wasn't exactly known for running the ball in
[11:23] Speaker 2: a dominant way, but when they needed to, they could,
[11:26] Speaker 2: especially near.
[11:26] Speaker 1: The end, they could. That wasn't what they were known for.
[11:29] Speaker 2: But yeah, absolutely so a lot of this falls on
[11:32] Speaker 2: the quarterback, which is not any sort of breaking news
[11:35] Speaker 2: way to evaluate a team's upside. I'm I'm leaning towards
[11:41] Speaker 2: the over here just because I just think they're going
[11:44] Speaker 2: to be advantaged. They have enough of their big games
[11:46] Speaker 2: at home. We don't know what a lot of these
[11:49] Speaker 2: teams are going to look like with either new if
[11:50] Speaker 2: not young quarterbacks. When you look at that Vanderbilt game,
[11:53] Speaker 2: I just think the Alabama questions are smaller than a
[11:56] Speaker 2: lot of these teams, and it's just magnified because it's Bama.
[11:59] Speaker 2: I I'm leaning towards the over because I don't think
[12:02] Speaker 2: there's any way they lose a non conference game. I
[12:04] Speaker 2: think they have time to get into a rhythm as
[12:06] Speaker 2: they try to rejigger things on offense and plug in
[12:09] Speaker 2: new guys on defense up front. So I'm I'm fairly
[12:13] Speaker 2: confident in the over here.
[12:15] Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the quarterback thing that goes without saying,
[12:18] Speaker 1: but there's track record there with quarterback, there's a track record,
[12:20] Speaker 1: So I think that hopefully eases some concerns. The offensive
[12:24] Speaker 1: line has some losses, and I think that's a question mark,
[12:29] Speaker 1: especially considering a new quarterback, and b they couldn't run
[12:32] Speaker 1: the ball last year, you know, So, whether it's Daniel Hill,
[12:36] Speaker 1: whether it's EJ. Crowell, the top freshman incoming freshman running
[12:41] Speaker 1: back in the twenty twenty six recruiting cycle, whether it's
[12:45] Speaker 1: somebody else that maybe hopefully steps up for Alabama toting
[12:49] Speaker 1: the football. That to me is what I am most
[12:51] Speaker 1: interested in. I do have some questions about the front
[12:55] Speaker 1: seven as well. I mean, I think the strength of
[12:58] Speaker 1: this defense is probably going to be in the secondary.
[13:02] Speaker 2: Sure, I think all that's irrelevant, though right now I
[13:05] Speaker 2: think it's I think it's all relevant.
[13:06] Speaker 1: I'm just sort of shooting from the hip here with
[13:09] Speaker 1: some I would say broad questions that I have, not
[13:12] Speaker 1: having done the full deep dive of Alabama. But my
[13:16] Speaker 1: reaction was the same as yours and the same as
[13:19] Speaker 1: what people wrote in eight and a half. Feels very
[13:21] Speaker 1: very low to me, even with all these questions, the
[13:24] Speaker 1: thing that we need to remember about Alabama, Cable Devor
[13:28] Speaker 1: is still a damn good coach.
[13:30] Speaker 2: I would that's my assumption, you know what I mean.
[13:32] Speaker 1: Like the quarterback assumption, I think is fair because he's
[13:34] Speaker 1: got a track record. The dudes won everywhere he's been.
[13:38] Speaker 1: I don't think we're suddenly going to see the bottom
[13:41] Speaker 1: fall out on Alabama. On Kaitlin de Borr, We're going
[13:44] Speaker 1: to have an eight and four season. Eight and four
[13:47] Speaker 1: is leaving a lot a lot to injuries, to bad luck,
[13:52] Speaker 1: to guys not working out, and I just feel like
[13:54] Speaker 1: there's too much talent there. So I tend to agree
[13:57] Speaker 1: with our field. Yeah, again, overwhelming, like ninety five percent
[14:01] Speaker 1: of the field decided that they want to go over
[14:04] Speaker 1: that eight and half number for Alabama, and I think
[14:06] Speaker 1: I'm with them.
[14:07] Speaker 2: So the thing that would give me pause and would
[14:10] Speaker 2: make me even consider the under is Alabama performed last
[14:14] Speaker 2: year kind of like an eight and four team and
[14:16] Speaker 2: won close games.
[14:17] Speaker 1: I would agree.
[14:18] Speaker 2: Kaylin Debor has a history of winning those close games.
[14:22] Speaker 2: Right when you look at what he did at Washington,
[14:23] Speaker 2: it's not a huge sample size in terms of the
[14:25] Speaker 2: number of years he's been a head coach at this level. Obviously,
[14:29] Speaker 2: he has a ton of experience as a head coach
[14:31] Speaker 2: at lower levels. And one basically he was like, you
[14:34] Speaker 2: know whatever, sixty six and two at some of those stops,
[14:37] Speaker 2: Like he's a winner, absolutely, But the way that their
[14:41] Speaker 2: offense was or was not particularly efficient in scoring and
[14:45] Speaker 2: their defense was or when it was not efficient in
[14:48] Speaker 2: preventing points. They performed like an eight and four team
[14:52] Speaker 2: if you look at their net points per drive, which
[14:54] Speaker 2: I'd like. Obviously, they were like the thirty fourth best
[14:58] Speaker 2: team in the country. They did not perform like a
[15:02] Speaker 2: playoff team. But they were able to eke out a
[15:04] Speaker 2: win against Missoo, and Missoo was driving for the win,
[15:07] Speaker 2: and eke out a win against South Carolina, and eke
[15:09] Speaker 2: out a win against Auburn, And so you'd rather them
[15:13] Speaker 2: eke than not. But I have paused when you kind
[15:17] Speaker 2: of count on that to get to that nine or
[15:19] Speaker 2: ten number.
[15:20] Speaker 1: That's all so I think we agree. We're an agreement. Here,
[15:22] Speaker 1: give me the computer second most interesting number here from
[15:31] Speaker 1: the people that wrote in, from the way that people voted,
[15:33] Speaker 1: by the way, this one was slightly more lopsided than Alabama.
[15:38] Speaker 1: Let's go to the big ten. Let's talk about Ohio State.
[15:41] Speaker 1: Ohio State's win total Perfandel is nine and a half.
[15:45] Speaker 1: Here's what people had to say. Dog, I've been praying
[15:49] Speaker 1: for Ohio State to lose more than two games for
[15:51] Speaker 1: what feels like two decades, but a line of nine
[15:54] Speaker 1: and a half feels insane. Another person when was the
[15:59] Speaker 1: last time Ohio state one less than ten games? Question mark?
[16:02] Speaker 2: Or fewer than ten games or fewer then.
[16:04] Speaker 1: Yes, another one here. I hate them more than any
[16:08] Speaker 1: team in any sport in all the world but dot
[16:12] Speaker 1: dot dot, and I think that sums it up for
[16:15] Speaker 1: a lot of people. By the way, these were anonymous comments,
[16:18] Speaker 1: did not take an email, did not ask people to
[16:20] Speaker 1: sign up for anything. I just wanted to pull the community.
[16:23] Speaker 1: I wanted people to be unfettered and have full anonymity
[16:27] Speaker 1: to speak their mind. Here nine and a half again,
[16:29] Speaker 1: I had a very similar response to seeing that nine
[16:32] Speaker 1: and a half number. I think the nine and a
[16:34] Speaker 1: half line, though, is coming exclusively from the schedule, because
[16:39] Speaker 1: it is a hard schedule for Ohio, right, and that
[16:41] Speaker 1: above all else. I mean, there are questions that we
[16:44] Speaker 1: could certainly point to. Right. The running game sort of
[16:48] Speaker 1: grew into itself a bit down the stretch last year,
[16:50] Speaker 1: but wasn't what I think they would want it to be.
[16:53] Speaker 1: Hopefully they can fix that, in part by bringing on
[16:56] Speaker 1: Arthur Smith, who's definitely more of a pro style offensive coordinator,
[16:59] Speaker 1: a lot of play action as sort of a track
[17:02] Speaker 1: record for building some physical offenses that should bode well
[17:05] Speaker 1: for a guy like Abo Jackson, who did start to
[17:08] Speaker 1: come on down the stretch last year. But they've got
[17:10] Speaker 1: a line that returns a lot obviously of Julian saying,
[17:13] Speaker 1: there's a lot to like. I think about this offense.
[17:16] Speaker 1: There is talent upon talent upon talent, even on the
[17:19] Speaker 1: defensive side. The defensive side they lose a lot more
[17:22] Speaker 1: a bunch of guys who are going to get picked
[17:23] Speaker 1: very high in the NFL Draft. But they did extend
[17:26] Speaker 1: Matt Patricia. He is now the highest paid defensive coordinator
[17:29] Speaker 1: in college football. You would presume that the talent on hand,
[17:34] Speaker 1: the continuity of the system, even though I think there
[17:36] Speaker 1: are legit questions and I'm not saying Ohio State's going
[17:40] Speaker 1: twelve to zero. Still I see nine and a half
[17:44] Speaker 1: and I sort of shrug. Now. Sure, with that being said,
[17:48] Speaker 1: here are I think the big ones on this schedule,
[17:51] Speaker 1: and I'm probably going to leave out a few Week
[17:54] Speaker 1: two on the road at Texas, the back end of
[17:56] Speaker 1: that home and home. We saw that one last year.
[17:58] Speaker 2: The most difficult conference game of the teams we're looking
[18:03] Speaker 2: at full.
[18:04] Speaker 1: Stop, not even close. Yeah, not even close. That's a
[18:06] Speaker 1: great game at Week two, yep, October third, they're on
[18:10] Speaker 1: the road at Iowa. Okay, who knows, I kind of know.
[18:15] Speaker 1: I kind of know too, but I'm you know, playing courts.
[18:18] Speaker 2: It's a losable game. It doesn't mean they will lose.
[18:20] Speaker 2: It is if you simulate the season one thousand times,
[18:23] Speaker 2: they lose that game more than they do some of
[18:25] Speaker 2: these others. Yeah.
[18:27] Speaker 1: Here is the stretch though, that I am most interested in,
[18:30] Speaker 1: middle of the season. October seventeenth on the road at Indiana,
[18:33] Speaker 1: big game, Yeah, big ten championship rematch. There's a by
[18:38] Speaker 1: sandwiched in between. They come back on Halloween on the
[18:41] Speaker 1: road at usc usc is like a top fifteen caliber
[18:47] Speaker 1: opponent on the road. And then the following week, November
[18:51] Speaker 1: the seventh, they come back home. They were off against Oregon.
[18:55] Speaker 1: Those are three big games right there between the middle
[18:57] Speaker 1: of October and let's say the early part of November.
[19:01] Speaker 1: They also still have that Michigan game that one's at
[19:04] Speaker 1: home this year to close out the season last week
[19:06] Speaker 1: in November. But you know, those are like four and
[19:09] Speaker 1: a half five losable games on here, and it feels
[19:13] Speaker 1: to me like a much more difficult schedule for Ohio
[19:15] Speaker 1: State than we've seen in a good long time, and
[19:17] Speaker 1: that's why this line is as low as it is.
[19:20] Speaker 1: Still nine and a half feels really low to me.
[19:22] Speaker 1: I'm they're losing more three games off this with what
[19:27] Speaker 1: they have that feels like a stretch, But that's why
[19:32] Speaker 1: the line is where it is.
[19:34] Speaker 2: Yeah, I would add it's there is a lot new
[19:38] Speaker 2: about Ohio State, not necessarily on the roster at starters
[19:42] Speaker 2: at starting positions, but look, they're going to have the
[19:44] Speaker 2: quarterback at advantage in maybe all of their games, but
[19:47] Speaker 2: they also play against at least a couple of first
[19:50] Speaker 2: round seeming quarterbacks, and arch maning at Dante more Julian
[19:53] Speaker 2: saying certainly looks to be a first round type quarterback
[19:55] Speaker 2: at his best. They have the best offensive skill player
[19:58] Speaker 2: in the country. They lose a good amount out in
[20:00] Speaker 2: terms of defensive depth, and they added some transfers on
[20:03] Speaker 2: both sides the ball. They added transfers at receiver. The
[20:06] Speaker 2: offensive line should be improved, like the position groups are
[20:09] Speaker 2: all probably going to be at the very least good,
[20:11] Speaker 2: if not excellent. The look at this schedule is that
[20:15] Speaker 2: they have what five losable games something like that and
[20:19] Speaker 2: a half five depends hour and a half five losable games,
[20:22] Speaker 2: but they seem to be more talented than every one
[20:25] Speaker 2: of those teams. I think if you are taking the
[20:30] Speaker 2: under here, you have to be an extraordinary Arthur Smith
[20:33] Speaker 2: skeptic and somebody who looks at you know, Brian hartlines
[20:39] Speaker 2: coaching as beyond crucial to the explosivity, the explosion whatever
[20:44] Speaker 2: of this receiver room these past few years. And now
[20:47] Speaker 2: that he's gone, what do they look like? I don't know,
[20:52] Speaker 2: They're just one of those teams or just like until
[20:54] Speaker 2: proven otherwise it's ten wins. I mean, look, Indian and
[21:00] Speaker 2: Oregon are both excellent. The Oregon game is in Columbus,
[21:02] Speaker 2: right and on the road, yep. Like I just there's
[21:07] Speaker 2: still too many questions about teams on this schedule in
[21:11] Speaker 2: terms of what even Texas looks like against an opponent
[21:15] Speaker 2: as good as Ohio State. And that's in week two
[21:17] Speaker 2: at least, so Texas has a week to sort of
[21:19] Speaker 2: get into a rhythm. I would still take the over here.
[21:24] Speaker 1: I would too. I mean, the other the other point here,
[21:28] Speaker 1: if you are a skeptic of Ohio State and that
[21:30] Speaker 1: over is look at this schedule and pick out the
[21:36] Speaker 1: teams that you think have decent enough defense, who can
[21:40] Speaker 1: run the football, which is part of why I brought
[21:42] Speaker 1: a Biowa right because if there is going to be
[21:44] Speaker 1: a weakness for Ohio State, my assumption again, we're doing
[21:49] Speaker 1: this mid March, Happy Saint Patrick's Day. Yeah, my assumption
[21:53] Speaker 1: is that that's probably the spot because that, to me
[21:56] Speaker 1: is where it feels like you've got the most turnover.
[21:58] Speaker 1: Now they backfield it fine, they're again, this is not
[22:01] Speaker 1: gonna be yes, but it's it's new faces up front.
[22:04] Speaker 1: It's new faces, new damistry. It is not a dearth
[22:07] Speaker 1: of talent. I don't mean to imply that, but I
[22:10] Speaker 1: feel like we have this conversation every year and more
[22:12] Speaker 1: and more with each passing year because of the portal,
[22:15] Speaker 1: because there is so much roster turnover a year and
[22:17] Speaker 1: in year out that we always have this conversation about
[22:19] Speaker 1: chemistry and communication and got you know, so much new.
[22:24] Speaker 1: It's never a given that it's gonna click. I just
[22:27] Speaker 1: I can't go under nine and a half.
[22:30] Speaker 2: This would also be when you look at their schedule,
[22:33] Speaker 2: like obviously Oregon won a regular season game in Eugene
[22:36] Speaker 2: against Ohio State a couple of years ago and then
[22:38] Speaker 2: didn't go super well in the Rose Bowl. The USC thing.
[22:42] Speaker 2: I think us C is gonna be a good team
[22:44] Speaker 2: this year. Usc USC plays Ohio State after a run
[22:49] Speaker 2: of Oregon, Washington, at Penn State, a bye at Wisconsin,
[22:54] Speaker 2: and then get Ohio State. So you either want Ohio
[22:57] Speaker 2: State early on in the season, when you have your legs,
[23:00] Speaker 2: when perhaps you have depth, or you want them later
[23:02] Speaker 2: on in the season and perhaps you've had some injury luck,
[23:04] Speaker 2: whereas Ohio State hasn't. I know that game's in LA,
[23:08] Speaker 2: but the next big Lincoln Riley win at USC will
[23:12] Speaker 2: be his first. Yeah, so there's that. Luckily, this game
[23:15] Speaker 2: is in LA where they do win more of their games.
[23:17] Speaker 2: But you're basically banking on Okay, do I believe in
[23:21] Speaker 2: Lincoln Riley building a complete team enough to beat Ohio
[23:25] Speaker 2: State or do I believe in Ohio State. It's a
[23:28] Speaker 2: tough sell for me at the moment.
[23:31] Speaker 1: Give me the computer, Dan, give me it one more time.
[23:35] Speaker 2: What do you got.
[23:38] Speaker 1: Let's talk about Texas Tech. Okay, eleven and a half
[23:45] Speaker 1: is the number.
[23:46] Speaker 2: Yeah, talk about a non conference schedule time. Yeah. Yeah.
[23:53] Speaker 1: Going from the Ohio State schedule to this one is
[23:55] Speaker 1: like going from hot water into cold. But quote, are
[23:59] Speaker 1: we thinking Tech Tech is going undefeated. There's no random
[24:02] Speaker 1: l to Houston, Colorado, ASU, Baylor, or TCU on here.
[24:07] Speaker 1: Quote in the history of the program, they've never done that.
[24:10] Speaker 1: Spare me the caveats about Texas and Oklahoma not being there.
[24:15] Speaker 1: Quote Texas Tech's schedule is an embarrassment. All right, Three
[24:20] Speaker 1: things for you, Okay? On Texas Tech eleven and a half,
[24:26] Speaker 1: they are losing a good chunk of that historic defense.
[24:31] Speaker 1: They are doing a hot swap at quarterback. They bring
[24:33] Speaker 1: down Brandon Soresby. I like what they have back on offense, though,
[24:38] Speaker 1: I like, if nothing more, the fact that this figures
[24:41] Speaker 1: to be a ferocious rushing offense bring back the entire
[24:46] Speaker 1: running back room. Brendon Sorsby we know can move. I
[24:50] Speaker 1: don't know if it looks different than it did a
[24:52] Speaker 1: year ago, but it should because Brendon Soorsby is a
[24:54] Speaker 1: lot more mobile than Baron Morton and hopefully not nearly
[24:57] Speaker 1: as injury prone. Question for me is defense, and the
[25:01] Speaker 1: question for me is, as somebody pointed out here in
[25:04] Speaker 1: the forboler hood, no random L. No random L. You're
[25:09] Speaker 1: assuming a twelve to oh season if you go over here, correct,
[25:13] Speaker 1: So I can tell you overwhelmingly and this is probably driven,
[25:17] Speaker 1: if nothing more, by just the odds, overwhelmingly by I
[25:23] Speaker 1: would say, like an eighty to twenty margin. People in
[25:27] Speaker 1: our community went under on Texas Tech. Okay, how do
[25:32] Speaker 1: you feel?
[25:34] Speaker 2: I mean, it would be new, but you're talking about
[25:36] Speaker 2: a new era of this sports. Who do they have? What?
[25:41] Speaker 2: Sam Houston, Abilene Christian who else is in there?
[25:46] Speaker 1: Yeah?
[25:46] Speaker 2: Let me pull up the scal Oregon State excuse meerence.
[25:49] Speaker 1: Pretty early on.
[25:50] Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, okay, So they've got Houston, They've got ASU,
[25:56] Speaker 2: they've got whatever we believe in about Arizona, and I
[26:00] Speaker 2: guess you know the Oklahoma State Baylor g Like nobody
[26:05] Speaker 2: is as advantage roster wise, it seems as Texas Tech here.
[26:13] Speaker 2: I just never buy banking or betting on a twelve
[26:17] Speaker 2: and ohero team, so I would take the under again,
[26:20] Speaker 2: it's eleven and a half. Eleven and a half, Yeah,
[26:25] Speaker 2: I think they're an eleven and one type team, because
[26:27] Speaker 2: then you're also banking on Brendan sorosby Colon fully healthy
[26:30] Speaker 2: all year long, which is not necessarily the best bet
[26:33] Speaker 2: in the world. No, I'm fine with taking the under
[26:36] Speaker 2: there and thinking Texas Tech is going to be excellent.
[26:38] Speaker 2: You know I have. I had very little doubt in
[26:41] Speaker 2: my mind about Texas Tech's excellence this season, especially in
[26:45] Speaker 2: the Big twelve. And then I saw that they removed
[26:48] Speaker 2: all weights that are less than forty pounds fewer than
[26:51] Speaker 2: forty pounds.
[26:52] Speaker 1: I saw that, yeah, and I was.
[26:54] Speaker 2: Like, man, how does this team ever lose? Right, They're
[26:57] Speaker 2: going to be so strong, so locked in. No thirty
[27:01] Speaker 2: five pound nancies for this Texas Tack team. A lot
[27:04] Speaker 2: of the like I live four days when all you
[27:08] Speaker 2: guys are living one day vibes here to this, right,
[27:11] Speaker 2: I work four hours, I take a two hour nap.
[27:13] Speaker 2: That's day one. I don't know, I just find that
[27:18] Speaker 2: kind of stuff.
[27:18] Speaker 1: There's a lot of like I make money online passively, Yeah,
[27:22] Speaker 1: and a lot of that energy going on with no
[27:26] Speaker 1: more forty pound weights in the weight.
[27:27] Speaker 2: No participation trophies for my kids. Here's my bonfire.
[27:32] Speaker 1: Yeah.
[27:33] Speaker 2: I think text texts me great this year. The schedule
[27:36] Speaker 2: aids things.
[27:37] Speaker 1: But see, I don't think the schedule is as easy
[27:40] Speaker 1: as some people have made it out to be. The
[27:42] Speaker 1: non con is a cakewalk. Sure, Houston, I think is
[27:46] Speaker 1: gonna be pretty good again. Games in Lubbock, games in Lubbock.
[27:50] Speaker 1: It's a great homeslate by the way, as is also
[27:54] Speaker 1: in Lubbock, Arizona also in Lubbock. Oklahoma State, I keep
[28:00] Speaker 1: coming back to Oklahoma State. I don't know if we'll
[28:02] Speaker 1: have time to get through then we're ready running over here.
[28:04] Speaker 1: But Oklahoma State's interesting to me. TCU for a couple
[28:08] Speaker 1: of reasons, is interesting to me. I just they don't
[28:12] Speaker 1: have BYU, they don't have Utah on this thing. I
[28:15] Speaker 1: get that that makes the conference slate easier, and I
[28:19] Speaker 1: get that the non conslate, as I said, is a cakewalk.
[28:22] Speaker 1: But I could count out like four games on here
[28:25] Speaker 1: that I don't think are gimmes, even if they've got
[28:27] Speaker 1: the best roster, and even if they're playing at home.
[28:30] Speaker 1: You just never know how a season's going to unfold.
[28:32] Speaker 1: It's a living, breathing thing. I would go under. I
[28:36] Speaker 1: would go under. I would say with more conviction than
[28:40] Speaker 1: almost any of those other ones that we talked about
[28:42] Speaker 1: before and some of the other ones that we're going
[28:44] Speaker 1: to talk about later. Alabama on the over, I feel
[28:47] Speaker 1: very confident about that. Ohio State on the over, I
[28:50] Speaker 1: feel very confident about that. I feel more confident with
[28:53] Speaker 1: Tech going under here just because the schedule looks to
[28:56] Speaker 1: me like there're gonna be some land mines.
[28:58] Speaker 2: I agree, And it's just I don't know, it's sort
[29:00] Speaker 2: of the historical math of college football that it's hard
[29:03] Speaker 2: to go undefeated that you get. I don't know who
[29:06] Speaker 2: the if you look at the quarterbacks on this like,
[29:08] Speaker 2: there's good quarterbacks on this schedule, right, you got Noah Fafida,
[29:13] Speaker 2: and you've got Drew Messimaker and Sawyer Robertson, Right, he's
[29:15] Speaker 2: still in college.
[29:16] Speaker 1: Well DJ Lagway is going to be the dude at Baylor.
[29:19] Speaker 2: Now, Oh that's right, So Sayer Robertson is I guess
[29:23] Speaker 2: Robinson he's got yeah, DJ Lagway. Excuse me, yes, sorry,
[29:27] Speaker 2: I stubbed my toe about an hour and a half
[29:29] Speaker 2: ago and the blood is all over the place. Sorry,
[29:31] Speaker 2: I'm still going under here.
[29:32] Speaker 1: Give me that computer.
[29:34] Speaker 2: Where are we going?
[29:36] Speaker 1: Let's talk about Clemson? Okay, seven and a.
[29:40] Speaker 2: Half din, Yeah, makes sense.
[29:45] Speaker 1: I don't have any hot takes here from the community
[29:47] Speaker 1: on Clemson, but I wanted to make sure I took
[29:50] Speaker 1: care of an acc team before we loop back around
[29:53] Speaker 1: and hit some others. Seven and a half slow, I
[29:57] Speaker 1: I would lump Clemson in with Florida State. Actually, because
[30:00] Speaker 1: if you look at what these lines amounted to in
[30:05] Speaker 1: the ACC Clemson seven and a half, Florida State six
[30:08] Speaker 1: and a half, a couple other ones that I pulled
[30:10] Speaker 1: out that people are very interested in, Georgia Tech six
[30:12] Speaker 1: and a half, SMU eight and a half, Miami ten
[30:15] Speaker 1: and a half. So no surprises with Miami, but I
[30:18] Speaker 1: think we are seeing a real battle for what would
[30:21] Speaker 1: be considered like that level too. It seems like there's
[30:25] Speaker 1: a bit of a gap between Miami and the next closest.
[30:27] Speaker 1: But just among these teams that I pulled out, and
[30:30] Speaker 1: again this is certainly not an inclusive list. SMU eight
[30:33] Speaker 1: and a half, Clemson seven and a half, Florida State
[30:35] Speaker 1: six and a half, Georgia Tech six and a half,
[30:39] Speaker 1: do you feel strongly I'll say about any of those.
[30:42] Speaker 2: I mean, I just Clemson's schedule is not great, Like
[30:51] Speaker 2: I just think there's so much quality on this schedule
[30:54] Speaker 2: that I I don't know, you said it was seven
[30:59] Speaker 2: and a half.
[31:00] Speaker 1: Seven and one half.
[31:01] Speaker 2: Yeah, they go, what do they go? Last year seven
[31:03] Speaker 2: and five regular season.
[31:04] Speaker 1: And a regular season they lost the Pinstripe, The bad
[31:07] Speaker 1: Boy Moyer's bad boy, Mower's pinchripole, excuse me.
[31:10] Speaker 2: Bad Chad Morris. More transfers than usual, still open with
[31:14] Speaker 2: LSU and game one of the Lane Kiff and Era
[31:17] Speaker 2: travel across the country and cal get Miami. We'll see
[31:21] Speaker 2: what Virginia Tech is by late October. We'll see what
[31:25] Speaker 2: Georgia Tech is by the end of the year as
[31:26] Speaker 2: they go through a bunch of new I'm not a
[31:29] Speaker 2: huge fan of where Duke is right now, or Syracuse
[31:31] Speaker 2: or Florida State. South Carolina could be tough if they
[31:34] Speaker 2: figure out offensive line by the end of the year.
[31:35] Speaker 2: That's a that's a big if. If South Carolina can
[31:38] Speaker 2: figure that out now with the injuries and stuff there,
[31:44] Speaker 2: I don't know. I just I don't feel electricity in
[31:48] Speaker 2: my in my marrow about Clemson.
[31:50] Speaker 1: Well, so, look, they didn't.
[31:52] Speaker 2: Just stay away from this, Like I just I'm left
[31:55] Speaker 2: feeling nothing.
[31:57] Speaker 1: They did attack the portal a little bit harder. They're
[31:59] Speaker 1: taking in ten which is the most that Dabbo's ever done.
[32:04] Speaker 1: It is mostly in the defensive realm, though in the secondary,
[32:11] Speaker 1: trying to add some depth there, trying to get better
[32:13] Speaker 1: on defense. Offensively, they do bring a lot back, but
[32:17] Speaker 1: they don't bring back Caid Clubnick, and so this is
[32:20] Speaker 1: going to be on the arm of Chris Vzina, not
[32:24] Speaker 1: a whole lot behind him, which I think is something
[32:26] Speaker 1: else to consider. Chad Morris has a system that's predicated
[32:30] Speaker 1: a lot on quick decisions, right processing, got to make
[32:34] Speaker 1: the right call, got to get the ball out. Chris
[32:37] Speaker 1: Vzina has something like seventy one total throws forty five
[32:42] Speaker 1: total completions in his career. They brought down Taj Boyd,
[32:46] Speaker 1: I think to be the new quarterback coach helped develop Zina.
[32:51] Speaker 1: But I think that's a real question. And that's not
[32:54] Speaker 1: to say that Caid Clubnick was bulletproof. You know, I
[32:57] Speaker 1: had a long journey with the club level. But there's
[33:01] Speaker 1: a real question here about what this looks like. They
[33:05] Speaker 1: need to run the ball better as well. They were
[33:06] Speaker 1: not efficient running the football and all I think they've
[33:08] Speaker 1: got talent, but they need to run the ball better.
[33:12] Speaker 1: They have targets out wide, but it's a question of
[33:14] Speaker 1: can they get it out to them. So the combination
[33:16] Speaker 1: of needing to try and add some pieces on defense
[33:19] Speaker 1: to make that side better, with one really big piece
[33:22] Speaker 1: being new on offense and in addition not having any
[33:26] Speaker 1: kind of running game that you can rely upon. I
[33:30] Speaker 1: don't know if I feel anything either. Seven and five
[33:33] Speaker 1: to me feels like a stretch, though I think it's
[33:36] Speaker 1: the right number. My hunch when I looked at this
[33:39] Speaker 1: was eight and four, nine and three. But I have
[33:41] Speaker 1: a soft spot for Clemson. It is not an easy schedule,
[33:45] Speaker 1: not by any stretch.
[33:46] Speaker 2: No, and they had a senior quarterback last year and
[33:52] Speaker 2: they were terrible on third downs. They couldn't run the ball,
[33:55] Speaker 2: their average, their offense was extremely average when all was
[34:00] Speaker 2: said and done. By the end of the season. They've
[34:02] Speaker 2: lost close games regularly. When you look at what Duke
[34:06] Speaker 2: and Georgia Tech and LS like, they lose these one
[34:09] Speaker 2: score games. What is it about? And now they're just
[34:13] Speaker 2: even further looking internally to the Clemson family to solve
[34:16] Speaker 2: these issues with Chad Morris and Taj Boyd on offense.
[34:20] Speaker 1: I think there's a chance they could get smoked in
[34:22] Speaker 1: Week one against LSU. Sure, And I know some places
[34:29] Speaker 1: have already put Dabble in the hot seat whatever that
[34:31] Speaker 1: amounts to. You know, I don't know if I should
[34:33] Speaker 1: believe that or not. You go out there and you
[34:35] Speaker 1: get drilled against LSU in Week one. That's gonna get
[34:40] Speaker 1: things started on wrong foot, and especially given questions most
[34:45] Speaker 1: of which will not be answered. I would say in
[34:48] Speaker 1: the first three weeks of the season, it's it's a
[34:50] Speaker 1: real concern that they could go seven to five, six
[34:53] Speaker 1: and six. I understand that possibility. I'm just I still
[34:57] Speaker 1: think enough talents on hand that that's not going to happen.
[34:59] Speaker 1: But I'm with you, I don't think I'd touched this one.
[35:03] Speaker 1: I don't think I would touch Florida State either. Six
[35:06] Speaker 1: and a half sure, which again feels really low. Having
[35:10] Speaker 1: grown up in the era of Bobby Bowden and all
[35:13] Speaker 1: those great Florida State teams like that, that fugels uncomfortable
[35:16] Speaker 1: to me.
[35:17] Speaker 2: No, but you're living in an era where six wins
[35:19] Speaker 2: is actually like, oh, Floridas, say, might have something special
[35:21] Speaker 2: this year. That's Mike Norvel optimistic.
[35:25] Speaker 1: Are we going to hitch our wagon Ashton Daniels at quarterback?
[35:32] Speaker 2: I mean I thought it was okay for Auburn.
[35:34] Speaker 1: Okay, I think he's okay.
[35:37] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[35:39] Speaker 1: Do you feel like Ashton Daniels is the dude is
[35:42] Speaker 1: going to save Mike Norville's job?
[35:44] Speaker 2: Likely? No, we don't know what we're getting from Florida.
[35:48] Speaker 2: We'll see with Pitt like there's there's if all of
[35:52] Speaker 2: these teams that we think are going to be somewhere
[35:55] Speaker 2: middle to upper class in the ACC are it's really
[36:00] Speaker 2: tough to see Florida State hitting the over on this.
[36:02] Speaker 1: To me, I just have way too many questions about
[36:06] Speaker 1: this team to feel anything at all positive or negative.
[36:12] Speaker 1: But I could definitely make a pretty good case for
[36:14] Speaker 1: the bottom falling out again. I could make a case.
[36:18] Speaker 1: It wouldn't be a strong a case for them winning
[36:20] Speaker 1: eight games. I just don't know what to feel with
[36:24] Speaker 1: Florida State. I think i'd stay away from that one.
[36:27] Speaker 2: I just think the vibes are down and I don't
[36:30] Speaker 2: know how you reverse this, So I'm just I'd probably
[36:34] Speaker 2: go under here. I think there was a six win team.
[36:36] Speaker 1: Give me the computer, Din, here's one for you, Oh miss. Okay,
[36:45] Speaker 1: seven and a half is the line. Quote, old Miss
[36:48] Speaker 1: could be anywhere from ten to two to four and eight.
[36:50] Speaker 1: I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. Quote. We know
[36:53] Speaker 1: they've gained at least one from Clemson. A little wink
[36:56] Speaker 1: emoji after that one. Okay, yep, I wonder what the
[37:01] Speaker 1: odds makers know that I don't. I don't know how
[37:06] Speaker 1: to take that comment. People are feeling the over on
[37:09] Speaker 1: Old Miss, But I get the real sense that there
[37:12] Speaker 1: is trepidation to some of the points that you made
[37:16] Speaker 1: in talking about Old Miss on maybe our last episode.
[37:19] Speaker 2: Yeah, because we.
[37:20] Speaker 1: Got a question about inertia in college football and what
[37:26] Speaker 1: things feel fixed, what things feel like a safe assumption
[37:33] Speaker 1: that maybe we shouldn't be putting as much stock in
[37:37] Speaker 1: and you called out Old Miss. You're not certain that
[37:40] Speaker 1: this is gonna work.
[37:42] Speaker 2: No, why would anybody be certain?
[37:43] Speaker 1: Well, Trinidad Chamblis Kiwan Lacy.
[37:46] Speaker 2: I mean because you have a quarterback back who is
[37:48] Speaker 2: legitimately excellent. Yeah, yeah, Deuce Night behind him. I don't know.
[37:54] Speaker 2: They obviously have a worse coach than what where they
[37:57] Speaker 2: have been the past few years at the moment, just
[38:01] Speaker 2: because he doesn't have the experience, he doesn't have the
[38:03] Speaker 2: track record, he doesn't have the reputation and bringing in
[38:06] Speaker 2: transfers that are obviously going to change Ole Missus ceiling.
[38:11] Speaker 2: So they have a downgrade at coach inasmuch as we
[38:15] Speaker 2: know at the moment, Lin Giffen won a bunch of
[38:18] Speaker 2: games yeah, he did. I don't hate their schedule. I think,
[38:23] Speaker 2: like you wrote the word down here, Gauntlet, and like,
[38:28] Speaker 2: if you look at their schedule, it's a Louisville team
[38:33] Speaker 2: that should be fine, but it's not crazy. They get
[38:36] Speaker 2: LSU in week three and that's in Oxford, heavy emotions,
[38:40] Speaker 2: losable game Florida will see, but that's still relatively early.
[38:44] Speaker 2: New coach, new quarterbacks, do everything in the Fandy a lot,
[38:48] Speaker 2: New Miszoo doesn't win big games. Texas is away and
[38:53] Speaker 2: that's going to be very tough, Auburn a lot. New
[38:57] Speaker 2: Georgia extremely tough, and they did just beat them in
[39:00] Speaker 2: the playoff. Oklahoma they won that game last year. Different coach,
[39:05] Speaker 2: different situation, different roster, and we'll see if Oklahoma has
[39:09] Speaker 2: made enough moves to get better on offense. They basically
[39:12] Speaker 2: always beat Mississippi State. So the optimus viewpoint is like,
[39:16] Speaker 2: there's only a couple of I maybe like three obviously
[39:20] Speaker 2: extremely challenging games in what LSU, Texas, and I just
[39:27] Speaker 2: lost the schedule in front of me. In Georgia, Georgia,
[39:30] Speaker 2: I think I would throw Oklahoma in there. They're a
[39:33] Speaker 2: playoff team from last season, but they have a lot
[39:35] Speaker 2: of questions. On offense, they couldn't get to thirty points
[39:37] Speaker 2: last year, so to me, my brain goes over here,
[39:45] Speaker 2: which is also convincing me to take the under. There
[39:50] Speaker 2: is a lot new on this team. There's a lot
[39:52] Speaker 2: new upfront on defense. There's a lot new upfront on well,
[39:54] Speaker 2: I think the tackles are new along the line, but
[39:56] Speaker 2: the receiving corps is largely new. I don't.
[40:01] Speaker 1: Well, here's the thing, okay, yeah, let me come back
[40:04] Speaker 1: to the coach. Pete Golding took over a team that
[40:08] Speaker 1: was loaded for bear and was playing with a chip
[40:11] Speaker 1: on its shoulder because Lane Kiffin left, and they damn
[40:15] Speaker 1: near made the national Championship. That was a good game
[40:18] Speaker 1: against Miami, they lost thirty one to twenty seven, But.
[40:21] Speaker 2: That staff is gone. Other than peak Golding, yeah.
[40:24] Speaker 1: Right, Like now, this is a full control, all delete situation.
[40:31] Speaker 1: They had a good transfer class, if only because they
[40:33] Speaker 1: had to. Perhaps they tampered a little bit. We can
[40:36] Speaker 1: ask Dablos, Winney and Clemson about that, but that's beside
[40:39] Speaker 1: the point. This is the number two transfer class per
[40:41] Speaker 1: twenty four to seven. The question now is can Pete
[40:45] Speaker 1: Golding reassemble everything? Can he step into a little bit
[40:50] Speaker 1: more of a CEO role and see the playing field
[40:53] Speaker 1: the way Lane Kiffin did. Lane Kiffen was many things,
[40:56] Speaker 1: not all of them great. Blane Kiffin was an expert
[41:00] Speaker 1: at assembling talent, putting them in a position to win,
[41:03] Speaker 1: and I think making that Old Miss program attractive for
[41:07] Speaker 1: incoming talent. He did a really good job of that.
[41:10] Speaker 1: We're going to see how good of a job Pete
[41:11] Speaker 1: Golding did with that. It's not just about getting guys
[41:15] Speaker 1: to sign with your school. It's also about getting the
[41:17] Speaker 1: right guys for your system, and Kevin was good at that.
[41:21] Speaker 1: So Pete Golding, who's been a defensive coordinator obviously has
[41:25] Speaker 1: been in proximity to really good teams in the South.
[41:29] Speaker 1: I think I have a base level of confidence that
[41:33] Speaker 1: the defense will be okay, even though there are some lawsuits.
[41:36] Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the transfers that have come in. I
[41:38] Speaker 2: think they should be pretty good.
[41:39] Speaker 1: But what about offense? You know, is he going to
[41:42] Speaker 1: be able to sustain the top five caliber offense? He's
[41:45] Speaker 1: got players, but again there's going to be I think
[41:48] Speaker 1: some real questions about you know, what is going to
[41:52] Speaker 1: be around Trinidad Chambliss, q One Lacy and Will be
[41:56] Speaker 1: as good as was a year ago. I tend to
[41:58] Speaker 1: agree with you on the schedule. I will say this
[42:00] Speaker 1: is a second straight year we're talking about old miss
[42:02] Speaker 1: with regard to its schedule. That was part of why
[42:05] Speaker 1: you like them a lot last year.
[42:06] Speaker 2: I did like them a lot.
[42:07] Speaker 1: Yeah, because of the schedule. I don't think its schedule
[42:09] Speaker 1: shakes up quite as well as it did a year ago.
[42:12] Speaker 1: But I understand where you're coming from when you look
[42:14] Speaker 1: at this and say, look, there's a lot of questions
[42:16] Speaker 1: on this thing.
[42:16] Speaker 2: It's also never been more difficult because like, Okay, you
[42:19] Speaker 2: look at LSU. Everything is new with LSU, Like, how
[42:23] Speaker 2: do you feel about Jordan's Seaton anchoring a completely new
[42:26] Speaker 2: look LSU offensive line? I don't know, he should be
[42:30] Speaker 2: really good. What does the rest of the line look like?
[42:31] Speaker 2: It's a bunch of new dudes, right, They're good at
[42:34] Speaker 2: running back, they're new at receiver. There's a ton new
[42:37] Speaker 2: on all three levels of the LSU defense. New coordinator. Like,
[42:40] Speaker 2: how are you supposed to evaluate LSU at all when
[42:43] Speaker 2: you're trying to figure out how you feel about a
[42:44] Speaker 2: win total? How do you supposed to feel about Florida?
[42:46] Speaker 2: How are you supposed to feel about Vanderbilt with the
[42:48] Speaker 2: freshman quarterback. How are you supposed feel about Miszoo with
[42:50] Speaker 2: Austin Simmons. How are you supposed to feel about Auburn
[42:54] Speaker 2: new quarterback, new head coach, obviously experienced together. How are
[42:56] Speaker 2: you supposed to feel about, you know, Mississippi State moving
[42:59] Speaker 2: to a new quarterback, Oklahoma trying to find offense. There's
[43:02] Speaker 2: no actual reason to feel good about any of these
[43:04] Speaker 2: teams with their win totals unless they have done such
[43:08] Speaker 2: a bulletproof job of themselves bringing back everybody, breaking the
[43:13] Speaker 2: bank to bring back a successful team from last year,
[43:17] Speaker 2: retaining their own staff, and that they are the stable
[43:20] Speaker 2: team in a sea of uncertainty, and Ole miss is
[43:22] Speaker 2: not a stable team right now.
[43:24] Speaker 1: Seven and a half is low. I wouldn't go seven
[43:26] Speaker 1: and five. I could make the case for eight and four.
[43:31] Speaker 1: I think there's more upside on the over, sure than
[43:35] Speaker 1: on the under. I have a question about pass rush
[43:40] Speaker 1: that's been lingering in the back of my mind that
[43:43] Speaker 1: to me is probably not going to be top billing
[43:46] Speaker 1: when we talk about this team people start previewing this team,
[43:49] Speaker 1: but that I have a question about that, and I
[43:52] Speaker 1: feel like if you want to be successful in the SEC,
[43:54] Speaker 1: you need some semblance of it. So I'm going to
[43:57] Speaker 1: say they won't. But I need to do a little
[43:59] Speaker 1: bit more digging to feel confidently one direction or another
[44:03] Speaker 1: about that pass rush. So my hunt right now would
[44:07] Speaker 1: be slightly over, but I would probably stay away from
[44:09] Speaker 1: this one as well. No hit the computer. Well yet,
[44:16] Speaker 1: Penn State, I feel nothing. Continue quote Campbell couldn't win
[44:24] Speaker 1: that many games in an easier conference with similar players. Sorry, Tye,
[44:28] Speaker 1: don't mean to be attacking you here, sure, Quote Penn
[44:33] Speaker 1: State with the most cowardly schedule. Ever, these aren't my words,
[44:37] Speaker 1: by the way, this is what people sent in anonymously.
[44:40] Speaker 1: Quote and Iowa State roster can't win ten games while
[44:43] Speaker 1: playing a big ten schedule. Okay, the over under here
[44:47] Speaker 1: is nine and one half for Penn State. Everybody's calling
[44:52] Speaker 1: out to schedule Dan. You look at the schedule, yet I'm.
[44:55] Speaker 2: Looking at it right now, and I have, Yeah, another
[44:58] Speaker 2: study in bravery with this non confer portion.
[45:01] Speaker 1: Marshall Temple Buffalo to start things out.
[45:03] Speaker 2: Huh.
[45:04] Speaker 1: Then it's Wisconsin Northwestern USC Michigan back to back. That'll
[45:10] Speaker 1: be tough. Yeah, at Michigan in the big House, but
[45:13] Speaker 1: then there's bye week. They close out the season Perdue
[45:16] Speaker 1: at home on Halloween, on the road to start off
[45:20] Speaker 1: November in Washington, which I think will be a tough game.
[45:24] Speaker 1: Then they close things out with Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland. DAN.
[45:29] Speaker 1: That is a very advantageous schedule for Penn State.
[45:33] Speaker 2: Agree, there's a lot new.
[45:36] Speaker 1: Functionally, it is the best of Iowa State or most
[45:40] Speaker 1: of the best of Iowa State with whatever is remaining
[45:43] Speaker 1: at Penn State. So if you did any kind of
[45:46] Speaker 1: deep dive on Iowa State last year, the good news
[45:49] Speaker 1: for us as essentially researchers at this stage and the
[45:52] Speaker 1: game is we have a baseline understanding for what Iowa
[45:55] Speaker 1: State is going to be, but Penn State will be
[45:57] Speaker 1: with Iowa State's players.
[45:58] Speaker 2: Yep.
[46:00] Speaker 1: Half's a lot DAN. So given this schedule, given this roster,
[46:06] Speaker 1: do you feel one way or another. I could tell
[46:09] Speaker 1: you that our people, about ninety percent of our people
[46:13] Speaker 1: voted under on Penn State nine and a half.
[46:16] Speaker 2: I think they're a nine and three team. I don't
[46:18] Speaker 2: think they're perfect. They're gonna win the three non conference games.
[46:21] Speaker 2: The at Washington game looks very difficult to me, traveling
[46:24] Speaker 2: across the country. Washington should be in decent shape, especially
[46:27] Speaker 2: on offense. I know they lose a couple of big
[46:29] Speaker 2: dudes there at Michigan's is going to be extremely tough.
[46:33] Speaker 2: They'll win the USC game just because it's Lincoln Riley
[46:36] Speaker 2: on the road. I don't know if you've done the
[46:39] Speaker 2: math on that, but it's pretty good. They'll beat USC,
[46:44] Speaker 2: and then I think they'll just lose something along the way,
[46:48] Speaker 2: whether it's a weird I think it's the Northwestern game
[46:51] Speaker 2: is short week on the road, right, and it's the
[46:53] Speaker 2: new stadium opener.
[46:54] Speaker 1: That's the new state.
[46:55] Speaker 2: Northwestern is going to be but here and there. Northwestern
[46:57] Speaker 2: has been challenging, and now it's Chip Kell and Aiden Chiles.
[47:01] Speaker 1: I don't know.
[47:01] Speaker 2: I have no idea.
[47:02] Speaker 1: Is that a Friday night game?
[47:03] Speaker 2: By the way, that's a Friday night game. You're welcome
[47:05] Speaker 2: to come from.
[47:06] Speaker 1: I might have to come out for that.
[47:07] Speaker 2: Check the opening of the new stadium, short week on
[47:09] Speaker 2: the road after the Wisconsin.
[47:11] Speaker 1: Can we get tickets for that?
[47:12] Speaker 2: I can figure out how to get tickets. Yes, Okay,
[47:15] Speaker 2: it's still Northwestern. It is. It is going to be
[47:17] Speaker 2: a hot ticket though. Yeah, I'm sure I don't know
[47:20] Speaker 2: the Minnesota game, the Rutgers game. They don't lose to Maryland.
[47:23] Speaker 2: I think they're just there's a toast stub in there.
[47:29] Speaker 1: I would probably go under.
[47:30] Speaker 2: I think I think James Franklin is a better coach
[47:34] Speaker 2: than Matt Campbell. At the end of his Penn State tenure,
[47:38] Speaker 2: he was not as good as he was before. James
[47:41] Speaker 2: Franklin Penn State would win ten games against this schedule.
[47:47] Speaker 1: James Franklin, Penn State would probably win eleven games.
[47:50] Speaker 2: I don't know the aggregate of like whatever the average
[47:52] Speaker 2: of the best five six, seven years of James Franklin
[47:56] Speaker 2: Penn State is wins double digits against this schedule. I
[48:00] Speaker 2: just think it's year one. It's an overhauled roster. It's
[48:03] Speaker 2: a lot of movement. I think they're a nine to
[48:05] Speaker 2: three team.
[48:09] Speaker 1: I'm actually most curious about the defense, and it feels
[48:14] Speaker 1: very odd to say that because that has certainly not
[48:17] Speaker 1: been the case for the last what ten years Penn
[48:21] Speaker 1: State football. I think we know what we're getting from
[48:26] Speaker 1: the offense. And this is not to say it's going
[48:28] Speaker 1: to be electric, but it will be different. There will
[48:31] Speaker 1: be different faces. Most of those guys are familiar with
[48:34] Speaker 1: the system, the offense will be fine, but defensively, especially
[48:39] Speaker 1: up front, that's where I have the biggest concerns about
[48:42] Speaker 1: this team. And it's interesting that Dan Lynn would come
[48:46] Speaker 1: over from USC because he had the same situation over there.
[48:49] Speaker 1: Sure is it exactly the same as it apples to
[48:52] Speaker 1: Apple's Probably not. But I look at the schedule, I
[48:57] Speaker 1: look at this team, and I find a couple teams
[49:01] Speaker 1: here that I think are gonna want to run the ball.
[49:05] Speaker 1: I think Wisconsin could probably try and run the ball
[49:07] Speaker 1: on them. I think USC hopefully they get better at
[49:11] Speaker 1: running the ball, but I like their backs. I think
[49:14] Speaker 1: Mishikin certainly under Kyle Whittingham's going to try to run
[49:16] Speaker 1: the ball. Washington on the road's going to try to
[49:19] Speaker 1: run the ball. There are some potential land mines here.
[49:24] Speaker 1: I'm looking specifically at teams that I think can run
[49:27] Speaker 1: or will at least try to run the football, because that,
[49:30] Speaker 1: to me is the matchup that I would, at least
[49:33] Speaker 1: as of recording this mid March, That's where I would
[49:37] Speaker 1: look to exploit Penn State right now. Okay, so for me,
[49:42] Speaker 1: I'm probably on the under I tend to agree with
[49:45] Speaker 1: you on the nine and a half. I think that's
[49:46] Speaker 1: I think that's a good line. Nine and a half,
[49:50] Speaker 1: but I'm bleeding probably more ten and three right now
[49:52] Speaker 1: or nine and three right now. Can make the case
[49:54] Speaker 1: for ten and two.
[49:56] Speaker 2: They really do. Miss Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana. It's
[49:59] Speaker 2: crazy finish with a whimper of Minnesota, Rutgers, Maryland. Yeah,
[50:06] Speaker 2: I guess it would be those if they start five
[50:08] Speaker 2: and oh, it seems like there's a good shot of
[50:11] Speaker 2: going over the Wisconsin is at Northwestern thing at Temple
[50:16] Speaker 2: in Philly. Are you gonna go?
[50:18] Speaker 1: I don't think so.
[50:19] Speaker 2: It's hard to go to games.
[50:21] Speaker 1: Unless it's a Friday night. I could do a Friday
[50:23] Speaker 1: Night's true, that's not gonna be a Friday night game.
[50:26] Speaker 2: Okay, it doesn't me beautiful by the way north Shore here, Yeah,
[50:30] Speaker 2: early October, it's great.
[50:32] Speaker 1: Well, we'll see if we can work that out. You
[50:34] Speaker 1: got to make your pizza.
[50:35] Speaker 2: Though, of course I will.
[50:36] Speaker 1: We can tailgate, we can tailgate.
[50:39] Speaker 2: It's great.
[50:41] Speaker 1: It's wild, though, to look at this Penn State roster
[50:43] Speaker 1: and recognize so many astravible state It is essentially a
[50:47] Speaker 1: Penn State face plate on a bunch of Iowa State players.
[50:51] Speaker 1: And you know that I'm not editorializing that at all.
[50:55] Speaker 1: It just is what it is. And I like this
[50:58] Speaker 1: Siowa State team a year ago. I love Carson Hanson.
[51:02] Speaker 1: I think Central Pennsylvania's gonna love Carson Hanson, which is
[51:05] Speaker 1: a bullet running back. And hopefully it looks different on offense.
[51:11] Speaker 1: You know, the Taylor Mouser systems one that definitely prioritizes
[51:16] Speaker 1: some vertical shots as part of the passing game, which
[51:19] Speaker 1: is not something that I think we saw enough of.
[51:22] Speaker 1: So I think there's reason to be excited on about
[51:24] Speaker 1: the record. Nine and a half's pretty steep.
[51:26] Speaker 2: All Right, Was Iowa State good in the vertical passing
[51:29] Speaker 2: game last season?
[51:31] Speaker 1: I don't know. Let's move on. Play the QFT.
[51:33] Speaker 2: First in yards per successful drop.
[51:35] Speaker 1: Play the play the computer.
[51:39] Speaker 2: Next b YU by total eight and a half, weird number.
[51:46] Speaker 1: Quote the fact that BYU is only eight and a
[51:49] Speaker 1: half with returning so much as wild and that the
[51:53] Speaker 1: game versus Utah could be the one that gets them
[51:56] Speaker 1: over or under is even wilder. Okay. Also quote outside
[52:01] Speaker 1: of Notre Dame, who they have at home and at elevation,
[52:05] Speaker 1: they should be at least evenly matched with everyone they play.
[52:08] Speaker 1: It's funny you say that, let's take a look at
[52:10] Speaker 1: the schedule. Do you have a chance to go over this.
[52:14] Speaker 2: I think it's great. I think the over is like
[52:17] Speaker 2: a very easy call with BYU to me.
[52:19] Speaker 1: Open the year with Utah Tech yep an Arizona at home,
[52:24] Speaker 1: Colorado State, then a bye TCU Iowa State, the big
[52:28] Speaker 1: Notre Dame game again at home. Notre Dames first visit
[52:31] Speaker 1: the provo since like the early odds UCF they do
[52:37] Speaker 1: of Arizona State at home. There is that Utah game, Baylor, Kansas, Cincinnati.
[52:42] Speaker 1: This is a great schedule. This is a great schedule.
[52:46] Speaker 1: Now I have questions about bear Bachmeyer throwing the football.
[52:52] Speaker 1: I think we have enough data at this point to
[52:55] Speaker 1: assume that they're going to be able to use him
[52:56] Speaker 1: as a battering ram if they want to. He's a
[52:58] Speaker 1: big kid. LJ. Martin is back as a senior now,
[53:01] Speaker 1: and he's going to be the engine for the offense.
[53:04] Speaker 1: That is what you are signing up for with this
[53:06] Speaker 1: BYU team. At least on offense. The receiver room is
[53:11] Speaker 1: going to be different. He's losing his biggest weapons, so
[53:15] Speaker 1: who is going to step up out wide. It's not
[53:18] Speaker 1: to say that BYU ever really has like a killer
[53:21] Speaker 1: out wide. They're very good at plugging guys in. They're
[53:24] Speaker 1: very good at Aaron Roderick especially is good at using
[53:27] Speaker 1: the personnel to its best attributes. So you don't necessarily
[53:33] Speaker 1: need to have killers out wide. You just need to
[53:35] Speaker 1: have somebody who knows how to use what you do
[53:37] Speaker 1: have out wide. That is Aaron Roderck. I think he's
[53:39] Speaker 1: good at that. And defensively, I expect base level competence.
[53:44] Speaker 1: They'll be fine on defense.
[53:45] Speaker 2: So I look at this, I mean, lose their defensive coordinator.
[53:48] Speaker 1: Who's their defensive coordinator? J Hill?
[53:49] Speaker 2: But yeah, which I think is a big deal.
[53:52] Speaker 1: It is, But they're they're promoting from within. They're going
[53:55] Speaker 1: to try and keep the same system mostly intact. That's
[53:58] Speaker 1: part of the Papina their new guy. That's part of
[54:02] Speaker 1: what he is on the record saying that they just
[54:04] Speaker 1: want to keep going with what they've already got. And
[54:08] Speaker 1: he's another guy. Papinko has been with BYU for like
[54:10] Speaker 1: thirteen seasons as a coordinator in some sense, so he's
[54:13] Speaker 1: stepping in. He's familiar with what they've got there already.
[54:16] Speaker 1: Does hurt to lose Jay Hill? I just look at this,
[54:20] Speaker 1: and I'm with you, like I could see a couple losses.
[54:24] Speaker 1: I think on paper, Notre Dame is better. But if
[54:29] Speaker 1: you are assuming that they go eight and four, you
[54:33] Speaker 1: are looking at this and you're saying, Okay, they're gonna
[54:35] Speaker 1: have to lose a couple to Arizona, Arizona State, Utah,
[54:43] Speaker 1: who else?
[54:45] Speaker 2: Agree?
[54:46] Speaker 1: Like, they're not losing all those games, especially since most
[54:49] Speaker 1: of them are at home.
[54:52] Speaker 2: Look, they had one of the best linebacking corps in
[54:54] Speaker 2: the country last year. They bring back a ton upfront,
[54:56] Speaker 2: I believe on defense, Right, there's a lot back for BYU,
[55:01] Speaker 2: especially up front on both sides of the ball. If
[55:04] Speaker 2: what I'm seeing is true, yeh ye, yeah, absolutely. The
[55:07] Speaker 2: thing I liked about BYU last season is look, take
[55:10] Speaker 2: away the losses. The losses. They were not a competitive
[55:13] Speaker 2: team in those losses. Really. I mean, like they got
[55:16] Speaker 2: a lot of red zone stops against Texas Tech, but
[55:19] Speaker 2: who didn't tie. But their offense was not at all
[55:22] Speaker 2: competitive in those losses. But otherwise, after early on in
[55:26] Speaker 2: the season, they weren't eking out three point wins. Right,
[55:29] Speaker 2: They had the close wins against Utah Arizona, but they
[55:31] Speaker 2: were winning those games by a couple touchdowns by twenty
[55:33] Speaker 2: points whatever, Like this wasn't a team that was just
[55:37] Speaker 2: eking by. So there is something about BYU and now
[55:42] Speaker 2: bear Bachmeier with an entire offseason as the dude he
[55:45] Speaker 2: was thrust in right last season thrust so thrust he
[55:48] Speaker 2: has off season reps and now I don't know, emotionally,
[55:52] Speaker 2: how is he when now he's the most famous dude
[55:55] Speaker 2: on that campus basically other than the head coach. Like
[55:58] Speaker 2: that's new. That's an interesting thing to to deal with.
[56:01] Speaker 2: But I look at this schedule and I just I
[56:03] Speaker 2: don't think so many teams are so much better than
[56:07] Speaker 2: where they were last year. Like these teams weren't close
[56:09] Speaker 2: for the most part, and now Utah's starting over. I mean,
[56:14] Speaker 2: obviously Morgan Scalley's been there forever, but like they have
[56:17] Speaker 2: a new head coach, they've got some questions on both
[56:20] Speaker 2: sides of the ball. I just think the stability with BYU,
[56:23] Speaker 2: which is weird to say given what they do lose.
[56:26] Speaker 2: I don't know. I just I think their starting point
[56:29] Speaker 2: is a real nice point. So I would take the over.
[56:32] Speaker 1: We got time for one more dan, okay, and I'm
[56:36] Speaker 1: going to give you a choice of these teams. You
[56:38] Speaker 1: have three teams to pick from. All of them got
[56:41] Speaker 1: considerable traction among our community. By the way, if we
[56:46] Speaker 1: are talking about BYU, just to put a bow on
[56:48] Speaker 1: that conversation, the overballerhood overwhelmingly went over. Overwhelmingly went over,
[56:56] Speaker 1: like eighty five percent went over. So your options here
[57:00] Speaker 1: are as follows. LSU over under nine and a half wins,
[57:06] Speaker 1: USC over under eight and a half wins, Notre Dame
[57:10] Speaker 1: over under eleven and a half wins.
[57:13] Speaker 2: Notre Dame is pretty boring to talk about with this schedule,
[57:16] Speaker 2: so I would take the over with Notre Dame. I
[57:19] Speaker 2: don't love doing the eleven and a half over, but
[57:22] Speaker 2: if they're not playing anybody challenging early on, I mean, look.
[57:28] Speaker 1: It's a shockingly high number, but you look at the schedule,
[57:33] Speaker 1: it makes sense they should be better. They should be
[57:35] Speaker 1: favored against every team on this thing, so you understand
[57:39] Speaker 1: why it's at eleven and a half. But that's still
[57:42] Speaker 1: a really high number. There's no margin for error. Overwhelmingly
[57:46] Speaker 1: there a ball hood went under a Notre Dame, which
[57:48] Speaker 1: I completely understand. If you're playing the percentages, all you're
[57:51] Speaker 1: betting on is one loss entirely possible.
[57:57] Speaker 2: I'd like to talk about LSU just because it's an
[57:59] Speaker 2: insane proposition to actually figure out. But just like the
[58:03] Speaker 2: LSU conversation with this schedule, having who they have, especially
[58:07] Speaker 2: early on in Clemson, Ole Miss in A and M
[58:10] Speaker 2: in September, and it's what Clemson at home, Ole Miss
[58:16] Speaker 2: in Oxford and A and M at home. So three
[58:20] Speaker 2: what should be three emotionally charged games. LSU spent reportedly
[58:25] Speaker 2: like they plan on competing for a national championship this year.
[58:28] Speaker 1: Forty million dollars was the number that Brian Kelly threw.
[58:31] Speaker 2: Out reportedly, Yeah, right around forty million dollars. So what
[58:36] Speaker 2: you're counting on with that nine and a half number,
[58:38] Speaker 2: if you're going over is you're basically saying Sam Levitt
[58:42] Speaker 2: is going to look like the Sam Levitt that we
[58:44] Speaker 2: saw two years ago. And I guess the beginning of
[58:47] Speaker 2: the twenty twenty five season, after a very major procedure
[58:51] Speaker 2: list Frank.
[58:52] Speaker 1: Is foot right, was Frank is your foot? Yeah?
[58:54] Speaker 2: Yes, So I don't love that with a mobile quarterback
[58:58] Speaker 2: coming off of a very serious footage. I like Lane
[59:02] Speaker 2: Kiffin as a coach, I'm not sure I'm in love
[59:04] Speaker 2: with Lane Kiff and Colin dependably excellent at a place
[59:08] Speaker 2: like LSU. No, No, Nevertheless, you know, the back half
[59:13] Speaker 2: of the schedule or the middle of the schedule eases up,
[59:16] Speaker 2: and then it's Alabama, Texas, Tennessee in Knoxville, Arkansas. I'm
[59:21] Speaker 2: not terribly worried about in this moment, but I don't know,
[59:25] Speaker 2: like Texas, Alabama, A and M and perhaps Ole Miss
[59:30] Speaker 2: are just ahead of where LSU is just because of
[59:34] Speaker 2: roster stability. For the most part, Ole Miss brings back
[59:37] Speaker 2: their quarterback, A and M brings back their quarterback. In
[59:40] Speaker 2: a lot of pieces, I think there's just an immense
[59:43] Speaker 2: amount of pressure and immense amount of attention that's going
[59:45] Speaker 2: to be on LSU. I just can't imagine confidently going
[59:49] Speaker 2: over with LSU in this moment.
[59:51] Speaker 1: Nine and a half is the number. Quote right, based
[59:54] Speaker 1: on what Lane's two good years at ole Miss, They're
[59:58] Speaker 1: going to be better than that for sure, just this year.
[1:00:01] Speaker 1: Quote a whole new transfer team that's supposed to just
[1:00:05] Speaker 1: gel immediately. That's not something I would bet on. Nine
[1:00:08] Speaker 1: and a half. Nine and a half is the number.
[1:00:11] Speaker 2: You're basically saying, is Lane Kiffen Kurt Signetti in the
[1:00:17] Speaker 2: SEC where Kurt Signetti had how many expectations going into
[1:00:22] Speaker 2: the twenty twenty four season two years ago?
[1:00:24] Speaker 1: None?
[1:00:25] Speaker 2: Zero, none. He was basically, if Kurt Signetti going into
[1:00:30] Speaker 2: twenty twenty four had Indiana as feisty, he's getting a statue,
[1:00:35] Speaker 2: let alone going to the inaugural twelve team playoff, let
[1:00:38] Speaker 2: alone winning a national championship the following year. Lane Kiffen,
[1:00:43] Speaker 2: on the full opposite end of that spectrum, has a
[1:00:48] Speaker 2: roster that says, yeah, you gotta win ten eleven games,
[1:00:52] Speaker 2: of course and end up in the playoff, of course.
[1:00:56] Speaker 2: I just I'm not there in this moment in terms
[1:00:59] Speaker 2: of feeling confident. We'll see as everything progresses. I don't
[1:01:03] Speaker 2: even think Sam Levit's playing in the spring, right or
[1:01:05] Speaker 2: not playing anything substantially in the spring.
[1:01:07] Speaker 1: Now, he's going to be missing serious reps. And that's
[1:01:10] Speaker 1: notable here. It's notable for a couple of reasons. Obviously,
[1:01:14] Speaker 1: he is going to be throwing new receivers, I mean
[1:01:17] Speaker 1: new receivers for LSU as well as your system, new line,
[1:01:21] Speaker 1: new line receivers, new apartments, new everything, everything's new. So
[1:01:28] Speaker 1: he was the top quarterback by some measures this portal cycle.
[1:01:33] Speaker 1: But he had the injury. He's going to be limited
[1:01:37] Speaker 1: during spring, won't be having the reps, as you said,
[1:01:40] Speaker 1: going to be learning an entirely new system. Yeah, you
[1:01:42] Speaker 1: canbine that with the line. You can bind that with
[1:01:44] Speaker 1: just everything new. I hear where people are coming from here,
[1:01:48] Speaker 1: and I think one thing that we know now, after
[1:01:54] Speaker 1: a couple iterations of the portal and teams using it
[1:01:57] Speaker 1: to varying degrees, you can hit on a couple of guys.
[1:02:01] Speaker 1: It's rare that you hit on all of them. And
[1:02:03] Speaker 1: that's what Signetti is essentially done in two straight years
[1:02:06] Speaker 1: in Indiana. And we know that Lane Kiffin is sort
[1:02:08] Speaker 1: of like the self proclaimed portal King, is very good
[1:02:10] Speaker 1: at it. You know, his talent could bring it in.
[1:02:13] Speaker 1: He was very good at doing that while he was
[1:02:15] Speaker 1: at Old Miss. So I have no reason to think
[1:02:17] Speaker 1: that that LSU is going to be worse than they
[1:02:20] Speaker 1: were a year ago. I think they'll be better. But
[1:02:23] Speaker 1: nine and a half is not an easy ask. It's
[1:02:28] Speaker 1: not even a schedule that I look at and quiver
[1:02:30] Speaker 1: with fear of, Like, I think they can win a
[1:02:32] Speaker 1: bunch of these games, but you're essentially betting on a
[1:02:36] Speaker 1: ten and two LSU with so much New, so much
[1:02:39] Speaker 1: gelling right away. I don't think I would bet on that.
[1:02:44] Speaker 1: I think I go under.
[1:02:45] Speaker 2: Okay, so the upside is obvious and that they've they've
[1:02:48] Speaker 2: spent on talent on both sides of the ball, that
[1:02:51] Speaker 2: if Sam Levit's healthy, that the track record of Lane
[1:02:55] Speaker 2: Kiffen with quarterbacks is.
[1:02:57] Speaker 1: Largely really really good. Sure, I just like part of
[1:03:02] Speaker 1: Sam Levitt's appeal is that he's a mobile quarterback, and
[1:03:07] Speaker 1: a mobile quarterback coming off a foot injury against an
[1:03:11] Speaker 1: SEC gaunt. Let's get like, this is still a tough schedule.
[1:03:15] Speaker 1: I don't know, there's a lot that feels like it
[1:03:17] Speaker 1: go wrong in that circumstance. So I like nine and
[1:03:21] Speaker 1: three against this is a really good year, especially for
[1:03:24] Speaker 1: year one was so much new. I wouldn't want to
[1:03:28] Speaker 1: go above nine and three.
[1:03:31] Speaker 2: I wouldn't either. And by the way, the Devil's Advocate
[1:03:34] Speaker 2: thing on Sam Levitt is I think he's good. Are
[1:03:40] Speaker 2: we absolutely sure that even healthy? Like against Texas in
[1:03:45] Speaker 2: the biggest game of his college career, he didn't do anything. No,
[1:03:48] Speaker 2: Kenny Dillingham is a good quarterback. I think I think
[1:03:50] Speaker 2: Kenny did exam a good quarterback mind, good offensive mind.
[1:03:54] Speaker 2: That was running game, it was defense, it was situational
[1:03:58] Speaker 2: hit a great game against Iowa State in the Big
[1:03:59] Speaker 2: twelve chair Biship game. He wasn't destroying teams in the
[1:04:03] Speaker 2: Big twelve last year with Asu. No, I think it's
[1:04:07] Speaker 2: a good quarterback. I don't think he's a like plug
[1:04:11] Speaker 2: and play now that Lane Kiffin has him. With these
[1:04:15] Speaker 2: you know, with LSU's new receivers or whatever we're talking about,
[1:04:19] Speaker 2: a heis. I'm not there right now, and maybe I
[1:04:23] Speaker 2: will become labor day, but I'd be happy taking the
[1:04:27] Speaker 2: under in this moment.
[1:04:31] Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean you need to assume that Sam Levitt's healthy,
[1:04:35] Speaker 1: that the offensive line gets attacked together in an off season,
[1:04:40] Speaker 1: that a couple dozen new players all hit, they're all chemistry,
[1:04:45] Speaker 1: everything's working. That's a lot that you're leaving to assumption.
[1:04:49] Speaker 2: If you want to get three point seven yards per
[1:04:51] Speaker 2: attempted to interceptions at Mississippi State last season.
[1:04:56] Speaker 1: Why don't we leave it there? Folks right in saliverbo
[1:04:59] Speaker 1: at GIMIL dot com know your thoughts on all of
[1:05:02] Speaker 1: these teams we discussed. We have many more that we
[1:05:03] Speaker 1: did not have an opportunity to go through. We can
[1:05:06] Speaker 1: maybe put those somewhere in reserve and come back to
[1:05:09] Speaker 1: it at some point else when we've got a little
[1:05:12] Speaker 1: bit more time here. We don't want to run too
[1:05:13] Speaker 1: long on today's episode. Again, hit follow, hit subscribe so
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[1:05:39] Speaker 1: on the Solid Verbal Good show, Dan Happy, Saint Patrick's
[1:05:43] Speaker 1: day to you, what is the Is the river green? Yet?
[1:05:46] Speaker 2: I have no idea. You haven't been It will be green.
[1:05:50] Speaker 2: I know there will be like green bagels and donuts
[1:05:53] Speaker 2: and all that stuff around Chicago. Okay, I'm not planning
[1:05:56] Speaker 2: on doing anything. It's cold and miserable right now. Once again,
[1:05:59] Speaker 2: we had bring for about thirty six hours and got
[1:06:02] Speaker 2: a big old dump of snow last night.
[1:06:05] Speaker 1: So wow, for that guy over there, my good friend
[1:06:07] Speaker 1: Dan Rubinstein, for myself, Tie Hildebrand over here in Eastern PA,
[1:06:11] Speaker 1: write in let us know your thoughts on all of
[1:06:13] Speaker 1: these lines any other lines that are of interest to you,
[1:06:16] Speaker 1: we'd love to hear again. Soliverble at gmail dot com
[1:06:18] Speaker 1: or hit us up on any of the social media
[1:06:21] Speaker 1: platforms you know. The drill gets you on about forty
[1:06:24] Speaker 1: eight hours. In the meantime, Stay solid, Peace,

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