# Pete Hegseth Believes in the Lethality Fairy

An episode of [Paul Krugman Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1877144831), 30 Mar 2026, 5:29.

Audio: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/192608435/b2b551f0beabfb074d6a8566a07214f5.mp3

A month into the war, and now they’re talking about pointless ground action and/or war crimes. TRANSCRIPT Pete Hegseth believes in the lethality fairy, and that’s a very bad thing. Hi, Paul Krugman here. Most people watching this probably don’t get the reference. In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, a number of governments did what economic textbooks say is exactly the wrong thing. They slashed government spending in the face of mass unemployment. And they justified this in part by arguing that although, yeah, sure, if we slash spending and eliminate a bunch of jobs, that should be bad, could make things worse. never mind because it will improve confidence and that will lead to economic expansion. I, in an essay in 2010, called this believing in the “confidence fairy,” one of the coinages that seemed to stick. And of course, the confidence fairy never arrived. Countries that created worse unemployment by engaging in austerity policies suffered worse unemployment. There was no rescue from improved confidence. In this case, our Secretary of Defense, which is his legal title, although he calls himself the Secretary of War, continually argues that if only we get even more violent, if only we do even more damage, that this will somehow translate into success in Iran. He clearly relishes the thought of violence himself. He’s now holding prayer breakfasts, and in his prayer breakfast, he called upon the Lord to support us in “overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy.” I think this is deeply un-American, but anyway, aside from the evilness — I don’t think there’s any other way to put it — of the world view, how is this supposed to work? If you look at the plans or ideas that are being bruited for using ground forces now, and that’s clearly very much sort the next step here, for using ground forces against Iran, well, yeah, you can seize Kharg Island, although hanging onto it could be very expensive, but then what? You’ve cut off Iranian oil exports, we could do that anytime anyway, then what? You can, well, try to occupy some of Iran, but the relevant coastline is well over a thousand kilometers long. Missiles and drones can be fired from deep inside Iran. 10,000 soldiers, maybe, is not remotely enough to secure the Persian Gulf, let alone allow shipping to transit, let alone allow tankers to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. So this doesn’t make any sense, unless you somehow think that the sheer act of violence will shock and awe Iran into submission, which, if it was going to happen, would have happened already. Clearly not on the cards. Hegseth is all, we are going to kill lots of people. Trump is vacillating. In his Truth Social post this morning, he started out by saying we are on the verge of successful negotiations, and we’ll get the Strait open soon because we’re having extremely good talks with the Iranians. Other presidents have been accused of negotiating with themselves. Trump is negotiating with his imaginary friends. There’s no reason at all to believe that these talks are actually happening. But he then pivots midway through the post, to saying, and if we don’t get this, then we’re going to start bombing civilian power plants and water supplies. So give us what we want or we’ll commit a massive, massive war crime, which I hope is not going to happen. But even if it did, why would you think this would open up the Strait of Hormuz? So it’s this lust for violence with no actual coherent story about how that violence is going to produce results. It’s horrifying. I really don’t know how this ends, except that it does feel as if this is a quagmire largely in the minds of top Trump officials, Trump himself and Hegseth, who having this utterly unshakable belief that hurting people will produce great results, respond to each failure of violence to produce results by getting even more destructive with no end game in sight. Have a great day. Get full access to Paul Krugman at…

## Transcript

[0:00] Pete Hegseth believes in the lethality theory,
[0:04] and that's a very bad thing.
[0:06] SPEAKER_00: Hi, Paul Krugman here.
[0:09] SPEAKER_00: Most people watching this probably don't get the reference.
[0:13] SPEAKER_00: In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis,
[0:17] a number of governments did what economic textbooks say is
[0:24] exactly the wrong thing.
[0:25] SPEAKER_00: They slashed government spending in the face of mass unemployment.
[0:30] SPEAKER_00: And they justified this in part by arguing that although,
[0:34] SPEAKER_00: yeah,
[0:35] SPEAKER_00: sure,
[0:35] SPEAKER_00: if we slash spending and eliminate a bunch of jobs,
[0:39] SPEAKER_00: that should be bad,
[0:40] SPEAKER_00: could make things worse.
[0:42] never mind because it will improve confidence and that will
[0:45] lead to economic expansion.
[0:47] SPEAKER_00: I,
[0:47] SPEAKER_00: in an essay in 2010,
[0:50] SPEAKER_00: called this believing in the confidence theory,
[0:53] SPEAKER_00: one of the coinages that seemed to stick.
[0:57] SPEAKER_00: And of course, the confidence theory never arrived.
[1:00] Countries that created worse unemployment by engaging in
[1:04] austerity policies
[1:06] SPEAKER_00: suffered worse unemployment.
[1:07] SPEAKER_00: There was no rescue from improved confidence.
[1:11] SPEAKER_00: In this case,
[1:12] SPEAKER_00: our Secretary of Defense,
[1:14] SPEAKER_00: which is his legal title,
[1:16] SPEAKER_00: although he calls himself the Secretary of War,
[1:19] SPEAKER_00: continually argues that if only we get even more violent,
[1:26] SPEAKER_00: if only we do even more damage,
[1:29] SPEAKER_00: that this will somehow translate into success in Iran.
[1:35] SPEAKER_00: He clearly relishes the thought of violence against
[1:40] SPEAKER_00: himself,
[1:41] SPEAKER_00: and he's now holding prayer breakfasts,
[1:45] SPEAKER_00: and in his prayer breakfast,
[1:48] he called upon the Lord to support us in overwhelming violence
[1:54] of action against
[1:55] SPEAKER_00: those who deserve no mercy.
[1:57] SPEAKER_00: Boy, does this sound, I think this is deeply un-American, but anyway.
[2:02] SPEAKER_00: But aside from the sort of evilness,
[2:05] SPEAKER_00: I don't think there's any other way to put it,
[2:07] SPEAKER_00: of the world view,
[2:09] SPEAKER_00: how is this supposed to work?
[2:11] SPEAKER_00: If you look at the plans that are being,
[2:14] SPEAKER_00: or the ideas that are being rooted for using ground forces now,
[2:19] SPEAKER_00: and that's clearly very much sort of the next step here,
[2:23] SPEAKER_00: for using ground forces against Iran,
[2:25] SPEAKER_00: well,
[2:25] SPEAKER_00: yeah,
[2:26] SPEAKER_00: you can seize Karg Island,
[2:28] SPEAKER_00: although hanging onto it could be very expensive,
[2:30] SPEAKER_00: but
[2:31] SPEAKER_00: then what?
[2:31] You've cut off Iranian oil exports,
[2:33] we could do that anytime anyway,
[2:35] then what?
[2:36] SPEAKER_00: You can,
[2:39] SPEAKER_00: well,
[2:40] SPEAKER_00: try to occupy some of Iran,
[2:43] SPEAKER_00: but it's a,
[2:47] SPEAKER_00: the relevant coastline is well over a thousand kilometers long.
[2:52] SPEAKER_00: Missiles and drones can be fired from deep inside Iran.
[2:58] SPEAKER_00: 10,000 soldiers maybe,
[2:59] SPEAKER_00: is not remotely enough to secure the Persian Gulf,
[3:05] SPEAKER_00: let alone allow shipping to transit,
[3:07] SPEAKER_00: let alone allow tankers to transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
[3:10] SPEAKER_00: So this doesn't make any sense,
[3:12] unless you somehow think that the sheer act of violence will
[3:15] shock and awe Iran
[3:18] SPEAKER_00: into submission,
[3:20] SPEAKER_00: which,
[3:21] SPEAKER_00: if it was going to happen,
[3:22] SPEAKER_00: it would have happened already.
[3:23] SPEAKER_00: Clearly not on the cards.
[3:25] SPEAKER_00: Trump himself is, you know, Hexeth is all.
[3:29] SPEAKER_00: We are going to kill lots of people, basically.
[3:32] SPEAKER_00: Trump is vacillating.
[3:34] In his Truth Social post this morning,
[3:36] he started out by saying we are on the verge of
[3:40] SPEAKER_00: successful negotiations,
[3:41] and we'll get the straight open soon because we're having
[3:44] extremely good talks with
[3:45] SPEAKER_00: the Iranians,
[3:46] SPEAKER_00: which almost certainly.
[3:49] Trump,
[3:49] you know,
[3:50] other presidents have been accused of negotiating with
[3:52] themselves.
[3:53] SPEAKER_00: Trump is negotiating with his imaginary friends.
[3:56] There's no reason at all to believe that these talks are
[3:58] actually happening.
[4:00] SPEAKER_00: But he then pivots midway through the post,
[4:03] SPEAKER_00: to saying,
[4:05] SPEAKER_00: and if we don't get this,
[4:06] then we're going to start bombing civilian power plants and
[4:12] water supplies.
[4:14] SPEAKER_00: So give us what we want or we'll commit a massive,
[4:20] SPEAKER_00: massive war crime,
[4:22] SPEAKER_00: which I hope is not going to happen.
[4:26] But even if it did,
[4:30] why would you think this would open up the Strait of Hormuz?
[4:34] So it's this kind of lust for violence with no actual coherent
[4:43] story about how that
[4:45] SPEAKER_00: violence is going to produce results.
[4:49] SPEAKER_00: It's horrifying.
[4:51] SPEAKER_00: I don't know,
[4:51] SPEAKER_00: I really don't know how this ends,
[4:54] except that it does feel as if this is a quagmire largely in
[5:01] the minds of top Trump
[5:03] SPEAKER_00: officials,
[5:03] SPEAKER_00: who Trump himself and Hexeth,
[5:05] who having this utterly unshakable belief that hurting people
[5:14] will produce great
[5:15] SPEAKER_00: results,
[5:17] SPEAKER_00: respond to each failure
[5:19] of violence to produce results by getting even more destructive
[5:24] with no end game in sight.
[5:28] SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.

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