# Santa battling Trump's Tariffs & Melting Arctic Geopolitics: 2025 Global Trade Christmas Special

An episode of [Global Trade Deciphered](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1783566127), 23 Dec 2025, 19 min.

Audio: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2422711/episodes/18391178-santa-battling-trump-s-tariffs-melting-arctic-geopolitics-2025-global-trade-christmas-special.mp3

Send us Fan Mail In this special Christmas episode, host Justin Hayden Miller examines 2025's record-breaking global trade—surpassing $35 trillion—through the lens of Father Christmas and the challenges posed by Trump's tariffs, Arctic geopolitics, and climate change. Key Topics • Trump's tariffs and their impact on holiday imports, toys, and global supply chains • Melting Arctic ice opening new shipping routes (Northern Sea Route, Northwest Passage) amid rising US-Russia-China tensions and Trump's Greenland discussions • Geopolitical volatility from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East affecting energy and grain markets • Resilience in global trade despite barriers, with insights on Brexit customs rules and air cargo logistics Outlook A reflective year-end analysis on trade resilience, potential 2026 risks, and the evolving energy revolution. Track Santa's journey: NORADSanta.org Subscribe to Global Trade Deciphered for expert insights on international trade policy, geopolitics, and economic trends. Happy holidays! If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow. *Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered *Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

## Transcript

[0:01] Justin Hayden Miller: Welcome to Global Trade Deciphered.
[0:04] Justin Hayden Miller: I'm your host, Justin Hayden Miller.
[0:06] Justin Hayden Miller: Decoding the policies shaping global trade and emerging trends.
[0:12] Justin Hayden Miller: Hello everyone.
[0:20] Justin Hayden Miller: I wanted a Christmas wintry feel for this end of year bumper edition episode.
[0:25] Justin Hayden Miller: So went and got myself a cold, especially for the occasion.
[0:29] Justin Hayden Miller: The things I'll do in order to be authentic.
[0:32] Justin Hayden Miller: Bear with me and my froggy voice for today, please.
[0:35] Justin Hayden Miller: I've replaced the standard cup of coffee with a hot toddy grog.
[0:41] Justin Hayden Miller: But because I'm recording this midweek, unfortunately there's no scotch in it.
[0:45] Justin Hayden Miller: So it's actually worth getting a cold just to make these things occasionally.
[0:50] Justin Hayden Miller: They really are delicious.
[0:52] Justin Hayden Miller: Well anyway.
[0:55] Justin Hayden Miller: And what a year it's been, 2025.
[1:02] Justin Hayden Miller: On a number of levels, including on global trade, tackling the many obstacles, wars, climate change effects, and of course tariffs.
[1:13] Justin Hayden Miller: But what a resilient year as well.
[1:15] Justin Hayden Miller: Because even with these obstacles, world trade reached a record value exceeding 35 trillion, an increase of approximately 2.2 trillion or 7% from 2024.
[1:30] Justin Hayden Miller: In my previous episodes, I said that I wanted to look at world trade and global trade from different perspectives.
[1:37] Justin Hayden Miller: And that's precisely what I intend to do in today's episode.
[1:41] Justin Hayden Miller: Because I'm intending on analysing 2025's Global Trade Year through the eyes of Father Christmas.
[1:50] Justin Hayden Miller: Don't get me wrong, this is going to be a serious episode with some very serious points, so bear with me.
[1:56] Justin Hayden Miller: Remember, many businesses do much, if not most of their turnover over the Christmas and New Year period.
[2:05] Justin Hayden Miller: And that's no less the case for Santa Claus.
[2:08] Justin Hayden Miller: Remember, Father Christmas can deliver quicker than Jeff Bezos.
[2:13] Justin Hayden Miller: He doesn't need AI either.
[2:15] Justin Hayden Miller: He's been doing it for years, before even the computer was invented.
[2:20] Justin Hayden Miller: He doesn't leave a note telling you to pick it up, your presence at the local launderette, and he comes down the chimney or breaks and enters without any evidence whatsoever.
[2:31] Justin Hayden Miller: But poor Father Christmas has had a job on his hands in 2025 with geopolitical obstacles and Trump's tariffs.
[2:39] Justin Hayden Miller: Let's start with the geopolitical.
[2:42] Justin Hayden Miller: Father Christmas is associated with the North Pole, of course.
[2:46] Justin Hayden Miller: Many say that's where he's resident.
[2:48] Justin Hayden Miller: But 2025 has seen some major Arctic tensions brewing, which is making trade and Father Christmas's job even more difficult.
[3:00] Justin Hayden Miller: You see, I'm talking about important Arctic sea routes, offering shorter paths between Europe and Asia, or even North America.
[3:10] Justin Hayden Miller: This can reduce distances by using these Arctic routes of up to forty percent, compared to traditional routes going via the Suez Canal, for example.
[3:20] Justin Hayden Miller: And all this is getting attention and interest because of melting sea ice.
[3:26] Justin Hayden Miller: Climate change.
[3:27] Justin Hayden Miller: Whether it's for the better or worse, many see this as clearing routes in the northernmost parts of the northern hemisphere.
[3:35] Justin Hayden Miller: The melting ice clears shipping routes.
[3:38] Justin Hayden Miller: There are three in particular the Northern Sea Route, NSR, along Russia's coast, the Northwest Passage, the NWP, through Canada, and emerging transpolar sea routes across the central Arctic.
[3:55] Justin Hayden Miller: And so this melting ice is creating a new emerging element in world trade, but it's not as simple as that because the melting ice is actually creating obstacles rather than actually clearing them, because it's creating icebergs, and huge masses of non-moving ice are easier to avoid than smaller icebergs that manage to sink the Titanic, for example.
[4:17] Justin Hayden Miller: The Arctic seems to be heating up in more senses than one.
[4:22] Justin Hayden Miller: It's a mix, even a cauldron, of US, Russia, Chinese shipping interests, civil and even military, which creates new unpredictable elements.
[4:34] Justin Hayden Miller: This is just one example how apparent climate change is having a real impact on trade, geopolitics, and a mix of the two potentially concerning future world trade tensions.
[4:46] Justin Hayden Miller: And all this is happening in Father Christmas's backyard.
[4:51] Justin Hayden Miller: Question surely poses itself whether Father Christmas may one day need a Russian and US passport to be able to get these children's presence outside the Arctic at all.
[5:03] Justin Hayden Miller: Because Santa Claus may already be getting a US passport soon.
[5:08] Justin Hayden Miller: Countries, including Denmark, consider that Father Christmas's primary residence is not the North Pole at all, but Greenland.
[5:16] Justin Hayden Miller: Donald Trump in March 2025 addressing Greenlanders said, We strongly support your right to determine your own future.
[5:26] Justin Hayden Miller: And if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America.
[5:32] Justin Hayden Miller: This has often been portrayed as a completely crazy idea in media outside the United States.
[5:39] Justin Hayden Miller: But let me tell you that I heard Sir Richard Deerlove, who's the former head of UK intelligence MI6, say, I wonder whether Greenland really will at some point in the future join the United States.
[5:53] Justin Hayden Miller: There would be very strong reasons and huge benefit to the Greenlanders if they were a state of the United States.
[6:00] Justin Hayden Miller: And he went on to say, it does have a certain logic.
[6:05] Justin Hayden Miller: So Father Christmas could be an American citizen yet.
[6:10] Justin Hayden Miller: If Father Christmas is living in Greenland and producing his toys in Greenland, dispatching them throughout the world and notably to children in the United States, well of course this will have the added benefits that Trump's tariffs won't apply to Santa Claus's toys at all.
[6:26] Justin Hayden Miller: Because whether Santa Claus lives and manufactures his toys at the North Pole or Lapland, these places aren't part of the United States.
[6:36] Justin Hayden Miller: And US tariffs apply, especially with Trump's America First policy.
[6:41] Justin Hayden Miller: When on the second of April this year he applied Liberation Day tariffs.
[6:46] Justin Hayden Miller: But it is worth pointing out that his US trade deficit is reducing as a consequence.
[6:52] Justin Hayden Miller: So we need to wait a little bit longer.
[6:54] Justin Hayden Miller: 2026 will tell us whether this policy is working for good or not.
[6:59] Justin Hayden Miller: Because a lot of importations have been front-loaded.
[7:02] Justin Hayden Miller: People have imported early in order to avoid the tariffs.
[7:05] Justin Hayden Miller: We need to wait a little bit more time to see how that spans out, to see the medium and long-term trends, to assess the effect on the US economy and the world economy.
[7:16] Justin Hayden Miller: Because of Trump's new tariff rules, even if the toys are produced by Father Christmas in the North Pole, when he brings them over into the United States, at least a 10% tariff will apply.
[7:29] Justin Hayden Miller: The North Pole doesn't belong to a particular nation at all, but that doesn't get out of the tariff.
[7:35] Justin Hayden Miller: Let alone all the the admin that this is all creating for him.
[7:52] Justin Hayden Miller: And if the admin is not up to date and correct, when he brings those toys into the US or any other country that's applying these rules, Santa's sleigh is going to get impounded, and the presence are going to be blocked, and there are going to be lots of very unhappy children.
[8:08] Justin Hayden Miller: Trump surely can't afford that.
[8:10] Justin Hayden Miller: And therefore I wonder whether Father Christmas is really behind the US Supreme Court litigation on tariffs.
[8:18] Justin Hayden Miller: Why?
[8:19] Justin Hayden Miller: Because in my episode earlier this year with Peter Quinter, a respected US international trade lawyer, when we discussed together the US Supreme Court litigation and the chances that Trump's tariffs could be overturned, we discussed in that episode that you can listen to that the litigation that this all hangs around is Learning Resources Inc.
[8:39] Justin Hayden Miller: versus Trump.
[8:41] Justin Hayden Miller: And Learning Resources Inc.
[8:42] Justin Hayden Miller: is an Illinois-based educational toy company.
[8:46] Justin Hayden Miller: And the primary plaintiff in that US Supreme Court litigation challenging President Trump's tariffs.
[8:52] Justin Hayden Miller: You can listen to my discussion with Peter where we discuss the technical elements and where he provides an opinion on whether it's going to succeed or not.
[9:00] Justin Hayden Miller: But it's interesting that it's a small toy company, and larger firms like Mattel or Hasbro have basically stayed on the sidelines.
[9:09] Justin Hayden Miller: They're watching to see what happens.
[9:11] Justin Hayden Miller: Is Father Christmas behind in some way Learning Resources Inc.?
[9:15] Justin Hayden Miller: I don't know.
[9:17] Justin Hayden Miller: But what are Trump's own views on Christmas trade?
[9:20] Justin Hayden Miller: Defending his tariff measures, President Trump has said, Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of thirty dolls, and maybe two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more.
[9:34] Justin Hayden Miller: And on another occasion he said the young lady doesn't need thirty-seven dolls.
[9:38] Justin Hayden Miller: She could be very happy with two or three or four or five.
[9:42] Justin Hayden Miller: And you know what?
[9:44] Justin Hayden Miller: I think Santa Claus probably agrees with President Trump, not wanting to spoil children too much.
[9:51] Justin Hayden Miller: Materialism is great and good for the economy on condition that it's manufactured in the US, according to Trump.
[9:59] Justin Hayden Miller: But anyway, talking about sea lanes, etc., Father Christmas actually transports his toys not by sea but by air freight.
[10:08] Justin Hayden Miller: He shifts his stock by air using a sleigh and flying reindeers.
[10:13] Justin Hayden Miller: And therefore he he falls within the 1% of trade that is transported by air cargo.
[10:20] Justin Hayden Miller: I was I was at a Thanksgiving party this year.
[10:23] Justin Hayden Miller: I'm British, English, not American, as you can probably tell from my accent.
[10:28] Justin Hayden Miller: But I have some American friends and they invited me to a Thanksgiving party, which was really quite interesting.
[10:34] Justin Hayden Miller: And when I was there, an American lady asked me whether I was, you know, following Father Christmas's movements.
[10:41] Justin Hayden Miller: And of course I said, you know, I'm preparing for an episode on Father Christmas to whether she asked her if she had any information.
[10:48] Justin Hayden Miller: And she told me something that I genuinely didn't know.
[10:51] Justin Hayden Miller: In 1955, a Sears advertisement in a Colorado Springs newspaper misprinted a phone number meant for children to call Father Christmas Santa Claus.
[11:02] Justin Hayden Miller: By accident, the number rang the operations hotline of the Continental Air Defense Command of the United States, Conad at the time.
[11:11] Justin Hayden Miller: Colonel Schupp, the duty officer on the Air Defence Command, answered the call from a child asking for Santa Claus.
[11:19] Justin Hayden Miller: And he originally apparently he was a bit stern.
[11:22] Justin Hayden Miller: He thought it was a joke.
[11:23] Justin Hayden Miller: He wasn't amused by the idea.
[11:25] Justin Hayden Miller: You know, he's got an important job, you know, protecting the United States against nuclear war or whatever.
[11:31] Justin Hayden Miller: But he did soften when he realized that it was a genuine child, asking a j a genuine question.
[11:38] Justin Hayden Miller: And he played along and he explained where Santa Claus was in the sky with his sleigh, etc., on his radar or whatever that he was looking at.
[11:46] Justin Hayden Miller: And then he instructed his staff to give Santa sightings to the other children that were undoubtedly calling them the wrong number.
[11:54] Justin Hayden Miller: And they decided to turn this mishap into a public relations opportunity.
[11:58] Justin Hayden Miller: This has sparked the tradition that has continued since then, where the North American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD, tracks Santa Claus's movements by radar and satellite, and they they published this on the internet.
[12:13] Justin Hayden Miller: I'm following it, but it really comes alive on Christmas Eve, apparently.
[12:17] Justin Hayden Miller: And I do recommend that you check it out if you're not already aware of it.
[12:20] Justin Hayden Miller: It's NORADSanta.org.
[12:23] Justin Hayden Miller: I'll leave it in the show notes.
[12:24] Justin Hayden Miller: New regulations in the US are not Santa's only obstacles.
[12:30] Justin Hayden Miller: We've had Brexit.
[12:32] Justin Hayden Miller: And of course it depends, you know, how he comes into the United Kingdom, whether he comes in from the West or the East, as to what particular rules apply and tariffs apply, whatever.
[12:42] Justin Hayden Miller: But you know, he also has the border trade operating model, this UK customs regime that he now has to contend with, which is actually called bottom for some reason.
[12:54] Justin Hayden Miller: Well BTOM.
[12:56] Justin Hayden Miller: And this concerns food and the importation of animals and live animals.
[13:02] Justin Hayden Miller: Which is undoubtedly important for Father Christmas, because you know, coming in on his sleigh with the reindeer, you know, they're live animals.
[13:10] Justin Hayden Miller: So I mean, technically, he has to have an export health certificate for these reindeer, the EHC.
[13:16] Justin Hayden Miller: Because, you know, live animals, these reindeer, have to be accompanied not just by Father Christmas, but by an appropriate EHC signed by an official vet in the EU country of origin.
[13:30] Justin Hayden Miller: You know, question, you know, if he comes through Europe, uh does it originate from Europe?
[13:35] Justin Hayden Miller: You know, you've got all these issues to contend with.
[13:37] Justin Hayden Miller: And, you know, specific rules apply depending upon the animal species.
[13:42] Justin Hayden Miller: I mean, I've looked on the list and reindeers aren't listed there.
[13:45] Justin Hayden Miller: Not the flying variety anyway.
[13:47] Justin Hayden Miller: And he has to get a pre notification, he has to submit it common health entry document, a C H E D, at least one working day in advance.
[13:56] Justin Hayden Miller: So he has to do this at least by Christmas Eve.
[13:59] Justin Hayden Miller: So, you know, we're joking here, but it does illustrate that there is becoming more and more administration, more and more customs barriers throughout the world.
[14:12] Justin Hayden Miller: This is creating significant cost for a lot of businesses and delays that I discussed even in the last episode in respective CBAM.
[14:20] Justin Hayden Miller: I've spoken to a number of important companies exporting foodstuffs into the UK that were very, very concerned by this rule.
[14:30] Justin Hayden Miller: Now, the UK has phased this in.
[14:33] Justin Hayden Miller: There are no routine veterinary checks on the UK border side in order to expedite the process.
[14:40] Justin Hayden Miller: And there are ongoing UK-EU negotiations aiming to reduce or remove many of these requirements even further in the future.
[14:48] Justin Hayden Miller: But no real changes are yet in effect.
[14:51] Justin Hayden Miller: I discussed this with Richard Corbett, the former head of the Labour Party at the European Parliament.
[14:56] Justin Hayden Miller: We discussed this in detail together in our episode.
[15:00] Justin Hayden Miller: But Father Christmas is still confronted by this, and a lot of other companies are as well.
[15:05] Justin Hayden Miller: Looking back at 2025, how how do we label it?
[15:11] Justin Hayden Miller: It's a year marked by significant volatility.
[15:16] Justin Hayden Miller: Volatility on tariffs and major geopolitical turns in particular.
[15:21] Justin Hayden Miller: And energy markets, gas, petrol, etc., with different sanctions being applied.
[15:35] Justin Hayden Miller: We have turmoil in Gaza, created issues for shipping in the Red Sea and the surrounding areas.
[15:41] Justin Hayden Miller: Father Christmas has to contend with all this.
[15:44] Justin Hayden Miller: We all do, indirectly.
[15:46] Justin Hayden Miller: Many of the goods that we consume pass through these routes.
[15:50] Justin Hayden Miller: But at the same time, the economy's been very resilient against all this volatility.
[15:56] Justin Hayden Miller: The US didn't go into a major recession.
[15:58] Justin Hayden Miller: The European Union's pretty flat.
[16:00] Justin Hayden Miller: But if AI does not hold up, if it does not deliver, or too many AI companies go under this AI thing, which is you know a stick holding up the world economy, in my opinion, well the consequences will be very, very serious.
[16:16] Justin Hayden Miller: We're living an energy revolution, a renewable energy revolution.
[16:21] Justin Hayden Miller: These revolutions are so significant, as important as the Industrial Revolution, and several at the same time.
[16:28] Justin Hayden Miller: It seems to me that this is part of a growing bubble.
[16:33] Justin Hayden Miller: It's not a single bubble, it's like a bath, you know, you get in the bath, you you swish the water, there are lots of bubbles.
[16:38] Justin Hayden Miller: And sometimes when you put the soap in the bath, all the bubbles just pop and disappear.
[16:43] Justin Hayden Miller: There's a risk that this will happen in 2026.
[16:46] Justin Hayden Miller: I hope not.
[16:48] Justin Hayden Miller: What did Dickens say in A Town of Two Cities in the opening paragraph?
[16:52] Justin Hayden Miller: Best of times, the worst of times.
[16:54] Justin Hayden Miller: I do sometimes really believe that.
[16:57] Justin Hayden Miller: History repeating itself.
[16:59] Justin Hayden Miller: So as I've said, you know, Father Christmas has had his work cut out in 2025, but I'm not optimistic that it's going to be any easier for him in 2026.
[17:09] Justin Hayden Miller: In fact, I think it's going to be more difficult.
[17:12] Justin Hayden Miller: What does that mean?
[17:13] Justin Hayden Miller: Well, I just hope it's simply recessionary pressures and not worse than that.
[17:19] Justin Hayden Miller: Yeah, Father Christmas has got his work cut out.
[17:22] Justin Hayden Miller: And since I'm between projects at the moment, I'd love a client like Father Christmas.
[17:28] Justin Hayden Miller: He's got ever increasing issues.
[17:30] Justin Hayden Miller: He lives in a potential future conflict zone.
[17:33] Justin Hayden Miller: Trade and supply chains are subject to a major, major revolution.
[17:38] Justin Hayden Miller: I mean, of course, Father he was around for the Industrial Revolution, I'm sure.
[17:42] Justin Hayden Miller: Even he might be thinking this is nothing compared to that.
[17:46] Justin Hayden Miller: Yeah, I'd think he'd make a great client.
[17:48] Justin Hayden Miller: He he looks okay, he looks he looks nice, pleasant, probably pays his invoices on time.
[17:54] Justin Hayden Miller: So do contact me if you know how I might reach him.
[17:57] Justin Hayden Miller: If he's looking for a global trade advisor and strategist to cope with all the issues that we've been talking about today.
[18:04] Justin Hayden Miller: And despite the volatility and the tariffs, I'm going to wish you some very, very happy holidays.
[18:11] Justin Hayden Miller: It's been a really enjoyable year.
[18:13] Justin Hayden Miller: I've really enjoyed doing these podcasts.
[18:16] Justin Hayden Miller: I'm doing them a little bit more frequently now, but I hope you're enjoying them as much as I am.
[18:20] Justin Hayden Miller: I wish you a very happy Christmas, season greetings, and a lovely new year.
[18:25] Justin Hayden Miller: If you're listening to this, then thank you for having listened to the podcast from beginning to end.
[18:33] Justin Hayden Miller: The content of this podcast is intended only to provide an information resource of interest and does not constitute legal, tax, business, or financial advice of any kind.
[18:41] Justin Hayden Miller: Should you require advice, then you should engage an appropriately qualified person to provide you specific advisory services in the field.
[18:47] Justin Hayden Miller: The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this podcast are my own and do not necessarily represent the views, thoughts, or opinions of any law firm nor that of any third party, other person, company, or organization.
[18:57] Justin Hayden Miller: Stay tuned for the next episode.

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