# Iran War: Oil Crisis - First reactions

An episode of [Global Trade Deciphered](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1783566127), 2 Mar 2026, 12 min.

Audio: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2422711/episodes/18776528-iran-war-oil-crisis-first-reactions.mp3

Send us Fan Mail Iran Hormuz Crisis escalates and is now closed: US-Israel strikes trigger Iranian retaliation, IRGC warnings halt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil supply at risk). Brent crude prices surging, with analysts warning $100-150+ if disruptions persist. Major carriers (Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd) suspend transits—shipping chaos compounds delays and fuel costs. At the same time, Trump's defiant response to February Supreme Court ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs: 10% global import duty under Section 122 (effective Feb 24, 150 days max), with indications to hike to 15%. Shadow trade wars emerge via licensing schemes, potential fees, and workarounds bypassing oversight—adding volatility to already strained supply chains. Host Justin Hayden Miller (global trade strategist, ex-Big 4/ top law firm) unpacks the paradox: independent crises amplifying each other. Hear his prescient Nov 2025 warning (Episode 15 clip) on fuel spikes + tariffs—now playing out. Key takeaways & survival guide: Oil hedging, supply chain delays, tariff inflation, rethink strategy, vertical integration, renewables self-sufficiency, onshoring, hyperlocal model, navigate uncertainty, pre-clearance, licensing shifts, multipolar trade realignment Essential for business leaders, importers, CFOs facing compounded risks. We're in a gale—prepare for the hurricane. Disclaimer: Not legal/tax/financial/business advice—consult qualified professionals concerning your specific circumstances. If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow. *Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered *Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

## Transcript

[0:00] Justin Hayden Miller: I warned you last November that fuel spikes and further tariffs were coming.
[0:05] Justin Hayden Miller: The US and Israel are attacking Iran.
[0:08] Justin Hayden Miller: The Middle East situation is escalating.
[0:11] Justin Hayden Miller: Oil prices are exploding, with analysts' warning of spikes to $100 a barrel if tensions persist, or even $120, $150 or higher if there's a prolonged closure or blockade of the strait.
[0:25] Justin Hayden Miller: Trump's applying 15% global tariffs and a trade war is looming.
[0:31] Justin Hayden Miller: Uncertainty everywhere.
[0:33] Justin Hayden Miller: Because there is already a shadow trade war in play.
[0:37] Justin Hayden Miller: In this episode, I'll give you the playbook to help protect your business.
[0:42] Justin Hayden Miller: Deciphering the policies, trends, and geopolitics reshaping global trade.
[0:56] Justin Hayden Miller: Well, I turned on the news this morning, and the US-Israeli strikes are still continuing on Iran, triggering retaliatory actions.
[1:08] Justin Hayden Miller: And all this is giving rise to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
[1:13] Justin Hayden Miller: Oil prices Brent Crude surged 12% to around $82 a barrel in weekend trading, with 20% of global oil supply at risk.
[1:22] Justin Hayden Miller: MSC, Mersk, Hapak Lloyd were all suspending transits through the strait.
[1:28] Justin Hayden Miller: And at the same time, the US Supreme Court's February ruling striking down Trump's IEPA tariffs has sparked Trump's defiant 15% global tariff rate.
[1:39] Justin Hayden Miller: We'll interweave the Middle East escalation, adding petrol oil to the fire, which are turning supply chains upside down, driving oil prices up and threatening worldwide logistics.
[1:54] Justin Hayden Miller: With the tariff saga continuing, it's showing how each is amplifying the other.
[2:00] Justin Hayden Miller: Because they're all independent, these issues.
[2:02] Justin Hayden Miller: I'll unpack that paradox, layer in the Middle East conflict's real-time impacts, and wrapped with a unique take that might make you rethink, perhaps, your entire trade strategy.
[2:15] Justin Hayden Miller: Back in November 2025, in the episode 15 of the podcast, I advised businesses to prepare exactly for this type of scenario.
[2:27] Justin Hayden Miller: Listen to the clip of what I said precisely.
[2:30] Justin Hayden Miller: Which will create major uncertainty in the shipping industry.
[2:35] Justin Hayden Miller: Companies, you need to start considering stress testing your operations, factoring in potential significant fuel cost spikes, say of up to say of 30%.
[2:47] Justin Hayden Miller: Also factor in potential tariffs.
[2:51] Justin Hayden Miller: Prescient, predictive.
[2:54] Justin Hayden Miller: In today's episode, we'll unpack how these dual drivers intersect and why that advice from five months ago is the reason why you should be considering what you should do next.
[3:06] Justin Hayden Miller: Remember the paradox bomb I introduced in a previous episode?
[3:12] Justin Hayden Miller: Well, another one's coming up.
[3:14] Justin Hayden Miller: Because whilst many people and countries are happy, even delighted with the US Supreme Court's decision limiting President Trump's toolbox on tariffs, well, to say the least, it adds layers of volatility and unpredictability.
[3:31] Justin Hayden Miller: It even creates the risk of more trade wars.
[3:34] Justin Hayden Miller: And today's developments and what's happening in the Middle East means oil volatility from Hormuz threats highlight just how fuel and trade tariff risks can compound very quickly.
[3:49] Justin Hayden Miller: Companies no longer have a choice.
[3:51] Justin Hayden Miller: Proactive scenario planning is no longer an option.
[3:55] Justin Hayden Miller: It's obvious that risks are mounting, but the solutions, they're not straightforward anymore.
[4:02] Justin Hayden Miller: This demands a strategic rethink by multinationals.
[4:06] Justin Hayden Miller: Let's start with the hottest and most important development, the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, that have escalated into open conflict now.
[4:15] Justin Hayden Miller: Iran has retaliated with missile attacks on US bases and Israeli positions and even other countries.
[4:22] Justin Hayden Miller: The situation's escalating.
[4:24] Justin Hayden Miller: And the Revolutionary Guards have warned vessels that no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz, effectively disrupting or threatening to halt traffic through this vital trade choke point.
[4:40] Justin Hayden Miller: Of course, the Strait of Hormuz handles about 20 million barrels of oil daily.
[4:46] Justin Hayden Miller: That's roughly 20% of global supply.
[4:49] Justin Hayden Miller: And that's oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE.
[4:58] Justin Hayden Miller: Oil prices are already reacting, and Brent went up to $82, as I mentioned.
[5:04] Justin Hayden Miller: That's around about 12%.
[5:05] Justin Hayden Miller: I was on the marine traffic sites this morning just seeing what's happening there, and I've noticed that there seem to be many, many ships anchored and waiting around the strait.
[5:16] Justin Hayden Miller: Disruption of oil around this route is most likely to hit India.
[5:21] Justin Hayden Miller: It imports a huge amount of its oil through this route.
[5:25] Justin Hayden Miller: But also China can import up around 40% of its oil through it.
[5:30] Justin Hayden Miller: So whilst the US surely doesn't want to see, you know, increased oil prices, because that gives rise to inflation and that could create political issues for Trump at home, the US might nevertheless see this as a double-edged sword.
[5:44] Justin Hayden Miller: Because China is probably going to suffer more than the US because of any disruptions of oil in this region.
[5:51] Justin Hayden Miller: But we've got Mersk, we've got MSC, we've got Hapag Lloyd, all suspending movement of their ships through the strait at the moment.
[6:01] Justin Hayden Miller: And as we've seen through the decades, these energy shocks feed directly into trade volatility.
[6:08] Justin Hayden Miller: But nevertheless, significant shipping costs only have a small effect on the end price of a product.
[6:15] Justin Hayden Miller: We discussed that in a previous episode with Simon Ward.
[6:18] Justin Hayden Miller: It's more of a question of the supply of the oil itself and the delays that are the real issue.
[6:24] Justin Hayden Miller: And this is why it intersects with US trade policy.
[6:28] Justin Hayden Miller: What are my takeaways?
[14:26] Justin Hayden Miller: I see Trump, his ideas of circumventing legal obstacles that he's encountered.
[14:32] Justin Hayden Miller: I think the consequence of it is what I would describe as shadow trade wars.
[14:38] Justin Hayden Miller: They're going to be even less explicit.
[14:40] Justin Hayden Miller: I'm just thinking about this now.
[14:42] Justin Hayden Miller: I hadn't thought of it before.
[14:44] Justin Hayden Miller: As a trade war, you imagine two armies conventional.
[14:48] Justin Hayden Miller: I think the trade wars are going to become less and less conventional.
[14:52] Justin Hayden Miller: Guerrilla trade wars, less evident, less clear, less explicit.
[14:59] Justin Hayden Miller: Shadow trade wars.
[15:01] Justin Hayden Miller: Using licenses and emergencies where it is possible to bypass oversight, create even more volatility and opaqueness than the overt tariffs that existed previously.
[15:13] Justin Hayden Miller: What I have seen throughout my career is that many companies hold off for a while and then eventually embed these risks into their pricing.
[15:22] Justin Hayden Miller: That's the worry.
[15:23] Justin Hayden Miller: And if companies don't do that correctly, they can potentially price themselves out of the market.
[15:28] Justin Hayden Miller: These shadow wars that I'm saying exist now, I believe they're forcing multipolar shifts.
[15:34] Justin Hayden Miller: They'll accelerate an end to the world-based order that Mark Carney spoke of recently.
[15:39] Justin Hayden Miller: It will accelerate multipolar trade arrangements into different camps that Mark Carney predicted.
[15:46] Justin Hayden Miller: We're in a sea storm, and businesses cannot necessarily fight against those trade winds anymore.
[15:52] Justin Hayden Miller: It's all very well being a consultant saying, you know, I can tell you what to do and you can get ahead of your competitors.
[15:58] Justin Hayden Miller: I say sometimes it's necessary to take your sails down and just follow the wind and the currents until the gale dies down a bit.
[16:08] Justin Hayden Miller: The CEO, the CFO, the the biggest responsibility, the captain of the ship, his or her biggest job is now to ensure that the ship doesn't run into the rocks.
[16:19] Justin Hayden Miller: Uncertainty with the Middle East conflict, uncertainty as to potential closure of the Strait of Ormuz.
[16:26] Justin Hayden Miller: There's uncertainty now in respect of fuel pricing.
[16:29] Justin Hayden Miller: There's uncertainty because of physical trade routes, shipping routes.
[16:34] Justin Hayden Miller: There's uncertainty because of delays in these routes as to when supplies will be delivered.
[16:40] Justin Hayden Miller: The standard solutions here are, you know, map your exposure, analyze oil prices, supply chain delays, and hedge fuel prices.
[16:49] Justin Hayden Miller: We're almost a little bit late now.
[16:52] Justin Hayden Miller: Now I think, and this is may well be an eventual solution, is that companies are so tired of putting out the fire on these issues and not knowing what to do and jumping left and realizing they should have jumped right, that they should be considering becoming self-sufficient in risky areas, where outsourcing can't always solve the problem.
[17:14] Justin Hayden Miller: I'm thinking vertical integration of renewables.
[17:17] Justin Hayden Miller: If you look at all these AI companies in the US, they're creating their own energy provision systems, their own generators.
[17:25] Justin Hayden Miller: And I'm sure it's because of this.
[17:26] Justin Hayden Miller: When you're dependent on anything, you're dependent on it.
[17:30] Justin Hayden Miller: Rather than to solve the problem of the thing in front of you, consider how to reduce your dependence on it.
[17:37] Justin Hayden Miller: That necessitates major strategic business decisions.
[17:43] Justin Hayden Miller: Because you need to go to specific lawyers and advisors concerning your specific issues.
[17:49] Justin Hayden Miller: And I'd certainly be happy to help you.
[17:51] Justin Hayden Miller: But I believe that what countries should be as regards the US, for example, what they should be considering is whether it's in their interest to get to pre-clear licenses.
[18:01] Justin Hayden Miller: Will pre-clearance help you?
[18:03] Justin Hayden Miller: Acting now rather than later?
[18:04] Justin Hayden Miller: Potentially shifting into free exempt categories for licenses, if it's possible.
[18:10] Justin Hayden Miller: You know, I I do believe that the tax should follow the business.
[18:14] Justin Hayden Miller: And another consequence of all this disruption, etc., is people are changing their business models.
[18:19] Justin Hayden Miller: They're changing their business in order to suit taxes and tariffs.
[18:23] Justin Hayden Miller: I suppose that's what Trump wants.
[18:25] Justin Hayden Miller: He wants people to change their business model and set up in the United States.
[18:29] Justin Hayden Miller: But what I would be saying to businesses is consider how you can extract yourself from these issues in the first place.
[18:36] Justin Hayden Miller: Go to the route.
[18:37] Justin Hayden Miller: If you're dependent upon supply chains to get you energy, can you source that locally in order to circumvent those supply chains completely?
[18:45] Justin Hayden Miller: And with renewable energy, that's potentially becoming more possible.
[18:50] Justin Hayden Miller: And it's no coincidence.
[18:52] Justin Hayden Miller: I really do believe that the US knows full well that if they can't if companies can't get their energy through the Strait of Hormuz, well the US can just sell more LNG to them potentially.
[19:02] Justin Hayden Miller: Actually create a market for them.
[19:04] Justin Hayden Miller: Switch to a hyperlocal business model.
[19:08] Justin Hayden Miller: And what does that mean?
[19:08] Justin Hayden Miller: It essentially means onshoring.
[19:10] Justin Hayden Miller: And that's the tendency at the moment.
[19:12] Justin Hayden Miller: I've been saying it for months, I've been saying it for over a year, two years, several years.
[19:16] Justin Hayden Miller: It will happen.
[19:19] Justin Hayden Miller: We're in a gale.
[19:20] Justin Hayden Miller: Don't be caught out.
[19:23] Justin Hayden Miller: Prepare for a hurricane.
[19:31] Justin Hayden Miller: Thanks for having listened to the podcast.
[19:34] Justin Hayden Miller: The content of this podcast is intended only to provide an information resource of interest and does not constitute legal, tax, business, or financial advice of any kind.
[19:42] Justin Hayden Miller: Should you require advice, then you should engage an appropriately qualified person to provide you specific advisory services in the field.
[19:47] Justin Hayden Miller: The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this podcast are my own, and do not necessarily represent the views, thoughts, or opinions of any law firm, nor that of any third party, other person, company, or organization.
[19:56] Justin Hayden Miller: Stay tuned for the next episode.

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