# Können die Babys von heute 100 Jahre alt werden? Prognosen mit José C. Andraz Santacruz & Nina Ruge

An episode of [staYoung - Der Longevity-Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1729988637), 31 Oct 2025, 22 min.

Audio: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO3165748490.mp3

Heute spreche ich mit José Carlos Andraz Santacruz vom Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung in Rostock über die Grenzen der Lebenserwartung. Oft wird gefragt, ob wir dank moderner Longevity-Therapien 120 oder gar 150 Jahre alt werden können – doch darum geht es der seriösen Forschung nicht. Im Mittelpunkt steht nicht die Lebensverlängerung um jeden Preis, sondern die Frage, wie wir länger gesund bleiben und die Zeit des Leidens im Alter verkürzen können. José Carlos erklärt, warum die Lebenserwartung in wohlhabenden Ländern zwar weiter steigt, sich ihr Tempo aber deutlich verlangsamt – und warum 100 Jahre für die meisten von uns wohl eine Illusion bleiben. In dieser Folge sprechen wir u.a. über folgende Themen: - Warum zielt Longevity-Forschung nicht auf extreme Lebensverlängerung, sondern auf mehr gesunde Lebensjahre ab? - Wie unterscheiden sich Lebensverlängerung und echte Langlebigkeit in der wissenschaftlichen Definition? - Wieso variieren Lebenserwartungen so stark je nach Geburtsort und Land? - Warum stieg die Lebenserwartung im frühen 20. Jahrhundert besonders stark an? - Welche Rolle spielten sauberes Wasser, Impfungen und Antibiotika für diesen rasanten Anstieg? - Warum verlangsamt sich der Zugewinn an Lebensjahren seit den 1990er-Jahren deutlich? - Inwiefern beeinflussen hohe Einkommen und Lebensstandard die Lebenserwartung – und wo liegen ihre Grenzen? - Welche Bedeutung haben neue medizinische Therapien, Pandemien oder soziale Veränderungen für zukünftige Lebenserwartungen? - Haben wir den Höhepunkt der Lebenserwartung bereits erreicht – oder gibt es noch Potenzial für Zuwächse? - Warum bleibt das Ziel der Longevity-Forschung, die Zeit des Leidens am Lebensende zu verkürzen, wichtiger als die reine Zahl der Lebensjahre? Weitere Informationen zu José Carlos Andrade Santacruz findest du hier: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en https://sites.google.com/view/joandrade Du interessierst dich für Gesunde Langlebigkeit (Longevity) und möchtest ein Leben lang gesund und fit bleiben, dann folge mir auch auf den sozialen Kanälen bei Instagram, TikTok, Facebook oder YouTube. https://www.instagram.com/nina.ruge.official https://www.tiktok.com/@nina.ruge.official https://www.facebook.com/NinaRugeOffiziell https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOe2d1hLARB60z2hg039l9g Disclaimer: Ich bin keine Ärztin und meine Inhalte ersetzen keine medizinische Beratung. Bei gesundheitlichen Fragen wende dich bitte an deinen Arzt/deine Ärztin. STY-244

## Transcript

[0:04] Willkommen bei Stay Young. Wie oft ich gefragt werde, ob
[0:08] ich denn meine 120 oder 150 Jahre alt werden zu können, wenn
[0:12] ich denn alles nutze, was an Long Gravity Empfehlungen und
[0:15] Therapien auf dem Markt ist. Wie schade, denke ich dann jedes
[0:19] Mal long gerity. Die Vokabel sollte ich nicht
[0:22] mehr benutzen, denn Ihre Bedeutung Langlebigkeit ist ja
[0:26] ganz nah bei Lebensverlängerung. Das Versprechen Biohacker wie
[0:31] Brian Johnson, aber darum geht es der seriösen Forschung ja
[0:35] nicht. Es geht darum, im Alltag die
[0:38] lange Phase des Leidens an diversen Alterskrankheiten
[0:40] drastisch zu verkürzen, es geht darum, länger gesund zu bleiben,
[0:44] und jetzt hat eine Studie sehr nüchtern Klarheit geschaffen.
[0:49] Ihr Autor arbeitet am Max-Planck-Institut für
[0:52] demografische Forschung in Rostock.
[0:54] Er ist also kein Experte für die Biologie des Alterns, sondern
[0:58] Statistiker, und er heißt josé Carlos Andraz Santa Cruz.
[1:03] Willkommen bei Stay Young Mary, Welcome josé.
[1:06] Lose. Ach was denken Sie, wie alt
[1:09] werden Sie selber werden können? Thank good question and it willy
[1:14] the pants and way you leave. It's what you was one so for
[1:19] example, i was one in nineteen nineteen one and i'm from
[1:25] equador and now I'm leaven in Germany so here i go to speck to
[1:29] leaf eighty a years how if i what in a spin for example, i
[1:34] would be nine to one years or if i good live in the US.
[1:38] A good be more like eighty six years, so it really to pants,
[1:41] but right now. It's they that I'm live in
[1:43] Germany, so my expectation is to live about eightyears.
[1:48] You should a my data ses seventy eight for mail.
[1:54] Yep, up so this data that you have it's on you you the proge
[1:58] so it's for i specific year and we what we do in this research
[2:04] is you see not call for the proge that the segeel is?
[2:08] Full win people so that's what you have this disripance is late
[2:12] it on, i will explain the differences between this
[2:15] approaches because i can it this be of the approaches we're no,
[2:18] it's is we're we'll the us but we have measure and gabity with
[2:22] this all the approaches this it's a generations.
[2:27] That's really interesting because win you're looking and
[2:30] to also ich bleib in deutsch i have to speak english this
[2:33] question we didnt talk about befor.
[2:37] When I'm looking in all the Statistics, Witcher, published
[2:41] and witch are really evidence spaced you you are reading that
[2:46] a man in Germany will expect 7 t eight years now and you say 8 t
[2:53] eight okay that's we will talk about.
[2:59] Die verbreitete Auffassung, dass die Babys, die jetzt geboren
[3:02] werden, 100 Jahre alt werden. Das stimmt nicht.
[3:08] That's actually a tab one to unsor because in all research we
[3:14] have a look the life aspect to see for a people born and tille
[3:18] the it to tho eben to thosen and in not there to get this
[3:23] astimates we will in it some past information of mortality
[3:29] about this people we to means that we can really pit the.
[3:33] What is going to happen to do's that are born today, but what we
[3:38] see is that for do's that we're born in the two thousand, it's a
[3:44] likely treach and average of one hundred years is what we can see
[3:49] now we the caring epicans that we have and.
[3:52] Likely you see. Yes, ok.
[3:57] Was heißt das denn eigentlich im Jahr?
[3:59] 2025 beträgt die durchschnittliche
[4:02] Lebenserwartung in Deutschland für Frauen also nach meinen
[4:07] Daten 83 Jahre und für Männer 78,5 und vielleicht noch kurz in
[4:13] der Schweiz Frauen, da ist noch höher, knapp 86 Jahre und Männer
[4:19] 82. Das gilt jetzt nur für Babys,
[4:24] die 20 / 25 geboren werden, für die Älteren, über die sie ja
[4:30] geforscht haben, gilt das nicht, oder ja.
[4:34] This is right. So in auf Research, we
[4:39] investigate an teel Dolls borning to 1000 that means that
[4:42] now day to right. So we can not we tell anything
[4:48] about do's born after to tholson you because we don't have the
[4:51] evidence and as i as i set. Bevor in order to predict
[4:56] they're like a spect and see we know some pass data
[5:01] passmortality data about discal hort and have data about discal
[5:06] hort, so it's if in more challenge in to predic so we are
[5:10] more conservative and we just a stop in do's born. 2000.
[5:17] Jetzt lassen Sie unsere Zuschauer ihnen verstehen, wie
[5:21] sie zu diesen Zahlen gekommen sind.
[5:23] Sie haben, das muss ich vorneweg sagen, nur die Lebenserwartung
[5:26] in Ländern mit hohen Einkommen betrachtet, aber dafür in 23
[5:31] Ländern, und das über den Zeitraum von 100 Jahren, also
[5:35] von 1900 bis 2000. Wie haben Sie gearbeitet?
[5:40] So or study lux at the lux at people borem betreen
[5:44] nightinghunded and two thousand as II Menschen, and we know this
[5:48] people the cross twenty three h incom countries for example,
[5:52] Germany, Japan, the US widin Australia, Amon oders and we
[5:58] focus and cohor at aspekt and see this measure and you have i
[6:02] good proble mega this different betreen this period measers and
[6:08] cohor measers. So they're two ways to metal
[6:10] ingabity and will they're mini measures that this is wild use
[6:14] measures and the first one is call a period approach we's a
[6:18] saintshally it give in the gear that's say twenty twenty five,
[6:22] we combine the mortality information of or generations
[6:27] that are alive in that time right, but the is of here is
[6:31] that this met of the zooms that everyone will face the same
[6:35] mortality but for exam. The baby is that we're porn in
[6:40] twenty twenty five this metal, the suums at the mortality
[6:43] patents, we'll be the same as doesboard in nightinfip what is
[6:49] not realistic right, but the still this is used for metric
[6:52] specialy when an alicen trends and and also to have a snapshots
[6:56] of the calling mortality situation what we're have down
[7:00] in this research is lucat then we'n jevity from a cochord
[7:04] perspektive of from a cochord the proach.
[7:07] So essentialy we take a look at do's generations or cofers that
[7:12] we're porn in a specific gare and then we fall with them until
[7:16] every one is that and then we compute the live aspectance but
[7:21] what is the problem with this approach is that we're really
[7:24] need to wait a long time to that to happen ride that's an is you
[7:29] and that's why in a research we use for casting me to don't just
[7:34] to the essentialy. To sensualy predict future
[7:38] mortality in not that to estimate, so we predict how this
[7:42] cochor it's go it to live and them from that we can computer
[7:46] the life a spect and see in this cochor the proge genau so say in
[7:50] that we calculate this life a spect and see for this twenty
[7:55] three hi incom conchers from this cochor the proge.
[7:59] And what is mortality forcasting like what what executing we to
[8:03] we this with this metals to complete this mortality of
[8:06] discords so this is a statistical technics that make
[8:11] inform predicions about what's going to be the future live span
[8:16] of this people based on post and corinne mortality information
[8:21] and in on research particulity to in shar that the results are
[8:25] brabus. We don't us only one method, but
[8:29] instat we use six metadologies for casting metadologies to have
[8:35] this resorts and we see consistance he am among them
[8:38] this metadologies we do use some of them they are wellestabies
[8:42] inkluion the population forecast from the United nations and
[8:48] particulity the or population prospekt, but or so some cadin h
[8:52] new. Developments immortality
[8:54] forecasting. Very complicated, bitte für den
[8:58] Leiden verständlich und kurz erklärt.
[9:02] Also ein Grundkurs in Statistik, Sie haben ja festgestellt, dass
[9:06] sich der Anstieg der Lebenserwartung in diesen 100
[9:10] Jahren von 1900 bis 2000, dass sich der deutlich verlangsamt
[9:14] hat, dieser Anstieg, wie haben sie das gemessen?
[9:18] Erklären Sie uns das einfach. So.
[9:21] What we Beat was essentialy looking the differency live
[9:25] aspectancy from one cohort to the next one and means like the
[9:29] difference between the cohort that was war in nightine
[9:32] hundred, and then we the nighting oh one right and then
[9:36] we do we every cohort from nightine hundred to two thousand
[9:42] from the hort piot and then we can just the split them in
[9:45] different piots, but then we take the abberage of this
[9:49] differences. Right, so the abriage of this
[9:52] differences in cochord live aspectancey tell us how quickly
[9:57] oh how slowly live aspectancey is rising is incrising, for
[10:01] example, in suitsolence people born do in the first they cate
[10:05] of the twenty centry gain about a extra mons of live per
[10:11] cochord, so the interpretation of this is so one born in and
[10:16] nightine o one live on abrage. 8.
[10:20] Mons longer that some one that was born in nighting hundred,
[10:26] but for those born in nighting nighties the games it's only
[10:31] about two mons, no two mons precored also the same some one
[10:36] born in nighting nighting one like me for examput we live
[10:40] reaffly two mons longer that those born in nighting nighty so
[10:44] think we can see that desilarish bevor was ain mons.
[10:48] In itch colhart, but now is just to month.
[10:52] Der steilste Anstieg der Lebenserwartung war also bei den
[10:55] Menschen, die zwischen 1919 138 geboren worden sind, nämlich.
[11:01] Die kamen von 62 Jahren Lebenserwartung auf rund 80
[11:07] Jahre im Jahr 1938 wie erklärt man sich diesen steilen Anstieg?
[11:16] This astipes astipestingqueeze is mossle because in the past
[11:23] there, we're hudge games in and gabity do you to the hudge
[11:28] improvements in the mortality of child and youngerages and this
[11:34] was do you to clean impromance in cleanwater impromance in
[11:39] sanitation, impromance in baxination and son.
[11:43] So we have more children that's surbived in to adocut right, so
[11:48] see it's we have more survivers that average ageed that inquis
[11:53] raptaly because you we have like more people live in longer and
[11:56] stat of juice leving one or two or two years, so this improvment
[12:01] this you'd improvment in infant and chilmortality made that this
[12:06] call or life spect and see inquis as soke weak.
[12:11] So antibiotics and vaxination. Yes.
[12:14] Yes. Nach 1938 hat sich das dann
[12:18] unglaublich dramatisch verlangsamt.
[12:22] Die Verlängerung unserer Lebenserwartung wird das jetzt
[12:26] noch weiter runtergehen. So are predicture shows that
[12:31] inquision and javity for the cochors born between 1939 and
[12:36] 2010 is slowin down. About three seven percent to two
[12:41] percent compar we they cruised that we so in the airly twenty
[12:45] century and for the thosmore after two thousen it's really
[12:50] hard to say what we have because of cors future games, we'll the
[12:55] pan on factors like new medical trimins we're not we will face
[13:02] like new pandemix new epidemix and also social change is right
[13:06] so. There's can affect this future
[13:10] live aspect on see can have on impact or big impact on them,
[13:14] but we the evident to we have to they we can only say that it is
[13:18] low down for the callhort up born up to.
[13:21] Two thousand we have to repeat children who are born in two
[13:27] thousand, they will not reach the hundred.
[13:30] Years, it's not like a to reach one hundred years.
[13:34] Ja, okay that's what we offen are hearing.
[13:38] Ja, so der medizinische Fortschritt, aber der geht ja,
[13:41] das hast du ja auch gerade gesagt, immer weiter.
[13:43] Auch schwerkranke Leben mit Hilfe der High Tech Medizin
[13:47] länger, warum schlägt sich das in den Daten zur Lebenserwartung
[13:52] nicht so stark nieder? Yes in diff actually we included
[13:57] the midcalet bences that we have seen so far because are
[14:01] predictions take into concideration.
[14:04] That bases that we of served until until now right, so for
[14:09] example improvements intreating card you basquarial decises over
[14:13] the last day i concidered in hour predictions of life
[14:18] aspectancy for the cohors born to 1000.
[14:21] Wir haben sozusagen den Peak der Lebenserwartung quasi erreicht.
[14:27] Und bei welchem Alter könnte der liegen?
[14:31] So we're not see in that's live aspect and see we're if he to
[14:35] selling that there's there's a limit but instant we have seen
[14:39] that or do the pays and and jbt has the crises has a slow down,
[14:46] no compared, we they we the pass they kates live aspect and see o
[14:50] people born up to do those it is a still inquisy so we're not say
[14:53] in that there's a limit we's say that is inquisition that a lover
[14:57] pase. Sehr sehr langsam.
[15:00] Very very. Slowly hat 2 sehr interessante
[15:03] Zahlen, das heißt, wenn sämtliche Herz, Kreislauf,
[15:06] Erkrankungen verhindert werden könnten, dann würde die
[15:08] Lebenserwartung in Deutschland auch in der Schweiz um circa 4
[15:12] bis 6 Jahre ansteigen und würden sämtliche Krebserkrankungen
[15:16] vermieden, dann rund 3 bis 4 Jahre, können sie dem zustimmen?
[15:21] As i Menschen before this kind of analysies how's going down
[15:24] use in a pure, the proge no and not for in the beat like
[15:29] callhorts that that what we doing in no research actually
[15:33] and as i Menschen before I research Fokus on mashually gp
[15:39] from this callhort perspektive, so in this go, this what we have
[15:43] to see in is the mortality is keeping profi in of a time that
[15:47] we can't not break it down by a specific coses of that.
[15:51] But we a zoom impromance we have in oper, but we have down is
[15:56] some extreme szenarios and so you can you metin wabbleing the
[16:00] pace of the rate of improvment that we have for custed what is
[16:05] i extreme Szenario no and perhaps so discoveries of
[16:11] medical discoveries and son and what we see is that in this case
[16:17] of extreme Szenario. Then one jevity for cochers borm
[16:21] between nighting to in I'm in two thousand good.
[16:24] Be about triponate mons per cochord so we the riginal for
[16:29] i'll say that when that we the we use it's from two point 5 to
[16:34] two point 5 mons per cochord, but in this such extreme
[16:38] Szenario, we would have triponate mons so a still and
[16:42] there this szenario we're not reaching the previews.
[16:46] The previews is you all or the previews pace on and javity that
[16:49] we so the big eating of the twenty century.
[16:52] The hundred twenty or hundred 50 life expectency it's far away
[16:58] and. It.
[17:01] Welche Reaktionen gab's eigentlich, nachdem sie ihre
[17:03] Studie veröffentlicht haben? And this is a great question and
[17:09] there's feen a lot of interest on this topic and and the
[17:14] interest has been. From both a reserters and orso
[17:18] media like newspaper is blogs, pauls, social media and so on i
[17:23] really so the news. The excitaly we have reach more
[17:29] them one, one hundred and Fifty newspaper so so I'll have people
[17:33] and social media i'll talking about this topic because it's
[17:35] it's weed relevant. And and this is because and the
[17:39] a studies sujested that live a spect on see with just keep rice
[17:43] in in study pase no, we will rice like forever, but we have
[17:48] show and that this is not the case and i'ch really this in
[17:51] quease is slow insown and that's mics barry attraktive are
[17:56] research because we show abidance that this is willy
[17:59] happening and and that's what i think it's all will it it
[18:03] bringing out of interest like raus.
[18:06] Median and also researchers. Wie es denn grundsätzlich an den
[18:10] Ergebnissen ihrer Arbeit interessiert?
[18:12] So this stop big. I should it this this resules
[18:15] this this reseage my is a lot of a lot of rups like policy makers
[18:19] to design social programms, also aation planers because it triat
[18:26] to know how on the retime and save and should the last and
[18:29] also hell car systems because the and they should repare for
[18:32] more all the page and try. For example, if people live
[18:36] longer governance, my I'd just they are retiming h to expand
[18:41] calicer services, but it orsomoters at individual level
[18:47] at the personal level because me, for example, no we'll have
[18:52] on we mic leave help us to make be live choices like when i we
[18:58] going to get marriot whenner to have kids and when to have kids
[19:02] how much to say for reterment. Or he'ven how along with my one
[19:05] to key work, it's a it's not on the institution.
[19:09] It's also they in the beat or level that this results matters.
[19:14] I did understand right that you expect achty 8.
[19:17] Yes. It's anony yes.
[19:20] I if I live can we in Germany. Ok, it's the really a different.
[19:29] Ok, letzte frage becomes them. Dass sie Statistik zu Ihrem
[19:34] Beruf gemacht haben, das ist ja für viele eine ganz schreckliche
[19:37] Materie. So ganz.
[19:38] Trocken well i see myself, Moss the mugrofir ruther dan i
[19:46] statistition but a user statistical tool so a
[19:50] statistical methods to understands help population
[19:53] change of a time. And see's my backround is
[19:56] aneconomic and econometrics and all so i work in the statistical
[20:01] office in my contry for mod and five years.
[20:03] I was all was love to working with data and and statistical
[20:08] methods and used them to produce solid evidence to also relevant
[20:13] questims so what really saids me now is we naval to bring this
[20:19] data this statistical methods into my reserching mortality.
[20:23] And some how explorer how will and jebity is going to a orb.
[20:29] And we can relax a little bit. The one hundred twenty one
[20:33] hundred fifty, we will not reach, but tell me women who are
[20:38] born like you in ninety ninety One with h will Bay Reach what?
[20:44] As i set, but from people that what borning ninety one.
[20:49] The pendin and the contry they live that we're we're like a
[20:53] deering that's back to see you right in Germany is achti 8 five
[20:58] years. Woman.
[21:00] Woman. At the same like man.
[21:04] Man is achti 8 years woman achti achti.
[21:10] Five ok, only have a here. So we.
[21:12] Have black for a man, it's surrutly astimation because also
[21:16] in all research we focus mosley on women, so it's like for men
[21:22] it's anastimation, but for women it's what we that we a real of
[21:26] served in in all research, but of corrs all was like aspect to
[21:32] see for women, it's is is kind of the one for man.
[21:37] Ok, vielen, vielen Dank, josé. Vom Max-Planck-Institut für
[21:42] demografische Forschung in Rostock, josé Carlos Andra St.
[21:46] Panta Cruz Dankeschön, es war sehr.
[21:49] Spannend, bitteschön. Danke fürs Zuhören.
[21:52] Ich hoffe diese Folge hat dir gefallen.
[21:54] Weitere Informationen findest du wie immer in den Shownotes, wenn
[21:59] du etwas in dieser Folge gelernt hast und diesen Podcast
[22:02] unterstützen möchtest, würde ich mich über eine Bewertung freuen.
[22:06] Damit hilfst du mir und anderen Zuhörern, dass dieser Podcast
[22:09] und seine Inhalte leichter gefunden werden.
[22:12] Besuch mich auch auf meinen anderen Kanälen bei Instagram,
[22:16] tik tok, Facebook oder Youtube. Ich freue mich immer über
[22:21] Feedback und weitere Fragen von dir, alles wird gut, aber nicht
[22:27] von alleine.

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