# Mike Osterholm & Eric Topol - Discuss “The Big One” book

An episode of [Ground Truths](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1728526108), 3 Sep 2025, 36 min.

Audio: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/172589483/cc0ed2bc96bd7fe782c7ed7ddc56e194.mp3

Get full access to Ground Truths at erictopol.substack.com/subscribe

## Transcript

[0:00] SPEAKER_01: Okay, well, I am really excited today.
[0:02] SPEAKER_01: I get to talk to my favorite epidemiologist.
[0:06] SPEAKER_01: And he has just launched a big book called The Big One.
[0:11] And it is an incredible book that I had a chance to review
[0:15] prior to its launch.
[0:16] SPEAKER_01: And I just want to read what I said about it.
[0:19] And I'm a little guy compared to the other people that have
[0:23] reviewed the book.
[0:24] SPEAKER_01: I wrote, if it was one person to turn...
[0:27] SPEAKER_01: for future pandemic readiness,
[0:29] SPEAKER_01: it would be Michael Oster,
[0:31] SPEAKER_01: one of the world's leading epidemiologists in the big one,
[0:35] SPEAKER_01: a landmark book.
[0:37] SPEAKER_01: He,
[0:37] SPEAKER_01: along with Mark Oshaker,
[0:39] SPEAKER_01: provide a remarkably clear-eyed,
[0:42] SPEAKER_01: science-driven,
[0:44] SPEAKER_01: and comprehensive preventive approach.
[0:46] SPEAKER_01: So, Michael, welcome.
[0:48] SPEAKER_00: Thank you very much, Eric.
[0:49] SPEAKER_00: It's a real honor to be with you.
[0:51] SPEAKER_01: Well,
[0:52] SPEAKER_01: no,
[0:52] it's much more for me because this book is really the timing of
[0:57] it and the balance
[0:59] in it and the insight and wisdom from a person who's been doing
[1:02] it for four decades
[1:04] SPEAKER_01: and is the highest,
[1:05] SPEAKER_01: as far as I know,
[1:06] SPEAKER_01: the highest regarded person.
[1:08] SPEAKER_01: American epidemiologists.
[1:10] SPEAKER_01: That's all I can say.
[1:12] SPEAKER_00: If I could add one addendum to this, okay?
[1:14] SPEAKER_00: Because it's in the book, so I surely don't want to disguise it.
[1:17] SPEAKER_00: But what the audience may not realize is that you,
[1:21] SPEAKER_00: along with several other colleagues and I,
[1:23] SPEAKER_00: got together every Friday throughout the pandemic,
[1:26] SPEAKER_00: what we call the party planning group,
[1:28] SPEAKER_00: to cover it in our
[1:29] SPEAKER_00: Our calendars.
[1:30] SPEAKER_00: And what I learned from you during the pandemic,
[1:33] SPEAKER_00: I felt like I could almost have gotten another PhD or,
[1:36] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[1:36] SPEAKER_00: at least another master's.
[1:38] SPEAKER_00: And I just want to personally thank you.
[1:40] SPEAKER_00: Your clarity of voice,
[1:41] SPEAKER_00: your brilliant,
[1:42] SPEAKER_00: brilliant assessment of what,
[1:45] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[1:45] SPEAKER_00: the various clinical and epidemiologic issues mean.
[1:50] SPEAKER_00: has been just a gift.
[1:51] SPEAKER_00: And so,
[1:51] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[1:52] SPEAKER_00: when you started this Substack,
[1:54] SPEAKER_00: obviously,
[1:54] SPEAKER_00: as you know,
[1:55] SPEAKER_00: I couldn't wait to subscribe.
[1:57] And I hope everyone who's listening today realizes just what a
[2:01] valuable tool you
[2:02] SPEAKER_00: are to those of us.
[2:03] SPEAKER_00: So it's an honor, a real honor for me to be here with you.
[2:07] SPEAKER_01: You're really kind, Michael.
[2:09] SPEAKER_01: And
[2:09] SPEAKER_01: You've been such a great support, and I've learned so much from you.
[2:12] SPEAKER_01: And one of the things I learned from you,
[2:14] SPEAKER_01: and it's throughout the book,
[2:15] SPEAKER_01: is the importance of humility.
[2:17] SPEAKER_01: Not only are you my favorite person for coming up with metaphors,
[2:23] SPEAKER_01: you come up with country bumpkin metaphors,
[2:26] SPEAKER_01: but you're really good at...
[2:29] SPEAKER_01: having humility, saying, we don't know.
[2:31] SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
[2:32] SPEAKER_01: We don't know.
[2:33] So let's get into something we don't know about,
[2:35] which is the last chapter of the book.
[2:38] SPEAKER_01: We're going in reverse here.
[2:39] SPEAKER_01: But the last chapter of the book is the big one.
[2:43] SPEAKER_01: It's SARS-3.
[2:45] SPEAKER_01: And it's about a virus that gets wings and
[2:49] SPEAKER_01: circles around the world in hours,
[2:53] I guess starting in Somalia and then getting into your neck of
[2:56] the woods in
[2:57] SPEAKER_01: Minneapolis.
[2:58] SPEAKER_01: And it's obviously something that you imagined,
[3:03] SPEAKER_01: but it's maybe not so far off from what could happen.
[3:05] SPEAKER_01: So take us through the SARS-3 scenario that you envisioned.
[3:13] SPEAKER_00: Well,
[3:14] SPEAKER_00: first of all,
[3:14] what we attempted to do with this book is provide basically a
[3:18] fictional outbreak
[3:21] that begins in the first chapter with the very first
[3:23] transmission in Somalia.
[3:26] SPEAKER_00: And it points out just how quickly this virus would spread it.
[3:30] SPEAKER_00: And it's very realistic.
[3:32] SPEAKER_00: Check every figure with everyone in Somalia, Kenya, airports.
[3:38] And what we try to do then is based on that,
[3:41] each chapter begins with that fictional scenario.
[3:43] And then we go into the nonfiction actual assessment of what
[3:47] should we or could we have learned?
[3:49] SPEAKER_00: And as you know, we've learned a heck of a lot during this pandemic.
[3:53] One of the things that was very challenging is that we never
[3:56] spent the time
[3:57] SPEAKER_00: afterwards,
[3:58] SPEAKER_00: either commitment-wise or just from a time standpoint,
[4:01] SPEAKER_00: to assess what the heck happened.
[4:03] SPEAKER_00: What did we go through?
[4:06] SPEAKER_00: We needed a 9-11-like commission without finger pointing,
[4:10] SPEAKER_00: not partisan,
[4:11] SPEAKER_00: just to say what are the lessons we could have and should have learned.
[4:15] SPEAKER_00: And so, you know, we came up with this virus.
[4:18] SPEAKER_00: You know,
[4:18] SPEAKER_00: at the time that we saw COVID take off,
[4:22] there were a lot of people skeptical that a coronavirus was
[4:25] going to do this.
[4:26] SPEAKER_00: As we know,
[4:27] SPEAKER_00: SARS and MERS were both two prototype coronaviruses that,
[4:31] SPEAKER_00: in fact,
[4:32] SPEAKER_00: were of great concern.
[4:33] But fortunately,
[4:34] as much as they could kill 15 to 35 percent of the people who
[4:37] got infected,
[4:38] SPEAKER_00: They weren't that infectious.
[4:40] SPEAKER_00: There were rare instances where we did have some super spreaders,
[4:43] SPEAKER_00: but basically,
[4:44] SPEAKER_00: we were able to stop that transmission.
[4:47] SPEAKER_00: Well,
[4:47] SPEAKER_00: the whole point came up,
[4:49] SPEAKER_00: and of course,
[4:49] I had the good fortune to spend some time with the real
[4:52] coronavirus experts,
[4:54] where what would happen if we had a coronavirus that had the
[4:58] ability to basically
[5:00] SPEAKER_00: spread like we saw with COVID,
[5:02] SPEAKER_00: meaning with the ACE receptor,
[5:03] SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
[5:04] SPEAKER_00: perfect package for spread.
[5:07] SPEAKER_00: Also one that had the perfect package on board to cause severe illness,
[5:11] SPEAKER_00: like we saw with MERS and SARS.
[5:14] SPEAKER_00: And sure enough, we've now actually found viruses like that in the wild.
[5:18] And so the challenge really is right now is the fact that this
[5:22] isn't such a
[5:23] SPEAKER_00: sensational potential scenario.
[5:26] SPEAKER_00: It's one that very realistically could happen.
[5:29] SPEAKER_00: But regardless of what happens with the next SARS,
[5:33] SPEAKER_00: like pandemic or influenza,
[5:36] SPEAKER_00: it's going to happen.
[5:37] SPEAKER_00: You know, as we've talked about, the pandemic clock is ticking.
[5:40] SPEAKER_00: We just don't know what time it is.
[5:42] And there's no guarantee because we just came through a
[5:44] pandemic that the next one
[5:45] SPEAKER_00: couldn't start tomorrow.
[5:47] SPEAKER_00: But assuming that,
[5:48] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[5:49] SPEAKER_00: we may have a little bit of time,
[5:50] the question is what can we do now to learn from what we went
[5:54] through with COVID to
[5:55] SPEAKER_00: be much better prepared for the future?
[5:57] What are the technology issues that we can use to our advantage
[6:00] now we didn't have
[6:01] SPEAKER_00: five years ago?
[6:02] And I think this has been,
[6:03] to me,
[6:05] the whole driving force behind this book.
[6:08] I basically often say this was really a love letter to my kids
[6:11] and grandkids.
[6:13] What can I do to help make the world a better place so that
[6:16] what they don't have to
[6:17] SPEAKER_00: go through is what this book was written all about?
[6:21] SPEAKER_01: Well, you've been doing that for quite a while.
[6:23] SPEAKER_01: This is a culmination of that work.
[6:25] SPEAKER_01: But one of the many, many quotes that are in the book that really hit me
[6:31] SPEAKER_01: is the one from Joshua Lederberg.
[6:34] The single biggest threat on man's continued dominance on the
[6:38] planet is the virus,
[6:40] the virus.
[6:41] And you,
[6:42] of course,
[6:43] know this perhaps better than anyone about what a virus is
[6:46] capable of doing.
[6:47] SPEAKER_01: And as you outlined, you know, what if you had the combination of a MERS,
[6:53] SPEAKER_01: And Omicron that could spread like wildfire,
[6:57] SPEAKER_01: but also wasn't just this,
[6:59] SPEAKER_01: at times for younger,
[7:01] SPEAKER_01: healthier people,
[7:02] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[7:04] SPEAKER_01: relatively innocuous.
[7:05] SPEAKER_01: Of course, it could still cause long COVID in those people.
[7:08] SPEAKER_01: But now we have potential it could be something much worse.
[7:11] SPEAKER_01: And some people would say it's just a matter of time.
[7:13] SPEAKER_01: But I want to go now to the,
[7:15] SPEAKER_01: well,
[7:15] SPEAKER_01: that term that you coined so many microbial 911,
[7:19] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[7:19] SPEAKER_01: that's
[7:21] SPEAKER_01: That's right there.
[7:23] When you get to SARS-2,
[7:25] our current pandemic,
[7:29] endemic,
[7:29] whatever you want to call it,
[7:31] SPEAKER_01: There's many things.
[7:32] SPEAKER_01: You said there were eight major mistakes, right?
[7:35] And right at the top of the list was the whole denial of
[7:40] airborne transmission with
[7:42] SPEAKER_01: this thing about fixation.
[7:44] SPEAKER_01: Oh, it's the liquid droplets.
[7:45] SPEAKER_01: It doesn't get airborne, right?
[7:47] SPEAKER_01: And I wonder if you could elaborate on that.
[7:49] And one of the striking statistics that I didn't even know
[7:54] before is that if two
[7:55] SPEAKER_01: people are sitting in a room that had tightly fit N95 masks,
[8:01] SPEAKER_01: they wouldn't transmit for more than a day, breathing the same air.
[8:06] SPEAKER_01: Can you tell us more about the airborne story and the mass?
[8:11] SPEAKER_00: Well,
[8:11] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[8:11] SPEAKER_00: first of all,
[8:12] SPEAKER_00: I have been very,
[8:13] very fortunate to be tutored by several people who are really
[8:16] experts in this area,
[8:17] SPEAKER_00: at least Lisa Brousseau from CIDRAP,
[8:20] SPEAKER_00: who has done a lot of the pioneering work in this area.
[8:23] But I also brought to the table my work as an infectious
[8:27] disease epidemiologist and
[8:28] SPEAKER_00: state epidemiologist in Minnesota working up outbreaks where,
[8:31] SPEAKER_00: in fact,
[8:32] SPEAKER_00: airborne transmission was very important.
[8:35] SPEAKER_00: Let me give you a classic example of that.
[8:37] A number of years ago,
[8:38] we had the Special Olympics that were held in Minnesota.
[8:41] SPEAKER_00: And the opening night session was held in the Hubert Humphrey Metrodome.
[8:46] SPEAKER_00: And this is the large, large baseball diamond there.
[8:52] And what happened was all the individual team members marched
[8:56] in a door that was
[8:57] SPEAKER_00: out in right field,
[8:58] SPEAKER_00: came down to home plate,
[9:00] SPEAKER_00: kind of went around a center field,
[9:01] SPEAKER_00: left field,
[9:02] SPEAKER_00: and they collected there.
[9:04] SPEAKER_00: Well, the team from Argentina, the A's, were right at home plate.
[9:09] And it turned out that that night we had a young boy from
[9:12] Argentina that was just
[9:13] SPEAKER_00: breaking with measles.
[9:14] SPEAKER_00: His case was confirmed two days later.
[9:17] And we had an outbreak that occurred among the team members and
[9:21] the coaches.
[9:22] But that opening night session where there were over 60,000
[9:25] people in the actual
[9:27] SPEAKER_00: venue,
[9:28] and we had an outbreak among individuals who went to that
[9:31] opening night session.
[9:33] SPEAKER_00: They did not know each other.
[9:34] SPEAKER_00: They had no idea.
[9:35] SPEAKER_00: But when we placed them by seats,
[9:37] they were all seated in the same small section up in the far
[9:41] right field bleacher
[9:43] SPEAKER_00: area,
[9:43] SPEAKER_00: 420 feet away,
[9:44] SPEAKER_00: where Mark McGuire couldn't get a home run on steroids.
[9:47] SPEAKER_00: And they all came down with it.
[9:50] SPEAKER_00: Well,
[9:50] SPEAKER_00: when we actually looked at this carefully,
[9:53] SPEAKER_00: it turned out that the air patterns coming off of home plate,
[9:55] SPEAKER_00: from behind home plate,
[9:57] SPEAKER_00: actually deposited up in that upper air corner up there,
[10:01] SPEAKER_00: where in fact,
[10:03] SPEAKER_00: because the air was moving with this individual,
[10:05] that virus infected those people up there that far away and
[10:09] skipped over everybody
[10:10] SPEAKER_00: in between.
[10:12] SPEAKER_00: Now take that on a more apparent basis of saying every day,
[10:16] if I were walking down the street today and I suddenly smelled
[10:19] cigarette smoke,
[10:20] SPEAKER_00: I look up and I see the person smoking.
[10:22] SPEAKER_00: It's 35 to 40 feet ahead of me, but I'm downwind.
[10:25] SPEAKER_00: Smoke is an aerosol.
[10:27] And so what we were trying to get across the point is if you
[10:30] look at influenza,
[10:32] SPEAKER_00: obviously that's an airborne related transmitted disease.
[10:35] SPEAKER_00: There's nothing real about this six feet space, whatever.
[10:38] And there really has been a misconception as to what it means
[10:42] to actually put virus
[10:44] SPEAKER_00: out in terms of droplets versus aerosol.
[10:47] SPEAKER_00: Everywhere that there's a droplet where it's big enough.
[10:49] SPEAKER_00: So when you're sitting in the second row at the theater and the actor is,
[10:53] SPEAKER_00: you can spew in a way,
[10:54] SPEAKER_00: you can see it in the lights.
[10:55] SPEAKER_00: That does fall largely usually within six feet.
[10:58] SPEAKER_00: But there's aerosols in those six feet, these tiny things that float.
[11:03] SPEAKER_00: And then they go from there.
[11:05] SPEAKER_00: You know,
[11:05] Minneapolis has just spent the entire summer working with our
[11:09] aerosol prevention
[11:10] means because we've had all these wildfires from Canada where
[11:13] the smoke has gone
[11:14] SPEAKER_00: over a thousand miles.
[11:15] SPEAKER_00: Smoke is an aerosol.
[11:17] SPEAKER_00: It floats in the air.
[11:18] SPEAKER_00: And so one of the things that caused us to react as we did,
[11:22] when I got the first call about what was happening in Wuhan on
[11:26] December 30th,
[11:27] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[11:28] SPEAKER_00: my first reaction was,
[11:29] SPEAKER_00: oh my God,
[11:29] SPEAKER_00: no,
[11:30] SPEAKER_00: this is another flu.
[11:31] SPEAKER_00: This could be the bad one, okay?
[11:33] SPEAKER_00: And then we learned over the next few days, of course, it wasn't.
[11:36] SPEAKER_00: It was a coronavirus.
[11:37] SPEAKER_00: I thought, oh, we're covered.
[11:39] SPEAKER_00: It's not going to be good, but we can put this one out.
[11:42] SPEAKER_00: But then what we did is we had contacts with people in Wuhan.
[11:46] We had contacts with people in Hong Kong that were coming back
[11:49] and forth with Wuhan.
[11:50] SPEAKER_00: And Eric,
[11:51] it was very clear that there were people transmitting the virus
[11:55] who were themselves
[11:56] SPEAKER_00: not yet ill.
[11:58] SPEAKER_00: And that if you looked at how the transmission was occurring,
[12:00] SPEAKER_00: it was classic airborne transmission.
[12:03] SPEAKER_00: Which shouldn't be surprising because,
[12:05] SPEAKER_00: in fact,
[12:05] SPEAKER_00: the Canadian researchers have concluded that with SARS,
[12:09] SPEAKER_00: there was airborne transmission.
[12:11] It was just limited in terms of the number of people that
[12:13] actually did that.
[12:15] SPEAKER_00: So this wasn't a surprise to us.
[12:17] SPEAKER_00: And so actually on January 20th,
[12:19] SPEAKER_00: I put out a statement on our website,
[12:21] SPEAKER_00: still there,
[12:22] SPEAKER_00: that said,
[12:23] SPEAKER_00: wake up world,
[12:23] SPEAKER_00: this is going to be the next pandemic.
[12:25] And it's because,
[12:26] as you labeled it earlier,
[12:28] I call them viruses with wings.
[12:30] SPEAKER_00: These are the respiratory transmitted viruses that are airborne,
[12:34] SPEAKER_00: aerosol transmitted,
[12:36] and all the hygiene theater around plexiglass and all these
[12:40] things make no
[12:41] SPEAKER_00: difference.
[12:41] SPEAKER_00: All the things about wearing something in front of your face,
[12:44] SPEAKER_00: a bandana,
[12:45] SPEAKER_00: whatever,
[12:45] SPEAKER_00: doesn't make a difference.
[12:47] SPEAKER_00: But as you just pointed out,
[12:48] SPEAKER_00: on the other hand,
[12:49] SPEAKER_00: N95s,
[12:50] SPEAKER_00: when they're face fitted,
[12:52] provide incredible protection for two people sitting in the
[12:55] same room for 24 hours.
[12:57] SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, that's striking.
[12:58] SPEAKER_01: And I think that
[13:00] SPEAKER_01: Something that a lot of people,
[13:01] SPEAKER_01: that statistic,
[13:03] SPEAKER_01: and of course,
[13:03] SPEAKER_01: the two-way mask,
[13:05] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[13:05] SPEAKER_01: so critical.
[13:06] SPEAKER_01: Now,
[13:07] SPEAKER_01: one of the things that you came out in the book,
[13:11] SPEAKER_01: which some will say,
[13:12] SPEAKER_01: hmm,
[13:13] SPEAKER_01: is about,
[13:13] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[13:14] SPEAKER_01: mandates.
[13:14] As you know better than anyone,
[13:17] we saw all this polarity because of the mandates.
[13:21] SPEAKER_01: It bristled a lot of people.
[13:22] And one of the mandates,
[13:23] of course,
[13:24] was the lockdowns and particularly schools.
[13:28] SPEAKER_01: So I want to get your view about the school mandates.
[13:31] SPEAKER_01: This is such a hot, hot topic still today.
[13:34] SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
[13:36] SPEAKER_00: Well,
[13:36] let me start out by first of all saying I was not a real
[13:38] popular guy in public
[13:39] SPEAKER_00: health at the time.
[13:40] SPEAKER_00: I wrote an op-ed piece that was in the Washington Post with my co-author,
[13:46] SPEAKER_00: Mark Olshaker,
[13:47] SPEAKER_00: in which I said,
[13:48] SPEAKER_00: do not do lockdowns.
[13:49] SPEAKER_00: This was in the middle of March in 2020.
[13:53] And I said,
[13:53] the reason for that is you're conceptually not viewing what is
[13:56] about to happen.
[13:58] SPEAKER_00: namely the fact that this was not going to be like a bad,
[14:00] SPEAKER_00: bad hurricane,
[14:01] SPEAKER_00: which would blow through in 12 to 18 hours,
[14:04] SPEAKER_00: and then you could go into recovery.
[14:06] This was going to be a sustained situation that could last for
[14:09] several years.
[14:11] SPEAKER_00: If you're going to lock down right now, how do you ring a bell?
[14:14] What's going to give you the opportunity then to release that
[14:17] lockdown with some alternative?
[14:20] SPEAKER_00: Because it's not.
[14:20] SPEAKER_00: And in fact,
[14:21] SPEAKER_00: we saw that in China when in 2021,
[14:24] SPEAKER_00: 2022,
[14:24] SPEAKER_00: for populations that had been really heavily locked down.
[14:27] I mean,
[14:27] they literally had food delivered to their homes when that
[14:30] lockdown was ended.
[14:32] and they were not vaccinated,
[14:33] they lost millions of people in the short order because of
[14:37] that.
[14:38] SPEAKER_00: So what we had proposed all along was,
[14:40] SPEAKER_00: what is the one thing that's going to save us,
[14:42] SPEAKER_00: if anything?
[14:43] SPEAKER_00: It's good medical care.
[14:45] SPEAKER_00: It's having adequate access to good medical care.
[14:48] SPEAKER_00: Well, you can't do that if you're at 140% Celsius.
[14:50] SPEAKER_00: You just can't do that.
[14:53] And so what we were talking about is whether you die in the
[14:56] first six months or the
[14:57] SPEAKER_00: second six months or the third six months or the fourth six months,
[15:00] SPEAKER_00: you're still pretty dead at the end of the pandemic.
[15:03] SPEAKER_00: And the point was,
[15:04] SPEAKER_00: what can we do to maximize hospital care,
[15:09] SPEAKER_00: minimize the risk of that being lost?
[15:12] And so one of the things we'd proposed is the fact that every
[15:15] hospital should,
[15:16] in fact,
[15:17] SPEAKER_00: label or provide every day?
[15:19] SPEAKER_00: What's our sense of that?
[15:21] SPEAKER_00: And when in a community and everybody can see it,
[15:24] SPEAKER_00: so there was no,
[15:24] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[15:25] SPEAKER_00: and then if you got to 95 or 100%,
[15:27] SPEAKER_00: you would ask people to take a snow day or days where you'd say,
[15:31] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[15:32] SPEAKER_00: for the next seven to 10 days,
[15:34] SPEAKER_00: please,
[15:34] SPEAKER_00: if you can back off public events,
[15:36] SPEAKER_00: if you can do anything to minimize contact,
[15:40] SPEAKER_00: That will help us.
[15:40] SPEAKER_00: And then once we get the census back down,
[15:43] SPEAKER_00: and of course,
[15:43] SPEAKER_00: the variants had a lot to do with that,
[15:45] SPEAKER_00: whether they came up and down too,
[15:47] SPEAKER_00: but that would give us a better chance of having that.
[15:49] SPEAKER_00: And that's something that sustains through the entire pandemic.
[15:52] It was never about preventing infections because you weren't
[15:54] going to prevent them.
[15:55] SPEAKER_00: People were going to get infected over three years.
[15:57] SPEAKER_00: It's just that simple.
[15:59] The question was,
[15:59] how could you maximize the opportunity to then have good
[16:02] medical care?
[16:04] SPEAKER_00: And that was just lost.
[16:05] SPEAKER_00: And I think next time we get into the pandemic situation,
[16:08] SPEAKER_00: we have to understand we could be in this for several years.
[16:12] SPEAKER_00: Early on in the pandemic,
[16:13] SPEAKER_00: Eric,
[16:14] SPEAKER_00: as you know,
[16:14] I took a lot of criticism from my colleagues for being
[16:17] sensationally crazy.
[16:20] SPEAKER_00: And I was on Joe Rogan on March 10th of 2020.
[16:24] SPEAKER_00: And I said at that time,
[16:25] I really honestly believe we could see 800,000 deaths in the
[16:27] next 18 months.
[16:30] SPEAKER_00: And I'm telling you,
[16:30] SPEAKER_00: you should have seen my inbox for,
[16:32] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[16:32] SPEAKER_00: why are you doing this,
[16:33] SPEAKER_00: scaring people?
[16:34] And it turned out that 18 months later,
[16:36] we were just short of 800,000 deaths.
[16:39] SPEAKER_00: And that's what people didn't envision is this long term,
[16:43] SPEAKER_00: not a hurricane,
[16:43] SPEAKER_00: but we're talking about a really,
[16:46] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[16:46] SPEAKER_00: an infectious disease blizzard that lasted three years.
[16:50] SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, I think this is the end question.
[16:55] SPEAKER_01: You know, you called it.
[16:57] SPEAKER_01: I think a lot of people didn't appreciate and,
[17:00] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[17:00] SPEAKER_01: labeled you as a scaremonger,
[17:02] SPEAKER_01: which couldn't have been the truth.
[17:04] SPEAKER_01: But here you are,
[17:05] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[17:05] SPEAKER_01: you're now trying to take all that wisdom,
[17:08] SPEAKER_01: not just from SARS-CoV-2,
[17:11] SPEAKER_01: but,
[17:11] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[17:11] SPEAKER_01: all the other things and influenza and everything else.
[17:16] SPEAKER_01: And you're trying to project, you know, what do we have to do?
[17:19] SPEAKER_01: And,
[17:20] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[17:20] SPEAKER_01: this transcends many different areas about universal vaccines,
[17:24] SPEAKER_01: which many academic labs have been coming up with,
[17:27] SPEAKER_01: not just for coronavirus,
[17:29] but also for influenza and other leading potential viruses that
[17:34] could cause a
[17:35] SPEAKER_01: pandemic,
[17:35] SPEAKER_01: surveillance systems,
[17:38] SPEAKER_01: the critical aspect of public trust that you emphasize that we've got to
[17:42] SPEAKER_01: reestablish,
[17:43] SPEAKER_01: getting the right funding.
[17:45] SPEAKER_01: Now, as I look down the list of all the things you brought up,
[17:48] SPEAKER_01: I'm saying we're not doing any of this stuff.
[17:51] SPEAKER_01: Is that the right call on that?
[17:54] SPEAKER_00: Unfortunately, you're right.
[17:55] And let me just add one little piece to my last answer because
[17:58] you asked me and I
[17:59] SPEAKER_00: didn't answer it.
[17:59] SPEAKER_00: It was about kids.
[18:01] SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
[18:01] SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah.
[18:02] And what people didn't realize is the variance made all the
[18:05] difference between
[18:06] SPEAKER_00: night and day with kids.
[18:09] In the first three years of the pandemic,
[18:12] we had roughly 1,559 kids die in this country.
[18:17] SPEAKER_00: If you look at the first year, it was only 199.
[18:19] SPEAKER_00: And I'd say only,
[18:21] SPEAKER_00: it's still a tragedy,
[18:22] SPEAKER_00: but 87% of the deaths in kids occurred in year two and year three.
[18:27] SPEAKER_00: And what happened was as alpha gave way to beta,
[18:31] SPEAKER_00: beta gave way to delta and the variants,
[18:33] SPEAKER_00: and then we got to Omicron,
[18:35] SPEAKER_00: we saw a very different impact on kids.
[18:37] But people had published these papers in the first year saying
[18:41] it's not a big risk for kids.
[18:42] SPEAKER_00: The delta and I don't get seriously ill.
[18:45] And we missed totally what was changing with the epidemiology
[18:48] and pediatric COVID
[18:51] SPEAKER_00: per the different variants.
[18:53] SPEAKER_00: And so the fact that 87% of the deaths occurred in year two and three,
[18:58] SPEAKER_00: We totally missed that.
[18:59] We were having all the arguments about school being open or
[19:02] closed or what we did
[19:03] SPEAKER_00: based on what was from year one data.
[19:05] And I think this was one of the lessons that taught us is you
[19:08] got to constantly be
[19:09] SPEAKER_00: evaluating the data,
[19:11] SPEAKER_00: whether it be for transmission purposes,
[19:13] SPEAKER_00: for disease severity,
[19:14] SPEAKER_00: et cetera.
[19:15] And I think that's one of the lessons we should learn with
[19:17] these variants.
[19:18] SPEAKER_00: These variants were really important.
[19:20] SPEAKER_00: And that was a newer picture issue.
[19:23] SPEAKER_00: So, but I think that's the case.
[19:24] SPEAKER_00: But in terms of your last point, unfortunately,
[19:28] The only thing that's ever really going to take a pandemic off
[19:30] the table is having
[19:32] SPEAKER_00: a global reach with vaccine,
[19:35] SPEAKER_00: having access to everyone that's an effective vaccine.
[19:38] SPEAKER_00: And as you know,
[19:39] SPEAKER_00: and I wrote in the book,
[19:40] I talked a lot about influenza because this is an area that
[19:42] I've been very involved
[19:43] SPEAKER_00: with.
[19:44] SPEAKER_00: Right now,
[19:45] SPEAKER_00: globally,
[19:46] SPEAKER_00: we have the ability to make using chicken,
[19:48] SPEAKER_00: egg,
[19:48] SPEAKER_00: and cell culture methods,
[19:50] SPEAKER_00: the tool we relied on for decades,
[19:53] we can make enough vaccine in one year if everything goes right
[19:58] to cover about a
[19:59] SPEAKER_00: quarter of the world.
[20:01] SPEAKER_00: it would take us three or more years to get enough vaccine for the world,
[20:05] SPEAKER_00: which by that time,
[20:06] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[20:06] SPEAKER_00: the influenza pandemic could be over.
[20:08] SPEAKER_00: Now,
[20:09] SPEAKER_00: where I had great hope,
[20:10] SPEAKER_00: at least in the short term,
[20:11] SPEAKER_00: I'd like to get that universal vaccine is mRNA technology.
[20:15] SPEAKER_00: Because there,
[20:17] SPEAKER_00: it wouldn't necessarily be any better vaccine for flu,
[20:19] meaning in terms of we know we have challenges with waning
[20:23] immunity with influenza
[20:24] SPEAKER_00: vaccines.
[20:25] SPEAKER_00: You know,
[20:25] SPEAKER_00: it doesn't necessarily stop transmission,
[20:27] SPEAKER_00: but it does a lot to prevent severe illness,
[20:30] SPEAKER_00: hospitalizations,
[20:30] SPEAKER_00: and deaths.
[20:31] SPEAKER_00: And that's what the COVID vaccine has done with mRNA technology.
[20:35] SPEAKER_00: But with mRNA technology for influenza,
[20:39] it's very likely we can make enough vaccine to cover the world
[20:41] within that first
[20:42] SPEAKER_00: year.
[20:43] SPEAKER_00: That is the difference between millions and millions of deaths.
[20:47] SPEAKER_00: And so when we recently saw,
[20:49] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[20:49] SPEAKER_00: this administration withdraw us any support for mRNA and basically,
[20:53] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[20:54] SPEAKER_00: almost cast it aside as evil,
[20:56] that's been really unfortunate because that was our best get
[20:59] out of jail card right
[21:00] SPEAKER_00: now.
[21:01] SPEAKER_00: And so in that sense, that's an example.
[21:04] SPEAKER_00: But otherwise,
[21:05] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[21:06] all the other things we have going for us at best can limit a
[21:09] bit of what happens
[21:10] SPEAKER_00: with the pandemic.
[21:11] SPEAKER_00: But we really need to have these vaccines.
[21:14] SPEAKER_01: You know, I couldn't agree with you more there.
[21:17] SPEAKER_01: You really highlight this in the book.
[21:20] SPEAKER_01: And the point here is that,
[21:21] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[21:22] we haven't done anything to improve the mRNA nanoparticle
[21:26] package since day one.
[21:27] SPEAKER_01: It was, of course, a nurse.
[21:29] that we had it in 10 months from the time of sequence to the
[21:32] first vaccine being
[21:33] SPEAKER_01: able to be given to people.
[21:35] SPEAKER_01: But we know,
[21:36] SPEAKER_01: like,
[21:36] SPEAKER_01: for example,
[21:37] SPEAKER_01: in Japan,
[21:37] SPEAKER_01: there's self-amplifying mRNA at tiny doses,
[21:41] SPEAKER_01: much less potential for side effects,
[21:43] SPEAKER_01: and the nanoparticles can be tweaked.
[21:45] SPEAKER_01: And we're still now,
[21:47] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[21:48] five years later or four years plus later from the vaccines
[21:51] being available.
[21:52] SPEAKER_01: And, you know, the companies are doing nothing.
[21:55] SPEAKER_01: And of course, as you point out, Mike,
[21:58] SPEAKER_01: the abandonment of HHS,
[22:01] SPEAKER_01: of mRNA,
[22:02] SPEAKER_01: perhaps not just even for infectious diseases,
[22:04] SPEAKER_01: but for cancer,
[22:05] SPEAKER_01: autoimmune diseases,
[22:06] SPEAKER_01: gene editing,
[22:07] SPEAKER_01: and all sorts of other things.
[22:09] SPEAKER_01: This is really a tragedy,
[22:10] SPEAKER_01: I think,
[22:11] SPEAKER_01: because as you just pointed out,
[22:13] SPEAKER_01: a lot of people don't realize it,
[22:15] SPEAKER_01: you can make an enormous amount
[22:18] SPEAKER_01: of mRNA vaccines quickly.
[22:21] SPEAKER_01: And of course,
[22:21] SPEAKER_01: we could stockpile,
[22:23] SPEAKER_01: ideally,
[22:24] SPEAKER_01: universal flu,
[22:25] SPEAKER_01: universal coronavirus,
[22:27] SPEAKER_01: and pick a couple more leading culprits and have,
[22:32] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[22:32] SPEAKER_01: like you said,
[22:33] SPEAKER_01: billions of doses ready.
[22:35] SPEAKER_01: And you really spotlighted this in the book.
[22:38] SPEAKER_01: The investment in stockpiling universal vaccines,
[22:42] SPEAKER_01: mRNA vaccines,
[22:44] SPEAKER_01: that would offset the tragedy and the loss of lives,
[22:47] SPEAKER_01: the economic impact,
[22:48] SPEAKER_01: on and on and on,
[22:49] SPEAKER_01: right?
[22:50] SPEAKER_00: If we had that, Eric, we wouldn't have the big one.
[22:53] SPEAKER_00: It's that simple.
[22:54] SPEAKER_00: That's the difference.
[22:56] SPEAKER_00: And so that's what we need to get across to people.
[22:59] When you think about defense spending,
[23:01] people say,
[23:01] well,
[23:01] we spent too much money on it.
[23:02] SPEAKER_00: We don't spend enough on it.
[23:03] SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
[23:04] SPEAKER_00: I don't understand that.
[23:05] SPEAKER_00: But I do understand,
[23:06] SPEAKER_00: if you're going to build a new aircraft carrier,
[23:08] SPEAKER_00: they budget that for 15 years of construction.
[23:11] SPEAKER_00: So it starts today,
[23:13] and you don't have to go in every year to get refunded or
[23:16] hoping that you're going
[23:17] SPEAKER_00: to continue to get funding.
[23:18] SPEAKER_00: It's planned that way.
[23:19] SPEAKER_00: You know, we should be doing this with our vaccines.
[23:22] SPEAKER_00: And,
[23:22] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[23:22] the private sector is not going to pick this up because already
[23:25] look what's
[23:26] SPEAKER_00: happening.
[23:27] SPEAKER_00: Once the mRNA fell out of favor with this administration,
[23:30] everybody investment wise is getting out of it because they're
[23:33] fairly going to lose
[23:34] SPEAKER_00: their shirts.
[23:35] You know,
[23:35] who pays for manufacturing capacity that you don't keep warm
[23:39] basically day to day?
[23:41] SPEAKER_00: You got to keep it warm.
[23:42] SPEAKER_00: So when something happens, you can start up right away.
[23:45] SPEAKER_00: Again, that's got to be government.
[23:47] SPEAKER_00: And so to me, this is a challenge.
[23:49] SPEAKER_00: Our center,
[23:50] SPEAKER_00: which some people know,
[23:51] SPEAKER_00: has been the depository,
[23:53] SPEAKER_00: you might say,
[23:53] SPEAKER_00: for the vaccine roadmaps for both influenza coronavirus.
[23:57] SPEAKER_00: We've been funded to keep track of that.
[23:58] We can tell you at any moment what's being funded,
[24:01] where it's being funded by,
[24:02] etc.,
[24:03] SPEAKER_00: And when you look at that,
[24:04] it's just a small amount of money compared to the cost of what
[24:08] we just went
[24:08] SPEAKER_00: through.
[24:09] SPEAKER_00: And imagine if you could take that off the table.
[24:12] SPEAKER_00: This is where I think the good news comes in.
[24:14] SPEAKER_00: You can't prevent a pandemic.
[24:16] SPEAKER_00: Some people say you can.
[24:17] SPEAKER_00: You can't.
[24:18] SPEAKER_00: Once a virus with wings takes off, it's gone.
[24:20] SPEAKER_00: But can you do a lot to limit it?
[24:23] SPEAKER_00: Actually, and that's the part that's possible.
[24:25] SPEAKER_00: So this is where it's not all lost, but we need to have leadership.
[24:29] SPEAKER_00: at government levels around the world,
[24:31] SPEAKER_00: but particularly the United States,
[24:33] SPEAKER_00: to support this kind of vaccine research.
[24:35] SPEAKER_00: And just as you said very nicely,
[24:37] there is a lot of potentially exciting new opportunities with
[24:40] these vaccines.
[24:41] SPEAKER_00: We just have to invest in them.
[24:43] SPEAKER_00: What a small, small insurance policy.
[24:45] SPEAKER_01: I mean,
[24:45] it's just extraordinary to me that we could be building at mass
[24:50] quantities
[24:51] universal vaccines with a tiny fraction of the mRNA that's used
[24:56] today with better
[24:57] SPEAKER_01: nanoparticles,
[24:58] SPEAKER_01: better immune response,
[24:59] SPEAKER_01: and we're doing nothing.
[25:01] SPEAKER_01: And it's getting condemned, like you said.
[25:03] SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
[25:05] SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
[25:06] SPEAKER_00: and you know,
[25:06] you've commented on this and very nicely on other alternative
[25:11] vaccine approaches,
[25:12] SPEAKER_00: Lyme attenuated vaccines,
[25:13] SPEAKER_00: et cetera.
[25:14] SPEAKER_00: We should be doing everything we can.
[25:17] SPEAKER_00: And it's also for seasonal viruses.
[25:19] SPEAKER_00: You know,
[25:20] SPEAKER_00: I mean,
[25:20] SPEAKER_00: the terms of the influenza,
[25:21] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[25:22] SPEAKER_00: influenza killed 256 kids in this country this last season.
[25:26] SPEAKER_00: 256 kids died from influenza.
[25:28] You know,
[25:29] there is so much more that we can do if we just had this
[25:32] investment in this area.
[25:34] SPEAKER_00: Now,
[25:35] SPEAKER_01: before I go to what the lapses are at the moment with a thing called HHA,
[25:42] SPEAKER_01: I do want to ask you,
[25:43] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[25:43] SPEAKER_01: right now,
[25:44] SPEAKER_01: of course,
[25:44] SPEAKER_01: we have a summer wave.
[25:46] SPEAKER_01: COVID will be with us for, you know, many, many years ahead.
[25:52] And in fact,
[25:52] many suggest that we may see another Omicron-like event just
[25:56] with this virus.
[25:57] SPEAKER_01: Because we have infinite number of,
[26:00] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[26:00] SPEAKER_01: mutation combinations and,
[26:02] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[26:02] SPEAKER_01: who knows what could happen.
[26:04] SPEAKER_01: But, you know, we have a lot of deaths now.
[26:06] SPEAKER_01: We've got hundreds of deaths.
[26:08] SPEAKER_01: We have more people getting long COVID.
[26:11] SPEAKER_01: We have vaccines that are being taken away from people.
[26:15] SPEAKER_01: unless they're fit with a 65 and older.
[26:18] SPEAKER_01: And even that is going to be hard to get in many states.
[26:21] SPEAKER_01: We have a mess right now.
[26:23] SPEAKER_01: We have a summer wave that,
[26:24] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[26:25] SPEAKER_01: we don't know exactly where that's going to,
[26:26] SPEAKER_01: it probably won't be as bad as prior ones,
[26:29] SPEAKER_01: but it's this XFG variant and all the other things that happen with,
[26:33] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[26:33] SPEAKER_01: with going back to school and whatnot.
[26:37] SPEAKER_01: What is your read on the current situation where we're being made
[26:42] SPEAKER_01: defenseless with the waning immunity and everything else?
[26:46] SPEAKER_01: Well,
[26:46] SPEAKER_00: first of all,
[26:47] SPEAKER_00: you laid it out so well,
[26:48] I wouldn't dare want to touch it because you actually did a
[26:51] better job than I
[26:52] SPEAKER_00: could.
[26:52] But let me just add,
[26:54] in the Trump-1 administration and in the Biden administration,
[26:59] SPEAKER_00: there was a very real presence of preparedness in the White House,
[27:04] SPEAKER_00: in the offices that were there.
[27:06] SPEAKER_00: And for example,
[27:08] SPEAKER_00: Dr.
[27:08] SPEAKER_00: Paul Friedrichs,
[27:09] SPEAKER_00: who headed this up during the Biden administration,
[27:11] SPEAKER_00: had a staff
[27:13] SPEAKER_00: a number of people, and they every day were on top of biopreparedness.
[27:18] SPEAKER_00: They were trying to deal with it.
[27:19] Do you know there's nobody now employed at the White House from
[27:22] the Security
[27:23] SPEAKER_00: Council without any expertise in this area?
[27:25] SPEAKER_00: None.
[27:25] SPEAKER_00: Zero zip.
[27:26] SPEAKER_00: Incredible.
[27:29] SPEAKER_00: If a crisis begins to happen today,
[27:31] they might as well go out and hail down the first taxi and ask
[27:34] the taxi driver what
[27:35] SPEAKER_00: the hell to do.
[27:36] SPEAKER_00: This is scary.
[27:37] SPEAKER_00: This is scary.
[27:39] SPEAKER_01: Michael,
[27:40] SPEAKER_01: I don't get it because here you have,
[27:43] SPEAKER_01: there's no one,
[27:44] SPEAKER_01: no pandemic prepared in this office anymore.
[27:46] SPEAKER_01: And is this denialism?
[27:48] SPEAKER_01: Is it just pure stupidity?
[27:50] SPEAKER_01: You know, we've seen how RFK Jr.
[27:53] SPEAKER_01: fired the CDC director through, of course, President Trump.
[27:57] But we also heard from the other people who you know well,
[28:01] these other CDC leading seniors.
[28:04] SPEAKER_01: that when anything happened,
[28:06] SPEAKER_01: like a measles outbreak or bird flu or whatever,
[28:09] SPEAKER_01: that they have all the expertise.
[28:11] SPEAKER_01: They were never consulted about anything.
[28:15] SPEAKER_01: What do you make of that?
[28:16] Well,
[28:17] let me tell you,
[28:17] we're down to a simple decision,
[28:19] a very simple decision.
[28:21] SPEAKER_00: Are we going to put our lot behind science,
[28:25] SPEAKER_00: something that over the past decades have given us many,
[28:28] SPEAKER_00: many gifts in terms of better health,
[28:30] SPEAKER_00: longer health,
[28:31] SPEAKER_00: et cetera?
[28:32] SPEAKER_00: I mean, think back to what it was before vaccines.
[28:34] Think back what it was before we had clean and safe water
[28:37] supplies,
[28:38] et cetera.
[28:38] SPEAKER_00: And since that time,
[28:39] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[28:40] SPEAKER_00: we've watched life expectancy in the last century go from,
[28:43] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[28:44] SPEAKER_00: in the high 40s,
[28:45] SPEAKER_00: low 50s to now in the 80s,
[28:46] SPEAKER_00: okay?
[28:47] SPEAKER_00: That came largely from public health.
[28:50] SPEAKER_00: So you've got science.
[28:52] SPEAKER_00: Or do you decide to go with magic, smoke, and mirrors?
[28:55] SPEAKER_00: And that's what the other alternative is.
[28:58] SPEAKER_00: It's magic, smoke, and mirrors.
[29:00] And I don't know when the public is going to wake up to the
[29:03] fact that they've got
[29:04] SPEAKER_00: to get their elected officials,
[29:05] SPEAKER_00: they've got to get people to understand...
[29:07] SPEAKER_00: This is not something that's just an ideological argument.
[29:10] SPEAKER_00: This is real people's lives.
[29:12] We are going to see major increases in deaths across the board
[29:16] from vaccine
[29:17] SPEAKER_00: preventable diseases,
[29:18] SPEAKER_00: from other diseases.
[29:20] SPEAKER_00: We're gutting the foodborne disease surveillance in this country.
[29:23] We're gutting the whole area of arboviruses and mosquitoes in
[29:27] this country.
[29:28] SPEAKER_00: And then, of course, look what we've done globally.
[29:30] SPEAKER_00: In terms of USAID and all the funding, we're no longer part of WHO.
[29:35] SPEAKER_00: And how many times did we stop outbreaks of certain diseases?
[29:45] SPEAKER_01: Cut out on the volume here.
[29:50] SPEAKER_01: I lost you on your volume audio.
[29:53] SPEAKER_01: Let's see if we get it back.
[29:55] SPEAKER_00: Okay.
[29:58] SPEAKER_00: I got it.
[29:58] SPEAKER_00: Sorry, I lost you there.
[30:01] SPEAKER_00: So the point,
[30:01] SPEAKER_00: though,
[30:02] SPEAKER_00: is that we are in much worse shape,
[30:04] SPEAKER_00: and I don't know what it's going to take,
[30:06] SPEAKER_00: but we have got to understand that it is clearly,
[30:10] SPEAKER_00: clearly a major decision by society.
[30:13] SPEAKER_00: Are we going to accept this or not?
[30:16] SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
[30:16] I mean,
[30:16] the thing is that everything has to look that we're going
[30:19] backwards.
[30:20] We're going into like a Byzantine era of public health in the
[30:25] United States,
[30:26] SPEAKER_01: just when the threats are more than perhaps ever,
[30:29] SPEAKER_01: and the science hasn't advanced or can advance,
[30:33] SPEAKER_01: the funding being reduced,
[30:35] the people with experience being lost because of resignations
[30:39] or being fired or
[30:41] SPEAKER_01: whatnot.
[30:41] SPEAKER_01: So I know you as an optimistic guy.
[30:47] I also,
[30:48] you know,
[30:49] it resonates through the big one book that you're hoping for
[30:53] the best.
[30:54] But are you able to keep your whole overall positive outlook
[31:02] with all that's going on?
[31:03] You know,
[31:04] Eric,
[31:04] I have been,
[31:06] I would say,
[31:08] affected by my kids in the following way.
[31:11] SPEAKER_00: Several years ago, they bought me an electronic picture frame.
[31:14] SPEAKER_00: That sits on my desk.
[31:15] SPEAKER_00: And every 30 seconds,
[31:17] SPEAKER_00: a new picture of one of my grandkids flashes up there,
[31:21] SPEAKER_00: singly or in combination.
[31:23] SPEAKER_00: And every meeting I'm in,
[31:24] SPEAKER_00: everything I do,
[31:25] I can't help but keep looking from time to time at that
[31:28] electronic picture frame.
[31:30] SPEAKER_00: And it gives me every motivation to keep going.
[31:33] SPEAKER_00: You know, what is it that we're leaving our kids and grandkids?
[31:36] SPEAKER_00: And so am I optimistic?
[31:37] Well,
[31:38] I guess I wouldn't keep doing this if I didn't think we could
[31:40] make a difference.
[31:41] SPEAKER_00: On the other hand, do I realize the challenge?
[31:43] SPEAKER_00: Yes.
[31:43] But that challenge is worth it if you're thinking about,
[31:46] you know,
[31:46] not me.
[31:47] SPEAKER_00: You know, I'm an old guy.
[31:48] SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, I'll be gone soon.
[31:49] SPEAKER_00: Okay.
[31:50] But my kids and grandkids are growing up into a world that if I
[31:53] haven't done
[31:54] SPEAKER_00: everything I can to make that world better,
[31:56] SPEAKER_00: then who the hell am I?
[31:57] SPEAKER_00: And so that's how I stay where I stay.
[31:59] SPEAKER_00: No, you're not at all that.
[32:01] SPEAKER_00: Super eight, we need you.
[32:03] SPEAKER_01: You got to hang.
[32:06] SPEAKER_01: I share actually your optimism.
[32:08] I think that ultimately we're in a tough spell here and that
[32:13] may be gone for some
[32:14] SPEAKER_01: period of time.
[32:15] SPEAKER_01: But I do think,
[32:17] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[32:17] SPEAKER_01: with the irrepressible advances in science,
[32:23] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[32:24] SPEAKER_01: that we know you outlined it so well in the book,
[32:26] SPEAKER_01: the things we have to do to get ready,
[32:29] SPEAKER_01: not reality.
[32:30] SPEAKER_01: but to be ready.
[32:31] SPEAKER_01: So I'm hoping that before this comes on,
[32:35] SPEAKER_01: whether it's SARS-3 or whatever,
[32:37] SPEAKER_01: that the big one is,
[32:38] SPEAKER_01: that we will ultimately be ready.
[32:40] SPEAKER_01: And we're going through a rough time right now.
[32:43] SPEAKER_01: But you know what?
[32:44] SPEAKER_01: There's so many smart people out there
[32:47] I know in many academic groups throughout the world that are on
[32:51] this and it can't
[32:52] SPEAKER_01: be suppressed,
[32:54] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[32:55] SPEAKER_01: and the advances that we made.
[32:56] SPEAKER_01: So I want to just close, well, say, you know, this is an incredible book.
[33:04] SPEAKER_01: Thank you.
[33:04] SPEAKER_01: You know what?
[33:05] SPEAKER_01: It's much bigger than that because,
[33:06] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[33:07] SPEAKER_01: we have,
[33:07] SPEAKER_01: we're getting rid of vaccines for children as a,
[33:10] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[33:11] SPEAKER_01: today we offer in Florida,
[33:13] SPEAKER_01: who knows where next.
[33:14] SPEAKER_01: I mean,
[33:15] SPEAKER_01: there's going to be more infectious disease problems in the short term,
[33:19] SPEAKER_01: but we are not short-term thinkers.
[33:22] SPEAKER_01: The fact that you wrote this book is you're looking, you know, long-term.
[33:26] SPEAKER_01: You're saying,
[33:27] SPEAKER_01: you know,
[33:27] SPEAKER_01: what are we going to do here so that we don't get in this mess,
[33:30] SPEAKER_01: this horrific mess that
[33:33] SPEAKER_01: again.
[33:34] SPEAKER_01: So thank you for putting this together.
[33:35] SPEAKER_01: And everybody should know if they want to see Mike in action tonight,
[33:41] SPEAKER_01: Anderson Cooper,
[33:43] SPEAKER_01: seeing him with Anderson.
[33:45] SPEAKER_01: It'll be a great interview.
[33:46] SPEAKER_01: I know.
[33:46] SPEAKER_01: Thank you.
[33:48] SPEAKER_01: Anderson many other times.
[33:49] SPEAKER_01: Any other closing thoughts, Michael?
[33:52] SPEAKER_00: You know, two things.
[33:55] SPEAKER_00: One is just quickly, there was an oil frame commercial back in the 1950s.
[33:59] SPEAKER_00: And the tagline was, you can pay me now or you'll pay me later.
[34:03] And I think we have to understand we're going to pay for this
[34:06] one way or the other.
[34:07] SPEAKER_00: But if we pay now, what it costs us will be very, very different.
[34:12] SPEAKER_00: The final piece is, you know, we are in tough times.
[34:15] SPEAKER_00: And,
[34:15] SPEAKER_00: you know,
[34:16] our group has started this vaccine integrity project to help
[34:19] support vaccine
[34:19] SPEAKER_00: availability,
[34:20] SPEAKER_00: et cetera.
[34:21] SPEAKER_00: And we have a motto at our center,
[34:23] SPEAKER_00: CIDRAP,
[34:24] SPEAKER_00: and it's,
[34:24] SPEAKER_00: we will bend and we will bend,
[34:27] SPEAKER_00: but we will not break.
[34:28] SPEAKER_00: And I think all of us need to take that attitude right now.
[34:31] SPEAKER_00: Despite what's going on, we're not going to break.
[34:34] SPEAKER_01: Actually,
[34:34] I'm really glad you mentioned that because that's another
[34:37] action point that you
[34:38] SPEAKER_01: have been leading,
[34:39] SPEAKER_01: which is your SIDRAF.
[34:44] SPEAKER_01: You have created a vaccine integrity project.
[34:48] SPEAKER_01: And I don't want to say it's like alt-whatever.
[34:51] SPEAKER_01: It is alt-whatever.
[34:53] And you're coming with good information that everybody should
[34:56] be tuned in on.
[34:57] SPEAKER_01: So, you know, that was just announced recently.
[35:01] And it's fantastic that you are working on that because we need
[35:05] a great source.
[35:06] SPEAKER_01: And it's hard to find a better source.
[35:08] SPEAKER_01: You, SIDRAP, your collaborators.
[35:10] SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
[35:11] SPEAKER_01: Mike,
[35:11] SPEAKER_01: thanks so much for joining today on Ground Truths,
[35:14] SPEAKER_01: and we'll look forward to your continued work.
[35:19] The book is just one more pillar in all that effort,
[35:23] and I'll be watching tonight.
[35:25] SPEAKER_00: Okay, and I just have one request.
[35:27] SPEAKER_00: Please keep you and my teacher, okay?
[35:29] SPEAKER_00: I'm learning.
[35:30] SPEAKER_00: I still got a lot to go.
[35:31] SPEAKER_00: Oh, my God.
[35:33] SPEAKER_01: You're too much.
[35:34] SPEAKER_01: I really appreciate it, and we'll talk again soon.
[35:36] SPEAKER_01: Thank you.
[35:37] SPEAKER_01: Bye-bye.
[35:38] SPEAKER_01: Bye-bye now.

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