# ep 378 | The week ahead - It's OCR week! Will the RBNZ hike or hold?

An episode of [On Point](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1667364727), 4 Jul 2026, 13 min.

Audio: https://anchor.fm/s/6a9959d4/podcast/play/122365858/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2026-6-4%2F427328511-44100-2-77d07341578e1.m4a

It'll be a holiday-shortened week here in New Zealand, with markets closed for the Matariki holiday on Friday. The clear highlight will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision on Wednesday, which is shaping up as a very interesting one. Market pricing implies a 76% chance of a hike, although oil prices have fallen back to well below the base case presented by the RBNZ in May, and inflation indicators in last week's ANZ Business Outlook survey were much softer as well.

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