# Oil Climbs With US-Iran Deal Still Elusive, Shangri-La Dialogue

An episode of [Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1663863437), 1 Jun 2026, 16 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/58e85be7-dbb5-4043-afed-af80014dc0b3/70d11921-5a04-4209-ba00-b45c0012cbcf/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=27143354-63aa-4ac5-965d-af80014dc0d3

Business and finance news from the Asia-Pacific. Oil climbed and the dollar strengthened as negotiations to extend the US-Iran ceasefire showed few signs of a breakthrough. Brent crude rose above $93 a barrel, rebounding from its lowest close since mid-April as tensions in the Middle East remained elevated and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz showed little progress. For more on the markets, Bloomberg TV host Haidi Stroud Watts spoke to Jun Bei Liu, Ten Cap Co-founder and Lead Portfolio Manager. Plus - Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro outlines deepening military ties with a network of US allies or defense partners to Bloomberg TV. He tells Haslinda Amin why it's important to work together on military deterrence. They speak on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
[0:10] Speaker 2: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Charlie Peat. Doug
[0:15] Speaker 2: Chrisner has the day off oil climb. Does tensions remain
[0:19] Speaker 2: elevated in the Middle East with negotiations over a permanent
[0:22] Speaker 2: US are on ceasefire showing little sign of a breakthrough.
[0:27] Speaker 2: For more on the markets, we heard from June Belu,
[0:30] Speaker 2: co founder and lead portfolio manager at Tencap, and she
[0:34] Speaker 2: spoke to Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud Watts.
[0:37] Speaker 1: What are you seeing in terms of pretty low volatility,
[0:41] Speaker 1: particularly when it comes to international stocks, right, despite still
[0:45] Speaker 1: a lot of uncertainty over the geopolitical situation.
[0:47] Speaker 3: Absolutely, looka Marca has taken the view that we will
[0:50] Speaker 3: find a path through and you know, and at this
[0:53] Speaker 3: moment certainly looks like we're progressing forwards. Now. I guess
[0:56] Speaker 3: the challenge is that, you know, actually it's not challenging
[1:00] Speaker 3: what the market is looking for. It's for the inflation,
[1:02] Speaker 3: so you know, it's trading with the inflation their expectations.
[1:06] Speaker 3: So as long as the oil price will fall, the
[1:08] Speaker 3: market will move forward and regardless what the outcome might be.
[1:11] Speaker 3: Now we are seeing the oil hovering around that level
[1:14] Speaker 3: right now, and you know we're waiting for the final outcome.
[1:18] Speaker 3: And that does happen, you know, we will see a
[1:20] Speaker 3: risk rally, you know, across the board, even though the
[1:22] Speaker 3: market has already been pretty strong.
[1:24] Speaker 1: Is that even if you know, we've been told that
[1:26] Speaker 1: even if we see an agreement, it's going to say,
[1:28] Speaker 1: take some time for oil prices, normal normalist we might
[1:31] Speaker 1: still see that path through and we're out of a
[1:34] Speaker 1: situation where a toll is being charged for vessels, right,
[1:37] Speaker 1: So look that that sort of manutiar mater to markets
[1:40] Speaker 1: that clearly just want to find a reason to go.
[1:42] Speaker 3: Yeah, that's where the market seems to by by every
[1:44] Speaker 3: possible outcome. No, I do think the market that's what
[1:48] Speaker 3: they want to see is essentially some of the ships
[1:50] Speaker 3: go through the strait A and whether there will be
[1:53] Speaker 3: a toll and other outcome. I think the likely effect
[1:57] Speaker 3: in the short term certainly is not going to be significant.
[1:59] Speaker 3: I think essentially they just want to ships go through
[2:01] Speaker 3: the go through that part, and then twenty percent of
[2:04] Speaker 3: oil can be then you know, go through the UH
[2:07] Speaker 3: can then be the dispersed. So you know, so we
[2:10] Speaker 3: do need some sort of resolution on that front. Now
[2:13] Speaker 3: the tricky thing is at the moment for the market,
[2:15] Speaker 3: right because it's rarely for so much, and that we're
[2:17] Speaker 3: looking past any of those negativity, you know, we are
[2:20] Speaker 3: really neat to see is the oil going to fall
[2:22] Speaker 3: really quickly? You know, if they do put a toll,
[2:24] Speaker 3: what does that mean for the long term oil prices.
[2:26] Speaker 3: What's interesting is that you know, market just assumesh oil
[2:29] Speaker 3: price will go down to you know, perhaps a slight
[2:33] Speaker 3: premium to what it was before. But my view is
[2:35] Speaker 3: that the oil might remain elevated just simply because it
[2:38] Speaker 3: will take time for a lot of those backlog ships
[2:42] Speaker 3: to go through. At the same time, some of those
[2:44] Speaker 3: that spread will remain elevated. And at the same time,
[2:47] Speaker 3: aside from oil price itself, every manufacturer and every consumer
[2:51] Speaker 3: company has already put through price increases through and these
[2:55] Speaker 3: you know, these price pressure you know is likely to
[2:58] Speaker 3: remain elevated, and that might take a long time to
[3:01] Speaker 3: come through, and that will have real economic consequences.
[3:04] Speaker 1: There's also the inflationary risk of AI right on the
[3:08] Speaker 1: massive amounts of infrastructure investment and build out. How do
[3:12] Speaker 1: you think that plays into things and do you do
[3:14] Speaker 1: you look for sort of diversification at this point, because
[3:18] Speaker 1: this is a rally that's still so concentrated.
[3:20] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[3:21] Speaker 3: Absolutely, So look what we do think that the thematic
[3:23] Speaker 3: is real because all of us are using more and
[3:25] Speaker 3: more AI every day, we use agents and help us
[3:27] Speaker 3: to be more efficient. So I think that is still
[3:29] Speaker 3: to come. So and all these investment into the you know,
[3:33] Speaker 3: the hyperscalar, investment into the data center and everything else,
[3:36] Speaker 3: and that's all real. The demand for commodity, demand for energy,
[3:39] Speaker 3: all of that demand is going to be real. So
[3:41] Speaker 3: we look for that whole supply chain as we have
[3:43] Speaker 3: been for the last twelve month. You know, we think
[3:45] Speaker 3: the AI leader will continue perhaps power on, but there
[3:48] Speaker 3: is risk that you know, the return they would likely
[3:50] Speaker 3: to generate from it over the longer period. But we
[3:53] Speaker 3: much much more prefer to play in that whole what
[3:56] Speaker 3: do they call it, picks and shovel sort of space
[3:59] Speaker 3: where you can actually you see real demand guaranteed for
[4:02] Speaker 3: years to come.
[4:02] Speaker 1: Are there Pickel travels in the Australian market.
[4:04] Speaker 3: Australian market, Absolutely, we see a lot of them. Right,
[4:07] Speaker 3: So we see or the mineral, whether it's a copper's amnium,
[4:10] Speaker 3: and then the whole whole supply chain. We also see
[4:13] Speaker 3: companies that's in the engineering space, so aside from the
[4:16] Speaker 3: data center, so look at all the people that's applied
[4:18] Speaker 3: to the data center, engineers installing all of these things.
[4:21] Speaker 3: So we see a lot of companies in these space
[4:23] Speaker 3: are doing particularly well. What's interesting though, many of them
[4:26] Speaker 3: are still quite small, so you know, so we do
[4:28] Speaker 3: think that's the next wave for growth in the Australian
[4:31] Speaker 3: market and globally as well.
[4:32] Speaker 1: What do you like in China right now?
[4:34] Speaker 3: I think in China is the starts even look a
[4:36] Speaker 3: little bit softer, but we continue to like the areas
[4:39] Speaker 3: where they go where the government is pouring a lot
[4:42] Speaker 3: of you know, focused into whether it's a technology AI,
[4:45] Speaker 3: where it's electrification again the same thematic.
[4:49] Speaker 4: You've got to keep doing.
[4:49] Speaker 3: That, that's right.
[4:51] Speaker 1: The consumer though, is still a soft spot for China.
[4:55] Speaker 3: I think the problem is consumer is actually a soft
[4:57] Speaker 3: soft spot for everywhere right now. Consumer in China actually
[5:01] Speaker 3: is not doing too badly. It's certainly come from very
[5:03] Speaker 3: very low levels. We are seeing the housing stabilizing, not
[5:07] Speaker 3: as bad as it was. You know, consumer, they are traveling,
[5:11] Speaker 3: we're seeing all the early indicator. It's actually consumer's not
[5:13] Speaker 3: doing too badly, and the consumer started investing the share
[5:16] Speaker 3: marker as well. The share marker is doing quite well too,
[5:18] Speaker 3: so you know, all of that is just feeding back
[5:20] Speaker 3: into the consumer confidence. We just need to see the
[5:22] Speaker 3: real income growth for another couple of quarters and I
[5:25] Speaker 3: do think the consumer will come back in a big
[5:27] Speaker 3: way in China. But around the world, I do think
[5:29] Speaker 3: consumer sector is going to be a tough spot. You know,
[5:31] Speaker 3: whether here in Australia, in the US, US consumer is
[5:34] Speaker 3: still holding up together, okay, but I think with the
[5:38] Speaker 3: commodities doing well, with the industrial businesses doing well, generally
[5:42] Speaker 3: just means more inflationary pressure, you know, and put pressure
[5:47] Speaker 3: on the consumer spending a little.
[5:49] Speaker 1: Bit sort of left field. But the recent tax changes
[5:51] Speaker 1: in the budget, do you think they're going to have
[5:53] Speaker 1: a meaningful inplight on risk assets?
[5:55] Speaker 3: Yeah, so for Australia absolutely, you know, particularly housing related,
[5:59] Speaker 3: that straight sensitive space. We think the housing related there's
[6:03] Speaker 3: now a lot of reports and just deep analysis into
[6:06] Speaker 3: what it means. I think with the negative gearing and
[6:09] Speaker 3: capital gains changes for the housing market in particular, that
[6:12] Speaker 3: going to slow down the housing turnover because of the
[6:14] Speaker 3: different investors, different tax Recket. You know, the expectations for
[6:18] Speaker 3: prices are very very different now, so that means, you know,
[6:21] Speaker 3: we think the listings will will fall. We do think
[6:24] Speaker 3: that the prices for houses is going to fall, but
[6:28] Speaker 3: not to huge extents. You know, Australia house prices seems
[6:31] Speaker 3: to be going ever going up, but you know we
[6:33] Speaker 3: are predicting something like five percent four in the next
[6:36] Speaker 3: twelve months. That is going then put pressure into you know,
[6:39] Speaker 3: consumer confidence and everything else.
[6:41] Speaker 1: Yeah, but not for equities though. In terms of the
[6:43] Speaker 1: impact of the tax changes.
[6:44] Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think it's a meaningful impact. Ultimately, people say, oh, look,
[6:47] Speaker 3: you know that, does that mean you're going to invest
[6:49] Speaker 3: more in the income shares than the growth share. So
[6:51] Speaker 3: if I'm a new investor I want to buy a
[6:53] Speaker 3: growth company, I'm not going to think about how much
[6:55] Speaker 3: tax I'm going to pay. Ultimately, I'm thinking this company
[6:58] Speaker 3: is going to grow a lot, So I they just
[7:00] Speaker 3: think they're different investors. So I don't think that has
[7:02] Speaker 3: a meaningful impact. But if anything, it does look like
[7:05] Speaker 3: politics is shifting the way that potentially that gets reversed.
[7:09] Speaker 2: June Belu, co founder and lead portfolio manager at Tencap,
[7:13] Speaker 2: speaking to Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud Watts. Coming up,
[7:18] Speaker 2: We'll take you to Singapore where the Shangri Lad Dialogue
[7:22] Speaker 2: happened over the weekend. We will bring you our exclusive
[7:25] Speaker 2: conversation with Gilberto Teodoro, the Philippines Defense Secretary, here on
[7:31] Speaker 2: the Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast.
[7:44] Speaker 2: I'm Charlie Pellet Doug Chrisoner, who's got the day off,
[7:46] Speaker 2: and we go to Singapore now, where a defense summit
[7:49] Speaker 2: happened over the weekend. It's called the Shangualad Dialogue. It
[7:53] Speaker 2: is recognized as Asia's premier defense summit, with senior officials
[7:58] Speaker 2: gathering to discuss the region's most pressing security challenges. And
[8:02] Speaker 2: that's where we had the chance to speak with Gilberto Theodoro,
[8:05] Speaker 2: the Philippines Defense Secretary. He said the Philippines is seeking
[8:10] Speaker 2: closer ties with Taiwan and stronger military links with nations
[8:15] Speaker 2: focused on deterring China's quote nefarious plans, and he spoke
[8:19] Speaker 2: to Bloomberg's has Linda Amen.
[8:22] Speaker 4: Why is this important to talk to us about? The timing?
[8:25] Speaker 5: Is it because of the increasing geo political tensions around
[8:30] Speaker 5: the world and specifically China's military build up.
[8:33] Speaker 6: Well, definitely, it's spread on by that because the sad
[8:36] Speaker 6: lesson in Ukraine, for example, is that no country is
[8:41] Speaker 6: immune from conflict, and the terrence really is an active endeavor,
[8:47] Speaker 6: of which the terrence is a function of a country's
[8:53] Speaker 6: own resilience. And if there still is an imbalance with
[8:56] Speaker 6: a bigger aggressor or potential aggressor, you have to leverage
[9:01] Speaker 6: alliances in order to clad yourselves against the various practices
[9:09] Speaker 6: of an aggressor. And with the actors of the same
[9:15] Speaker 6: persuasion around the world, it's pretty clear who they are
[9:19] Speaker 6: where they operate. In the Philippines, it happens to be
[9:21] Speaker 6: China because of its expansionism in the West Philippines Sea.
[9:26] Speaker 6: And it's so the lesson of Chandrila dialogue today is
[9:32] Speaker 6: that conflicts in Europe and affect the in the Pacific
[9:38] Speaker 6: not only on the effects of the conflict, but also
[9:42] Speaker 6: as to the director in direct participants in these conflicts.
[9:49] Speaker 6: It also is a matter of note in so far
[9:52] Speaker 6: as Philippine convergence in the Philippines rather is concerned. Australia
[9:57] Speaker 6: and New Zealand, as distant as they are, feel that
[10:02] Speaker 6: their supply chains need to be made resilient through convergence
[10:09] Speaker 6: in the Philippines, because they see the Philippines and our
[10:15] Speaker 6: legal planning for our convergence to be vital to ensure
[10:21] Speaker 6: a strategy of sustainability, transparency and legality with the freedom
[10:29] Speaker 6: of navigation and opening up supply chains.
[10:33] Speaker 5: China says these deployments are detrimental to regional stability.
[10:37] Speaker 4: How do you respond to that.
[10:40] Speaker 6: I don't think I need to respond, but just to
[10:43] Speaker 6: point out certain things. They are the only ones saying this,
[10:47] Speaker 6: and why they're saying it. Probably it is a hindrance
[10:50] Speaker 6: to whatever nevarious plants they have, they being the only
[10:54] Speaker 6: one saying it and saying it repeatedly against anyone who converted.
[11:00] Speaker 6: Even the Dutch vessel which transited and in the High
[11:10] Speaker 6: Seas went to the Philippines they said was destructive of
[11:14] Speaker 6: regional stability. It is a byword in the Chinese propaganda
[11:19] Speaker 6: which is a bit tiring, dated ineffective.
[11:22] Speaker 5: But as you said, it is for deterrents. Has it
[11:25] Speaker 5: worked because Chinese activities continue and the tensions in the
[11:29] Speaker 5: South Chinese Sea also continue.
[11:31] Speaker 6: Yeah, but it's not going to be solved overnight. We're
[11:34] Speaker 6: not going to expect China to stop overnight, but the
[11:36] Speaker 6: calculus that is presented to them makes their decision process
[11:42] Speaker 6: more difficult.
[11:44] Speaker 5: We heard from President Marcos recently about how the Philippines
[11:48] Speaker 5: is prepared to play a part if anything happens in
[11:51] Speaker 5: Taiwan because.
[11:52] Speaker 4: It is a close nigh. What role will the Philippines
[11:56] Speaker 4: play in that?
[11:57] Speaker 6: First and foremost, the Philippines will secure its sovereignty and
[12:03] Speaker 6: territorial integulity, so what role it plays depends on what
[12:07] Speaker 6: China does. The Philippines defense engagements and external relations are
[12:14] Speaker 6: purely defensive by statutory fea and of course by practicality too.
[12:22] Speaker 6: We cannot afford involving ourselves into external forays, so it
[12:28] Speaker 6: will be purely defensive and depends entirely on what we
[12:32] Speaker 6: anticipate China to do to us. Secondly, it will also
[12:38] Speaker 6: involve opening up our supply chains against and making sure
[12:43] Speaker 6: that China does not close this these supply chains and
[12:48] Speaker 6: the sea lines of communication in order to secure whatever
[12:52] Speaker 6: victory wants. Thirdly, we have two hundred thousand Filipinos in
[12:56] Speaker 6: Taiwan who may need to be repatriated, and we have
[13:03] Speaker 6: to anticipate actions Anticipation is a key to deterrence and
[13:08] Speaker 6: it is key to saving lives, and it is responsible
[13:10] Speaker 6: for us to plan for contingencies. Were gonna just wait
[13:15] Speaker 6: passively to see what China does, although operative, facts of
[13:21] Speaker 6: China's overt behavior will determine where we go.
[13:25] Speaker 5: So what are the scenarios that have been planned with Taiwan?
[13:30] Speaker 6: No, not with Taiwan. We do not interoperate with Taiwan,
[13:34] Speaker 6: except perhaps on a humanitarian assistance and disaster response. Other
[13:40] Speaker 6: departments are free to engage with Taiwan, but based on
[13:44] Speaker 6: the One China policy, the Department of Foreign Affairs and
[13:47] Speaker 6: the Department of National Defense are not allowed to engage
[13:51] Speaker 6: with Taiwan.
[13:54] Speaker 5: When it comes to Japan, that seems to be a
[13:56] Speaker 5: new military relationship. I mean in his during his visit
[14:02] Speaker 5: to Japan, President Marcos agreed with his counterparty in Japan
[14:08] Speaker 5: to exchange intelligence military intelligence.
[14:11] Speaker 4: Why is that important at this time?
[14:13] Speaker 6: Well, it provides the operational security planning for interoperability because
[14:21] Speaker 6: information is one of the most precious assets one can
[14:27] Speaker 6: have in a most potent asset that may fall into
[14:32] Speaker 6: wrong hands. Secondly, we need the secrecy of information agreement
[14:38] Speaker 6: in order to be a recipient or a purchaser of
[14:43] Speaker 6: japan defense equipment of which the technology, of course is
[14:48] Speaker 6: in Japan's interests and the Filipini interests to remain confidentially
[14:51] Speaker 6: in secret.
[14:52] Speaker 2: Gilberto Theodoro, the Philippines Defense Secretary, speaking to Bloomberg's has
[14:57] Speaker 2: Linda Ahmen from the sidelines of the Shanguala Dialogue in Singapore.
[15:06] Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak
[15:09] Speaker 2: Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story
[15:13] Speaker 2: shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You
[15:17] Speaker 2: can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel,
[15:21] Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for
[15:25] Speaker 2: insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore
[15:28] Speaker 2: and Australia. I'm Doug Prisner, and this is Bloomberg

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