# Market Analysis, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on US Trade Policy

An episode of [Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1663863437), 16 Jul 2026, 25 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/58e85be7-dbb5-4043-afed-af80014dc0b3/574b62c4-d1cd-4581-a617-b4890011d3d1/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=27143354-63aa-4ac5-965d-af80014dc0d3

Business and finance news from the Asia-Pacific. West Texas Intermediate traded above $80 a barrel after adding more than 11% in the previous three sessions, as the US continued its attacks on Iran in a bid to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Gasoil prices, however, were a touch weaker in the previous session. Equity-index futures pointed to declines in Japan and South Korea, while those for Hong Kong and Australia indicated gains. Earlier, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%, while a US semiconductor gauge pared some of its losses to finish down more than 2%. For a look at the markets we spoke to Ross Mayfield, Investment Strategist at Baird. For a look at trade across the world, we bring you a special interview, Bloomberg's David Gura sat down with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to discuss the section 301 investigation on Brazil, the trade surplus with Switzerland, and more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
[0:11] Speaker 2: Welcome to the Dave Break Asia Podcast. I'm Dog Krisner.
[0:14] Speaker 2: Semiconductor stocks are being hard hit right now in South Korea.
[0:17] Speaker 2: At the moment, the entire group is down about ten percent,
[0:21] Speaker 2: leading the costby lower by roughly six percent. Now, these
[0:25] Speaker 2: losses come ahead of second quarter earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor
[0:28] Speaker 2: Manufacturing TSMC is set to report its results before the
[0:32] Speaker 2: US market opens on Thursday. Yes, guidance will be crucial,
[0:37] Speaker 2: and so will the numbers on CAPEC spending, as we
[0:41] Speaker 2: hear from Bloomberg Steven Engel.
[0:42] Speaker 3: Yeah, well, that previous guidance was for a near record
[0:45] Speaker 3: outlays this year of fifty six billion dollars, but UBS
[0:50] Speaker 3: for one is saying, you know, given the demand out
[0:52] Speaker 3: there right now, there could be a number released upwards
[0:56] Speaker 3: of sixty billion, So that is something that we're going
[0:59] Speaker 3: to be looking quite closely at. Also, of course, we
[1:02] Speaker 3: got those storm delayed sales figures for the second quarter
[1:06] Speaker 3: on Monday, which saw thirty six percent rise in sales
[1:10] Speaker 3: at TSMC, including a sixty eight percent jump in June alone,
[1:14] Speaker 3: So that's a good harbinger for.
[1:16] Speaker 4: The revenue side.
[1:17] Speaker 3: We'll have to see though, if.
[1:19] Speaker 4: Margins are being squeezed though, as they increase ramp up
[1:22] Speaker 4: or production of two nanometer technology and two as well
[1:27] Speaker 4: as their expansions overseas and most specifically in the United
[1:31] Speaker 4: States in Arizona.
[1:32] Speaker 2: That is Bloomberg Steven Engel for a closer look at
[1:35] Speaker 2: market action. I'm joined by Ross Mayfield. He's investment strategist
[1:39] Speaker 2: at Baird and Ross joins from Louisville, Kentucky. Thank you
[1:42] Speaker 2: for being here. Give me your sense of what you're
[1:44] Speaker 2: seeing in the market today. We had the PPI reading
[1:47] Speaker 2: that came in. I don't want to say it was cool,
[1:50] Speaker 2: but it certainly allowed the market to breathe a sigh
[1:52] Speaker 2: of relief when the conversation lately has been around the
[1:56] Speaker 2: Fed hiking interest rates, maybe as soon as this month.
[2:00] Speaker 2: That doesn't seem to be in the cards right now.
[2:02] Speaker 2: But what are we seeing overall in the market. There
[2:05] Speaker 2: certainly has been a lot of volatility.
[2:08] Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely a lot of volatility as this momentum trade
[2:11] Speaker 5: kind of takes a pause and unwinds a bit. I mean,
[2:14] Speaker 5: it seems like you wake up every morning and see
[2:17] Speaker 5: that overnight the Korean cost we was upper down ten
[2:20] Speaker 5: plus percent, which is which is crazy for a market
[2:22] Speaker 5: of its prominence at this point.
[2:24] Speaker 6: You know, today, I think you're right.
[2:25] Speaker 5: PPI was far from cool, but it was cool enough
[2:29] Speaker 5: that it let investors, you know, focus on the combination
[2:32] Speaker 5: of CPI and PPI and say, well, this is heading
[2:35] Speaker 5: in the right direction. As long as you know, tensions
[2:39] Speaker 5: in Iran don't flare up and send crude back over
[2:41] Speaker 5: one hundred dollars a barrel. It gives the FED room
[2:44] Speaker 5: to breathe, and I think that's all the market wants
[2:46] Speaker 5: at this point, is a little bit of time. You know,
[2:50] Speaker 5: core inflation, particularly that core CPI number being down month
[2:53] Speaker 5: over month for the first time since the pandemic, I
[2:56] Speaker 5: think really underscores, you know, a lot of disinflation in
[3:00] Speaker 5: the system that the FED can goob onto if they're not,
[3:05] Speaker 5: you know, not wanting to hike grades later this year.
[3:07] Speaker 2: I want to get your take on the AI trade
[3:09] Speaker 2: because in the last week we had some pretty upbeat
[3:11] Speaker 2: guidance from ASML, the Dutch semiconductory equipment maker, and now
[3:17] Speaker 2: we're being told to do Anthropic is going to be
[3:20] Speaker 2: meeting with investors maybe in the coming weeks about its
[3:24] Speaker 2: potential mega IPO. How are you feeling about this AI
[3:29] Speaker 2: enthusiasm right now? Is it waning a little bit? Are
[3:31] Speaker 2: there questions about whether or not it is too extended
[3:35] Speaker 2: or does this still have legs?
[3:39] Speaker 6: I think it still has legs, you know.
[3:40] Speaker 5: I think a healthy consolidation of some names and industries
[3:45] Speaker 5: that have gone you know, parabolic this year is a
[3:48] Speaker 5: pretty healthy thing. I think the thing to watch is
[3:52] Speaker 5: when you get weakness in leadership, where does the money go?
[3:55] Speaker 5: And typically, you know, over the last six eight weeks,
[3:58] Speaker 5: we've seen a rotation in to you know, maybe it's
[4:01] Speaker 5: financials or industrials. Maybe some money goes back to the
[4:05] Speaker 5: mag seven, which has had a nice couple of days,
[4:08] Speaker 5: you know, cyber security software adjacent stocks. So money is
[4:12] Speaker 5: not leaving and it's not even really chasing defensive assets.
[4:16] Speaker 6: So I think there's you know, yes.
[4:18] Speaker 5: The recontextualization of what you do with these memory stocks
[4:22] Speaker 5: up four five, six year to date, which I think
[4:26] Speaker 5: is a totally fair question to ask of them, even
[4:28] Speaker 5: though their earnings have been outstanding. But it's where the
[4:32] Speaker 5: money is headed that lets me think the AI trade
[4:34] Speaker 5: in the bull market still have plenty of legs. Because
[4:36] Speaker 5: it's it's not fleeing the asset, it's not a defensive move,
[4:40] Speaker 5: more of just a you know, seeking value elsewhere.
[4:43] Speaker 2: So the earning season, as you know, is underway. We
[4:45] Speaker 2: heard this week from the big banks. It's going to
[4:48] Speaker 2: be important, I think, to get the take on what
[4:52] Speaker 2: we're hearing from Hyperscalers and some of the big cloud
[4:55] Speaker 2: computing companies, whether we're talking about Amazon or Alphabet or
[4:58] Speaker 2: even Meta. Are you putting a lot of stock in
[5:02] Speaker 2: what we will hear from those companies before you put
[5:06] Speaker 2: more money to work.
[5:08] Speaker 6: Yeah? Absolutely.
[5:09] Speaker 5: I mean I think the bar is extremely high for
[5:13] Speaker 5: this earning season, and we you know, I expect a
[5:16] Speaker 5: lot of earnings across the board. And so then the
[5:20] Speaker 5: next move in the market comes down to, you know,
[5:23] Speaker 5: where is guidance. And you know, particularly for the mag seven,
[5:27] Speaker 5: they have lagged for the entirety of this year. I
[5:31] Speaker 5: think because of nervousness about you know, the cap X
[5:34] Speaker 5: and the amount of spending that they're putting into the ground.
[5:36] Speaker 5: So I think I think, yeah, the guidance there and
[5:38] Speaker 5: what they're seeing as as far as returns on investment
[5:42] Speaker 5: is going to be really important for whether you know,
[5:45] Speaker 5: investors want to leg back into those stocks because they're
[5:48] Speaker 5: a totally different value proposition than they were even a
[5:50] Speaker 5: couple of years ago. For a long time, they've been safe,
[5:53] Speaker 5: have in trades, almost you know, stall warts when there's
[5:56] Speaker 5: volatility in the market because of their cash position, because
[5:58] Speaker 5: of their low debt, and now they're basically the opposite.
[6:02] Speaker 5: It doesn't mean they can't work, it doesn't mean that
[6:04] Speaker 5: they're any less influential, but it's a totally different value
[6:06] Speaker 5: proposition for investors. And the capex guidance for the next
[6:10] Speaker 5: couple of years, I think is the thing everyone's going
[6:12] Speaker 5: to be watching, and then you know, I'll always be
[6:14] Speaker 5: watching the consumer facing companies. I was heartened to see
[6:17] Speaker 5: the banks have positive things to say about the state
[6:20] Speaker 5: of the consumer, but we want an economy that's more
[6:24] Speaker 5: than just AI capex, and the state of the consumer
[6:28] Speaker 5: matters greatly for the kind of breadth and resilience of
[6:31] Speaker 5: the US economy here, because if that capex ever slows,
[6:34] Speaker 5: we need a backstop, and consumer spending and the other
[6:37] Speaker 5: parts of the economy are that backstop.
[6:39] Speaker 2: So there's another question here, and I think fed Scherk
[6:42] Speaker 2: Kevin Worsh tried to get at it today when he
[6:45] Speaker 2: pushed back on this idea that this big investment that
[6:48] Speaker 2: we have seen in AI is stoking inflation, he did
[6:52] Speaker 2: say that, yes, this investment has already raised prices in
[6:56] Speaker 2: some goods, although I thought it was curious that he's
[6:59] Speaker 2: set higher prices at least in the near term, or
[7:01] Speaker 2: not necessarily inflationary. You may disagree with that. We have
[7:05] Speaker 2: heard from a number of businesses warning of supply crunches
[7:09] Speaker 2: in areas resources and materials. I'm thinking energy. Obviously, labor
[7:14] Speaker 2: is a component there, chips, definitely, even software to some extent,
[7:19] Speaker 2: although the IBM news this week was a little interesting.
[7:22] Speaker 2: We can talk about that in a minute. But how
[7:24] Speaker 2: are you feeling about this idea that AI is really
[7:28] Speaker 2: contributing to upward pressure and inflation.
[7:32] Speaker 5: Well, I think it clearly is at this point, at
[7:34] Speaker 5: least in you know, chips and memory and kind of
[7:38] Speaker 5: consumer facing tech. You know, Apple and Microsoft are raising prices.
[7:43] Speaker 5: You know, most consumers are very familiar. Know they might
[7:46] Speaker 5: not know sk Heiinex, but they know Apple, and so
[7:50] Speaker 5: if Kevin Wors is saying it's not inflationary, I think
[7:53] Speaker 5: maybe you could look at, you know, kind of medium
[7:57] Speaker 5: term break even rates and say, well, there's no big
[8:00] Speaker 5: move higher in inflation expectations. So this is, you know,
[8:04] Speaker 5: not all too different than an oil shock. It's a
[8:07] Speaker 5: supply shock that you know will work itself out, and
[8:10] Speaker 5: the FED doesn't want to hike rates into a supply shock.
[8:13] Speaker 6: So I could maybe buy that argument a little bit.
[8:15] Speaker 5: But I do think there's clearly inflation throughout the tech
[8:18] Speaker 5: supply chain that's starting to show up in consumer prices,
[8:21] Speaker 5: and you know what is inflation if not? You know
[8:24] Speaker 5: that exactly now, Whether it, you know, impacts whether the
[8:27] Speaker 5: FED is hiking down the road is an open question.
[8:30] Speaker 5: It seems like worsh wants to push back against that,
[8:34] Speaker 5: but there is plenty of pressure in there. I think
[8:36] Speaker 5: the one the one thing you can say in today's
[8:38] Speaker 5: environment is the market's expectation of inflation is relatively well anchored,
[8:43] Speaker 5: and central bankers care greatly about that. The other thing,
[8:46] Speaker 5: just quickly is that CPI report yesterday. If you strip
[8:50] Speaker 5: out energy and you strip out shelter, which as we know,
[8:53] Speaker 5: is kind of its own beast, you know, inflation was
[8:56] Speaker 5: about two percent. So I don't think there's much evidence
[8:59] Speaker 5: of a wage wage pressure that would cause a wage
[9:02] Speaker 5: price spiral.
[9:04] Speaker 6: Average hourly earnings are down.
[9:05] Speaker 5: People are working, but they don't necessarily have the power
[9:09] Speaker 5: to negotiate big wage jumps like we might have seen
[9:12] Speaker 5: in twenty twenty one.
[9:13] Speaker 2: In twenty twenty two, so I mentioned the story on
[9:15] Speaker 2: IBM Tuesday, this stock was down twenty five percent. It's
[9:18] Speaker 2: kind of interesting. The company reported preliminary second quarter sales
[9:23] Speaker 2: well short of expectations. And what IBM is talking about
[9:27] Speaker 2: is customers moving away from products that IBM is associated with,
[9:32] Speaker 2: mainframe computers, software and putting more spending in the areas
[9:37] Speaker 2: of chips and servers. And I wonder if you feel
[9:40] Speaker 2: that this is a durable trend that we've got to
[9:43] Speaker 2: be concerned about, or whether this is just kind of
[9:46] Speaker 2: a momentary thing that will correct.
[9:50] Speaker 5: I think it's you know, durable is hard because this
[9:52] Speaker 5: stuff is changing so quickly underneath our feet. But if
[9:55] Speaker 5: you look at any of the memory makers or the
[9:57] Speaker 5: chip names, I mean, they're talking about shortages at least
[10:02] Speaker 5: out through twenty twenty eight. And so if you're a
[10:04] Speaker 5: big hyperscaler or you're one of these major buyers, you
[10:09] Speaker 5: do have to allocate capital a lot more. I don't know,
[10:13] Speaker 5: you have to tighten the belt a little bit. And
[10:15] Speaker 5: so if you're pushing more towards chips and infrastructure, you
[10:20] Speaker 5: have less definitionally to spend on software products, You have
[10:24] Speaker 5: less definitionally to spend on buybacks, You might have less
[10:29] Speaker 5: to spend on labor, and so, you know, I do
[10:33] Speaker 5: expect that at some point the big hyperscalers are going
[10:35] Speaker 5: to come out and talk about CAPEX discipline and slowing spending.
[10:39] Speaker 5: And I think that's probably a risk off moment for
[10:41] Speaker 5: the market, but I think it helps with the durability
[10:45] Speaker 5: of the bull market overall. So yeah, I think this
[10:49] Speaker 5: is a trend that's that's going to last. And I
[10:52] Speaker 5: think that every quarter we get CAPEX numbers raised higher
[10:55] Speaker 5: and higher, and more of that goes to memory and
[10:57] Speaker 5: more of that goes to chips. They are going to
[10:59] Speaker 5: be tough decisions to be made, and enterprise software might
[11:04] Speaker 5: be first in line, especially if there are cheaper alternatives
[11:07] Speaker 5: in today's market, which is the whole fear you know,
[11:10] Speaker 5: with AI and Anthropicic and Claude code and the reason
[11:14] Speaker 5: for the sell off that started last year.
[11:16] Speaker 2: That's right, Ross, good stuff, Thank you so very much,
[11:18] Speaker 2: Ross Mayfield. There he has investment strategist at Baird. Joining
[11:22] Speaker 2: from Louisville, Kentucky here on the Daybreak Asia podcast, Welcome
[11:32] Speaker 2: back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast, time deg Krisner. We
[11:35] Speaker 2: move next to US trade policy, including the Section three
[11:39] Speaker 2: zero one investigation on Brazil, the trade surplus with Switzerland,
[11:44] Speaker 2: and whether China is complying with its pact with the US.
[11:47] Speaker 2: We heard from US Trade Rep Jamison Greer from the
[11:50] Speaker 2: Aspen Security Forum. That's where he spoke with Bloomberg's David Gura.
[11:55] Speaker 7: I think there are a lot of folks wondering about Brazil,
[11:57] Speaker 7: in particular, seen as this test case for the Section
[11:59] Speaker 7: three oh one tariffs statutory deadline is today. Anything that
[12:03] Speaker 7: you can say about the process and where it stands
[12:04] Speaker 7: and what we can expect it's today.
[12:06] Speaker 1: So our Section three oh one investigations, they are legal investigations.
[12:10] Speaker 1: We have two sets of hearings, we do two sets
[12:13] Speaker 1: of public comments, and we're focused on unfair trading practices
[12:17] Speaker 1: by Brazil.
[12:17] Speaker 8: So we have to have a legal basis to do this.
[12:19] Speaker 1: And there are all kinds of things that Brazil has
[12:21] Speaker 1: been doing. They've been censoring our digital tech companies, they've
[12:27] Speaker 1: been restricting our access for ethanol to their market. They've
[12:31] Speaker 1: been actually engaging in illegal deforestation in the Amazon, which
[12:35] Speaker 1: gives them a leg up on all the ag where
[12:36] Speaker 1: they displace our ag exports to third countries. So there
[12:39] Speaker 1: are a lot of things like this that have been
[12:40] Speaker 1: problem for a long time with Brazil. So we've been
[12:42] Speaker 1: investigating this. Today we'll announce our final action. I had
[12:46] Speaker 1: a conversation a video conversation with my Counterpartnerzil last night,
[12:50] Speaker 1: very cordial. We've had intensive negotiations with them. I think
[12:53] Speaker 1: there's still a lot of gaps between us, so we
[12:55] Speaker 1: probably have to have some kind of action, but then
[12:57] Speaker 1: continued discussions.
[12:58] Speaker 7: I think expectation five percent in line with what you're
[13:01] Speaker 7: thinking in terms of the range.
[13:02] Speaker 1: Well, this is what was proposed by my office at
[13:06] Speaker 1: the presence direction, so this is probably what we're looking at. Again,
[13:12] Speaker 1: I don't want to get ahead of the president. He's
[13:15] Speaker 1: signing something today. I just got off the phone with
[13:17] Speaker 1: him and so we'll have more details to come. But
[13:20] Speaker 1: again I just want to emphasize this is these are
[13:22] Speaker 1: unfair trading practices that Brazil has had in place against
[13:25] Speaker 1: American exporters and workers for many years. The President is
[13:28] Speaker 1: trying to resolve these and we're doing it by negotiation.
[13:32] Speaker 8: Where we need to use.
[13:32] Speaker 1: Leverage of tariffs, that's what we're allowed to do with
[13:34] Speaker 1: Section three oh one. We'll do that where it's necessary.
[13:37] Speaker 8: Ask you've got Vietnam as well.
[13:38] Speaker 7: I understand representatives of Vietnam have been in Washington meeting
[13:40] Speaker 7: with your staff. Any update that you can give us
[13:42] Speaker 7: on the status of those negotiations.
[13:45] Speaker 1: Yes, So we have Vietnamese officials in Washington this week
[13:49] Speaker 1: negotiating with all of the trade deals we've done over
[13:51] Speaker 1: the past year and a half, all of them have
[13:54] Speaker 1: had some core issues. Obviously tariffs. We want other countries
[13:57] Speaker 1: to take down their tariffs, non tariff barriers where they
[13:59] Speaker 1: were strits exports of goods and services. Also things like
[14:03] Speaker 1: economic security where if we're going to be shipping them
[14:05] Speaker 1: some of our high tech equipment, they need to align
[14:08] Speaker 1: with us on export controls and other things. So this
[14:10] Speaker 1: is something we expect from the Vietnamese. And then there
[14:12] Speaker 1: are things like just basic standards of intellectual property and
[14:16] Speaker 1: other things. The type of things that the rules that
[14:19] Speaker 1: our companies abide by we want them to do so
[14:21] Speaker 1: as well. So I have a separate investigation with Vietnam
[14:24] Speaker 1: involving electrical property because they've been a bad actor in
[14:26] Speaker 1: this space. So these are the types of things intellectual property,
[14:30] Speaker 1: economic security, where we still have open areas of discussion.
[14:33] Speaker 7: Switzerland's top trade diplomat told Bloomberg there's a good chance
[14:36] Speaker 7: they'll get to a fifteen percent deal, something stable. Can
[14:39] Speaker 7: you confirm that negotiations with Switzerland are going well?
[14:41] Speaker 8: Well, I know that that's what they want.
[14:43] Speaker 1: I know that is the substance of a framework agreement
[14:47] Speaker 1: we agreed to a few months ago.
[14:49] Speaker 8: One interesting thing with Switzerland.
[14:50] Speaker 1: We've been very concerned with our trade deaths with Switzerland,
[14:53] Speaker 1: but over the past six to seven months, the United
[14:55] Speaker 1: States is now ensurplused with Switzerland in goods. So that's
[14:58] Speaker 1: a really positive development. The Swiss are investing here in America.
[15:02] Speaker 1: In fact, this week I'm going to visit a plant
[15:04] Speaker 1: in Utah where they are producing railway equipment. It's a
[15:08] Speaker 1: Swiss company. They're coming here that bringing their apprenticeship program.
[15:11] Speaker 8: So the Swiss are.
[15:12] Speaker 1: Doing a lot of the things they need to do
[15:13] Speaker 1: to get right with the US. Negotiations are still ongoing,
[15:16] Speaker 1: so I can't guarantee anything, but there's positive direction there.
[15:19] Speaker 7: Ask you about the sanctions bill newly elevated after the
[15:22] Speaker 7: passive Senator Lindsey Graham. Senator Richard Blumenthal said, you've been
[15:25] Speaker 7: involved in conversations about that. Is it in a place
[15:27] Speaker 7: now that the White House that you and the White
[15:29] Speaker 7: House are happy with?
[15:30] Speaker 1: So there are a lot of elements to this bill.
[15:32] Speaker 1: There's a teriff element, there's a sanctions element, all of
[15:35] Speaker 1: which are designed to give the President discretion to deploy
[15:40] Speaker 1: pressure on Russia and those who are supporting Russia. So
[15:44] Speaker 1: we've worked very constructively with the Senate on this. There
[15:46] Speaker 1: are a lot of good things to be said about it.
[15:47] Speaker 1: I just spoke with the President about it as well,
[15:50] Speaker 1: so I think there's an openness there. I think we'll
[15:52] Speaker 1: see within the next couple of days final views from
[15:55] Speaker 1: the President on whether he wants to be supportive. I
[15:58] Speaker 1: think that we have it in a pretty good I
[16:01] Speaker 1: think it's meaningful that this is something that Senator Graham
[16:03] Speaker 1: and I and Senator Blumenthal and others were working on
[16:06] Speaker 1: up until his last days, and that's meaningful as well.
[16:09] Speaker 7: It would give the present the latitude to impose terarif
[16:11] Speaker 7: up to one hundred percent, as I understand it, on
[16:14] Speaker 7: the largest importers of Russian oil. Any indication from him,
[16:17] Speaker 7: if he's prepared to do that, should this be pasted well?
[16:19] Speaker 1: I mean, I think you know, when I talk to
[16:22] Speaker 1: the President about this kind of issue, he wants to
[16:25] Speaker 1: be careful about the way he deploys this kind of leverage.
[16:28] Speaker 1: Geopolitics are very fragile, and this is something whether it's
[16:33] Speaker 1: a terrif action or sanctions action or anything, it's something
[16:36] Speaker 1: that the President thinks about very carefully. He certainly talks
[16:38] Speaker 1: to me, He talks to Secretary Best and Secretary Rubio,
[16:40] Speaker 1: Secretary Londik, he.
[16:41] Speaker 8: Talks to everybody.
[16:42] Speaker 1: He talks to people outside the government wants to He
[16:44] Speaker 1: wants to hit the right spot of putting pressure on
[16:48] Speaker 1: countries and putting pressure on Russia without creating more conflict
[16:52] Speaker 1: or reducing the likelihood of a peace deal.
[16:55] Speaker 7: The Section one twenty two tariffs set to expire in
[16:57] Speaker 7: just a couple of days, really few days from now
[16:59] Speaker 7: July twenty twenty fourth, all but certain that the three
[17:02] Speaker 7: one tariffs wuld effect after that. Are we looking at
[17:04] Speaker 7: perhaps a lapse kind of in coverage.
[17:06] Speaker 1: I mean, the reality is the Section three oh one
[17:08] Speaker 1: investigations I'm doing where we've proposed some tariffs, they're on
[17:12] Speaker 1: their own track. We're moving quickly, deliberately because we want
[17:16] Speaker 1: to resolve the unfair trading practices that we're targeting with
[17:19] Speaker 1: these investigations. So we're going to do them as soon
[17:21] Speaker 1: as we can to get at these practices, you know,
[17:24] Speaker 1: whether they're you know, day before, a day of day after,
[17:27] Speaker 1: that's less important to us than making sure we're addressing
[17:29] Speaker 1: these unfair trading practices and getting the leverage in place
[17:32] Speaker 1: we need to resolve them.
[17:32] Speaker 7: Do you have a timetable for one, you're going to
[17:34] Speaker 7: bring that report to the President when you might see
[17:36] Speaker 7: them enacted.
[17:37] Speaker 1: Well, we have a couple, right, So we have a
[17:39] Speaker 1: Section three oh one on forced labor, targeting countries who
[17:42] Speaker 1: don't ban the import of forced labor goods. We do
[17:44] Speaker 1: in America, other countries don't. Some have a law, but
[17:47] Speaker 1: they don't necessarily enforce it. So we already have our
[17:49] Speaker 1: report out on that and so we can take action
[17:52] Speaker 1: I think fairly quickly on that within the next few weeks.
[17:55] Speaker 1: We have another investigations targeting a more compact group of
[17:58] Speaker 1: countries on structural success capacity. These are countries who have
[18:01] Speaker 1: a typically have a big trade death sit with the world,
[18:04] Speaker 1: or a big sorry, big trade surplus with the world,
[18:07] Speaker 1: or a big trade surplus with US, or even if
[18:10] Speaker 1: they don't, they may have practices that generate factories or
[18:14] Speaker 1: production that are totally out of whack with global demand.
[18:17] Speaker 1: So this is this is a quite intense project. I
[18:20] Speaker 1: have dozens and dozens of attorneys and policy makers working
[18:24] Speaker 1: on this to really examine all of these practices. So
[18:28] Speaker 1: it takes a little longer time than doing this forced
[18:31] Speaker 1: labor one, which is a little bit of a binary
[18:33] Speaker 1: where you're looking at what do they have in place
[18:35] Speaker 1: and are they enforcing it?
[18:36] Speaker 8: This is more complex.
[18:37] Speaker 7: Does that explain the delay entirely or how long it's
[18:39] Speaker 7: taking or there's been reports that maybe China, that China
[18:42] Speaker 7: issue is complicating it more than it is with the others.
[18:44] Speaker 1: No, No, I don't think that's the case at all, right,
[18:47] Speaker 1: I mean China is included in this structural excess capacity
[18:50] Speaker 1: section three oh one. The reality is it's a more
[18:52] Speaker 1: complex investigation and we have to make sure that we
[18:56] Speaker 1: are hitting our milestones. You know, we've received a lot
[18:59] Speaker 1: of comments from the public. We have to handalyze those,
[19:01] Speaker 1: we have to incorporate them into any responsive action we
[19:04] Speaker 1: might take. So we're trying to make sure that we're
[19:07] Speaker 1: actually living up to the letter of the law and
[19:10] Speaker 1: the spirit of the law. We want to make sure
[19:11] Speaker 1: that we're targeting these these unfair trading practices that have
[19:15] Speaker 1: led to frankly offshoring in the US and an inability
[19:20] Speaker 1: to build new factories at times when you have other
[19:22] Speaker 1: countries that are building factories or they're depressing demand in
[19:27] Speaker 1: their own country. This is not how market economics are
[19:30] Speaker 1: supposed to work, and it creates a situation where there's
[19:33] Speaker 1: not enough incentive to build a new factory in America
[19:35] Speaker 1: or to employ American workers because we have overcapacity elsewhere.
[19:39] Speaker 1: So we want to make sure that that capacity is restrained, restricted,
[19:43] Speaker 1: or that we mitigate it somehow in our own economy
[19:45] Speaker 1: so we can have market incentives to build here and
[19:48] Speaker 1: to make here.
[19:49] Speaker 7: I want to ask you about rare earths, and I
[19:50] Speaker 7: wonder how you would assess China's performance when it comes
[19:52] Speaker 7: to rare earths. And as we get close through October,
[19:55] Speaker 7: do you anticipate that agreement will be renewed in due.
[19:57] Speaker 1: Course, so China's compliance with the rare earth elements of
[20:02] Speaker 1: our agreements. It's not perfect. I think everyone knows that.
[20:06] Speaker 1: You can read that in the paper. That being said,
[20:09] Speaker 1: we are getting a flow of rare earth. We don't
[20:11] Speaker 1: have factory shutting down because they don't have it. But again,
[20:13] Speaker 1: we really want to be in a position where we
[20:15] Speaker 1: were in twenty twenty four and twenty twenty three in
[20:19] Speaker 1: President Trump's first term, where we had a regular flow
[20:22] Speaker 1: of rare earth's. We also know that the Chinese they
[20:25] Speaker 1: use rare earth for economic coercion. They did it in
[20:27] Speaker 1: twenty ten and twenty eleven, they're doing it now, So
[20:29] Speaker 1: it's not necessarily surprising.
[20:32] Speaker 8: But we're continuing, you know, to have some flow.
[20:34] Speaker 1: And where we have gaps, where we have problems the
[20:37] Speaker 1: sector of the Treasury and I you know, we work
[20:39] Speaker 1: with our counterpart in China to try to loosen that
[20:41] Speaker 1: flow up. Sometimes we're more successful than others. One important
[20:45] Speaker 1: thing is we're moving forward in the US on rare
[20:47] Speaker 1: earth production. One of the things I'm doing on my
[20:49] Speaker 1: trip out west here, I'm going to Utah to visit
[20:52] Speaker 1: facility where we've already they've discovered rare earth in the
[20:55] Speaker 1: Utah Desert, and they're refining them and further manufacturing them
[20:59] Speaker 1: metaphasbility in Utah, which is a great development for US
[21:03] Speaker 1: national and economic security.
[21:05] Speaker 8: You've got rare earths.
[21:06] Speaker 7: There's huge pharmaceutical dependence as well, and I wonder how
[21:08] Speaker 7: you're thinking about that, the way that you can kind
[21:10] Speaker 7: of curb our reliance on Chinese pharmaceuticals and ingredients.
[21:14] Speaker 8: We think about this a lot.
[21:16] Speaker 1: This is really critical because at the end of the day,
[21:19] Speaker 1: if somehow you lose access to Chinese inputs, it can
[21:22] Speaker 1: be a huge challenge for our own manufacturing base. And
[21:25] Speaker 1: some people will say, well, what about India, Fine, but
[21:28] Speaker 1: a lot of the inputs that India uses also come
[21:31] Speaker 1: from China. One great thing that we're seeing as we
[21:35] Speaker 1: try to encourage companies to reshore is we actually have
[21:38] Speaker 1: commitments from seventeen pharmaceutical companies, most the largest and the
[21:44] Speaker 1: most major pharmaceutical companies, not only to lower prices of
[21:49] Speaker 1: medication here in the US. Pharmaceutical prices have gone down
[21:51] Speaker 1: by two point five percent, but they've also agreed to
[21:54] Speaker 1: reshore here and to manufacture here. And so we have
[21:57] Speaker 1: companies like Eli, Lilly and No Vardes and other actually
[22:00] Speaker 1: pouring concrete and superstructures going up in new facilities in
[22:04] Speaker 1: North Carolina and Indiana and southern California. So this actually,
[22:07] Speaker 1: for me, has been a really bright spot of our
[22:09] Speaker 1: efforts to reshort critical production in America.
[22:12] Speaker 7: In the Trade REPS glossary, transhipments is a word. Yes,
[22:16] Speaker 7: I'm wondering how you are thinking about monitoring and blocking
[22:19] Speaker 7: transhipment when it comes to China.
[22:20] Speaker 1: So it is a gloss it is a word in
[22:22] Speaker 1: our glossary, but it can mean different things. Right, There's
[22:24] Speaker 1: kind of like your pure illegal transhipment where something's made
[22:28] Speaker 1: in China, they send it to Vietnam and they put
[22:31] Speaker 1: a made in Vietnam sticker and send it over. It's
[22:32] Speaker 1: just illegal, right, and that's on Customs and Border Protection
[22:35] Speaker 1: to enforce that right. So do investigations to identify areas
[22:39] Speaker 1: of fraud and go after it.
[22:41] Speaker 8: And we and we're doing that.
[22:43] Speaker 1: A day or two ago we had a big announcement
[22:45] Speaker 1: with DOJ teaming up with CPP. They've already found a
[22:48] Speaker 1: billion dollars in customs fraud and some of that is transhipment.
[22:50] Speaker 1: And then you have another issue where you have you know,
[22:53] Speaker 1: country it's often Asian inputs, China, Vietnam. They go to
[22:57] Speaker 1: a third country, maybe Mexico, and they do just an
[23:00] Speaker 1: enough work where they can legally say this is actually
[23:02] Speaker 1: from Mexico, so maybe we should get a better terrorfry
[23:05] Speaker 1: than if it were from China. That's an issue, and
[23:07] Speaker 1: that's a problem with Mexico right now, for example, and
[23:10] Speaker 1: some of our discussions we're talking about rules of origin
[23:13] Speaker 1: and saying, if you want to get a better deal
[23:15] Speaker 1: bringing something in from Mexico or name your country, you
[23:18] Speaker 1: have to make sure it's actually has US content. You
[23:21] Speaker 1: have to make sure it actually has you know, Mexican
[23:23] Speaker 1: content or whatever it is, and you have to have
[23:25] Speaker 1: that as high as possible to protect against this other
[23:28] Speaker 1: type of transhipment, which is a little more difficult to detect.
[23:31] Speaker 7: Last question here, and you're gonna have to tell me
[23:33] Speaker 7: how you tre us your schedule and look at all
[23:34] Speaker 7: of these deadlines. But yeah, you know, there's a long
[23:36] Speaker 7: way to go until this meeting in September when the
[23:38] Speaker 7: Chinese president comes to the United States. But let me
[23:40] Speaker 7: ask you lastly sort of how you're thinking about that.
[23:42] Speaker 7: You were so integral to the conversations that took place
[23:44] Speaker 7: in Beijing. What are you expecting deliverables wise to come
[23:47] Speaker 7: out of that meeting in Washington in a couple months.
[23:49] Speaker 1: Well, the number one deliverable we always have between President
[23:52] Speaker 1: Trump and President she is to continue the stability of
[23:55] Speaker 1: the relationship.
[23:57] Speaker 8: Both of these leaders are very.
[23:58] Speaker 1: Committed to having a strong and solid personal relationship. Now
[24:02] Speaker 1: that doesn't mean we don't have issues in the broader relationship.
[24:06] Speaker 1: Obviously we do. China is a big challenge for the
[24:08] Speaker 1: US in a lot of ways, but we want to
[24:10] Speaker 1: make sure we're delivering stability. There's never been a situation
[24:13] Speaker 1: where the US side or even the Chinese side, has
[24:16] Speaker 1: gone out and said everyone should expect a comprehensive.
[24:18] Speaker 8: Agreement that resolves all issues.
[24:20] Speaker 4: Like.
[24:20] Speaker 1: No one's ever promised that, So that's not what we expect.
[24:23] Speaker 1: We will have an opportunity to take stock of Chinese
[24:26] Speaker 1: commitments with respect to purchases of soybeans and other agricultural products.
[24:30] Speaker 1: Will take stock on the rare of issues we decided,
[24:32] Speaker 1: so I think it'll be a moment for stock taking,
[24:35] Speaker 1: confirming the relationship, making sure that China is complying with
[24:39] Speaker 1: what it's agreed to do. That's really what we're looking
[24:42] Speaker 1: forward to in this meeting.
[24:43] Speaker 2: That is US Trade Rep. Jamison Greer at the Aspen
[24:46] Speaker 2: Security Forum speaking with Bloomberg's David Gura, bringing you their
[24:50] Speaker 2: conversation here on the Daybreak Asia Podcast. Thanks for listening
[24:55] Speaker 2: to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast.
[25:00] Speaker 2: Each weekday, we look at the story shaping markets, finance,
[25:03] Speaker 2: and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You can find us
[25:06] Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere
[25:10] Speaker 2: else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for insight on
[25:14] Speaker 2: the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia.
[25:18] Speaker 2: I'm Doug Prisner, and this is Bloomberg

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