# Trump: US Will Leave Iran in 2-3 Weeks, Stocks Gain on Iran Hopes

An episode of [Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1663863437), 1 Apr 2026, 21 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/58e85be7-dbb5-4043-afed-af80014dc0b3/987953e0-ab8c-407c-b466-b41f000967b7/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=27143354-63aa-4ac5-965d-af80014dc0d3

President Donald Trump said he foresaw the US ending the war on Iran within two to three weeks, suggesting the US had largely accomplished its military goals and would leave it to other nations to resolve issues with the Strait of Hormuz. Wall Street rallied today on optimism that the war that has jolted global markets and disrupted energy supplies may be nearing a conclusion. We spoke to Ross Mayfield, Investment Strategist for Baird Private Wealth Management. And for more on President Trump's latest comments on war in Iran, we heard from Jessica Genauer, Academic Director of the Public Policy Institute at the University of New South Wales. She spoke to Bloomberg's Haidi Stroud-Watts and Shery Ahn. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
[0:10] Speaker 2: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Prisner. There
[0:13] Speaker 2: was a dramatic recovery in the US equity market on
[0:16] Speaker 2: the final day of the first quarter, driven by speculation
[0:20] Speaker 2: that both the US and Iran might be looking for
[0:22] Speaker 2: a way out of the war. Late Monday, the Wall
[0:25] Speaker 2: Street Journal reported President Trump would be willing to exit
[0:28] Speaker 2: the conflict even with the straight of hormones largely closed. Well.
[0:32] Speaker 2: Then on Tuesday, after the bell, Trump said he foresees
[0:35] Speaker 2: the US ending the war in two to three weeks.
[0:39] Speaker 2: He also said securing the strait of hormones is not
[0:41] Speaker 2: for US, and that that responsibility will rest with countries
[0:45] Speaker 2: that rely on it now. Earlier in the day, Iran
[0:48] Speaker 2: state media reported President Mussud Prjeskin said the Islamic Republic
[0:53] Speaker 2: has the necessary will to end the war, but only
[0:56] Speaker 2: with guarantees to prevent recurrence of aggression. The conflict began
[1:01] Speaker 2: at the end of February. US crude oil is up
[1:04] Speaker 2: nearly fifty percent. For a closer look at the price action,
[1:08] Speaker 2: I'm joined by Ross Mayfield. He is an investment strategist
[1:11] Speaker 2: at Baird Ross. Thank you for being with us. In
[1:14] Speaker 2: your note, you call this a tricky market to navigate.
[1:18] Speaker 2: I think that's an understatement. Give me your sense of
[1:21] Speaker 2: what we're seeing right now.
[1:23] Speaker 3: Yeah, well, obviously, the way you summed it up, I
[1:26] Speaker 3: think puts the point to it, which is, we don't
[1:29] Speaker 3: have a lot of certainty here. We don't know what
[1:32] Speaker 3: the world is going to look like. But the market
[1:33] Speaker 3: was obviously happy with the direction, right. I think directionality
[1:38] Speaker 3: is the most important thing here, which is shifting from
[1:41] Speaker 3: escalation to uncertainty to at least both sides. I mean
[1:46] Speaker 3: to aim for de escalation, and that was clearly all
[1:48] Speaker 3: the market needed to have one of the best days
[1:51] Speaker 3: in a long time today. You know, a lot of
[1:53] Speaker 3: the finer points I think still leave a lot to
[1:56] Speaker 3: be desired. I wouldn't bet on this thing being over
[2:00] Speaker 3: in terms of the conflict and the market volatility associated
[2:02] Speaker 3: with it. Obviously, oil still very elevated, and you know
[2:06] Speaker 3: to the comment about securing the straight offor moves for
[2:09] Speaker 3: the countries that use it. You know, obviously Americans are
[2:12] Speaker 3: paying higher gas prices because oil is set on a
[2:17] Speaker 3: global scale. Those prices so I think there's a lot
[2:19] Speaker 3: to be hammered out, but directionally we're headed, you know,
[2:22] Speaker 3: to the right place.
[2:23] Speaker 2: So there seems to be a little bit of debate
[2:24] Speaker 2: here on the impact of higher oil. Yes, inflation could
[2:28] Speaker 2: be a problem. The FED doesn't seem to be so
[2:31] Speaker 2: much concerned by it right now, given the fact that
[2:33] Speaker 2: this is essentially a shock. But there seems to be
[2:36] Speaker 2: a debate now that higher oil could ultimately lead to
[2:40] Speaker 2: a much weaker economic growth. Where do you come down
[2:42] Speaker 2: in that debate?
[2:44] Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think the first thing is I'm
[2:47] Speaker 3: of the opinion that if the FED shifts rate hikes
[2:50] Speaker 3: here because of an oil shock, that would represent a
[2:53] Speaker 3: policy mistake. The cure for high oil prices is high
[2:57] Speaker 3: oil prices, you can't have energy into perpetuity. Eventually you
[3:02] Speaker 3: get demand destruction, you get economic pullback and potentially recessions.
[3:06] Speaker 3: So I think the FED is fine to be on
[3:08] Speaker 3: pause right now given the uncertainty. But I do think
[3:11] Speaker 3: that the major risk is not inflation, although the next
[3:16] Speaker 3: couple of CPI prints will probably be pretty ugly. I
[3:19] Speaker 3: think the real risk is, you know, you get this
[3:22] Speaker 3: drag on growth and then we're looking out at a
[3:25] Speaker 3: potential contraction of the economy in the back half of
[3:28] Speaker 3: the year. So I am of the opinion that it's
[3:32] Speaker 3: a bigger concern on the growth front than the inflation front,
[3:36] Speaker 3: and hopefully the FED feels the same way, and you know,
[3:38] Speaker 3: resist the urge to get hawkish when you know we
[3:42] Speaker 3: potentially have a three and a half four percent CPI
[3:45] Speaker 3: and PC over the next couple of months.
[3:47] Speaker 2: The other issue that we haven't heard much about lately,
[3:50] Speaker 2: given the fact that the war has been so dominant
[3:52] Speaker 2: in my market psychology, private credit risk. Today, Warren Buffett
[3:57] Speaker 2: was speaking to CNBC and he said that he is
[4:00] Speaker 2: seeing signs of fragility emerging in the banking system, which
[4:04] Speaker 2: has obviously become a little bit more connected to non
[4:07] Speaker 2: bank players. Now, you and I both know there have
[4:10] Speaker 2: been a series of recent blow ups in the credit
[4:13] Speaker 2: markets and that may have created a little bit of
[4:15] Speaker 2: fear about what we're seeing on bank balance sheets. Buffett
[4:19] Speaker 2: told CNBC the troubles from one can spread to another,
[4:24] Speaker 2: and I'm wondering if this is very much a concern
[4:26] Speaker 2: for you.
[4:28] Speaker 3: Yeah, it's absolutely a concern. I mean to the extent
[4:30] Speaker 3: that these markets are pretty opaque, that we're relying on
[4:35] Speaker 3: private marks that might not be all that accurate. It's
[4:38] Speaker 3: a concern now. I do think that, you know, we're
[4:41] Speaker 3: always kind of the general fighting the last war, right,
[4:44] Speaker 3: so anyone who's been around for long enough immediately goes
[4:48] Speaker 3: to two thousand and eight and what extent this kind
[4:51] Speaker 3: of mirrors that crisis. I think the private credit market,
[4:55] Speaker 3: as big as it's gotten, is still meaningfully smaller than
[4:58] Speaker 3: mortgage and mortgage back secure were in two thousand and
[5:01] Speaker 3: seven or so. And I also think that, you know,
[5:05] Speaker 3: as much as the problems in private credit and some
[5:08] Speaker 3: of the headlines about gating funds are pr issues for
[5:12] Speaker 3: the firms, I actually think it. You know, it does
[5:14] Speaker 3: a lot in preventing the kind of run on a
[5:16] Speaker 3: bank that could really cause this to spiral out of control,
[5:20] Speaker 3: in the sense that you know that people can't get
[5:21] Speaker 3: money out, can't induce the run on the bank. There's
[5:25] Speaker 3: a little bit more stability and a little bit more
[5:27] Speaker 3: time for these companies to get their marks right secure,
[5:31] Speaker 3: you know, other forms of lending if they need it,
[5:33] Speaker 3: and kind of settle this in a reasonable fashion. But yeah,
[5:36] Speaker 3: I mean, if you look at the bank stocks, the
[5:37] Speaker 3: financials such high flyers last year and have really taking
[5:40] Speaker 3: it on the chin I think to believe in whatever
[5:44] Speaker 3: the next rally looks like, that there would be, you know,
[5:46] Speaker 3: a couple more years to this bull market. At a minimum,
[5:49] Speaker 3: you do want to see participation from the banks, from
[5:52] Speaker 3: the money center banks, from the regionals, and you want
[5:55] Speaker 3: to see credit growth as well, which is hard in
[5:57] Speaker 3: an environment like this.
[5:58] Speaker 2: So where are you finding opportun unity these days?
[6:02] Speaker 3: You know, in a market like this, I think you
[6:04] Speaker 3: want to look for names or sectors and uptrends that
[6:09] Speaker 3: have just been oversold, and you know, we look at
[6:11] Speaker 3: something like industrials. I think right now a lot of
[6:15] Speaker 3: the tech names are kind of falling under that umbrella.
[6:19] Speaker 3: So I still think there's a lot of growth to
[6:21] Speaker 3: be had in the market. Earnings estimates have been incredibly
[6:24] Speaker 3: resilient and in many cases are accelerating here despite all
[6:29] Speaker 3: the headwinds abroad. So I think there's plenty of value
[6:32] Speaker 3: in this market right now. I like industrials. I think
[6:36] Speaker 3: kind of phishing in software, presuming you have the patience
[6:40] Speaker 3: to kind of wait it out, could be really beneficial
[6:43] Speaker 3: or really lucrative over the long term. So oversold but
[6:47] Speaker 3: in up trends, and there's still plenty of that in
[6:49] Speaker 3: this market.
[6:49] Speaker 2: I'm wondering about your feelings in regard to artificial intelligence.
[6:54] Speaker 2: We've got word today that open ai was able to
[6:56] Speaker 2: raise one hundred and twenty two billion in its latest
[7:00] Speaker 2: un around. The company is still considering an I p
[7:02] Speaker 2: O later in the year, and also were today that
[7:05] Speaker 2: Nvidia is taking a two billion dollar steak in Marvell technology.
[7:09] Speaker 2: How do you feel about the AI trade?
[7:12] Speaker 3: I think that it's clear to me that the demand
[7:15] Speaker 3: for chips for AI for compute is still completely fine.
[7:19] Speaker 3: I mean, it's obviously been somewhat you know, resilient in
[7:25] Speaker 3: the face of whatever the economic backdrop looks like over
[7:28] Speaker 3: the last three to four years.
[7:31] Speaker 4: So I think the.
[7:32] Speaker 3: Demand is there. You know, we have obviously seen great results,
[7:36] Speaker 3: particularly from the chip makers. On the software front. I
[7:40] Speaker 3: think there have been plenty of babies thrown out with
[7:42] Speaker 3: the bathwater. As impressive as these tools are, I haven't
[7:47] Speaker 3: you know, had an inkling that they're going to replace
[7:50] Speaker 3: white collar jobs, or that big companies are going to
[7:52] Speaker 3: rip out their tech stack and replace it, you know,
[7:55] Speaker 3: with AI coded apps. So I think, you know, presuming
[7:59] Speaker 3: again you have the patients to write out what are
[8:01] Speaker 3: some pretty broken charts and some pretty bad trends in
[8:04] Speaker 3: the software space. I think there's plenty of good value
[8:06] Speaker 3: there and I think the AI theme is pretty undented
[8:10] Speaker 3: by this whole thing. I don't think it's a bubble,
[8:13] Speaker 3: but there's still clearly plenty of demand and you know,
[8:17] Speaker 3: as being fulfilled as best we can.
[8:19] Speaker 2: So before I let you go, Ross, I have to
[8:21] Speaker 2: ask about the employment report, which is due Friday, and
[8:24] Speaker 2: we will have special coverage on the Bloomberg platforms even
[8:27] Speaker 2: though the market will be on holiday in the States. Today,
[8:32] Speaker 2: we had indications of a little bit of softening demand
[8:35] Speaker 2: for labor, at least in the month of February, with
[8:38] Speaker 2: job openings down and to slow down in hiring. How
[8:41] Speaker 2: do you view the American labor market right now?
[8:45] Speaker 3: It's you know, it's kind of a cliche at this point,
[8:47] Speaker 3: but it's a low hiring, low firing environment right Obviously
[8:51] Speaker 3: there's not a lot of new hiring. But for every
[8:56] Speaker 3: headline we get, I think it was Oracle today with
[8:58] Speaker 3: some layoffs. You know, just we've gotten these headlines time
[9:03] Speaker 3: and again over the last year, and it's just not
[9:05] Speaker 3: showing up in the claims data. And that's kind of
[9:07] Speaker 3: my north star here is until I see a meaningful
[9:10] Speaker 3: and kind of sticky upticking claims. I'm not overly worried
[9:14] Speaker 3: about it. I think the labor market is not adding
[9:17] Speaker 3: jobs at a high pace, but I think that has
[9:19] Speaker 3: a lot to do with immigration reform, has a lot
[9:22] Speaker 3: to do with demographics in the US. Obviously, it's not
[9:25] Speaker 3: a perfect backdrop, but I think it's good enough to
[9:29] Speaker 3: keep the consumer spending. I think there's a healthy tail
[9:33] Speaker 3: end of stimulus on top of solid wage growth and
[9:36] Speaker 3: a low unemployment rate. So it's not the most robust
[9:40] Speaker 3: labor market, but I think it's plenty good enough to
[9:43] Speaker 3: keep the consumer part of the economy in decent shape.
[9:46] Speaker 3: We should get a I think we get a retail
[9:47] Speaker 3: sales report tomorrow that will hopefully confirm that trend. But
[9:53] Speaker 3: you know, in a perfect world, we'd see more hiring
[9:55] Speaker 3: as well, So hopefully we get a you know, we
[9:58] Speaker 3: can resume that cyclical upturn that we had evidence of
[10:03] Speaker 3: to start the year. There was good commentary about hiring
[10:06] Speaker 3: in the PMI reports that everybody was so excited about
[10:09] Speaker 3: if we can put the Iran conflict behind us. I
[10:12] Speaker 3: think there's still legs to that story.
[10:13] Speaker 2: All right, ross we'll leave it there. Thanks very much,
[10:15] Speaker 2: Ross Mayfield there he is investment strategist at Baird. Joining
[10:19] Speaker 2: us here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome back to
[10:29] Speaker 2: the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm deg Prisner And as I
[10:32] Speaker 2: mentioned earlier, President Trump said he sees the US ending
[10:35] Speaker 2: the war with Iran in about two to three weeks,
[10:38] Speaker 2: and he indicated it's possible Iran could still reach a
[10:41] Speaker 2: deal with the US during that time frame. However, Trump
[10:44] Speaker 2: said the agreement with Tehran was not necessary for the
[10:47] Speaker 2: war to end. And that's where we begin our conversation
[10:51] Speaker 2: with Jessica Ganauer. Jessica is an academic director of the
[10:55] Speaker 2: Public Policy Institute at the University of New South Wales.
[10:58] Speaker 2: She spoke with Bloomberg tea host sharing on and Heidi
[11:01] Speaker 2: Stroud Watts.
[11:02] Speaker 5: Is this sort of what's happening right now because the
[11:05] Speaker 5: US doesn't necessarily seem to be winning the war, the
[11:08] Speaker 5: President Trump doesn't seem to be wanting an agreement right
[11:11] Speaker 5: now in order to be ending the war. Is there
[11:15] Speaker 5: more of that sort of retreat that you're talking about.
[11:18] Speaker 4: Yeah, that's absolutely right.
[11:20] Speaker 6: So essentially President Trump is now at a crossroads where
[11:24] Speaker 6: he has one of two choices. He can either double
[11:27] Speaker 6: down now in the war and actually utilize the marines
[11:31] Speaker 6: who've been moving into the region and start to put
[11:34] Speaker 6: boots on the ground. So that might be trying to
[11:36] Speaker 6: take control of some of the small islands in the
[11:38] Speaker 6: Strait of Homors, it could be boots on the ground
[11:41] Speaker 6: on the Iranian mainland, even though that's likely to be
[11:44] Speaker 6: quite disastrous for.
[11:46] Speaker 4: The US in the medium term.
[11:50] Speaker 6: Or the second choice for President Trump right now is
[11:52] Speaker 6: that he could unilaterally withdraw, pressure Israel to also withdraw
[11:56] Speaker 6: and end their military operation, and try to claim this
[11:59] Speaker 6: as some kind of victory, even though the Iranian regime.
[12:02] Speaker 4: Would stay in place at this point in time.
[12:04] Speaker 6: And as long as the Iranian regime is in place,
[12:07] Speaker 6: they are still going to have ultimately control over the
[12:11] Speaker 6: Strait of Hormuors in that they can make it too
[12:13] Speaker 6: dangerous for ships to pass through if they threaten those
[12:17] Speaker 6: ships with attack. So yes, what we're starting to see
[12:21] Speaker 6: emerging now is that neither of those two options are
[12:24] Speaker 6: particularly good for President Trump.
[12:26] Speaker 4: At this stage.
[12:27] Speaker 6: And because the Iranian regime has managed to survive to
[12:31] Speaker 6: this point in time, despite the fact that a large
[12:34] Speaker 6: number of the leadership have been killed, the Iranian regime
[12:38] Speaker 6: can claim a kind of a victory by saying we
[12:42] Speaker 6: withstood this massive onslaught from the greatest military power globally
[12:47] Speaker 6: and we're still standing.
[12:51] Speaker 5: That's the whole point in especially what you're saying your
[12:55] Speaker 5: notes about insurgent tactics. Right, if you have a weak player,
[12:58] Speaker 5: you just need to survive long enough to apply political
[13:01] Speaker 5: military pressure on your opponent. And this would be the
[13:04] Speaker 5: Trump administration. So where do we go from here, and
[13:10] Speaker 5: what would Iran be able to call a victory itself,
[13:13] Speaker 5: and what could the US take away from here, because
[13:16] Speaker 5: it seems President Trump just wants an end to Iran's
[13:20] Speaker 5: nuclear capabilities at this point.
[13:22] Speaker 4: That's right.
[13:23] Speaker 6: So what's a sort of a paradox of asymmetric warfare
[13:26] Speaker 6: where we have a very strong military actor. So in
[13:30] Speaker 6: this case, the US fighting against a clearly much weaker
[13:34] Speaker 6: actor with far less military capability.
[13:37] Speaker 4: What we tend to find is that the stronger actor.
[13:39] Speaker 6: Will really overuse their military force and they will almost
[13:44] Speaker 6: use that as though it's the only dimension that matters.
[13:47] Speaker 6: So they will focus on trying to completely militarily eliminate
[13:52] Speaker 6: the military capability of the weaker actor. And that's basically
[13:55] Speaker 6: the playbook that the US is following. They're trying to
[13:58] Speaker 6: degrade Iran in terms of its military capability and its
[14:01] Speaker 6: ability to operate in terms of eliminating the security and
[14:06] Speaker 6: political leadership. But on the other hand, the weaker actor
[14:11] Speaker 6: doesn't need to focus on trying to eliminate the military
[14:14] Speaker 6: capability of the stronger actor, which is something they would
[14:17] Speaker 6: never be able to do anyway. They just need to
[14:20] Speaker 6: focus on creating enough political and economic disruption and pressure
[14:26] Speaker 6: on the stronger actor to essentially force a withdrawal. And
[14:30] Speaker 6: that's what we've seen Iran doing by blocking the Strait
[14:33] Speaker 6: of Hormuz and creating an energy crisis that's now gone
[14:37] Speaker 6: global and is being felt as far afield as you know,
[14:40] Speaker 6: Singapore and Australia, and by also attacking the Gulf countries,
[14:45] Speaker 6: which puts a lot of political.
[14:47] Speaker 4: Pressure as well on the US. So we're seeing that Iran.
[14:51] Speaker 6: Through using these kind of asymmetric tactics of focusing on
[14:54] Speaker 6: the political and economic dimensions, probably will manage to bring
[14:58] Speaker 6: enough pressure to bear on the US government because the
[15:01] Speaker 6: war is becoming increasingly unpopular within the US domestic context,
[15:05] Speaker 6: not that it was ever very populate in the first
[15:07] Speaker 6: place to actually try to force that withdrawal and then
[15:12] Speaker 6: try to claim that as a victory. So for the
[15:15] Speaker 6: Iranian regime, their key objective right now is purely to survive.
[15:19] Speaker 6: They're not really thinking beyond that at this point in time.
[15:22] Speaker 6: They'll start to think about rebuilding the regime if slash,
[15:26] Speaker 6: when the war actually ceases.
[15:29] Speaker 4: For the US, there.
[15:30] Speaker 6: Are a few different objectives, and it's not exactly clear
[15:33] Speaker 6: when President Trump is going to say, we've achieved our
[15:35] Speaker 6: objectives and we can now sort of successfully withdraw Trump
[15:39] Speaker 6: has started to try to claim that actually the Iranian
[15:42] Speaker 6: regime has sort of been degraded or collapsed, which clearly
[15:46] Speaker 6: has not exactly happened at this point in time.
[15:49] Speaker 4: And then there's the nuclear issue, So.
[15:51] Speaker 6: That's ensuring that Iran cannot develop or commits not to
[15:56] Speaker 6: develop a nuclear weapon now or at any time in
[15:59] Speaker 6: the future. And again it's very unclear where that sits.
[16:02] Speaker 6: So there might be some kind of negotiated deal around that.
[16:06] Speaker 4: But would we now.
[16:07] Speaker 6: See the Iranian regime as a credible actor after this war.
[16:11] Speaker 6: That sort of still very much remains to be seen.
[16:16] Speaker 1: I mean, in fact, he said overnight that he's not
[16:17] Speaker 1: even thinking about the removal of enriching uranium at this point, right,
[16:22] Speaker 1: So to your point of I guess shifting goldposts. I
[16:25] Speaker 1: do wonder, though, can Tyrone really claim this as a
[16:28] Speaker 1: victory because they've shown the world how much of a
[16:30] Speaker 1: chokehold and leverage they have with global energy supply.
[16:36] Speaker 6: Well, that's right, So certainly, I mean, coming out of this,
[16:39] Speaker 6: whenever this war does end, and mores inevitably do end,
[16:42] Speaker 6: even if they tend to take longer than typically, the
[16:46] Speaker 6: stronger actor thinks going into the war that when this ends,
[16:50] Speaker 6: both Tehran and Washington will be claiming a victory from this.
[16:56] Speaker 6: So certainly as long as the Iranian regime stays intact,
[17:00] Speaker 6: which again looks like that's going to be the case
[17:02] Speaker 6: at the moment. I mean, I think the regime has
[17:04] Speaker 6: been severely degraded, and we might see in a sort
[17:06] Speaker 6: of three to seven year timeline that actually there is
[17:10] Speaker 6: some type of more fundamental collapse or fracturing of the
[17:13] Speaker 6: Iranean regime, which is of course also deeply unpopular with
[17:17] Speaker 6: you know, a large proportion of the population within Iran.
[17:20] Speaker 6: But in the meantime, the fact that they're staying intact
[17:22] Speaker 6: means that they can always pull the kind of straight
[17:26] Speaker 6: of Humu's trump card, if you will, so as long
[17:29] Speaker 6: as the regime remains in place, whenever there is tension
[17:33] Speaker 6: with Israel, if Israel ever chooses to strike into Iran,
[17:37] Speaker 6: if there is you know, conflict that rises, tensions that
[17:41] Speaker 6: rise with the US, if they feel a threat from
[17:43] Speaker 6: the US, they will now always have the ability to say, Okay,
[17:47] Speaker 6: we are now going to block you know that shipping
[17:50] Speaker 6: through the Strait of Hormus, or they might even take
[17:52] Speaker 6: the approach that they want to say, going forward, we're
[17:55] Speaker 6: only going to let tankers go through the Strait of
[17:57] Speaker 6: Hormus that we feel a friendly to Iran or meet
[18:00] Speaker 6: certain conditions that Iran puts forward. So yes, this is
[18:04] Speaker 6: a massive leverage point, and the fact that they've chosen
[18:08] Speaker 6: to block the Strait of Horwords so quickly shows that
[18:10] Speaker 6: they really understand that and understand the powerful nature of
[18:14] Speaker 6: that for the Iranian regime going forward.
[18:17] Speaker 1: Does this walk continue with Israel? We haven't heard their
[18:21] Speaker 1: take on what this exit plant might look like, and
[18:24] Speaker 1: we know that this is a conflict that they've been
[18:26] Speaker 1: wanting for a number of years.
[18:29] Speaker 6: So interestingly, the US and Israel, whilst this is a
[18:32] Speaker 6: joint military operation. They both have slightly different objectives, So
[18:37] Speaker 6: I actually see you retreating from this war or sort
[18:40] Speaker 6: of a unilateral withdrawal. Is much more complicated for President
[18:43] Speaker 6: Trump at this stage because the world is really looking
[18:46] Speaker 6: on and associating the current global oil crisis and all
[18:51] Speaker 6: of the implications of that with President Trump's specific decisions
[18:56] Speaker 6: and actions visa v Iran. So I almost see Trump
[19:00] Speaker 6: in or the US in sort of a more difficult
[19:02] Speaker 6: position in terms of what they do now. Whereas for
[19:05] Speaker 6: Israel and the Israeli government, in many ways, they really
[19:09] Speaker 6: have achieved a lot of their objectives. So whilst they
[19:11] Speaker 6: might like to see the Iranian regime fall, ultimately Israel
[19:16] Speaker 6: is primarily concerned with degrading any kind of threat.
[19:21] Speaker 4: Towards Israel itself.
[19:22] Speaker 6: So as long as they see that the Iranian regime
[19:26] Speaker 6: has been degraded, their military capability has been severely damaged,
[19:31] Speaker 6: their ability to shoot missiles towards Israel has lessened. That's
[19:36] Speaker 6: kind of a victory for Israel in many ways. Or
[19:39] Speaker 6: they've achieved a large proportion of their objectives visa vi Iran.
[19:43] Speaker 6: And then of course we have Israel's ongoing boots on
[19:47] Speaker 6: the ground operation in Lebanon, which is sort of a
[19:49] Speaker 6: different point, and I think that that is probably likely
[19:52] Speaker 6: to continue for a while, whereas Visa vie Iran, I
[19:55] Speaker 6: could see a situation where if Trump decides to withdraw,
[19:58] Speaker 6: he would be able to bring.
[19:59] Speaker 4: Enough to bear on net Yahoo to inst the Israel
[20:02] Speaker 4: withdraws as well.
[20:04] Speaker 2: That's Jessica Genauer, Academic director of the Public Policy Institute
[20:08] Speaker 2: at the University of New South Wales, speaking with Bloomberg
[20:11] Speaker 2: TV host Sherry On and Heidi Stroud Watts bringing you
[20:14] Speaker 2: their conversation here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Thanks for
[20:19] Speaker 2: listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast.
[20:24] Speaker 2: Each weekday, we look at the story shaping markets, finance,
[20:27] Speaker 2: and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You can find us
[20:31] Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere
[20:35] Speaker 2: else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for insight on
[20:38] Speaker 2: the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia.
[20:42] Speaker 2: I'm Doug Prisoner and this is Bloomberg

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