# Oil Fluctuates After Report of IEA Reserve Release

An episode of [Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1663863437), 11 Mar 2026, 22 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/58e85be7-dbb5-4043-afed-af80014dc0b3/13f4ad80-369c-4032-a952-b40a001ee015/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=27143354-63aa-4ac5-965d-af80014dc0d3

Business and finance news from the Asia-Pacific. Volatility in oil prices continue to dominate the markets. The International Energy Agency proposed biggest-ever release of oil reserves the Wall Street Journal reported. Brent crude initially declined. then swung between gains and losses following WSJ report; stocks rose. Earlier in the day, the oil market was buffeted by confusion over whether the US Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed that was the case in a post on social media. Later, however, the post on X was deleted. Then in a briefing with reporters, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the US did not escort any oil tanker through the Strait. For more on what this means for the dollar, we spoke to David Finnerty, Bloomberg's FX and Rates Strategist. And for more analysis on the oil story, we heard from Vandana Hari, Vanda Insights Founder. She spoke to Bloomberg's Haidi Stroud-Watts and Avril Hong. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
[0:11] Speaker 2: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner. There
[0:14] Speaker 2: is no mistaking the fact that volatility in oil prices
[0:18] Speaker 2: has been dominating market psychology and headline risk is high.
[0:22] Speaker 2: We are learning that the International Energy Agency has reportedly
[0:26] Speaker 2: proposed the largest release of oil reserves in its history. Obviously,
[0:31] Speaker 2: the aim would be to bring down prices that have
[0:33] Speaker 2: soared during the US Israeli action eny Iran. The Wall
[0:37] Speaker 2: Street Journal reporting the release would exceed one hundred and
[0:40] Speaker 2: eighty two million barrels now. Earlier in the day, the
[0:43] Speaker 2: oil market was buffeted by some confusion over whether the
[0:46] Speaker 2: US Navy had in fact escorted an oil tanker through
[0:50] Speaker 2: the Strait of horn Moves. Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed
[0:53] Speaker 2: that was the case in a post on social media. However,
[0:57] Speaker 2: that post on x was deleted. Then, in a briefing
[1:00] Speaker 2: with reporters, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said the
[1:04] Speaker 2: US did not escort any oil tanker through the strait.
[1:07] Speaker 2: For a closer look at some of this price action,
[1:09] Speaker 2: let's bring in Bloomberg strategist David Finnerty. David joins from
[1:13] Speaker 2: our studios in Singapore. Thank you for being here. Through
[1:16] Speaker 2: all of the turmoil that we have seen in markets
[1:18] Speaker 2: related to war in Iran, the dollar strength has been undeniable.
[1:23] Speaker 2: Not to be fair, the greenback has given back a
[1:26] Speaker 2: little bit over the last three days. How would you
[1:28] Speaker 2: describe these moves, David? Is it a have in trade
[1:31] Speaker 2: or is the price of oil been a more important factor?
[1:36] Speaker 3: I think, to be honest, it's sort of a bit
[1:37] Speaker 3: of both. I mean, you've got to even put in
[1:40] Speaker 3: there that the FED is, you know, market expectations for
[1:43] Speaker 3: the fed's being dulled back quite a lot as well,
[1:45] Speaker 3: so that's supportive US was pushing higher. So I think
[1:48] Speaker 3: it's a combination of factors, is really. And the other
[1:53] Speaker 3: thing is, you know, you over you know oil. Obviously
[1:56] Speaker 3: it's a big import oil importer of your zone. So
[2:00] Speaker 3: and that the OO has the big largest waiting the
[2:02] Speaker 3: dollar index or the Bloomberg Dolo index. So as UI goes,
[2:06] Speaker 3: Dollar tends to go the opposite. And obviously you always
[2:08] Speaker 3: been weighed down by the oil price of oils because
[2:12] Speaker 3: it's bad for the covenant account. So you know, I
[2:14] Speaker 3: think there's a mixture of factors in there. So all
[2:17] Speaker 3: of the above.
[2:17] Speaker 2: So if the longer term trend is for a stronger
[2:20] Speaker 2: dollar and we continue to see persistent weakness in selected
[2:24] Speaker 2: Asian currencies, do we need to consider the impact on
[2:27] Speaker 2: trade and how a weaker currency has the potential to
[2:30] Speaker 2: boost exports. Now I say that because today we learned
[2:34] Speaker 2: that South korea Is exports for the first ten days
[2:37] Speaker 2: of March jump by more than fifty five percent, And
[2:40] Speaker 2: I'm wondering whether buyers see the advantage of a weaker
[2:43] Speaker 2: currency and in that case would be compelled to bring
[2:46] Speaker 2: purchases forward.
[2:48] Speaker 3: I think to some degree. I think at the moment
[2:50] Speaker 3: it's a risk sentiment market and that's really what's dominating.
[2:54] Speaker 3: Ye know, these near term moves was a very headline
[2:56] Speaker 3: base are really what's super seeing everything else, if we're
[3:00] Speaker 3: being honest. So yes, you could go slightly, we could
[3:04] Speaker 3: currency will help you exports, but I think at the
[3:06] Speaker 3: moment then they go, but it's not good for inflation.
[3:09] Speaker 3: So I think overall, you're really looking at the market
[3:12] Speaker 3: at the moment's really just focused on what is its
[3:15] Speaker 3: inflation picture, how bad does it get, which really comes
[3:18] Speaker 3: down to how high and how long the oil and
[3:21] Speaker 3: gas go in the near term.
[3:23] Speaker 2: So are you prepared for a lot more in the
[3:25] Speaker 2: way of volatility across markets, whether we're talking currencies or rates.
[3:30] Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you have to be. I mean, at
[3:32] Speaker 3: the end of the day, the market's very headline dependent.
[3:34] Speaker 3: Is you look at yesterday you had the headline from
[3:38] Speaker 3: the energy sectory saying, oh, we've got we've escorted a
[3:41] Speaker 3: tanker to or moves and then they rejected that exit
[3:44] Speaker 3: hadn't happened. But the market's going to move off it
[3:46] Speaker 3: and then it has to retrace. So at the moment,
[3:48] Speaker 3: the reality is it's whatever the headlines are, and you
[3:51] Speaker 3: don't know what that headline's going to be. You do
[3:53] Speaker 3: not know when it's going to come out, You do
[3:55] Speaker 3: not know if it's could be reverse later on. So
[3:57] Speaker 3: it's volatility, I think is here to stay. The market's
[4:01] Speaker 3: certainly as trying to calm down because it's obviously got
[4:04] Speaker 3: a bit more information. It has the idea that Trump
[4:07] Speaker 3: has said, look, this won't be an extended war, which
[4:10] Speaker 3: is for lasting the market wants. But even within if
[4:14] Speaker 3: it's not extended war, you never quite know how this
[4:16] Speaker 3: is going to play out, and therefore there's always possibility
[4:20] Speaker 3: for a certainty or certainly near term, just these whipsaw
[4:24] Speaker 3: moves that you're seeing, so a lot of like you
[4:26] Speaker 3: look at FX, a lot of the countries are really
[4:28] Speaker 3: sort of range bound, but they're whipping around in that range,
[4:31] Speaker 3: so it becomes very tough to trade because literally it's
[4:34] Speaker 3: just going off headlines.
[4:35] Speaker 2: What is your sense of the degree of leverage in
[4:38] Speaker 2: markets right now? I mean, we had a lot of
[4:40] Speaker 2: turbulence in South Korea, and the indication that I was
[4:43] Speaker 2: given is that some of that was due to margin
[4:45] Speaker 2: calls and forced liquidation that essentially sent the cost me
[4:50] Speaker 2: one day down twelve percent? Is your sense that there
[4:53] Speaker 2: is still a fair amount of leverage throughout the system?
[4:56] Speaker 3: I think the leverage has certainly been reduced. I think
[4:59] Speaker 3: what happened is the or starting on the weekend. So
[5:01] Speaker 3: if you came in Monday morning the following Monday morning,
[5:03] Speaker 3: obviously the market moves straight away, so you were more
[5:07] Speaker 3: than like if you caught the wrong way, which a
[5:08] Speaker 3: lot of people were, whether it was short dollar or
[5:11] Speaker 3: long equities or blah blah, then obviously you were straight away.
[5:14] Speaker 3: Basically you were in the red, shall we say, to
[5:16] Speaker 3: some degree. I think, really, what's happening to all my
[5:20] Speaker 3: contacts is they've basically reduced of exposure or they've tried
[5:25] Speaker 3: to hedge to exposure. Having said that that, you know
[5:27] Speaker 3: they have maintained some losses. But at the moment, rather
[5:30] Speaker 3: than trying to add positions or increase exposure, given this
[5:34] Speaker 3: uncertainty of we're not sure how it's going to play out,
[5:37] Speaker 3: what direction, say the dollar or equities will go in
[5:40] Speaker 3: the near term, it's just like, look, let's reduce exposure.
[5:43] Speaker 3: So it's still exposure to be reduced or said or
[5:45] Speaker 3: hedge existing exposure.
[5:47] Speaker 2: You mentioned the euro a moment ago, and that has
[5:50] Speaker 2: certainly traded week against the greenback. Do you think we've
[5:53] Speaker 2: at around a buck sixteen put in a floor at
[5:56] Speaker 2: least temporarily.
[5:58] Speaker 3: I wouldn't say necessarily. Again, I think you're heavily or sorry,
[6:01] Speaker 3: the oil is heavily dependent on where the oil and
[6:03] Speaker 3: gas prices go. It is a big importal of both,
[6:07] Speaker 3: and obviously if they did start to surge higher again
[6:10] Speaker 3: then that could obviously put more pressure on them. So
[6:14] Speaker 3: I wouldn't say it's necessarily. I wonever i'd be looking for.
[6:17] Speaker 3: It's one fourteen sixty nine. That's like the recent logoing
[6:20] Speaker 3: back a few months, so it starts breaking below that,
[6:22] Speaker 3: then when fresh territory. What tends to happen is traders
[6:25] Speaker 3: will go as long as it's in a range, then
[6:28] Speaker 3: it's in a range, that's fine. When it starts breaking
[6:31] Speaker 3: out of that range, then you'd see some momentum trades
[6:33] Speaker 3: or people getting outtrades, so the moves can get a
[6:36] Speaker 3: bit more exascerinated. So I'd been certainly looking for a
[6:39] Speaker 3: blow one fifteen see how the market reacts to it.
[6:42] Speaker 3: But at the moment, I think it's it survived so
[6:45] Speaker 3: far should we say given that they are oil, the
[6:48] Speaker 3: region is all importans, But again we don't know how
[6:51] Speaker 3: this is all going to play out with oil and
[6:53] Speaker 3: straight orfore moves, so I wouldn't say we're out of
[6:56] Speaker 3: out of the water yet.
[6:57] Speaker 2: So when you get this level of volatility, would you
[6:59] Speaker 2: expect it forces central bankers to the sidelines. You don't
[7:04] Speaker 2: want to get actively involved in trying to intervene, whether
[7:07] Speaker 2: on the rate side because you're concerned about inflation, or
[7:11] Speaker 2: in a situation where a weaker currency may prompt you
[7:13] Speaker 2: to try to defend it. Is is it prudent for
[7:17] Speaker 2: a central banker just to kind of remain calm and
[7:20] Speaker 2: take to the sidelines at the moment, I.
[7:22] Speaker 3: Think a lot of central banks are doing that. We
[7:25] Speaker 3: have a lot of central banks decisions coming up next week.
[7:27] Speaker 3: We're obviously the FED being one of them, and I
[7:29] Speaker 3: think they know like that the problem is how high,
[7:33] Speaker 3: how long, and we don't have that information yet to
[7:35] Speaker 3: oil prices go. Having said that, some central banks, like
[7:40] Speaker 3: zer Bank of Indonesia so the Reserve Bank of India
[7:42] Speaker 3: and the Bank Indonesia have intervened in the councy markets
[7:45] Speaker 3: to help prop up their currencies. So certain currencies, if
[7:48] Speaker 3: you are net oil importers and you're vulnerable to this sentiment,
[7:52] Speaker 3: say in just certainly is then you know they have
[7:55] Speaker 3: intervened to prop up the countries to try to minimize
[7:57] Speaker 3: the decline. That does make sense. You don't want this
[8:00] Speaker 3: thing to escalate too quickly. But in terms of policy,
[8:03] Speaker 3: in terms of you know, do you hike or not hike?
[8:06] Speaker 3: I think initially the like that we need a bit
[8:07] Speaker 3: more information. You are saying. If you say Bank of
[8:11] Speaker 3: Japan does meet next week, the market's going that we're
[8:13] Speaker 3: not expecting to do anything next week, but April, when
[8:16] Speaker 3: we'll have a bit more information, So we say that
[8:19] Speaker 3: has become more of a live meeting now with markets go,
[8:22] Speaker 3: I look about fifty to sixty percent chance of a
[8:24] Speaker 3: rate height by then. Again, I think the key is
[8:27] Speaker 3: by that time, you know, we have three, four more
[8:29] Speaker 3: weeks or five more weeks of data, and then the
[8:32] Speaker 3: market we'll have a better idea of Again going back
[8:34] Speaker 3: to how high how long do these oil and gas
[8:37] Speaker 3: prices remain elevated?
[8:38] Speaker 2: So I'm wondering when you get this much market volatility,
[8:41] Speaker 2: whether it forces central banks to consider the possibility of
[8:46] Speaker 2: coordinating their responses.
[8:49] Speaker 3: It depends regarding what I think regarding monetary policy. That's
[8:53] Speaker 3: what you're alluding to. I don't think not yet. Again Again,
[8:56] Speaker 3: yes oil is gone, despite it's been only a week
[8:59] Speaker 3: or two weeks, you haven't seen markets collapse basically. Yes,
[9:03] Speaker 3: you've see moves, without question, you've seen increasing volatility, but
[9:06] Speaker 3: this isn't like you know, S and P, say, using
[9:09] Speaker 3: their equities down twenty percent or down ten percent. Even
[9:13] Speaker 3: so we're there is volatility, but not out of you know,
[9:18] Speaker 3: within decent realms. We say, given what's going on, I
[9:22] Speaker 3: think for them to corner activity, they'd be looking for
[9:24] Speaker 3: far more bigger moves that they would go, Okay, these
[9:27] Speaker 3: need to be sort of constrained to some degree if
[9:30] Speaker 3: they can. But at the moment I think they go
[9:32] Speaker 3: look with whethered, what what's happened so far? Relatively well,
[9:37] Speaker 3: or relatively said, given what has happened, you could expect
[9:40] Speaker 3: it to be a lot worse. So I think at
[9:42] Speaker 3: the moment they're quite happy to stay again relatively on
[9:45] Speaker 3: the sidelines. Said, because some banks have intervened to pop
[9:48] Speaker 3: up their currencies.
[9:49] Speaker 2: Does it surprise you that the Japanese yen hasn't been
[9:52] Speaker 2: more of a haven.
[9:54] Speaker 3: To some degree? I think you initially get the the
[9:57] Speaker 3: knee jerk moves higher, so like you saw a Swiss rink.
[10:01] Speaker 3: Initially on the Monday after the war started, move high over.
[10:05] Speaker 3: Yen was holding ground. In the weekend it was holding ground.
[10:08] Speaker 3: But now I think what's happened is that you're seeing
[10:11] Speaker 3: Japan is a big net oil and gas importer, so
[10:15] Speaker 3: it's been weighed down by its current accounts. So that
[10:17] Speaker 3: sentiment is there. The other problems that we always had
[10:21] Speaker 3: with Japan or the market out of Japan, that boj
[10:24] Speaker 3: maybe moving very slowly. Primaris attack each she's fiscal stimulus
[10:30] Speaker 3: weigh in on the company. So those haven't gone a degree.
[10:33] Speaker 3: So what's happened is that safe haven play. The market
[10:37] Speaker 3: sort of shrugged it off quickly because it said, well,
[10:39] Speaker 3: that's one side, but the opposite side is outweighing it,
[10:42] Speaker 3: and they said with the higher ordered prices. The market
[10:45] Speaker 3: quickly said, well, actually that's not good for Japan's economy.
[10:48] Speaker 3: So therefore the tug of war, shall we say, the
[10:53] Speaker 3: weaky yen side is winning now. I think what is
[10:56] Speaker 3: interesting is the market is well aware that were one
[10:59] Speaker 3: fifty eight. You know, market say we're reapproaching intervention territory
[11:04] Speaker 3: again or where the rate check was earlier this year,
[11:07] Speaker 3: so you know, how much higher does that have. I
[11:10] Speaker 3: think at the end of the day you could grind
[11:12] Speaker 3: up towards the one sixty level, maybe above one sixty
[11:15] Speaker 3: to one sixty one sixty two area. But I think
[11:17] Speaker 3: at some point then you know, the markets be where
[11:20] Speaker 3: it does the bo so it doesn't minister your finance intervene.
[11:23] Speaker 3: Of course, the catch is, if this is a dollar move,
[11:26] Speaker 3: you're just fighting a big dollar move. You're going I
[11:29] Speaker 3: going intervene where you going? You're going against the sea
[11:31] Speaker 3: of dollar buy how much impact will you have? So
[11:35] Speaker 3: I think that would also play into any intervention thoughts.
[11:39] Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, I think for
[11:41] Speaker 3: the moment the market's going look, there is room for
[11:44] Speaker 3: it to move higher. I don't think it's huge room,
[11:47] Speaker 3: but there is room for it to move higher. And
[11:50] Speaker 3: because it is part of the by dollar trade. So
[11:52] Speaker 3: as long as it remains that way, the risks of
[11:54] Speaker 3: skewity the upside. But as we said, a headline could
[11:57] Speaker 3: come out very quickly and going A tanker has been
[12:01] Speaker 3: escorted to the straight from moves and it's confirmed all
[12:04] Speaker 3: prices go down, dollar gets smacked, So you know it's
[12:09] Speaker 3: a chopping market to be trading in any market.
[12:12] Speaker 2: David will leave it there. Thank you so very much.
[12:14] Speaker 2: It's always a pleasure. Bloomberg strategist David Fennerdy joining from
[12:18] Speaker 2: our studios in Singapore here on the Daybreak Asia podcast.
[12:28] Speaker 2: Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm dek Krisner.
[12:32] Speaker 2: Let's get some more analysis on what we're seeing unfold
[12:34] Speaker 2: in the oil market. Von Dona Harri is the founder
[12:37] Speaker 2: of Vonda Insights. She spoke with Bloomberg TV host Heidi
[12:41] Speaker 2: Stroud Watts and April hom we.
[12:43] Speaker 4: Had seen oil prices start to creep up again, but
[12:46] Speaker 4: clearly there is some relief here, particularly if you take
[12:49] Speaker 4: a look at the non oil assets and those parts
[12:51] Speaker 4: of the markets as well. You sounded a little bit
[12:55] Speaker 4: doubtful when I spoke to you earlier. If they in
[12:57] Speaker 4: fact go through with this, how long live will the
[13:00] Speaker 4: impact be?
[13:02] Speaker 5: Good morning, Great question and great place to start, So
[13:05] Speaker 5: let's do the maths. The report so far is that
[13:09] Speaker 5: the IA is planning the biggest ever release, and the
[13:13] Speaker 5: number out there is so it would be somewhere north
[13:15] Speaker 5: of one hundred and eighty million barrels what we have
[13:19] Speaker 5: lost more than ten days of war. Very easy calculation,
[13:24] Speaker 5: about twenty million barrels per day that flows through the
[13:26] Speaker 5: strait of hormones. We are now past ten days of
[13:30] Speaker 5: the war. The market has already lost about two hundred
[13:33] Speaker 5: million barrels, give or take. If the IA countries released
[13:38] Speaker 5: that much of oil, and a separate question over what
[13:41] Speaker 5: period of time they'll be able to release all that,
[13:44] Speaker 5: that would simply make up what the market has already lost.
[13:47] Speaker 5: Then every single day after that that the war continues
[13:51] Speaker 5: and the strait remains closed. What do we do.
[13:58] Speaker 4: If you take a look at how how long this
[14:01] Speaker 4: conflict has gone for the impact across the Gulf States,
[14:04] Speaker 4: across the fliers it is, do you do modeling in
[14:08] Speaker 4: terms of how much worse it can get and what
[14:11] Speaker 4: alternatives there are to you know, being able to get
[14:14] Speaker 4: around using the straight of hor moves.
[14:18] Speaker 5: You know, this black saw swan event, if I can
[14:21] Speaker 5: call it, that has already gone past all modeling. You can't.
[14:28] Speaker 5: There's the obviously the warfare with the missiles and drones
[14:32] Speaker 5: and what's going on in the strait of Hormos right
[14:35] Speaker 5: so on the ground, and physical market disruptions that the
[14:40] Speaker 5: likes of which the markets have never seen before in
[14:43] Speaker 5: terms of the enormity twenty percent of the oil supply
[14:46] Speaker 5: simply getting cut off. But now this war has become
[14:50] Speaker 5: even more complex and layered the last few days. What
[14:54] Speaker 5: I'm seeing is it's become a psychological warfare. It's become
[14:58] Speaker 5: an information warfare, and just information warfare is wouldn't even
[15:03] Speaker 5: you know, completely describe it, because we are seeing you know,
[15:07] Speaker 5: as overnight we had the Energy Secretary in the US
[15:11] Speaker 5: putting out an expost that a tanker had been escorted
[15:16] Speaker 5: safely out of the strait of hormones and then retracting it,
[15:21] Speaker 5: and the US Press secretary, the White House Press Secretary
[15:25] Speaker 5: then saying that that was false information. So you know
[15:29] Speaker 5: that we are absolutely in uncharted territory here. And I
[15:34] Speaker 5: don't know what relief val was in the IA release.
[15:37] Speaker 5: Let's see what that does. Maybe some psychological impact, but
[15:41] Speaker 5: in the physical space, in the physical markets, it's absolutely
[15:45] Speaker 5: chaos and mayhem.
[15:48] Speaker 6: You talk about this psychological and information warfare. Say, though,
[15:53] Speaker 6: if this war comes to an end tomorrow, I wonder
[15:57] Speaker 6: what is your sense of the extent in which reduction
[16:00] Speaker 6: can be brought back quickly given the damage we've already
[16:04] Speaker 6: been seeing to producing infrastructure.
[16:08] Speaker 5: Yes, so I think we would also need to very
[16:11] Speaker 5: clearly define and agree on a definition of what an
[16:14] Speaker 5: end to the war means. Right, the market view has
[16:19] Speaker 5: been that President Trump declares victory, the war is over,
[16:25] Speaker 5: But we forget that there's two other sides in this war.
[16:28] Speaker 5: There's Israel, which said, I believe on the same day
[16:32] Speaker 5: that Trump said the war is going to be over
[16:35] Speaker 5: very soon, Prime Minister Nathania who said that Israel is
[16:38] Speaker 5: not finished yet. So we need to keep that in mind,
[16:41] Speaker 5: what plans and strategy does Tehran have. We don't know that,
[16:45] Speaker 5: So I think I would be very careful in calling in,
[16:49] Speaker 5: you know, describing what is an end to the war.
[16:52] Speaker 5: You would need absolute certainty for a period of time
[16:57] Speaker 5: in the markets and on the ground in the strait
[17:00] Speaker 5: of hormones that there's going to be no more threads
[17:05] Speaker 5: from drones and missiles and debris or even mines for
[17:11] Speaker 5: that matter, blade by anyone, for ships to actually start
[17:16] Speaker 5: going back and forth through that straight and for the
[17:18] Speaker 5: twenty million barrels per day to start flowing into the market. So,
[17:22] Speaker 5: you know, the end doesn't look as clear to my
[17:25] Speaker 5: mind as you know, one would hope it would.
[17:30] Speaker 6: And at the same time, is the war worsening the
[17:33] Speaker 6: problem that we've had of dark fleets? I mean, this
[17:37] Speaker 6: idea that the US is allowing Indian refiners to take
[17:42] Speaker 6: Russian energy and sanctioning them, I mean, how does this
[17:47] Speaker 6: shift the picture?
[17:50] Speaker 5: That's a drop in the bucket India could take potentially
[17:56] Speaker 5: I don't know, ten to twenty million barrels of Russian
[17:59] Speaker 5: oil that has been floating and stranded, if you will,
[18:05] Speaker 5: because of sanctions of the parties involved, or sanctions on
[18:08] Speaker 5: the vessels involved. Again, let's be very clear, the US
[18:12] Speaker 5: has not lifted even temporarily lifted sanctions on Russia. What
[18:17] Speaker 5: it has done is given a very limited waiver for
[18:22] Speaker 5: one month, India can buy oil that was already on
[18:26] Speaker 5: water as of the fifth of March. So a very
[18:29] Speaker 5: very small relief valve does almost nothing to address this
[18:34] Speaker 5: huge chokehold that we have in the Strait Now, and.
[18:39] Speaker 4: Where do you say the biggest vulnerabilities and economies across Asia?
[18:44] Speaker 5: Where do I start? So already we see the ripple
[18:47] Speaker 5: effect going through all the way into petrochemicals and every
[18:51] Speaker 5: single product around us that we consume that uses petrochemicals.
[18:56] Speaker 5: And you know, the every day I'm seeing at least
[19:01] Speaker 5: half a dozen two even a dozen companies declaring force
[19:05] Speaker 5: measure on products supply. These are petrochemical companies. So it
[19:09] Speaker 5: has already percolated all the way down to that part
[19:13] Speaker 5: of the oil supply chain that you know as is
[19:17] Speaker 5: the closest to consumers. And you know you earlier asked
[19:22] Speaker 5: me what when the war ends? I would say that
[19:26] Speaker 5: this supplied chain disruption has taken on such gigantic proportions
[19:30] Speaker 5: now that even a complete end to the war and
[19:34] Speaker 5: a complete return to novelcy. I fear would mean at
[19:39] Speaker 5: least months before we return to anything resembling normalcy in
[19:45] Speaker 5: oil supplies and refining, in petrochemicals and all the goods
[19:49] Speaker 5: that we consume on a daily basis.
[19:52] Speaker 6: So we are headed for a period of elevated oil
[19:56] Speaker 6: prices that could be extended protracted. I wonder what is
[20:00] Speaker 6: your sense of how high things can go one twenty
[20:04] Speaker 6: I mean, based on what you're saying, maybe that's not
[20:06] Speaker 6: even the lid well.
[20:09] Speaker 5: At this point, we are in this very curious and
[20:11] Speaker 5: unfortunate situation. I would say that the prices that we
[20:15] Speaker 5: are seeing on crude futures are simply completely disconnected from
[20:20] Speaker 5: ground realities. If you need to and if you have
[20:23] Speaker 5: to lift a physical barrel, which is where, which is
[20:25] Speaker 5: how the world functions, right, not on the basis of futures,
[20:27] Speaker 5: but the physical barrels, you are having to pay twenty
[20:31] Speaker 5: thirty forty dollars more than where the futures are trading.
[20:35] Speaker 5: So when you ask me where will prices go, it's
[20:38] Speaker 5: really hard to say. So which prices should we talk about?
[20:41] Speaker 5: But I would leave it at this that you know
[20:44] Speaker 5: how much longer the strait of horm moves remains close.
[20:48] Speaker 5: So the IA may provide some relief, very small temporary relief,
[20:53] Speaker 5: I would say, at the end of the day, the
[20:55] Speaker 5: strait of horm moves needs to reopen, or at least
[20:58] Speaker 5: in the physical market, physical oil prices will remain and
[21:01] Speaker 5: continue going up in triple digit territory. Just forget about
[21:04] Speaker 5: what you're seeing on your screens with regard to the futures.
[21:08] Speaker 2: That was von Donna Harri, founder of Vonda Inside, speaking
[21:11] Speaker 2: with Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud Watts and April Honn
[21:14] Speaker 2: bringing you their conversation here on the Daybreak Asia Podcast.
[21:22] Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak
[21:25] Speaker 2: Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story
[21:29] Speaker 2: shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You
[21:33] Speaker 2: can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel,
[21:37] Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for
[21:40] Speaker 2: insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore
[21:44] Speaker 2: and Australia. I'm Doug Prisoner and this is Bloomberg

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