# Iran De-Escalation Hopes, Philippine President on China, Energy

An episode of [Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1663863437), 25 Mar 2026, 17 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/58e85be7-dbb5-4043-afed-af80014dc0b3/c91e2252-4039-46e1-9556-b418001fd701/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=27143354-63aa-4ac5-965d-af80014dc0d3

Business and finance news from the Asia-Pacific. Oil declined and equities advanced as optimism strengthened around Washington's diplomatic push to resolve the near month-long Middle East conflict. We heard from Todd Jablonski, CIO and Global Head of Multi-Asset and Quant at Principal Asset Management. He spoke to Bloomberg's David Ingles and Yvonne Man. Plus - Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is open to restarting talks with Beijing on a joint oil and gas project in a disputed area of the South China Sea, saying the war in Iran may provide the impetus for a breakthrough. He spoke exclusively to Bloomberg's Haslinda Amin. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
[0:10] Speaker 2: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Charlie Pellet. Dog
[0:14] Speaker 2: Chrisner has the week off. Oil fell on reports of
[0:17] Speaker 2: a US diplomatic push to end the war with Iran,
[0:20] Speaker 2: which eclipsed news that more troops would be sent to
[0:24] Speaker 2: the region. The New York Times reported the US Center
[0:27] Speaker 2: on a fifteen point plan to end the conflict, citing
[0:30] Speaker 2: officials briefed on the move. For more on the markets,
[0:33] Speaker 2: we heard from Todd Jablonski, CIO and global head of
[0:36] Speaker 2: multi asset and quant at Principal Asset Management. He spoke
[0:40] Speaker 2: to Bloomberg's David English and Yvonne Mann.
[0:43] Speaker 3: Is it premature or is this the markets finally see
[0:48] Speaker 3: the end of the tunnel here?
[0:50] Speaker 1: I think today's price action certainly looks like a relief rally.
[0:55] Speaker 1: From my perspective. You entered into the conflict with risk
[1:00] Speaker 1: already priced at extremely high levels, and then when you
[1:04] Speaker 1: took oil up over one twenty, that certainly escalated fears
[1:08] Speaker 1: that investors had that the higher oil prices would be
[1:12] Speaker 1: a tax on growth and really derail some of the
[1:15] Speaker 1: cyclical quickening which has been behind some of the good
[1:18] Speaker 1: news in the markets this year. I do think today's
[1:20] Speaker 1: price action does in fact reflect investors growing in confidence
[1:25] Speaker 1: that there is an end insight to high energy prices
[1:28] Speaker 1: and perhaps geopolitical tensions can take a backseat to stock fundamentals.
[1:35] Speaker 4: Okay, if we move away from the headline risks than todd,
[1:40] Speaker 4: there's still that lingering concern that you know, three weeks
[1:43] Speaker 4: of conflict has already led to some economic scarring, right,
[1:47] Speaker 4: these fears of staxflation. Is it still worse kind of
[1:51] Speaker 4: positioning around that sort of scenario now or can we
[1:54] Speaker 4: start to face some of these concerns.
[1:57] Speaker 1: Well, concerns were the order of the day, no doubt,
[1:59] Speaker 1: but I think wise investors can look through that and
[2:03] Speaker 1: point two one a strong and quickening pace of global
[2:07] Speaker 1: economic activity. The US is slaved to grow at about
[2:10] Speaker 1: two point five percent, and meanwhile worldwide you're seeing about
[2:15] Speaker 1: seven percent revenue growth with about fourteen percent earnings growth
[2:19] Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. Despite all the drama in the headlines,
[2:23] Speaker 1: you're actually seeing a strong underlying economy and even without
[2:27] Speaker 1: two additional FED cuts. Yes, I think it's enough reason
[2:30] Speaker 1: for investors to go risk on overweight equities, overweight credit,
[2:35] Speaker 1: modestly remain optimistic that, yes, you can achieve a positive
[2:38] Speaker 1: level of return in twenty six even despite an elevated
[2:42] Speaker 1: level of geopolitical noise.
[2:45] Speaker 3: And pad just more on the fundamental story, do you
[2:48] Speaker 3: think that changes at all, even by a few degrees
[2:51] Speaker 3: coming out of this in as far as growth, inflation,
[2:53] Speaker 3: and not just in the US, right, we're talking global ems,
[2:56] Speaker 3: energy importers, what have you.
[3:00] Speaker 1: If I'm optimistic that we're seeing at the beginnings of
[3:02] Speaker 1: a de escalation, you might just see a little bit
[3:05] Speaker 1: of a haircut on sort of worldwide growth given the
[3:08] Speaker 1: short amount of time that you saw, the elevated prices
[3:11] Speaker 1: and the release of strategic reserves to offset a lot
[3:14] Speaker 1: of that will no doubt, in fact see some supply
[3:17] Speaker 1: tain crunches even in the best scenario. But worldwide, there's
[3:21] Speaker 1: reason to think that with de escalation in a relatively
[3:24] Speaker 1: short conflict, you can in fact look at risk assets
[3:28] Speaker 1: to perform. We're in fact overweight in the US, where
[3:31] Speaker 1: we like large and small caps, but I also point
[3:34] Speaker 1: to emerging markets where in China as well as in
[3:38] Speaker 1: Korea we see some opportunities. It also highlight in fact
[3:41] Speaker 1: Latin America where Brazil is showing some sign interesting signs
[3:44] Speaker 1: as well.
[3:47] Speaker 4: Yeah, interesting that you mentioned Korea. I mean, obviously there's
[3:51] Speaker 4: been concerns about supply risk given the energy crisis and
[3:55] Speaker 4: the like. You're still looking pretty as polish when it
[3:59] Speaker 4: comes to Korea Taiwan. You've hit the neutral sort of position.
[4:02] Speaker 4: Can you square that a little bit for US?
[4:05] Speaker 1: Yeah, on Taiwan, no doubt. I think you have some
[4:07] Speaker 1: of the higher valuations you'll find across Asia, and then
[4:11] Speaker 1: of course syncs up with what you find with the
[4:13] Speaker 1: hyperscalers of course in the US, but at those level
[4:16] Speaker 1: of valuations were a bit less interested than we are
[4:19] Speaker 1: in Korea, where in fact you've had tremendous price volatility,
[4:23] Speaker 1: but all behind some very interesting fundamentals. You've seen investors
[4:27] Speaker 1: perhaps move for the exit, take some profits after the
[4:30] Speaker 1: rally to begin the year and the subsequent decline on
[4:33] Speaker 1: energy concerns. We actually think Korea may be undervalued and
[4:37] Speaker 1: that good news may be yet to come, as you
[4:39] Speaker 1: see an abatement on energy prices and continued demand for chips,
[4:43] Speaker 1: electronics and some of the other global trade elements well
[4:47] Speaker 1: within the Korean economy.
[4:51] Speaker 3: Todd talk a little bit more about your preference in
[4:54] Speaker 3: terms of fixed income exposure, duration and everything in between.
[4:57] Speaker 1: Sir, Now, on a globe balanced bass, there's a lot
[5:01] Speaker 1: to like in the fixed income markets. In particular, we
[5:05] Speaker 1: like credit on the short end of the curve. That
[5:08] Speaker 1: could be investment grade corporates, preferred securities, US dollar high yield.
[5:13] Speaker 1: I'd also note em debt, particularly on the hard currency
[5:17] Speaker 1: side that basket of In fact, credit we think is
[5:21] Speaker 1: well positioned, despite the tight level of spreads, to continue
[5:25] Speaker 1: to give positive carry, especially in the short and in
[5:27] Speaker 1: the middle end of the curve. Now, it's always a
[5:30] Speaker 1: good idea to own long thirty year treasuries just in
[5:33] Speaker 1: case you see some negative news in an environment like this.
[5:37] Speaker 1: So I still think long treasuries make sense as a
[5:39] Speaker 1: bit of a hedge against a bad news surprise event.
[5:42] Speaker 1: But even without the tailwind of FED easing, we do
[5:46] Speaker 1: think that bonds could be poised to deliver a pretty
[5:49] Speaker 1: strong year, especially on the back of good credit fundamentals,
[5:52] Speaker 1: despite in fact, some of the noise you've seen on
[5:54] Speaker 1: the private side. Public credit we think actually is poised
[5:58] Speaker 1: to perform well in twenty six.
[6:00] Speaker 4: Yeah, you mentioned the noise on the private side of
[6:02] Speaker 4: private credit Todd. I got to get your take on this, right.
[6:06] Speaker 4: Are you looking to pick up some of these loans
[6:08] Speaker 4: as some of these private credit funds are having trouble
[6:11] Speaker 4: to sell at the moment because of these kind of
[6:13] Speaker 4: increased redemption requests, or do you think that there's more
[6:17] Speaker 4: something that's brewing here and we might see more defaults
[6:21] Speaker 4: along the line down the line here.
[6:24] Speaker 1: I think there's some increased pressure, no doubt on the group,
[6:27] Speaker 1: And certainly I think the democratization of private sounds like
[6:31] Speaker 1: a great idea, but sophisticated investors will We're well aware
[6:35] Speaker 1: of the illiquidity, and now that asset class private credit
[6:39] Speaker 1: is owned by many more investors with less familiarity with
[6:42] Speaker 1: the illiquidity that's part of the asset class. You know,
[6:46] Speaker 1: our research indicates in fact, there isn't a contagion and
[6:49] Speaker 1: despite some of the smoke that we've seen on a
[6:51] Speaker 1: few idiosyncratic issues, the market's behaving well. And in fact,
[6:57] Speaker 1: while you're seeing some pullback on some of the pricing
[6:59] Speaker 1: and invented is that were related around in sort of
[7:01] Speaker 1: the COVID era, I think it's a bit early to
[7:04] Speaker 1: step in and say, you know, I'd be ready to
[7:05] Speaker 1: be a buyer of some of those, but I don't
[7:08] Speaker 1: expect a force selling. I don't expect a kind of
[7:11] Speaker 1: pressure in the system, either on a liquidity event or
[7:14] Speaker 1: on accreditive or event enough to really shock that would
[7:17] Speaker 1: provide those kind of entry prices that I'm certainly looking for.
[7:20] Speaker 1: My sense is that private credit can continue through this
[7:23] Speaker 1: sort of framework of pressure and prove itself yet to
[7:26] Speaker 1: be a durable asset class.
[7:29] Speaker 2: That was Todd Jablonski from Principal Asset Management speaking to
[7:33] Speaker 2: Bloomberg's David Inglis and Yvonne Mann. Coming up an exclusive
[7:38] Speaker 2: interview with Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Junior right here on
[7:42] Speaker 2: the Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia podcast.
[7:54] Speaker 2: I'm Charlie Pella, Doug Prisoners got the week off, and
[7:57] Speaker 2: we go to the Philippines next, where the country has
[8:00] Speaker 2: declared a national Energy emergency that will be enforced for
[8:04] Speaker 2: one year. President Ferdinand Marcos Juniors as the conflict in
[8:09] Speaker 2: Iran could spur energy talks with China, and he spoke
[8:12] Speaker 2: exclusively to Bloomberg's has Linda Ahmen.
[8:15] Speaker 5: I think it's going certainly going to happen. I don't think, uh,
[8:21] Speaker 5: that's something that we can that is like an option.
[8:25] Speaker 5: That's it's happening.
[8:26] Speaker 6: Now.
[8:27] Speaker 5: There's going to be a very very seriously structuring I
[8:32] Speaker 5: remember I was watching Prime Minister Long from Singapore and
[8:38] Speaker 5: he was saying, there will be we will have to
[8:41] Speaker 5: withdraw redraw all of our our even our legal legal
[8:47] Speaker 5: relationships in terms of the international law, in terms of
[8:51] Speaker 5: all of these things, that they will have a lasting
[8:53] Speaker 5: effect and there is there will have to be a
[8:57] Speaker 5: new normal.
[8:58] Speaker 6: Is there reason to say that maybe it is a
[9:00] Speaker 6: good idea to have a partnership in developing the guest
[9:05] Speaker 6: resources in the disputed areas in the South China Sea.
[9:09] Speaker 5: We've always tried to differentiate the territorial disputes from our
[9:17] Speaker 5: trade arrangements and many investments still of the big programs
[9:22] Speaker 5: here of the government coming from China, and they have
[9:26] Speaker 5: not used this as somehow they haven't leveraged this, and
[9:30] Speaker 5: in any way, in quite the countrary, they've been very
[9:34] Speaker 5: helpful in terms of for example, fertilizer, which is important,
[9:39] Speaker 5: great deal for a fertilizer from China.
[9:42] Speaker 6: So would you consider developing guest resources with China in
[9:46] Speaker 6: the disputed regions areas in the South China Sea. Is
[9:49] Speaker 6: that something almost something that we've.
[9:51] Speaker 5: Been talking about for a great deal, but the territorial
[9:55] Speaker 5: disputes will get in the way of that. Maybe this
[9:58] Speaker 5: should be provided impetus for both sides to come to
[10:02] Speaker 5: an agreement.
[10:03] Speaker 6: The Iran war. Do you support the US Israel war
[10:07] Speaker 6: against Iran?
[10:08] Speaker 5: It certainly certainly was unexpected, and we never want war.
[10:15] Speaker 5: Our Our foreign policy is very very simple. It's peace
[10:21] Speaker 5: in the national interest, that's it. And war is never
[10:25] Speaker 5: in the national interest as far as the Philippines is concerned.
[10:29] Speaker 5: And so we just are hoping that this and soon
[10:34] Speaker 5: and that they whatever recalibration will will be, will be
[10:39] Speaker 5: done as quickly as possible so we can get back
[10:42] Speaker 5: to work. And that's that's really the that's really where
[10:46] Speaker 5: the Philippines is. We are watching, waiting, hoping and praying
[10:51] Speaker 5: that this end soon.
[10:52] Speaker 6: The war has sent the Philippine passo reeling sixty to
[10:57] Speaker 6: the dollar. It's testing new lows of the new lows.
[11:01] Speaker 6: Do you think the BSP needs to tighten policy to
[11:05] Speaker 6: height rates to support the currency.
[11:07] Speaker 5: As a matter of policy, we defend, we defend the
[11:10] Speaker 5: pestle to a certain extent, but we just i think
[11:16] Speaker 5: with the dollar moving the way it is, and it's
[11:19] Speaker 5: it's moving whereas before the dollar was seen as a
[11:22] Speaker 5: safe harbor currency. When you look deeper into it, the
[11:27] Speaker 5: dollars movement increase in value has been really because they're
[11:32] Speaker 5: the largest oil producer, and that's that's why that is.
[11:38] Speaker 5: And considering that then we have to I think it
[11:43] Speaker 5: would be even to be futile, uh to try to
[11:47] Speaker 5: spend all of this uh, all of our foreign reserves
[11:52] Speaker 5: on defending on defending the pestle. The impact of all
[11:56] Speaker 5: of this uh uh, of the war, of the war
[11:59] Speaker 5: in the middle is really to the middle income and
[12:04] Speaker 5: the lower middle income countries. And we are middle income country,
[12:08] Speaker 5: and so that's where that's why we have to look
[12:11] Speaker 5: at that. The other side of that for the Philippines
[12:15] Speaker 5: is the remittances. The remittances are paid in dollars, and
[12:19] Speaker 5: so there will be an increase, but that doesn't make
[12:21] Speaker 5: up for for the for the for the drop and
[12:24] Speaker 5: the dollar to pass over.
[12:27] Speaker 6: One of the key challenges is the economy. The Philippines
[12:32] Speaker 6: used to be one of the fastest growing in the region.
[12:34] Speaker 6: Now a leg guard fourth quarter GDP was a mere
[12:37] Speaker 6: three percent, which was the slowest space in fourteen years
[12:41] Speaker 6: outside the pandemic. Can you get GDP back above six perice?
[12:47] Speaker 5: Yes, we believe we can. I mean, we were forecasting
[12:50] Speaker 5: for the year twenty six. We were going we were
[12:54] Speaker 5: going to manage six to seven percent, six six to
[12:58] Speaker 5: seven percent, and that that that figure was something that
[13:04] Speaker 5: we came up with internally, but as well the other
[13:08] Speaker 5: financing institutions and the banks seem to have had the
[13:11] Speaker 5: same same opinion. Because the improvement.
[13:14] Speaker 1: In our.
[13:17] Speaker 5: Our grave on SMP and was it was going to improve. However,
[13:26] Speaker 5: but the war in the Middle East, those have to
[13:29] Speaker 5: be redrawn. Everything has to be redrawn. Then of course
[13:33] Speaker 5: oil oil does what it does, but it was fairly
[13:35] Speaker 5: steady at seventy two dollars per barrel for a good while.
[13:41] Speaker 5: So that's those are the basis that we were calculating.
[13:45] Speaker 5: Right now, the things change every day, so we have
[13:50] Speaker 5: to model that and recalculate that. So we we'll have
[13:53] Speaker 5: to see how long this this problem lasts, how long
[13:59] Speaker 5: it will take to readjust.
[14:01] Speaker 6: But how do you get to above six percent? What
[14:03] Speaker 6: is the strategy? What's needed?
[14:05] Speaker 5: Of course, it's investment because when it comes to when
[14:08] Speaker 5: it comes to production, most perhaps our largest, our largest
[14:16] Speaker 5: export in dollar terms is semiconductors, and that has been
[14:22] Speaker 5: a very that has been a very very important part,
[14:25] Speaker 5: and we have now moved away not no way, but
[14:29] Speaker 5: up from up the value chain from just pure fabrication
[14:33] Speaker 5: to design and that has put us in a very
[14:37] Speaker 5: good position for the advent of data centers of AI
[14:45] Speaker 5: and investment of course is the most important as well,
[14:50] Speaker 5: and so we have we have restructured even our tax
[14:55] Speaker 5: incentives for investors. The ease of doing business is something
[14:59] Speaker 5: that we been working very hard on. Bring down the
[15:02] Speaker 5: costs of transportation, for example, to digitalized. Digitalization is key.
[15:09] Speaker 6: Jet fuel is the other component to all of this,
[15:12] Speaker 6: and reports have suggested that that's a lack of jet
[15:15] Speaker 6: fuel and perhaps Philippines Air would have to ground some of.
[15:18] Speaker 5: The flights with a scarcity. So we say limitations now
[15:22] Speaker 5: on colude supply they refined. The refining of jet fuel
[15:29] Speaker 5: is much takes a longer time and so we will
[15:34] Speaker 5: have to depend on what is already readily available and
[15:39] Speaker 5: already there are when we when our airlines fly out,
[15:44] Speaker 5: several countries have said we cannot fuel your aircraft, so
[15:50] Speaker 5: you will have to carry the fuel there and back,
[15:53] Speaker 5: and that's around here. The long haul is going to
[15:56] Speaker 5: be a much more serious problem.
[15:58] Speaker 6: So inevitably planes will have to be grounded.
[16:02] Speaker 5: We're hoping not, but that's a possibility, is a distinct possibility.
[16:07] Speaker 2: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Junior, speaking exclusively to Bloomberg's Hos
[16:13] Speaker 2: Linda Ahmen, thanks for listening to today's episode of the
[16:19] Speaker 2: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at
[16:23] Speaker 2: the story shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific.
[16:28] Speaker 2: You can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast
[16:31] Speaker 2: YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen. Join us again
[16:34] Speaker 2: tomorrow for insight on the market moves from Hong Kong
[16:38] Speaker 2: to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Prisoner and this is
[16:42] Speaker 2: Bloomberg

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