# US and Iran Agree to Deal Halting War and Reopen Strait of Hormuz

An episode of [Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1663863437), 15 Jun 2026, 19 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/58e85be7-dbb5-4043-afed-af80014dc0b3/f072835c-8ea5-49aa-a7bf-b46a00163865/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=27143354-63aa-4ac5-965d-af80014dc0d3

Business and finance news from the Asia-Pacific. Stocks rallied, oil slumped and the dollar fell after the US and Iran said they had reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz will be "opening" on Friday upon the signing of the deal with Iran, President Trump said in a post on Truth Social. The deal announcement came first from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and was followed by Trump and Iranian state media. Neither side released the text of the deal but the broad contours had circulated for days. We spoke to Paul Dobson, Bloomberg's Executive Editor for Asia Markets. Plus for more on the US-Iran's peace agreement, Bloomberg TV hosts Haidi Stroud-Watts and Shery Ahn spoke to William Roebuck, executive vice president of the Arab Gulf States Institute. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
[0:10] Speaker 2: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. So
[0:13] Speaker 2: the US and Iran have reached a peace deal. It
[0:17] Speaker 2: will halt fighting for sixty days and reopen the Strait
[0:20] Speaker 2: of Horn MOUs on Friday when the deal is signed. Now, earlier,
[0:24] Speaker 2: President Trump authorized the end of the US naval blockade
[0:28] Speaker 2: of Iranian ports in the Strait, and at the same time,
[0:32] Speaker 2: Iranian media says the US will immediately release twelve billion
[0:36] Speaker 2: dollars in frozen funds. Now, officials from these two countries
[0:39] Speaker 2: will be meeting in Switzerland on June nineteenth. That's the
[0:43] Speaker 2: plan to formally sign the agreement. Pakistan was a mediator
[0:47] Speaker 2: in these negotiations, and the country's Prime Minister, Shabas Sharif
[0:51] Speaker 2: said this accord will cover Lebanon and now we are
[0:54] Speaker 2: hearing from the UK, France, Germany and Italy that they
[0:59] Speaker 2: are all willing to lift relevant sanctions on Iran. For
[1:03] Speaker 2: a closer look at how this news is impacting markets,
[1:06] Speaker 2: let's bring in Bloomberg's Paul Dobson. Paul as executive editor
[1:09] Speaker 2: for Asia Markets, and he joins from our studios in Singapore.
[1:13] Speaker 2: Thank you for being here. So obviously we see that
[1:16] Speaker 2: crude oil prices are following considerably, and this is having
[1:20] Speaker 2: a kind of a ripple effect across all asset classes, right.
[1:24] Speaker 3: That's right. I think the market is taking this as
[1:26] Speaker 3: an unequivocal positive at this point. We were already starting
[1:31] Speaker 3: to factor it in at the end of last week,
[1:33] Speaker 3: but nonetheless we're seeing an acceleration of those news. So
[1:36] Speaker 3: we have crude oil trading at a three month low,
[1:38] Speaker 3: we have stock index futures for US markets up close
[1:42] Speaker 3: to one percent, and Asian equities also rallying those that
[1:46] Speaker 3: are open so far career and Japan having a good
[1:49] Speaker 3: time of it. In the currency market, the dollar, which
[1:52] Speaker 3: you know, through this period has benefited from the US
[1:55] Speaker 3: being and energy exporder as well as those increasing bets
[1:58] Speaker 3: that the Fed might hike into. The dollar is now
[2:01] Speaker 3: weaker against all of its major counterparts, with some of
[2:04] Speaker 3: those sort of riskier FX towards the top of the pile,
[2:08] Speaker 3: the South African rand leading the way there. And in
[2:11] Speaker 3: the bond markets, you've got because the crude oil price
[2:14] Speaker 3: is falling, an inflation outlook is easing a little bit.
[2:16] Speaker 3: You've got lower yields across the curve in the Treasury's
[2:19] Speaker 3: market about six bases points at the near end, So
[2:22] Speaker 3: people backing off a little bit from those Fed bets,
[2:24] Speaker 3: which is part of the reason why some of the
[2:26] Speaker 3: heat is coming out of the US dollar.
[2:27] Speaker 2: I'm so glad you mentioned that because the Fed has
[2:29] Speaker 2: a great decision on Wednesday. This is Chair Kevin Walsh's
[2:34] Speaker 2: first FOMC meeting, and maybe we could say that is
[2:38] Speaker 2: somewhat of a high stakes test for him. On one hand,
[2:41] Speaker 2: obviously we know that President Trump favors lower rates. But
[2:44] Speaker 2: you mentioned the inflation story last week, that CPI print
[2:47] Speaker 2: that we had here in the States. The headline number
[2:50] Speaker 2: an annual increase of four point two percent. That seems
[2:54] Speaker 2: pretty hot. I think it's about the fastest rate of
[2:56] Speaker 2: inflation that we have seen in three years on a
[2:59] Speaker 2: headline basis. I know the Fed is expected to hold
[3:03] Speaker 2: raid steady. What does today's news on the war with
[3:07] Speaker 2: Iran do with anything to shift the narrative even slightly.
[3:11] Speaker 3: Well, it might play into his hands just that little bit.
[3:16] Speaker 3: If you know, the premise of the need for higher
[3:20] Speaker 3: interest rates was because of the inflationary impact of the war.
[3:23] Speaker 3: So if crude oil and energy prices can come down
[3:26] Speaker 3: fast enough, maybe that takes some of the pressure of
[3:29] Speaker 3: the Fed to raise interest rates. The market is only
[3:32] Speaker 3: pricing in a move towards the start of next year,
[3:35] Speaker 3: so that's still quite a long way down the line
[3:37] Speaker 3: either way. But I do think that whatever we hear
[3:39] Speaker 3: from Walsh is going to be really important in terms
[3:42] Speaker 3: of that signaling and the tone that he strikes and
[3:44] Speaker 3: whatever balance he tries to get there. And the market
[3:47] Speaker 3: also knows that he's only one vote on the FOMC panel,
[3:51] Speaker 3: and there may still be several others agitating for a
[3:55] Speaker 3: hike even if he gives quite a dovish message. But
[3:58] Speaker 3: it will be interesting to see what that sort of
[4:00] Speaker 3: communication looks like. It may be some other stuff that
[4:04] Speaker 3: he tries to do as well, almost immediately to pair
[4:08] Speaker 3: back on exactly how much forward guidance the FED gives
[4:11] Speaker 3: on the outlook for interest rates as one of his
[4:14] Speaker 3: sort of stated objectives, and that longer term goal of
[4:17] Speaker 3: kind of reducing the Fed's balance sheet as well. If
[4:19] Speaker 3: we get any color on what that looks like right
[4:21] Speaker 3: from the off, that might be interesting as well for
[4:23] Speaker 3: markets to latch onto.
[4:25] Speaker 2: So on Tuesday, we have a great decision from the
[4:27] Speaker 2: Reserve Bank of Australia. Now, you and I both know
[4:30] Speaker 2: that the RBA has been a little hawkish lately. What
[4:35] Speaker 2: are policymakers expected to do down under? Do they keep
[4:38] Speaker 2: interest rates unchanged?
[4:40] Speaker 3: So I think that the RBA has gotten out in
[4:42] Speaker 3: front of the inflationary moves and impact from crude oil.
[4:46] Speaker 3: We're already hiking way faster than the rest of the
[4:49] Speaker 3: developed world, so it may be time for them to
[4:51] Speaker 3: kind of go on hold and see how that looks
[4:55] Speaker 3: from now. What I do you know is that as
[4:57] Speaker 3: far as bond investors are concerned, those Australian yields which
[5:01] Speaker 3: have been pushed up by the RBA hikes look pretty tempting,
[5:04] Speaker 3: particularly as it's a triple A rated nation, so safe
[5:08] Speaker 3: bonds and decent yields and decent currency appreciation prospects as well.
[5:13] Speaker 3: You're probably going to ask me next, Doug, what about
[5:15] Speaker 3: the boj which would be also also coming up this week.
[5:19] Speaker 3: If they don't hike, that would be a major, major
[5:21] Speaker 3: surprise and a shock for the market. But there's a
[5:23] Speaker 3: couple of interesting wrinkles there as well. What's really important
[5:26] Speaker 3: is the signaling that we get for how many more
[5:29] Speaker 3: hikes we can expect this year, how fast the pace
[5:31] Speaker 3: of hiking is going to be from here. But with
[5:34] Speaker 3: the governor in hospital, it's going to be his deputy
[5:36] Speaker 3: giving that press conference, and so it'd be really interesting
[5:39] Speaker 3: to see how that communication lands is interpreted, whether he
[5:43] Speaker 3: tries to be a little bit more clear on that
[5:45] Speaker 3: path for interest rates or Blake Awada gives arguments in
[5:48] Speaker 3: both directions and leads the market to sort of think
[5:52] Speaker 3: it through for itself.
[5:53] Speaker 2: So, given the price action that we're seeing in markets today,
[5:56] Speaker 2: Crode down, US treasure yields lower, I'm seeing weakness in
[6:00] Speaker 2: a stronger yen. There could be an argument made that
[6:05] Speaker 2: the market is going to begin doing some of the
[6:07] Speaker 2: work for these central bankers. Am I right in saying that?
[6:10] Speaker 2: Or is that a little misguided?
[6:11] Speaker 4: No?
[6:12] Speaker 3: I think I think that that's fair. So you mentioned
[6:16] Speaker 3: the yen. I think the yen is still super interesting,
[6:18] Speaker 3: right because if the boj is not sufficiently hawkish, who
[6:23] Speaker 3: are still around those levels where the Japanese authorities intervened
[6:28] Speaker 3: in currency markets to try to push the yen higher,
[6:31] Speaker 3: And if the BOJA isn't sufficiently hawkish, we may see
[6:34] Speaker 3: the yen starts weaken again back into that kind of
[6:36] Speaker 3: intervention zone. So that's one to watch out for.
[6:39] Speaker 2: So we have the monthly activity data for the month
[6:42] Speaker 2: of May for China coming out this week. So looking
[6:46] Speaker 2: at things like retail sales industrial production, what's the feeling
[6:51] Speaker 2: here in terms of the performance of the Chinese economy lately?
[6:54] Speaker 2: Are things kind of holding their own so to speak?
[6:58] Speaker 3: Well, those two data points that you mentioned, Doug kind
[7:02] Speaker 3: of putting in different directions still aren't they. Retail sales.
[7:05] Speaker 3: On the one hand, the domestic economy still looks pretty
[7:07] Speaker 3: flacid for now. We had some loan growth data over
[7:12] Speaker 3: the weekend, and while it was a teeny tiny improvement,
[7:16] Speaker 3: it still looks pretty grim there. And in fact, the
[7:20] Speaker 3: Central Bank has been trying to push financial institutions to
[7:24] Speaker 3: stop lending to each other. With all the spared liquidity
[7:26] Speaker 3: out there, it needs to find another way to try
[7:29] Speaker 3: to get that transmission mechanism going and get more lending
[7:34] Speaker 3: going through the economy. But I think on the experts front,
[7:36] Speaker 3: on the industrial production front, on the shipments to the
[7:40] Speaker 3: rest of the world, things are looking much brighter and rosier,
[7:42] Speaker 3: and that's what's really holding up the Chinese economy at
[7:45] Speaker 3: the moment, So it's still that kind of k shape
[7:48] Speaker 3: going on, and more efforts are likely to come through
[7:52] Speaker 3: to try to stimulate domestic demand. We have seen some
[7:55] Speaker 3: stabilization in the property market and that's pretty important, but
[7:58] Speaker 3: not enough on its own to really get things going
[8:02] Speaker 3: with a little bit more kind of confidence in the
[8:04] Speaker 3: domestic economy.
[8:05] Speaker 2: So obviously, the key price driver of today's action is
[8:09] Speaker 2: this piece deal between the US and Iran. But I
[8:11] Speaker 2: have to ask as to whether or not there has
[8:14] Speaker 2: been any impact as a result of the SpaceX IPO
[8:18] Speaker 2: in the state's last Friday, a twenty five percent gain
[8:22] Speaker 2: in the stocks trading debut. Is that having any effect
[8:25] Speaker 2: on psychology in the Asia Pacific? Yeah.
[8:28] Speaker 3: I think that it will do three things. One, it
[8:31] Speaker 3: sort of starts to crystallize the value of some of
[8:34] Speaker 3: these private companies that have grown super large. So what
[8:38] Speaker 3: people will really want to watch with SpaceX over the
[8:41] Speaker 3: coming week is can it sustain these values and valuations.
[8:44] Speaker 3: If it does, then it tells you a lot about
[8:46] Speaker 3: what private equity looks like. And so those other companies
[8:49] Speaker 3: that are going to come to the market soon may
[8:52] Speaker 3: be emboldened as a result of that. Two, I think
[8:55] Speaker 3: you know, it talks to the idea that there still
[8:58] Speaker 3: is plenty of investor hunger and appetite to buy into
[9:02] Speaker 3: the AI and the new technologies themes, and so we're
[9:05] Speaker 3: looking for read a cross into Asia's markets for space
[9:09] Speaker 3: exploration companies and everything along that supply chain. And I
[9:13] Speaker 3: think three, you know, all of that cash that had
[9:15] Speaker 3: been locked up pending the SpaceX IPO, whatever it wasn't allocated,
[9:20] Speaker 3: is now free to go back into markets, and so
[9:22] Speaker 3: that may give us another tailwind through the start of
[9:25] Speaker 3: this week, along with hopes that we're finally done with
[9:28] Speaker 3: the Middle East conflict.
[9:30] Speaker 2: Paul will leave it. Theyre always a pleasure. Thank you
[9:32] Speaker 2: so very much. Bloomberg's Paul Dobson. He's executive editor for
[9:35] Speaker 2: Asian Markets, joining from Singapore here on the Daybreak Asia podcast.
[9:47] Speaker 2: Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Prisner,
[9:50] Speaker 2: and as I mentioned earlier, the US and Iran have
[9:53] Speaker 2: reached a piece deal. It's going to halt fighting for
[9:56] Speaker 2: sixty days and reopen the straight orform moves on Friday
[10:00] Speaker 2: when the deal is signed. And that is where we
[10:02] Speaker 2: began our conversation with William Roebuck. He is former US
[10:06] Speaker 2: Ambassador to Bahrain. Ambassador Roebuck spoke with Bloomberg TV host
[10:10] Speaker 2: Cherry On and Heidi Stroud Watts.
[10:12] Speaker 4: We still need to get the details of this seal,
[10:15] Speaker 4: but from what we can see so far, what would
[10:18] Speaker 4: you say has been achieved by the Trump administration since
[10:23] Speaker 4: the US and Israel attacked Iran on February twenty eighth.
[10:29] Speaker 5: I think they got the least bad option that was
[10:32] Speaker 5: available to them. I think the original rationales for the
[10:38] Speaker 5: war didn't seem to be attainable. I think for the
[10:44] Speaker 5: last couple of months at least President Trump has indicated
[10:50] Speaker 5: he wanted to extricate the United States from this conflict
[10:54] Speaker 5: and move it to a negotiations channel. But he I
[10:58] Speaker 5: think he struggled to find the diplomatic off ramp that
[11:02] Speaker 5: was functional and that was that he could, you know, sell,
[11:06] Speaker 5: I think diplomatically as well as regionally. I think with
[11:10] Speaker 5: the hope of the pakistanis the cutteries, I think they
[11:15] Speaker 5: finally looks like they have finally managed to put something
[11:18] Speaker 5: together that that is feasible and that they'll sign it
[11:23] Speaker 5: in the next few days.
[11:25] Speaker 4: How much of this scenario was already foreseen by previous administrations,
[11:29] Speaker 4: which is why we didn't get such a direct confrontation
[11:33] Speaker 4: with Iran in the past. I mean, we have seen
[11:35] Speaker 4: the country pretty battered by the air strikes, but at
[11:37] Speaker 4: the same time they were able to impose and and
[11:41] Speaker 4: really cause chaos across the region.
[11:46] Speaker 3: That's right.
[11:46] Speaker 5: I think the the deal that was in place before
[11:53] Speaker 5: the j c p o A achieved a lot of
[11:56] Speaker 5: this restraint on Iran's nuclear program at a at an
[12:00] Speaker 5: earlier stage, the Trump administration decided to go a different route.
[12:04] Speaker 5: I think the bombings that they did with Israel in
[12:08] Speaker 5: June were quite effective in putting back the Iran nuclear
[12:14] Speaker 5: program quite a ways. And I think maybe the administration
[12:21] Speaker 5: and the Israelis miscalculated to be honest about what they
[12:25] Speaker 5: could achieve from a broader military campaign in February. And
[12:30] Speaker 5: I just don't think given what it was going to
[12:33] Speaker 5: take to change the status quo that said in fairly quickly,
[12:38] Speaker 5: I think the Trump administration calculated that they needed to
[12:41] Speaker 5: find some sort of diplomatic off ramp and move probably
[12:46] Speaker 5: moved back to the type of JCPOA negotiations that were
[12:52] Speaker 5: in place before.
[12:55] Speaker 4: Ambassador.
[12:57] Speaker 1: To be clear, this is an MoU right, which is
[13:00] Speaker 1: unusual in itself. You don't tend to end wars with
[13:04] Speaker 1: memorandums of understanding. So how much more space is there
[13:08] Speaker 1: for things to go wrong over the next sixty days.
[13:10] Speaker 1: We already saw President Trump speaking to The New York
[13:13] Speaker 1: Times saying that if things don't go well, they will
[13:15] Speaker 1: resume strikes.
[13:18] Speaker 5: I mean, he's said this type of thing before. I
[13:23] Speaker 5: think it's pretty clear now that we are moving to
[13:28] Speaker 5: a new stage in this conflict that began that erupted
[13:32] Speaker 5: February twenty eight. I mean, the signs are there that
[13:36] Speaker 5: it's going to move fairly dramatically to a diplomatic track.
[13:43] Speaker 5: And the key going forward is for the United States
[13:47] Speaker 5: to make sure that it has the expertise that it
[13:50] Speaker 5: needs that, whether it's nuclear expertise or diplomatic expertise, to
[13:56] Speaker 5: ensure that they can get a good agreement of an
[13:59] Speaker 5: agreement that in the interest of the United States.
[14:05] Speaker 1: How much through this peripherally has Beijing and Russia benefited.
[14:14] Speaker 5: I'm not sure that Russia has particularly benefited. I think
[14:17] Speaker 5: they probably helped the Iranians some on the military side,
[14:20] Speaker 5: maybe on the intelligence side, and bought some goodwill. I
[14:24] Speaker 5: don't think it changed their strategic position much. I think
[14:28] Speaker 5: China benefits quite significantly. They're a big customer for Iran's oil.
[14:34] Speaker 5: They have provided a far more effective coverer, I think,
[14:41] Speaker 5: or for the Iranians to operate in. They provided some
[14:46] Speaker 5: They haven't stated that they would provide military protection or
[14:52] Speaker 5: military supplies, but diplomatically they have been a very important
[14:57] Speaker 5: partner that has stood with Iran throughout this crisis and
[15:00] Speaker 5: provided it with some strategic debt. And they'll read this.
[15:05] Speaker 4: One partnership that will be watching will be between the
[15:09] Speaker 4: US and Israel as well, right, I mean President Trump
[15:11] Speaker 4: telling the New York Times that primes are Natanya, who
[15:16] Speaker 4: describing him as quote very difficult. What are the implications
[15:20] Speaker 4: for this relationship.
[15:24] Speaker 5: The most immediate implication is the confrontation in Lebanon between
[15:29] Speaker 5: Israel and Hae Well. I think President Trump has already
[15:32] Speaker 5: been putting quite a bit of rhetorical pressure on the
[15:36] Speaker 5: Israelis to stop the bombing. I think it sounds like,
[15:40] Speaker 5: although I don't know the exact picture on the ground,
[15:43] Speaker 5: but it sounds like if the Iranians have agreed to
[15:46] Speaker 5: go forward, that this is going to kick in. What
[15:51] Speaker 5: it will look like in a few months is not clear,
[15:53] Speaker 5: of course, but for now, I would imagine the Israelis
[15:58] Speaker 5: see it in their interest to get out of the
[16:00] Speaker 5: way and let this agreement take effect and see where
[16:05] Speaker 5: things stand down the road. The relationship with Israel United
[16:09] Speaker 5: States is strong. President Trump has been a strong friend
[16:13] Speaker 5: of Israel, and I imagine that that dynamic will continue.
[16:19] Speaker 1: Ambassador, what do you think are the longer lasting ramifications
[16:22] Speaker 1: for the Gulf. Do you think this conflict has changed
[16:25] Speaker 1: the region and the alliances the dynamics permanently.
[16:29] Speaker 5: This has been a huge shock to the Gulf states.
[16:34] Speaker 5: Their economies have been hit, their infrastructure has been hit,
[16:40] Speaker 5: their people have been put under a threat. They have
[16:46] Speaker 5: been outraged, of course by the actions that the Iranians
[16:50] Speaker 5: have taken. These states have very ambitious economic diversification plans,
[16:55] Speaker 5: every one of them. They're looking for ways to diversify
[16:58] Speaker 5: their economies beyond just oil producing countries. I think disagreement,
[17:04] Speaker 5: if it leads to other a more stable nuclear type agreement,
[17:12] Speaker 5: will help them to get back to a situation that
[17:15] Speaker 5: is stable and secure, so that they can focus on
[17:18] Speaker 5: these economic diversification plans that they have out there for
[17:23] Speaker 5: ten years. Twenty years, sometimes even longer. They will be
[17:27] Speaker 5: concerned about the Strait and they will look very closely
[17:30] Speaker 5: at any sort of governance for the Strait, any sort
[17:34] Speaker 5: of tolls, anything like that, and that will concern them.
[17:38] Speaker 5: But they have worked with Iran over many, many years
[17:42] Speaker 5: time immemorial. They have found a way to have relations
[17:46] Speaker 5: with Iran. It will be difficult at first, but I
[17:50] Speaker 5: think they will find ways to reopen those channels of
[17:53] Speaker 5: communication and with difficulty, get back to a diplomatic type
[17:59] Speaker 5: relate relationship over time.
[18:01] Speaker 2: That was William Roebuck, former US Ambassador to Bahrain, speaking
[18:05] Speaker 2: to Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud, Watts and Cherry On
[18:09] Speaker 2: bringing you their conversation here on the Daybreak Asia Podcast.
[18:16] Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak
[18:19] Speaker 2: Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story
[18:23] Speaker 2: shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You
[18:27] Speaker 2: can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel,
[18:31] Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for
[18:34] Speaker 2: insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore
[18:38] Speaker 2: and Australia. I'm Doug Chrisner, and this is Bloomberg

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