# Oil Gains Before US CPI, Asian Tech Stocks Rise

An episode of [Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1663863437), 12 Aug 2026, 17 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/58e85be7-dbb5-4043-afed-af80014dc0b3/c9972b09-6493-4832-86d2-b4a40021babb/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=27143354-63aa-4ac5-965d-af80014dc0d3

Business and finance news from the Asia-Pacific. Sentiment toward technology remained buoyant, with CoreWeave Inc. surging 16% in extended trading after booming artificial intelligence spending drove stronger-than-expected sales growth. Super Micro Computer Inc. rallied 7.6% in the post market after its revenue forecast topped estimates. The robust tech earnings helped MSCI’s Asia Pacific equities gauge advance 0.4%, with South Korea’s tech-heavy Kospi Index adding 2.8%. US equity-index futures were little changed. We hear from Xi Qiao, Managing Director and Financial Advisor at UBS. Plus - the yen was little changed around 159.33 a dollar. Investors are watching the currency as it approaches the key level of 160, raising concern that Japanese authorities will intervene again. The dollar weakened against most of its Group-of-10 peers. We discuss the yen story with Michael Ball, Bloomberg News Macro Strategist. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
[0:10] Speaker 2: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner. It's
[0:14] Speaker 2: proving to be a mixed day for equities across the
[0:16] Speaker 2: Asia Pacific. In the US session, stocks drifted lower in
[0:20] Speaker 2: front of a report on consumer prices, and American markets
[0:24] Speaker 2: also had to contend with a push higher in the
[0:26] Speaker 2: price of oil given the lack of a deal to
[0:28] Speaker 2: restore energy flows through the strait of horror moves. Needless
[0:32] Speaker 2: to say, higher oil prices have renewed concern about escalating inflation,
[0:38] Speaker 2: and that's where we begin our conversation with Tea Chow,
[0:41] Speaker 2: Managing director at UBS. She spoke with Bloomberg TV host
[0:45] Speaker 2: Sherry On and Heidi Stroud Watts on the Asia trade as.
[0:49] Speaker 1: Usual, There's a lot of cross currents going on for investors.
[0:53] Speaker 1: How big is this inflation print in terms of broader
[0:55] Speaker 1: sentiment going forward for you?
[0:59] Speaker 3: I think we're just not concerned with the inflation at
[1:01] Speaker 3: this point.
[1:02] Speaker 4: I mean, we're still pretty focused on the overall market
[1:05] Speaker 4: and the strength of the economy. So I mean, even
[1:09] Speaker 4: even with inflation where it is, I mean, the FED
[1:12] Speaker 4: is uh.
[1:13] Speaker 3: Is still on hold and the progress and.
[1:14] Speaker 4: The hopefully the US I RAN negotiations and uh AI growth.
[1:20] Speaker 3: We feel like the.
[1:21] Speaker 4: Economy is still going to be pretty much intact and
[1:25] Speaker 4: uh and we're positive and very optimistic uh towards equities
[1:29] Speaker 4: even though it might be bumpy, but UH still we
[1:31] Speaker 4: have a pretty good price UH target for the s
[1:34] Speaker 4: MP reaching about eighty two hundred. So I think, uh,
[1:39] Speaker 4: you know, investors should still continue to stay invested. Uh
[1:43] Speaker 4: and and hopefully you know, the AI and and the
[1:46] Speaker 4: strength of the markets will continue uh to help push
[1:49] Speaker 4: equities higher.
[1:52] Speaker 1: Yeah, tell us about how you're viewing the constructs of
[1:56] Speaker 1: the AI. The hyper scale is uh some of the
[1:59] Speaker 1: developments that we've said in that space, particularly in the US,
[2:01] Speaker 1: because there's been ongoing concern about obviously the amount of
[2:04] Speaker 1: infrastructure investment capex levels, but then we're also seeing you know,
[2:09] Speaker 1: the rotation of huge amounts of funds in these circular
[2:12] Speaker 1: funding arrangements.
[2:16] Speaker 3: Right absolutely. I mean, I think, you know, lots of concerns.
[2:20] Speaker 4: Well, we were reinconstructive on the AI story, but we
[2:24] Speaker 4: investors will you know, manage the concentration, and we're hoping
[2:28] Speaker 4: that investors can start to manage some of the concentration
[2:30] Speaker 4: by just diversifying out of you know, complete AI staffs,
[2:35] Speaker 4: but maybe into other sectors like healthcare, industrials, financials. Even
[2:41] Speaker 4: though we feel like AI is still going to push
[2:43] Speaker 4: the growth for the next probably five ten years, but
[2:47] Speaker 4: there's still a lot of room for investing in other
[2:49] Speaker 4: defensive sectors as well.
[2:52] Speaker 1: One of the non US markets you like, is China.
[2:55] Speaker 1: Tell us about what you're funding compelling within Chinese equities
[2:59] Speaker 1: at the moment. Is it that AI play on the
[3:02] Speaker 1: basis of the gap that is being very quickly closed?
[3:07] Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, I mean Chinese equities.
[3:09] Speaker 4: I mean, we think China's you know, has a lot
[3:12] Speaker 4: of room for growth in terms of the tech equities.
[3:16] Speaker 4: But you know, outside of China, you know, we want
[3:19] Speaker 4: to focus on you.
[3:19] Speaker 3: Know, India, Japan, uh Europe.
[3:23] Speaker 4: Those are also a lot of good valuations in some
[3:26] Speaker 4: of those markets. So I think, of course China is
[3:29] Speaker 4: going to drive a lot of the growth just because
[3:32] Speaker 4: we're located and because all the investments they.
[3:34] Speaker 3: Are also making an AI, I think.
[3:38] Speaker 4: It's probably worthwhile to stay with with some of the
[3:41] Speaker 4: Chinese larger tech names, but also diversify among surrounding countries.
[3:46] Speaker 4: I mean South Korea was also a big you know,
[3:49] Speaker 4: a big winner in the in the last few months.
[3:52] Speaker 3: But I mean we're currently.
[3:53] Speaker 4: Neutral and we are now more attractive on India, So
[3:58] Speaker 4: I think China, India, some of the surrounding country are
[4:02] Speaker 4: also a good place in this market, especially with the
[4:05] Speaker 4: AI growth.
[4:07] Speaker 1: When it comes to developments on the ceasefire or an
[4:11] Speaker 1: ultimate piece deal or at least, you know, a specific
[4:14] Speaker 1: deal to re open the state of hor moves, is
[4:16] Speaker 1: that meaningful for markets at the moment? Do you see
[4:18] Speaker 1: any kind of big change that could could come through.
[4:24] Speaker 4: I mean, I think negotiations are improving and we do
[4:29] Speaker 4: absolutely hope for a kind of resolution, but we feel
[4:32] Speaker 4: like eventual agreement with Iran I mean will likely keep
[4:36] Speaker 4: pressure on oil by allowing more supply to reach global markets.
[4:41] Speaker 4: I mean it's going to take some time, so I
[4:43] Speaker 4: mean this can definitely support gold by easing inflation concerns
[4:48] Speaker 4: and reducing the risk for further central bank tightening.
[4:52] Speaker 3: So I mean there's going to be some.
[4:54] Speaker 4: Impact, but I think eventually there will be a resolution,
[4:57] Speaker 4: but it's it's still going to be a kind of
[4:59] Speaker 4: a bump you rode ahead to get there.
[5:02] Speaker 1: What do you lack within bonds at the moment.
[5:07] Speaker 3: Well, we like a lot about bonds.
[5:09] Speaker 4: I mean, we think this is a great time to
[5:11] Speaker 4: lock in eels, especially with US corporate bonds five to
[5:15] Speaker 4: seven years. We prefer high quality also emerging markets. But
[5:21] Speaker 4: I think you know where races are right now, this
[5:23] Speaker 4: is a really good time to uh to to diversify
[5:27] Speaker 4: your portfolio within bonds and focus on the high quality
[5:30] Speaker 4: corporate corporate bonds.
[5:37] Speaker 1: We talked a little bit about the sort of broader
[5:41] Speaker 1: opportunities within China. I know that India is one of them.
[5:44] Speaker 1: Are you constructive on broader ams as a result, Yes.
[5:50] Speaker 3: Emerging markets absolutely.
[5:52] Speaker 4: I mean, we think EAM has had a good run
[5:54] Speaker 4: this year, but a lot of that is volatile as well,
[5:58] Speaker 4: is depending a lot on China, especially on China, so
[6:03] Speaker 4: we really have to see a stronger recovery in China's economy.
[6:07] Speaker 3: And I think, uh, you know, Ian is usually.
[6:09] Speaker 4: Em emerging markets usually as a smaller allocation for US,
[6:14] Speaker 4: uh you know, Like, I think it's good to be
[6:17] Speaker 4: be be participating, but we're still focusing more on.
[6:20] Speaker 3: Just a core US portfolio at this point.
[6:23] Speaker 4: And some of the larger developing markets such as China
[6:27] Speaker 4: and Europe and Germany and the your Eurozone.
[6:30] Speaker 1: Overall, career has of course been front and center. You've
[6:35] Speaker 1: downgraded from attractive to neutral. Is that over the froth
[6:39] Speaker 1: over the AI trade for you?
[6:43] Speaker 4: Uh? No, I mean that's that's actually a really good point.
[6:45] Speaker 4: I mean, I mean, career has certainly done very well
[6:47] Speaker 4: with the memory companies and just you know, but but
[6:51] Speaker 4: that a lot of that has run up pretty high
[6:53] Speaker 4: in a short time.
[6:54] Speaker 3: And you know, we have a lot of clients are
[6:56] Speaker 3: always favorable.
[6:57] Speaker 4: On the semi SAMESE and equipment's and founderies, but we
[7:02] Speaker 4: feel like, you know, focusing if you want to diversify
[7:04] Speaker 4: among the summes, focusing on some of the compute names
[7:08] Speaker 4: within sames and there's a lot of opportunities that we
[7:11] Speaker 4: see in smartphonemakers, payment networks, data centers, reads and.
[7:16] Speaker 3: Also some select consumer electronics. So a lot of that.
[7:19] Speaker 3: You know, it's still it's still a good play.
[7:22] Speaker 4: For some of the Korean companies, but you know, just
[7:25] Speaker 4: just to diversify out on.
[7:27] Speaker 3: Pure simes, I mean, these are some of the opportunitiesy.
[7:29] Speaker 2: How we see that was See Chow, managing director at UBS,
[7:33] Speaker 2: speaking with Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud Watts and Sherry On.
[7:37] Speaker 2: Coming up, we'll take a look at the end story
[7:39] Speaker 2: with Bloomberg News macro strategist Michael Ball. That's ahead on
[7:43] Speaker 2: the Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast.
[7:54] Speaker 2: I'm Doug Chrisner. The focus now is on the foreign
[7:56] Speaker 2: exchange and the Japanese hen in particular. We've seen some
[8:00] Speaker 2: renewed selling pressure as the market looks for a return
[8:03] Speaker 2: to that one sixty level against the US dollar. Now
[8:06] Speaker 2: In New York trading on Tuesday, the end was little changed,
[8:10] Speaker 2: but it remains clear that there is concern about possible intervention. Again.
[8:16] Speaker 2: We already know that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen has
[8:19] Speaker 2: said the US is willing to support the Japanese currency,
[8:23] Speaker 2: and many on Wall Street have speculated that part of
[8:25] Speaker 2: his motivation is to keep Japanese authorities from selling US
[8:29] Speaker 2: treasuries as a way of raising dollars. For a closer look,
[8:33] Speaker 2: I spoke with Bloomberg News macro strategist Michael Ball. It
[8:36] Speaker 2: was pretty surprising move, but everyone had been kind of
[8:40] Speaker 2: anticipating this, given the fact that the end had been
[8:42] Speaker 2: so weak for such a long time. It almost felt
[8:45] Speaker 2: like the market was waiting for the monetary authority in
[8:50] Speaker 2: Japan to act unilaterally, but they didn't. It was a
[8:52] Speaker 2: coordinated effort first time since ninety eight. The market obviously
[8:56] Speaker 2: was caught a little flat footed. Was it a watershed moment?
[9:00] Speaker 2: Do you think that it's send a kind of an
[9:02] Speaker 2: important signaled that maybe has the market a bit in
[9:06] Speaker 2: check right now or do you think we're making too
[9:09] Speaker 2: much of it.
[9:09] Speaker 5: No, I don't think we're making too much of it.
[9:11] Speaker 5: I think again we've crept up back to this one
[9:13] Speaker 5: sixtieth area. We're a little bit below it now today,
[9:16] Speaker 5: and again that seems to be the line in the
[9:18] Speaker 5: sand that the market has in mind for That's where
[9:21] Speaker 5: coordinated intervention, both the Treasury and them off and the
[9:24] Speaker 5: BOJ together all have to basically signal that this is
[9:26] Speaker 5: where we're going to defend until we get to September
[9:29] Speaker 5: or potentially October, where you could see rate hikes from
[9:31] Speaker 5: the BOJ to again give a more fundamental story why
[9:35] Speaker 5: the yen should appreciate and to change this feedback loop.
[9:38] Speaker 5: It's just a negative feedback loop of weaker yen be
[9:40] Speaker 5: getting weaker yen because of positioning.
[9:42] Speaker 2: So from the US position is Treasury Secretary Bestent looking
[9:46] Speaker 2: more at what's happening in the US treasury market than
[9:48] Speaker 2: he is the currency market, and he's concerned that we
[9:51] Speaker 2: may see a backup in US heields.
[9:53] Speaker 5: Yes, I think that's the primary goal here, and I
[9:55] Speaker 5: think he's signaled that in several ways. One obviously for
[9:57] Speaker 5: his worry that the intervention and will not only be
[10:00] Speaker 5: the selling of bills, which has been up to date
[10:02] Speaker 5: now how they've done it, but more on actually the
[10:05] Speaker 5: long end. So again, if they didn't have access, let's say,
[10:08] Speaker 5: to the THEMA kind of facility as a backstop, or
[10:11] Speaker 5: they didn't have access to the international repel market or
[10:13] Speaker 5: even the repo facilities the other ones that are available
[10:16] Speaker 5: at the FED, then they would have to sell longer
[10:18] Speaker 5: end treasuries what are the tens or thirties, and the curve,
[10:21] Speaker 5: which has already been under pressure since July FMC would
[10:24] Speaker 5: come under further pressure and that would actually force the hands.
[10:26] Speaker 2: So you mentioned FEMA, just to unpack that a little bit,
[10:29] Speaker 2: this is a vehicle that it was essentially allowed Japan
[10:32] Speaker 2: to borrow dollars to post US treasuries essentially as a
[10:36] Speaker 2: form of collateral. So they wouldn't be net sellers of
[10:39] Speaker 2: US treasuries to dump that inventory into the market and
[10:42] Speaker 2: run the risk of pushing US yields even higher, right exactly.
[10:45] Speaker 5: And there is a limit to that amount. I think
[10:47] Speaker 5: it's around sixty billion, which in its sense is a
[10:49] Speaker 5: little bit small for what is needed. Because let's keep
[10:51] Speaker 5: in mind the initial intervention that happened last week saw
[10:54] Speaker 5: about eighty billion dollars of bill selling buy them off
[10:58] Speaker 5: to actually support an buy yen. So this one itself
[11:02] Speaker 5: is you know, more of a backstop. It hasn't been
[11:04] Speaker 5: used yet because it's more expensive. It's about twenty five
[11:07] Speaker 5: basis points over what a normal repo rate would be
[11:09] Speaker 5: to do something like this, but in its signaling effect
[11:13] Speaker 5: it's much larger because again what we may see from
[11:16] Speaker 5: best in with you know, the new FED leader Kevin
[11:18] Speaker 5: Warsh is to lift the limit there, which then would
[11:21] Speaker 5: be a much bigger signaling effect. And overall, with all
[11:23] Speaker 5: the other tools that they have at their expo that
[11:25] Speaker 5: their can use, the Japanese then could just have this
[11:29] Speaker 5: as well as a backstop.
[11:30] Speaker 2: So take me back to the currency market. What this
[11:33] Speaker 2: means for not only the dollar, but the Japanese yanic gas.
[11:36] Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly, And again there's other things going on in
[11:38] Speaker 5: Japan that is making us worry that they'll be selling
[11:40] Speaker 5: treasury holdings. And as they sell treasury holdings, obviously then
[11:43] Speaker 5: they weaken sort of the dollars. They bring money back
[11:46] Speaker 5: into the end. But specific to what this intervention was about, again,
[11:50] Speaker 5: it was to initially stop official account selling of the
[11:53] Speaker 5: treasury market. And what it really means for the dollars,
[11:57] Speaker 5: you know, for that cross itself, it would weaken the
[11:59] Speaker 5: dollar against the end and effectually put more pressure even
[12:02] Speaker 5: on long end real rates, which is counterintuitive because the
[12:04] Speaker 5: rate differential story would be off there. But then it's
[12:06] Speaker 5: a capital flow account thing. Or basically you're just seeing
[12:08] Speaker 5: selling of dollar assets by Japanese holders.
[12:10] Speaker 2: So we know what the disinflation or deflation story in
[12:14] Speaker 2: Japan has been like for three decades, and we know
[12:16] Speaker 2: that the boj these days has been very very conservative,
[12:20] Speaker 2: moving very gradually. You could make a case, given the
[12:24] Speaker 2: level of inflation now in Japan that the BOG needs
[12:26] Speaker 2: to be a little bit more aggressive. That's not happening.
[12:30] Speaker 2: Is there the risk though, that if they begin to
[12:32] Speaker 2: lean into more of a tightening that we could see
[12:36] Speaker 2: a repatriation of Japanese assets leaving global markets like the
[12:40] Speaker 2: US and coming back to Japan.
[12:42] Speaker 5: Well, it might actually be the interesting I think you
[12:43] Speaker 5: actually nailed on the head. I think they took so
[12:46] Speaker 5: long for them to get inflation to kind of get
[12:48] Speaker 5: going again, and it has gotten going again. Obviously they
[12:50] Speaker 5: have more energy sensitivity and we know what's going on there.
[12:53] Speaker 5: But it took them so long to get rates off
[12:55] Speaker 5: the zirup and get them off the floor and get
[12:57] Speaker 5: it inflation back in grain and sort of the day
[12:59] Speaker 5: to day consumer that they're very worried that if they
[13:02] Speaker 5: sort of even tighten a little bit, they're going to
[13:04] Speaker 5: lose that progress. But to your point, if they do tighten,
[13:06] Speaker 5: if they come out and say September and they issue
[13:08] Speaker 5: maybe a statement that's more hawkish and expecting in october's
[13:11] Speaker 5: getting priced up again, because right now September is about
[13:13] Speaker 5: two third price for a hike, and if they don't go,
[13:15] Speaker 5: then the expectation to be one hundred percent for October.
[13:18] Speaker 5: But let's say they just do back to back, you
[13:19] Speaker 5: would see that curve flattened, so you'd see the long
[13:22] Speaker 5: end of the treasury curve, their treasury curve over there,
[13:25] Speaker 5: come off and get a rally, and that actually would
[13:27] Speaker 5: give you less incentive to repatriate back into the Japanese assets,
[13:31] Speaker 5: effectively into their bonds, because one liquidity is not great there.
[13:36] Speaker 5: Two then you're just your rate differential story is not
[13:38] Speaker 5: as compelling anymore because by hiking in the front end,
[13:40] Speaker 5: they're effectively showing that they have more responsibility towards the
[13:43] Speaker 5: back end as far as monetary policy.
[13:45] Speaker 2: So what's your sense in terms of yend weakness, is
[13:48] Speaker 2: the worst over at least in the near term.
[13:50] Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean that's a great question. I think a
[13:52] Speaker 5: lot of that has to do maybe with energy as well.
[13:54] Speaker 5: Obviously they have some sort of well not some sort
[13:57] Speaker 5: of they have a higher correlation here with oil prices.
[13:59] Speaker 5: Oil where it is is now in the rate to
[14:00] Speaker 5: change their state stable, then it's less of a pressure
[14:03] Speaker 5: on them there. I think you're right. I think in
[14:05] Speaker 5: a lot of ways. Well, not that you're right, but
[14:06] Speaker 5: what you're hinting at is that the worst could be
[14:08] Speaker 5: over if we see this coordinated intervention lead to basically
[14:12] Speaker 5: hold a period of time before you see actual rate hikes.
[14:15] Speaker 2: To what extent could the market be surprised right now,
[14:19] Speaker 2: is the trade so crowded that we risk maybe a
[14:23] Speaker 2: kind of a not I don't want to say violent adjustment,
[14:25] Speaker 2: but something that could be dramatic.
[14:27] Speaker 5: So the trades come off. To your point, I think, well,
[14:29] Speaker 5: a lot of that was last week was that people
[14:31] Speaker 5: were caught off sides by the coordination and now obviously
[14:35] Speaker 5: the size it was a somewhat large imprint they had
[14:37] Speaker 5: in the market, and people were basically still leaning very
[14:39] Speaker 5: short end and that's cleaned up nicely. We get to
[14:41] Speaker 5: see FTC data. That's one way to look at it.
[14:43] Speaker 5: But also we're hearing sort of from flow traders that
[14:46] Speaker 5: a lot of that has come off and it's a
[14:47] Speaker 5: much flatter position. People are more nervous. Now there's two
[14:50] Speaker 5: sided risks to where the end can go. And again
[14:52] Speaker 5: this one to sixty level is sort of the pivot
[14:54] Speaker 5: where if we drift above one sixty, I think people
[14:56] Speaker 5: will be mourned and powered to short it. Traders will
[14:58] Speaker 5: think that the intervention a one off and they're not
[15:00] Speaker 5: really disciplined or committed to it. And if it goes
[15:03] Speaker 5: lower then the feedback loop actually people will probably try
[15:06] Speaker 5: and rush into it to get ahead of maybe a
[15:08] Speaker 5: more structural change, which will again be real rate hikes
[15:10] Speaker 5: coming down the road.
[15:11] Speaker 2: Do you think I'm going to bring up trade policy,
[15:13] Speaker 2: because sometimes currency levels are very influential in that regard.
[15:18] Speaker 2: Is this meaningful in the way they could influence the
[15:22] Speaker 2: trade conversation?
[15:23] Speaker 5: Do you think, Well, we know Bess was hounding Taiwan
[15:26] Speaker 5: and obviously pressuring some of the other sort of Asian
[15:29] Speaker 5: export powers to basically strengthen their currency, So I think
[15:34] Speaker 5: that's always lurking in the back. We have a different
[15:36] Speaker 5: relationship with Japan, so I can't really give you a
[15:39] Speaker 5: great answer there. That's always a consideration, but I don't
[15:42] Speaker 5: think it's the driving force here. I think the driving force,
[15:44] Speaker 5: as we kind of basically hit on the head, is
[15:47] Speaker 5: Besson's worried about a lot of pressure on the long
[15:49] Speaker 5: end of the treasury curve, and he sees this as
[15:50] Speaker 5: one of many tactics he's using, including the recent announcement
[15:54] Speaker 5: of refunding and all that, to stick still with heavier
[15:56] Speaker 5: bill issuants to basically take pressure off further sort of
[15:59] Speaker 5: selling and supply in the back end, and not to
[16:01] Speaker 5: have that unhinged.
[16:02] Speaker 2: Michael will leave it there, thank you so very much.
[16:04] Speaker 2: Bloomberg News macro strategist Michael Ball joining us here on
[16:08] Speaker 2: the Daybreak Asia Podcast. Thanks for listening to today's episode
[16:15] Speaker 2: of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we
[16:19] Speaker 2: look at the story shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in
[16:23] Speaker 2: the Asia Pacific. You can find us on Apple, Spotify,
[16:26] Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen.
[16:30] Speaker 2: Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves
[16:33] Speaker 2: from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Prisner,
[16:38] Speaker 2: and this is Bloomberg

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