# Investors Await US-Iran Truce Extension News

An episode of [Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1663863437), 17 Apr 2026, 23 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/58e85be7-dbb5-4043-afed-af80014dc0b3/585b9969-157c-44c8-8f1a-b42f002b627e/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=27143354-63aa-4ac5-965d-af80014dc0d3

Business and finance news from the Asia-Pacific. Asian stocks fell as investors lightened their positions ahead of the weekend while awaiting progress on extending the US-Iran ceasefire, after a rally driven by expectations the truce would be prolonged. We spoke to Winnie Hsu, Bloomberg's Asia Equities Reporter. Plus - President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone for prospects that the US and Iran could clinch a permanent ceasefire as the two sides discuss an extended truce ahead of its expiration next week. "It's looking very good that we're going to make a deal with Iran, and it's going to be a good deal," Trump told reporters at the White House Thursday. Talks between Washington and Tehran could resume this weekend, he said. We heard from Will Todman, CSIS Chief of Staff of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department. He spoke to Bloomberg TV Hosts Haidi Stroud-Watts and Shery Ahn. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
[0:11] Speaker 2: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. Equity
[0:14] Speaker 2: markets in the Asia Pacific are showing a little bit
[0:16] Speaker 2: of weakness despite some earlier advances for US equities. In fact,
[0:20] Speaker 2: we had the S and P and the Nasdaq Composite
[0:22] Speaker 2: extending record highs. Now, a portion of that optimism came
[0:26] Speaker 2: when President Trump said prospects for a deal with Iran
[0:29] Speaker 2: are looking very good. For a look at what we're
[0:32] Speaker 2: seeing in market action across the APAC I'm joined by
[0:35] Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Winnie Sue. Winnie is Asia Equities reporter and she
[0:39] Speaker 2: joins from our studios in Hong Kong. Thank you so
[0:42] Speaker 2: much for being here. So we had the comments from
[0:45] Speaker 2: the President, we also heard interestingly from some leaders of
[0:49] Speaker 2: Golf and European nations. They are expecting this conflict to
[0:52] Speaker 2: linger a while longer. We are told a number of
[0:56] Speaker 2: them believe that it's going to take maybe six months
[0:58] Speaker 2: to reach a deal. Now. I know that you and
[1:00] Speaker 2: I have spoken in the past about the impact of
[1:03] Speaker 2: higher oil on a number of economies in the APEC.
[1:07] Speaker 2: China seems to be a very very unique situation. Here,
[1:11] Speaker 2: Can you help me understand what's going on?
[1:14] Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, because compared to countries like Japan and Korea
[1:20] Speaker 3: that realize a big portion of its oil imports from
[1:23] Speaker 3: the Middle East. In fact, China actually they have quite
[1:28] Speaker 3: a lot of their oil supply already secured domestically. But
[1:33] Speaker 3: also we talked about how they also get their oil
[1:36] Speaker 3: from Russia, so overall they don't see as much supply
[1:40] Speaker 3: disruptions when it comes to what we're seeing with the
[1:44] Speaker 3: closure of the Strait of Horror muz versus some of
[1:47] Speaker 3: the other Asian countries. But right now, what you mentioned
[1:50] Speaker 3: just now that was really interesting was the divergence that
[1:55] Speaker 3: we see from market reaction and from what the policy
[1:59] Speaker 3: makers are saying. On one hand, you have markets really
[2:02] Speaker 3: looking past the Iran war and almost acting as if
[2:07] Speaker 3: nothing really happened in the past six weeks, while we
[2:10] Speaker 3: still have the straight of hormones closed. And on the
[2:13] Speaker 3: other hand, you have the policymakers central banks warning of
[2:17] Speaker 3: a growth flowdown and of inflationary risks. So that's something
[2:22] Speaker 3: that's really interesting that we're seeing right now.
[2:24] Speaker 2: So if you look at the GDP the other day
[2:26] Speaker 2: from China, it doesn't appear as though the spillovers from
[2:30] Speaker 2: this war and Iran are showing up in the Chinese economy,
[2:33] Speaker 2: things are still holding up pretty well.
[2:35] Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, first quarter GDP come at five percent increase
[2:40] Speaker 3: year over a year versus the estimate of four point
[2:43] Speaker 3: eight percent, and the prayer number was actually four point
[2:46] Speaker 3: five percent increase. So this really shows you how resilient
[2:51] Speaker 3: the Chinese economy is. And part of that was, yes,
[2:56] Speaker 3: they haven't been really impacted by the Iran war because
[2:59] Speaker 3: of kind the oil supply that they have, but also
[3:02] Speaker 3: the manufacturing side of things still look pretty strong. We're
[3:06] Speaker 3: looking at industrial production numbers for March is also beating expectation,
[3:11] Speaker 3: so you can see that on the production side of things.
[3:16] Speaker 3: On the reflationary side of things and the export are
[3:19] Speaker 3: still the strength that China has. Well. On the other hand,
[3:23] Speaker 3: you're still looking at the weakness in retail sales which
[3:26] Speaker 3: actually came below expectation, and unemployment rate actually came above
[3:32] Speaker 3: the numbers that were expected. So that divergence in the
[3:36] Speaker 3: strength of manufacturing and also the weakness in domestic demands
[3:41] Speaker 3: is showing up in the overall economic outlook.
[3:44] Speaker 2: So that said, it's still unclear in terms of whether
[3:47] Speaker 2: or not we can assume that the government is going
[3:49] Speaker 2: to apply more stimulus, right, I mean, because of the
[3:52] Speaker 2: tension that you just described, Yeah.
[3:55] Speaker 3: Exactly, And in fact, right now, the expectation is still
[4:00] Speaker 3: that there is going to be limited big stimulus coming
[4:03] Speaker 3: out from China, just because they're pretty much still on
[4:06] Speaker 3: track for their GDP target and the manufacturing side of
[4:11] Speaker 3: things still looking pretty strong. But if we do see
[4:16] Speaker 3: that this war continues to drag and that there might
[4:20] Speaker 3: be an impact on global demand and the global economic growth,
[4:25] Speaker 3: then that might start to impact more on the Chinese economy,
[4:29] Speaker 3: and that's when we might see a bit more stimulus
[4:32] Speaker 3: coming through. But overall, when you observe what happened in
[4:36] Speaker 3: the past few weeks during the war, China actually really
[4:39] Speaker 3: stood out as a resilient market compared to some of
[4:44] Speaker 3: the Asian markets.
[4:45] Speaker 2: So let's talk a little bit about tech, okay, because
[4:48] Speaker 2: we heard from TSMC, and the company booked a fifty
[4:52] Speaker 2: eight percent jump in profit, which is simply stunning. Obviously,
[4:56] Speaker 2: AI chip demand is a big part of that story,
[5:00] Speaker 2: and TSMC also issued a very upbeat out look for revenue.
[5:04] Speaker 2: But I was struck by the fact that here in
[5:06] Speaker 2: the US during New York trading, the ADRs were down
[5:09] Speaker 2: a little bit. So there seems to be a question
[5:12] Speaker 2: as it relates to gross margins, do I have that right?
[5:17] Speaker 3: Actually, growth margin also beat expectation, coming out at sixty
[5:22] Speaker 3: six percent jump. But as you mentioned, the interesting thing
[5:26] Speaker 3: is that we did see a bit of downside when
[5:29] Speaker 3: it comes to the stocks reaction. Part of it is
[5:33] Speaker 3: you can say a bit of profit taking, But overall
[5:36] Speaker 3: the numbers were actually pretty solid, pretty strong, And when
[5:40] Speaker 3: you look at just earnings estimate, and this morning we
[5:43] Speaker 3: did some calculation, the price target actually was revised upwards
[5:47] Speaker 3: by about six percent after the results. So the overall
[5:52] Speaker 3: the numbers are strong. AI demand is strong, and part
[5:55] Speaker 3: of that is already priced end. But going forward, the
[5:59] Speaker 3: question then is about first how long this work can
[6:03] Speaker 3: And yes, the market see as that we're reaching it
[6:06] Speaker 3: and at some point, but it's still unclear, right and
[6:10] Speaker 3: because we're sourcing quite some helium from the Middle East
[6:14] Speaker 3: and that's required for TSMC. So thus I believe that
[6:20] Speaker 3: during the earnings call, executives actually mentioned that we're still
[6:24] Speaker 3: going to see profit hit if this war continues to
[6:28] Speaker 3: drag for longer. So that's one.
[6:30] Speaker 2: Concern I guess I was referring to future gross margins
[6:34] Speaker 2: that may come under pressure if the company is forced
[6:36] Speaker 2: to spend a lot more to add capacity because of
[6:40] Speaker 2: this robust demand, that future gross margins may be under pressure.
[6:44] Speaker 2: That's what I took away from some of the price
[6:46] Speaker 2: section in New York and some of the commentary that
[6:48] Speaker 2: I was reading on on Bloomberg.
[6:50] Speaker 3: Would you agree with that we are seeing, yes, because
[6:53] Speaker 3: of these AI demand that's going to require TSMC to
[7:00] Speaker 3: And further so, the spending part, because KPEX expectation also
[7:05] Speaker 3: is actually on the higher end of the range that
[7:09] Speaker 3: they have for estimates, So that amount of spending, if
[7:13] Speaker 3: that's actually going to translate into the relevant revenues and profit,
[7:19] Speaker 3: that can still be a question that investors want to ask.
[7:23] Speaker 3: And yes, on top of that, you do still have
[7:25] Speaker 3: questions about if these the end customers KPEX can actually
[7:30] Speaker 3: also keep up with these private credit issue actually also
[7:35] Speaker 3: was something that people have been discussing. And if the
[7:37] Speaker 3: war continues to drag so those uncertainties might continue to
[7:41] Speaker 3: weigh on the stock price a little bit in terms
[7:44] Speaker 3: of some of the downside.
[7:45] Speaker 2: So I know you were in Japan last month for
[7:47] Speaker 2: a short spell, and you're going back, I understand. Later,
[7:51] Speaker 2: talk to me a little bit about the inflation story,
[7:53] Speaker 2: because next week we're going to get PPI and CPI
[7:57] Speaker 2: for Japan, the official numbers for the nation, not the
[7:59] Speaker 2: two Okyo figures, which sometimes are used as leading indicators.
[8:03] Speaker 2: And then in a few days after the inflation data
[8:07] Speaker 2: are released, it's the BOJ meeting. So talk to me
[8:09] Speaker 2: first about what you observe when you're there in terms
[8:13] Speaker 2: of the inflationary pressures.
[8:15] Speaker 3: Yeah, so inflationary pressure in Japan is really still a
[8:22] Speaker 3: true story that we've been observing. Prices are going up, however,
[8:27] Speaker 3: that is kind of a gradual move that we saw
[8:32] Speaker 3: in the past few months or in the recent past
[8:37] Speaker 3: year or so. And I think what's interesting is that
[8:41] Speaker 3: this time when I was back, I was talking to
[8:44] Speaker 3: some of my analyst friends about how this war can
[8:49] Speaker 3: potentially impact or not impact Japan what they're seeing, And
[8:54] Speaker 3: when I was talking to some of the retail analysts,
[8:56] Speaker 3: for example, when you think about the small jap these
[9:00] Speaker 3: characters that like san Rio, these you would think that
[9:03] Speaker 3: would not be impacted by the war at all. It's
[9:06] Speaker 3: so far away, but they are hearing concerns from the
[9:10] Speaker 3: companies when it comes to utility cost, when it comes
[9:13] Speaker 3: to the transport cost that's related to resource prices, and
[9:19] Speaker 3: these topics are definitely what the companies also have in mind.
[9:24] Speaker 3: But this time around, it's different from what we observed
[9:27] Speaker 3: back in during the Ukraine War, when that was when
[9:31] Speaker 3: Japan hadn't raised prices for decades and they were able
[9:36] Speaker 3: to charge higher prices talking about these cost driven input
[9:42] Speaker 3: driven costs. However, this time around, because they have already
[9:46] Speaker 3: raised prices in the past year or so, it's making
[9:50] Speaker 3: companies more difficult to convince their customers to pay for
[9:54] Speaker 3: higher prices. So that was quite interesting when I heard
[9:58] Speaker 3: that the Around War actually had some of these further
[10:02] Speaker 3: impact on very niche areas in like far away that
[10:09] Speaker 3: you wouldn't have imagined.
[10:10] Speaker 2: The other thing that I think of in terms of
[10:12] Speaker 2: what's been happening in the foreign exchange, the dollar has
[10:15] Speaker 2: been very strong, the yen obviously very weak, and that
[10:18] Speaker 2: is going to create a situation where you're importing inflation.
[10:22] Speaker 2: And I'm wondering if the only remedy to maybe correct
[10:26] Speaker 2: that relationship between the en and the dollar is for
[10:29] Speaker 2: the boj to raise interest rates, but right now doesn't
[10:32] Speaker 2: seem like that's really in the cards, so to speak.
[10:36] Speaker 3: That's actually a very interesting dynamic because up until two
[10:41] Speaker 3: weeks ago, the direction of markets was saying that this
[10:44] Speaker 3: is going to be make the Bank of Japan to
[10:47] Speaker 3: be more willing to raise rates exactly because of the
[10:50] Speaker 3: point that you mentioned, and also how the yen was
[10:53] Speaker 3: getting close to one hundred and sixty or so. However,
[10:56] Speaker 3: this week, in the past week, when I just took
[10:59] Speaker 3: a look at the numbers just now, the expectation for
[11:03] Speaker 3: the Bank of Japan to raise rates this month is
[11:06] Speaker 3: actually down to about thirty percent or so from some
[11:11] Speaker 3: fifty sixty percent from just last week, because the focus
[11:14] Speaker 3: right now seems to be around the uncertainty of the
[11:18] Speaker 3: Iran war instead of the potential concerns around how it
[11:24] Speaker 3: might impact the currency itself. So some of the strategies
[11:30] Speaker 3: that we spoke to say that usually under these kinds
[11:34] Speaker 3: of situations, the Bank of Japan take prefers to take
[11:38] Speaker 3: a step back and to observe first until more clarity.
[11:42] Speaker 3: So the possibility of a raid hike from the BOJ
[11:47] Speaker 3: interestingly has dropped this week, so it will be quite
[11:52] Speaker 3: interesting to observe what might come in the next couple
[11:55] Speaker 3: days and what with that would be speaking.
[11:58] Speaker 2: About Winnie, it's all it's a pleasure. Thank you so
[12:01] Speaker 2: very much. I hope you have an enjoyable and relaxing weekend.
[12:04] Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Winnie Sue, our Asia Equities reporter, joining from Hong
[12:08] Speaker 2: Kong here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome back to
[12:19] Speaker 2: the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Prisner. On Thursday, President
[12:22] Speaker 2: Trump said Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ten
[12:25] Speaker 2: day cease fire. The President said he held excellent conversations
[12:29] Speaker 2: with Lebanon's President Joseph and Num and Israeli Prime Minister
[12:32] Speaker 2: Benjamin Yahoo, and they both agreed to formally begin a
[12:36] Speaker 2: cease fire. And at the same time, President Trump also
[12:40] Speaker 2: said prospects for a deal between the US and Iran
[12:43] Speaker 2: are looking very good. And that's where we begin our
[12:46] Speaker 2: conversation with Will Toddman. Will is the chief of Staff
[12:49] Speaker 2: of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at CSIS. He
[12:54] Speaker 2: spoke with Bloomberg TV host Sherry On and Heidi Straub Watts.
[12:58] Speaker 1: I mean, we keep hearing from Policymake, especially citing the
[13:02] Speaker 1: US side Washington that the conflict will end very soon.
[13:06] Speaker 1: We hear it constantly from President Trump. We hear that,
[13:09] Speaker 1: according to him, Iran has agreed to some of the
[13:13] Speaker 1: terms that it's long resistant, including details about their nuclear
[13:17] Speaker 1: staff pile. Where do you sense the negotiations are here, Well.
[13:23] Speaker 4: Thank you so much for having me. I actually think
[13:26] Speaker 4: that we are seeing some signs that make a deal
[13:29] Speaker 4: more likely between Iran and the US. And those signs,
[13:34] Speaker 4: I would say, are the fact that the economic pressure
[13:37] Speaker 4: that the United States is now placing on Iran is
[13:40] Speaker 4: encouraging it to change its perception of its leverage at
[13:45] Speaker 4: this stage in the conflict. Just a week ago, I
[13:48] Speaker 4: think the Iranians felt very confident. They knew that they
[13:51] Speaker 4: were exerting a huge amount of pain on the global economy,
[13:55] Speaker 4: and I think they felt that they had essentially survived
[13:58] Speaker 4: this conflict and that it was in their interest to
[14:01] Speaker 4: drag it out longer. Now that the United States has
[14:04] Speaker 4: placed the blockade on maritime traffic from Iran, I think
[14:08] Speaker 4: that has changed the Iranians calculation and now they're probably
[14:12] Speaker 4: more willing to make concessions in the negotiations. And we
[14:16] Speaker 4: heard from President Trump today that he said there could
[14:19] Speaker 4: be face to face talks again this weekend. The other
[14:22] Speaker 4: factor I think that is promising is the ceasefire that
[14:26] Speaker 4: was announced today between Israel and Lebanon. And that is
[14:32] Speaker 4: important because the Iranians said that they wouldn't negotiate while
[14:35] Speaker 4: there was an ongoing conflict between Israel and Hazbullah and
[14:40] Speaker 4: an ongoing Israeli invasion into southern Lebanon. Now, if that
[14:44] Speaker 4: ceasefire proves to hold, I think it does support conditions
[14:47] Speaker 4: in which more serious talks can take place between the
[14:50] Speaker 4: US and Iran. So we could be getting closer to
[14:53] Speaker 4: an end of all.
[14:54] Speaker 1: Of this when it comes to uranium praxis. How also,
[14:59] Speaker 1: meaning is it that we haven't necessarily seen the who
[15:02] Speaker 1: these these rough shipments through the Bab Almandab straight so far,
[15:09] Speaker 1: because that was the whole point. After the closure of
[15:12] Speaker 1: the straight of Hoard moves the next thing was concerned
[15:15] Speaker 1: about that choke point as.
[15:17] Speaker 4: Well, exactly, and it's really interesting that the Huthis have
[15:21] Speaker 4: not seriously threatened shipping through Babel Amandab, this second strategic
[15:27] Speaker 4: choke point in the Middle East. As you said, I
[15:29] Speaker 4: think there are probably several reasons why they may not
[15:32] Speaker 4: have decided to enter this. It could be that they're
[15:35] Speaker 4: feeling too weak after consistent Israeli and US strikes against them,
[15:41] Speaker 4: and that they think that the retaliation by Israel and
[15:44] Speaker 4: the United States is something that they wouldn't be able
[15:46] Speaker 4: to survive. Or it could be that they have been
[15:49] Speaker 4: paid off by someone. Perhaps the Saudis have provided financial
[15:53] Speaker 4: incentives of some kind to discourage them from doing this,
[15:57] Speaker 4: because of course this would have diet effects on the
[16:00] Speaker 4: Saudi economy and Saudi Arabia's ability to export oil. Or
[16:05] Speaker 4: it could be that they were waiting until the moment
[16:08] Speaker 4: of maximum leverage. They wanted to wait until they thought
[16:11] Speaker 4: Iran was really facing an existential threat and then they
[16:15] Speaker 4: would play this card. And so perhaps they've determined that
[16:18] Speaker 4: Iran has not yet reached that stage. So I think
[16:22] Speaker 4: it's possible that they still do come into play if
[16:25] Speaker 4: the US continues to have maximalist aims in these talks.
[16:30] Speaker 4: That is certainly something that I would expect the Iranians
[16:32] Speaker 4: to continue to threaten. But it is interesting that they
[16:35] Speaker 4: have not taken part despite all of the pressure that
[16:40] Speaker 4: the US and Israel have placed on Iran up until
[16:42] Speaker 4: this point in the conflict on.
[16:45] Speaker 5: The topic of the proxies. Obviously, the latest development is
[16:47] Speaker 5: that tend a C is far being agreed upon by
[16:49] Speaker 5: Lebanon and Israel. How much weight do you give to
[16:53] Speaker 5: this deal given that we know that Hasbla won't at
[16:55] Speaker 5: the table, when we know that some of the sticking
[16:57] Speaker 5: points such as disarmament are not likely to be agreed
[17:00] Speaker 5: upon by Hesbalan. Do you think that it's interesting that
[17:04] Speaker 5: this almost seems to be taking place on a separate
[17:06] Speaker 5: track to the main negotiations.
[17:10] Speaker 4: Yeah, it is interesting. I think in the short term
[17:12] Speaker 4: a lot of the different parties can claim this as
[17:15] Speaker 4: a kind of success. For the Israelis, they didn't want
[17:19] Speaker 4: to see a full cease fire because they want to
[17:21] Speaker 4: continue their ability to strike Hesbola and ultimately to try
[17:25] Speaker 4: to defeat Hesbola. They have kept their ability to stay
[17:29] Speaker 4: in southern Lebanon, and they also have a clause in
[17:32] Speaker 4: the agreement that says that they can continue to act
[17:34] Speaker 4: in self defense, and so I think that gives them
[17:37] Speaker 4: quite a lot of latitude to continue their military operations.
[17:40] Speaker 4: This is something they've done after previous these fires have
[17:43] Speaker 4: been announced with Hesbolla. But for the Lebanese government. This
[17:47] Speaker 4: is also an important victory. It gives some sense of
[17:50] Speaker 4: reprieve to Lebanese citizens, particularly those who have been displaced
[17:54] Speaker 4: from their homes. More than a million have been displaced
[17:57] Speaker 4: up until this point, but ten days is not enough
[18:01] Speaker 4: to work through all of the major issues that still exist.
[18:05] Speaker 4: Disarming has Bola is something that the Lebanese government has
[18:08] Speaker 4: been trying to do for over a year. It's had
[18:10] Speaker 4: it as an official government policy for the first time,
[18:14] Speaker 4: but it is extremely difficult for them to actually achieve this,
[18:18] Speaker 4: particularly if they don't receive more international support and financial
[18:23] Speaker 4: support to be able to do that. So I think
[18:26] Speaker 4: what this ceasefire does is it is a short term reprieve.
[18:31] Speaker 4: It also could potentially allow for these direct talks between
[18:35] Speaker 4: the Lebanese leaders and Prime Minister NETANYAHUU of Israel at
[18:40] Speaker 4: the White House. This is something that President Trump has
[18:43] Speaker 4: said is going to happen next week. That in itself
[18:47] Speaker 4: would be a quite major concession from the Lebanese government,
[18:50] Speaker 4: but it may be enough to convince the Israelis that
[18:53] Speaker 4: they are serious enough about the task of disarming has
[18:56] Speaker 4: Bola and buy them some more time to make to
[19:01] Speaker 4: try to get more international support for their efforts to
[19:04] Speaker 4: actually advance that process.
[19:08] Speaker 5: A short term pause in fighting in the region is
[19:10] Speaker 5: one thing, but how much in the longer term has
[19:13] Speaker 5: this operation added to further in stability in the region,
[19:17] Speaker 5: because it doesn't seem both with the beginning of this operation,
[19:22] Speaker 5: this war and how much sort of planning has been
[19:24] Speaker 5: done strategically diplomatically when it comes to humanitarian issues that
[19:30] Speaker 5: not a lot has gone into that side. Do you
[19:32] Speaker 5: think overall the region is worse off in terms of
[19:36] Speaker 5: being a goal of longer lasting piece.
[19:40] Speaker 4: The region is absolutely worse off. I think we use
[19:44] Speaker 4: the word unprecedented too many times as analysts, but so
[19:47] Speaker 4: many elements of what we have seen over the past
[19:51] Speaker 4: month and a half have been unprecedented. The attacks on
[19:56] Speaker 4: critical infrastructure, on airports, on salination plants, on AI data centers,
[20:04] Speaker 4: all of these have set a terrible precedent for the future,
[20:08] Speaker 4: and I think that is something that is going to
[20:11] Speaker 4: continue to plague particularly Arab Gulf states as they try
[20:14] Speaker 4: to rebuild a sense of stability and a sense of
[20:18] Speaker 4: trust from international investors that they know that this is
[20:23] Speaker 4: a part of the world that is very much open
[20:25] Speaker 4: for business going forward. That's going to be a difficult
[20:28] Speaker 4: task for them to do. On the humanitarian side, I
[20:31] Speaker 4: think a lot of the effects and the consequences of
[20:35] Speaker 4: this conflict will be felt in the longer term. Certainly,
[20:38] Speaker 4: already we are seeing exacerbating humanitarian crises. I mentioned more
[20:43] Speaker 4: than a million people displaced in Lebanon, more than three
[20:46] Speaker 4: million people displaced in Iran. But when we talk about
[20:49] Speaker 4: food insecurity and the disruption to fertilizers, for example, the
[20:54] Speaker 4: effects of that are going to be felt six months
[20:57] Speaker 4: even a year down the line, and the food insecurity
[21:01] Speaker 4: is expected to spike significantly. And this is something that
[21:05] Speaker 4: there was not a plan in place to deal with
[21:08] Speaker 4: in advance of this conflict. It seems that the US
[21:11] Speaker 4: government had not come up with a humanitarian plan to
[21:15] Speaker 4: mitigate these consequences, and so I think that is something
[21:19] Speaker 4: that is going to play a heavy cost on the
[21:21] Speaker 4: region going forward, and not just the Middle East, but
[21:24] Speaker 4: lower income and import dependent countries around the world will
[21:30] Speaker 4: continue to suffer for some time, even if there is
[21:33] Speaker 4: actually a deal announced in Islamabad between the US and
[21:37] Speaker 4: Iran or somewhere else.
[21:39] Speaker 2: That was Will Todman, chief of Staff of the Geopolitics
[21:42] Speaker 2: and Foreign Policy Department, at csis speaking with Bloomberg TV
[21:47] Speaker 2: host Heidi Stroud, Watts and Cherry On bringing you their
[21:50] Speaker 2: conversation here on the Daybreak Asia Podcast. Thanks for listening
[21:56] Speaker 2: to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast.
[22:01] Speaker 2: Each weekday, we look at the story shaping markets, finance,
[22:04] Speaker 2: and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You can find us
[22:08] Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere
[22:12] Speaker 2: else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for insight on
[22:15] Speaker 2: the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia.
[22:19] Speaker 2: I'm Doug Prisoner and this is Bloomberg

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