# Stocks Stay Range-Bound, Traders and Refiners Eye Venezuelan Oil

An episode of [Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1663863437), 8 Jan 2026, 17 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/58e85be7-dbb5-4043-afed-af80014dc0b3/e1a33bc0-fe1b-4efa-a701-b3cc00224f3a/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=27143354-63aa-4ac5-965d-af80014dc0d3

Asian stocks edged marginally lower as investors largely stayed on the sidelines amid a lack of fresh catalysts ahead of key US economic data. Treasuries held their gains. In Asia, Samsung was one of the first major companies to report preliminary earnings. For more on what is moving the markets, we turn to Paul Dobson, Bloomberg's Executive Editor for Asia Markets. Plus - the US government is taking control of Venezuelan crude, which could reinvigorate flows of Venezuelan crude to American refineries after years of sanctions. The return of Venezuelan barrels to US buyers could mark one of the most significant shifts in global energy markets in recent years, and has already sent Canadian crude prices plunging. For more on the long term outlook in oil, we heard from Vandana Hari, Founder of Vanda Insights. She spoke to Bloomberg's Paul Allen and Avril Hong on the Asia Trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
[0:11] Speaker 2: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast time Doug Prisoner. We
[0:14] Speaker 2: begin today with geopolitical risk. Clearly they are not in
[0:17] Speaker 2: short supply. We have the situation in Venezuela and how
[0:21] Speaker 2: oil markets have been impacted. Earlier, US forces seized a
[0:25] Speaker 2: Russian flagged oil tanker in the North Atlantic after a
[0:28] Speaker 2: weeks long pursuit across the Atlantic Ocean, and a second
[0:32] Speaker 2: vessel was apprehended near the Caribbean Sea. And then there's
[0:36] Speaker 2: Greenland and President Trump insisting the US needs the island
[0:40] Speaker 2: for security reasons since Russia and China have been increasing
[0:44] Speaker 2: military activities nearby. And let's not forget Beijing turning up
[0:48] Speaker 2: the heat on Tokyo. Now the Chinese have banned all
[0:51] Speaker 2: so called dual use shipments for military use. Let's bring
[0:55] Speaker 2: in Bloomberg's Paul Dobson. He is Executive editor for Asia Markets.
[1:00] Speaker 2: Paul joins from our studios in Singapore. I'd like to begin,
[1:03] Speaker 2: Paul by looking at the Chinese threat on tighter controls
[1:07] Speaker 2: for the exports of rare earths to Japan. Clearly this
[1:11] Speaker 2: would be a major negative for the Japanese auto sector.
[1:15] Speaker 3: Yeah, Hi there, Doug. It really depends how China choose
[1:17] Speaker 3: is to use these measures. But yes, there are certainly
[1:21] Speaker 3: parts of the Japanese supply chain that are pretty heavily
[1:25] Speaker 3: exposed to imports from China and make use of them.
[1:31] Speaker 3: I think that the jury is out on what China
[1:34] Speaker 3: actually intends to do here. It's deliberately being quite opaque,
[1:39] Speaker 3: I think, in terms of what the pronouncement is and
[1:41] Speaker 3: what the measures might look like, and that gives Japan
[1:44] Speaker 3: some room to try to, you know, de escalate the
[1:48] Speaker 3: situation if it wants to. That's not what we've seen
[1:51] Speaker 3: so far from Japan. They seem to have dug in
[1:53] Speaker 3: quite hard as well, and there are countermeasures that Japan
[1:56] Speaker 3: could take. By the way, there would also be quite
[2:00] Speaker 3: harmful for the Chinese supply chains. So it's not out
[2:04] Speaker 3: of the realms of possibility that this could continue to escalate,
[2:08] Speaker 3: and at least in the short term, that would presumably
[2:11] Speaker 3: quite be quite a negative for both nations markets. But
[2:14] Speaker 3: on the other hand, there is definitely some open ground
[2:18] Speaker 3: for and off ramp to be found if they if
[2:20] Speaker 3: they want to find that and look for it.
[2:22] Speaker 2: We had President Trump saying today that he will request
[2:25] Speaker 2: an increase in the US military budget by five hundred
[2:29] Speaker 2: million dollars. He went on to say the increase is
[2:32] Speaker 2: necessary in very troubled and dangerous times to build a
[2:36] Speaker 2: in his words, dream military. But I'm wondering whether or
[2:39] Speaker 2: not we may see kind of commensurate moves on the
[2:43] Speaker 2: part of certain jurisdictions in Asia to kind of respond
[2:47] Speaker 2: in kind. Is that possible and could that be reflected
[2:49] Speaker 2: in market prices for some defense contractors.
[2:53] Speaker 3: Yeah, and already has been all the way through last year.
[2:55] Speaker 3: You know, some of the defense names in Korea, for example,
[2:59] Speaker 3: and also in Japan have really been performing exceptionally strongly,
[3:03] Speaker 3: and you know, for the first time really Japan is
[3:05] Speaker 3: sort of really increasing its budget spend on defense, and
[3:09] Speaker 3: I'm sure that you will see more of that everywhere.
[3:12] Speaker 3: I think, you know, even countries that haven't really had
[3:15] Speaker 3: to think about it before can see that their airports
[3:17] Speaker 3: might suddenly be exposed and well need to put different
[3:20] Speaker 3: defensive measures in place as a result. So those defense
[3:23] Speaker 3: companies do look like they're in you know, a good
[3:27] Speaker 3: spot in terms of their earnings potential. Not that it's
[3:31] Speaker 3: a particularly nice thing to be talking about, but definitely
[3:34] Speaker 3: we have that and also the scope for that to
[3:37] Speaker 3: drive more innovation and more creativity and therefore for new
[3:40] Speaker 3: products to emerge that would be also interesting for investors.
[3:46] Speaker 2: I have to ask you about the Samsung results, which
[3:48] Speaker 2: seem to beat estimates by a wide margin, both in
[3:52] Speaker 2: terms of operating profit and revenue. What are we seeing
[3:56] Speaker 2: in terms of what the analyst community is saying and
[3:59] Speaker 2: how the market is responded.
[4:00] Speaker 3: I'm still waiting for more details on it, but the
[4:03] Speaker 3: initial market reaction was actually a little bit negative despite
[4:07] Speaker 3: the beats on the top line that were announced. But
[4:10] Speaker 3: Samsung has had a real roaring start to this year.
[4:13] Speaker 3: We had the CEO saying a few days ago, Samsung
[4:16] Speaker 3: is back. That was the quote, and investors seemed to
[4:19] Speaker 3: like that and piled onto it. I think it was
[4:20] Speaker 3: up seven or eight percent in a single day. And
[4:22] Speaker 3: this is like one of the biggest companies not just
[4:25] Speaker 3: in Careers Index, but in the Asia wide index as well,
[4:28] Speaker 3: so it really matters a great deal. So the fact
[4:30] Speaker 3: that it's already had that huge gain already this year,
[4:34] Speaker 3: on top of big gains last year as well, does
[4:38] Speaker 3: mean that the bar is very high. In order to
[4:41] Speaker 3: impress investors at the current valuations and for the rally
[4:44] Speaker 3: to continue to go higher. That said, I do you
[4:46] Speaker 3: think you know that the memory chip pricing has definitely
[4:50] Speaker 3: been lifting extremely aggressive recently, and the technology companies in
[4:54] Speaker 3: general across North Asia are still very much in favor,
[4:57] Speaker 3: just like you see with the mag seven in the US.
[5:00] Speaker 2: So we're in the first full trading week of the
[5:02] Speaker 2: new year and we have a flood of global corporate
[5:05] Speaker 2: bond issuance happening this week. Is that a surprise to
[5:08] Speaker 2: you at all?
[5:09] Speaker 3: Not a surprise. It's always busiest at the side of
[5:12] Speaker 3: the new year, but it's hefty. It's a record. And
[5:16] Speaker 3: what I think is perhaps interesting, if not hugely surprising,
[5:20] Speaker 3: is the fact that the demand is just getting taken
[5:23] Speaker 3: or all of this supply is getting taken down by
[5:25] Speaker 3: the demand, with very few problems at all. New issuance
[5:28] Speaker 3: concession seem extremely low, and so it tells you that
[5:31] Speaker 3: there's really hunger out there for corporate bond issuance. People
[5:35] Speaker 3: want that income, they want the steady revenue that they
[5:38] Speaker 3: can gain. They don't see any particularly big credit worries
[5:41] Speaker 3: on the horizon, and that's good news for the global economy.
[5:44] Speaker 3: Right If funding conditions are loose or easy, companies can
[5:48] Speaker 3: raise cash can put it to work, including the big
[5:50] Speaker 3: technology companies. We saw Broadcom in the US already issuing
[5:54] Speaker 3: as well. Then that speaks to, you know, money flowing
[5:58] Speaker 3: around the economy that can help to continue to fuel
[6:01] Speaker 3: what's looking like a pretty decent global growth backdrop at
[6:04] Speaker 3: the moment.
[6:05] Speaker 2: What are you hearing about the overall outlook for Asian
[6:08] Speaker 2: equity markets in the year ahead.
[6:11] Speaker 3: I'm hearing lots of positive commentary about emerging markets and
[6:15] Speaker 3: about Asia as well. So for example, yesterday I was
[6:18] Speaker 3: reading a note from Goldman Sachs and they were talking
[6:20] Speaker 3: about all these different prongs that they see that are
[6:23] Speaker 3: favorable for They were singling out North Asia and India
[6:26] Speaker 3: as their picks, but they were saying, you know, first
[6:28] Speaker 3: of all, you have the technology story, that AI story,
[6:31] Speaker 3: and that is still something that has plenty of momentum. Yes,
[6:34] Speaker 3: there are evaluation concerns, but there are also all these
[6:37] Speaker 3: other companies across the supply chain that are emerging that
[6:40] Speaker 3: look like they have plenty of potential. So they like that.
[6:44] Speaker 3: They like the favorable economic and macro environment that I
[6:48] Speaker 3: was just talking about. You know, don't forget okay, Trump
[6:50] Speaker 3: is raising to your political risk, but he's also keeping
[6:52] Speaker 3: down oil prices and that's also an important input into
[6:55] Speaker 3: global funding conditions. And then you have the idea that
[6:58] Speaker 3: in geesst rates are going to come low again this
[7:00] Speaker 3: year most likely. In any case, if you look at
[7:03] Speaker 3: the FED dot plot for example, they're pricing it, or
[7:05] Speaker 3: the policymakers are telling us they're planning to cut interest
[7:08] Speaker 3: rates more, maybe not immediately, but down the path, and
[7:11] Speaker 3: that would allow for Asian central banks also to lose
[7:13] Speaker 3: monetary policy if needs be. And then they talk about
[7:17] Speaker 3: on the political side or the fiscal side. You know,
[7:19] Speaker 3: governments also have the back of the companies. We talked
[7:24] Speaker 3: about defense spending. It's not just that in Japan there's
[7:26] Speaker 3: more stimulus measures. In China, there's going to be efforts
[7:29] Speaker 3: to continue to fuel growth as well. So all of
[7:32] Speaker 3: that adds up to what the goldmin Sex analysts was saying,
[7:35] Speaker 3: and what a lot of other names that I've been
[7:36] Speaker 3: talking to over the past few days are saying is
[7:39] Speaker 3: a very positive overall backdrop for Asian equities.
[7:42] Speaker 2: So as you know, this week we have two key
[7:44] Speaker 2: events from markets stateside. We have the employment report, for
[7:47] Speaker 2: December that's due on Friday, and the Supreme Court may,
[7:51] Speaker 2: and I stress may issue an opinion on the legality
[7:55] Speaker 2: of President Trump's global tariffs. What is the conversation happening
[7:59] Speaker 2: in Asia around the tariff story and the possibility that
[8:02] Speaker 2: these tariffs may be illegal.
[8:05] Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a great question and one that we have
[8:09] Speaker 3: to ask all of the people that we're speaking to
[8:11] Speaker 3: as well. But I do think that actually the consensus
[8:14] Speaker 3: is that for the most part across Asia, the trade
[8:17] Speaker 3: deals that are already in place and have been agreed
[8:20] Speaker 3: with Trump are most likely accepted now, and so therefore
[8:24] Speaker 3: we'll stay in place. I guess people would expect that
[8:27] Speaker 3: even if the tariffs as they are now outlawed by
[8:30] Speaker 3: the high courts, in time, the Trump administration will find
[8:34] Speaker 3: a different way to put exactly the same tariffs in place.
[8:36] Speaker 3: And so if you've already got your trade deal and
[8:38] Speaker 3: you think that's probably as good as you're going to
[8:39] Speaker 3: get in any case them, you know, go along with
[8:42] Speaker 3: it rather than rocking the boat. Seems to be the consensus.
[8:45] Speaker 3: And as I said, you know, experts are holding up
[8:47] Speaker 3: in the economy is looking reasonably strong. For all that
[8:50] Speaker 3: we have that I do think that it will create volatility.
[8:53] Speaker 3: I do think that Monday morning would be a rocky
[8:54] Speaker 3: ride for US if we do get a repeal of
[8:58] Speaker 3: the tariffs, and if we get some very surprising payrolls
[9:02] Speaker 3: number as well, you know, that could add to the equation.
[9:04] Speaker 3: And of course Asia is always the first to react.
[9:06] Speaker 3: So we'll be here nice and nerdy looking forwards to
[9:09] Speaker 3: what we get on Monday morning.
[9:10] Speaker 2: All right, we look forward to it. Paul, Thank you
[9:12] Speaker 2: so very much. Bloomberg's Paul Dobson. He is executive editor
[9:15] Speaker 2: for Asia Markets. Joining from Singapore here on the Daybreak
[9:18] Speaker 2: Asia podcast. Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm
[9:29] Speaker 2: Derek Krisner. Certainly was a lot more news from the
[9:32] Speaker 2: oil patch in the last session. The Trump administration said
[9:35] Speaker 2: the US will seek to control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely.
[9:40] Speaker 2: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told a conference sponsored by
[9:44] Speaker 2: Goldman Sachs sales would initially come from crude held in
[9:48] Speaker 2: storage and later from fresh Venezuelan oil production. Now, the
[9:52] Speaker 2: White House indicated the US has already begun marketing this
[9:55] Speaker 2: crude oil. And at the same time, we are being
[9:58] Speaker 2: told that Chevron is in talks with the US on
[10:01] Speaker 2: expanding its license in Venezuela. We got reaction from Vondana Harri.
[10:06] Speaker 2: She is founder and CEO of Vanda Insights. She spoke
[10:09] Speaker 2: to Bloomberg TV host Paul Allen and Avril hon and
[10:13] Speaker 2: the conversation began with Vondana being asked about her outlook
[10:17] Speaker 2: for oil.
[10:18] Speaker 4: There's a few time related narratives around the oil market.
[10:21] Speaker 4: At the moment, I mean, in the short term we're
[10:23] Speaker 4: back pretty much to where we were before the US
[10:26] Speaker 4: operation in Venezuela. But longer term, in Venezuela supplies so
[10:31] Speaker 4: little at the moment, but could supply so much. But
[10:34] Speaker 4: with oil prices so depressed right now, how viable is
[10:37] Speaker 4: more investment in Venezuela.
[10:40] Speaker 1: Good morning, Paul. So amongst all the hurdles that are
[10:43] Speaker 1: stacked up for Trump's ambition of US companies tapping the
[10:48] Speaker 1: three hundred odd billion barrels of Venezuelan reserves, you just
[10:52] Speaker 1: mentioned yet another one, which is the outlook for oil prices.
[10:56] Speaker 1: And again here we are not just talking about twenty six,
[11:00] Speaker 1: twenty seven for that matter, but longer term, because let
[11:04] Speaker 1: us remember tapping these reserves and rehabilitating the overground infrastructure
[11:09] Speaker 1: that is needed to support the movement of that oil
[11:12] Speaker 1: is going to take years, if not decades. So, assuming
[11:17] Speaker 1: that global oil demand is going to continue, growth is
[11:21] Speaker 1: going to continue decelerating, which means oil prices are probably
[11:25] Speaker 1: going to continue softening. You know, we may not return
[11:28] Speaker 1: to eighty and ninety dollars a barrel kind of range
[11:32] Speaker 1: on a sustained basis. That will be yet another question
[11:36] Speaker 1: amongst everything else, which is political stability for oil companies
[11:40] Speaker 1: before deciding to make those kind of investments or billions
[11:44] Speaker 1: of dollars in Venezuela.
[11:46] Speaker 4: Yeah, we do need to talk about the everything else
[11:48] Speaker 4: as well, because as you mentioned, there are so many
[11:51] Speaker 4: factors here. If you were an oil major like a
[11:54] Speaker 4: Chevron or Conico or Exon, and you'd have a lot
[11:57] Speaker 4: of questions around security, future, political stability, and of course
[12:01] Speaker 4: Venezuela has form when it comes to nationalizing oil assets.
[12:06] Speaker 1: Yeah, not only that, Paul, but also I couldn't look
[12:10] Speaker 1: to anybody to authoritatively be able to tell me or
[12:14] Speaker 1: guarantee that kind of security and stability. So I could
[12:17] Speaker 1: be talking to, of course President Trump and and the
[12:21] Speaker 1: core team that is overseeing the transition in Venezuela. I
[12:24] Speaker 1: could talk to the Energy Secretary Chris right, but really,
[12:28] Speaker 1: who has the crystal ball today to be able to
[12:31] Speaker 1: guarantee me, as a US major, that this is exactly
[12:34] Speaker 1: how things are going to play out in Caracas. How
[12:37] Speaker 1: long the transition will take, who will be the new leader,
[12:40] Speaker 1: how will the new government operate, how will it operate,
[12:45] Speaker 1: and under whose influence after Trump is gone from the
[12:49] Speaker 1: White House? Right, So, all of these questions are definitely
[12:53] Speaker 1: going to be swirling in the minds of the executives
[12:56] Speaker 1: of the oil companies. And then again, let us not
[13:00] Speaker 1: get it's billions of dollars. It's not a small investment.
[13:03] Speaker 1: So again I think we should differentiate here. If talking
[13:06] Speaker 1: about just for instance, Chevron, which is already in the country,
[13:09] Speaker 1: to go in and maybe do a little bit of
[13:11] Speaker 1: you know, moderate modest investments and just get some things
[13:16] Speaker 1: back in order to be able to exploit the current
[13:19] Speaker 1: maximum production potential, that's one thing. But saying that, you know,
[13:23] Speaker 1: putting tens of billions of dollars at a minimum to
[13:27] Speaker 1: tap those three hundred billion barrels of reserves is absolutely
[13:30] Speaker 1: another question.
[13:33] Speaker 5: Okay, So that's on the US side of things. Also,
[13:37] Speaker 5: worth remembering, as you well know, Vanna, how China was
[13:42] Speaker 5: the big market for Venezuelan coude. Where does this leave
[13:46] Speaker 5: it in terms of China procuring supplies of energy.
[13:53] Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think the re routing and reshuffling of
[13:57] Speaker 1: when oil flows is probably going to be a key
[14:01] Speaker 1: theme in the medium term, and one of the biggest
[14:05] Speaker 1: affected parties as a result of that is definitely going
[14:08] Speaker 1: to be China. So, as we know, China was taking
[14:10] Speaker 1: the lion's share of venezuel in crude exports close to
[14:15] Speaker 1: six to seven hundred thousand battles per day at heavily
[14:18] Speaker 1: discounted prices, So this was benefiting the small independent players
[14:24] Speaker 1: in China, often known as teapots, who operate on very
[14:27] Speaker 1: thin margins. They're very reliant on discounted crude from places
[14:31] Speaker 1: like Venezuela, Iran and more lately Russia as well. They
[14:36] Speaker 1: are going to be on the losing side. I mean,
[14:38] Speaker 1: even in the near term. We can already see the
[14:43] Speaker 1: US is prohibiting or blocking ships from taking oil to China.
[14:47] Speaker 1: So China has already been deprived of that discounted oil
[14:50] Speaker 1: that it has depended on for the past at least
[14:53] Speaker 1: five to six years since the first Trump terms. Sanctions
[14:57] Speaker 1: on Venezuela to some extent will be impacted as well.
[15:01] Speaker 1: If the US ends up taking a lot of the
[15:03] Speaker 1: Venezuelan crude, which is my base case at least for
[15:06] Speaker 1: the foreseeable future, Canadian crude will need to be backed
[15:10] Speaker 1: out and potentially seek home in Asia again where China
[15:16] Speaker 1: is the main buyer. Probably, but then for China doesn't
[15:20] Speaker 1: get the Canadian extra Canadian crued at the same price
[15:22] Speaker 1: as the discounted Venezuelan and probably not so you know,
[15:26] Speaker 1: the Chinese teapotrofilals especially are looking at very the further
[15:29] Speaker 1: thinning of their margins.
[15:32] Speaker 5: At the same time, there is a sense that what's
[15:35] Speaker 5: happened in Venezuela is setting a pretty dangerous president, especially
[15:41] Speaker 5: if the US is going after natural resources in this manner.
[15:44] Speaker 5: What is your sense of where my potentially set its
[15:47] Speaker 5: sights next.
[15:51] Speaker 1: Anybody's guess, right though. There's of course a couple of
[15:54] Speaker 1: names which are being discussed more prominently, Greenland being one
[16:00] Speaker 1: we'll hopefully not rattle the oil markets. But the other
[16:04] Speaker 1: one is Iran. Not the same kind of intentions, but
[16:08] Speaker 1: we do know we have seen in the past few weeks,
[16:11] Speaker 1: especially Trump amp up his rhetoric against the government in Tehran,
[16:17] Speaker 1: and that is a different ball game altogether. So if
[16:20] Speaker 1: we see renewed tensions in the Gulf in the Middle
[16:27] Speaker 1: East between Israel and US on the one side, and
[16:30] Speaker 1: Iran on the other side, we could be in for
[16:33] Speaker 1: a very very geopolitically driven risk premium driven oil markets
[16:38] Speaker 1: going into twenty twenty six.
[16:40] Speaker 2: That was von Donah Harri, founder and CEO of Vanda Insight,
[16:44] Speaker 2: speaking with Bloomberg TV host Paul Allen and April Hong
[16:48] Speaker 2: here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Thanks for listening to
[16:52] Speaker 2: today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday,
[16:57] Speaker 2: we look at the story shaping markets, find nance and
[17:00] Speaker 2: geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You can find us on Apple, Spotify,
[17:05] Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen.
[17:09] Speaker 2: Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves
[17:12] Speaker 2: from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Chrisner
[17:16] Speaker 2: and this is Bloomberg

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