# Traders Look Ahead to Fed, Shipping Outlook Ahead of Hormuz Reopening

An episode of [Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1663863437), 17 Jun 2026, 20 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/58e85be7-dbb5-4043-afed-af80014dc0b3/9a0c49a3-c70f-43bb-9332-b46c0034c268/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=27143354-63aa-4ac5-965d-af80014dc0d3

Business and finance news from the Asia-Pacific. Bonds advanced ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, as a slide in oil prices to a three-month low helped ease concerns of a renewed inflation shock. Investors are also reassessing the global interest-rate outlook as the Fed meets for the first time under Chairman Kevin Warsh, with some expecting no changes this week and a shift in how the Fed communicates with markets. We speak to David Finnerty, Bloomberg's FX and Rates Strategist. Plus - the US and Iran are preparing to formally sign an interim peace deal that's left both sides claiming victory, with details of the accord still emerging and leaving many European governments, energy investors and shipping companies with reservations about how fast the Strait of Hormuz can return to pre-war conditions. Bloomberg TV Hosts Haidi Stroud-Watts and Shery Ahn spoke to Parash Jain, HSBC Global Head of Transport and Logistics Research about his outlook on shipping ahead of Hormuz reopening. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
[0:10] Speaker 2: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm deg Krisner. We're
[0:13] Speaker 2: learning some more about the memorandum of understanding between the
[0:16] Speaker 2: US and Iran. As a part of this agreement, Iran
[0:19] Speaker 2: is set to receive broad financial incentives that would include
[0:23] Speaker 2: the right to sell oil immediately, and Iran will also
[0:27] Speaker 2: be able to tap a three hundred billion dollar development
[0:30] Speaker 2: fund and eventually get access to those frozen assets. Now,
[0:34] Speaker 2: we had crude oil down in New York trading with
[0:36] Speaker 2: WTI off about five point eight percent to just above
[0:40] Speaker 2: seventy six dollars. Now, in terms of the equity market
[0:43] Speaker 2: in the States, we saw a rotation away from chip stocks,
[0:46] Speaker 2: away from the software firms, and into some of those
[0:50] Speaker 2: economically sensitive issues. The Doubt did manage a fresh record
[0:53] Speaker 2: to fifty one nine hundred ninety nine, but declines for
[0:57] Speaker 2: both the S and P and the Nasdaq composite. For
[1:00] Speaker 2: a closer look at the price action, let's bring in
[1:02] Speaker 2: Bloomberg strategist David Finnerity David joining from our studios in Singapore.
[1:07] Speaker 2: Thank you for being here. Can you give me a
[1:09] Speaker 2: sense of this rotation that we're seeing away from tech
[1:12] Speaker 2: and into some of those economically sensitive names. I think
[1:16] Speaker 2: the other day we saw a very similar move in
[1:18] Speaker 2: the South Korean market.
[1:20] Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean there's certainly the AI has obviously been
[1:22] Speaker 3: the love of the years, shall we say, at some
[1:26] Speaker 3: point some people take profits off where they think it's
[1:30] Speaker 3: got maybe a bit overextended. So I think you're seeing
[1:32] Speaker 3: what is some diversification. I think maybe speed the ways
[1:36] Speaker 3: to put it. I think, particularly with a deal of
[1:39] Speaker 3: RUN potentially looks like it's going to be signed or
[1:42] Speaker 3: has been signed and officially be signed on Friday. So
[1:45] Speaker 3: if we take us RAN, we're sort of off the table.
[1:48] Speaker 3: Is temporarily I say temporarily because still negotiations on go.
[1:52] Speaker 3: But then I think the markets can return to fundamentals
[1:55] Speaker 3: a bit more, and so I think that's why you'll
[1:58] Speaker 3: see more interest in these other areas. Again, we need
[2:00] Speaker 3: to get the Fed of Reserve and some other central
[2:02] Speaker 3: banks out of the way first, but I certainly think
[2:05] Speaker 3: the market has looking for other areas or potential growth
[2:09] Speaker 3: besides just AI.
[2:10] Speaker 2: So let's talk about the FED meeting. We have got
[2:12] Speaker 2: that decision Wednesday afternoon. No change in policy is expected.
[2:16] Speaker 2: We will likely get the first real sign of how
[2:20] Speaker 2: cher Kevin warsh intends to communicate, and I think that
[2:24] Speaker 2: we can agree. Since the eight financial crisis, the FED
[2:27] Speaker 2: has been embracing this forward guidance, this notion of including
[2:32] Speaker 2: forecast and the famous dot plot kind of giving us
[2:36] Speaker 2: an indication as to whether or where policy makercy rates heading.
[2:41] Speaker 2: Warsh Is argued recently that the FED does too much
[2:44] Speaker 2: in the way of communication, and I think this is
[2:47] Speaker 2: going to be maybe a little bit of a struggle
[2:49] Speaker 2: for a market that's become conditioned to clear messages from
[2:54] Speaker 2: the FED. Am I wrong in that?
[2:56] Speaker 4: Well?
[2:56] Speaker 3: I think the market is always going to decipher whatever
[3:00] Speaker 3: any FED member says. So, yes, you can argue sometimes
[3:03] Speaker 3: there's too much communication, but you know, if you dial
[3:06] Speaker 3: it back, the market goes, well, we're just going to
[3:08] Speaker 3: literally overanalyze whatever you do give us. So I think
[3:11] Speaker 3: it's going to be interesting viewpoints. As meeting obviously said
[3:15] Speaker 3: what is the tone he strikes? What is the regime change?
[3:20] Speaker 3: She's indicated? Will he give us a bit more information
[3:22] Speaker 3: of what exactly he means by that? How much communication
[3:26] Speaker 3: does he intend to give? Is the dot plot going
[3:29] Speaker 3: to survive? How does the dot plot do today? In
[3:32] Speaker 3: terms of you know, is how many rate hikes or
[3:36] Speaker 3: is there no rate hikes priced in? You know? How
[3:39] Speaker 3: aggressive is the market member the swaps market's basically looking
[3:43] Speaker 3: for about eight percent chance of a rate hike this year.
[3:46] Speaker 3: Does the dot plot support that? Does it?
[3:48] Speaker 4: Not?
[3:48] Speaker 3: So? And also I think one other thing I think
[3:51] Speaker 3: to take out from a dot plot is it will
[3:53] Speaker 3: show how divergence the views are at the moment. And
[3:57] Speaker 3: we do know that even on fed pal's last meeting
[4:01] Speaker 3: there was divergent views. They couldn't quite everyone agree on
[4:03] Speaker 3: the consensus of the wording. And it came out after
[4:06] Speaker 3: that that lot more people were saying that the risks
[4:08] Speaker 3: of a cut have diminished quite a lot. So we're
[4:12] Speaker 3: going to get you an idea from the top flop
[4:14] Speaker 3: how diversity these views. And I think that's importance going forward.
[4:17] Speaker 3: If you give us less information or less guidance, then
[4:21] Speaker 3: the market will just go, Okay, We're going to work
[4:22] Speaker 3: with whatever you give us. And that means there's still
[4:24] Speaker 3: be FED speakers. We're going to look at every FED
[4:27] Speaker 3: speaker once they say, we're going to overanalyze that and
[4:29] Speaker 3: blah blah blah. So it does create the chance of
[4:33] Speaker 3: more volatility, which for market participants to say, hey, you know,
[4:37] Speaker 3: we actually like that. But then in terms of the
[4:39] Speaker 3: catches guidance systems of you know, we're going up and down,
[4:43] Speaker 3: up and down, but where should we be going? That
[4:45] Speaker 3: could be trickery to interpret, particularly said if the FED
[4:48] Speaker 3: turns out to be very divide, if it seems that
[4:51] Speaker 3: Kevin Walsh is in charge of a very divided federal Reserve.
[4:54] Speaker 2: So with the current makeup, put Warsh aside for a
[4:58] Speaker 2: moment and what he has said in the past, and
[5:01] Speaker 2: forget for a moment that President Trump has kind of
[5:04] Speaker 2: suggested that his mission would be to lower interest rates.
[5:08] Speaker 2: Do you think the current makeup of the FED will
[5:12] Speaker 2: still be supportive of a strong dollar story.
[5:17] Speaker 3: I think that the Fed's going to say that we're
[5:19] Speaker 3: in charge of We've got our dual mandate. That's what
[5:22] Speaker 3: we're in charge. We're not really in charge of the dollar.
[5:24] Speaker 3: A dollar goes where a dollar goes, so you know,
[5:27] Speaker 3: that's not really part of the mandate. So I think
[5:30] Speaker 3: they'll emphasize that our jobs to control inflation and maintain
[5:33] Speaker 3: full employment, and that's what we are focused on. Where
[5:37] Speaker 3: what we do as a result of that is termed
[5:39] Speaker 3: bive a dollar, and then often said that we can
[5:41] Speaker 3: only influence the market that the dollar to a certain degree. Anyway,
[5:45] Speaker 3: obviously there's many other market participants. It's very deep market.
[5:49] Speaker 3: So to actually go in and influence that by such bank,
[5:53] Speaker 3: it's very tough. If you see the bank which your
[5:55] Speaker 3: band coming and try intervene, and me seeing that that
[5:57] Speaker 3: hasn't had really much of an impact at all, I
[6:00] Speaker 3: think the FED will focus to its mandates, and from
[6:03] Speaker 3: that the market will then say, well, the dollars should
[6:05] Speaker 3: go where it goes. Obviously, the amount of high or
[6:09] Speaker 3: how hawkish for central banks will obviously have an impact
[6:13] Speaker 3: on where the dollar goes from now, particularly given the
[6:16] Speaker 3: market is currently pricing in a good chance for great
[6:19] Speaker 3: height this year. If that is dialed back, if that
[6:22] Speaker 3: Fed dot plot or can wash this that look we
[6:25] Speaker 3: think we're going to hold for an extended period of time,
[6:28] Speaker 3: then obviously you think certain him a nearterm for dollar
[6:30] Speaker 3: comes under pressure. Having said that, though the US economy
[6:34] Speaker 3: is performing overall pretty well, certainly compared to other economies,
[6:38] Speaker 3: So if you go from a growth perspective, you know
[6:40] Speaker 3: the question is okay, you get a Nietzsche moved down
[6:43] Speaker 3: on a dollar. But how long can that exist? If
[6:45] Speaker 3: the US economy continues to perform well and maybe outperform
[6:49] Speaker 3: some of its peers.
[6:50] Speaker 2: It particularly if oil continues to retreat, that's going to
[6:55] Speaker 2: be a supportive of a weaker oil price. I would
[6:57] Speaker 2: say it would be supportive of greater aconomic growth. You
[7:01] Speaker 2: mentioned the BOJ meeting, that decision was widely expected. The
[7:04] Speaker 2: twenty five basis point increase the policy rate now one percent.
[7:10] Speaker 2: Is the pressure now on the BOJ to do it
[7:12] Speaker 2: one more time? Or do you think that they're going
[7:14] Speaker 2: to adopt When I say they the policy makers at
[7:16] Speaker 2: the Bank of Japan will adopt a strategy of just
[7:19] Speaker 2: let's wait and see what happens, particularly given the developments
[7:23] Speaker 2: taking place in Iran and how that may impact the
[7:27] Speaker 2: energy markets.
[7:28] Speaker 3: I think a bit of both. I mean that the
[7:30] Speaker 3: BOJ realistically has been on a every six month hiking cycle,
[7:35] Speaker 3: you know, give or take a month or two, and
[7:37] Speaker 3: the market's basically looking for another great hike from BOJ
[7:41] Speaker 3: by the year end. That catches because that's heavily priced in.
[7:45] Speaker 3: If you don't at least signal that the market's going
[7:47] Speaker 3: to go well, then we're going to basically unwind those expectations,
[7:51] Speaker 3: which course is pressure on the end, which is the lasting.
[7:55] Speaker 3: I think the BOJ in certainly the MF wants so.
[7:58] Speaker 3: I think the BOJ is going to say, yes, we
[8:01] Speaker 3: are taking our time, we'll watching stuff, but if everything
[8:05] Speaker 3: continues at the same pace, there will be another hike
[8:07] Speaker 3: this year. So because there's six more months, so basically
[8:12] Speaker 3: in the year, they have time to say we are waiting,
[8:16] Speaker 3: but he said they'll keep that. If we remain on track,
[8:19] Speaker 3: they'll be hike. I think with the market giving it,
[8:22] Speaker 3: if you take it away from the market, the market
[8:24] Speaker 3: will very quickly turn against the end, which said for
[8:26] Speaker 3: lasting the BOJ or the MRF.
[8:28] Speaker 2: Once, I want to ask you about what's going on
[8:31] Speaker 2: in China. We had the monthly activity data the other
[8:34] Speaker 2: day for the month of May. No surprise there weakness
[8:37] Speaker 2: and retail sales, which kind of indicates what we've already
[8:41] Speaker 2: known about the Chinese economy, which is the weak domestic
[8:43] Speaker 2: demand story. And on the other hand, industrial production the
[8:48] Speaker 2: top forecast, and again it kind of suggests what we
[8:51] Speaker 2: already know, which is that the kind of manufacturing the
[8:55] Speaker 2: industrial economy as it relates to it, the export driven
[8:59] Speaker 2: part of the business US in Japan or in China
[9:01] Speaker 2: rather is continuing to hold up pretty well. Any surprises
[9:05] Speaker 2: for you in that data.
[9:06] Speaker 3: In the retail sales certainly stood out because it was
[9:09] Speaker 3: quite disappointing. So, you know, from the China authorities, I
[9:13] Speaker 3: don't think they'll be happy with that. You know, you'd
[9:14] Speaker 3: certainly like the consumer to be doing more of the
[9:18] Speaker 3: shares we say, of supporting growth, he said, the trade
[9:21] Speaker 3: certainly doing it's more fair share. But I think you
[9:24] Speaker 3: certainly want the consumer turning around, particularly if you wanted
[9:26] Speaker 3: face to pick up, you want the consumer to be
[9:29] Speaker 3: part of that. So I think that's slightly worrying. But
[9:32] Speaker 3: again that's something that Chinese startines will be aware of
[9:35] Speaker 3: and they will certainly try and adopt policies to try
[9:38] Speaker 3: and stimulate that. So beyond that, you know, it was
[9:41] Speaker 3: all pretty much in line. And it's interesting with that
[9:44] Speaker 3: data you look at the yuan, you know, and the fixinges.
[9:47] Speaker 3: You know, the fixinges you want continue to grind higher.
[9:51] Speaker 3: The one continues Dolly Juan continued to grind lower again
[9:55] Speaker 3: where it goes very near tim I think is obviously
[9:57] Speaker 3: heavy dependent on the FED, but certainly the authorities seem
[10:01] Speaker 3: quite comfortable with a yuon grind in its way higher
[10:07] Speaker 3: continue to do that, so in terms of that impact
[10:09] Speaker 3: on the economy, they don't seem overly too perturbed.
[10:12] Speaker 2: David, it's always a pleasure. Thank you so very much
[10:14] Speaker 2: for joining us. Bloomberg Strategist David Finnerty joining from our
[10:18] Speaker 2: studios in Singapore here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome
[10:30] Speaker 2: back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Prisner. As
[10:33] Speaker 2: i mentioned earlier, the US and Iran are set to
[10:36] Speaker 2: formally sign their memorandum of understanding on June nineteenth in Switzerland,
[10:41] Speaker 2: and in advance of that signing, a number of Iran
[10:44] Speaker 2: linked oil tankers were on the move earlier Today. Vessel
[10:48] Speaker 2: tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show four ships, two of
[10:51] Speaker 2: which are supertankers, appear to be sailing out of the
[10:55] Speaker 2: Strait of Horror Moves or Gulf of Oman, and at
[10:58] Speaker 2: least three others were waiting just outside the Persian Gulf
[11:01] Speaker 2: and they had left their positions. That's where we began
[11:04] Speaker 2: our conversation with Parash. Jane Parash is Global head of
[11:08] Speaker 2: Transport and Logistics Research at HSBC. He spoke with Bloomberg
[11:13] Speaker 2: TV host Heidi Stroud Watts and Sherry on.
[11:16] Speaker 1: This is kind of the latest detail that we've been
[11:19] Speaker 1: able to discover from this memorandum of understanding was essentially
[11:24] Speaker 1: the immediate ability for around to be able to sell
[11:26] Speaker 1: its crewed How meaningful is that do you think for
[11:29] Speaker 1: the broader industries that rely on to it.
[11:34] Speaker 5: I mean, so far as supping industry is concerned, I
[11:36] Speaker 5: think many of those are on a wait and see mode. Certainly,
[11:40] Speaker 5: the headline news is certainly positive. There are over six
[11:44] Speaker 5: hundred vessels which are stranded in the Gulf region and
[11:47] Speaker 5: many of them are on either side of the Strait
[11:50] Speaker 5: of Hormus, so you will see the wave of ships
[11:53] Speaker 5: trying to leave that. But for them, the insurance market
[11:57] Speaker 5: need to come to the normal sea and for which
[11:59] Speaker 5: we still need to see a period of seamless movement
[12:03] Speaker 5: before the confidence restore. So many of the many of
[12:06] Speaker 5: the shipping line at this point are still on a
[12:08] Speaker 5: wait and see more. We haven't seen a surge of
[12:10] Speaker 5: movement of weak vessels in the last few days as well,
[12:14] Speaker 5: So for instance, for the shipping lines, it's more about
[12:18] Speaker 5: seeing the stability physically on the ground before they before
[12:22] Speaker 5: they take action in terms of moving vessels.
[12:25] Speaker 1: For as you talk about this idea that initially we're
[12:28] Speaker 1: probably only going to see what's characterized as high risk
[12:30] Speaker 1: vessels make that transit. What are the volumes that we're
[12:34] Speaker 1: looking at versus perhaps the segments of vessels and owners
[12:39] Speaker 1: that are going to hang back for a while.
[12:43] Speaker 5: So I mean at this point of time, probably you
[12:45] Speaker 5: will see the tankers would be the first one to
[12:48] Speaker 5: leave it, and that depends upon the risk capetite. And
[12:52] Speaker 5: you will see probably some of the Iranian oil which
[12:55] Speaker 5: are using those shanctioned feet, will be the first one
[12:58] Speaker 5: to leave. As so far as commercial vessels are concerned,
[13:01] Speaker 5: probably the insurance market need to act first before you
[13:04] Speaker 5: see a normalcy. So we are talking about gradual resumption
[13:08] Speaker 5: rather than back to normal in one go.
[13:17] Speaker 2: Pash.
[13:18] Speaker 1: There's also a great deal of our uncertainty as to
[13:20] Speaker 1: the demining of that area, right, is there sort of
[13:25] Speaker 1: good faith in terms that this is going to happen
[13:28] Speaker 1: quickly and effectively.
[13:32] Speaker 5: I think what we are hearing is that the process
[13:34] Speaker 5: will take about forty to fifty days, and that's why
[13:36] Speaker 5: this in this two months period you probably will see
[13:40] Speaker 5: not a lot of movement from the shipping lines perspective.
[13:44] Speaker 5: So probably these sixty days will be washed very very carefully.
[13:48] Speaker 5: How this mind sweeping works, how the insurance caught insurance
[13:52] Speaker 5: cost comes to the normal sea because they bear it
[13:54] Speaker 5: in mind that the repositioning is a big task and
[13:58] Speaker 5: the last thing that shipping linets is that they spent
[14:01] Speaker 5: two months to read out all the vessels only to
[14:03] Speaker 5: get to know that actually they need to revert it back.
[14:06] Speaker 5: And therefore probably the sixty days period you will see
[14:09] Speaker 5: actual normalcy only beyond that.
[14:14] Speaker 4: So Paraje, let's assume that normalcy returns slowly and that
[14:19] Speaker 4: this piece seal could be long lasting enough for our
[14:23] Speaker 4: ship owners to passer vessels through of hormones who are
[14:28] Speaker 4: actually more exposed to any downside from it. Because of
[14:32] Speaker 4: course we have seen freight rates, for example, surging during
[14:35] Speaker 4: the conflict, benefiting some companies. Are there others that could
[14:39] Speaker 4: actually end up losing here?
[14:43] Speaker 5: Yes, over a medium term, probably container shipping would be
[14:46] Speaker 5: the one sector where you will see a downside as
[14:50] Speaker 5: the Once the state of hormones issue is resolved, probably
[14:54] Speaker 5: the focus will shift towards reopening of Red Sea. Bear
[14:57] Speaker 5: it in mind that close to seven to eight percent
[14:59] Speaker 5: of the container shipping capacity have been absorbed as the
[15:04] Speaker 5: ships routed through the through the Africa region. So as
[15:08] Speaker 5: soon as the Red Sea resume, you will see with
[15:11] Speaker 5: impending forty percent of order book another seven to eight
[15:13] Speaker 5: percent coming back. Would ensure that the container shipping freight
[15:17] Speaker 5: rate will see a sustained pressure in the coming years.
[15:20] Speaker 5: But at the same time, in the near term you
[15:23] Speaker 5: can't rule out a rising congestion because of rerouting, because
[15:26] Speaker 5: of imbalance of the vessels. Bear it in mind that
[15:29] Speaker 5: the vessels which are stranded in the Strait of Hormos
[15:32] Speaker 5: for over one hundred days may many of them will
[15:35] Speaker 5: have a biofouling incident as the ships at the part
[15:39] Speaker 5: which is under the water will the will have the plants,
[15:42] Speaker 5: will have the seaweeds. So you will see as soon
[15:44] Speaker 5: as those ships leave the Strait of Hormos they may
[15:47] Speaker 5: go into the dry docking phase and that will absorb
[15:49] Speaker 5: a lot of capacity. So in the shorter term is
[15:52] Speaker 5: generally bullesh for shipping because you will see a congestion
[15:56] Speaker 5: and dislocation of capacity.
[16:00] Speaker 4: At least when it comes to airlines, can we expect
[16:03] Speaker 4: broad upside? I mean, what will be some of the
[16:06] Speaker 4: operational changes that we might expect if the ramp he
[16:10] Speaker 4: s your last in terms of airspace access, perhaps insurance
[16:14] Speaker 4: normalization and just other business aspects that these carriers need
[16:20] Speaker 4: to consider.
[16:23] Speaker 5: No, absolutely, because the airline was the one subsector in
[16:26] Speaker 5: this transport universe which got hit hard. So of course
[16:29] Speaker 5: you will see a mean reversion. But I think depending
[16:33] Speaker 5: on where the oil price sustains, our house views that
[16:36] Speaker 5: Brent will average around ninety five jet fuel about one
[16:39] Speaker 5: hundred and twenty five, and I think at these levels
[16:42] Speaker 5: like boys will be separate from Man, so the strong
[16:45] Speaker 5: airlines frother will emerge stronger, whereas some of the weaker
[16:49] Speaker 5: airlines probably would have lost their competitive edge in this downcycle.
[16:53] Speaker 5: What is interesting to see is that Middle Eastern carriers
[16:56] Speaker 5: are returning back quite fiercely, and they are of bring
[17:00] Speaker 5: them free medical insurance. They're offering the sort of insurance says.
[17:05] Speaker 5: They are keeping their air freight or rather air ticket
[17:09] Speaker 5: prices closer to the January February level, so you will
[17:12] Speaker 5: see a shop pickup in terms of the load factor
[17:15] Speaker 5: and the capacity edition, which means that some of the
[17:18] Speaker 5: ultra high fair enjoyed by kathay Sia of the world
[17:22] Speaker 5: will see some bit of normalization in the second.
[17:24] Speaker 4: Half Parash given what we're seeing geopolitically globally at the moment,
[17:31] Speaker 4: not only would the Iran War, the Ukraine War and
[17:33] Speaker 4: just different geopolitical flash points. How is all of this
[17:37] Speaker 4: sort of reshaping not only airlines, but shipping companies, global
[17:41] Speaker 4: transport industries thinking when it comes to routes that they
[17:45] Speaker 4: need to take, when it comes to really trying to
[17:48] Speaker 4: have some alternatives in the future.
[17:52] Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's an interesting question. And there are
[17:55] Speaker 5: two key messages actually which we have been reminding investors
[17:58] Speaker 5: in the past several years. Rather than rather than this conflict,
[18:02] Speaker 5: that you have to change two things in the way
[18:04] Speaker 5: you think. First of all, that chaos is not an
[18:07] Speaker 5: exception anymore. It's a norm when you do your business planning,
[18:11] Speaker 5: whether you are a retailer, whether you are a logistic company,
[18:13] Speaker 5: whether you are a shipping investors or a shipowner. And
[18:16] Speaker 5: second thing is that gone are the days where the
[18:19] Speaker 5: two percent demand can be handled by two percent of supply.
[18:22] Speaker 5: Because while there is an enormous amount of focus on
[18:25] Speaker 5: the ship capacity, because all the consultants, all the analysts,
[18:29] Speaker 5: all the byside looks at that number, we analyze the
[18:32] Speaker 5: shipping capacity till we get paralyzed. Whereas as they say, right,
[18:36] Speaker 5: you are as strong as your weakest link. And we
[18:38] Speaker 5: have started to see a sustained bottlenecks across the supply chain,
[18:43] Speaker 5: starting with the ports, and which means that even if
[18:47] Speaker 5: we are optically heading into a down cycle, you will
[18:51] Speaker 5: continue to see a per cup in congestions. Bear it
[18:54] Speaker 5: in mind that we are heading into probably one of
[18:56] Speaker 5: the strongest Alino going into later half of the year,
[19:00] Speaker 5: so don't be surprised if you see a lower water
[19:02] Speaker 5: revel creating a bottleneck for the ship movements, whether it's
[19:05] Speaker 5: in Panama Canal, whether it's Rhyane River and other part
[19:08] Speaker 5: of the world.
[19:08] Speaker 2: That was Piash Jane, Global head of Transport and Logistics
[19:12] Speaker 2: Research at HSBC, speaking with Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud,
[19:17] Speaker 2: Watts and Cherry on bringing you their conversation here on
[19:20] Speaker 2: the Daybreak Asia podcast. Thanks for listening to today's episode
[19:26] Speaker 2: of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we
[19:30] Speaker 2: look at the story shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in
[19:34] Speaker 2: the Asia Pacific. You can find us on Apple Spotify,
[19:37] Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen.
[19:41] Speaker 2: Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves
[19:44] Speaker 2: from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Chrisner,
[19:49] Speaker 2: and this is Bloomberg.

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