# Stocks, Oil Whipsaw With Iran Deadline in Focus

An episode of [Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1663863437), 7 Apr 2026, 22 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/58e85be7-dbb5-4043-afed-af80014dc0b3/61b32c5c-86f9-4ae2-95b3-b425001532b9/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=27143354-63aa-4ac5-965d-af80014dc0d3

Business and finance news from the Asia-Pacific. Financial markets swung amid uncertainty ahead of President Donald Trump's Iran deadline, with tentative ceasefire signals offset by the risk of an escalation in the conflict. Brent crude trimmed its opening gains to trade just under $110 a barrel as markets remained volatile before Trump's Tuesday 8 p.m. Eastern Time cutoff. US equity-index futures erased initial losses to trade little changed. We speak to Paul Dobson, Bloomberg's Executive Editor for Asia Markets. Plus - President Donald Trump insisted that freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz be part of any deal to end the Middle East war and escalated threats to obliterate key Iranian infrastructure if his terms aren't met before a Tuesday deadline. Trump said Monday that talks with Iran are "going well" and that reopening the strait as "a very big priority." The president in recent weeks has said an agreement on the strait wasn't among his core prerequisites for ending the conflict. "We have to have a deal that's acceptable to me, and part of that deal is going to be we want free traffic of oil and everything," he said at a White House news conference. For more, we heard from Elisa Ewers, Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She spoke to Bloomberg's Paul Allen and Shery Ahn on the Asia Trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
[0:11] Speaker 2: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Prisner. Crude
[0:14] Speaker 2: oil prices have steadied in Asian trading, even as President
[0:17] Speaker 2: Trump escalated threats to Iran. Earlier, Trump said the US
[0:21] Speaker 2: will obliterate key Iranian infrastructure if his terms are not
[0:25] Speaker 2: met before a Tuesday night deadline. Now, chief among them
[0:28] Speaker 2: is freedom of navigation through the strait of horror moves.
[0:31] Speaker 2: For a closer look at how markets are digesting all
[0:34] Speaker 2: of this news, I'm joined by Bloomberg's Paul Dobson. Paul
[0:37] Speaker 2: is Executive editor for Asia Markets. He joins from our
[0:40] Speaker 2: studios in Singapore. Thank you so much for being here.
[0:44] Speaker 2: This is kind of a difficult moment in time. I'm
[0:46] Speaker 2: not convinced that Trump is really locked in to this deadline.
[0:51] Speaker 2: Is it possible, based on past history that he could
[0:54] Speaker 2: move the goalpost, so to speak?
[0:56] Speaker 3: It definitely is, isn't it, Doug. I mean, the precident
[1:00] Speaker 3: suggests that there's every likelihood that a deadline will be
[1:03] Speaker 3: pushed back again, or they'll be found some sort of
[1:06] Speaker 3: a way to de escalate the tension. Having gotten to
[1:10] Speaker 3: this point, and you know, we've seen that playbook many
[1:14] Speaker 3: times before, So the question will be what if there
[1:17] Speaker 3: is no opportunity to do that, What if' around continues
[1:21] Speaker 3: to step up its defiance instead, you know, will Trump
[1:25] Speaker 3: be pushed to actually follow through on his words and
[1:28] Speaker 3: with with more action. And so I think that the
[1:32] Speaker 3: next twenty four hours from a market's perspective is really
[1:34] Speaker 3: going to be that waiting game, watching very carefully what
[1:39] Speaker 3: we hear from diplomacy all around the world. One of
[1:42] Speaker 3: the reports today was talking about how Japan's leader tak
[1:46] Speaker 3: Aichi is planning to speak with the Iranian leadership as well,
[1:49] Speaker 3: looking to see, you know, where the grounds are for
[1:52] Speaker 3: some kind of negotiation to stave off the latest sort
[1:55] Speaker 3: of threats that we've seen from the US side. So
[1:59] Speaker 3: I think a lot of nervous, twitchy traders out there,
[2:03] Speaker 3: and if it gets through to you know, six seven
[2:07] Speaker 3: pm tomorrow, then you know, we will be we will
[2:10] Speaker 3: be a whole lot more anxious about what happens next.
[2:13] Speaker 2: You mentioned Japan, but isn't the same conversation happening maybe
[2:16] Speaker 2: in a slightly different way in South Korea where the
[2:19] Speaker 2: government is considering an extra budget if the higher oil
[2:24] Speaker 2: price does have a devastating impact on economic growth.
[2:28] Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think that what was going to be
[2:29] Speaker 3: interesting bigger picture is that response that we see from leadership,
[2:34] Speaker 3: governments or around the world. I think, Doug, you know,
[2:37] Speaker 3: in all honesty, if you had told me five and
[2:41] Speaker 3: a half weeks ago the straight up hormews is going
[2:43] Speaker 3: to be closed, where do you think we will be
[2:46] Speaker 3: in terms of the global economy by the time you
[2:48] Speaker 3: get round to the second week in April? I would
[2:51] Speaker 3: have said, well, you know, based on everything that we know,
[2:54] Speaker 3: surely there will be big shortages of fuel, feedstocks, energy
[2:58] Speaker 3: supplies all around the world world and really, you know,
[3:01] Speaker 3: apart from an emerging markets, particularly in Asia, the actual
[3:06] Speaker 3: impacts you know, the real world sort of things scrining
[3:09] Speaker 3: to a Holt is pretty pretty small.
[3:12] Speaker 4: Yeah.
[3:12] Speaker 3: We do have Asian nations that have gone to a
[3:14] Speaker 3: four day working week, We do have some flights that
[3:16] Speaker 3: have been grounded or halted, and we do have you know,
[3:19] Speaker 3: localized disruptions in terms of energy supplies. You know, the
[3:23] Speaker 3: Indian cooking gas for example, was a big story. But
[3:27] Speaker 3: I think that you know, the fact that the world
[3:28] Speaker 3: has managed to last so long, you know, releasing strategic
[3:32] Speaker 3: reserves finding the floating storage getting that into the system
[3:36] Speaker 3: as well has been actually one of the more remarkable
[3:40] Speaker 3: things here. But the problem is, you know, it can't
[3:42] Speaker 3: last forever until the straight up horror moves does get opened,
[3:45] Speaker 3: And so governments are thinking about, you know, what can
[3:47] Speaker 3: we do to ensure that we have what we need
[3:49] Speaker 3: to keep on going. In Japan, it seems like takh
[3:52] Speaker 3: you work very hard to ensure that there's enough naphtha,
[3:55] Speaker 3: which is a key ingredient for a lot of manufacturing
[3:57] Speaker 3: processes for plastics and so on, and South Korea likewise.
[4:01] Speaker 3: You know, I think each of the individual governments is
[4:04] Speaker 3: sort of looking out for themselves and figuring out where
[4:07] Speaker 3: else they can get these energy supplies from to ensure
[4:09] Speaker 3: that things can run for as long as possible. But
[4:12] Speaker 3: everybody knows that it can't last forever like that.
[4:16] Speaker 2: So a key debate that's going on right now in
[4:18] Speaker 2: the US treasury market seems to be either higher oil
[4:22] Speaker 2: creates a growth shock or much much higher inflation. Is
[4:27] Speaker 2: it clear right now in your mind, which is going
[4:30] Speaker 2: to be more impactful.
[4:33] Speaker 3: No, And part of the reason for that is that
[4:36] Speaker 3: suspicion that were the US and Israel and Iran to
[4:39] Speaker 3: find some kind of a compromise that could reopen the strait.
[4:42] Speaker 3: Then the price of oil would come off relatively rapidly,
[4:45] Speaker 3: and that oil shock, Yes, we probably see higher oil
[4:48] Speaker 3: prices for longer because we'd need to refit inventries and
[4:50] Speaker 3: so on and so forth, and there's been a lot
[4:52] Speaker 3: of destruction. But all that being said, the price of
[4:55] Speaker 3: oil would come off quite dramatically, and so that would
[4:57] Speaker 3: reverse the picture quite quickly as well. So for slowly
[5:00] Speaker 3: central banks, it's a really difficult one. And I think
[5:02] Speaker 3: it's not just the FED, but central banks all around
[5:04] Speaker 3: the world have got this sort of dual sort of choice. Basically,
[5:08] Speaker 3: either they look through the inflation and choose not to move,
[5:11] Speaker 3: so New Zealand for example, would be in that camp,
[5:14] Speaker 3: or they move rapidly now to try to snuff out
[5:17] Speaker 3: the risk of inflation bubbling up and becoming more entrenched
[5:21] Speaker 3: in the economy, and so you see much higher short
[5:23] Speaker 3: term interest rates, and Australia would be an example of that.
[5:26] Speaker 3: I think for the US, you know where we are
[5:27] Speaker 3: right now. We've wiped out the possibility of the FED
[5:30] Speaker 3: cutting interest rates this year based on market pricing right now,
[5:34] Speaker 3: But whether they would actually go ahead and hike interest
[5:37] Speaker 3: rates instead. Still is sort of a big uncertainty.
[5:40] Speaker 2: So we have the minutes of the last FED meeting
[5:42] Speaker 2: midweek in the US and then Thursday, I believe the
[5:46] Speaker 2: Fed's preferred measure of inflation that's core PCE Friday, it's
[5:51] Speaker 2: the CPI data. So there's a lot to consider in
[5:53] Speaker 2: terms of inflation, at least as it relates to the US.
[5:56] Speaker 2: Can we talk about the chip makers. We had some
[5:59] Speaker 2: positivity during US trading where the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was
[6:02] Speaker 2: up about one percent, and news that the South Korean
[6:06] Speaker 2: memory chip maker sk Heinex has filed to list ADR's
[6:10] Speaker 2: US listed chairs sometime this year, and we're being told
[6:14] Speaker 2: this deal could raise as much as ten billion. Let
[6:16] Speaker 2: me get your reaction and maybe you can help me
[6:18] Speaker 2: understand what a company like sk Heinex would do with
[6:22] Speaker 2: that ten billion dollars.
[6:24] Speaker 3: Ah, yeah, A good question. Well, I guess you know,
[6:27] Speaker 3: carry on expanding partly South Korean companies as part of
[6:31] Speaker 3: the trade deals with Trump, if you can remember those
[6:33] Speaker 3: before everything else that's happened since supposed to be investing
[6:37] Speaker 3: and building more facilities in the US, as well as domestically,
[6:42] Speaker 3: So you could definitely see the lights of the South
[6:45] Speaker 3: Korean companies building facilities in the US, alongside Japanese firms
[6:50] Speaker 3: and TSMC from Taiwan as well. But I think that
[6:55] Speaker 3: right now the demand for the memory chips from Samsung
[6:58] Speaker 3: and sk Heinex has just so staggeringly large. You know,
[7:02] Speaker 3: they're basically sold out, and so whatever they can do
[7:04] Speaker 3: to increase capacity and keep on going is beneficial for them,
[7:08] Speaker 3: and you know, kind of keeps keeps the whole sort
[7:11] Speaker 3: of process unfolding. The demand is there because of the
[7:15] Speaker 3: uses that they have in the AI related data centers,
[7:18] Speaker 3: of course. And so we had earnings from Samsung this morning,
[7:22] Speaker 3: preliminary earnings, not a lot of details in there, but
[7:24] Speaker 3: it seemed like a pretty big beat relative to analyst estimates.
[7:28] Speaker 3: And so South Korean shares have opened today again looking strong.
[7:33] Speaker 2: So if we can agree that demand for these memory
[7:36] Speaker 2: chips is very, very strong right now, I'm going to
[7:39] Speaker 2: imagine that a company like sk Heinex or Samsung has
[7:42] Speaker 2: a great deal of pricing power, right They're going to
[7:44] Speaker 2: try to preserve their margins by raising prices. Is that fair?
[7:49] Speaker 1: Yeah?
[7:50] Speaker 3: Well, and prices have been going up relatively rapidly as well,
[7:54] Speaker 3: and that hasn't really stopped anything. I think that you know,
[7:59] Speaker 3: there are are there are is some competition from Chinese names,
[8:02] Speaker 3: for example, but relatively you know, the wall can hardly
[8:07] Speaker 3: get enough right at this moment in time, the memory
[8:09] Speaker 3: chip cycle does seem to be a sort of boom
[8:11] Speaker 3: and busty kind of up a long way and then
[8:13] Speaker 3: down a long way. So it's not guaranteed that it
[8:15] Speaker 3: would last forever, but at the moment they do seem
[8:18] Speaker 3: to be on a relatively an exciting puff. And of course,
[8:23] Speaker 3: you know, the cost b is still I think one
[8:25] Speaker 3: of the world's best performing equity indexes this year. It's
[8:28] Speaker 3: still you know, arose as much as forty something percent
[8:33] Speaker 3: before the war broke out, and it's held onto something
[8:35] Speaker 3: like half of those games, maybe a little bit more
[8:37] Speaker 3: as well. So it's still a place where people would
[8:40] Speaker 3: like to invest were it not for the economic strains
[8:43] Speaker 3: that have been caused by the war in Iran. I
[8:45] Speaker 3: think what would be really interesting is if we do
[8:47] Speaker 3: start to see that sort of knock on impact of
[8:50] Speaker 3: higher bond yields, higher borrowing costs deferring some data center projects.
[8:55] Speaker 3: Were that to lead to any cancellation of orders in
[8:57] Speaker 3: memory chips, then that would disrupt the narrow but it's
[9:00] Speaker 3: not something that we've seen so far.
[9:02] Speaker 2: So we've talked a little bit about the impact of
[9:04] Speaker 2: the war as it relates to countries like Japan and
[9:06] Speaker 2: South Korea. I'm curious about the China story because we're
[9:09] Speaker 2: about a month away now from President Trump meeting with
[9:13] Speaker 2: Chinese President Chi at last check, that's still on course.
[9:18] Speaker 2: Are we hearing anything from the Chinese side as it
[9:20] Speaker 2: relates to higher energy cost.
[9:23] Speaker 3: So China has somehow managed to find its way through
[9:28] Speaker 3: all of this so far relatively unscathed. And I think
[9:34] Speaker 3: that there's a couple of reasons for that. One extremely
[9:38] Speaker 3: large reserves that it has built up for such an
[9:42] Speaker 3: eventuality to you know, its diversified energy supplies or electricity
[9:48] Speaker 3: production certainly helps. So a lot of renewable energy in
[9:52] Speaker 3: the system already in China, a lot of electric vehicles
[9:56] Speaker 3: as well, so that reduces fuel demand relatively And you know,
[10:01] Speaker 3: China is still getting deliveries we think, or probably most
[10:06] Speaker 3: likely from those Iranian channels via the sort of established network.
[10:11] Speaker 3: So what is getting out from the rundside from the
[10:13] Speaker 3: straight to forward is probably some of it is finding
[10:16] Speaker 3: its way into China. So so far, you know what
[10:19] Speaker 3: we have seen and what we do know is that
[10:21] Speaker 3: is that China's markets have held up relatively well compared
[10:25] Speaker 3: to some of the rest of Asia, and the currency
[10:28] Speaker 3: in particular, Who's continued to look pretty strong, even against
[10:31] Speaker 3: the US dollar and certainly against the rest of the
[10:34] Speaker 3: regent's markets. So people talking about how usually in the
[10:38] Speaker 3: second quarter of the un comes under sort of pressure,
[10:40] Speaker 3: it's a seasonal thing. This year people may be looking
[10:43] Speaker 3: for it to continue to strengthen rather than follow that
[10:47] Speaker 3: usual trajectory.
[10:48] Speaker 2: Okay, Paul, thank you so very much. We'll leave it there.
[10:50] Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Paul Dobson. He is executive editor for Asia Markets.
[10:54] Speaker 2: Joining from our studios in Singapore here on the Daybreak
[10:57] Speaker 2: Asia podcast. Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm
[11:07] Speaker 2: Doug Prisner. So on Monday, President Trump gave Iran a
[11:11] Speaker 2: deadline of eight pm Eastern Time Tuesday to reach a
[11:15] Speaker 2: deal with the US, and the President said if Iran
[11:17] Speaker 2: does not agree to his terms, the US military could
[11:20] Speaker 2: destroy every bridge in Iran by twelve o'clock tomorrow night
[11:24] Speaker 2: and put every power plant out of business now, The
[11:27] Speaker 2: UN said on Monday, Trump risk violating international law if
[11:32] Speaker 2: he were to make good on those threats. For more
[11:34] Speaker 2: analysis of the president's actions, we turned to Alyssa Ewers.
[11:38] Speaker 2: She is Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at the
[11:41] Speaker 2: Council on Foreign Relations. Alyssa spoke earlier with Bloomberg TV
[11:45] Speaker 2: host Sherry On and Paul Allen.
[11:47] Speaker 5: The Iran war apparently on the brink of escalation here,
[11:50] Speaker 5: as President Trump issues that morning, went about twenty four
[11:54] Speaker 5: hours to destroy Iran's critical infrastructure bridges, power stations. We
[11:59] Speaker 5: own the brink of an spation here or do you
[12:01] Speaker 5: anticipate a last minute reprieve, Well.
[12:05] Speaker 4: Thank you for having me on. I think both sides
[12:07] Speaker 4: appear to be far from a deal, and both are
[12:10] Speaker 4: telegraphing that they're ready to escalate. So when you look
[12:14] Speaker 4: at the demands that each side have presented, they don't
[12:17] Speaker 4: seem very compatible with one another. But underlying all of that,
[12:22] Speaker 4: I think is an interest on both sides to try
[12:25] Speaker 4: and find an off ramp if they can. It's just
[12:29] Speaker 4: on shore that they can do so by the end
[12:31] Speaker 4: of tomorrow.
[12:33] Speaker 5: So if Ron's critical infrastructure is hit what sort of
[12:38] Speaker 5: retaliation would you anticipate from the regime.
[12:42] Speaker 4: Well, I think we'll see an escalation of what we've
[12:44] Speaker 4: seen over the last six weeks, which is an unabashed
[12:47] Speaker 4: targeting of civilian and critical infrastructure throughout the region, hitting
[12:52] Speaker 4: all of the Gulf States and even further field, increasing
[12:56] Speaker 4: potentially the targeting inside of Israel as well. You know,
[13:00] Speaker 4: the Iranian regime has not held back from hitting critical
[13:04] Speaker 4: infrastructure and civilian targets throughout the war thus far, but
[13:08] Speaker 4: it will certainly continue to do so in ways that
[13:12] Speaker 4: will harm the economies of the region and certainly have
[13:15] Speaker 4: repercussions for the global economy as well.
[13:18] Speaker 1: If President Trump goes ahead and hit civilian infrastructure in Iran,
[13:23] Speaker 1: how would the world have to respond? The EU one
[13:25] Speaker 1: has already called this an international humanitarian law issue.
[13:32] Speaker 4: Well, hitting critical infrastructure is in fact prohibited under the
[13:35] Speaker 4: Geneva Convention. What you are seeing is that in order
[13:40] Speaker 4: to increase pressure on the regime, President Trump is considering
[13:45] Speaker 4: violating or potentially violating the Geneva Convention in order to
[13:50] Speaker 4: get the regime to be willing to concede and capitulate.
[13:54] Speaker 4: The regime has been violating the Geneva Convention all along
[13:57] Speaker 4: as well, and so you really have two sides who
[14:00] Speaker 4: have dismissed kind of the validity of the Geneva Conventions
[14:04] Speaker 4: in their decision making, thinking that increasing pressure on both
[14:08] Speaker 4: sides will get to an outcome that they want, regardless
[14:12] Speaker 4: of the implications of international humanitarian law.
[14:16] Speaker 1: With more of the third countries like Pakistan, age if
[14:19] Speaker 1: Turkey are trying to obtain a ceasefire. Where do you
[14:22] Speaker 1: think these negotiations are going right now?
[14:27] Speaker 4: I think they have been actively seeking to mediate and
[14:30] Speaker 4: trying to bridge the gap between the two sides. You've seen,
[14:34] Speaker 4: I think reported that the United States had originally presented
[14:39] Speaker 4: something that Iran had rejected. Now the government of Pakistan
[14:42] Speaker 4: offering both sides of just a middle road, so to speak,
[14:49] Speaker 4: that Iran reportedly has rejected and sent its own plan
[14:54] Speaker 4: in its stead. I think these negotiations, these mediations are
[14:58] Speaker 4: ongoing and they are intense. Think there is a desire
[15:01] Speaker 4: on behalf of those who are doing the mediating to
[15:04] Speaker 4: find some resolution. But as I said earlier, the demands
[15:09] Speaker 4: on both sides are not exactly compatible with one another,
[15:13] Speaker 4: and so these mediators are doing a lot of work,
[15:16] Speaker 4: but may not be able to bridge the.
[15:17] Speaker 5: Gap at leasta. As we mentioned, you've previously served on
[15:22] Speaker 5: the National Security Council under both Republican and Democratic administrations.
[15:26] Speaker 5: I'm wondering if you can give us an insight into
[15:28] Speaker 5: some of the thinking here around the messaging, because last
[15:31] Speaker 5: week President Trump said, looked the straightuphole Neves is going
[15:34] Speaker 5: to be Europe's problem to reopen. And over the weekend
[15:37] Speaker 5: we had that tweet or that social media post filled
[15:40] Speaker 5: with f bombs saying open the strait. So is there
[15:44] Speaker 5: a strategy here?
[15:48] Speaker 4: Well, I don't think you can draw a comparison between
[15:51] Speaker 4: President Trump's administration and any other administration that has come before.
[15:56] Speaker 4: Is I think the strategy here is that he is
[16:00] Speaker 4: trying to increase pressure and also find a way to
[16:04] Speaker 4: manage for the kind of domino effects that the war
[16:07] Speaker 4: has had. His polling here at home is not encouraging.
[16:12] Speaker 4: We're seeing polling over the weekend highest disapproval rates so
[16:17] Speaker 4: far in the six weeks, upward of eighty percent who
[16:19] Speaker 4: do not want to see the United States put our
[16:22] Speaker 4: armed forces in harm's way. And so I think he
[16:26] Speaker 4: is balancing that he's balancing the markets and the price
[16:29] Speaker 4: of oil and so he's, as we would say here,
[16:31] Speaker 4: throwing some spaghetti against the wall to see what sticks,
[16:35] Speaker 4: and either devolving the interest in the Strait of Hormuz
[16:39] Speaker 4: being open to others, but also kind of demanding that
[16:43] Speaker 4: he will make Iran or the Iranian regime pay as
[16:46] Speaker 4: well as the Iranian people pay in the event that
[16:48] Speaker 4: it does not open.
[16:51] Speaker 5: In terms of making the Iranian people pay as well,
[16:54] Speaker 5: is there are risk care of actually entrenching entrenching the
[16:57] Speaker 5: regime because as cruel as the regime is to its
[17:00] Speaker 5: own people, I mean worst as having a foreign power
[17:03] Speaker 5: bomb your critical infrastructure, could we see some nationalism here?
[17:08] Speaker 4: Well, there's no mistaking that this regime is the most
[17:11] Speaker 4: brutal actor against its own people, having killed tens of
[17:14] Speaker 4: thousands just earlier this year that we know of, probably
[17:19] Speaker 4: even more. But I do think that you're right in
[17:22] Speaker 4: suggesting that six weeks into a war where the population
[17:26] Speaker 4: has been you trying to stay safe, staying out of
[17:30] Speaker 4: harm's way. To see the kind of broad impact that
[17:34] Speaker 4: hits on civilian infrastructure will have will certainly impact their
[17:38] Speaker 4: ability to continue to withstand and not suffer throughout this campaign.
[17:43] Speaker 4: So while there are those who say Iranians wanted to
[17:47] Speaker 4: see pressure on this regime to try and create a
[17:51] Speaker 4: crisis where it might collapse. This is probably not the
[17:54] Speaker 4: way that they wanted to I think it's hard to
[17:57] Speaker 4: speculate what it would mean in terms of nationalists them,
[18:00] Speaker 4: but it is important to notice that this comes at
[18:03] Speaker 4: the suffering of the Iranian people.
[18:07] Speaker 1: And then, Lisa, where are Golf States right now and
[18:10] Speaker 1: where can we expect them to make the biggest difference
[18:13] Speaker 1: in this conflict?
[18:16] Speaker 4: Well, I think generally speaking, the Gulf States were not
[18:20] Speaker 4: wanting this war before it started. Now that it has
[18:24] Speaker 4: gone on for six weeks, they want to make sure
[18:27] Speaker 4: that when they come out of this they are safer
[18:29] Speaker 4: than they were on February twenty seventh. So the fact
[18:32] Speaker 4: that the Iranian regime has held the Strait of Hormuz
[18:36] Speaker 4: at risk having such significant impact on the economies of
[18:41] Speaker 4: these states, they do not want to see that precedent
[18:44] Speaker 4: set That is incredibly dangerous for them moving forward. Even
[18:48] Speaker 4: in a ceasefire situation, They've seen direct attacks on their
[18:53] Speaker 4: civilian infrastructure. This is not the kind of safe haven
[18:57] Speaker 4: and economic opportunity that they have tried to promote for
[19:01] Speaker 4: the last decade. And so they are of course wanting
[19:05] Speaker 4: to see something decisive come out of this war where
[19:09] Speaker 4: the Runian regime is not stronger, but is in fact
[19:11] Speaker 4: weaker and not able to threaten them at least.
[19:15] Speaker 1: So what does a future hold for the straight or
[19:18] Speaker 1: form moves now that we have Iran more decisively asking
[19:21] Speaker 1: for fees in order to transit this area, and not
[19:24] Speaker 1: to mention that they want international recognition of their authority
[19:28] Speaker 1: as well.
[19:30] Speaker 4: Well, that's right, that is exactly the dangerous president that
[19:32] Speaker 4: we're talking about. I mean, having that kind of tolling system,
[19:37] Speaker 4: the regime getting to decide who passes and who does
[19:40] Speaker 4: not pass and extracting a cost for passing is something
[19:45] Speaker 4: in international waterways where so much commerce transits that we
[19:49] Speaker 4: would not want to see elsewhere in the world replicated.
[19:53] Speaker 4: And so there's a real premium on ensuring that whatever
[19:57] Speaker 4: the ceasefire or longer term arrange that comes out of
[20:01] Speaker 4: this war, it does not give Orn the authority to
[20:05] Speaker 4: make those decisions on the behalf of all of those
[20:08] Speaker 4: who share the waterway and all of those who transit
[20:11] Speaker 4: international commerce through the straight up hoormus. So the demands
[20:15] Speaker 4: are clear. They would like to keep that upper hand.
[20:17] Speaker 4: It is certain the leverage, certainly the leverage that they
[20:20] Speaker 4: have used over the last several weeks during the escalation
[20:23] Speaker 4: of this war. But I think uniformly, and we've seen
[20:27] Speaker 4: this in the international community coming together thirty plus nations
[20:31] Speaker 4: deciding to sign on to commitments to that freedom of
[20:35] Speaker 4: navigation in addition to the United States obviously that there
[20:40] Speaker 4: is a real premium on ensuring that the regime does
[20:43] Speaker 4: not have that power coming out of this.
[20:45] Speaker 2: That is Alyssa Yours, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies
[20:48] Speaker 2: of the Council on Foreign Relations, speaking with Bloomberg TV
[20:52] Speaker 2: host Sherry On and Paul Allen, bringing you their conversation
[20:56] Speaker 2: here on the Daybreak Asia Podcast. Thanks for listening to
[21:01] Speaker 2: today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday,
[21:06] Speaker 2: we look at the story shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics
[21:10] Speaker 2: in the Asia Pacific. You can find us on Apple, Spotify,
[21:13] Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen.
[21:17] Speaker 2: Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves
[21:20] Speaker 2: from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Prisoner
[21:25] Speaker 2: and this is Bloomberg

Shows are listed from Apple Podcasts' charts and directory, and Podcast Index where it is used. Every show and episode belongs to its publisher and plays from the publisher's own feed; this site hosts none of them.