# US Blockade of Hormuz Impact on Supply, US-Iran Seek More Talks, More

An episode of [Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1663863437), 15 Apr 2026, 22 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/58e85be7-dbb5-4043-afed-af80014dc0b3/a977e73e-90fd-4101-bb99-b42d0014e081/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=27143354-63aa-4ac5-965d-af80014dc0d3

Business and finance news from the Asia-Pacific. The US is pressing ahead with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to curb Iran's oil exports, with more than 20 commercial ships transiting the strait in the last day. For more on what this means for the supply chain, we heard from Steve Hochman, Partner and Managing Director for the Americas at Nagarro. Plus - The US and Iran are looking to arrange a second round of peace talks in the coming days, while a standoff in the Strait of Hormuz worsens a global energy crisis and complicates diplomatic prospects. The objective is to hold more discussions before an April 7 ceasefire expires next week, according to people familiar with the matter. One proposal is to return to Pakistan, where initial negotiations were held last weekend, though other venues are being considered, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. For more, we heard from Mara Rudman, Miller Center Practitioner Senior Fellow and Former US State Department Deputy Envoy for Middle East Peace. She spoke to Bloomberg's Haidi Stroud-Watts and Avril Hong See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
[0:11] Speaker 2: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Risner. Most
[0:14] Speaker 2: Asian equity markets are benefiting today from strong tailwinds thanks
[0:18] Speaker 2: to a rally in US talks stateside. We had some
[0:21] Speaker 2: optimism tied to the possibility of a peace deal with
[0:24] Speaker 2: Iran and positivity from a tame reading on producer prices.
[0:29] Speaker 2: We had the S and P five hundred rising nearly
[0:31] Speaker 2: one point two percent, finishing just shy of a record high.
[0:35] Speaker 2: And importantly, crude oil prices were in retreat, with WTI
[0:39] Speaker 2: dropping seven point nine percent in New York trading to
[0:42] Speaker 2: around ninety one twenty eight. For a closer look at
[0:45] Speaker 2: the price section, I'm joined by Steve Hawkman. He is
[0:49] Speaker 2: partner also managing director for the Americas at Nagaro's. Steve
[0:53] Speaker 2: joins from Hood, Oregon. Thank you for being here. Do
[0:57] Speaker 2: you believe in what the market seems to be telegraphing
[1:01] Speaker 2: right now that the war in Iran has essentially moved
[1:04] Speaker 2: to the rear view? Do you share that view?
[1:07] Speaker 3: We take a more balanced view of any short term
[1:10] Speaker 3: news cycle, because, as you know, from even an hour
[1:14] Speaker 3: ago or two hours ago, the news was slightly different
[1:17] Speaker 3: than the two hours that preceded it. Right, So when
[1:20] Speaker 3: we think about supply chains and the companies that are
[1:22] Speaker 3: having to respond to these cycles and how and what
[1:25] Speaker 3: we advise is to take a range of time horizon views.
[1:30] Speaker 4: Right.
[1:30] Speaker 3: So first, first off, there's still there's still a partial
[1:34] Speaker 3: shutdown in the straight of four moves, right. So while
[1:37] Speaker 3: there are there's all sorts of evidence of progress, we
[1:41] Speaker 3: need to understand that there's been structural damage to not
[1:44] Speaker 3: just the straight to the shipping lanes and the opportunity
[1:47] Speaker 3: to ship through the straight and hour moves, but also
[1:50] Speaker 3: some of the oil production facilities and cutter and so on.
[1:54] Speaker 3: So there's a there's a short mid range view that
[1:57] Speaker 3: needs to be taken. Certainly of stimism is merited, but
[2:03] Speaker 3: we know we should have learned, and supply chain leaders
[2:05] Speaker 3: should have learned, who are managing global supply chains, that
[2:08] Speaker 3: whatever was news today is going to shift tomorrow.
[2:11] Speaker 2: It's not just the oil story. It's also about LNG.
[2:14] Speaker 2: We can look at fertilizer, aluminum and helium as well,
[2:18] Speaker 2: so it's a broader story beyond just the oil space, right,
[2:22] Speaker 2: one hundred percent.
[2:23] Speaker 3: Yes, energy is an input to every aspect of the
[2:27] Speaker 3: industrial economy, and so there's no sector that that is
[2:31] Speaker 3: going to be completely spared from a disruption like this.
[2:35] Speaker 3: But to your point, oil itself is something that can
[2:40] Speaker 3: be both used to produce energy and as an input
[2:44] Speaker 3: into other products. So the way that the impacts will
[2:47] Speaker 3: show up, of course, will be different by sector. But
[2:50] Speaker 3: it really is a systemic shock. It's not just an
[2:53] Speaker 3: oil story, it's an economic story.
[2:55] Speaker 2: One of the interesting things in terms of the equity
[2:57] Speaker 2: market performance, tech has been outperformed. In the last session
[3:01] Speaker 2: state side, we had the tech heavy NASDAQ one hundred
[3:04] Speaker 2: up about one point eight percent. I think it was
[3:06] Speaker 2: up for a tenth straight session, and if I'm not mistaken,
[3:09] Speaker 2: we could be looking at fresh records today in both
[3:12] Speaker 2: South Korea and Taiwana that tech positivity continues. What is
[3:16] Speaker 2: your view on tech at this point.
[3:19] Speaker 3: Yeah, So we look at it again through an operational lens,
[3:22] Speaker 3: and what we see is we look at the fundamentals
[3:25] Speaker 3: which drive those prices right, and what we see is
[3:30] Speaker 3: absolutely there's reason for strong support for the optimism that's
[3:35] Speaker 3: out there around the companies that are at play in
[3:39] Speaker 3: the tech business, whether that's on the software side or
[3:41] Speaker 3: on the technology side.
[3:43] Speaker 4: What we also.
[3:44] Speaker 3: See though, is a reason for measured caution as a
[3:47] Speaker 3: result of the supply chain disruptions that are just starting
[3:50] Speaker 3: to make their way through the supply chain. So it's
[3:54] Speaker 3: really again a good news, bad news and short term
[3:57] Speaker 3: long term story. In the short term, what you would start,
[4:02] Speaker 3: what you would expect to see as driving those those
[4:05] Speaker 3: stock prices up is happening.
[4:06] Speaker 1: Right.
[4:07] Speaker 3: These are well run companies, whether you're talking about the
[4:10] Speaker 3: you know, the Asia sector or in the US, which
[4:14] Speaker 3: you refer to earlier. Across the board, the leading semiconductor companies,
[4:19] Speaker 3: for example, are well run and largely experiencing healthy profits
[4:23] Speaker 3: thanks to drive and artificial intelligence and so on. However,
[4:28] Speaker 3: back to the sort of the subject of the moment,
[4:31] Speaker 3: it takes by virtue of the way supply chains work,
[4:34] Speaker 3: it takes weeks, sometimes months for the full impuc pact
[4:38] Speaker 3: of a supply shock of the type that we're experiencing
[4:40] Speaker 3: to percolate through supply chains, and so companies are they
[4:45] Speaker 3: navigate these these shocks by with increasingly sophisticated tools things
[4:51] Speaker 3: like artificial intelligence and simulation to be able to anticipate
[4:56] Speaker 3: what might happen, and they're getting better and better at that,
[4:59] Speaker 3: which is again a reason for economic optimism and therefore
[5:01] Speaker 3: the supporting of the price story that you were just
[5:04] Speaker 3: talking about. Conversely, there's a certain physical reality, right If
[5:08] Speaker 3: the input costs are going up by twenty thirty percent,
[5:11] Speaker 3: both in terms of energy and in raw materials in
[5:15] Speaker 3: certain segments of say the semiconductor business, that will have
[5:18] Speaker 3: an inflationary impact, and it will have a diluted impact
[5:21] Speaker 3: on earnings for those who are affected.
[5:23] Speaker 2: Speaking of earnings, we heard from three of the big
[5:25] Speaker 2: banks today, JP Morgan, Chase, Wells Fargo, and City Group.
[5:29] Speaker 2: In the case of JPM and Wells, a little bit
[5:32] Speaker 2: of concern here about compression of net interest income. How
[5:37] Speaker 2: do you feel about the banks right now?
[5:40] Speaker 3: Operationally?
[5:41] Speaker 4: We don't.
[5:42] Speaker 3: We see the banks as being extremely healthy. And you
[5:46] Speaker 3: know there's again it's banking is a very is a
[5:48] Speaker 3: diversified sector. Right, There's many branches within what we might
[5:53] Speaker 3: call banking. But what we what we actually see is
[5:57] Speaker 3: a number of banks, and you know, JP Morgan being
[5:59] Speaker 3: one of them profiting from the transaction. The increase in
[6:04] Speaker 3: transaction intensity attached to the volatility in the market. Right,
[6:07] Speaker 3: So volatility is actually good news for a lot of banks,
[6:10] Speaker 3: and so if we just look at the under the
[6:12] Speaker 3: underlying fundamentals, there's reason to support the positive story that
[6:18] Speaker 3: you're hearing about banks like JP Morrey.
[6:20] Speaker 2: One of the other things that became apparent if you
[6:22] Speaker 2: look at some of the bank results, little cause for
[6:24] Speaker 2: alarm when it comes to the issue of private credit.
[6:28] Speaker 2: And yes, there have been some concerns about the quality
[6:30] Speaker 2: of loans, especially those made to firms that may be
[6:34] Speaker 2: a little vulnerable to AI disruption. I'm thinking of software
[6:38] Speaker 2: firms in particular. How are you feeling about the private
[6:41] Speaker 2: credit story?
[6:43] Speaker 3: We see it as part of a broader secular story
[6:45] Speaker 3: around not so much private credit per se, but around
[6:49] Speaker 3: how companies are managing volatility broadly, both through the lens
[6:53] Speaker 3: of investment, so investors in those companies and consumers of
[6:58] Speaker 3: in this case, private credit. And what we're seeing is,
[7:01] Speaker 3: on the one hand, companies that are exposed to the
[7:05] Speaker 3: risks attached to private credit, for example, are facing real
[7:10] Speaker 3: uncertainty that they didn't face even maybe eighteen months ago.
[7:14] Speaker 3: And you start to see hints and echoes of the
[7:17] Speaker 3: two thousand and eight financial crisis. Different different factors at play,
[7:21] Speaker 3: but some similar dynamics in terms of opaque investment vehicles
[7:25] Speaker 3: that are hard to trace and therefore risky in their
[7:28] Speaker 3: own right. But what's new and what's evolving, and this
[7:31] Speaker 3: is true within private the private credit realm, but also
[7:35] Speaker 3: more broadly in industry is companies are leveraging technologies like
[7:40] Speaker 3: AI in particular to get smarter about diagnosing those risks
[7:45] Speaker 3: and even anticipating and neutralizing those. So a lot of
[7:48] Speaker 3: the companies that we advise that are either again consumers
[7:51] Speaker 3: of that of private credit or those who are exposed
[7:55] Speaker 3: to it from an investment perspective, are just far more
[8:00] Speaker 3: resilience in their portfolios as a result of the underlying
[8:03] Speaker 3: tool sets that are applying to some of these questions.
[8:05] Speaker 3: So we're thinking that resilience is going to win the
[8:09] Speaker 3: day there.
[8:10] Speaker 2: Steve, I'd like to get your take on the inflation story,
[8:13] Speaker 2: particularly since last week's reading on CPI showed that surge
[8:18] Speaker 2: in month on month headline inflation of around nine tenths
[8:21] Speaker 2: of one percent. Yeah, a lot of that can be
[8:23] Speaker 2: tied to skyrocketing prices for gasoline, but today's reading on
[8:28] Speaker 2: PPI showed a gain that was far less than expected.
[8:32] Speaker 2: I think the headline increase was only a half of
[8:34] Speaker 2: one percent and core PPI of just a tenth of
[8:37] Speaker 2: one percent. How are you viewing the inflation story right now?
[8:42] Speaker 3: Of course, you know it's a crystal ball question that
[8:44] Speaker 3: has a lot of uncertainty attached to it. But through
[8:48] Speaker 3: the lens of the global supply chain discussion that we
[8:51] Speaker 3: started with today, our general take is it's too early,
[8:56] Speaker 3: Not that it's you know, it's always helpful to have
[8:58] Speaker 3: a read of indicators as they issued from a real
[9:04] Speaker 3: time basis, But think back to what we were just
[9:09] Speaker 3: talking about in terms of the physical supply chains and
[9:12] Speaker 3: how long it takes for the pricing signal to propagate
[9:16] Speaker 3: through the chain. Right. So you know, if you're talking about,
[9:20] Speaker 3: for example, chemicals, right the possibility of a price increase
[9:27] Speaker 3: as a result of feedstock, the cost increase of feed
[9:30] Speaker 3: stocks attached to increase in oil prices splat oil prices,
[9:34] Speaker 3: that you may not see that for weeks or even
[9:37] Speaker 3: months showing up in say the cost of fertilizer or
[9:42] Speaker 3: or worst case, even a supply disruption that prevents volume
[9:46] Speaker 3: from making it through to the market, and then maybe
[9:50] Speaker 3: months more before you start to see that show up
[9:53] Speaker 3: in the food prices. Because fertilizer gets planted and attached
[9:57] Speaker 3: to the soil and then eventually food growth. But that
[10:00] Speaker 3: can take half a year, right, So, whether you're talking
[10:03] Speaker 3: about that industry or you're talking about consumer electronics or automotive,
[10:08] Speaker 3: there's a physical lead time attached to when you have
[10:11] Speaker 3: these shocks and when it actually shows. The cost increases
[10:14] Speaker 3: show up across those different sectors. And so we think
[10:18] Speaker 3: it's a little early to start declaring victory as a
[10:20] Speaker 3: result of what happened yes in yesterday's news. We need
[10:24] Speaker 3: to take a forward looking view and that's what again
[10:26] Speaker 3: technology helps with.
[10:27] Speaker 2: So you seem to be pretty cautious. And I'm curious
[10:30] Speaker 2: about the strategy that you've adopted right now. Is it
[10:34] Speaker 2: defensive at all?
[10:35] Speaker 3: If you think about it through the lens of portfolio.
[10:39] Speaker 3: It's a portfolio strategy, so diversifying risk is the name
[10:42] Speaker 3: of the game, and having applying advanced analytics to make
[10:47] Speaker 3: sure that the portfolio is balanced for the risk profile
[10:49] Speaker 3: that we have. So balance is better the better way
[10:52] Speaker 3: to describe it than defensive or offensive. What that looks
[10:58] Speaker 3: like in the realm of operations is it's kind of
[11:00] Speaker 3: it's analogous to buying, picking stocks. But in this case,
[11:04] Speaker 3: if you're say marisk right in the shipping industry or
[11:08] Speaker 3: your BMW in the automotive industry, regardless of where you
[11:12] Speaker 3: have physical supply chain, what you're doing is you're taking
[11:15] Speaker 3: you're diversifying your supply base, your diversify, You're you're hedging
[11:19] Speaker 3: with additional inventory. You are potentially choosing amongst a broader
[11:25] Speaker 3: set of routes that you ship through.
[11:27] Speaker 4: So not just maybe.
[11:28] Speaker 3: The the horror moves straight, but also around the cape
[11:32] Speaker 3: of good Horn despite increasing costs. So companies are taking
[11:35] Speaker 3: this more sort of diversified portfolio approach to their physical
[11:39] Speaker 3: supply chains. And that's what we're recommending and advising. Uh,
[11:43] Speaker 3: even if there's maybe a small increase in direct cost,
[11:46] Speaker 3: the benefits in terms of flexibility and resilience is well
[11:50] Speaker 3: worth the investment given the volatility that we're experiencing.
[11:53] Speaker 2: So what are you measuring, I mean, or what are
[11:55] Speaker 2: you looking to capture in your data analysis?
[11:59] Speaker 3: Yes, so at the end of the day, it's still
[12:02] Speaker 3: if you're talking about enterprises profit and loss a forwardlooking
[12:06] Speaker 3: view of earnings, it's also the ability to in extreme
[12:11] Speaker 3: shocks to sustain operations. Right, So it's business continuity, some
[12:16] Speaker 3: mix of financial indicators as well as operational that we
[12:22] Speaker 3: advise our clients to use. And it's also what we
[12:25] Speaker 3: see the leaders amongst those names I just mentioned doing.
[12:28] Speaker 2: Steve will leave it there. Thank you so very much.
[12:30] Speaker 2: Steve Hawkman there. He is partner also managing director for
[12:33] Speaker 2: the Americas at Nagaro. Steve joining from Hood, Oregon here
[12:37] Speaker 2: on the Daybreak Asia Podcast. Welcome back to the Daybreak
[12:46] Speaker 2: Asia Podcast Time Doug Krisner. So, the US and Iran
[12:50] Speaker 2: are looking to arrange a second round of peace talks
[12:52] Speaker 2: in the coming days. We are told the objective is
[12:55] Speaker 2: to hold more discussions before the currencies fire expires next week. Now,
[13:00] Speaker 2: one proposal is to return to Pakistan, where those initial
[13:04] Speaker 2: negotiations were held last weekend, although some other venues are
[13:08] Speaker 2: being considered as well. That's where we begin our conversation
[13:12] Speaker 2: with Mara Rudman. Mara is a practitioner Senior Fellow at
[13:15] Speaker 2: the Miller Center at the University of Virginia. She spoke
[13:19] Speaker 2: with Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud Watts and Avril Holm.
[13:22] Speaker 1: We are hearing from an interview with Fox News President
[13:28] Speaker 1: Trump saying that he sees the view as very close
[13:30] Speaker 1: to being over.
[13:33] Speaker 4: We would hope that he's right.
[13:34] Speaker 1: But do you think that the two sides are any
[13:36] Speaker 1: closer given that the failed talks in Islamabad seemed to
[13:39] Speaker 1: hinge on some pretty big gaps in terms of what
[13:43] Speaker 1: Tehran and what Washington wants.
[13:46] Speaker 4: So I hope he is right. I hope we are closer.
[13:49] Speaker 5: It would not be surprising that one marathon, twenty one
[13:53] Speaker 5: hour session that did not have a lot of prep
[13:56] Speaker 5: time leading up to it was not successful. It could
[13:59] Speaker 5: be a building block for further conversation, and that appears
[14:03] Speaker 5: to be what's going on. That's certainly what's been leaked
[14:06] Speaker 5: out in various ways. For example, the gap between a
[14:10] Speaker 5: commitment on three to five years of no nuclear program
[14:15] Speaker 5: versus what the United States was supposedly asking for, which
[14:17] Speaker 5: was twenty years, So there's room there to get to agreement. Also,
[14:24] Speaker 5: the talks that Israel's having with Lebanon not enough but
[14:28] Speaker 5: a start, looks to be an attempt to get us
[14:32] Speaker 5: closer to reaching agreement. But we've been here before and
[14:36] Speaker 5: not been able to close the deal.
[14:40] Speaker 1: Do you see the potential for major compromises on either side?
[14:44] Speaker 1: We know that around side the naval blockade is obviously
[14:48] Speaker 1: going to have significant economic consequences if it continues. But
[14:52] Speaker 1: we also have talked about in the past about this
[14:53] Speaker 1: being a regime that's built and now doubled down for survival.
[14:57] Speaker 1: Are they likely to let go of these nuclear ambitions.
[15:01] Speaker 5: No, They're not likely to let go of them entirely.
[15:05] Speaker 5: It seems, again, if the reporting is correct, that what
[15:08] Speaker 5: the Trump team was asking for was not a forever commitment.
[15:14] Speaker 5: It was a generational commitment of twenty years. But they
[15:16] Speaker 5: Iran might well see that as a negotiating position in
[15:20] Speaker 5: terms of compromise.
[15:21] Speaker 4: To get to any kind of deal, In.
[15:23] Speaker 5: Every negotiation, both sides need to give, and both sides
[15:28] Speaker 5: need to feel like they've gotten something from the deal
[15:33] Speaker 5: the agreement in the end, and I would expect that
[15:36] Speaker 5: that dynamic is at play.
[15:38] Speaker 4: As you noted, Iran has already showed.
[15:40] Speaker 5: That they really they've had a lot of experience in
[15:44] Speaker 5: asymmetric warfare and they're continuing to use that to their advantage.
[15:48] Speaker 5: And even what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz is
[15:51] Speaker 5: not entirely clear in terms of what the United States
[15:54] Speaker 5: is able to stop what Iran is doing there. And
[15:57] Speaker 5: the risk of greater confrontation and is hot.
[16:03] Speaker 6: What about if any third parties can spa a bit
[16:06] Speaker 6: of compromise for either the US or the Iran side.
[16:10] Speaker 6: For the Saudis, for example, do you think they play
[16:13] Speaker 6: a role in some ways, given how they also want
[16:16] Speaker 6: the US to perhaps end this blockade.
[16:20] Speaker 4: Go again.
[16:21] Speaker 5: Reporting on where the Saudis are on any given point
[16:27] Speaker 5: since this conflict began has not been entirely clear, so
[16:30] Speaker 5: I'm not sure on that. I would expect that there
[16:33] Speaker 5: are a number of different international actors and actors in
[16:36] Speaker 5: the region, including the Saudis, who are talking to President Trump.
[16:40] Speaker 4: And the people around him. Right now.
[16:42] Speaker 5: We're in the very odd dynamic though, of Pakistan and
[16:45] Speaker 5: China being the two countries that seem to be in
[16:48] Speaker 5: the position of maximizing a work toward getting to an agreement,
[16:53] Speaker 5: which for the United States has got to be or
[16:58] Speaker 5: ought to be a fairly uncomfortable to be in.
[17:03] Speaker 6: How do you think Trump is viewing this at this stage,
[17:06] Speaker 6: I mean, at a time where he's meeting as well
[17:09] Speaker 6: the US ambassador to China. How do you think he's
[17:12] Speaker 6: going to be framing this, perhaps also not just in
[17:15] Speaker 6: the context of the war, but as the terror ructions
[17:18] Speaker 6: roil on in the background.
[17:21] Speaker 4: Yeah.
[17:21] Speaker 5: Well, it's a good question, but I think trying to
[17:25] Speaker 5: anticipate what is going on in President Trump's mind at
[17:28] Speaker 5: any given moment is something of a fool's errand so
[17:32] Speaker 5: I'm not going to try to do that. But I
[17:34] Speaker 5: think what he may try to say is he's going
[17:37] Speaker 5: to paint wherever we are when he is going into
[17:40] Speaker 5: the meeting with you as a win, as a victory
[17:43] Speaker 5: for the United States.
[17:44] Speaker 4: By we, I mean the United States, and he.
[17:47] Speaker 5: Will wrap whatever set of facts he has, or he'll
[17:51] Speaker 5: reshape facts to where they can support an argument that
[17:55] Speaker 5: the United States has done well in terms of starting
[18:01] Speaker 5: this conflict and whether or not it's brought to an
[18:03] Speaker 5: end by the time he's meeting with she.
[18:07] Speaker 3: Mara.
[18:07] Speaker 1: One of the other sticking points is the inclusion or
[18:09] Speaker 1: exclusion of iranium proxies. Right, Pakistan certainly thought that they
[18:13] Speaker 1: were included. Iran would be arguing otherwise. We're also seeing
[18:18] Speaker 1: that talks are starting to get underway between Israel and
[18:21] Speaker 1: Lebanon on Hesbela are not actually invited to those meetings.
[18:25] Speaker 1: How fruitful do you think those discussions will be? And
[18:28] Speaker 1: I guess by extension how closely aligned are Israel in
[18:33] Speaker 1: the US right now in terms of their peace objectives, so.
[18:40] Speaker 4: As I have seen it from the beginning of this conflict.
[18:44] Speaker 5: While the United States and Israel have worked together militarily
[18:48] Speaker 5: very clearly, I'm not sure that the ultimate oals were
[18:51] Speaker 5: ever completely aligned, and so that tension has probably increased.
[19:00] Speaker 5: But I don't think we were perfectly aligned from the
[19:02] Speaker 5: beginning in terms of Israel talking to Lebanon.
[19:07] Speaker 4: Listen.
[19:07] Speaker 5: I think almost any time when two parties who have
[19:11] Speaker 5: not had diplomatic relations with each other are in conversation,
[19:15] Speaker 5: that is a good thing when tension, and particularly so
[19:19] Speaker 5: when there's the kind of conflict going on that there
[19:22] Speaker 5: is now. The problem is, as you've noted, that the
[19:25] Speaker 5: government of Lebanon does not have control over Hesbelah, has
[19:29] Speaker 5: not for some time or Hesbelo's actions, and so at
[19:34] Speaker 5: some point, dealing with what it will take to shut
[19:39] Speaker 5: down Hesbela's actions against Israel in a way that Israel's
[19:43] Speaker 5: comfortable with to then also scale back Israel's actions in
[19:47] Speaker 5: Lebanon is going to be critical, and that's not something
[19:50] Speaker 5: that the government of Lebanon itself can do.
[19:58] Speaker 4: What about the guests.
[19:59] Speaker 1: Joseph Dawes has dot negotiations getting to a past deal
[20:01] Speaker 1: very different things. If the regime stays intact, intact in
[20:07] Speaker 1: its current form and leadership in Iran, can you see
[20:11] Speaker 1: a region where these proxies where Hesblah give up alms.
[20:20] Speaker 5: With the regime intact, they're going to continue the regime
[20:23] Speaker 5: in Iran. They will continue to look for every opportunity
[20:26] Speaker 5: they have to have an asymmetric advantage, and the use
[20:30] Speaker 5: of proxies, whether it's Hutu's in Yemen or hes Blah
[20:35] Speaker 5: in Lebanon, is part of that. One question would be
[20:39] Speaker 5: whether you can significantly degrade and I believe that has
[20:42] Speaker 5: happened to a large extent the strength of those proxies.
[20:46] Speaker 5: That certainly happen in terms of hes Bla. I think
[20:48] Speaker 5: with the Hutu's some but it's less clear. So in
[20:51] Speaker 5: the same in a similar way to you know, if
[20:54] Speaker 5: you can get them to freeze and no longer for
[20:58] Speaker 5: a period of time their use of any kind of
[21:01] Speaker 5: nuclear program and Aron, that's a plus. If you with
[21:06] Speaker 5: the degrading of the ability to use militia's like Hesbla,
[21:12] Speaker 5: that's a plus for the rest of the world.
[21:14] Speaker 4: The question is what the period of time is and.
[21:18] Speaker 5: What happens next, which is also, honestly with Hesbelah, part
[21:21] Speaker 5: of the argument for trying to do things that would
[21:23] Speaker 5: strengthen the government of Lebanon, the current government of Lebanon,
[21:27] Speaker 5: and strengthen their ability to ultimately work to sideline to
[21:31] Speaker 5: shut down Hesblah.
[21:32] Speaker 2: That was Maara Rudman, practitioner, Senior Fellow at the Miller
[21:35] Speaker 2: Center at the University of Virginia, speaking with Bloomberg TV
[21:39] Speaker 2: host Heidi Stroud Watts and Davril Hong, bringing you their
[21:42] Speaker 2: conversation here on the Daybreak Asia Podcast. Thanks for listening
[21:48] Speaker 2: to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast.
[21:53] Speaker 2: Each weekday, we look at the story shaping markets, finance,
[21:56] Speaker 2: and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You can find us
[21:59] Speaker 2: on app, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere
[22:03] Speaker 2: else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for insight on
[22:07] Speaker 2: the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia.
[22:11] Speaker 2: I'm Doug Prisoner and this is Bloomberg

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