# Stocks Fall on Inflation Worries, Samsung Profit Up Almost Nine-Fold

An episode of [Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1663863437), 8 Oct 2026, 19 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/58e85be7-dbb5-4043-afed-af80014dc0b3/29591fb4-eeb9-4567-ab20-b4dd00345909/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=27143354-63aa-4ac5-965d-af80014dc0d3

Business and finance news from the Asia-Pacific. Asian stocks retreated for a second day and Treasuries edged lower as rising oil prices fueled concerns that inflation may stay elevated and nudge central banks to raise interest rates. MSCI's Asia Pacific equities index fell 0.9%, with nine of its 11 industry groups in the red. Benchmarks in Japan, South Korea and Singapore declined, along with mainland China as trading resumed after a holiday. We speak to Bloomberg MLIV Strategist Mark Cranfield. And - Samsung Electronics Co. reported a nearly nine-fold rise in quarterly operating profit, though that was still just shy of sky-high expectations elevated by relentless spending on the AI infrastructure buildout. The world's largest memory chipmaker posted a record preliminary operating profit of 107.4 trillion won ($80.1 billion) for the quarter through September. But even those record results still fell short of the average analyst's forecast. Revenue came to 195 trillion won, also lower than expectations. Shares were flat during early morning trading in Seoul Thursday. Bloomberg TV host Haidi Stroud-Watts spoke to Sanjeev Rana, CLSA Head of North Asia Semiconductors Research. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.
[0:04] Speaker 2: Podcasts.
[0:05] Speaker 1: Radio.
[0:06] Speaker 2: News.
[0:11] Speaker 1: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. Equity
[0:14] Speaker 1: markets in the Asia-Pacific are drifting a bit lower following
[0:18] Speaker 1: a retreat for U.S.
[0:19] Speaker 2: Shares.
[0:20] Speaker 1: We had the S & P and the NASDAQ comp
[0:22] Speaker 1: each down from record highs. For a look at the
[0:24] Speaker 1: price action in the APAC region, let's bring in Bloomberg's
[0:27] Speaker 1: Mark Cranfield. Mark is a markets live strategist, and he
[0:31] Speaker 1: joins from our studio in Singapore. Thank you for being here.
[0:35] Speaker 1: Where do you want to begin? I'm inclined to address
[0:38] Speaker 1: the Samsung earnings and the fact that the stock seems
[0:40] Speaker 1: to be displaying a somewhat muted response. Is there a
[0:44] Speaker 1: big picture thing that we need to establish here to
[0:47] Speaker 1: create a bit of context for today's trading?
[0:50] Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it is. It's a good reminder that
[0:53] Speaker 3: so much of the AI-related story is really priced for perfection.
[0:58] Speaker 3: investors have a very high threshold for being impressed. Even though,
[1:02] Speaker 3: as you said, Samsung beat their numbers by eight times
[1:07] Speaker 3: compared to a year ago, which on the face of
[1:09] Speaker 3: it seems extraordinary. The absolute numbers are absolutely massive. And
[1:14] Speaker 3: yet it was a fraction below analyst estimates, which is
[1:18] Speaker 3: partly the reason for the muted response in the market. Now,
[1:21] Speaker 3: what you're seeing with Samsung will probably be reflected in
[1:23] Speaker 3: the major tech companies in the United States. and also
[1:27] Speaker 3: in the rest of Asia as well, the big chip
[1:29] Speaker 3: makers there as well. So investors have driven up the
[1:32] Speaker 3: prices of these companies and the indices, both Korea, Taiwan,
[1:36] Speaker 3: for example, in Asia are running about 70% up this
[1:39] Speaker 3: year after tremendous periods last year as well. So markets
[1:44] Speaker 3: are anticipating that there will be amazing earnings from these companies,
[1:48] Speaker 3: but they still need to see it and preferably even
[1:51] Speaker 3: something better for the outlook as well to be reassured
[1:54] Speaker 3: that this insatiable demand for memory chips especially is going
[1:58] Speaker 3: to go way on beyond 2027 people are pretty much
[2:02] Speaker 3: expecting it they now want to know is it going
[2:04] Speaker 3: to extend into 2028 as well some of the things
[2:07] Speaker 3: from bloomberg intelligence suggests it will do that the the
[2:10] Speaker 3: chip demand is going to go on for years and
[2:11] Speaker 3: years so that all needs to come through and this
[2:14] Speaker 3: earning season is a very important one both in the
[2:16] Speaker 3: us and across the.
[2:17] Speaker 1: World So if there is a mild disappointment, as there
[2:21] Speaker 1: was in the case of Samsung, does it necessarily mean
[2:23] Speaker 1: that foreign investors are inclined to begin pulling a little
[2:27] Speaker 1: bit of money out of the South Korean market? They
[2:30] Speaker 1: have already.
[2:31] Speaker 3: So that's probably why Samsung is only having a modest reaction.
[2:35] Speaker 3: Samsung stock is down about 20% from the highs that
[2:37] Speaker 3: we saw just a few weeks ago. So they've gone
[2:40] Speaker 3: through their big churn already, both SK Hynix, Samsung, some
[2:44] Speaker 3: of the other makers in Korea as well. They've already
[2:48] Speaker 3: been hit pretty hard. Of course, there was a big
[2:50] Speaker 3: situation with the leveraged ETFs and too much hot money
[2:53] Speaker 3: flowing in from retail investors. That pretty much has washed out.
[2:56] Speaker 3: And that's partly why you're seeing a muted reaction. Not
[3:00] Speaker 3: so much the case in Taiwan. So Taiwan Semiconductor, for example,
[3:04] Speaker 3: when they do report their earnings, they need to be
[3:06] Speaker 3: stellar because we haven't seen that kind of a sell-off
[3:10] Speaker 3: in Taiwan so much. And also for some of the
[3:12] Speaker 3: AI-related names in Japan, similar situations. They haven't had a
[3:16] Speaker 3: big setback. And so, again, the pricing is very high.
[3:21] Speaker 3: Expectations are very high. So they also need to deliver.
[3:24] Speaker 3: And it will be interesting to see what happens in
[3:26] Speaker 3: the next couple of weeks with that as well.
[3:27] Speaker 1: But as I listen to you, you keep coming back
[3:30] Speaker 1: to the semiconductor complex, which to the point that you
[3:33] Speaker 1: made at the top of our conversation, it's all about
[3:35] Speaker 1: this AI trade still.
[3:38] Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, things are very concentrated and we keep
[3:40] Speaker 3: on seeing these reports that even in the US markets
[3:43] Speaker 3: that the S & P 500, for example, is being
[3:45] Speaker 3: driven by a relatively small collection of major names. But
[3:49] Speaker 3: that has been on and off the case, really, for
[3:51] Speaker 3: the past four or five years. We've often gone through
[3:54] Speaker 3: bouts where we said, oh, how can the indices continue
[3:57] Speaker 3: to perform so well when it's such a few names
[4:00] Speaker 3: which are driving it? But what we are seeing from
[4:03] Speaker 3: those large companies or those mega companies is is that
[4:08] Speaker 3: their earnings numbers, we've just never seen the like of
[4:11] Speaker 3: it before. But the amount of profitability being generated by
[4:14] Speaker 3: the likes of NVIDIA, Micron Technologies, these kind of companies,
[4:18] Speaker 3: we have never seen in the history of stock markets
[4:20] Speaker 3: such huge generative profits, which is partly why people are
[4:25] Speaker 3: not so concerned about 5% treasury yields. If you're an
[4:28] Speaker 3: equity investor 20 years ago, the minute 5% yields came
[4:32] Speaker 3: on the radar, you would say, oh, this is big
[4:34] Speaker 3: competition for the stock market. We should take a pullback.
[4:37] Speaker 3: But you're seeing that these companies are able to generate
[4:40] Speaker 3: such incredible profits that 5% is immaterial within their world.
[4:44] Speaker 3: So stocks can continue to do okay. Of course, there
[4:47] Speaker 3: are a number of stocks which are not performing so well.
[4:49] Speaker 3: And those are the ones that are worrying some people
[4:52] Speaker 3: because they are affected by the higher yields.
[4:54] Speaker 1: We used to talk about kind of the consensus estimate
[4:57] Speaker 1: and then the whisper number, you know, kind of that
[4:59] Speaker 1: secret figure that companies were expected to top in order
[5:04] Speaker 1: to really be demonstrating effectiveness in terms of how the
[5:08] Speaker 1: equity market is valuing these businesses. If you had to
[5:11] Speaker 1: talk about what we're likely to see for third quarter results,
[5:14] Speaker 1: are we going to be more reliant on that so-called
[5:17] Speaker 1: whisper number, which is to say it's a foregone conclusion
[5:21] Speaker 1: that the market is expecting these companies to surpass consensus estimates?
[5:26] Speaker 3: We're hearing from Bloomberg Intelligence that for the S &
[5:30] Speaker 3: P 500, for example, we're expecting about a 25% bump
[5:31] Speaker 3: in the overall profit levels of the company's report there. Significantly,
[5:38] Speaker 3: it's these outlook projections and what the CEOs and the
[5:43] Speaker 3: CIOs have to say about the continuing demand for AI-related products.
[5:48] Speaker 3: That seems to be a very big, important factor for investors.
[5:53] Speaker 3: So when someone like Jensen Huang gets up and says, well,
[5:56] Speaker 3: I see demand in my order books here are so
[6:00] Speaker 3: good for 2027, 2028. If he steps up and says that,
[6:04] Speaker 3: that seems to reassure people that, yes, even though the
[6:08] Speaker 3: numbers seem extraordinary now, you expect them to dip at
[6:11] Speaker 3: some point. It isn't going to happen in the next
[6:13] Speaker 3: few months. That seems to be the point at which
[6:16] Speaker 3: investors decide whether to stay with the trade or not.
[6:20] Speaker 3: So they want to hear it from the likes of NVIDIA,
[6:22] Speaker 3: from Meta, from Microsoft, Alphabet. They want them to be
[6:26] Speaker 3: reassured that what they're seeing now is going to extend
[6:29] Speaker 3: well into next year and hopefully even further beyond that.
[6:32] Speaker 1: What could spoil this scenario? Is it a story about
[6:36] Speaker 1: higher interest rates? Would that be enough to bedevil the situation?
[6:40] Speaker 1: Or is there something else that perhaps would have a
[6:43] Speaker 1: greater negative impact?
[6:45] Speaker 3: Interest rates themselves, the negativity there will come from the
[6:48] Speaker 3: pace of change in interest rates. So Federal Reserve have
[6:52] Speaker 3: raised interest rates. Look as though they may do again
[6:55] Speaker 3: in December. But investors globally are... under the impression that
[6:59] Speaker 3: it's going to be a gradual process, both for the Fed,
[7:02] Speaker 3: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan. The major central banks
[7:05] Speaker 3: are going to keep raising interest rates if inflation stays sticky,
[7:08] Speaker 3: but at a gradual pace. Equities can pretty much handle that.
[7:11] Speaker 3: What they can't handle too much, as we've been seeing
[7:13] Speaker 3: in Europe in the past couple of weeks, is sudden
[7:16] Speaker 3: rapid sell-offs in bond markets. We've seen it in France,
[7:19] Speaker 3: to some extent in Italy as well. That really shocks
[7:22] Speaker 3: the equity markets in Europe. They're not performing so well
[7:25] Speaker 3: compared to Asia and the United States. Aside from that, obviously,
[7:29] Speaker 3: we come back to things like geopolitics, which have been
[7:32] Speaker 3: in the background. Again, we had that big blow up
[7:34] Speaker 3: earlier in the year when the US first went into Iran,
[7:37] Speaker 3: upset markets everywhere. It settled down a bit. Oil prices
[7:40] Speaker 3: are still around $ 100, which is pretty high by recent standards.
[7:46] Speaker 3: So if we get a deterioration later in the year
[7:49] Speaker 3: in that situation, that may well hit sentiment right across
[7:53] Speaker 3: the board. And if it comes in the last few
[7:56] Speaker 3: weeks of the year, then you might see an outsized reaction.
[7:59] Speaker 3: Because by then, people are trying to think of whether
[8:01] Speaker 3: they want to be positioned for the beginning of the
[8:04] Speaker 3: following year. Well, if you get an external shock coming
[8:07] Speaker 3: in late November or December, that's a very bad timing
[8:10] Speaker 3: from that point of view, and it could get quite messy.
[8:12] Speaker 1: So when you talk about positioning, do you include some
[8:14] Speaker 1: form of hedging strategy? And if so, what does that
[8:17] Speaker 1: look like? How would you hedge yourself in a market
[8:20] Speaker 1: such as this?
[8:21] Speaker 3: Well, if you look at volatilities on equity industries at
[8:24] Speaker 3: the moment, they're very low. which suggests there isn't much
[8:27] Speaker 3: hedging going on at all. People seem to be quite
[8:29] Speaker 3: comfortable being long equities and not taking too much against that.
[8:34] Speaker 3: So you get a pickup in the VIX index, for example.
[8:37] Speaker 3: There will be a sudden jump as people scramble for
[8:39] Speaker 3: downside protection. That's usually one of the first places where
[8:43] Speaker 3: you see any evidence that people are taking it seriously,
[8:46] Speaker 3: that you could get a big setback in market. You
[8:48] Speaker 3: get higher implied volatilities on put options on the VIX index.
[8:54] Speaker 3: signs that people are buying these options, which protect them
[8:58] Speaker 3: against a sizable 10 to 20% decline in markets, not
[9:01] Speaker 3: just a small move, but a quite a sizable We're
[9:04] Speaker 3: not seeing any of that at the moment, which suggests
[9:07] Speaker 3: it will be a pretty abrupt shock if it does happen.
[9:09] Speaker 1: So, we had minutes from the last Fed meeting in
[9:12] Speaker 1: the U.S. on Wednesday, and not surprisingly, they were a
[9:15] Speaker 1: little hawkish. Many policymakers moved to kind of guard against
[9:20] Speaker 1: the risk of intensifying inflation. It's been a little curious
[9:23] Speaker 1: here in the bond market over the last few days.
[9:25] Speaker 1: That risk seems to have been dialed down slightly. Is
[9:30] Speaker 1: the bond market right here? Are inflation risk abating slightly?
[9:35] Speaker 1: Or are we potentially setting up for something that could
[9:38] Speaker 1: be more serious in terms of disruptive behavior in the
[9:42] Speaker 1: bond market?
[9:43] Speaker 3: I think we've come to a valuation compromise in the
[9:46] Speaker 3: treasury market, especially. We're seeing a little bit in Japan
[9:49] Speaker 3: as well. So we had a 10-year treasury auction last week.
[9:53] Speaker 3: Yields have been pushed up significantly going into that auction.
[9:58] Speaker 3: The yield's high enough to produce very good demand for
[10:03] Speaker 3: those bonds, and then yields came back down a bit afterwards.
[10:05] Speaker 3: So that's a good setup. We've got a 30-year auction today,
[10:08] Speaker 3: also very important in the US market as well. It
[10:11] Speaker 3: looks as though, again, that yields are backed up enough
[10:13] Speaker 3: to make a solid auction. People have been very worried
[10:16] Speaker 3: about that combination of a 10- and a 30-year auction
[10:19] Speaker 3: in the same week. It looks as though we're at
[10:22] Speaker 3: a point where there are relative value people saying, yes,
[10:24] Speaker 3: yields have backed up quickly enough to a point where
[10:27] Speaker 3: I want to put some money to work here. That
[10:29] Speaker 3: will be a sigh of relief right across the Treasury market.
[10:33] Speaker 3: And then when you factor that against those Fed minutes,
[10:35] Speaker 3: which suggest the Fed is not in a panic situation,
[10:38] Speaker 3: they're not going to be rushing in October to raise
[10:40] Speaker 3: interest rates again. That seems very unlikely. They're going to
[10:43] Speaker 3: take their time. They're going to look at the data
[10:44] Speaker 3: over the next few weeks. Big CPR report coming up
[10:47] Speaker 3: next week, providing that things are, if inflation stays high,
[10:52] Speaker 3: but relatively stable, we'll probably get another rate hike in December.
[10:57] Speaker 3: All of that seems to be getting factored in and
[10:59] Speaker 3: the market can live with it. So that's the current situation.
[11:02] Speaker 3: Something that falls out of that scenario is what we
[11:05] Speaker 3: need to worry about in terms of the bond market.
[11:07] Speaker 1: Okay, we'll leave it there. Mark, it's always a pleasure.
[11:09] Speaker 1: Thank you so very much. Bloomberg's Mark Cranfield, Markets Live strategist,
[11:13] Speaker 1: joining from our studio in Singapore here on the Daybreak
[11:16] Speaker 1: Asia podcast. Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm
[11:27] Speaker 1: Doug Krisner. And as I mentioned a moment ago, Samsung
[11:31] Speaker 1: Electronics posted record profit for its latest quarter. These results
[11:35] Speaker 1: reflect surging prices for memory chips, and that is tied
[11:39] Speaker 1: to the relentless spending that we have seen on AI infrastructure.
[11:43] Speaker 1: Samsung's operating profit increased more than eight times the level
[11:47] Speaker 1: seen a year ago. And that's where we begin our
[11:50] Speaker 1: conversation with Sanjeev Rana. Sanjeev is head of North Asia
[11:53] Speaker 1: Semiconductors Research at CLSA. He spoke with Bloomberg TV host
[11:58] Speaker 1: Heidi Stroud-Watts.
[11:59] Speaker 4: Really great to have you with us, Sanjeev. So, clearly,
[12:01] Speaker 4: investors going into this were looking for evidence that the
[12:04] Speaker 4: cycle has further to go, that this profit boom has
[12:07] Speaker 4: resilience and staying power. Did they get that, even if
[12:10] Speaker 4: operating profit came in shy of expectations?
[12:17] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[12:18] Speaker 2: Actually, numbers were in line with our expectations and also
[12:23] Speaker 2: some of the recent expectations in the market. So this
[12:28] Speaker 2: is not a surprise, definitely not a negative one. We
[12:32] Speaker 2: had expected around $ 107 trillion in operating profit. The company
[12:36] Speaker 2: delivered on that expectation. We remain bullish on the memory
[12:39] Speaker 2: cycle and we remain bullish on Samsung Electronics. There is
[12:45] Speaker 2: a very strong demand visibility. Demand continues to exceed supply
[12:49] Speaker 2: and HPM pricing is poised for a big step up
[12:52] Speaker 2: in 2027. So we see potential for substantial shareholder returns
[12:59] Speaker 2: as well.
[13:03] Speaker 4: So overall, this is obviously a very solid result. At
[13:07] Speaker 4: the same time, though, if you take a look at
[13:08] Speaker 4: how the stock is trading, it's about 20% off the peak.
[13:11] Speaker 4: And in a broader sense, you're seeing investors really take
[13:14] Speaker 4: that preference of Taiwan over Korea.
[13:17] Speaker 1: Why is that?
[13:21] Speaker 2: I think there are some concerns about the memory cycle.
[13:24] Speaker 2: You know, some in the market think that memory prices
[13:28] Speaker 2: are close to peaking. As a result, margins will be
[13:31] Speaker 2: peaking as well. But I would say that industry has
[13:35] Speaker 2: fundamentally changed. These suppliers are signing long-term contracts with customers,
[13:40] Speaker 2: you know, four- to five-year contracts. And so, long-term demand
[13:45] Speaker 2: visibility is improving through these LTAs. And I think market
[13:50] Speaker 2: eventually is going to recognize that these earnings of these
[13:55] Speaker 2: companies are sustainable compared to the past cycles when they
[13:59] Speaker 2: used to crash after hitting a peak. So, we expect 40%
[14:05] Speaker 2: EPS growth for operating profit growth for 2027 and another 15%
[14:10] Speaker 2: growth in 2028. In fact, our view is that memory
[14:13] Speaker 2: pricing is likely to remain strong in the next several
[14:18] Speaker 2: years given like the very strong demand and limited supply.
[14:27] Speaker 4: The market is clearly not quite buying the view as
[14:30] Speaker 4: you've spoken about before in terms of these longer term agreements,
[14:33] Speaker 4: the price agreements, all of that is there. Do you
[14:36] Speaker 4: expect Samsung management perhaps to talk up a bit more
[14:39] Speaker 4: their scenarios going into 2027, 2028 and beyond?
[14:46] Speaker 2: Yes. Today is just a preliminary earnings release. So, operating
[14:51] Speaker 2: profit number is what the market wanted to see. More
[14:55] Speaker 2: details will be released on October 29th when the companies
[14:59] Speaker 2: will be holding its earnings call. So, we expect more
[15:04] Speaker 2: details on the long-term contracts as well as HBM price
[15:09] Speaker 2: negotiations for 2027, CapEx plans, and of course, the shareholder returns.
[15:17] Speaker 4: Where do you see the next catalyst for Samsung? Because
[15:20] Speaker 4: there are some advantages there, the HBM for e-market. Is
[15:24] Speaker 4: that going to be one of the main drivers of
[15:26] Speaker 4: enthusiasm for investors, do you think?
[15:31] Speaker 2: Right. So, actually, Samsung's HBM execution after facing some rough
[15:37] Speaker 2: times in 2023 to 2025 actually is seeing very good
[15:45] Speaker 2: production yields. And shipment growth this year is expected to
[15:51] Speaker 2: be about 3x versus last year. And we expect another 50%, 60%
[15:56] Speaker 2: growth for HBM shipments next year. So Samsung has been
[16:02] Speaker 2: able to turn around its HPM business, I would say.
[16:07] Speaker 2: And the company is gaining market share. Last year, their
[16:10] Speaker 2: HPM market share was around 20%. This year, we are
[16:13] Speaker 2: expecting 30% plus. And next year, it will be somewhere
[16:18] Speaker 2: between 35% to 40%. So their HPM execution actually has
[16:23] Speaker 2: been very good. And moreover, the HBM price negotiations for
[16:29] Speaker 2: 2027 are also turning out to be quite in company's favor.
[16:35] Speaker 2: We expect significant price increases for HBM in 2027. As
[16:41] Speaker 2: a result, HBM will be the major profit growth driver
[16:45] Speaker 2: for the company next year.
[16:49] Speaker 4: There's also been some currency headwinds as well. Do these
[16:54] Speaker 4: matter to you in terms of how worrisome they could become?
[16:57] Speaker 4: And what other aspects are you looking at in terms
[16:59] Speaker 4: of potential downside risks?
[17:03] Speaker 2: Right. So, the Korean won has strengthened, you know, in
[17:08] Speaker 2: the last two, three months. And that has led to
[17:11] Speaker 2: some series of earnings downgrades for the company. But now,
[17:15] Speaker 2: like in October, what we're hearing is that pricing in
[17:19] Speaker 2: fourth quarter for DRAM and NAND is turning out to
[17:22] Speaker 2: be better than previous expectations. And HPM pricing for next
[17:26] Speaker 2: year is also most likely down. to trend higher than
[17:30] Speaker 2: the previous consensus expectations. As a result, I expect further
[17:34] Speaker 2: consensus earnings upgrades for the company. So while forex-related risks
[17:41] Speaker 2: are well understood and priced in, I think the upside
[17:44] Speaker 2: from better-than-expected pricing is yet to be reflected in the
[17:49] Speaker 2: consensus estimates.
[17:50] Speaker 1: That was Sanjeev Rana, head of North Asia Semiconductors Research.
[17:54] Speaker 1: at CLSA, speaking to Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud-Watts, bringing
[17:58] Speaker 1: you their conversation here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Thanks
[18:04] Speaker 1: for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
[18:08] Speaker 1: Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the stories shaping markets, finance,
[18:13] Speaker 1: and geopolitics in the Asia-Pacific. You can find us on Apple, Spotify,
[18:17] Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen.
[18:21] Speaker 1: Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves
[18:24] Speaker 1: from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Krisner,
[18:29] Speaker 1: and this is Bloomberg.

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